中澳适应气候变化比较研究

气候变化对中澳两国均是面临的严峻挑战,适应气候变化已成为两国的迫切任务之一。本研究主要比较了中澳两国在适应气候变化领域的机制安排、政策与行动,并选择敏感脆弱的水资源领域为研究分析对象。基于对比研究,本文提出几点政策建议：一是加强国际合作,提高应对气候变化能力;二是推进适应气候变化综合管理决策能力建设,努力构建适应气候变化的创新管理机制;三是尽快建立适应气候变化的专项基金;四是推动地方适应气候变化能力建设;五是学习澳大利亚将气候变化风险和适应气候变化纳入与水资源保护和水环境管理相关的基础设施工程项目环境影响评价的实践经验,开展相关研究和试点。     

气候变化对钱塘江流域水资源带来的威胁

文章以钱塘江流域水资源作为研究对象,介绍了钱塘江流域自然地理与水文气象数据概况,分析了钱塘江流域水文气象要素变化特征分析以及其气候变化对钱塘江流域水资源带来的影响,气候变化情景下水资源适应对策。     

面对气候变化下洪灾胁迫城市适应行动思考

气候变化对城市的影响日益显著。洪涝、高温、台风等极端气候事件对城市基础设施、居民生活及社会经济系统造成直接冲击,导致经济损失日趋严重。本文从适应气候变化的角度探讨国际典型城市应对洪水灾害的适应行动思路,并讨论了国内城市适应行动存在的不足,包括气候风险评估不够精细、与适应行动衔接不紧密,部门/领域适应行动与部门常规任务未有效融合,缺少对适应目标与成效的量化评估等。鉴于此,面对气候变化影响下城市洪涝灾害的严重胁迫,中国城市适应行动应从气候风险精细评估入手,量化适应目标,推进部门常规任务与适应措施的深度融合,提升气候变化适应能力。     

基于SWAT-WEAP联合模型的西辽河支流水资源脆弱性研究

气候变化与人类活动对水循环及水资源安全的影响是近代水科学面临的主要科学问题。以西辽河支流老哈河流域为研究区,探索了一种水文模型耦合方法(SWAT-WEAP),以水短缺量为指标,同等考虑水资源供给端与需求端,对气候变化与不同人类利用情景下水资源系统脆弱性进行定量分析,结果表明:①暖干化气候情景比暖湿化气候情景明显加剧了老哈河流域水资源系统的脆弱性,降水减少10%导致的水短缺量比降水导致10%所缓解的短缺量要多31.17%;②气候变化对流域农业灌溉用水影响最大,对城乡生活用水和工业用水影响相对很小;③老哈河流域水资源系统脆弱性的主要驱动力之一源自农业不合理灌溉,发展畜牧业、 改变种植结构与高效节水灌溉是缓解水短缺、 降低水资源系统脆弱性最为有效的措施,也是应对气候变化最为有效的方式;④基于供水端的措施(如水库)在暖干化气候时由于水资源供给来源受限,其缓解作用有所减弱。     

长江三角洲地区气候变化影响和适应对策综合评价研究

该课题是中国国家环保总局和加拿大环境部在全球气候变化影响研究方面的一个国际合作项目。是我国首次进行未来气候变化对区域社会、经济和环境影响的案例研究。该项研究首先分析了气候变化对水资源、农业、工业、能源及海平面上升的影响 ,并建立了相关的影响模型。采用加拿大气候变化对麦肯兹流域的影响研究 (ＭａｃｋｅｎｚｉｅＢａｓｉｎＩｍｐａｃｔｓｔｕｄｙ)课题的土地利用综合评价框架 (ＬＩＡＦ) ,进行了气候变化对长江三角洲环境经济影响的综合评价研究 ;并提出了适应对策及综合评价模型研究 ;建立了一套估算经济损失的方法。例如…     

土地利用/覆盖变化与气候变化定量关系研究进展

当前,以全球变暖为主要特征的气候变化对人类社会的可持续发展构成了严重威胁,如何有效适应气候变化成为人类面临的共同挑战。研究表明,全球变暖的主要驱动力是人类活动造成的温室气体排放和土地利用方式改变。过去,科学界致力于削减全球温室气体排放,而土地利用与气候变化的关系,以及如何适应气候变化,没有引起足够重视。论文重点阐述土地利用/覆盖变化对区域气候的生物地球物理影响机制,总结土地利用/覆盖与气候变化定量关系的研究进展,得出现阶段研究存在四点不足:①缺乏景观格局与气候过程关系的认识;②较少考虑人类活动对下垫面的影响;③区域气候模式存在局限;④适应气候变化的研究不足。针对上述问题,论文指出基于可持续性的土地系统设计是适应气候变化的有效途径,也是未来气候变化领域的研究重点。     

