A decision inventory approach for improving decision support for climate change impact assessment and adaptation

Assessing and adapting to the impacts of climate change requires balancing social, economic, and environmental factors in the context of an ever-expanding range of objectives, uncertainties, and management options. The term decision support describes a diverse class of resources designed to help manage this complexity and assist decision makers in understanding impacts and evaluating management options. Most climate-related decision support resources implicitly assume that decision making is primarily limited by the quantity and quality of available information. However, a wide variety of evidence suggests that institutional, political, and communication processes are also integral to organizational decision making. Decision support resources designed to address these processes are underrepresented in existing tools. These persistent biases in the design and delivery of decision support may undermine efforts to move decision support from research to practice. The development of new approaches to decision support that consider a wider range of relevant issues is limited by the lack of information about the characteristics, context, and alternatives associated with climate-related decisions. We propose a new approach called a decision assessment and decision inventory that will provide systematic information describing the relevant attributes of climate-related decisions. This information can be used to improve the design of decision support resources, as well as to prioritize research and development investments. Application of this approach will help provide more effective decision support based on a balanced foundation of analytical tools, environmental data, and relevant information about decisions and decision makers.     

Exploring farmer preference shaping in international agricultural climate change adaptation regimes

Questions of equity, justice, and fairness in the international agricultural adaptation regime have emerged in recent years, prompting interest in regime power dynamics. Here, a three-dimensional conceptual framework of ‘power as domination’ is applied to the UNFCCC adaptation regime. We argue that this ‘power-over’ framing is an important lens through which to view adaptation, a field dominated by ‘power-to’, capacity-based constructs. The framework distinguishes between power-over manifesting through decision-making, agenda setting and preference shaping. Through a literature review we demonstrate that first and second dimension behavioral views of power-over fail to account for the subtle ways in which the interests and preferences of smallholder farmers are unknowingly shaped and restricted within the regime. Potential sources of third dimension preference shaping power are explored in a survey with high-level decision makers involved in National Adaptation Plans (NAP) development in seven countries. The results suggest that several inter-related features of the international agriculture adaptation regime collectively contribute to the shaping of interests and preferences of smallholders: prevailing discourses of uncertainty and the perceived limited capacity of smallholders; the resulting privileged status of ‘expert’ decision makers; the predominance of neoliberal development rationalities; and systemic biases resulting from the nation state as the principle unit of UNFCCC negotiation. These forces lie beyond the explanatory scope of first and second dimensions of power-over and help to explain why stakeholder engagement in adaptation decision making remains superficial in nature and why adaptation responses in agriculture can be considered ‘common and non-differentiated’. We argue for increased awareness of third dimension manifestations and impacts of power in adaptation literature to facilitate the improved participation of marginalized stakeholders in UNFCCC and domestic adaptation decision making forums, to increase the diversity of adaptation options available to smallholders, and ultimately, to improve the attribution of responsibility for adaptation outcomes.     

Economic analysis of adaptive strategies for flood risk management under climate change

Climate change requires reconsideration of flood risk management strategies. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA), an economic decision-support tool, has been widely applied to assess these strategies. This paper aims to describe and discuss probabilistic extensions of CBA to identify welfare-maximising flood risk management strategies under climate change. First, uncertainty about the changes in return periods of hydro-meteorological extremes is introduced by probability-weighted climate scenarios. Second, the analysis is extended by learning about climate change impacts. Learning occurs upon the probabilistic arrival of information. We distinguish between learning from scientific progress, from statistical evidence and from flood disasters. These probabilistic extensions can be used to analyse and compare the economic efficiency and flexibility of flood risk management strategies under climate change. We offer a critical discussion of the scope of such extensions and options for increasing flexibility. We find that uncertainty reduction from scientific progress may reduce initial investments, while other types of learning may increase initial investments. This requires analysing effects of different types of learning. We also find that probabilistic information about climate change impacts and learning is imprecise. We conclude that risk-based CBA with learning improves the flexibility of flood risk management strategies under climate change. However, CBA provides subjective estimates of expected outcomes and reflects different decision-maker preferences than those captured in robustness analyses. We therefore advocate robustness analysis in addition to, or combined with, cost-benefit analysis to support local investment decisions on flood risk reduction and global strategies on allocation of adaptation funds for flood risk management.     

