Forecasting land use change and its environmental impact at a watershed scale

Urban expansion is a major driving force altering local and regional hydrology and increasing non-point source (NPS) pollution. To explore these environmental consequences of urbanization, land use change was forecast, and long-term runoff and NPS pollution were assessed in the Muskegon River watershed, located on the eastern coast of Lake Michigan. A land use change model, LTM, and a web-based environmental impact model, L-THIA, were used in this study. The outcomes indicated the watershed would likely be subjected to impacts from urbanization on runoff and some types of NPS pollution. Urbanization will slightly or considerably increase runoff volume, depending on the development rate, slightly increase nutrient losses in runoff, but significantly increase losses of oil and grease and certain heavy metals in runoff. The spatial variation of urbanization and its impact were also evaluated at the subwatershed scale and showed subwatersheds along the coast of the lake and close to cities would have runoff and nitrogen impact. The results of this study have significant implications for urban planning and decision making in an effort to protect and remediate water and habitat quality of Muskegon Lake, which is one of Lake Michigan's Areas of Concern (AOC), and the techniques described here can be used in other areas.     

ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF SURFACE RUNOFF IN AN URBANIZING WATERSHED USING SATELLITE IMAGERY1

ABSTRACT: This paper demonstrates how satellite image data [e.g., from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM)], in conjunction with an urban growth model and simple runoff calculations, can be used to estimate future surface runoff and, by implication, water quality within a watershed. To illustrate the method, predictions of land use change and surface runoff are shown for Spring Creek Watershed, a medium sized urbanizing watershed in Central Pennsylvania. Land cover classifications for this watershed were created from images for summertime 1986 and 1996 and subsequently used as input to the Clarke urban growth model, called SLEUTH, to predict land use changes to the year 2025. Simulations with this model show a progressive growth in the percentage of urban pixels and in impervious surface area in the watershed but also an increase in woodland, primarily in previously clear‐cut areas. Given that woodland area will continue to increase in area, surface runoff into Spring Creek is predicted to remain only slightly above present level. However, should the woodland amount fail to increase, surface runoff is then predicted to increase more significantly during the next 25 years. Finally, the concept of urban sprawl is addressed within the context of predicted increases in urbanization by relating the implied increase in impervious surface area to population density within the watershed.     

GIS BASED LONG TERM HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EVALUATION FOR WATERSHED URBANIZATION1

ABSTRACT: To adequately manage impacts of ongoing or future land use changes in a watershed, the magnitude of their hydrologic impacts needs to be assessed. A grid based daily streamflow model was calibrated with two years of observed streamflow data, using time periods when land use data are available and verified by comparison of model predictions with observed streamflow data. Streamflow data were separated into direct runoff and baseflow to estimate the impacts of urbanization on each hydrologic component. Analysis of the ratio between direct runoff and total runoff from 30 years of simulation results and the change in these ratios with urbanization shows that estimated annual direct runoff increased from 49.2 percent (1973) to 63.1 percent (1984) and 65.0 percent (1991), indicating the effects of urbanization are greater on direct runoff than on total runoff. The direct runoff ratio also varies with annual rainfall, with dry year ratios larger than those for wet years. This suggests that the impact of urbanization on areas that are sensitive to runoff ratios, such as stream ecosystems, might be more serious during drier years than in wetter years in terms of water quality and water yield. This indicates that sustainable base‐flow is important to maintaining sound stream ecosystems.     

The Impact of Future Land Use Scenarios on Runoff Volumes in the Muskegon River Watershed

In this article we compared the response of surface water runoff to a storm event for different rates of urbanization, reforestation and riparian buffer setbacks across forty subwatersheds of the Muskegon River Watershed located in Michigan, USA. We also made these comparisons for several forecasted and one historical land use scenarios (over 140 years). Future land use scenarios to 2040 for forest regrowth, urbanization rates and stream setbacks were developed using the Land Transformation Model (LTM). Historical land use information, from 1900 at 5-year time step intervals, was created using a Backcast land use change model configured using artificial neural network and driven by agriculture and housing census information. We show that (1) controlling the rate of development is the most effective policy option to reduce runoff; (2) establishing setbacks along the mainstem are not as effective as controlling urban growth; (3) reforestation can abate some of the runoff effects from urban growth but not all; (4) land use patterns of the 1970s produced the least amount of runoff in most cases in the Muskegon River Watershed when compared to land use maps from 1900 to 2040; and, (5) future land use patterns here not always lead to increased (worse) runoff than the past. We found that while ten of the subwatersheds contained futures that were worse than any past land use configuration, twenty-five (62.5%) of the subwatersheds produced the greatest amount of runoff in 1900, shortly after the entire watershed was clear-cut. One third (14/40) of the subwatersheds contained the minimum amount of runoff in the 1960s and 1970s, a period when forest amounts were greatest and urban amounts relatively small.     

