Assessing social vulnerability to climate change in Samoa

Climate change severely impacts on the natural and socio-economic systems of the Pacific Islands. Samoa, a small insular state of the region, is characterized by widespread awareness of climate change reflected by its leading international role. This also makes Samoa a potentially exemplary reference for the Pacific Islands. Against this backdrop, the overall aim of this article is to investigate the notion of social vulnerability and measure its dimensions in Samoa through a specific index: the Samoa Social Vulnerability Index (SSVI). The SSVI may yield better understanding of the characteristics and dynamics of social vulnerability, as well as information for fostering adaptation strategies in Samoa and in the Pacific Islands. In particular, the article first outlines the major vulnerabilities to climate change in Samoa and then analyses the composite notion of social vulnerability. On this basis, the article methodologically specifies, designs and constructs the SSVI. Afterwards, it uses such index for measuring the dimensions of social vulnerability in Samoa’s districts. Finally, some considerations are made concerning the policy relevance of the SSVI and its potential regional role.     

Once there was a lake: vulnerability to environmental changes in northern Mali

Vulnerability assessment is increasingly recognised as a starting point to identify climate adaptation needs and improve adaptive capacity. However, vulnerability assessments are challenging because of the complexity of multifaceted biophysical, human and institutional factors, interacting at different scales and levels within socio-ecological systems. Using a participatory approach across levels and genders, this paper explores the vulnerability of livestock- and forest-based livelihoods to climate variability and change in Lake Faguibine, northern Mali, where drastic ecological, political and social changes have occurred. Our results show that the distribution of vulnerabilities within livelihoods and groups shifted when the ecosystem evolved from a lake to a forest. New vulnerability drivers have emerged, related to resources availability, access and power relations. In addition, political interests and psychological barriers hinder the local transition to an equitable and sustainable use of forest ecosystem services. Divergent perceptions, social identities, interests and power explained why different actors—governmental and non-governmental, men and women, local, sub-national and national—differed in their vulnerability assessments. This is exemplified in the way actors at different levels and of different gender analysed the effects of herders’ mobility and in the way women analysed men’s migration. This case study confirms the need for participatory and gender-sensitive vulnerability assessments across different scales and levels that consider the interaction between socio-ecological systems and the dynamics and distribution of vulnerability across different social sub-systems.     

A social and ecological imperative for ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change in the Pacific Islands

Climate change is predicted to have a range of impacts on Pacific Island ecosystems and the services they provide for current and future development. There are a number of characteristics that can make adaptation approaches that utilise the benefits of ecosystems a compelling and viable alternative to other adaptation approaches. The objective of this paper is to determine what level of relative influence technical and planning considerations currently have in guiding the recognition and application of ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) approaches in the Pacific Islands context. The technical feasibility of EbA in relation to the expected impacts of climate change and the compatibility of adaptation planning processes of the Pacific Islands with EbA requirements was considered. The main barrier to fully implementing EbA in the Pacific Islands is not likely to be financial capital, but a combination of stable technical capacity within government departments to advise communities on EbA opportunities and the compatibility of planning frameworks.     

Putting vulnerability to climate change on the map: a review of approaches, benefits, and risks

There is growing demand among stakeholders across public and private institutions for spatially-explicit information regarding vulnerability to climate change at the local scale. However, the challenges associated with mapping the geography of climate change vulnerability are non-trivial, both conceptually and technically, suggesting the need for more critical evaluation of this practice. Here, we review climate change vulnerability mapping in the context of four key questions that are fundamental to assessment design. First, what are the goals of the assessment? A review of published assessments yields a range of objective statements that emphasize problem orientation or decision-making about adaptation actions. Second, how is the assessment of vulnerability framed? Assessments vary with respect to what values are assessed (vulnerability of what) and the underlying determinants of vulnerability that are considered (vulnerability to what). The selected frame ultimately influences perceptions of the primary driving forces of vulnerability as well as preferences regarding management alternatives. Third, what are the technical methods by which an assessment is conducted? The integration of vulnerability determinants into a common map remains an emergent and subjective practice associated with a number of methodological challenges. Fourth, who participates in the assessment and how will it be used to facilitate change? Assessments are often conducted under the auspices of benefiting stakeholders, yet many lack direct engagement with stakeholders. Each of these questions is reviewed in turn by drawing on an illustrative set of 45 vulnerability mapping studies appearing in the literature. A number of pathways for placing vulnerability mapping on a more robust footing are also identified.     