The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies—A Danish water management example

We propose a generic framework to characterize climate change adaptation uncertainty according to three dimensions: level, source and nature. Our framework is different, and in this respect more comprehensive, than the present UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach and could be used to address concerns that the IPCC approach is oversimplified. We have studied the role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning using examples from four Danish water related sectors. The dominating sources of uncertainty differ greatly among issues; most uncertainties on impacts are epistemic (reducible) by nature but uncertainties on adaptation measures are complex, with ambiguity often being added to impact uncertainties. Strategies to deal with uncertainty in climate change adaptation should reflect the nature of the uncertainty sources and how they interact with risk level and decision making: (i) epistemic uncertainties can be reduced by gaining more knowledge; (ii) uncertainties related to ambiguity can be reduced by dialogue and knowledge sharing between the different stakeholders; and (iii) aleatory uncertainty is, by its nature, non-reducible. The uncertainty cascade includes many sources and their propagation through technical and socio-economic models may add substantially to prediction uncertainties, but they may also cancel each other. Thus, even large uncertainties may have small consequences for decision making, because multiple sources of information provide sufficient knowledge to justify action in climate change adaptation.     

Benefits and limitations of the ecosystem services concept in environmental policy and decision making: Some stakeholder perspectives

The concept of ecosystem services (ES) is increasingly being used in environmental policy and decision making. We report here on the empirical results which emerged from stakeholder discussions within the PRESS (PEER Research on EcoSystem Services) project on certain unresolved challenges related to the use of the ES concept in decision making. The results show that the occurrence of synergies and trade-offs between different ES and their relevance for decision making depends significantly on the scale involved (in particular regarding the levels of policy formulation and policy implementation respectively) and on the specific ways in which ecosystems are managed (e.g. different practices in forestry and agriculture). We conclude that using the concept of ecosystem services, would enable a comprehensive evaluation of policy impacts. Such an evaluation would contribute to an increased congruence between policies by uncovering and discussing trade-offs and realize synergies. Crucial to this, however, is a sound assessment that incorporates the diversity of stakeholder perceptions, knowledge and preferences at the different scales.     

不确定性流域污染负荷优化分配模型及其应用

流域优化决策模型以最优化建模方法指导流域管理决策过程,然而流域系统的不确定性会导致决策存在一定风险.本研究通过建立区间参数机会约束线性规划(ICILP)模型来处理流域决策过程中的不确定性,并将该模型运用于太滆运河流域优化决策中,探讨在不同违反概率下系统最优解.结果表明,随着允许入湖量约束违反概率增加,系统对污染物削减量和削减成本有所降低.由于受到经济成本和削减量约束,系统优先减小环境代价较大、削减效率较低的工程项目规模.但受到最低处理率约束,违反概率增加到一定水平时各工程项目趋于定值.虽然较高的违反概率使系统成本降低,但也会导致削减效率降低,不利于流域保护.因此,在实际管理中应根据管理需求选择合适的削减方案以达到保护流域水质的目标.     

Effective risk governance for environmental policy making: A knowledge management perspective

Effective risk management within environmental policy making requires knowledge on natural, economic and social systems to be integrated; knowledge characterised by complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity. We describe a case study in a (UK) central government department exploring how risk governance supports and hinders this challenging integration of knowledge. Forty-five semi-structured interviews were completed over a two year period. We found that lateral knowledge transfer between teams working on different policy areas was widely viewed as a key source of knowledge. However, the process of lateral knowledge transfer was predominantly informal and unsupported by risk governance structures. We argue this made decision quality vulnerable to a loss of knowledge through staff turnover, and time and resource pressures. Our conclusion is that the predominant form of risk governance framework, with its focus on centralised decision-making and vertical knowledge transfer is insufficient to support risk-based, environmental policy making. We discuss how risk governance can better support environmental policy makers through systematic knowledge management practices.     

