1990～2015年长江流域县域粮食生产与粮食安全时空格局演变及影响因素分析

长江流域粮食生产与经济发展在全国均占据重要地位，研究近25年长江流域粮食生产与粮食安全时空格局演变及影响因素，可为我国粮食安全及流域可持续发展提供科学依据。基于1990、1995、2000、2005、2010和2015年长江流域县域粮食产量、户籍人口数据、农业化肥使用量和粮食播种面积（740个区县），运用粮食变化指数、探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）、重心转移模型和空间误差模型(SEM)研究其时空格局演变特征及影响因素。研究结果表明：（1）1990～2015年长江流域粮食产量总体呈增长趋势，东西差异显著，年均增长率为0.5%，上中下游依次为0.6%、0.8%和 -0.7%；上游为劣势区，中游为优势增长区，下游为减弱区。（2）粮食产量冷点聚类一直分布在上游地区，聚类格局在2000年左右由西南边界的“L”型转变为西北倒“L”型；下游江淮地区与太湖平原的热点集聚在2000年后消失，且长期处于减产状态；人均粮食占有量与粮食产量时空格局演变呈较高的空间相似性，2000年为流域粮食生产与粮食安全格局发生变化的转折点。（3）1990～2015年长江流域一般余粮县和重要余粮县重心呈现出“南下西移”态势，缺粮县和供需紧平衡县重心发生了“从南向北、从西向东”迁移变化。（4）粮食播种面积和农业化肥施用量对粮食生产均具显著性正向效益。     

21世纪长江流域农业发展趋势及对策研究

长江流域农业资源丰富,农产品产量大,农产品加工业发达,农业、农村经济水平较高,农业在全国占有重要的地位。８０年代以来,长江流域农业、农村经济结构逐渐优化,农业生现代化装备水平逐步提高,但部分农产品产量（包括商品粮）在全国的地位下降,流域内省际间农村、农业经济差距扩大。据此本文提出长江流域农业发展的主要对策：加大中上游于区的投入力度,进上步调整产业结构,加快名特优产品的产业化开发,加大农业科技投入力     

长江流域自然保护区建设现状与生态保护

长江流域生态环境多样，生物种类与群落类型繁多，已建立的多种类型的自然保护区对保护各类重要生态系统及其环境、拯救濒于灭绝的生物物种及自然遗迹具有重要作用。采用叠图法、数学统计等方法，对长江流域自然保护区的数量、面积、类型、分布、管理等基本情况进行了识别、整理、统计分析与制图，结合长江流域自然保护区分布特点，对长江流域水资源开发利用中生态制约问题进行了初步讨论。至2008年12月长江流域共建立各种类型、不同级别的自然保护区827个，保护区总面积约占长江流域面积的19.9%，高于全国平均水平，长江流域初步形成了类型较齐全、布局较合理、功能较健全的自然保护区网络。长江流域水力资源主要分布于长江上游区，而长江流域自然保护区的重点分布区在长江上游地区，因此长江上游区水电开发需关注现有各级各类自然保护区的生态保护。〖     

长江流域的空间结构研究

在认识空间结构内涵与确定研究范围的基础上，运用主成分和聚类分析方法，获得了长江流域的空间分异状况。长江流域空间结构符合核心 边缘结构模式，包括3个一级核心、8个二级核心、两大跨省成长三角、1条主轴、2条辅轴、3条地方轴、1个外围区和1个边缘区。长江流域空间结构的演变，经历了低水平的离散型阶段、极化发展的非均衡阶段、扩散的多核非均衡阶段，未来将向区域一体化的高水平均衡阶段发展。从聚散原理、空间相互作用和国家宏观区域发展战略等3方面，分析了长江流域空间结构的演变机制。长江流域空间结构的优化，要从内部要素与外部力量两方面入手做3件事情。一要加快单个节点的发展和尽快形成核心区域，尤其是上游地区要构建一个以成渝为双核的兼顾南北较大范围的成长多边形；二要加快东西通道的建设和注重主轴与辅轴间的连接通道的构建或完善；三要注重基于市场一体化的区域空间治理体制的创新.     

21世纪前期长江流域粮食产业发展对策

长江流域光、热、水、土等农业资源时空组合优势明显,土地自然生产力较高,粮食生产在全国占有重要地位。21世纪初中国加入WTO以后,长江流域作为“大米带”的优势将更为明显。长江流域粮食产业发展除应考虑国家宏观发展战略,需要采用与国家粮食产业发展相协调的政策体系外,还应解决自身存在的总量不稳、产业化程度低、产业效益差以及品种结构不合理等问题。     

长江流域资源环境研究信息系统的研制和应用

介绍了长江流域资源与环境研究信息系统的建立与应用。长江流域资源与环境研究信息系统包括4个数据库：（1）长江流域资源与环境信息库,包括长江流域的自然，自然保护区，行政区，社会，经济等方面的信息；（2）长江流域资源生态环境科学文献数据库，收录了有关研究长江流域水，土地，能源，破产，人力等各类资源的保护与开发，生态保护与建设，环境保护与重要，大型工程建设中的移民问题，城市与城市化，农业与农村发展，区域经济发展，环境变化与生物多样性等的文献；（3）长江流域自然灾害数据库，收录了长江流域发生物气象灾害，地质灾害，生物灾害等各类自然灾害；（4）长江流域网站导航，收集了有关长江流域的信息网站，配合用户友好的检索系统，用户可以快捷地找到所需信息。     

