Is the convenience yield a good indicator of a commodity's supply risk?

A strong increase in the demand for some commodities over the last decade will have a major impact on their future supply situation. Of increasing importance, therefore, is an assessment of a commodity's criticality, and especially its supply risk, by appropriate indicators. The literature has proposed numerous indicators of the supply risk. Here, we use the convenience yield of commodity futures as a supply risk indicator to address some of the major shortcomings of existing indicators, especially regarding their predictive power. This paper aims to test the applicability of the convenience yield as an indicator of a commodity's future supply risk. Therefore, we calculate historical convenience yields for 3-, 15-, and 27-month futures contracts for five major industrial metals (aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc) during the period 1999 to 2011. We compare the convenience yields at the beginning of the contract period to known indicators at maturity to find that the convenience yield has generally predictive power for the static stock lifetime (i.e., inventory volume/turnover) and future spot prices. Furthermore, we find that, with some restrictions, the convenience yield is an applicable indicator of a commodity's supply risk.     

What determines the breadth and depth of Zambia's backward linkages to copper mining? The role of public policy and value chain dynamics

This paper investigates the dynamics of upstream linkages development to copper mining in Zambia. The breadth and depth of the local mining supply chain was deeply shaped by policies adopted in the 1990s under the Structural Adjustment Programme. These policies succeeded in attracting much-needed FDI in the mining sector, including Chinese and Indian FDI, but had a negative impact on the level of value-addition undertaken by local suppliers. In the post-privatisation era, the dynamics of the local supply chain suggest that supply firms' upgrading and sales growth were determined by firm ownership and value chain governance. In fact, forward linkages to buyers other than Chinese and Indian mining companies, and backward linkages to parent companies and technology providers were critical in supporting supply firms' success in the mining value chain.     

Copper Overcapacity and the Adjustment Process

This article analyses overcapacity in the world copper industry during the 1980s and reviews projections of mine capacity to 1990 and 1996 by the research staffs of the World Bank, the International Wrought Copper Council, and the Intergovernmental Council of Copper Exporting Countries. The process of restoring demand-supply balance in the copper industry is analysed under alternative assumptions for rates of growth in world consumption and certain conclusions are reached on the implications for copper prices during the 1990s.     

International commodity transactions : The role of the commodity futures trading commission

The creation of so-called ‘financial’ futures contracts in the USA has spurred the growth of futures trading by other countries, including the UK. The increased expansion of commodity futures trading has also led to heightened regulatory concerns throughout the world. The USA has been especially aggressive in asserting jurisdiction and establishing regulatory controls over persons dealing in the US markets. The complexity of the regulations adopted is compounded by the fact that they are often directed at specific instruments, while similar instruments are not given comparable regulatory treatment. This article discusses the growth of futures trading worldwide, as well as regulatory concerns and requirements existing in the USA.     

基于GIS的县域经济差异与协调发展研究——以陕北地区为例

改革开放以来,陕北地区经济有了突飞猛进的发展,尤其是矿产资源的开发创造了巨大的经济效益。但近几年来,县域经济发展水平的空间差异逐渐扩大,已成为制约该区域经济发展的一大障碍。选取了人均GDP、地均GDP、人均地方财政收入、人均社会消费品零售总额、城镇化水平、在岗职工平均工资和农民人均纯收入7项指标,采用ArcGIS的IDW法模拟和分析了陕北地区经济空间格局,再采用量图分析法将陕北地区25个县级行政区分为先进、中等和落后3种类型,从县域的角度进一步分析经济水平的空间差异,最后对缩小县域经济空间差异和实现县域经济协调发展提出几点建议。     

Development of Australia's North-West shelf gas reserves

The development of Australia's North-West Shelf gasfield is the largest single private venture yet undertaken in Australia, with expenditure of around A$3000 million. Gas will be exported (primarily to Japan), and there will be local sales, at present confined to the state of Western Australia. Annual revenue is estimated to be A$743 million (in 1977 prices) over the life of the project, with annual tax and royalties rising to A$330 million once loans are repaid. The net effect on Australia's balance of payments is positive in most years. The project's apparent feasibility has provided an impetus to further offshore exploration in the West, with A$400 million now committed.     

Derivative mine valuation: strategic investment decisions in competitive markets

Successful management in competitive markets requires evaluation methods that respond to global market dynamics and provide investors with relevant information to make strategic investment decisions. These strategic decisions include decisions on investment timing, feasibility study and risk management and mine operating options. Conventional methods do not have the built-in capabilities to help investors handle these strategic issues. Advances in modern finance have had profound impacts on financial markets for options, futures and collaterized securities and offer appropriate tools in solving these problems. In this paper, the authors have extended the Brennan and Schwartz mineral resource model to develop the derivative mine valuation method based on the dynamic arbitrage theory. A copper mining venture has been evaluated using the derivative mine valuation and conventional methods. The results show that the derivative mine valuation method allows investors to maximize the venture's market value by exercising these strategic options.     

