Filament-Based Atmospheric Dispersion Model to Achieve Short Time-Scale Structure of Odor Plumes

This article presents the theoretical motivation, implementation approach, and example validation results for a computationally efficient plume simulation model, designed to replicate both the short-term time signature and long-term exposure statistics of a chemical plume evolving in a turbulent flow. Within the resulting plume, the odor concentration is intermittent with rapidly changing spatial gradient. The model includes a wind field defined over the region of interest that is continuous, but which varies with location and time in both magnitude and direction. The plume shape takes a time varying sinuous form that is determined by the integrated effect of the wind field. Simulated and field data are compared. The motivation for the development of such a simulation model was the desire to evaluate various strategies for tracing odor plumes to their source, under identical conditions. The performance of such strategies depends in part on the instantaneous response of target receptors; therefore, the sequence of events is of considerable consequence and individual exemplar plume realizations are required. Due to the high number of required simulations, computational efficiency was critically important.     

Modelling Ecological Presence–absence Data along an Environmental Gradient: Threshold Levels of the Environment

A methodology for estimating environmental thresholds of binary presence–absence data is presented where the level of the threshold is parameterised. Presence–absence data is fitted to three complementary different models: an independent null-model, a monotonically increasing or decreasing model, and an optimum model. The range of the three models is strictly between zero and one and the models are therefore well suited for modelling presence probabilities. The results of the three models may be combined by using Bayesian model selection methodologies. The proposed methodology is exemplified on observed binary presence–absence data of Bauera rubioides along an elevation gradient. Received: May 2005 / Revised: July 2005 An erratum to this article is available at.     

Modelling spatial zero-inflated continuous data with an exponentially compound Poisson process

A parsimonious model is presented as an alternative to delta approaches to modelling zero-inflated continuous data. The data model relies on an exponentially compound Poisson process, also called the law of leaks (LOL). It represents the process of sampling resources that are spatially distributed as Poisson distributed patches, each containing a certain quantity of biomass drawn from an exponential distribution. In an application of the LOL, two latent structures are proposed to account for spatial dependencies between zero values at different scales within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. The LOL is compared to the delta-gamma (ΔΓ) distribution using bottom-trawl survey data. Results of this case study emphasize that the LOL provides slightly better fits to learning samples with a very high proportion of zero values and small strictly positive abundance data. Additionally, it offers better predictions of validation samples.     

Nash Implementation of a Proportional Solution to International Pollution Control Problems

For a very general class of pollution control models involving strictly quasi-concave utility functions over consumption and environmental quality and strictly convex emission abatement cost functions, a proportional cost sharing mechanism is presented inspired by the ratio equilibrium introduced by7. It is shown that the proportional solution yields a cost efficient allocation of abatement efforts and that the resulting utility imputation always lies in the stand alone core of the cost sharing game. In order to decentralize the proportional cost sharing equilibrium, a financial compensation mechanism implementing the proportional solution in complete information Nash equilibrium is presented.     

Quantitative Pollution Spill Risk Assessment: Using A Gis-Based System

Federal and State agencies have recently advocated risk-based analysis as a mechanism for advancing regulatory reform and safety determination in marine systems. the present investigation promotes this objective through the development of risk-based environmental planning strategies for oil spill contingency plans. This alternative approach to contingency planning departs from conventional methodology by employing quantitative risk assessment methods to identify hazardous oil spill zones and sensitive environmental areas, R_o and R_e respectively. the product of this conversion is referenced on a single “Risk” layer within a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework allowing coastal managers to evaluate natural resource data with associated elements of oil spill risk. As a new tool for coastal pollution management, risk-based environmental planning strategies have shown potential for evolving more efficient oil spill contingency plans.     