How to be a more effective environmental scientist in management and policy contexts

This paper is intended for young researchers with an environmental conscience, alerting them that a self-centred ecology can work against conservation and other desirable goals. I propose that there is confusion in the biophysical ecologists’ community about the role of knowledge, stemming from several already surpassed beliefs that have been strongly criticized by scholars in the field of science and technology studies. In particular, environmental scientists still often seem trapped in the information deficit model, assuming a linear and unidirectional flow of knowledge from experts to users. This leads to an incomplete understanding and unrealistic expectations of ongoing processes of citizen participation (co-production of knowledge), impatience regarding the speed at which issues can be dealt with by politics, and a fuzzy notion of the role of our convictions regarding the value of nature conservation when we are consulted as experts. I analyse the consequences of disregarding tacit knowledge, i.e. the one knowledge beyond that codified in academic papers and books. I emphasize that preferences and values have a large influence on how we perceive, process, and act (or postpone to act) on information on our non-exclusive roles as scientists, decision makers or citizens. I argue that this is why political and ideological preferences have a large influence not only on which teams are appointed to solve problems, but also on which situations are perceived as problematic and given higher priorities. I include a cheat-sheet to enhance communication with decision-makers and other non-scientists that could prevent environmental zeal to be transformed into society’s annoyance and our eventual irrelevance. I plea for a more realistic attitude towards ecological research, highlighting that in environmental debates we are also long-term stakeholders, and not only casual, external and aseptic observers.     

网络技术在环境保护中的应用

探讨开发基于新一代B／S计算模式的环保信息管理系统，增强信息技术在环保中的应用，最大限度地实现信息资源共享，为环保管理与决策提供数据支持与服务。     

Risk-cost trade-offs in environmental risk management decision-making

Risk-cost trade-offs are deemed to provide a basis for selecting between those risk reductions which are economic and those which are non-economic. Insufficient work has been done in environmental risk management decision-making practice to validate this assumption, or to develop an analytical framework within which it may be employed. Empirical evidence from the literature is offered for the existence of risk-cost trade-offs and the relationship of risk-cost trade-offs to the benefits side of the management decision-making issue is discussed. The risk-cost trade-off curve alone does not provide a complete basis for selecting between economic and non-economic risk-cost combinations. When combined with information on the willingness-to-pay for risk reductions, the risk-cost trade-off curve may be used to distinguish between risk reduction possibilities in a risk management decision-making context. Results allow for a more developed theoretical decision- making framework that, when amended for uncertainty, produces decision criteria useful for environmental risk management decision-making.     

榆林市环境信息综合办公一体化的设想

为提高环保部门环境监管的效率和决策水平,实现现代化环境信息管理,在分析榆林市环境信息化建设的基础上,从环境管理的角度出发,结合榆林市环境信息化建设现状,将环境信息系统(EIS)的专业性和综合办公系统(OA)的大众性相结合,使两大系统在国家环境信息化建设的总架构下实现共享,设想环境信息与综合办公一体化,并对该一体化系统核心单元及其功能进行了叙述。     

Uncertainty communication in environmental assessments: views from the Dutch science-policy interface

Scientific assessments of environmental problems, and policy responses to those problems, involve uncertainties of many sorts. Meanwhile, potential impacts of wrong decisions can be far-reaching. This article explores views on uncertainty and uncertainty communication in the Dutch science-policy interface and studies several issues concerning presentation of uncertainty information. Respondents considered uncertainty communication to be important, but it should be concise and policy relevant. Several factors influence policy relevance, including the place of an issue in the policy cycle, and its novelty, topicality and controversiality. Respondents held particular interest in explicit communication on the implications of uncertainty. Related to this, they appreciated information on different sources and types of uncertainty and qualitative aspects of uncertainty (e.g. pedigree charts). The article also studies probability terms, particularly for IPCC's 33–66% probability interval (‘about as likely as not’). Several terms worked reasonably well, with a median interpretation of 40–60%. Finally, as various target groups have different information needs and different amounts of attention for various parts of a report or communication process, it is important to progressively disclose uncertainty information throughout the communication. Improved communication of uncertainty information leads to a deeper understanding and increased awareness of the phenomenon of uncertainty and its policy implications.     