极端气候事件使水资源管理面临严峻挑战——西南地区大旱的启示

在气候变化背景下,干旱等极端气候事件的强度和发生频率在全球许多地区呈上升趋势。目前中国西南地区发生的持续大旱,一方面佐证了气候变化这一客观事实,另一方面也使我们不得不审视水资源管理领域存在的不足。而把适应气候变化融入未来的水资源管理,将成为应对干旱等极端气候事件的重要战略选择。     

加强国家重点生态功能区建设积极应对气候变化

随着气候风险、损失损害及安全问题在我国日益突出,积极应对气候变化,推进绿色低碳发展成为国家战略。国家重点生态功能区作为生态环境脆弱区和气候变化敏感区,在承担生态环境保护主体功能的同时启动应对气候变化工作,实现区内环境治理、经济发展及气候治理协同增效势在必行。基于此,本文分析了国家重点生态功能区应对气候变化面临的形势,从减缓和适应两个维度提出了国家重点生态功能区应对气候变化的重点领域和保障措施。     

加强气候风险应对 助力实现碳达峰、碳中和

全球气候变化对自然生态系统和人类社会的影响正在加速,冰层融化、海平面上升、极端天气等气候风险持续上升,成为当今国际社会共同面临的重大挑战,也显著影响着各国社会经济发展和国家安全。加强气候风险管理,适应气候变化、保障气候安全已成为世界各国的共识。近年来我国适应气候风险特别是应对极端灾害的能力得到明显提升,在生产力布局、基础设施建设、重大项目规划中均考虑到气候风险,努力提高农业、林业、水资源等重点领域和沿海、生态脆弱地区适应气候变化和气候风险的水平。但目前仍有很大的提升空间,尤其在碳达峰、碳中和背景下,建立气候风险评估机制,完善气候风险防范机制,与世界各国凝心聚力建立起应对气候风险的长效机制,是保障国家经济社会发展和人民生活稳定的必然选择,也是推进可持续发展,助力实现碳达峰、碳中和的必经之路。     

试论新疆气候对水资源的影响

该文采用数理统计方法,根据对1958～1997年完整、准确的气象、水文资料的最新计算结果,揭示出新疆气候特征、气候变化及其对水资源影响的基本事实和统计规律,并对未来气候变化趋势及其对水资源的影响进行了初步讨论。     

中国气候变化影响研究概况

介绍了目前我国在未来气候变化影响研究方面的概况，气候影响研究采用的方法多为政府间气候变化专业委员会（ＩＰＣＣ） 第二工作组提出的气候变化影响评价方法。未来气候变化影响研究是在大气中ＣＯ２ 浓度加倍，或气温、降水变化的情景下，进行未来农业、林业、水资源、生态环境以及海平面上升等方面的潜在影响研究，其中有模型研究、实验室研究、宏观研究和适应对策研究等。这些研究采用的未来气候情景多为ＧＣＭ 模型预测的气候情景     

中国气候变化影响研究概况

介绍了目前我国在未来气候变化影响研究方面的概况,气候影响研究采用的方法多为政府间气候变化专业委员会(IPCC)第二工作组提出的气候变化影响评价方法。未来气候变化影响研究是在大气中C0₂浓度加倍,或气温、降水变化的情景下,进行未来农业、林业、水资源、生态环境以及海平面上升等方面的潜在影响研究,其中有模型研究、实验室研究、宏观研究和适应对策研究等。这些研究采用的未来气候情景多为GCM模型预测的气候情景。      

Building responsiveness to climate change through community based adaptation in Bangladesh

