Test of a Modelling System for Estimating Nitrogen Leaching – A Pilot Study in a Small Agricultural Catchment

Nitrogen leaching is a world-wide concern for the quality of ground- and surfacewater. Measures to abate this is still limited by a lack of understanding mechanisms behind all factors describing the leaching process, time lags between countermeasures and improvement in waterquality and spatial distribution of nitrogen leaching. The purpose of this study was to do an initial test of the SOILNDB model system which is built on the existing mechanistic SOIL and SOILN models and an automatic parameterization procedure for use of simplified input data. The test was done by simulating nitrogen leaching from each of the 150 fields in a small catchment during a three-year study period. The simulated mean root-zone nitrogen leaching rate from all the fields in the catchment was compared to measurements of nitrogen flow in the stream draining the catchment and showed good agreement in between-year dynamics.     

Future Trends and Mitigation Options for Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Developing Country of the Middle East Region: a Case Study of Lebanon’s Road Transport Sector

The road transport system in Lebanon is one of the most unsustainable in the Middle East region due to, in large part, the absence of a national transportation strategy. This study proposes mitigation measures based on Lebanon’s commitments for reducing fossil fuel use and CO₂ emissions from road transport by increasing the share of fuel-efficient and hybrid electric vehicles and increasing the utilization of the existing bus service. Results show that increasing the market share of fuel-efficient vehicles to 35% in 2040 stabilizes energy use and emissions. The addition of hybrid vehicles to the first strategy, with a target of 10% market share by 2040, leads to 11% additional savings. Increasing the share of bus passenger kilometers traveled to 45% in 2040 leads to a reversal of adverse impacts. A combined strategy of all three measures leads to 63% reductions in 2040 compared to 2010, which is even superior to their cumulative savings.     

Modelling the Balance of Metals in the Amended Soil for the Case of ‘Atmosphere–Plant–Soil’ System

Changing the concepts of economic development and introducing new amendments can hardly decrease the accumulation in the soil of such pollutants as metals, remaining there for a long time. The predictive models for describing the balance of metals in the soil, which are based on the ‘atmosphere–plant–soil’ system and reflect the complicated physical–chemical nature of the metals’ migration, expressed by coefficients obtained in long-term observations in natural conditions, allow for evaluating long-term concentration of metals in the soil. The model BALANS evaluates self-purification of soil, taking into account the uptake of metals of aerogenic origin by the soil together with amendments, their physical–chemical migration and the type of microrelief determining its intensity as well as the absorbed biomass of plants and the removal of metals with crops. In this model, the half-period of metals’ washing out from the soil, found for the microrelief characteristic of low places, exceeds 200 years for Ni, Cr and Pb and makes 90 and 150 years for Zn and Cu, respectively.     

Investments in Power Generation Under Uncertainty—a MIP Specification and Large-Scale Application for EU

Investments in power generation constitute a typical budget allocation problem in the context of multiple objectives, while all factors influencing investor’s decisions for power plants are subject to considerable uncertainties. The paper introduces a multi-objective stochastic model designed to optimize budget allocation decisions for power generation in the context of risk aversion taking into account several sources of uncertainty, especially with regard to volatility of fossil fuel and electricity prices, technological costs, and climate policy variability. Probability distributions for uncertain factors influencing investment decisions are directly derived from the stochastic global energy model PROMETHEUS and thus they take into account complex interactions between variables in the systemic context. In order to fully incorporate stochastic characteristics of the problem, the model is specified as an optimization problem in which the probability that an objective exceeds a given threshold is maximized (risk aversion) subject to a set of deterministic and probabilistic constraints. The model is formulated as a mixed integer program providing complete flexibility on the joint distributions of rates of return of technologies competing for investments, as it can handle non-symmetric distributions and take automatically into account complex covariance patterns as emerging from comprehensive PROMETHEUS stochastic results. The analysis shows that risk is a crucial factor for power generation investments with investors not opting for technologies subject to uncertainty related to climate policies and fossil fuel prices. On the other hand, combination of options with negative covariance tends to benefit in the context of risk-hedging behavior.     

