系留气球备件需求确定方法研究

目的确保系留气球保障性,提高其使用效率。方法针对系留气球的特点,研究运用保障性分析法和相似产品法预测备件品种,采用相似经验法、按比例供应法和模型计算法确定备件需求量,得出一套预测系留气球备件品种和数量的程序和方法,并给出计算实例。结果系留气球备件的配置应首先确定备件的品种,在此基础上确定备件需求量,并配置在相应的维修级别。结论该系留气球备件的预测程序和方法适用于工程实际,可以应用于系留气球的保障性分析。     

使用与维修工作分析在系留气球研制中的应用

目的确保系留气球在使用与维修过程中能提供与其相匹配的保障资源。方法根据使用与维修工作分析的特点,分别采用确定保障工作项目、细化保障工作、确定保障资源、汇总资源的步骤进行分析,最后进行综合分析确定系留气球所需的保障资源。结果通过该方法在实际研制型号中的运用,给出了系留气球使用与维修工作分析的流程、数据记录、以及保障资源汇总的具体要求和方法。结论使用与维修工作分析可解决系留气球所需保障资源配置的合理性与科学性,适用于工程实际。     

海洋环境下舰载系留气球缆绳与球体的动态仿真分析

目的研究舰载系留气球在海洋环境下对系留缆绳以及球体姿态的影响。方法采用ADAMS二次开发宏命令来建立离散化系留缆绳模型,并将离散化系留缆绳几何模型在相邻微段圆柱间添加Bushing轴套力,设置相关刚性系数和阻尼系数获得完整特效的缆绳模型。同时根据船用起重机的相关设计规范,考虑船体横摇5°和纵摇2°等运动影响,分析船体运动情况可知,纵摇时系留缆绳下端系固点位置较之横摇波动幅度更大,对缆绳的影响更大,因此主要研究船体纵摇2°情况下对于系留缆绳的影响,并分析对比船体静止以及船体纵摇2°情况下对于舰载系留气球系留缆绳以及球体姿态的影响。结果获得了在船体静止状态以及纵摇激励影响下舰载系留气球系留缆绳张力变化曲线以及球体姿态变化曲线。船体纵摇2°情况时,系留缆绳在仿真开始阶段承受冲击载荷较大,峰值达到150 kN,随后缆绳载荷基本在25 k N上下浮动。张力变化曲线整体呈现周期变化,周期与船体纵摇周期一致,为10 s。球体横滚角和航向角变化与船体静止状下仿真结果基本一致,球体俯仰角变化幅度较大。结论船体纵摇时会对系留缆绳带来较大的冲击载荷,同时对球体的俯仰姿态产生影响。该仿真结果对舰载系留气球的可行性分析和适装性研究以及系留缆绳的选用具有较大的指导意义。     

系留气球整流罩散热数值仿真

目的解决系留气球整流罩散热设计问题。方法通过建立三维几何和离散模型,利用FLUENT开展热-流数值仿真计算,结合编制UDF同时实现整流罩外部对流、外部太阳辐射和内部对流、内部红外辐射和内部热源的实时耦合计算(双向耦合)。筛选环境最严酷状态(风速、温度和太阳辐射),对系留气球整流罩在3000 m和6000 m高度的散热性能进行分析。结果按最严酷状态进行分析后,在3000 m和6000 m工作高度,必须引入外界空气向整流罩内强制通风对流,才能保证任务设备工作环境要求。升空后,由于环境温度下降,整流罩散热增加,任务设备(雷达)散热所需引入外界通风量减少。3000 m^-3 m/s工况下,在整流罩进气口质量流量为1.0 kg/s时,整流罩内部维持在39~40℃;6000 m^-3 m/s工况下,在整流罩进气口质量流量为0.5 kg/s时,整流罩内部维持在25.5~26℃。整流罩上强制通风进气口应布设在任务设备发热部件下方,同时在整流罩上部和后部开设专用排气口,保证整流罩内部空气流通。结论双向耦合计算方法可快速获取系留气球整流罩在各状态条件下的散热详情,为整流罩散热设计及内部任务设备的热设计提供详实设计依据,相比工程估算和单向耦合更加贴近实际状态,计算精度更高。双向耦合计算方法和仿真数据可为同类型系留气球整流罩散热设计提供参考。     

