RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION WITH RANDOM DEPOSITS1

ABSTRACT: The accumulated volume of sediment in reservoris is investigated in this paper using a statistical method. Based on the fact that sediment load and river discharge are highly correlated, a relationship between them is established. With longer records of stream flows, this relationship will serve either as a data generation mechanism which produces a sediment S-sequence having the same length as the river discharge Q-sequence, or as a transformation of variables, by which the distribution of S is transferred from the distribution of Q. The mean and variance of the sediment volume accumulated in the design life of a reservoir are then derived, assuming the S- and Q-sequences follow the log-normal distribution. Finally, case studies are given for illustrating the proposed method.     

THE EFFECTS OF RISK AND RELIABILITY ON OPTIMAL RESERVOIR DESIGN1

A chance-constrained linear programming model, which utilizes multiple linear decision rules and is useful for river basin planning, is used to evaluate the effects of risk and reliability on optimal reservoir design. Streamflow forecasts or predictions can be explicitly included in the linear program. The risk associated with the predictions is included in the model through the use of cumulative distribution functions (CDF) of streamflows which are conditioned on the predictions. A multiple-purpose reservoir on the Gunpowder River in Maryland is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the model. In order to provide the decision makers with complete and useful information, trade-off curves relating minimum reservoir capacity (a surrogate for dam costs), water supply and flood control targets, and the reliability of achieving the targets are developed. The trade-off curves may enhance the decision maker's ability to select the best dam capacity, considering technological and financial constraints as well as the trade-offs between targets, risks, and costs.     

A NEW METHOD FOR ESTIMATING FUTURE RESERVOIR STORAGE CAPACITIES1

ABSTRACT: A new method has been developed for estimating future reservoir storage capacities, allowing for sediment deposition and compaction. Reservoir sedimentation surveys for 117 reservoirs, conducted by the Illinois State Water Survey over the past 60 years, were used to determine regional constants K to represent the severity of sediment deposition in the reservoirs. More than half of the 82 water supply reservoirs investigated had records of reservoir sedimentation surveys, and their K values were calculated by using data from those sediment surveys. The average K values of the remaining non-surveyed water supply reservoirs were estimated from the regional distribution of the K values. Other important factors considered in the estimation of future reservoir storage capacities are the trap efficiency of the reservoirs and the variation of density of sediment deposits due to compaction. The model can also be used for analyzing the economics of alternative sites and of design features that can be incorporated in dams for reducing reservoir sedimentation.     

COMPARISON OF RESERVOIR LINEAR OPERATION RULES USING LINEAR AND DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING1

ABSTRACT: Mathematical optimization techniques are used to study the operation and design of a single, multi-purpose reservoir system. Optimal monthly release policies are derived for Hoover Reservoir, located in Central Ohio, using chance-constrained linear programming and dynamic programming-regression methodologies. Important characteristics of the former approach are derived, discussed, and graphically illustrated using Hoover Reservoir as a case example. Simulation procedures are used to examine and compare the overall performance of the optimal monthly reservoir release policies derived under the two approaches. Results indicate that, for the mean detention time and the corresponding safe yield target water supply release under existing design of Hoover Reservoir, the dynamic programming policies produce lower average annual losses (as defined by a two-sided quadratic loss function) while achieving at least as high reliability levels when compared to policies derived under the chance-constrained linear programming method. In making this comparison, the reservoir release policies, although not identical, are assumed to be linear. This restricted form of the release policy is necessary to make the chance-constrained programming method mathematically tractable.     

ESTIMATION OF RECHARGE FROM A RESERVOIR USING TWO WATER BUDGET MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Reservoir water levels, observation well data, and meteorological parameters were collected at a recharge dam site in Central Saudi Arabia. This data, along with other information on the reservoir and the underlying aquifer, were used to estimate the amounts of recharge through the reservoir bed by applying two water budget models. The first is a water budget model for the reservoir only, while the second is for an aquifer reach extending upstream and downstream from the reservoir. The results of the two approaches were discussed and compared.     

THE VALUE OF STREAMFLOW FORECASTING IN RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: The value of streamflow forecasts in reservoir operation depends on a number of factors and may vary considerably. Assessment of forecast benefits is presented here for three specific systems. Statistical streamflow models of increasing forecasting ability are coupled with a recently developed stochastic control method in extensive simulation experiments. The performance of the system is statisticafly evaluated with regard to energy generation and flood and drought prevention. The results indicate that forecast benefits are system specific and may range from quite substantial to fairly minimal.     

THE PLIGHT OF THE URBAN RESERVOIR: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: This paper details the increasing tendency to overdevelop lands adjacent to public reservoirs. The impact on water quality of the pollutant load carried in surface runoff from developed lands is described as well as the depreciation in recreational experience due to loss of scenic horizons. The case study, Spruce Run Reservoir in Clinton, New Jersey, included population and demand projections. Land speculation and proposed development are evaluated on a physical constraint basis. Areas of conflict are outlined and conflict resolutions proposed.     

