黑龙江省“十三五”时期生态环境质量变化及趋势预测

以黑龙江省生态环境监测网监测结果为基础,总结归纳了"十三五"期间黑龙江省生态环境质量变化特征,并采用随机森林和GM(1,1)预测模型对"十四五"期间黑龙江省生态环境质量状况进行了预测。结果表明:"十三五"期间,黑龙江省环境空气、水环境和声环境质量全面好转。其中,环境空气主要污染物PM_2.5、PM₁₀、SO₂、NO₂和CO的年均质量浓度均呈现出明显下降的趋势,"哈大绥"重点区域PM₁₀、SO₂、NO₂和CO年均质量浓度呈现下降趋势。地表水水质总体呈波动变化趋势,水质状况均为轻度污染。"十四五"期间,黑龙江省生态环境质量将处于稳中向好的趋势。环境空气主要污染物及地表水主要污染指标年均质量浓度均呈现明显的下降趋势,道路交通声环境质量也将得到进一步改善。     

河南省“十三五”期间生态环境质量变化趋势

以2016-2020年河南省主要生态环境要素监测结果为研究对象,分析评价了河南省"十三五"期间生态环境质量状况、变化趋势和存在的主要问题等。结果表明:"十三五"期间,全省主要污染物排放总量大幅下降,生态环境质量稳中向好。与2016年相比,2020年全省环境空气优良天数比例上升6.2百分点;地表水环境质量逐渐由轻度污染变为良好状态,Ⅰ~Ⅲ类水质断面比例持续上升,比2016年上升22.7百分点,劣V类水质断面比例进一步下降,比2016年下降18.4百分点;降水、辐射环境质量等基本保持稳定;城市集中式饮用水源地、声环境、生态、农村环境等其他环境要素质量均有不同程度好转。但与此同时,河南省仍为全国大气污染较重的省份之一,空气质量改善幅度明显收窄;仍有部分河流污染较重或不能稳定达标,从全国范围看,Ⅰ~Ⅲ类断面比例属中下水平,水环境保护形势依然严峻。总体来看,河南省工业结构偏重、能源结构偏煤、运输结构不优等问题还未从根本上改变,区域性污染问题依然突出,生态环境质量改善还远未达到质变的效果,深入打好污染防治攻坚战仍需持续努力。     

石河子市环境空气质量变化趋势浅析

根据石河子市1982-2001年空气中SO2、NOx、TSP和降尘等大气污染物浓度的变化情况,分析其空气质量变化的原因和条件,并用Spearman秩相关系数法对其变化趋势进行了分析,得出石河子市环境空气质量有所好转,SO2、NOx、TSP、降尘浓度均有不同程度的下降。并对干旱地区的城市化建设、污染控制及改善环境质量作了有益的探讨。     

“十三五”期间宁波市生态环境质量状况及变化趋势

利用2016—2020年宁波市生态环境质量各要素监测结果,分析了“十三五”期间宁波市生态环境质量状况、变化趋势以及存在的主要问题。结果表明,“十三五”期间,宁波市生态环境质量总体向好。2020年中心城区环境空气质量优良天数比例比2016年提升了4.6个百分点;除臭氧外,各项污染物浓度均呈下降趋势;酸雨污染程度持续减轻。地表水总体水质由轻度污染转为良好,其中：2020年Ⅰ～Ⅲ类水质断面比例为86.3%,比2016年提升了37.5个百分点;劣Ⅴ类断面比例下降了3.8个百分点。集中式饮用水水源地、声环境、辐射环境等环境要素质量总体保持稳定。但环境空气质量、地表水环境质量后续改善难度较大,饮用水水源地存在较高的水华风险,生态安全屏障需要进一步巩固。     

