中国城乡贫困变动:2004—2012

本文基于2004—2012年中国综合社会调查数据,根据家庭人均年收入2 300元的国家贫困标准线和"1天1.5美元"的亚洲贫困标准线,使用FGT指数和脱贫时间两种贫困指数评估了我国城乡贫困整体变动趋势,并从城乡和地区、个体和家庭特征层面分解贫困人口构成;也考察了贫困变动的增长效应和收入分配效应;最后定量地分析收入增长的影响因素。结果表明,根据两种贫困标准线,两种贫困指数测度结果一致反映我国贫困人口规模显著减少;按国家贫困标准线,我国城乡贫困发生率下降了8.8%,但到2012年的依然高达8.6%,农村贫困人口平均脱贫时间为5.4年,而相对贫困发生率有所上升。不同地区的贫困变动差异较大,西部地区和中部地区贫困发生率依然高于全国平均水平3.41个百分点和0.22个百分点,贫困强度和贫困深度现象都还较为严重;东部地区的减贫效应十分明显,但贫困人口内部收入差距拉大问题较为突出。经济增长的脱贫效应较为显著,但增长的亲贫性有待提高;城乡、地区和贫困人口内部居民收入差距逐渐拉大,并成为反贫困的严重障碍。外出非农工作经历、性别差异和教育程度是影响收入增长的关键因素。基于此,本文建议反贫政策应瞄准西部地区的教育程度和健康水平较低、家庭规模较大的农村居民,尤其是女性户主家庭,也应加强养老保险、社会帮扶和人力资本投资,形成改善收入分配为重点的社会保障性扶贫政策体系;中部地区可以借助邻近东部地区的地理优势,通过承接产业转移持续实施"开发式扶贫"政策体系;同时,也可将扶贫标准线提高为每人"1天1.5美元"的亚洲贫困线。     

中国西部绿色发展概念框架

综合绿色发展的国际经验,以自然资本、经济资本、社会资本与人力资本四大资本为核心,提出了中国西部地区绿色发展概念框架.中国西部地区绿色发展概念框架是以“发展中促转变,转变中谋发展”的良性循环发展原则为指导原则,分析西部地区社会经济发展及生态环境和自然资源保护两个方面在发展过程中相互促进和制约的关系,并根据西部地区当前经济资本、环境资本、社会资本以及人力资本数量,通过政府适当干预,如区域规划、区内调整,最终实现社会经济与生态环境和自然资源相协调的绿色发展.该框架综合考虑了中国西部在绿色发展道路上特有挑战与机遇,阐明了社会经济发展与资源环境承载力之间的相互作用机制,明确了中国西部地区“生态友好、社会包容和内生增长”的绿色发展目标.最后,本文针对该绿色发展框架提出了中国西部地区绿色发展的政策建议:提出“西部地区绿色发展战略”是当前西部地区绿色发展进程中最为迫切的需求,中央政府应当尽快制定和实施“西部地区绿色发展战略”,同时西部地区政府在省级和地方层面将保护中国西部生态环境与区域扶贫开发相结合,加大对以提升西部地区人力资本为目的的各类工程的投入,强化区域绿色基础建设和生态服务供给,缓解西部地区贫困,提升区域绿色发展进程的速度和质量;开展财政体制机制改革,以提高各级财政资金的使用效率;结合各省发展需求与条件实施以生态城市为发展目标的可持续城镇化发展模式,制定差异化的城镇化发展战略;在西部地区重点和限制开发区尤其是贫困集中和区域发展潜力较大地区,鼓励具有区域特色的新型绿色产业的发展.在发展过程中不断加强制度创新以引导长期绿色发展.     