Soil tillage erosion estimated by using magnetism of soils—a case study from Bulgaria

A detailed field and laboratory study on small 0.84-ha test site of agricultural land near Sofia (Bulgaria) has been carried out in order to test the applicability of magnetic methods in soil erosion estimation in the particular case of strongly magnetic parent material. Field measurements of magnetic susceptibility were carried out with grid size of 6 m, resulting in 258 data points. Bulk soil material was gathered from 78 grid points. Natural, non-disturbed soil section was sampled near the agricultural field for reference profile of complete undisturbed soil. Surface susceptibility measurements reveal well-defined maxima down slope which, however, cannot be assigned directly to a certain depth interval, corresponding with susceptibilities along the non-disturbed soil profile. This is caused by the high magnetic susceptibility of the lithogenic coarse-grained magnetic fraction. Non-uniqueness is resolved by using magnetic susceptibility of coarse (1 mm >?d?> 63 μm) and fine (d < 63 μm) mechanical fractions and the parameter Δχ = 100*(χ _coarse???χ _fine)/χ _bulk (%). It shows increased values in the C-horizon of undisturbed soil profile, which corresponds to a certain part of the studied area. After the application of an empirical model to predict the values of magnetic parameter after tillage homogenization and removal of soil material from the surface, the amount of soil loss is estimated.     

An analysis framework for characterizing and explaining development of EIA legislation in developing countries—Illustrated for Georgia,Ghana and Yemen

Actors in the field of international development co-operation supporting the development of EIA legislation in developing countries often do not achieve the results envisaged. The performance of EIA in these countries often remains weak. One reason, we assume, is that often those actors support the establishment of overly ambitious EIA legislation that cannot achieve its objectives in the light of constraining contexts. To provide more effective support we need to better understand the enabling and constraining contextual factors that influence the development of EIA legislation and to which support actors should align itself. In this article a new analysis framework for classifying, characterizing and explaining the development of EIA legislation is described, measured in terms of ambition levels. Ambitions are defined as intentions the EIA authorities aim to fulfill, expressed in formal EIA legislation. Three country cases, Yemen, Georgia and Ghana are used to illustrate the usefulness of our framework and as a first test to refine the framework. We have formulated the following five hypotheses that complement and refine our analysis framework. One, EIA legislation may develop multilinearly in terms of ambition levels. Two, ambitions in EIA legislation seem to be influenced to a great extent by the power and capacity of, on the one hand, the environmental authorities supporting EIA and, on the other hand, the sector authorities hindering the development of EIA. Three, the political system is the most important context factor influencing the rules of policy-making and the power of the different actors involved. Four, the importance of context factors on the development of ambitions is dependent on the phase of EIA system development. Five, some ambitions seem to be influenced by particular factors; for instance the ambitions for the object of study seem to be influenced by the level of environmental awareness of the sector ministries and parliament.The analysis framework may also assist actors involved in the development of EIA legislation in setting ambitions for EIA legislation that are feasible within the context in which it will be developed and implemented. Application of a country-specific EIA model would seem to be the preferred model to develop EIA legislation because by taking capacities of actors and context factors as a starting point, it offers more potential to well-performing EIA systems.     

Optimisation and application of the voltammetric technique for speciation of chromium in the Patos Lagoon Estuary—Brazil

The chemical speciation analysis of chromium in one of the most important South American Estuary was performed for the first time. Samples were collected in Patos Lagoon Estuary (Brazil) and were analysed by adsorptive cathodic stripping voltammetry, with the following analytical figures of merit: limit of detection, 0.1 nmol L(-1); precision RSD?=?3%, n?=?7; linearity, from limit of quantitation up to 20 nmol L(-1); and accuracy of 99.8%, expressed as recovery. No labile chromium forms were identified in samples, beside industries and a city were near the study area. It is pointed out a reverse correlation between total and non-active chromium and salinity, which could be explained by biogeochemical processes.     