天津市环境空气中氮氧化物污染及防治策略

对天津市2004-2008年环境空气中的NO2污染状况及变化趋势进行了系统分析,中心城区污染呈总体下降趋势,但仍是污染较重区域,滨海新区污染呈明显加重趋势。对主要污染源的排放分析表明,工业污染和汽车尾气污染为影响空气质量的主要因素,排放量分别占53.1%-67.6%和28.7%-44.0%。认为加大工业污染源NOX减排力度、实施严格的机动车排放标准和改善能源结构是控制NOX污染的重要措施。     

Quantitative Pollution Spill Risk Assessment: Using A Gis-Based System

Federal and State agencies have recently advocated risk-based analysis as a mechanism for advancing regulatory reform and safety determination in marine systems. the present investigation promotes this objective through the development of risk-based environmental planning strategies for oil spill contingency plans. This alternative approach to contingency planning departs from conventional methodology by employing quantitative risk assessment methods to identify hazardous oil spill zones and sensitive environmental areas, R_o and R_e respectively. the product of this conversion is referenced on a single “Risk” layer within a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework allowing coastal managers to evaluate natural resource data with associated elements of oil spill risk. As a new tool for coastal pollution management, risk-based environmental planning strategies have shown potential for evolving more efficient oil spill contingency plans.     

The economics of sequential choice applied to quasi-option value

This paper develops a general model that can be used to determine the value of sequential forecasts. The model is used (1) to examine the interacting effects of strategies for coping with environmental uncertainty, and (2) to explore the relationship between the theories of sequential choice and quasi-option value. The framework presented bridges these two schools of thought and provides a tool for evaluating one time (e.g., climate change) or repetitive (e.g., pollution) forecasts of environmental damage.     

Adaptive strategies of territory formation

How do territorial animals gain ownership of an area? Early modelling has considered the evolution of fighting when the winner can claim the right to the resource. Recently, alternative hypotheses have been offered where repeated interactions lead to division of space through 'nagging' instead of one decisive fight. However, these models assume that animals avoid areas in which they have taken part in aggressive interactions, but do not consider whether avoidance itself is adaptive. We aim to bridge this gap between mechanistic and adaptive explanations, by presenting a game-theory model where individuals choose whether to return to an area after a fight with a specific outcome (win, loss, draw). We show that avoidance of areas where fights have occurred can be adaptive, but only if benefits of access to the area are low compared to costs of fighting. Otherwise, one individual (typically the winner) responds by returning to the area, and the other (loser) avoids it. In such cases, space is gained by winning fights. We also consider the role of conventions. If responses to fights were purely conventional, paradoxical strategies where losers of fights gain ownership would be equally logical as common-sense ones where winners claim ownership. Paradoxical solutions can be stable but only when there is little difference in fighting ability between the competitors, when individuals adhere very strictly to a behavioural rule without much random variation, and when the population in its ancient state used a paradoxical strategy.     

Extraction capacity and the optimal order of extraction

The least-cost-first extraction rule for deposits with different extraction costs previously has been shown to be invalid in general equilibrium. This paper demonstrates that this rule also does not hold in partial equilibrium when extraction capacity is limited. Necessary and sufficient conditions for several surprising extraction orders are presented. If extraction from a high-cost resource is constrained, it may be optimal to begin extraction from a high-cost deposit (or backstop) strictly before extracting from a lower-cost deposit. If extraction from a low-cost resource is limited, it may be optimal to exhaust a high-cost deposit strictly before the low-cost deposit is exhausted or to abandon extraction temporarily from a high-cost deposit and then to exhaust it later. The analysis demonstrates how extraction constraints affect the order of extraction and shows that certain cost reversals are caused by limited extraction capacity rather than by the general equilibrium definition of extraction costs.     

Balancing fuelwood and biodiversity concerns in rural Nepal

An agent-based model is developed to explore the pattern of fuelwood collection in an 1178 ha forest area in rural mountainous Nepal. The model relates fuelwood collection intensity and amount of dead wood available for collection to the diversity of polypore species, a group of strictly dead wood dependent fungi which can be used as indicators of the biodiversity associated with dead wood. By analysing scenarios of increased collection the model shows that the relative impact on polypore diversity is rising more rapidly than the time used for collection. This indicates that better market access in the future could potentially imply a major threat to biodiversity associated with dead wood.     