Communicating climate change for adaptation in rural communities: a Pacific study

The academic literature on climate change communications is growing. However, the majority of this literature focuses on the issue of climate change mitigation in a developed country context, and there is little published material regarding communication in a developing country and adaptation context. Similarly, despite community-based approaches to climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction increasing in the Pacific Islands region, there is very limited guidance on how to effectively communicate climate change in a way that enhances people’s resilience. This paper documents the experiences of organisations, including local and international non-government and faith-based organisations, governments, regional technical organisations and donor agencies in communicating climate change for adaptation in the Pacific region. Three key climate change communication challenges are highlighted and suggestions made for overcoming them based on results from interviews, a focus group discussion and an online forum. Finally, recommendations are made for good practice guidance in climate change communication that is empowering and culturally relevant.     

How do we assess vulnerability to climate change in India? A systematic review of literature

In countries like India where multiple risks interact with socio-economic differences to create and sustain vulnerability, assessing the vulnerability of people, places, and systems to climate change is a critical tool to prioritise adaptation. In India, several vulnerability assessment tools have been designed spanning multiple disciplines, by multiple actors, and at multiple scales. However, their conceptual, methodological, and disciplinary underpinnings, and resulting implications on who is identified as vulnerable, have not been interrogated. Addressing this gap, we systematically review peer-reviewed publications (n = 78) and grey literature (n = 42) to characterise how vulnerability to climate change is assessed in India. We frame our enquiry against four questions: (1) How is vulnerability conceptualised (vulnerability of whom/what, vulnerability to what), (2) who assesses vulnerability, (3) how is vulnerability assessed (methodology, scale), and (4) what are the implications of methodology on outcomes of the assessment. Our findings emphasise that methods to assess vulnerability to climate change are embedded in the disciplinary traditions, methodological approaches, and often-unstated motivations of those designing the assessment. Further, while most assessments acknowledge the importance of scalar and temporal aspects of vulnerability, we find few examples of it being integrated in methodology. Such methodological myopia potentially overlooks how social differentiation, ecological shifts, and institutional dynamics construct and perpetuate vulnerability. Finally, we synthesise the strengths and weaknesses of current vulnerability assessment methods in India and identify a predominance of research in rural landscapes with a relatively lower coverage in urban and peri-urban settlements, which are key interfaces of transitions.     

New Zealand kiwifruit growers’ vulnerability to climate and other stressors

Commercial cultivation of kiwifruit in New Zealand is concentrated in a relatively small area of the North Island. Cultivation is economically significant and growing quickly. However, current understanding of vulnerability for this, and other primary sector activities in New Zealand, makes almost exclusive use of linear outcome-oriented frameworks. Drawing on in-depth, semi-structured interviews with kiwifruit growers and orchard managers, workshops and analysis of secondary data, a “bottom-up” contextual assessment of vulnerability was developed and empirically applied. The findings suggest that climate and markets are the main sources of exposure for growers, with sensitivity moderated by location. Growers employ mostly short-term, reactive adaptive strategies to manage climate exposure and sensitivity, but have less capacity to respond to market-related stressors. Warmer and drier conditions are likely to have adverse effects for kiwifruit production and compound existing vulnerabilities. An ageing population and other processes of rural change may also constrain future adaptation. In order to realise opportunities and minimise losses, longer-term strategic responses are required. The paper demonstrates the need to move beyond outcome-oriented and model-based vulnerability assessments in New Zealand, to consider the broad range of the factors that contribute to vulnerability in the nation’s agricultural sectors. It provides a basis for further consideration of multiple exogenous impacts in the industry and confirms the critical importance of qualitatively vulnerability assessments to determine spatially specific outcomes.     

Toward sustainable adaptation to future climate change: insights from vulnerability and resilience approaches analyzing agrarian system of Iran

There is no certainty that adaptation to climate change is sustainable, and new approaches to assess current climate change adaptation trajectories are sorely needed. In this paper, we review the farmer-focused approaches (typical of vulnerability approaches) and agro-ecosystem-focused approaches (typical of resilience approaches). We propose that a combination of the two may be a better way to conceptualize sustainable adaptation to future climate change within an agro-ecological system. To test our hypothesis, we use the case study of Iran, a land that has shown both tremendous resilience and vulnerability in its agro-ecological system. We explore the changes that have occurred in the Iranian farming system and their implications for farmers’ resilience to climate change through an integrated lens combining vulnerability approaches and resilience approaches. During the previous five decades, we describe how Iranian peasants have become small farmers, the land tenure system has changed from a traditional landlord-sharecropping system to family farms, and the quantity and quality of the agro-ecological resources have changed considerably. Our integrative approach provides important insights for both research and policy. We show that combining the two approaches can have far-reaching implications for farmers’ adaptation to future climate change knowledge, policy, and practice since one approach aims to decrease farmers vulnerability and the other approach aims to build resilient agro-ecosystems.     