不对称信息条件下精准扶贫效果偏离的内在机理及实证分析

通过引入不对称信息动态博弈模型中的经典信号博弈模型,研究在信息不对称的扶贫攻坚过程中,"普惠式"扶贫开发机制如何诱发贫困户机会主义行为。利用深度贫困的南疆四地州、六个县813户贫困家庭档案及调研数据进行实证分析,从理论和经验两个层面论证贫困户内生动力在扶贫开发中的关键作用。研究结果证明:①深度贫困地区扶贫开发主体和客体存在信息不对称,效用最大化的追逐诱发贫困户产生机会主义行为,使其更专注于贫困户身份的认定,不利于精准脱贫的可持续;②"短、平、快"的扶贫机制虽然能够快速帮助贫困户脱贫,但其保留效用较小,"益贫性"较低,导致贫困户对直接补贴产生持续依赖,进而失去主动摆脱贫困的内生动力,脱贫质量更低;③敏感性差异分析显示,长期受益于财政专项资金支持的国家级扶贫开发重点县"贫困陷阱"现象更为严峻,其扶贫开发对贫困户"扶志"的需求更为紧迫。以上发现是边疆少数民族深度贫困地区扶贫开发的难点,也是贫困治理"最后一公里"的关键点。新时代精准扶贫必须转变传统"输血式"扶贫模式,把兜底工作与直接财政支持区别开来,对具有一定劳动能力的家庭,坚持以"益贫式"发展为主,提高精准扶贫的保留效用。通过基础教育、国语教育、技能培训、外出就业指导服务等方式,分层次、多渠道、精准到村到户,充分激发贫困家庭劳动热情,持续提高其自我发展、主动脱贫的意识,彻底阻断贫困代际传递。     

三峡库区移民贫困致因的精准识别与减贫路径的实证研究

随着我国经济发展和扶贫成效的显现,老区、山区、民族地区和移民库区等集中连片的特殊贫困区已经成为我国当前精准扶贫的主战场。由于面临生产资料匮乏、生态环境恶化和地质灾害频发等恶劣环境,库区移民贫困问题已成为新时期扶贫攻坚最难啃的"硬骨头"。因此,开展库区移民贫困致因的精准识别与减贫路径研究具有重要的现实意义。基于对库区移民贫困现状的扎根理论分析,本文提出了分析农户生计的新框架。在此基础上,本文以三峡库区26个县(区)为研究对象,随机抽取4县(区)796户移民作为样本,首先,采用灰色关联分析法和熵权法对库区移民主要致贫因子进行挖掘;接着,采用PLS-SEM模型分析影响库区移民生计状况的关键因子和关键路径。研究表明:(1)三峡库区移民贫困现象仍很严重,患病、劳动能力弱和失地是移民致贫的三大主因。三峡库区仍有175.94万人生活在贫困线以下,三大致贫原因依次是:因病致贫26.49%、因劳动能力弱致贫22.10%和失地致贫21.65%。(2)心理资本可有效促进移民其他资本效能的发挥,对生计状况存在着显著的直接效应和间接效应。(3)在影响生计状况的四类资本中,人力资本对库区移民生计状况影响最大。基于以上发现,本文提出了实现库区移民精准脱贫的政策建议:(1)国家应高度重视三峡库区移民贫困问题,大力开展精准扶贫;(2)增加心理干预措施以提高移民心理资本存量,帮助移民摆脱心理贫困;(3)开展劳动力技能培训,提高库区移民人力资本水平。     