Remote-sensing-based analysis of landscape change in the desiccated seabed of the Aral Sea—a potential tool for assessing the hazard degree of dust and salt storms

With the recession of the Aral Sea in Central Asia, once the world’s fourth largest lake, a huge new saline desert emerged which is nowadays called the Aralkum. Saline soils in the Aralkum are a major source for dust and salt storms in the region. The aim of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal land cover change dynamics in the Aralkum and discuss potential implications for the recent and future dust and salt storm activity in the region. MODIS satellite time series were classified from 2000–2008 and change of land cover was quantified. The Aral Sea desiccation accelerated between 2004 and 2008. The area of sandy surfaces and salt soils, which bear the greatest dust and salt storm generation potential increased by more than 36 %. In parts of the Aralkum desalinization of soils was found to take place within 4–8 years. The implication of the ongoing regression of the Aral Sea is that the expansion of saline surfaces will continue. Knowing the spatio-temporal dynamics of both the location and the surface characteristics of the source areas for dust and salt storms allows drawing conclusions about the potential hazard degree of the dust load. The remote-sensing-based land cover assessment presented in this study could be coupled with existing knowledge on the location of source areas for an early estimation of trends in shifting dust composition. Opportunities, limits, and requirements of satellite-based land cover classification and change detection in the Aralkum are discussed.     

Systematic monitoring of heathy woodlands in a Mediterranean climate—a practical assessment of methods

Practical and useful vegetation monitoring methods are needed, and data compatibility and validation of remotely sensed data are desirable. Methods have not been adequately tested for heathy woodlands. We tested the feasibility of detecting species composition shifts in remnant woodland in South Australia, comparing historical (1986) plot data with temporal replicates (2010). We compared the uniformity of species composition among spatially scattered versus spatially clustered plots. At two sites, we compared visual and point-intercept estimation of cover and species diversity. Species composition (presence/absence) shifted between 1986 and 2010. Species that significantly shifted in frequency had low cover. Observations of decreasing species were consistent with predictions from temperature response curves (generalised additive models) for climate change over the period. However, long-term trends could not be distinguished from medium-term dynamics or short-term changes in visibility from this dataset. Difficulties were highlighted in assessing compositional change using historical baselines established for a different purpose in terms of spatial sampling and accuracy of replicate plots, differences in standard plot methods and verification of species identifications. Spatially clustered replicate plots were more similar in species composition than spatially scattered plots, improving change detection potential but decreasing area of inference. Visual surveys detected more species than point-intercepts. Visual cover estimates differed little from point-intercepts although underestimating cover in some instances relative to intercepts. Point-intercepts provide more precise cover estimates of dominant species but took longer and were difficult in steep, heathy terrain. A decision tree based on costs and benefits is presented assessing monitoring options based on data presented. The appropriate method is a function of available resources, the need for precise cover estimates versus adequate species detection, replication and practical considerations such as access and terrain.     

The assessment and prediction of temporal variations in surface water quality—a case study

In order to optimize the processes of sampling, monitoring, and management, the initial aim of this paper was to develop a model for the definition and prediction of temporal changes of water quality. In the case of the Morava River Basin (Serbia), the patterns of temporal changes have been recognized by applying different multivariate statistical techniques. The results of the conducted cluster analysis are the indicators of the existence of the three monitoring periods: the low-water, transitional, and high-water periods, which is in accordance with changes in the water flow in the analyzed river basin. A possibility of reducing the initial data set and recognizing the main pollution sources was examined by carrying out the principal component/factor analysis. The results indicate that the natural factor has a dominant influence in temporal groups. In order to recognize the discriminatory water quality parameters, a discriminant analysis (DA) was carried out. Conducting the DA enabled a significant reduction in the data set by the extraction of two parameters (the water temperature and electrical conductivity). Furthermore, the artificial neural network technique was used for testing the possibility of predicting changes in the values of the discriminant factors in the monitoring periods. The reliability of this method for the prediction of temporal variations of both extracted parameters within all temporal clusters has been proven.     

Hydrologic–Economic Model for Managing Irrigation Intensity in Irrigation Areas under Watertable and Soil Salinity Targets

This paper gives mathematical details and sample applications of SWAGMAN Farm (SWAGMAN, Salt Water and Groundwater Management), a farm-scale hydrologic economic model that integrates agronomic, climatic, irrigation, hydrogeological and economic aspects of irrigated agriculture. The model is capable of determining optimum mix of land use to keep watertable and soil salinity within acceptable limits while maximising the economic returns. Alternatively, the model can simulate water and salt balance and economics of a given cropping preference. Web-based and Geographic Information Systems versions of the model are available for integration with the environmental reporting systems of the irrigation areas.     