Climate change,food security,and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to increase the region’s susceptibility and constrain its adaptive capacity. Climate change is commonly recognized as a major issue likely to have negative consequences on food security and livelihoods in the region. This paper reviews three bodies of scholarship that have evolved somewhat separately, yet are inherently interconnected: climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, food security, and sustainable livelihoods. The paper develops a conceptualization of the relationships among the three themes and shows how food security’s vulnerabilities are related to multiple stresses and adaptive capacities, reflecting access to assets. Food security represents one of several livelihood outcomes. The framework shows how several research paradigms relate to the issue of food security and climate change and provides a guide for empirical investigations. Recognizing these interconnections can help in the development of more effective policies and programs. The framework is applied here to synthesize findings from an array of studies in sub-Saharan Africa dealing with vulnerability to climate change, food security, and livelihoods.     

Vulnerability assessment within climate change and natural hazard contexts: revealing gaps and synergies through coastal applications

The climate change and natural hazard communities have developed the notion of vulnerability and associated methods for its assessment in parallel, with only limited interaction. What are the underlying reasons for this diversity; is there advantage in greater synergy? If yes, what are the pathways through which greater integration could be fostered? This paper discusses these issues using vulnerability studies in coastal areas to describe gaps between climate change and natural hazard approaches, and investigates scope for mutual learning and collaboration in the development of methodologies for vulnerability assessment. An overview of methods highlights the separation between climate change and natural hazard approaches. The main differences identified, beyond formal divergences in terminology, are linked to: process (stress vs shock), scale (temporal, functional and spatial), assessment approach (statistical vs prospective) and levels of uncertainty. We argue that the underlying source of divergence is the initial difference of purpose, one being identification of climate change adaptation pathways, the other being disaster risk reduction. In this context, the notion of vulnerability and its expression through assessment studies is the focal point connecting both domains. Indeed, the ongoing and active development of vulnerability concepts and methods have already produced some tools to help overcome common issues, such as acting in a context of high uncertainties, taking into account the dynamics and spatial scale of a social-ecological system, or gathering viewpoints from different sciences to combine human and impact-based approaches. Based on this assessment, this paper proposes concrete perspectives and possibilities to benefit from existing commonalities in the construction and application of assessment tools.     

What is in an index? Construction method,data metric,and weighting scheme determine the outcome of composite social vulnerability indices in New York City

Mapping social vulnerability is a prominent way to identify regions in which the lack of capacity to cope with the impacts of weather extremes is nested in the social setting, aiding climate change adaptation for vulnerable residents, neighborhoods, or localities. Calculating social vulnerability usually involves the construction of a composite index, for which several construction methods have been suggested. However, thorough investigation of results across methods or applied weighting of vulnerability factors is largely missing. This study investigates the outcome of the variable addition—both with and without weighting of single vulnerability factors—and the variable reduction approach/model on social vulnerability indices calculated for New York City. Weighting is based on scientific assessment reports on climate change impacts in New York City. Additionally, the study calculates the outcome on social vulnerability when using either area-based (person/km²) or population-based (%) input data. The study reveals remarkable differences between indices particularly when using different methods but also when using different metrics as input data. The variable addition model has deductive advantages, whereas the variable reduction model is useful when the strength of factors of social vulnerability is unknown. The use of area-based data seems preferable to population-based data when differences are taken as a measure of credibility and quality. Results are important for all forms of vulnerability mapping using index construction techniques.

     

Using a novel climate–water conflict vulnerability index to capture double exposures in Lake Chad

Climate variability is amongst an array of threats facing agricultural livelihoods, with its effects unevenly distributed. With resource conflict being increasingly recognised as one significant outcome of climate variability and change, understanding the underlying drivers that shape differential vulnerabilities in areas that are double-exposed to climate and conflict has great significance. Climate change vulnerability frameworks are rarely applied in water conflict research. This article presents a composite climate–water conflict vulnerability index based on a double exposure framework developed from advances in vulnerability and livelihood assessments. We apply the index to assess how the determinants of vulnerability can be useful in understanding climate variability and water conflict interactions and to establish how knowledge of the climate–conflict linked context can shape interventions to reduce vulnerability. We surveyed 240 resource users (farmers, fishermen and pastoralists) in seven villages on the south-eastern shores of Lake Chad in the Republic of Chad to collect data on a range of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity variables. Results suggest that pastoralists are more vulnerable in terms of climate-structured aggressive behaviour within a lake-based livelihoods context where all resource user groups show similar levels of exposure to climate variability. Our approach can be used to understand the human and environmental security components of vulnerability to climate change and to explore ways in which conflict-structured climate adaptation and climate-sensitive conflict management strategies can be integrated to reduce the vulnerability of populations in high-risk, conflict-prone environments.     