中国西部地区生态保护建设路径的探讨

中国西部地区,因其独特的地理位置和地形、地貌特点而形成的生态地理单元,在中国乃至于整个亚洲地区的生态系统中具有极其重要的地位,然而,西部地区是中国生态环境最脆弱的地区.西部大开发战略实施以来,西部生态环境得到了明显的改善,但依然存在水资源失调,干旱灾害严重,植被破坏、水土流失严重,荒漠化加剧,风沙灾害蔓延等生态环境问题,生态环境恶化降低了整个西部地区对人类活动的承载能力,使自然灾害强度加剧并且频度增加,造成社会经济的突出损失、增加了社会发展成本、限制了社会经济的发展速度和方向.由此,西部地区的生态环境保护与建设显得尤为重要,刻不容缓.鉴于此,本文分析了西部地区生态环境现状以及实施生态保护建设的意义,阐析了生态保护建设目前的概况,在此基础上,深入分析了西部生态保护建设存在的问题,结合西部地区的现状给出了相关建议:西部地区生态保护、建设的管理体制进行改革和完善,建立中央宏观综合管理部门统一主管的、地方政府负总责和执行的政策框架;不断加大草地生态系统的保护和建设力度;协调好农业发展与生态保护的关系,积极发展西部地区农业的替代产业,改变当前不合理的农业生产方式和土地资源的利用模式,降低农村特别是生态脆弱地区的人地压力,迅速开展生态补偿试点,完善资源开发补偿机制,将替代产业发展纳入到生态建设工程之中;建立西部生态环境监测评估体系,全面评估西部生态环境建设,为未来的生态建设规划提供科学决策依据.     

贫困地区农户脆弱性及其影响因素分析

农户脆弱性能够更为全面反映贫困地区农户的福利状态。采用预期贫困的脆弱性测量方法,在1 274元和2 300元两条贫困线下,首次利用具有全国代表性的中国农村贫困监测调查53 271个农户微观数据对贫困地区农户脆弱性进行测量,描述了脆弱农户的家庭特征和社区特征,分析了不同地形之下汉族和少数民族农户脆弱性的影响因素。研究发现,在1 274元和2 300元贫困线下,农户陷入未来贫困的平均可能性分别为15.20%、49.49%。脆弱性测量和贫困测量的结果存在较大差异。随贫困线标准提高,脆弱性测量与贫困测量的不一致程度增大。高度脆弱农户具有较大家庭规模、人力资本不足、病人数量多、抚养比高、资产价值少的家庭特征,且更可能分布在山区、革命老区县、陆地边境县和少数民族聚居村等特殊类型贫困地区。不同类型地区农户脆弱性的影响因素存在差异,但冲击性事件是主要影响因素。当年有建房或买房、有婚丧嫁娶大事、有子女上大学、有大病治疗情况、旱灾等冲击性事件是各个地区农户脆弱性的共性影响因素,家庭规模、人力资本状况和房屋价值也是影响农户脆弱程度的重要因素。根据研究结论,提出相应政策建议:第一,应将贫困测量和脆弱性测量方法结合起来进行贫困瞄准;第二,未来扶贫政策制定中更应关注特殊类型贫困地区的农户;第三,在贫困标准提高的情况下,减贫的同时还应注重降低农户的脆弱性,重点是减小冲击性事件对贫困农户福利的影响。     

易地扶贫搬迁减少了贫困脆弱性吗?——基于8省16县易地扶贫搬迁准实验研究的PSM-DID分析

易地扶贫搬迁将生存环境差、生态环境脆弱、不具备基本发展条件区域里的贫困人口搬迁至生产生活条件较好的地方,以期从根本上解决贫困问题。居住在不适宜生存发展区域的农民通常面临着较高的脆弱性,未来很有可能陷入贫困而难以脱贫。由于易地扶贫搬迁不具备短期增收的效果,那么从脆弱性的视角关注易地扶贫搬迁对农户福利的影响,既是贫困静态研究向动态研究转变的一次尝试,也有助于合理评估易地扶贫搬迁的政策效果。为此,本文基于8省16个贫困县的易地扶贫搬迁监测的准实验研究,采用1 688个两轮微观农户调查的面板数据,利用PSM-DID实证检验了易地扶贫搬迁对农村家庭贫困脆弱性的影响。研究发现易地扶贫搬迁降低了农户的贫困脆弱性,这意味着易地扶贫搬迁是一种有效的扶贫手段,能够从根本上解决自然禀赋所导致的贫困。本文进一步分析了易地扶贫搬迁对贫困脆弱性的影响机制:(1)易地扶贫搬迁将农户搬离恶劣的自然禀赋区域,并改善与农户的生产生活密切相关的基础设施和公共服务设施等条件,使农户积累足够的生计资本,并改善其生计资本结构。(2)易地扶贫搬迁使生计方式发生转变,一方面实现农户收入来源的多样化,另一方面增加了住房和生活成本,并重构了社会网络关系。研究结论为易地扶贫搬迁政策效果评估提供了有理论价值和可操作的视角,也为后续扶贫搬迁工作提供了一些启示:(1)在生态环境恶劣的区域需要加大易地扶贫搬迁力度,从根本上破解自然禀赋的束缚。(2)强化搬迁的配套政策,保障搬迁农户生计得以改善,从而实现稳定脱贫。     