系留气球囊体材料快速老化试验研究

目的估算某系留气球在某地区的使用寿命。方法分析环境因素对系留气球的影响,确定采用太阳辐射快速老化的方法对囊体材料开展老化试验研究,时间为3000 h。采用等时间间隔法对试验件进行测试,间隔时间为375 h,测试9次,每组试验件为5件,试验数据采用5个试验件的平均值。对老化前后囊体材料的表面状况、拉伸强度、拉伸强度变化率及断裂伸长率进行分析。结果试验之后,囊体材料表面发黄,有粉末状的颗粒,拉伸强度为395.2N/cm,下降了56.01%,断裂伸长率在3.9%～7.7%间波动变化。将实验室老化辐射量等同于室外紫外辐射量,根据室外紫外辐射量约占室外自然老化太阳辐射总量8%及某地区全年太阳辐射总量,估算囊体材料的实验室老化相当于室外自然老化的年限,结合囊体材料设计限制条件,评估出了系留气球的使用寿命。结论通过太阳辐射快速老化的方法对囊体材料开展老化试验研究,可估算出某系留气球在某地区的使用寿命。     

气温垂直分布的测量——系畄气球测温法

大气温度的垂直分布对污染物的输送和扩散有很大的影响,逆温层的高度分布对工业烟囱高度的选取有很大的实际价值。而测定大气温度垂直分布的方法很多。这里介绍一种使用系留气球携带测温仪测量大气温度垂直分布的方法,通常被称为系留气球测温法。     

系留气球软式索具加速老化试验研究

介绍了导致软式索具老化的主要环境因素和机理,采用4种环境试验对系留气球软式索具进行了抗老化性能研究。通过测量试样试验后的断裂强力,计算试件断裂强力下降率,评定了软式索具的抗老化性能,确定了软式索具对环境影响因素的敏感顺序。     

城市环境变化对气象探测要素的影响分析研究

依靠实验数据,真实反应了气象环境变化与气象探测工作环境、城市发展等因素有关,而且与气象探测时的环境变化相关,为合理化的探测气象环境因素,分析当前大气环境质量逐渐降低的原因,进而对城市环境变化因子对气象环境的探测做进一步的研究,研究中以实际试验数据为依托,构建了城市环境变化因子,例如四季不同的气象环境、冬季的温度、湿度、风速等对于气象探测的影响因素,得出了城市环境中雾霾天气对气象探测要素影响程度较大的结论,供相关专业工作者参考。     

采用探测气球研究大气污染

大气污染的一些物质的化学反应、影响范围及其消散程度等迄今仍然有许多是不清楚的。 1976年夏天美国在工业集中地区升起了一些装备有现代化气象仪器的探测气球,气球沿主风向移动,收集大气污染物的有关化学和物理过程的资料。     

低空温度遥测仪简介

在大气扩散研究中,为了解边界层中温度和风等要素的分布情况,可采用直接探测或间接探测(遥感)两种方法。直接探测法其仪器结构较简单,精度较高,是当前国内研究的主要探测手段。其中系留气球携带仪器的探测方法,简便易行,高度可达五百米以上,应用很普遍。1976年前,国内几个有关单     

徐州市气象因子与空气质量和PM_（10）浓度的相关性分析

通过对徐州市空气质量及其对应的气象因子进行统计分析,得出空气质量与相对湿度、风速,降水等气象因子的关系。分析特殊气象天气出现时空气中主要污染物PM10的变化规律.得到一些初步结果,为减轻和防止污染提供参考。     

上海地区大型公共建筑中水工程成本效益分析

针对上海地区大型公共建筑中水回用问题,采用蒙特卡罗模拟技术,对其全生命周期成本效益进行了分析,并讨论了水价对中水工程成本效益的影响.成本计算结果表明生物接触氧化工艺在全生命周期内总成本集中在240.27~276.00万元之间.不同水价方案计算结果表明,在上海现行水价的条件下,生物接触氧化工艺全生命周期效益主要集中在-53.98~-37.54万元之间,50年内不存在投资回收期;当水价为3.8元/t时,生物接触氧化工艺的全生命周期效益主要集中在23.03~51.94万元之间,投资回收期为18~19a;当水价为6.10元/t时,工程效益主要集中在192.47~263.36万元之间,投资回收期为4~5a.因此单从中水工程的成本效益角度来看,上海现行水价偏低,中水回用工程缺乏推广优势,建议适当提高水价或对中水回用工程进行补贴.     