DETERMINATION OF UNGAGED TRIBUTARY FLOWS AND INTERSEGMENTAL RESERVOIR FLOWS USING SPREADSHEET SOFTWARE1

ABSTRACT: Spreadsheet software was utilized on two related large scale trial and error problems. Gaged streamflow data and known reservoir volumes were used to construct a daily continuity balance in order to estimate the daily mean flows from ungaged portions of a study watershed over one year. Watershed yield coefficients were determined for two diverse types of watersheds with and without significant ground water contribution. Subsequently, a spreadsheet template was devised to ensure than an EPA supported water quality model, WASP, would successfully model the actual segmental volumes of a flood control reservoir. Inlet, outlet, and intersegmental advective flows were determined on a two week average basis using a continuity balance, segmental routing, and known segmental volumes. The protocols described relate the use of microcomputers to the resolution of hydraulic and hydrologic problems requiring iterative solutions.     

THE SOCIAL IMPACT OF RESERVOIR CONSTRUCTION IN THE URBAN FRINGE: A TEN-YEAR COMPARISON1

ABSTRACT This paper examines the social impact of reservoir construction on a rural community group located in the urban fringe of a major metropolitan area in central Ohio. The study data were collected at three intervals over a ten-year period (1970, 1974, 1980). Evaluation of resident opinions in the affected community revealed significant attitude differences over time for four of the five variables measured. The findings revealed that the study group desired more social stability but had accommodated the changes experienced to date. Responses to the attitude scales showed that the people in the study group were well integrated and were closely identified with each other at all three test periods. Attitudes toward the lake project were significantly more positive over time, and in 1980 the collective community group held a basically neutral attitude about the lake. The development agency was also perceived more positively over time.     

APPLICATION OF THE GENETIC ALGORITHM FOR OPTIMIZING OPERATION RULES OF THE LiYuTan RESERVOIR IN TAIWAN1

ABSTRACT: A procedure to apply genetic algorithm to optimize operation rules is proposed and applied to the LiYuTan Reservoir in Taiwan. The designed operation rules are operation zones with discount rates of water supply. The first step of the procedure is to predefine the shape of boundary curves of operation zones according to reservoir storage routing. Then, relatively fewer variables are used to describe the curves, and a last genetic algorithm (GA) is applied to optimize the curves. The procedure is applied to the newly built LiYuTan Reservoir for increasing domestic water demands. Shortage index is used to evaluate the performance of operation zones. A year is divided into 36 operational periods, with each month containing three operational periods. The shortage indexes calculated in operational periods are 9.81, 8.27, and 7.13, respectively, for the reservoir without operation rules, applying operation zones optimized by GA with encoding 36 storage levels for each curve, and adopting operation zones optimized by GA with encoding the curves with predefined shape. The average deficits for the three cases are 77.2, 43.6, and 33.3 (10⁴ m³/day), respectively. The results indicate that operation zones optimized by the proposed procedure have smaller shortage indexes and lower average deficits. In addition, the optimized operation zones have less variation and thus are more practical for operation. Conclusively, the proposed procedure utilizing GA to optimize operation zones with predefined shape can provide better and realistic outcomes through limited iterations.     

REAL CODED GENETIC ALGORITHM OPTIMIZATION OF LONG TERM RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: An optimization and simulation model holds promise as an efficient and robust method for long term reservoir operation, an increasingly important facet of managing water resources. Recently, genetic algorithms have been demonstrated to be highly effective optimization methods. According to previous studies, a real coded genetic algorithm (RGA) has many advantages over a binary coded genetic algorithm. Accordingly, this work applies an RGA to obtain the 10‐day (the traditional period of reservoir operation in Taiwan) operating rule curves for the proposed reservoir system. The RGA is combined with an effective and flexible scheme for coding the reservoir rule curves and applied to an important reservoir in Taiwan, considering a water reservoir development scenario to the year 2021. Each rule curve is evaluated using a complex simulation model to determine a performance index for a given flow series. The process of generating and evaluating decision parameters is repeated until no further improvement in performance is obtained. Many experiments were performed to determine the suitable RGA components, including macro evolutionary (ME) selection and blend‐α crossover. Macro evolution (ME) can be applied to prevent the premature problem of the conventional selection scheme of genetic algorithm. The purpose of adjusting a of a crossover scheme is to determine the exploratory or exploitative degree of various subpopulations. The appropriate rule curve searched by an RGA can minimize the water deficit and maintain the high water level of the reservoir. The results also show that the most promising RGA for this problem consists of these revised operators significantly improves the performance of a system. It is also very efficient for optimizing other highly nonlinear systems.     

MODELING THE EFFECTS OF URBANIZATION ON BASIN WATER YIELD AND RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION1

ABSTRACT: The dam impounding White Rock Lake was completed in 1910 to provide water for the City of Dallas. Since then, land use on the watershed has changed from entirely rural to over 77 percent urban. A model called SWRRB (Simulator for Water Resources in Rural Basins) was utilized to determine the effect of urbanization on water and sediment entering the lake. The simulation results show that, if urbanization had not occurred, then the annual surface runoff would be 135 mm rather than 151 mm and the annual sediment yield would be 4.4 t/ha rather than 4.1 t/ha. Also, the effect of urbanization on delivery ratios was shown and a positive linear correlation was found. Finally, the weather generator in SWRRB was utilized to estimate the loss of reservoir capacity until 2050 for three different land use management scenarios.     