基于非线性响应函数和蒙特卡洛模拟的滇池流域污染负荷削减情景分析

为定量了解滇池外海水质对流域污染负荷削减率的响应变化程度,并评估相关决策的潜在风险,在长期的水质模拟结果基础之上,本文使用内嵌非线性响应函数的蒙特卡罗模拟方法,在2个不确定性水平下（5%和10%的变异范围）分析滇池外海为达到3个水质目标情景（Ⅲ类、Ⅳ类和Ⅴ类）的污染负荷削减及其不确定性.模型结果表明,在2种不确定性水平...     

Environmental decision making in multi-stakeholder contexts: applicability of life cycle thinking in development planning and implementation

According to the targets set for sustainability, integrating the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programs is one of the main goals for development projects. A major challenge in the development field is cross-sectoral integrated planning and achieving multi-stakeholder consensus for collaborative joint projects, especially when sustainability is a goal. This increases the complexity of the multi-stakeholder interaction in decision making and requires enhanced mechanisms for stakeholder participation, coordination, and commitment beyond narrow self-interest. A critical aspect in the decision making process is to enable stakeholders to not only interpret and make decisions based on expert judgments, but also to appropriately involve the relevant parties in the research and decision making process. Therefore, scientific analyses in multi-stakeholder contexts have to be more transparent, participatory, and stakeholder-based in order to provide useful information to assist responsible decision making.This paper presents an outline of a stakeholder-based life cycle assessment approach that can be used to support sustainable decision making in multi-stakeholder contexts. The framework is discussed and compared to other common methods used to support environmental decision making in development projects. We argue that the fundamental concept of life cycle thinking can be effectively used to incorporate stakeholders in the research and decision making process, which can lead to more comprehensive, yet achievable assessments in collaboration with stakeholders. Life cycle thinking is not just a way to examine environmental impacts of activities, but also a way to comprehend and visualize a broader set of upstream and downstream consequences of decisions in development planning and implementation. A life cycle framework including the mapping of stakeholder involvement at each activity in upstream and downstream stages would give stakeholders a holistic view that they otherwise may not have.     

Adaptive management of marine mega-fauna in a changing climate

Management of marine mega-fauna in a changing climate is constrained by a series of uncertainties, often related to climate change projections, ecological responses, and the effectiveness of strategies in alleviating climate change impacts. Uncertainties can be reduced over time through adaptive management. Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. To successfully implement the adaptive management cycle, different steps (planning, designing, learning and adjusting) need to be systematically implemented to inform earlier steps in an iterative way. Despite the critical role that adaptive management is likely to play in addressing the impacts of climate change on marine mega-fauna few managers have successfully implemented an adaptive management approach. We discuss the approaches necessary to implement each step of an adaptive management cycle to manage marine mega-fauna in a changing climate, highlighting the steps that require further attention to fully implement the process. Examples of sharks and rays (Selachimorpha and Batoidea) on the Great Barrier Reef and little penguins, Eudyptula minor, in south-eastern Australia are used as case studies. We found that successful implementation of the full adaptive management cycle to marine mega-fauna needs managers and researchers to: (1) obtain a better understanding of the capacity of species to adapt to climate change to inform the planning step; (2) identify strategies to directly address impacts in the marine environment to inform the designing step; and (3) develop systematic evaluation and monitoring programs to inform the learning step. Further, legislation needs to flexible to allow for management to respond.     

基于多目标空间分析的危险废物决策支持模型研究

我国日益增长的危险废物对于环境安全和人体健康都构成极大威胁,如何高效、科学的对危险废物从产生到最终处置的全过程进行管理和决策是我国危险废物管理工作面临的重要问题。区域危险废物的管理和环境风险控制是一个涉及到废物特性、自然环境和社会经济等诸多因素的综合决策过程。文章通过综合考虑危险废物处理处置过程中的环境影响因素、经济因素和环境风险因素,结合空间分析技术和多目标决策的方法,设计了一个危险废物多目标空间决策支持模型,并以广州为例进行了模拟应用。危险废物管理的决策者根据不同的侧重点,通过本模型在备选废物处理处置中心中确定建设地点,同时能够使用本模型选择危险废物的最佳运输路径。本模型为危险废物管理和决策支持提供了一种直观、科学和实用的支持,具有一定的理论和现实意义。     

基于水质模拟的不确定条件下两阶段随机水资源规划模型

针对流域内不同企业的水资源分配及企业生产污染排放导致的水环境问题,运用区间两阶段随机规划的方法,耦合区间两阶段模型（ITSP）和区间水质模型（IS-P）,建立不确定两阶段随机水质-水量耦合规划模型（ITSP-SP）.该模型以流域内系统利益最大为目标函数,模拟了流域内各个企业的水量分配及排污过程中河道水质变化,并在保证河流水质达标前提下优化预计分配水量,调整企业生产规模.通过模型运算得到区间解,为管理者提供了多样的决策方案.并且,该模型充分考虑不确定因素对系统利益的影响,能够有效的规避系统决策失误及方案缺失现象.     