Mate-guarding constrains feeding activity but not energetic status of wild male long-tailed macaques (Macaca fascicularis)

Mate-guarding is an important determinant of male reproductive success in a number of species. Little is known however about the constraints of this behaviour, e.g. the associated energetic costs. We investigated these costs in long-tailed macaques where alpha males mate guard females to a lesser extent than predicted by the priority of access model. The study was carried out during two mating periods on three wild groups living in the Gunung Leuser National Park, Indonesia. We combined behavioural observations on males’ locomotion and feeding activity, GPS records of distance travelled and non-invasive measurements of urinary C-peptide (UCP), a physiological indicator of male energetic status. Mate-guarding led to a decrease in feeding time and fruit consumption suggesting a reduced intake of energy. At the same time, vertical locomotion was reduced, which potentially saved energy. These findings, together with the fact that we did not find an effect of mate-guarding on UCP levels, suggest that energy intake and expenditure was balanced during mate-guarding in our study males. Mate-guarding thus seems to not be energetically costly under all circumstances. Given that in strictly seasonal rhesus macaques, high-ranking males lose physical condition over the mating period, we hypothesise that the energetic costs of mate-guarding vary inter-specifically depending on the degree of seasonality and that males of non-strictly seasonal species might be better adapted to maintain balanced energetic condition year-round. Finally, our results illustrate the importance of combining behavioural assessments of both energy intake and expenditure with physiological measures when investigating energetic costs of behavioural strategies.     

Modelling trade-offs between livestock grazing and wader conservation in a grassland agroecosystem

The objective of this study was to model the trade-offs between ecological and productive performance of a grassland agroecosystem. We developed a dynamic model linking grass dynamics controlled by livestock grazing to stochastic population dynamics of two wader bird species with high conservation value. Bird dynamics were driven by both direct and indirect effects of grazing. Viable control framework was used to predict grazing strategies ensuring production and conservation and to generate the whole trade-off curve between ecological and productive performance. Bird population size was used as an indicator of ecological performance and the total number of grazing days defined productive performance. Model results show that conciliating ecological and productive performance implies a temporal shift in grazing sequences. The best ecological performance was obtained at intermediate levels of productive performance. Without grazing or with too low a grazing intensity, it was not possible to maintain any of the bird populations due to the indirect effects of grazing on habitat quality. However, too high a level of grazing implied fast population decline for both populations due to direct negative effects of grazing on nest survival. Field data on current grazing regimes and grass height showed a low proportion of suitable fields in our case study area. This result indicates an antagonism between direct and indirect effects of grazing on wader birds, implying the need of very specific management of grassland. Our results illustrate the fact that European grasslands are anthropic habitats which are highly dependent on human activity. In such habitats, trade-off curves are not expected to be strictly decreasing or increasing.     

Ungulate population dynamics and optimization models

Optimal harvesting strategies for an ungulate population are estimated using stochastic dynamic programming. Data on the Llano Basin white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) population were used to construct a 2-variable population dynamics model. The model provided the basis for estimating optimal harvesting strategies as a feedback function of the current values of the state variables (prefawning older deer and juveniles). Optimal harvest strategies were insensitive to assumptions about the probability distributions of the stochastic variable (rainfall). The response of the population components to harvesting and the returns obtained from applying optimal strategies were explored through simulation. Mean annual harvest is about 15% of the population. Simplified harvesting strategies based on age-ratios as well as a simplified version based on optimal strategies—but assuming persisting equilibrium juvenile deer density—were compared to optimal strategies through examining values of information. Simplified harvesting strategies lead to a lower harvest over a 50-year simulation period.     