Supporting climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessments in the Asia-Pacific region: an example of sustainability science

Sustainability is achieved only when there is full reconciliation between: (1) economic development; (2) meeting, on an equitable basis, growing and changing human needs and aspirations; and (3) conserving the limited natural resources and the capacity of the environment to absorb the mulitple stresses that are a consequence of human activities. The linkages between climate and sustainability are examined in the context of both the wider Asia-Pacific region and local level climate risks and adaptation responses. These findings are used to underpin and illustrate several implications for sustainability science. Climate change is seen as both an impediment to increasing sustainability and as an opportunity, though in most cases the former far outweighs the latter. Assessments of climate change vulnerability and risk are shown to be of critical importance because they inform decisions as to where resources for adaptation are best invested. They also show whether global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions need to be strengthened because of limits to adaptation. In practice, adaptation takes place at many levels, essentially ranging between tangible interventions at community and enterprise level and national and international efforts to strengthen the enabling environment for adaptation. It is informative to undertake regional assessments of adaptation, even though most adaptation interventions need to reflect local conditions, including local adaptive capacities. The foregoing findings, based in part on a series of regional and local case studies, lead to several recommendations for further research that will help reduce barriers to implementing responses that reduce climate related risks, including adverse consequences for sustainability. The recommendations relate to such themes as making optimum use of predictive capabilities, characterising the linkages between climate change and sustainability, implications of the required rates and magnitudes of adaptation, institutional responses that enhance adaptive capacity, use of new and traditional technologies, the multiple dimensions of social responsibility, and enhancing the enabling environment for adaptation at the community and enterprise level. If these recommendations are acted upon they will, in turn, help address much needed improvements in quantifying the costs and benefits of adaptation, prioritising adaptation options, assessing sustainable development tradeoffs, and monitoring the success of adaptation initiatives. Such improvements will have even greater utility if they are incorporated into user-friendly decision support tools for adaptation.     

Characterising the nature of household vulnerability to climate variability: empirical evidence from two regions of Ghana

This paper builds on national- and regional-level vulnerability assessments by developing and applying a livelihood vulnerability index at the community and household scales to explore the nature of climate vulnerability. It provides innovative methodological steps in relation to livelihood assessment to identify the vulnerability of households and communities to drought. This will help to improve drought vulnerability assessments in Ghana and more widely as it shows extra information can be obtained from local-level vulnerability assessment that may be lacking in national- and regional-level analysis. The research employs quantitative and qualitative data collected through participatory methods, key informant interviews and a questionnaire survey with 270 households across 6 communities in two regions in Ghana. Results show that within the same agroecological zone, households and communities experience different degrees of climate vulnerability. These differences can be largely explained by socioeconomic characteristics such as wealth and gender, as well as access to capital assets. Results identify vulnerable households within resilient communities as well as more resilient households within vulnerable communities. These outliers are studied in detail. It is found that outlier households in vulnerable communities have an array of alternative livelihood options and tend to be socially well connected, enabling them to take advantage of opportunities associated with environmental and economic changes. To sustain and enhance the livelihoods of vulnerable households and communities, policymakers need to identify and facilitate appropriate interventions that foster asset building, improve institutional capacity as well as build social capital.     

Towards adaptation of agriculture to climate change in the Mediterranean

This study links climate change impacts to the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture on the Mediterranean region. Climate change is expected to intensify the existing risks, particularly in regions with current water scarcity, and create new opportunities for improving land and water management. These risks and opportunities are characterised and interpreted across Mediterranean areas by analysing water scarcity pressures and potential impacts on crop productivity over the next decades. The need to respond to these risks and opportunities is addressed by evaluating an adaptive capacity index that represents the ability of Mediterranean agriculture to respond to climate change. We propose an adaptive capacity index with three major components that characterise the economic capacity, human and civic resources, and agricultural innovation. These results aim to assist stakeholders as they take up the adaptation challenge and develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of the sector to climate change.     