空间贫困分异特征、陷阱形成与致贫因素分析

消除贫困是中国共产党的一项重要历史使命。目前,中国脱贫攻坚进入关键的决战决胜阶段,精准脱贫成为实现乡村振兴及全面建成小康社会的关键问题。本文以贫困突出的江西革命老区为例,采用ESDA空间探索性分析和空间计量模型,探究其空间贫困分异特征、陷阱形成机制及影响因素,发现:①从时间维度看,2000—2016年,受国家贫困标准线大幅调整影响,江西革命老区贫困人口和贫困发生率呈现三个断点下降时期,总体脱贫进程加快。②从空间维度看,江西革命老区各县(市、区)的贫困人口和贫困发生率明显减少,贫困分异特征表现为高贫困地区集聚于南部的集中连片区或国家级贫困县,低贫困地区主要集聚于北部的非贫困区。③进一步通过空间检验发现,江西革命老区贫困以"高-高"集聚模式为主,并形成"空间贫困陷阱",均属于集中连片特困区或国家级贫困县;少数地区的贫困还存在"低-低"集聚模式,形成"脱贫溢出效应",均属于非贫困区。④实证结果表明,城乡收入之比和中学教师负担学生数显著加剧了江西革命老区贫困水平;而农民人均纯收入、卫生技术人员比例和农业机械化水平对减贫具有显著正向作用;贫困空间滞后项的显著为正也再次验证了江西革命老区"空间贫困陷阱"及"脱贫溢出效应"的存在性;相邻地区的农民人均纯收入和卫生技术人员比例的减贫效果存在显著的空间溢出效应。为此,本文提出实现江西革命老区精准脱贫建议。     

浅析五大发展新理念下的连片贫困地区脱贫攻坚路径

本文解读了"创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享"五大发展新理念的内涵,从如何调动脱贫攻坚积极性、统筹平衡扶贫资源、筑牢脱贫攻坚的生态屏障、拓展精准扶贫资金渠道、释放扶贫成果红利等方面分析了精准扶贫与五大新发展理念的契合性,以秦巴边片特困地区为例,从重视制度创新、注重多元关系、强化生态保护、拓展脱贫空间、促进红利释放五个方面阐述了五大新发展理念下指导下集中连片贫困地区脱贫攻坚的路径。     

中国西部环境政策回顾及建议

西部生态环境脆弱而屏障作用显著.在新一轮西部大开发的背景下,对过去西部地区生态环境保护与管理政策进行回顾和总结,辨析其实施成效与存在的问题,并进一步提出相关政策建议,对今后西部国土开发和生态环境保护具有重要意义.本文通过对我国西部生态环境政策进行梳理和分析,发现:①西部地区的生态环境政策在不同阶段具有不同特征,改革开放以前(1949-1977年)主要是开发带动治理,改革开放-西部大开发之前(1978-1999年)逐渐由开发转变为以保护为主,西部大开发十年期间(2000-2010年)开始全面实施生态环境保护和建设;②在空间上,通过自然保护区设置、生态移民、财政转移支付和差别化的生态环境政策,在一定程度上促进了生态、社会、经济的协调发展;③在各项政策和工程实施下,西部生态环境退化趋势得到明显缓解,同时,农牧民的生活条件和经济收入得到较大提高,在生态环境治理、全社会参与、环保投资等方面探索出诸多成功经验;④生态环境政策还存在一些亟待解决的问题,如生态环境建设多以各个部门主导,缺乏统一规划和政策协调,有些政策缺乏充足的科学依据,生态补偿政策缺乏总体还需进一步完善,环境政策实施效果评估,反馈环节还较薄弱等.针对这些问题,本文最后提出建议.     