Assessing Watershed-Scale, Long-Term Hydrologic Impacts of Land-Use Change Using a GIS-NPS Model

Land-use change, dominated by an increase in urban/impervious areas, has a significant impact on water resources. This includes impacts on nonpoint source (NPS) pollution, which is the leading cause of degraded water quality in the United States. Traditional hydrologic models focus on estimating peak discharges and NPS pollution from high-magnitude, episodic storms and successfully address short-term, local-scale surface water management issues. However, runoff from small, low-frequency storms dominates long-term hydrologic impacts, and existing hydrologic models are usually of limited use in assessing the long-term impacts of land-use change. A long-term hydrologic impact assessment (L-THIA) model has been developed using the curve number (CN) method. Long-term climatic records are used in combination with soils and land-use information to calculate average annual runoff and NPS pollution at a watershed scale. The model is linked to a geographic information system (GIS) for convenient generation and management of model input and output data, and advanced visualization of model results. The L-THIA/NPS GIS model was applied to the Little Eagle Creek (LEC) watershed near Indianapolis, Indiana, USA. Historical land-use scenarios for 1973, 1984, and 1991 were analyzed to track land-use change in the watershed and to assess impacts on annual average runoff and NPS pollution from the watershed and its five subbasins. For the entire watershed between 1973 and 1991, an 18% increase in urban or impervious areas resulted in an estimated 80% increase in annual average runoff volume and estimated increases of more than 50% in annual average loads for lead, copper, and zinc. Estimated nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) loads decreased by 15% mainly because of loss of agricultural areas. The L-THIA/NPS GIS model is a powerful tool for identifying environmentally sensitive areas in terms of NPS pollution potential and for evaluating alternative land use scenarios for NPS pollution management.     

Impact of Urban Sprawl on Water Quality in Eastern Massachusetts,USA

A study of water quality, land use, and population variations over the past three decades was conducted in eastern Massachusetts to examine the impact of urban sprawl on water quality using geographic information system and statistical analyses. Since 1970, eastern Massachusetts has experienced pronounced urban sprawl, which has a substantial impact on water quality. High spatial correlations are found between water quality indicators (especially specific conductance, dissolved ions, including Ca, Mg, Na, and Cl, and dissolved solid) and urban sprawl indicators. Urbanized watersheds with high population density, high percentage of developed land use, and low per capita developed land use tended to have high concentrations of water pollutants. The impact of urban sprawl also shows clear spatial difference between suburban areas and central cities: The central cities experienced lower increases over time in specific conductance concentration, compared to suburban and rural areas. The impact of urban sprawl on water quality is attributed to the combined effects of population and land-use change. Per capita developed land use is a very important indicator for studying the impact of urban sprawl and improving land use and watershed management, because inclusion of this indicator can better explain the temporal and spatial variations of more water quality parameters than using individual land use or/and population density.     

IMPACTS OF CALIFORNIA'S CLIMATIC REGIMES AND COASTAL LAND USE CHANGE ON STREAMFLOW CHARACTERISTICS1

ABSTRACT: To investigate the impacts of urbanization and climatic fluctuations on stream flow magnitude and variability in a Mediterranean climate, the HEC‐HMS rainfall/runoff model is used to simulate stream flow for a 14‐year period (October 1, 1988, to September 30, 2002) in the Atascadero Creek watershed located along the southern coast of California for 1929, 1998, and 2050 (estimated) land use conditions (8, 38 and 52 percent urban, respectively). The 14‐year period experienced a range of climatic conditions caused mainly by El Nino‐Southern Oscillation variations. A geographic information system is used to delineate the watershed and parameterize the model, which is calibrated using data from two stream flow and eight rainfall gauges. Urbanization is shown to increase peak discharges and runoff volume while decreasing stream flow variability. In all cases, the annual and 14‐year distributions of stream flow are shown to be highly skewed, with the annual maximum 24 hours of discharge accounting for 22 to 52 percent of the annual runoff and the maximum ten days of discharge from an average El Nino year producing 10 to 15 percent of the total 14‐year discharge. For the entire period of urbanization (1929 to 2050), the average increase in annual maximum discharges and runoff was 45 m³/s (300 percent) and 15 cm (350 percent), respectively. Additionally, the projected increase in urbanization from 1998 to 2050 is half the increase from 1929 to 1998; however, increases in runoff (22 m³/s and 7 cm) are similar for both scenarios because of the region's spatial development pattern.     