The significance of futures trading in minerals and oil

Futures trading has been introduced for aluminium and oil in recent years and the range of contracts available on various minerals and oil products continues to widen. Concern has been expressed by producers of a number of minerals, including nickel and platinum, that the introduction of futures trading may introduce a speculative element to price determination that will create inappropriate or excessively volatile prices. It is the purpose of this article to analyse the role of futures trading in relation to trade in underlying commodities in general and especially for trade in minerals and oil. Evidence from oil and platinum markets, in particular, is adduced and examined in the light of earlier evidence of the influence of futures trading on underlying commodities. The contribution of futures trading is examined in detail and conclusions are reached on the significance of futures trading for minerals and oil.     

高尔夫俱乐部零售营销模式研究

虽然高尔夫运动在我国起步较晚，但是近几年发展迅猛。就高尔夫在我国的营销模式进行了分析，总结了传统的营销模式，分析了当前我国高尔夫俱乐部营销存在的三大误区，即注重硬件设施忽视企业文化，注重单一产品忽视资源整合，注重销售工作忽视市场推广；提出了零售营销模式，以期为高尔夫俱乐部发展提供可行性建议。     

The regional economic impact of reducing greenhouse gas emissions: Western Australia

This study analyses the general-equilibrium impacts of an international climate change response policy on the economy of Western Australia (WA), one of the most mining-based and energy-intensive states of Australia. It finds that emissions would fall by up to 11% from the base level in WA. However, such environmental benefits emanate at some costs to the state economy; in terms of foregone gross state product, the costs are up to 3% of the base level. Indeed, the actual costs and benefits depend on the precise design of the climate change response policy as well as on the other policies within which it operates. For example, when emission quota permits are sold to industries and no tradeable carbon credits (i.e. credits for the carbon sequestrated in Kyoto forests) are granted, emissions decline by about 8% and GSP falls by about 3% of the base levels. If carbon credits are tradeable, however, the environmental benefits could be increased and the GSP cost could be reduced substantially. Also, the reduced economic activity caused by emission abatement results in a modest fall in net government revenue, despite the additional revenue from permit sales in some cases. Accordingly, government’s fiscal package surrounding the emission permits would influence the emission abatement impacts on the economy. With regard to the effects on the structure of the state economy, the oil and gas industry suffers only a slight contraction but the energy-supplying sector as a whole contracts substantially. It is therefore not surprising that the impacts on the WA economy of curbing emissions by energy and transport industries alone are quite significant when compared to those resulted from all industries’ compliance with the abatement scheme. It needs to be noted that the model projections analysed in the paper are based on simplifying assumptions and tentative scenarios, and hence should be viewed with caution and not be understood as unconditional forecasts.     

环保设备买卖合同的法律风险防范——以卖方为视角

结合有关案例,探讨了作为卖方的环保企业在签订环保设备买卖合同时,涉及协商谈判、内容签订、合同履行等应注意的法律风险问题,以及防范和应对风险的措施。     

Copper Investment Policy in Chile 1973–1984

The present Government of Chile has retained under state ownership the large-scale copper mines nationalized by the Allende Government in 1971. At the same time it has pledged itself to open fully the Chilean economy to the free play of national and international market forces and to this end has elected to expand Chilean copper production by using foreign capital. The financial regimes created by the Government to attract such investment are described. Although the investment terms have been generous, the Government has not been as successful in attracting as much foreign investment as it had hoped. It is suggested that the Government could expand copper production more efficiently and at less cost to the nation by investing in the state-owned copper industry.     

Viability of processing in copper-mining areas : An economic analysis

Although copper is exported mainly in the form of semi-refined or refined copper, exports of copper in the form of ores and concentrates increased their share of world copper exports in the 1970s. These exports mainly originate from copper-mining areas with limited access to the inputs required for stages subsequent to mining. This article surveys the options open to copper-producing countries to increase their revenue from copper, and concludes that changes in the composition of exports to favour the export of more processed forms of copper would require substantial changes in the economic structure of a country. Trade barriers are not felt to constitute a substantial obstacle to world trade in refined or semi-fabricated copper.     

Government fiscal strategy for mining to 2000

World Bank studies predict little or no change in mineral demand in the 1990s, and also an extended period, in real terms, of low mineral prices. In such a climate the fiscal strategy of government needs to be one which emphasizes revenue sources which are independent of mineral prices. In the 1970s, rising prices made fiscal regimes which capture economic rents attractive. In the 1990s, royalties and other duties which are dependent on the level of production and would also take advantage of any short boom in mineral prices would seem to be the best fiscal regime for a government to follow.     