WSSD 2002, Latin America and Brazil: Biodiversity and Indigenous People

Latin America comprehends notable variations in terms of natural environment, availability of natural resources, living standards, and demographic patterns. Latin America is a mosaic of cultures, post- and pre-Columbian. The rich variety of life forms discovered and described by chroniclers and traveling naturalists in the Neotropics contributed to the proposal, in mid-XVIIIth century, of a new system of classification and a scientific code of nomenclature for all organisms. Biodiversity was, for many centuries, a source of resources to be exploited in natura. In scientific circles, its inventory became the domain of taxonomists. But modern technology showed how important the miriad of life forms really are as sources of chemical molecules to be engineered as drugs and reassembled as novel manufactured products. We are on the brink of a new agricultural and medical revolution, thanks to the techniques of genetic engineering, which will lead eventually to the elimination of hunger and malnutrition.In this essay, the Brazilian environmental and social heterogeneity will serve as an example to illustrate some key points, which have influenced sustainability policies. The Amazon deforestation and indigenous knowledge (IK), subjects often associated with areas of high biodiversity, are usually the focus of environmental debates. The importance of IK in integrating development, reducing poverty and sustainability are considered together with the intellectual property rights of native populations.In the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) Implementation Plan, a few paragraphs were dedicated to Latin America, because of the pre-existing Action Platform on the Road to Johannesburg 2002, approved in Rio de Janeiro in October 2001. This paper calls attention to the need to draw up specific environmental policies for a region which shows an extremely high cultural and biological diversity, associated with a high availability of forests and water, among other resources.     

Latitudinal variation in size of freshwater pulmonate mollusks (Mollusca: Gastropoda: Pulmonata) in Western Siberia

The size of shells in some freshwater pulmonate mollusk species abundant in Western Siberia (Lymnaea fragilis, L. terebra, Planorbis planorbis, and Anisus leucostoma) is relatively large in the south and decreases in the north. It is supposed that this phenomenon is explained by the fact that the season with conditions allowing the growth of mollusks is shorter in the north than in the south of Western Siberia.     

Ethnosciences––A step towards the integration of scientific and indigenous forms of knowledge in the management of natural resources for the future

Integration of indigenous knowledge and ethnoscientific approaches into contemporary frameworks for conservation and sustainable management of natural resources will become increasingly important in policies on an international and national level, both in countries that are industrialised and those that have a developing status. We set the scene on how this can be done by exploring the key conditions and dimensions of a dialogue between ȁ8ontologiesȁ9 and the roles, which ethnosciences could play in this process. First, the roles of ethnosciences in the context of sustainable development were analysed, placing emphasis on the implications arising when western sciences aspire to relate to indigenous forms of␣knowledge. Secondly, the contributions of ethnosciences to such an ȁ8inter- ontological dialogueȁ9 were explored, based on an ethnoecological study of the encounter of sciences and indigenous knowledge in the Andes of Bolivia, and reviewed experiences from mangrove systems in Kenya, India and Sri Lanka, and from case-studies in other ecosystems world-wide, incl. Australia, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Nepal, Niger, Philippines, Senegal, South-Africa and Tanzania.     