长江流域可持续农业发展管理机制研究

文章首先阐述了建立可持续农业发展管理机制的必要性与原则 ,在分析长江流域可持续农业发展面临的问题及其原因的基础上 ,提出了长江流域可持续农业发展管理机制的具体内容     

长江流域的自然保护区发展与生态环境建设

长江流域的自然保护区占全流域面积的5．74％，比我国自然保护区 占国土面积的比例低1．9个百分点。保护区数量在80年代增幅最大，面积在90年代增幅最大，这种不同步性在一定程度上反映出保护区经营管理更加注重建立较多的大保护区，保护较大的生态系统。本流域的各类自然保护区的数量和面积与流域内自然生态系统类型的丰富性和珍稀特种的多样性直接相关。生态系统类的自然保护区多分布在长江一线以南，形成4个明显的集中分布地带。野生生物类自然保护区在川西高原、川黔湘接壤带和鄱阳湖附近比较集中。川西南滇西北、川西高山峡谷区、川鄂湘黔接壤区、南岭山地北部等6个区域成为长江流域自然保护的关键区域。长江流域生态环境建设中必须注意资源植物的持续利用、防护林的质量和生态平衡等问题。     

长江流域湿地保护、修复与生态管理策略

从长江流域生态系统长期演化的视角，分析了长江流域自然与湿地环境演变特征，归纳了长江流域湿地资源概况，分别总结了长江源区、三峡库区湿地区、中游湖泊群以及长江三角洲湿地的区域性特征及其面临的威胁因素，论述了典型重要湿地区域湿地保护与生态工程建设的示范案例，在此基础上探讨了长江流域湿地保护、修复与生态管理的对策和建议，旨在助力于长江大保护，为长江流域湿地的保护和科学管理提供依据。     

长江流域粮食资源及生产发展方向

论述长江流域发展粮食生产的重要性，分析粮食资源分布，生产状况，生产结构和地域差异，指出粮食合理布局的方向，提出以粮食集中产区为重点，建设长江流域粮食生产专业化地并以建设商品粮基地为建带突破口。     

WSSD 2002, Latin America and Brazil: Biodiversity and Indigenous People

Latin America comprehends notable variations in terms of natural environment, availability of natural resources, living standards, and demographic patterns. Latin America is a mosaic of cultures, post- and pre-Columbian. The rich variety of life forms discovered and described by chroniclers and traveling naturalists in the Neotropics contributed to the proposal, in mid-XVIIIth century, of a new system of classification and a scientific code of nomenclature for all organisms. Biodiversity was, for many centuries, a source of resources to be exploited in natura. In scientific circles, its inventory became the domain of taxonomists. But modern technology showed how important the miriad of life forms really are as sources of chemical molecules to be engineered as drugs and reassembled as novel manufactured products. We are on the brink of a new agricultural and medical revolution, thanks to the techniques of genetic engineering, which will lead eventually to the elimination of hunger and malnutrition.In this essay, the Brazilian environmental and social heterogeneity will serve as an example to illustrate some key points, which have influenced sustainability policies. The Amazon deforestation and indigenous knowledge (IK), subjects often associated with areas of high biodiversity, are usually the focus of environmental debates. The importance of IK in integrating development, reducing poverty and sustainability are considered together with the intellectual property rights of native populations.In the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) Implementation Plan, a few paragraphs were dedicated to Latin America, because of the pre-existing Action Platform on the Road to Johannesburg 2002, approved in Rio de Janeiro in October 2001. This paper calls attention to the need to draw up specific environmental policies for a region which shows an extremely high cultural and biological diversity, associated with a high availability of forests and water, among other resources.     

湘鄂赣农业资源与专业化区域化方向

湘鄂赣地理位置优越,农业资源丰富,稻谷、茶叶、麻类、棉花、油料、柑桔和淡水产品、禽蛋、肉类等在我国居有重要的地位,因此,大力发展三省农业生产,对我国人民实现小康生活具有战略意义。今后,要加速专业化区域化进程。我们找出生产潜力所在:改造低产田、低产园、低产水面;开发“三高”技术;开垦荒地、荒山、荒水;适当提高复种指数。通过建设,三省主要农产品将自给有余,还可满足国内外市场的需要。努力方向:高效农业开发——综合农业开发,吨粮田开发,玉米带开发,饲料稻开发,山区开发;合理布局农业生产;深化农业商品基地建设,发展综合利用,搞活商品流通;全面提高农业现代化水平,加强农业社会服务体系。     

Ethnosciences––A step towards the integration of scientific and indigenous forms of knowledge in the management of natural resources for the future