MODELING THE EFFECTS OF URBANIZATION ON BASIN WATER YIELD AND RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION1

ABSTRACT: The dam impounding White Rock Lake was completed in 1910 to provide water for the City of Dallas. Since then, land use on the watershed has changed from entirely rural to over 77 percent urban. A model called SWRRB (Simulator for Water Resources in Rural Basins) was utilized to determine the effect of urbanization on water and sediment entering the lake. The simulation results show that, if urbanization had not occurred, then the annual surface runoff would be 135 mm rather than 151 mm and the annual sediment yield would be 4.4 t/ha rather than 4.1 t/ha. Also, the effect of urbanization on delivery ratios was shown and a positive linear correlation was found. Finally, the weather generator in SWRRB was utilized to estimate the loss of reservoir capacity until 2050 for three different land use management scenarios.     

IMPACTS OF URBAN LANDUSE ON MACROINVERTEBRATE COMMUNITIES IN SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Macroinvertebrates were used to assess the impact of urbanization on stream quality across a gradient of watershed imperviousness in 43 southeastern Wisconsin streams. The percentage of watershed connected imperviousness was chosen as the urbanization indicator to examine impact of urban land uses on macroinvertebrate communities. Most urban land uses were negatively correlated with the Shannon diversity index, percent of pollution intolerant Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera individuals, and generic richness. Nonurban land uses were positively correlated with these same metrics. The Hilsenhoff biotic index indicated that stream quality declined with increased urbanization. Functional feeding group metrics varied across a gradient of urbanization, suggesting changes in stream quality. Proportions of collectors and gatherers increased, while proportions of filterers, scrapers, and shredders decreased with increased watershed imperviousness. This study demonstrated that urbanization severely degraded stream macroinvertebrate communities, hence stream quality. Good stream quality existed where imperviousness was less than 8 percent, but less favorable assessments were inevitable where imperviousness exceeded 12 to 20 percent. Levels of imperviousness between 8 and 12 percent represented a threshold where minor increases in urbanization were associated with sharp declines in stream quality.     

NONPARAMETRIC STATISTICAL METHODS IN URBAN HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH1

ABSTRACT. In urban hydrologic studies, it is often necessary to determine the effect of changes in urban land use patterns on such runoff characteristics as flood peaks and flow volumes. Nonparametric statistical methods have certain properties that make them a valuable tool for detecting hydrologic change caused by a treatment, such as urbanization, that changes watershed over a period of time. As many hydrologists do not have a working familiarity with nonparametric methods, a number of them are used for illustrative purposes to analyze the effect of urbanization on 24 years of annual flood peaks for a Louisville, Kentucky, watershed. In the example, urbanization was found to increase the central tendency, but not the dispersion of the peaks. Peak flows modeled by holding watershed parameters constant were also found to be increasing because of an upward trend in precipitation. By following the numerical examples in the paper and looking up test statistics in referenced sources, the reader can easily apply these methods to other situations.     

Modeling the relationship between development and storm water and nutrient runoff

The EPA Storm Water Management Model was used to model the effects of urban and agricultural development on storm water runoff from uplands bordering a Louisiana swamp forest. Using this model, we examined the effects of changing land use patterns. By 1995 it is projected that urban land on the uplands bordering the swamp will increase by 321 percent, primarily at the expense of land currently in agriculture. Simulation results indicate that urbanization will cause storm water runoff rates to be up to 4.2 times greater in 1995 than in 1975. Nutrient runoff will increase 28 percent for nitrogen (N) and 16 percent for phosphorus (P) during the same period. The environmental effects of these changes in the receiving swamp forest are examined.     