THE OPTIMALITY OF CAPACITY SHARING IN STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING PROBLEMS OF SHARED RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: This paper is concerned with finding an optimal allocation of water entitlements for each of two users of water who share a reservoir. Two instruments of allocation are considered. The first, release sharing, involves sharing the releases from the reservoir; the second, capacity sharing, is concerned with allocating to each user of water a share of inflows, reservoir capacity and leakage and evaporation losses. Stochastic dynamic programming problems of reservoir operation under each type of sharing arrangement are formulated. It is shown that the maximum discounted expected profit from reservoir operation over the life of the storage using capacity sharing is at least as large as that obtained using release sharing and that release sharing is not Pareto efficient.     

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS IN THE USE OF STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING FOR RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: A stochastic dynamic programming model is applied to a small hydroelectric system. The variation in number of stage iterations and the computer time required to reach steady state conditions with changes in the number of storage states is investigated. The increase in computer time required to develop the storage probability distributions with increase in the number of storage states is reviewed. It is found that for an average of seven inflow states, the largest number of storage states for which it is computationally feasible to develop the storage probability distributions is nine. It is shown that use of the dynamic program results based on a small number of storage states results in unrealistically skewed storage probability distributions. These skewed distributions are attributed to “trapping” states at the low end of the storage range.     

RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT RULES DERWED WITH THE AID OF MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING TECHNIQUES1

ABSTRACT: The determination of optimum reservoir operating rules for reservoirs with multiple conflicting objectives is still a difficult task - despite many publications in this field. In this paper a three-step Multi Objective Decision Making (MODM) method is presented, the emphasis of which is placed on the necessity to make the work easy for the decision maker, which many MODM techniques fail to achieve. The method is applied to the development of a compromise optimum operating rule for a multi-purpose reservoir. In the first step of the method stochastic DP is chosen which is combined with the “weighting method” allowing combination of various objectives into one objective function. By systematically varying the weights for the objectives a large number of pareto optimum reservoir operating rules is generated. In the second step of the method the performance of all these operating rules is tested with the aid of a model simulating reservoir operation. The results are statistically analyzed and the reliabilities for attaining the various objectives are computed. The third step of the model applies another MODM technique which allows the decision maker - in a computer dialog - to select his optimum reservoir operating rule from the large number of pareto optimum solutions generated in step 1. Here he can specify his preferences for the various objectives. For this purpose two alternative MODM techniques are offered: Compromise Programming and the SEMOPS method. Their performance is shown along with the generation and selection of operating rules for the multi-objective Wupper reservoir system in Germany.     

APPLICATION OF THE HEC-4 MONTHLY STREAM FLOW SIMULATION MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The HEC-4 monthly stream flow simulation model, developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, California, is used to extend the available historical stream flow records in the Central Ohio area. The principal objective of this paper is to examine the effectiveness of the HEC-4 model in generating synthetic monthly flows. Important statistical parameters are evaluated in order to relate the statistical properties of the historical and generated flows. In doing so, it is observed that the mean, standard deviation, and skewness of the generated flows are consistently larger than the corresponding estimates based on historical flows. However, results show that these statistics, as well as the lag-1 serial correlation, are generally well maintained by the generated sequences. The degree to which any statistical dissimilarities would be critical, from an engineering design point of view, is demonstrated by utilizing their low flow characteristics. Estimates of reservoir safe-yields, based on a nonsequential mass-curve analysis of the historical and generated low flows, indicate a nominal difference in this particular study.     

ESTIMATED STREAM FLOW REQUIREMENTS FOR FISHES OF THE WASHITA RIVER BELOW FOSS RESERVOIR,WESTERN OKLAHOMA1

Velocity and depth preference curves for juvenile and adult red shiners (Notropis lutrensis) were developed for each season of the year. The incremental methodology, developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for quantifying the amount of physical habitat available for fish, was applied as a basis for recommending minimum stream flows for life stages of red shiners and channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) in the Washita River below Foss Reservoir. The minimum stream flow required to support populations of red shiners and channel catfish was estimated to be 0.60 m³/s during all months except April and May, during which flushing flows of 3.0 m³/s were recommended. Under drought conditions a contingency flow of 0.18 m³/s was recommended for August through March, a flushing flow of 2.4 m³/s for April and May, and a flow of 0.30 m³/s for channel catfish spawning in June and July. Standing crop of adult red shiners per weighted usable area averaged 2.73 g/m² (27 kg/ha) for two sites on the Washita River. A positive relation between standing crop and weighted usable area was suggested. Use of the incremental methodology on the study reach below Foss Reservoir required 96 person-hours of labor, excluding training, travel, and developing preference curves, and a total cost of $1,762, of which $1,200 was for the purchase of equipment.