Jumps in Euribor and the effect of ECB monetary policy announcements

The main tool that the ECB uses to influence monetary policy is through the short-term refinancing rate, a change in the short-term interest rate can in turn cause the whole yield curve to shift. In addition to central bank announcements, interbank rates such as Euribor are also influenced by, forward guidance from the ECB, various macroeconomic events, liquidity in the money markets and the perceived credit worthiness of financial institutions. Forward rates are usually used by policy makers and market practitioners to examine expectations, but options provide additional information about the uncertainty of these expectations, particularly future jump expectations. This research examines the jump characteristics of the 3-month Euribor futures contract and its corresponding futures option contracts using both a jump diffusion model with a Bernoulli jump distribution and option-implied parameters using a jump diffusion process with Poisson distribute. We find that both the Bernoulli jump analysis of historical data and implied jump diffusion model succinctly capture diffusion volatility, jumps and jump size. Using a regression analysis to examine the effect of ECB refinancing rate monetary policy announcements on the 3-month Euribor and the associated jump parameters, we find a significant relationship between ECB announcements and the probability of a jump in Euribor. Regression coefficients on the implied jump amplitude parameters suggest that the market correctly anticipates the direction of the rate announcement suggesting option-implied jump parameters can predict, to some extent, ECB announcements. However, our results also show that there is significant uncertainty before the announcements, and this implies that monetary policy communication is not having the full desired effect.     

Assessing flood mitigation,management, and enforcement using insurance data,California and the USA

Previous research found that National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) premiums collected in some U.S. states, including California, have far exceeded damage payments. However, this finding raises the question of whether such an imbalance represents systematically good flood management or, instead, merely short-term hydrologic good luck. This study investigated patterns in flood losses on structures that pre-date and post-date the first available flood maps (“pre-Flood Insurance Rate Map [FIRM]” vs. “post-FIRM”) in California, several peer states, and nationwide. California has a larger inheritance of pre-FIRM structures than the national average, apparently reflecting development during the latter half of the 20th Century but before most Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps. Pre-FIRM properties are a disproportionate cost burden on the system, and the number of pre-FIRM policies has declined over time, but only slowly. Local patterns in pre-FIRM claims suggest targeted areas for enhanced mitigation efforts, including buyouts. Conversely, we find that claims on post-FIRM policies are a reasonable metric of good floodplain management and enforcement, and California's 38% of post-FIRM policies generated just 24% of the state's NFIP claims. Local “post-FIRM claim hotspots” suggest areas to examine more closely. California continues to be a net payer into the National Flood Insurance Program, with $102 million in payouts 2009–2018 versus $2.3 billion in premiums collected, or 4.5 cents of premiums collected for every dollar of premiums. In California, its peer states, and nationwide, future management of flood risk depends on: (1) continued investment in flood control and mitigation of existing floodplain structures, and (2) prudent planning and limitations on new floodplain and coastal development.     

Theory of storage,inventory and volatility in the LME base metals

The theory of storage, as related to commodities, makes two predictions involving the quantity of the commodity held in inventory. When inventory is low (i.e. a situation of scarcity), spot prices will exceed futures prices, and spot price volatility will exceed futures price volatility. Conversely, during periods of no scarcity, both spot prices and spot price volatility will remain relatively subdued. We test these predictions for the six base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc), and find strong validation for the theory. Including Chinese inventories reported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange strengthens the relationship further. We also introduce the concepts of excess volatility, inventory-implied spot price and inventory-implied spot volatility and illustrate some applications.     

Development finance in the 1990s for Latin American resource exporting countries

As a result of the debt crisis, per capita income in Latin America in 1990 was 10% below its 1981 level. Many resource exporting countries in the region have undertaken wide and deep reforms in order, among other reasons, to attract and retain long-term capital to fuel growth prospects. One newly proposed long-term instrument for development finance and risk management is the commodity bond. Given the sovereign risk component, the costly premiums that must be paid to insure it and more efficient alternative instruments for both issuers and investors, commodity bonds are unlikely to generate the required long-term capital needed to enhance growth prospects. With the continuing globalization of the goods, factors and currency markets, long-term capital can be attracted and maintained in both developed and developing countries by an attractive investment environment characterized by a competitive microeconomy, a stable macroeconomy, strong global linkages, and a serious programme to improve physical and social infrastructure.     

峨眉山景区旅游商品的开发与营销模式

通过对旅游商品定义的综述，界定了旅游商品的定义、范围和功能，同时对峨眉山景区旅游商品的开发、需求、购买力等抽取420份问卷作为样本，分析了峨眉山旅游商品的需求现状，并以旅游者需求现状为依据，对峨眉山旅游商品的开发和营销提出了“4P＋4C＋4R”营销策略，以期对其它景区的旅游商品开发和营销具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Mine size and the structure of costs

The number of operating mines has fallen sharply for most mineral products, and the average size of mine risen, with the changes gathering momentum during the 1990s. The paper looks at trends in copper, zinc and gold, and then explores the relationship between size and unit costs in copper mining, separately for underground and open-pit mines, in order to ascertain the existence and importance of economies of scale. Changes in mine size have been accompanied by major technological and geographical shifts. There is only a weak relationship between the scale of mines and overall unit costs per tonne of copper produced. The paper discusses the data and explores some of the reasons.