广东省“十三五”期间生态环境质量状况及变化特征

分析了"十三五"期间广东省生态环境质量状况及变化特征,结果表明:"十三五"期间,广东省生态环境质量明显改善,2020年全省城市环境空气优良天数比例为95.5%,PM_2.5年均质量浓度为22 μg/m³,重度酸雨污染城市清零,地表水水质优良比例为86.3%,近岸海域海水水质优良面积比例为89.5%,自然生态质量总体为优。与2015年相比,2020年全省城市环境空气优良天数比例上升1.0百分点,PM_2.5年均质量浓度下降29.0%,降水pH均值上升0.36个pH单位,酸雨频率下降12.9百分点。与2016年相比,地表水水质优良比例上升6.9百分点,重度污染比例下降8.5百分点,近岸海域海水水质优良面积比例上升9.1百分点,城市声环境总体稳定,自然生态质量稳中向好。但大气O₃尚未进入下降通道,个别河段仍存在重度污染,海洋生态环境管理基础较薄弱。在协同减污降碳新形势下,推动生态环境质量持续改善仍面临较大挑战。     

北京市河流氨氮浓度时空演变特征分析

选取2010—2017年北京市地表水监测数据,对河流氨氮(NH 3-N)浓度的时空演变特征进行分析。结果显示,空间上,全市河流NH 3-N浓度整体上保持上游优于下游的分布特征;年均浓度显著下降,由2010年的8.53 mg/L逐年下降至2017年的3.09 mg/L;河流NH 3-N浓度与化学需氧量、总磷呈显著正相关,与溶解氧显著负相关,总氮与NH 3-N的比值随着水质由差到好呈上升状态。污水收集处理和再生水利用是改善北京市河流水质的关键措施。为持续降低河流NH 3-N浓度,改善首都水环境质量,须提高污水处理能力和出水水质,有机结合再生水回用与生态治水理念。     

内蒙古自治区“十三五”期间生态环境质量

为了解内蒙古自治区"十三五"期间的生态环境质量状况,以自治区生态环境监测网数据为依据,较全面地研究了"十三五"期间内蒙古生态环境质量变化特征及社会经济与环境质量的关联性,总结归纳了尚存的环境问题。结果表明:"十三五"期间,内蒙古生态环境质量全面好转,环境空气质量明显改善,地表水水质由中度污染转为轻度污染,沙尘天气减少,声环境质量总体改善,主要污染物排放量下降,未出现酸雨现象。但与此同时,仍存在不少环境问题,后续改善难度加大,区域大气污染治理成效还需进一步稳固,部分地表水存在污染较重的状况,生态环境仍较敏感。经济发展与环境质量相关指标基本呈负相关关系。总体来看,内蒙古自治区"十三五"期间生态环境质量全面改善,但当前生态环境质量与2035年远景目标还有较大差距。     

基于灰色关联和系统聚类的大连市环境质量影响因素分析

采用灰色关联度和系统聚类分析方法,定量分析大连市社会、经济、自然、人口、能源资源和污染排放等有代表性的指标与生态环境质量的关联程度。结果表明,大连市社会经济发展与环境质量关联度为中等,经济指标与环境质量指标关联度较强,社会、人口、污染排放指标关联度中等,能源和自然指标关联度较弱。金普新区、甘井子区和长兴岛是潜在环境风险区域,需要重点关注环境质量变化趋势。普兰店区、瓦房店市和庄河市虽然属于低排放区域,但环境质量风险相对较大,应进一步加强环境风险管控。     

基于区域环境空气质量和碳排放数据的减污降碳协同效果评估

化石燃料燃烧产生的温室气体与大气污染物具有同根同源性,但具体治理中减污降碳的协同效果尚不明确。以浙江省11个设区市为研究样本,对环境空气质量和二氧化碳(CO₂)排放数据进行分析研究,结果显示：2016—2020年浙江省环境空气质量持续改善,但CO₂排放总量仍处于增长阶段。11个设区城市PM_2.5年均浓度降幅在26%～41%之间,二氧化氮(NO₂)年均浓度下降趋势不明显,大部分城市呈现碳排放增加、NO₂浓度下降的特征,只有杭州和温州两市呈现碳排放总量和NO₂、PM_2.5浓度协同下降的趋势。因子相关性分析结果表明,各设区市呈现NO₂浓度与碳排放相关性较大、协同性强,PM_2.5浓度与碳排放相关性较小的特点。进一步通过减污降碳协同定量评价分析表明,浙江地区在环境空气质量改善和温室气体减排已表现出一定成效,但各设区市因产业结构、环境基础条件、协同程度等不同导致减污降碳综合绩效有明显差异。从源头减排实现...     