Estimation of Emissions of γ-Hexachlorcyclohexane from the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence Ecosystem Using a Coupled Efficient Kalman Filter–Atmospheric Transport–Soil Model

An efficient linear Kalman filter has been combined with a coupled atmospheric transport and soil–air exchange model to determine organochlorine pesticides emissions on the regional scale. In this study, results of -HCH emissions from the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence ecosystem, estimated from the coupled model, are presented and discussed. A source receptor technique is used to identify a priori the locations of emission sources of -HCH, the emissions are then updated through a Kalman filtering procedure which minimizes the weighted difference between the predicted mixing ratios from the coupled model and the measured concentrations over the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence river region. Two experiments using the inverse algorithm are carried out. In the first experiment, the coupled atmospheric transport and soil–air exchange model is implemented to predict -HCH air and soil concentrations. Emissions are then updated every 12 days using the updated soil concentrations and emission factors. However, the updated emissions are not input into the coupled atmospheric transport and soil–air exchange model. On the other hand, in the second experiment the updated emissions are fed back to the coupled model, so that the model is reinitialized in each 12 days. The results from the inverse technique for the year 1995 have been compared with grided -HCH emission inventory in Canada, generated by emission factors. It is shown that the estimated emissions of -HCH are consistent with the measured emissions. It is found that the St. Lawrence valley has larger emissions of -HCH than the Great Lakes region, indicating an opposite distribution to the emission usage inventory, but in agreement with the measured -HCH concentration.     

Consideration of climate change impacts and adaptation in EIA practice — Perspectives of actors in Austria and Germany

Current political discussions and developments indicate the importance and urgency of incorporating climate change considerations into EIA processes. The recent revision of the EU Directive 2014/52/EU on Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) requires changes in the EIA practice of the EU member states. This paper investigates the extent to which the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) can contribute to an early consideration of climate change consequences in planning processes. In particular the roles of different actors in order to incorporate climate change impacts and adaptation into project planning subject to EIA at the appropriate levels are a core topic. Semi-structured expert interviews were carried out with representatives of the main infrastructure companies and institutions responsible in these sectors in Austria, which have to carry out EIA regularly. In a second step expert interviews were conducted with EIA assessors and EIA authorities in Austria and Germany, in order to examine the extent to which climate-based changes are already considered in EIA processes. This paper aims to discuss the different perspectives in the current EIA practice with regard to integrating climate change impacts as well as barriers and solutions identified by the groups of actors involved, namely project developers, environmental competent authorities and consultants (EIA assessors/practitioners). The interviews show that different groups of actors consider the topic to different degrees. Downscaling of climate change scenarios is in this context both, a critical issue with regards to availability of data and costs. Furthermore, assistance for the interpretation of relevant impacts, to be deducted from climate change scenarios, on the specific environmental issues in the area is needed. The main barriers identified by the EIA experts therefore include a lack of data as well as general uncertainty as to how far climate change should be considered in the process without reliable data but in the presence of knowledge about possible consequences at an abstract level. A joint strategy on how to cope with uncertain prognoses about main impacts on environmental issues for areas without reliable data requires a discussion and cooperation between EIA consultants and environmental authorities.     

Monitoring and analysis of natural vegetation in a Special Protected Area of Mountain Antichasia—Meteora, central Greece

Natural ecosystems are renewable resources with special environmental, social, and economical attributes and characteristics. The increasing need of human beings for a better environment results in the use of new technologies that offer many advantages in detecting changes in the ecosystems. Remote sensing tools, technology, and the spatial analysis of the Geographic Information System were used in determining any changes in this study which attempts to classify land cover over a 10-year period. The study area is in Thessaly, central Greece, and has been classified as a Special Protection Area, because of its important wild fauna. The results have shown that current technologies can be used for modeling environmental parameters which improve our knowledge of the attributes, characteristics, situation, trends, and changes of natural ecosystems. The changes over time that have been observed result from the development of the vegetation or to anthropogenic and socioeconomic reasons. Rational range management will be a very comprehensive tool for farmers. This action will have a positive impact on flora in the rangelands. The core strategy is to combine forest, pasture, and livestock so that each component produces usable products.     