Normalised Australian insured losses from meteorological hazards: 1967–2006

Since 1967, the Insurance Council of Australia has maintained a database of significant insured losses. Apart from five geological events, all others (156) are the result of meteorological hazards—tropical cyclones, floods, thunderstorms, hailstorms and bushfires. In this study, we normalise the weather-related losses to estimate the insured loss that would be sustained if these events were to recur under year 2006 societal conditions. Conceptually equivalent to the population, inflation and wealth adjustments used in previous studies, we use two surrogate factors to normalise losses—changes in both the number and average nominal value of dwellings over time, where nominal dwelling values exclude land value. An additional factor is included for tropical cyclone losses: this factor adjusts for the influence of enhanced building standards in tropical cyclone-prone areas that have markedly reduced the vulnerability of construction since the early 1980s.Once the weather-related insured losses are normalised, they exhibit no obvious trend over time that might be attributed to other factors, including human-induced climate change. Given this result, we echo previous studies in suggesting that practical steps taken to reduce the vulnerability of communities to today's weather would alleviate the impact under any future climate; the success of improved building standards in reducing tropical cyclone wind-induced losses is evidence that important gains can be made through disaster risk reduction.     

Sensitivity analysis of surface ozone to emission controls in Beijing and its neighboring area during the 2008 Olympic Games

The regional air quality modeling system RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System)-CMAQ (Community Multi-scale Air Quality modeling system) is applied to analyze temporal and spatial variations in surface ozone concentration over Beijing and its surrounding region from July to October 2008. Comparison of simulated and observed meteorological elements and concentration of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ozone at one urban site and three rural sites during Olympic Games show that model can generally reproduce the main observed feature of wind, temperature and ozone, but NOx concentration is overestimated. Although ozone concentration decreased during Olympics, high ozone episodes occurred on 24 July and 24 August with concentration of 360 and 245 μg/m³ at Aoyuncun site, respectively. The analysis of sensitive test, with and without emission controls, shows that emission controls could reduce ozone concentration in the afternoon when ozone concentration was highest but increase it at night and in the morning. The evolution of the weather system during the ozone episodes (24 July and 24 August) indicates that hot and dry air and a stable weak pressure field intensified the production of ozone and allowed it to accumulate. Process analysis at the urban site and rural site shows that under favorable weather condition on 24 August, horizontal transport was the main contributor of the rural place and the pollution from the higher layer would be transported to the surface layer. On 24 July, as the wind velocity was smaller, the impact of transport on the rural place was not obvious.     

牧户对气候变化的感知与适应——以内蒙古四子王旗查干补力格苏木为例

通过在内蒙古自治区四子王旗查干补力格苏木的实地调查,并对四子王旗气象数据与调研得到的牧户感知数据进行对比分析,结果表明：牧民对气温变化的感知较对降水变化的感知准确度高,对风沙的感知与实际差距较大。在灾害造成的影响感知方面,牧户对干旱造成的影响感知最为深刻。牧户为适应气候变化已自主采取了多种应对措施,在实地调研中识别出至少22 种自主适应措施,采用较多的适应措施是多储备草料、减少牲畜存栏、建暖棚、借款和不让后代养羊,其中最重要的适应措施是多储备草料。自主适应行为的评估和筛选结果显示：多储备草料、建暖棚、减少牲畜存栏、引进新品种、借贷款、外出打工是牧民认为较好的自主适应措施。与之相配套的政策需求为：贷款支持、青贮窖补贴、暖棚补贴、更精确的天气预报和病虫害预报、牧业保险、新品种的技术培训、新品种的市场对接、职业技能培训、完善的社会保障体系等。这些政策可以增强牧民适应气候变化的能力,同时减缓牧民生计脆弱性。     

Conceptual study on incorporating user information into forecasting systems

The purpose of improving weather forecast is to enhance the accuracy in weather prediction. An ideal forecasting system would incorporate user-end information. In recent years, the meteorological community has begun to realize that while general improvements to the physical characteristics of weather forecasting systems are becoming asymptotically limited, the improvement from the user end still has potential. The weather forecasting system should include user interaction because user needs may change with different weather. A study was conducted on the conceptual forecasting system that included a dynamic, user-oriented interactive component. This research took advantage of the recently implemented TIGGE (THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble) project in China, a case study that was conducted to test the new forecasting system with reservoir managers in Linyi City, Shandong Province, a region rich in rivers and reservoirs in eastern China. A self-improving forecast system was developed involving user feedback throughout a flood season, changing thresholds for flood-inducing rainfall that were responsive to previous weather and hydrological conditions, and dynamic user-oriented assessments of the skill and uncertainty inherent in weather prediction. This paper discusses ideas for developing interactive, user-oriented forecast systems.