环境空气质量综合指数计算方法比选研究

环境空气质量综合指数是进行逐月城市环境空气质量比较和排序的重要方法,提出了4种涵盖SO2、NO2、PM10、PM2.5、CO、O3等6项污染物的综合指数计算方法,基于2013年74个城市逐月污染物浓度数据使用主成分分析方法进行了对比分析。结果表明,综合指数计算方法中污染物统计指标和标准化方法不同对于主要污染物的判定有重要影响,各种计算方法中PM2.5、PM10、O3是出现频率最多的主要污染物;除O3外其他5项污染物逐月统计指标间均有极显著的正相关性,冬季O3统计指标与SO2、NO2、PM10、PM2.5呈显著负相关,夏季则呈显著正相关;主成分分析结果表明,在去除冗余信息后,PM2.5、PM10的权重被相对削弱,SO2、NO2、CO的权重得到相对强化,O3的权重夏季得到强化、冬季被削弱;综合考虑不同方案下主要污染物频率分布情况和PM2.5、PM10、O3权重变化特征,建议计算逐月环境空气质量综合指数时,SO2、NO2、PM10、PM2.5宜以月均值除以年均值标准进行标准化,CO、O3宜以特定百分位数浓度除以日均值标准(或8 h均值标准)进行标准化;该方法可延伸到季、半年和年度的环境空气质量综合指数计算。     

基于因子 聚类分析的地下水中阳离子来源研究

于2020—2021年对某市20个监测井80份地下水样本进行了调查。采用因子分析和聚类分析法以地下水中阳离子浓度为研究对象进行溯源分析。结果表明,地下水中阳离子浓度会受到不同程度、不同类别的人类活动影响,其阳离子的来源呈现多样化的特点,其中铅、铜、铝、锰为农业面源来源,铵、钠、总硬度是工业来源,另外,砷、铁及锌等为自然来源,而在自然来源中出现的砷、铁阳离子的富集现象,很明显是受到了城镇化及工业化的影响。锌与氢离子可能是地下水中pH值受到人类活动的影响,或者是地表水的侧向补给带来的影响。     

Relationships of Human Disturbance, Bird Communities, and Plant Communities Along the Land-Water Interface of a Large Reservoir

We examined the relationships of humanactivity, bird communities, and plant communities along theland-water interface of Lake Texoma, a large human-madereservoir on the Texas-Oklahoma border. Measurements ofhuman activity, plant surveys, and bird surveys wereperformed at 40 paired transects, one with humandisturbance, the other undisturbed. Both principalcomponents and correspondence analyses of bird-survey dataseparated disturbed sites from paired undisturbed sites, andtypical disturbance-tolerant species from those lesstolerant of human activity. Compared to undisturbed sites,disturbed sites tended to have more individual birds persurvey, pavement, and mowed lawns, and less canopy,vegetation volume, and vegetation vertical diversity. Aprincipal components analysis of quantitative disturbancemeasurements revealed that most bird and plant measures werehighly correlated with the first disturbance component. However, the correlation between birds and human activitywas much stronger than that between birds and plants, orbetween plants and disturbance. Our data suggest that bird-species composition is regulated more by human activity thanby plant-community composition. Also, in this system, birdcommunities are a better choice than plant communities toindex the effect of human disturbance. To maintain regionaldiversity of both birds and plants, undisturbed areas shouldbe maintained around reservoirs.     