This article explores the drivers, benefits, and challenges to climate change adaptation in Bangladesh. It specifically investigates the “Community Based Adaptation to Climate Change through Coastal Afforestation Program,” a 5-year $5 million adaptation scheme being funded and implemented in part by the Government of Bangladesh, United Nations Development Program, and Global Environment Facility. The article explores how the CBACC-CA builds various types of adaptive capacity in Bangladesh and the extent its design and implementation offers lessons for other adaptation programs around the world. The first part of the study begins by describing its research methods consisting of research interviews, site visits, and a literature review. It then summarizes six primary sectors vulnerable to climate change in Bangladesh: water resources and coastal zones, infrastructure and human settlements, agriculture and food security, forestry and biodiversity, fisheries, and human health. The article next describes the genesis and background behind the CBACC-CA, with an emphasis on components that promote capacity development, demonstration projects, risk reduction, and knowledge management. The article concludes that technology by itself is only a partial component of successful adaptation efforts, and that multiple and integrated adaptation measures that cut across sectors and social, institutional, and infrastructural dimensions are needed to truly build resilience and effectiveness.     

Enhancing adaptive capacity to climate change: The case of smallholder farmers in the Brazilian semi-arid region

Climate change is one of the main challenges faced by mankind in this century. Although developing countries have little historical responsibility for climate change, they are likely to be most affected by it since they lack resources to cope with or to adapt to its effects. Studies show that the semi-arid northeast region of Brazil – where the country's poorest populations are concentrated – is one of the most vulnerable to climate change and thus likely to suffer its impacts more severely. The present paper addresses these problems by presenting a concrete initiative for strengthening adaptive capacity in the rural community of Pintadas as a first step in the development of a comprehensive methodology to help smallholder farmers in the region adapt to climate change. Based on the project results this paper highlights the integration of development, adaptive capacity and adaptation strategies. Furthermore, the necessity of vulnerability studies and concrete local experiences is highlighted in order to develop adaptation strategies that can alleviate poverty and minimize climate change impacts for the poor.     

Complementarity between mitigation and adaptation: the water sector

The water cycle, a fundamental component of climate, is likely to be altered in important ways by climate change. Climate change will most likely worsen the already existing water related problems. Then the question is how should policy makers respond to this dilemma. Climate change mitigation, through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction and sequestration is not a sufficient response. Adaptation will also need to feature as a response strategy. Mitigation and adaptation need to be viewed as complementary responses to climate change. Complementarity between adaptation and mitigation in the water sector will be addressed in this paper. The paper will also outline the main impacts of climate change on water resources and identify those areas that are most dependent and vulnerable to hydrological systems (e.g., hydroelectric systems, irrigation, agriculture) and any changes thereof resulting from climate change. It will aim to assess the impact of water demand and water use, with a view to identifying the main relationships between mitigation and adaptation in the water sector and the means through which individual mitigation and adaptation actions can potentially interact with each other for the benefit of the water sector as a whole. It will also explore the implications of climate change on the management of water resources. Adaptation and mitigation options would be considered in the context of their socio-economic and environmental impacts and their contribution to sustainable development. A brief evaluation of how this information can be directly used for planning purpose will also be presented.

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Prioritization of climate change adaptation approaches in the Gambia

Adaptation to climate change has been recognized as very important in developing countries that face the greatest threats from global warming. In proposing various adaptation approaches, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change required nations to prepare adaptation plans of action. However, the areas of priority in climate change adaptation have not been considered. This study has developed a new prioritization methodology for climate change adaptation in developing countries. Five categories and 25 approaches in climate change adaptation were adopted through a thorough and detailed analysis of pertinent literature related to the National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) in the Gambia. A fuzzy analytic hierarchy process-based questionnaire survey was designed and presented to 12 experts chosen from the committee members of the Gambia’s NAPA. The survey was made to determine the relative importance of the strategies for climate change adaptation. The results indicate that the five most important adaptation categories are health (0.223), forestry (0.213), water (0.210), food (0.181), and energy (0.174), with health as the number one priority in climate change adaptation. Further findings show that the prioritization order of the adaptation approaches to climate change in the Gambia is as follows: “Health education,” “public sensitization,” “water supply infrastructure development,” “microfinance,” and “infrastructure and technology enhancement.”     