Integration of indigenous knowledge and ethnoscientific approaches into contemporary frameworks for conservation and sustainable management of natural resources will become increasingly important in policies on an international and national level, both in countries that are industrialised and those that have a developing status. We set the scene on how this can be done by exploring the key conditions and dimensions of a dialogue between ȁ8ontologiesȁ9 and the roles, which ethnosciences could play in this process. First, the roles of ethnosciences in the context of sustainable development were analysed, placing emphasis on the implications arising when western sciences aspire to relate to indigenous forms of␣knowledge. Secondly, the contributions of ethnosciences to such an ȁ8inter- ontological dialogueȁ9 were explored, based on an ethnoecological study of the encounter of sciences and indigenous knowledge in the Andes of Bolivia, and reviewed experiences from mangrove systems in Kenya, India and Sri Lanka, and from case-studies in other ecosystems world-wide, incl. Australia, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Nepal, Niger, Philippines, Senegal, South-Africa and Tanzania.     

Paradoxical ozone associations could be due to methyl nitrite from combustion of methyl ethers or esters in engine fuels

We review studies of the effects of low ambient ozone concentrations on morbidity that found a negative coefficient for ozone concentration. We call this a Paradoxical Ozone Association (POA). All studies were in regions with methyl ether in gasoline. All but one study carefully controlled for the effects of other criterion pollutants, so the phenomenon cannot be attributed to them. One was in southern California in mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Because ozone is created by sunlight, the most plausible explanation for a POA would be an ambient pollutant that is rapidly destroyed by sunlight, such as methyl nitrite (MN). A previously published model of engine exhaust chemistry suggested methyl ether in the fuel will create MN in the exhaust. MN is known to be highly toxic, and closely related alkyl nitrites are known to induce respiratory sensitivity in humans. Support for the interpretation comes from many studies, including three linking asthma symptoms to methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the observation that a POA has not been seen in regions without ether in gasoline. We also note that studies in southern California show a historical trend from more significant to less significant ozone-health associations. The timing of those changes is consistent with the known timing of the introduction of gasoline oxygenated with MTBE in that region.     

Prognosis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystems by means of universal kriging

The use of quantitative data for constructing prognostic maps of the dynamics of ecosystem degradation and restoration by nonlinear simulation methods is a topical field of landscape ecology. This method of dynamic cartography is based on fiberwise comparison of data on the state of Chernye Zemli (the Kalmyk Republic, Russia) in different years and the detailed analysis of the period on which the prognosis was based. For this purpose, materials of repeated aerial and satellite photography obtained during a long period (1954–1993) were used. Comparison of maps characterizing the dynamics of Chernye Zemli between 1958 and 1993 allows prognostic electronic maps for the next 10–15 years (with a five-year interval) to be drawn and land prognosis for the next 20–30 years (1998–2023) to be obtained. Deceased     

Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis

Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.     

Household water in rural asia: a case study of the construction of a piped water system in Bangui,Ilocos Norte,Philippines

In early 1980 an extension agent was assigned to the rural municipality of Bangui, Ilocos Norte, Philippines to work on development projects – in particular the improvement of the supply of safe water for drinking and sanitation. After many months of visiting spring sites and meeting with community leaders, a small part of the municipality was selected to build a gravity fed piped water system. Although the system took many months to plan, identify funding and construct, the 600 community members were ultimately rewarded with house to house connections that enabled them to achieve per capita water consumption levels above the minimum levels recommended by the World Health Organization. Of course, money was critical to ensure the project’s success, but many other factors played an equally critical role. For instance, without the active participation of the community and the unwavering support of the community leadership the project would not have survived the initial planning stage. Also, the extension agent played a critical role by acting as a conduit between funding agencies, the Bureau of Public Works and the community. The primary lesson to be learned from this experience is that the success of rural development projects is largely driven by the synergy between the community, technical support, financial support, and agents of change such as extension agents. If any of these ingredients had been lacking, the project result would likely have been far different.     

Geographic Variation in the Seasonal Reproductive Strategy of the Mite Varroa jacobsoni in the Honeybee Nest

Variation in the reproduction of Varroa jacobsoni mite was studied in relation to the expansion of the range of its parasitism on the honeybee. Geographic differences in the seasonal dynamics of mite reproduction in the nests of bee families were revealed. Variation in the sex ratio of mites and the factors inhibiting their reproduction at the northern boundary of the honeybee range are considered. The forms of parthenogenetic reproduction in V. jacobsoni are discussed.     

Long-term increase in climatic dryness in the East-Mediterranean as evidenced for the island of Samos

The Eastern Mediterranean region is among the regions which were predicted to become drier under IPCC climate scenarios. Here, we document a gradual reduction of rainfall and tree growth and the loss of rural springs during the last decades of the twentieth century. Years with severe drought are associated with very low tree growth (dendrochronology) and dry falling of springs as evidenced by interviews with local stakeholders. The paper discusses the consequences of accelerating drought on natural vegetation and agriculture and points at the interaction with fire dynamics and economy, both likely to enhance the drought effect.