大连市夏季近地面臭氧污染数值模拟和控制对策研究

通过区域空气质量模型CAMx对大连市2015年8月近地面臭氧(O_3)污染进行模拟,探讨了O_3及其生成前体物(NOx和VOCs)的来源,O_3生成控制区,并根据敏感性分析结果对前体物排放的控制效果进行了定量评估。结果表明:本地NOx排放对大连地区的NOx浓度贡献占90%以上,本地VOCs排放对大连地区的VOCs浓度贡献占80%以上,而本地NOx和VOCs排放对大连地区O_3浓度贡献仅占29%;大连市整体上为VOCs控制区,控制VOCs能有效降低O_3污染,还能有效削减O_3的峰值浓度;通过敏感性分析结果计算得出,削减大连本地工业源VOCs和民用源VOCs能够有效降低大连地区O_3浓度,削减10%的工业源VOCs能使市区O_3平均浓度降低2%左右,削减10%的民用源VOCs能使大连市区平均O_3浓度降低1%左右。建议NOx与VOCs削减比例为1∶2,对大连市O_3和PM2.5污染进行协同控制。     

Macroinvertebrate Assemblages on Woody Debris and Their Relations with Environmental Variables in the Lower Sacramento and San Joaquin River Drainages, California

Data from 25 sites were used to evaluate associations between macroinvertebrate assemblages on large woody debris (snags) and environmental variables in the lower San Joaquin and Sacramento River drainages in California as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment Program. Samples were collected from 1993 to 1995 in the San Joaquin River drainage and in 1996 and 1997 in the Sacramento River drainage. Macroinvertebrate taxa were aggregated to the family (or higher) level of taxonomic organization, resulting in 39 taxa for analyses. Only the 31 most common taxa were used for two-way indicator species analysis (TWINSPAN) and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). TWINSPAN analysis defined four groups of snag samples on the basis of macroinvertebrate assemblages. Analysis of variance identified differences in environmental and biotic characteristics among the groups. These results combined with the results of CCA indicated that mean dominant substrate type, gradient, specific conductance, water temperature, percentage of the basin in agricultural land use, percentage of the basin in combined agricultural and urban land uses, and elevation were important factors in explaining assemblage structure. Macroinvertebrate assemblages on snags may be useful in family level bioassessments of environmental conditions in valley floor habitats.     

库尔勒市PM_(10)与气象条件的关系

利用库尔勒市2006—2013年的PM10监测数据以及同期常规气象资料,使用非参数分析(spearman秩相关系数)方法分析了常规气象要素与PM10浓度的相关关系。结果表明PM10浓度与各气象要素关系密切:气压较高时,PM10浓度易超过《环境空气质量标准》(GB 3095-2012)二级标准;当气温≥20℃时,温度越高PM10浓度超标天数越少,当气温20℃时,较高的气温则不利于PM10的稀释扩散;温度露点差越小,PM10的超标率越大;PM10浓度随风速的增大先降低后增加;降水对PM10有清除作用。     

Interpretation and Discrimination of Marshy Wetlands by Soil Factors in the Kuan-Tu Natural Park, Taiwan

This work investigated soil samples collected from Kuan–Tu wetlands, Taiwan. Factor analysis was performed to explain the impact of various soil factors on this marshy wetlands located in suburban Taipei. The results indicated that the latent factors were heavy metals, salinity, and soil organic matter. Canonical discriminant analysis was used to improve an existing vegetation classi–fication scheme by identifying the physical-chemical properties of sediment in Kaun–Tu wetlands, Taiwan. Predictive discriminant analysis was used to examine the ability of the models to predict class membership for unknown soil sample. Multivariate analysis of the spatial patterns of soil quality and vegetation types showed that different properties of soil grew different types of vegetation and absorbed contaminants differently. We can feasibly conserve a suitable habitat for wetland biology by processing these unstable predictor variables. The methodology and results provide useful information concerning the Kuan–Tu wetlands and may be applicable to other wetlands with similar properties that are experiencing similar environmental issues.     