Exploring tensions and conflicts in invasive species management: The case of Asian carp

There is a growing recognition that scientific and social conflict pervades invasive species management, but there is a need for empirical work that can help better understand these conflicts and how they can be addressed. We examined the tensions and conflicts facing invasive Asian carp management in Minnesota by conducting 16 in-depth interviews with state and federal agency officials, academics, and stakeholders. Interviewees discussed the tensions and conflicts they saw impacting management, their implications, and what could be done to address them. We found three key areas of conflict and tension in Asian carp management: 1) scientific uncertainty concerning the impacts of Asian carp and the efficacy and non-target effects of possible management actions; 2) social uncertainty concerning both the lack of societal agreement on how to respond to Asian carp and the need to avoid acting from apathy and/or fear; and 3) the desired approach to research and management – whether it is informed by “political need” or “biological reality”. Our study of these tensions and conflicts reveals their importance to Asian carp management and to invasive species management, more broadly. We conclude with a discussion of possible ways to address these areas of tension and conflict, including the potential of deliberative, participatory approaches to risk-related decision making and the need to productively engage with apathy and fear.     

A rough set-based quality function deployment (QFD) approach for environmental performance evaluation: a case of offshore oil and gas operations

Activities in offshore oil and gas (OOG) that cause environmental impacts can be systematically managed through an environmental management system (EMS). Environmental performance evaluation (EPE) is an essential part of an EMS. However, previous studies on EPE indicate that existing lists of indicators little insight into how indicators are modified to more accurately assess environmental performance.In this paper, a way is proposed to identify and define specific environmental performance indicators on a case-by-case basis, which consists of five steps: (1) describing environmental requirements; (2) determining favourable outcomes corresponding to the requirements; (3) identifying required activities or issues to achieve the outcomes; (4) searching for proper measures of the activities or issues; and (5) generating a list of key indicators. Based on these steps, a quality function deployment (QFD) approach is developed to determine key indicators and evaluate environmental performance. To handle uncertainties in QFD, the decision makers’ evaluations are quantified through rough numbers using the concept of rough sets. The outputs of the proposed approach are different environmental performance indices. Using these indices, decision makers can easily determine whether an improved performance has been achieved through an EMS. The proposed approach is transparent and promising for use as a unified tool for EPE. An application of the proposed approach is demonstrated through a numerical example.     

Multilevel water,biodiversity and climate adaptation governance: evaluating adaptive management in Lesotho

In many cases in which climate change affects natural resources, impacts are uncertain and adaptation to climate change often involves collective action problems at the local level, which are embedded in multilevel governance regimes. Adaptive management (AM) is an emerging approach to deal with such uncertainty and complexity by promoting multilevel institutions that are robust to change and able to learn. Much of the literature evaluating AM in multilevel governance regimes, however, focuses only on the adherence to certain structural features said to make AM successful, leaving aside the question whether AM actually produces desired outcomes. This paper evaluates AM in multilevel regimes also in terms of the outcomes they produce. To this end, we first apply the Management and Transition Framework (MTF) in order to describe three multilevel regimes in Lesotho. For each regime we then observe whether it adheres to the structure features of AM. Finally, we evaluate the extent to which the outcomes, natural resource management projects, are conducive to Ostrom's (1990) ‘design principles’ for sustainable common-pool resource management. We find that, though no ideal ‘adaptive regime’ is found in Lesotho, the results confirm the AM hypotheses that decentralised decision-making, open information sources, and plurality of user interests lead to improved outcomes. Conversely, elements of the climate regime are found not to be adaptive. Our findings also confirm the appropriateness of AM as a governance approach to climate adaptation.