Sub-basin scale characterization of climate change vulnerability, impacts and adaptation in an Indian River basin

Knowledge of climate change vulnerability and impacts is a prerequisite for formulating locally relevant climate change adaptation policies. A participatory approach has been used in this study to determine climate change vulnerability, impacts and adaptation aspects for the Kangsabati River basin, India. The study approach involved engaging with stakeholders representing state (sub-national), district and community levels, through an interactive brainstorming method, to understand stakeholder perceptions regarding (a) local characteristics which influence vulnerability, (b) climate change impacts and (c) relevant adaptation options. The study reveals that vulnerability varies across upstream, midstream and downstream sections of the river basin. Suggested adaptation options, in this predominantly agricultural basin, are found to be applicable across spatial scales. Stakeholder perceptions, regarding vulnerability and impacts, vary with the level of interaction, academic background and type of experience. Interaction confirms the notion that stakeholders have inherent knowledge regarding adaptation, reveals their preferences and ability to think unconventionally. We discuss limitations of the approach while demonstrating its ability to deliver locally relevant and acceptable adaptation options, which could facilitate implementation. We conclude that engaging stakeholders at multiple levels was highly effective in assessing locally relevant aspects of climate change vulnerability, impacts and applicable adaptation options in the Kangsabati River basin. Based on this assessment, a sub-basin scale is recommended for evaluating these aspects, especially for water resources and agricultural systems, through multi-level stakeholder input.     

Assessing biodiversity vulnerability to climate change: testing different methodologies for Portuguese herpetofauna

Assessing biodiversity vulnerability to future climate change is essential for developing robust adaptation strategies. A number of vulnerability assessment methodologies have been developed, from bioclimatic envelop models to more complex approaches that also consider biological traits and population status. However, the lack of comparative studies leaves the user to choose among the different methodologies without much guidance. This study applied three vulnerability assessment approaches to the Portuguese herpetofauna: (I) impact assessment approach based on bioclimatic models; (II) integrated vulnerability assessment approach, adding the evaluation of adaptive capacity to approach I; and (III) integrated vulnerability assessment and validation based on expert consultation. Results showed disagreement between the different approaches for 19 % of the species studied. Most differences were found between approach III and the two other approaches. All approaches showed advantages and limitations, the choice of a methodology being ultimately dependent on the study goals. Approach I has proven efficient to capture general vulnerability patterns. Approach II, although presenting results similar to approach I, allows for the identification of key factors affecting the species adaptive capacity and may be useful in tailoring adaptation measures. Approach III further allows us to identify knowledge gaps and to evaluate vulnerability when data availability or quality is reduced. Further, because this approach is based on an expert workshop, it has proven a perfect means to build on the vulnerability assessment results to identify indicator species and prioritize specific adaptation options.     

Framing climate uncertainty: socio-economic and climate scenarios in vulnerability and adaptation assessments

Scenarios have become a powerful tool in integrated assessment and policy analysis for climate change. Socio-economic and climate scenarios are often combined to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities across different sectors and to inform risk management strategies. Such combinations of scenarios can also play an important role in enabling the interaction between experts and other stakeholders, framing issues and providing a means for making explicit and dealing with uncertainties. Drawing on experience with the application of scenarios to climate change assessments in recent Dutch research, the paper argues that scenario approaches need to be matched to the frames of stakeholders who are situated in specific decision contexts. Differentiated approaches (top-down, bottom-up and interactive) are needed to address the different frames and decision-making contexts of stakeholders. A framework is proposed to map scenarios and decision contexts onto two dimensions: the spatial scale of the context and the starting point of approach used in scenario development (top-down, bottom-up or incident-driven). Future climate and socio-economic scenario development will be shaped by the need to become better aligned with multiple interacting uncertainties salient to stakeholders.     

Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions,climate change and limits to warming

This paper reviews scientific and gray literature addressing climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region (ISR) in the western Canadian Arctic. The review is structured using a vulnerability framework, and 420 documents related directly or indirectly to climate change are analyzed to provide insights on the current state of knowledge on climate change vulnerability in the ISR as a basis for supporting future research and long-term adaptation planning in the region. The literature documents evidence of climate change in the ISR which is compromising food security and health status, limiting transportation access and travel routes to hunting grounds, and damaging municipal infrastructure. Adaptations are being employed to manage changing conditions; however, many of the adaptations being undertaken are short term, ad-hoc, and reactive in nature. Limited long-term strategic planning for climate change is being undertaken. Current climate change risks are expected to continue in the future with further implications for communities but less is known about the adaptive capacity of communities. This review identifies the importance of targeted vulnerability research that works closely with community members and decision makers to understand the interactions between current and projected climate change and the factors which condition vulnerability and influence adaptation. Research gaps are identified, and recommendations for advancing adaptation planning are outlined.