洪湖水质空间特异性及主导因子分析

运用聚类分析和主成分分析方法对洪湖湿地12个采样点的理化特性进行分析。聚类分析表明,根据各采样点水质组分的相似性将洪湖大致分为3个空间区域,各空间区域正好分属于核心区、实验区、河口区,各区域间特征差异显著。对各区域水质的主成分分析表明,洪湖不同空间区域水质信息差异很大。第1组核心区主要体现富营养化信息;第2组实验区主要体现总氮、氧化还原电位、浊度信息;第3组河口区主要体现溶解氧及亚硝酸盐氮等污染物信息。揭示了洪湖水质现状及其成因,为洪湖水资源合理利用及生态保护提供基础数据。同时,运用地统计学方法为生态环境研究提供新的思路与方法。     

Earth system analysis and management

A research strategy based upon models of intermediate complexity addressing crucial aspects of global environmental change is presented. The key idea behind that strategy is to compress system complexity either by formal techniques such that first-order aspects are preserved, or to employ semi-qualitative schemes to describe and simulate the dominant dynamical patterns identified by panoramic inspection.Specific realizations of the overall heuristic philosophy are introduced as elements of a comprehensive research program on global change. Topics encompass global climate modeling, a decision analysis framework for managing the global warming problem by balancing adaptation and mitigation efforts, a generic approach to integrated regional climate impact assessment and its implementation in specific regions, as well as a new technique to link regional and global patterns of environmental change by using advanced modeling tools.     

Statistical analyses of coastal water quality for a port and harbour region in India

A long-term study of temperature, pH, turbidity, suspended solid, salinity, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen has been performed in a port and harbour region in India for four years from December 1996 to November 2000. Marine water quality results showed no regular trend. The mean monthly values of temperature, pH, turbidity, suspended solid, salinity, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen were in the range of 22.64 ± 0.4 to 29.05 ± 1.37 °C; 7.65 ± 0.04 to 7.81 ± 0.13; 28.8 ± 14.7 to 64.2 ± 32.0 NTU; 283.5 ± 81.8 to 356.0 ± 159.7 mg/L; 29.78 ± 7.18 to 29.78 ± 1.04 ppt; 4.67 ± 0.50 to 6.01 ± 1.02 mg/L; 5.41 ± 1.92 to 7.56 ± 2.1 mg/L; and 0.25 ± 0.07 to 0.63 ± 0.49 mg/L, respectively. The results of correlation analysis showed that biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) was inversely correlated dissolved oxygen (DO) and poorly correlated with all other parameters. Turbidity and suspended solid were moderately correlated with each other while salinity was moderately correlated with other water quality parameters. In factor analysis, four factors were drawn out of the eight variables, which represented 74% of the variance of the original data. Factor I was related to suspended solid and turbidity. Factor II represented mainly temperature and DO showing inverse relation between these two. Factor III implied the degree of pollution at any monitoring station. Factor IV included pH and salinity. It could be concluded that the factor model represented almost all the variables.     

Water Quality during Development and Apportionment of Pollution from Rivers in Tapeng Lagoon, Taiwan

This work investigated water samples collected from Tapeng Lagoon, Taiwan. Factor analysis was conducted to explain the characteristics and the variation in the quality of water during the disassembly of oyster frames and fishery boxes. The result shows that the most important latent factors in Tapeng Lagoon are the ocean factor, primary productivity factor, and the fishery pollution factor. Canonical discriminant analysis is applied to identify the source of pollution in neighboring rivers outside Tapeng Lagoon. The two constructed discriminant functions (CDFs) showed markedly contribution to all discriminant variables, and that total nitrogen, algae, dissolved oxygen and total phosphate, combined in the nutrient effect factor. The recognition capacities in these two CDFs were 95.6%, 4.4%, respectively. The water quality in the Kaoping river most strongly determined that in the Tapeng Lagoon the best is. And disassembling the oyster frames and fishery boxes improves the water quality markedly. However, environmental topographic conditions indicate that strengthening stream pollution prevention and to constructing another entrance to the ocean are the best approaches for improving the quality of water in Tapeng Lagoon, especially by reducing eutrophication. These approaches and results yield useful information concerning habitat recovery and water resource management.