EFFECTS OF INITIAL ABSTRACTION AND URBANIZATION ON ESTIMATED RUNOFF USING CN TECHNOLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Few studies have been conducted to explore the effects of initial abstraction on estimated direct runoff despite the widespread use of the curve number (CN) method in many hydrologic models to estimate direct runoff. In this study, use of a 5 percent ratio of initial abstraction (I_a) to storage (S) to estimate daily direct runoff with modified CN values for a 5 percent I_a/S value was investigated using the Long‐Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L‐THIA) geographic information system (GIS). In addition, the effects on estimated runoff of altering the hydrologic soil group due to urbanization were investigated. The L‐THIA model was applied to the Indiana Little Eagle Creek watershed with 5 percent and 20 percent I_a/S values, considering hydrologic soil group alteration due to urbanization. The results indicate that uses of a 5 percent l_a/S and modified CN values and Hydrologic Soil Group D for urbanized areas in model runs can improve long term direct runoff prediction.     

Land Use and Climate Variability Amplify Carbon,Nutrient, and Contaminant Pulses: A Review with Management Implications

Nonpoint source pollution from agriculture and urbanization is increasing globally at the same time climate extremes have increased in frequency and intensity. We review >200 studies of hydrologic and gaseous fluxes and show how the interaction between land use and climate variability alters magnitude and frequency of carbon, nutrient, and greenhouse gas pulses in watersheds. Agricultural and urban watersheds respond similarly to climate variability due to headwater alteration and loss of ecosystem services to buffer runoff and temperature changes. Organic carbon concentrations/exports increase and organic carbon quality changes with runoff. Nitrogen and phosphorus exports increase during floods (sometimes by an order of magnitude) and decrease during droughts. Relationships between annual runoff and nitrogen and phosphorus exports differ across land use. CH₄ and N₂O pulses in riparian zones/floodplains predominantly increase with: flooding, warming, low oxygen, nutrient enrichment, and organic carbon. CH₄, N₂O, and CO₂ pulses in streams/rivers increase due to similar factors but effects of floods are less known compared to base flow/droughts. Emerging questions include: (1) What factors influence lag times of contaminant pulses in response to extreme events? (2) What drives resistance/resilience to hydrologic and gaseous pulses? We conclude with eight recommendations for managing watershed pulses in response to interactive effects of land use and climate change.     

WATERSHED URBANIZATION AND CHANGES IN FISH COMMUNITIES IN SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: We compared watershed land‐use and fish community data between the 1970s and 1990s in 47 small streams in southeastern Wisconsin. Our goal was to quantify effects of increasing urbanization on stream fishes in what had been a predominantly agricultural region. In the 43 test watersheds, mean surface coverage by agricultural lands decreased from 54 percent to 43 percent and urban lands increased from 24 percent to 31 percent between 1970 and 1990. Agriculture dominated the four reference watersheds, but neither agriculture (65–59 percent) nor urban (4.4–4.8 percent) land‐uses changed significantly in those watersheds during the study period. From the 1970s to the 1990s the mean number of fish species for the test stream sites decreased 15 percent, fish density decreased 41 percent, and the index of biotic integrity (IBI) score dropped 32 percent. Fish community attributes at the four reference sites did not change significantly during the same period, although density was substantially lower in the 1990s. For both the 1970s and 1990s test sites, numbers of fish species and IBI scores were positively correlated with watershed percent agricultural land coverage and negatively correlated with watershed urban land uses, as indexed by percent effective connected imperviousness. Numbers of fish species per site and IBI scores were highly variable below 10 percent imperviousness, but consistently low above 10 percent. Sites that had less than 10 percent imperviousness and fewer than 10 fish species in the 1970s suffered the greatest relative increase in imperviousness and decline in species number over the study period. Our findings are consistent with previous studies that have found strong negative effects of urban land uses on stream ecosystems and a threshold of environmental damage at about 10 percent imperviousness. We conclude that although agricultural land uses often degrade stream fish communities, agricultural land impacts are generally less severe than those from urbanization on a per‐unit‐area basis.     