Levels and distribution of persistent organochlorine pesticide residues in water and sediments of Gomti River (India)—a tributary of the Ganges River

This study reports the concentration levels and distribution pattern of the persistent organochlorine pesticide (OCPs) residues in the water and bed-sediments of the Gomti River collected seasonally over a period of 2 years. The water and bed-sediment samples were collected from eight different sites and analyzed for aldrin, dieldrin, endrin, HCB, HCH isomers, DDT isomers/metabolites, endosulfan isomers (alpha and beta), endosulfan sulfate, heptachlor and its metabolites, alpha-chlordane, gamma-chlordane and methoxychlor. In the river water and sediments SigmaOCPs residues ranged between 2.16 and 567.49 ng l(-1) and 0.92 and 813.59 ng g(-1), respectively. The results, further, suggested that source of DDT contamination is from the aged and weathered agricultural soils with signature of recently used DDT in the river catchments. To assess any adverse effect of OCPs contamination on river's biological component, the threshold effect level (TEL) was used. The results revealed that bed-sediments of the Gomti River are contaminated with lindane, endrin, heptachlor epoxides and DDT, particularly at site-4 and may contribute to sediment toxicity in the freshwater ecosystem of the river.     

Influence of a collapsed coastal landfill on metal levels in sediments and biota--a portent for the future?

In May 2008 a coastal landslide deposited landfill debris onto the shore near Lyme Regis, UK. Six months later, intertidal sediments and biota from the area were sampled to determine whether the landslip had affected distribution and bioavailability of metals in the area and if there were any biological effects. Highest sediment concentrations for the majority of metals occurred near the landslip zone and in several cases exceeded Threshold Effects or Probable Effects Levels (As, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Zn). The 1 M HCl-extractable fraction of Cd, Pb and Zn in sediments also increased near the landslip. Metal bioaccumulation by intertidal biota showed variability between different species and metals, but there were several instances of increased accumulation near the landslip through increased availability from seawater, sediment and dietary sources. In most cases, metal concentrations in molluscs exceeded Oslo and Paris Commission (OSPAR) background concentrations (BCs) together with background assessment concentrations (BACs) at some sites. Kidney tissues in winkles (Littorina littorea) were measured for evidence of oxidative stress using the Total Oxyradical Scavenging Capacity (TOSC) assay. Responses to peroxynitrite, peroxyl and hydroxyl radicals suggested raised levels of TOSC in animals from the sites close to or east of the landfill waste. There have been very few studies of direct impact of landfills on the marine environment and this study could serve as a practical model for similar events driven by sea level rise.     

Modelling the Transport of Oil–Mineral-Aggregates (OMAs) in the Marine Environment and Assessment of Their Potential Risks

Spilled oil can interact with suspended particles in marine environments and form oil–mineral aggregates (OMAs). Some OMAs with densities higher than seawater density can settle to the seedbed to pose potential risks to benthic organisms. To understand the transport and fate of oil associated with OMAs and evaluate their potential risks, an integrated hydrodynamic and fate/transport model has been used in a hypothetical case study of 1,000 tonnes of South Louisiana oil spilled in the Bristol Channel. Several scenarios have been simulated under different wave and current conditions. By using OMA properties derived from laboratory measurements reported in literature, it has been found that the risk to the benthos is unlikely for the two hypothetical cases with strong currents, but it is likely for the wave only (weak current) case. The effects of other factors such as OMA properties and sediment concentration were also examined in terms of their effects on the transport process and risks.     

Building a strategy for soil protection at local and regional scale—the case of agricultural wastes landspreading

Agricultural wastes (AW) are produced in huge quantities worldwide and may cause detrimental effects on environmental quality, affecting soil, water, and air quality. Given the growing soil degradation worldwide, the need for more food of good quality and therefore the intensified agriculture, it is important to develop recycling plans even for those types of treated AW (e.g., composts) that are not considered hazardous. Two strategic approaches for safe and sustainable landspreading of organic wastes are proposed, depending on wastes properties and hazard potential, i.e., an approach appropriate for traditionally used wastes (manures and composts) and another approach for wastes that are potentially hazardous or hazardous and should only be reused under specific restrictions. Both approaches foresee concrete steps, require close cooperation between farmers and local/regional authorities, and are appropriate to ensure environmental sustainability at AW recycling or disposal areas. Desktop and web application tools are also presented that are anticipated to assist authorities in implementing their monitoring strategies.