The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies—A Danish water management example

We propose a generic framework to characterize climate change adaptation uncertainty according to three dimensions: level, source and nature. Our framework is different, and in this respect more comprehensive, than the present UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach and could be used to address concerns that the IPCC approach is oversimplified. We have studied the role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning using examples from four Danish water related sectors. The dominating sources of uncertainty differ greatly among issues; most uncertainties on impacts are epistemic (reducible) by nature but uncertainties on adaptation measures are complex, with ambiguity often being added to impact uncertainties. Strategies to deal with uncertainty in climate change adaptation should reflect the nature of the uncertainty sources and how they interact with risk level and decision making: (i) epistemic uncertainties can be reduced by gaining more knowledge; (ii) uncertainties related to ambiguity can be reduced by dialogue and knowledge sharing between the different stakeholders; and (iii) aleatory uncertainty is, by its nature, non-reducible. The uncertainty cascade includes many sources and their propagation through technical and socio-economic models may add substantially to prediction uncertainties, but they may also cancel each other. Thus, even large uncertainties may have small consequences for decision making, because multiple sources of information provide sufficient knowledge to justify action in climate change adaptation.     

Collaborative use of geodesign tools to support decision-making on adaptation to climate change

Spatial planners around the world need to make climate change adaptation plans. Climate adaptation planning requires combining spatial information with stakeholder values. This study demonstrates the potential of geodesign tools as a mean to integrate spatial analysis with stakeholder participation in adaptation planning. The tools are interactive and provide dynamic feedback on stakeholder objectives in response to the application of spatial measures. Different rationalities formed by underlying internalized values influence the reasoning of decision-making. Four tools were developed, each tailored to different rationalities varying between a collective or individual viewpoint and analytical or political arguments. The tools were evaluated in an experiment with four groups of participants that were set around an interactive mapping device: the touch table. To study how local decision-making on adaptation can be supported, this study focuses on a specific case study in the Netherlands. In this case study, multiple different stakeholders need to make spatial decisions on land use and water management planning in response to climate change. The collaborative use of four geodesign tools was evaluated in an interactive experiment. The results show that the geodesign tools were able to integrate the engagement of stakeholders and assessment of measures. The experiment showed that decision-making on adaptation to climate change can benefit from the use of geodesign tools as long as the tool is carefully matched to the rationality that applies to the adaptation issue. Although the tools were tested to support the design of adaptation plans in a Dutch setting, the tools could be used for regional adaptation planning in other countries such as the development of regional adaptation strategies (RAS) as required by the European Union or on a national scale to support developing national adaptation plans of action (NAPAs) as initiated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for least developed countries.     

Impact of climate change on regional irrigation water demand in Baojixia irrigation district of China

Water scarcity in China would possibly be aggravated by rapid increase in water demand for irrigation due to climate change. This paper focuses on the mechanism of climate change impact on regional irrigation water demand by considering the dynamic feedback relationships among climate change, irrigation water demand and adaptation measures. The model in implemented using system dynamics approach and employed in Baojixia irrigation district located in Shaanxi Province of China to analyses the changes in irrigation water demand under different climate change scenarios. Obtained results revealed that temperature will be the dominant factor to determine irrigation water demand in the area. An increase of temperature by 1 °C will result in net irrigation water demand to increase by about 12,050?×?10⁴ m³ and gross water demand by about 20,080?×?10⁴ m³ in the area. However, irrigation water demand will not increase at the same rate of temperature rise as the adaptation measures will eventually reduce the water demand increased by temperature rise. It is expected that the modeling approach presented in this study can be used in adopting policy responses to reduce climate change impacts on water resources.     

Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Yellow River basin and identification of global adaptation strategies

Climate change is a global environmental issue, which is challenging water resources management and practices. This study investigates the impact of climate change on water resources of the Yellow River basin, a major grain-producing area in China, and provides recommendations on strategies to increase adaptive capacity and resilience in the basin region. Results show that the recorded stream flows of the Yellow River declined from 1951 to 2010 and have decreased significantly in the middle and lower reaches. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model performs well as a tool to simulate monthly discharge of both the tributary catchments and the whole Yellow River basin. Temperature across the Yellow River basin over 2021–2050 is expected to continue to rise with an average rates of approximately 0.039–0.056 °C/annum. The average annual precipitation in the basin is projected to increase by 1.28–3.29 % compared with the 1991–2010 baseline. Runoff during 2021–2050 is projected to decrease by 0.53–9.67 % relative to 1991–2010 with high decadal and spatial variability. This is likely due to the model’s projections of a significant rise in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns. Climate change will likely aggravate the severity and frequency of both water shortages and flooding in the basin region. It is therefore essential to devote sufficient attention on structural and non-structural measures for the Yellow River basin to cope with climate change. At the global level, strategies to increase adaptive capacity and build resilience to climate change focus on public education to improve awareness of climate risks, implementing the integrated water resources management and planning based on impact assessments.