Paradoxical ozone associations could be due to methyl nitrite from combustion of methyl ethers or esters in engine fuels

We review studies of the effects of low ambient ozone concentrations on morbidity that found a negative coefficient for ozone concentration. We call this a Paradoxical Ozone Association (POA). All studies were in regions with methyl ether in gasoline. All but one study carefully controlled for the effects of other criterion pollutants, so the phenomenon cannot be attributed to them. One was in southern California in mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Because ozone is created by sunlight, the most plausible explanation for a POA would be an ambient pollutant that is rapidly destroyed by sunlight, such as methyl nitrite (MN). A previously published model of engine exhaust chemistry suggested methyl ether in the fuel will create MN in the exhaust. MN is known to be highly toxic, and closely related alkyl nitrites are known to induce respiratory sensitivity in humans. Support for the interpretation comes from many studies, including three linking asthma symptoms to methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the observation that a POA has not been seen in regions without ether in gasoline. We also note that studies in southern California show a historical trend from more significant to less significant ozone-health associations. The timing of those changes is consistent with the known timing of the introduction of gasoline oxygenated with MTBE in that region.     

湘鄂赣农业资源与专业化区域化方向

湘鄂赣地理位置优越,农业资源丰富,稻谷、茶叶、麻类、棉花、油料、柑桔和淡水产品、禽蛋、肉类等在我国居有重要的地位,因此,大力发展三省农业生产,对我国人民实现小康生活具有战略意义。今后,要加速专业化区域化进程。我们找出生产潜力所在:改造低产田、低产园、低产水面;开发“三高”技术;开垦荒地、荒山、荒水;适当提高复种指数。通过建设,三省主要农产品将自给有余,还可满足国内外市场的需要。努力方向:高效农业开发——综合农业开发,吨粮田开发,玉米带开发,饲料稻开发,山区开发;合理布局农业生产;深化农业商品基地建设,发展综合利用,搞活商品流通;全面提高农业现代化水平,加强农业社会服务体系。     

Prognosis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystems by means of universal kriging

The use of quantitative data for constructing prognostic maps of the dynamics of ecosystem degradation and restoration by nonlinear simulation methods is a topical field of landscape ecology. This method of dynamic cartography is based on fiberwise comparison of data on the state of Chernye Zemli (the Kalmyk Republic, Russia) in different years and the detailed analysis of the period on which the prognosis was based. For this purpose, materials of repeated aerial and satellite photography obtained during a long period (1954–1993) were used. Comparison of maps characterizing the dynamics of Chernye Zemli between 1958 and 1993 allows prognostic electronic maps for the next 10–15 years (with a five-year interval) to be drawn and land prognosis for the next 20–30 years (1998–2023) to be obtained. Deceased     

Household water in rural asia: a case study of the construction of a piped water system in Bangui,Ilocos Norte,Philippines

In early 1980 an extension agent was assigned to the rural municipality of Bangui, Ilocos Norte, Philippines to work on development projects – in particular the improvement of the supply of safe water for drinking and sanitation. After many months of visiting spring sites and meeting with community leaders, a small part of the municipality was selected to build a gravity fed piped water system. Although the system took many months to plan, identify funding and construct, the 600 community members were ultimately rewarded with house to house connections that enabled them to achieve per capita water consumption levels above the minimum levels recommended by the World Health Organization. Of course, money was critical to ensure the project’s success, but many other factors played an equally critical role. For instance, without the active participation of the community and the unwavering support of the community leadership the project would not have survived the initial planning stage. Also, the extension agent played a critical role by acting as a conduit between funding agencies, the Bureau of Public Works and the community. The primary lesson to be learned from this experience is that the success of rural development projects is largely driven by the synergy between the community, technical support, financial support, and agents of change such as extension agents. If any of these ingredients had been lacking, the project result would likely have been far different.     

Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis

Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.     

Geographic Variation in the Seasonal Reproductive Strategy of the Mite Varroa jacobsoni in the Honeybee Nest

Variation in the reproduction of Varroa jacobsoni mite was studied in relation to the expansion of the range of its parasitism on the honeybee. Geographic differences in the seasonal dynamics of mite reproduction in the nests of bee families were revealed. Variation in the sex ratio of mites and the factors inhibiting their reproduction at the northern boundary of the honeybee range are considered. The forms of parthenogenetic reproduction in V. jacobsoni are discussed.