Uncertainty and measurement error in welfare models for risk changes

Most welfare models of environmental or mortality risk reductions assume that risks are exogenously determined and known with certainty. However, a growing body of research suggests that uncertainty about risks can affect choices over risky prospects. I present a decision-weighted random-utility model that decomposes welfare losses into those attributable to an increase in the deterministic component of risk and those attributable to uncertainty about risk. I apply the model to an illustrative dataset of subjects' perceived mortality risk and willingness to accept the risk of nuclear-waste transport. I estimate the model using Lewbel's (2000) strictly exogenous regressor approach to account for endogeneity bias and measurement error. Subjects display aversion to both risk and uncertainty about the risk of a transport accident, so that increases in either leads to social-welfare losses. Roughly 12% of the external cost of nuclear-waste transport is attributable to the public's uncertainty about transport risk.     

On modelling temporal patterns in stressed ecosystems — Recreation in a coniferous forest

A system of ordinary differential equations is presented as being appropriate for modelling the impact of stress on the temporal behaviour of certain components within an ecosystem. The modelling problem is fist discussed in general terms and then in terms specifically relating to the impact of recreational activities (hunting, fishing, sightseeing, etc.) on a coniferous forest ecosystem.Using crude data, the model is used to simulate over a 3-year period the biomass levels of four compartments of the ecosystem (viz, timber, deer, fish and forage) in the absence of recreational activities. These results are then contrasted with simulation results obtained by introducing a “moderate” and then “high” degree of recreational activity, as well as the response of the system under moderate recreation to management strategies involving the construction of dams and the harvesting of timber.     

Mathematical modelling of the Ibera Caiman yacaré

A non-linear age structured model is presented for the Ibera Caiman yacaré population. We consider the placement of the nests (related to the temperature in the nest) as the determining factor for the sex of the hatchlings. The dynamical behavior and the effects of management strategies as harvest and eggs collection are studied through numerical simulation.     

Sampling for weed spatial distribution mapping need not be adaptive

Weeds are species of interest for ecologists because they are competitors of the crop for resources but they also play an important role in maintaining biodiversity in agroecosystems. To study their spatial distribution at the field scale, only sampled observations are available due to the cost of sampling. Weeds sampling strategies are static. However, in the domain of spatial sampling, adaptive strategies have also been developed with, for some of them, an important on-line or off-line computational cost. In this article we provide answers to the following question: Are the current adaptive sampling methods efficient enough to motivate a wider use in practice when sampling a weed species at a field scale? We provide a comparison of the behaviour of 8 static strategies and 3 adaptive ones on four criteria: density class estimation, map restoration, spatial aggregation estimation, and sampling duration. From two weeds data sets, we estimated six contrasted Markov Random Field (MRF) models of weed density class spatial distribution and a model for sampling duration. The MRF models were then used to compare the strategies on a large set of simulated maps. Our main finding was that there is no clear gain in using adaptive sampling strategies rather than static ones for the three first criteria, and adaptive strategies were associated to longer sampling duration. This conclusion points out that for weed mapping, it is more important to build a good model of spatial distribution, than to propose complex adaptive sampling strategies.     

Constructing change: The evolution of land and resource management in Alberta,Canada

Recognizing the limitations common to both centralized and privatized management regimes, institutionalized resource management is beginning to incorporate the knowledge and skills of local resource users, coupled with the enabling policies and legislation of state systems, to arrive at cooperative approaches to resource management. These varying and dynamic approaches to resource management have been compelled largely through the recognition of the limited capabilities of existing management systems to adapt effectively to ecosystem change and the evolving needs of resource users. These cooperative approaches to management should not, however, be considered an institutional end-point, but rather a phase in the perpetual transition of a social system; each unique in character and individually variable depending on the resource being managed, the political climate in which management occurs, as well as the differing strategies employed by resource users to enact institutional change. Drawing from the experiences of the Whitefish Lake First Nation of Alberta, Canada, this paper presents a brief overview of the evolution of resource management theory, grounded in the real-world formation of the Whitefish Lake First Nation — Province of Alberta Cooperative Management Agreement.