EXPORT COEFFICIENT MODELING TO ASSESS PHOSPHORUS LOADING IN AN URBAN WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: An export coefficient modeling approach was used to assess the influence of land use on phosphorus loading to a Southern Ontario stream. A model was constructed for the 1995–1996 water year and calibrated within ± 3 percent of the observed mean concentration of total phosphorus. It was found that runoff from urban areas contributed most to the loading of phosphorus to the stream. When the model was assessed by running it for the 1977–1978 water year, using water quality and land use data collected independently, agreement within ± 7 percent was obtained. The model was then used to forecast the impact of future urban development proposed for the watershed, in terms of phosphorus loading, and to evaluate the reduction in loading resulting from several urban best management practices (BMP). It was determined that phosphorus removal will have to be applied to all the urban runoff from the watershed to appreciably reduce stream phosphorus concentration. Of the BMP designs assessed, an infiltration pond system resulted in the greatest phosphorus load reduction, 50 percent from the 1995–1996 baseline.     

The use of GIS for monitoring and predicting urban growth in east and west St Paul,Winnipeg, Manitoba,Canada

Most urban growth in Canada occurs in the urban-rural fringe. The increasing dispersal of the Canadian urban population is due to centrifugal forces pulling urbanites past the suburbs into the surrounding exurban communities. Most Canadian urban centres are located on prime agricultural land. Exurban sprawl devours an inordinate amount of the better agricultural land. The growth around the city of Winnipeg is a case in point. Within Winnipeg's urban field are the rural municipalities of East and West St Paul. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of urban growth on the agricultural land of these RMs as well as the rate of urban growth in both Municipalities based on database analysis using aerial photographs taken in 1960 and 1989 and Geographic Information System (GIS). East St Paul was found to have a higher rate of urbanization (from 10.14% to 43.75%) between 1960 and 1989 than West St Paul (from 7.36% to 23.57%). The growth prediction using Markov probability chain analysis showed that East St Paul will henceforth experience a reduced rate of increase than West St Paul. The rate of urbanization for both RMs is found to be comparable with areas surrounding other major cities such as Toronto. The largest increases in urban land use categories occurred in and around the existing exurban settlements. It was found that most urbanization take place on the most fertile soil.     

Impact of land use and land cover changes on the ambient temperature in a middle scale city, Takamatsu, in Southwest Japan

There is a lack of information on urban heat island impact on the thermal environment due to low populated urban sprawl, although densely populated urban sprawl impact has been identified by several researchers. The Takamatsu area has recently developed in a low populated urban sprawl style without any increase in population. This paper examined the impact of a low populated urban sprawl on the thermal environment through an analysis of the last 30 years data set and investigated the contribution of vegetation fraction and population density to the temperature trend. As a consequence, it was shown that one of the most significant causative factors of temperature increase is an expansion of non-vegetated area even without population growth. This result implied that vegetated zones should be maintained in urban areas in order to realize sustainable urbanization.     

NATURAL RESTABILIZATION OF STREAM CHANNELS IN URBAN WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Stream channels are known to change their form as a result of watershed urbanization, but do they restabilize under subsequent conditions of constant urban land use? Streams in seven developed and developing watersheds (drainage areas 5–35 km²) in the Puget Sound lowlands were evaluated for their channel stability and degree of urbanization, using field and historical data. Protocols for determining channel stability by visual assessment, calculated bed mobility at bankfull flows, and resurveyed cross‐sections were compared and yielded nearly identical results. We found that channel restabilization generally does occur within one or two decades of constant watershed land use, but it is not universal. When (or if) an individual stream will restabilize depends on specific hydrologic and geomorphic characteristics of the channel and its watershed; observed stability is not well predicted by simply the magnitude of urban development or the rate of ongoing land‐use change. The tendency for channel restabilization suggests that management efforts focused primarily on maintaining stability, particularly in a still‐urbanizing watershed, may not always be necessary. Yet physical stability alone is not a sufficient condition for a biologically healthy stream, and additional rehabilitation measures will almost certainly be required to restore biological conditions in urban systems.     

SIMULATION OF THE EFFECTS OF URBANIZATION ON BASIN STREAMFLOW1

ABSTRACT: The hydrologic modeling of streamflow in the Waterford River Basin has been conducted as part of comprehensive investigations of the effects of urbanization on water resources in the basin. Using a detailed input data base, continuous simulation of streamflow in the study area has been done by means of the HSPF model, which has been calibrated for the existing conditions and then applied to several future land use scenarios. The basin climate and geology contribute to high conversion of precipitation into streamflow under the existing conditions. Consequently, future urban development in the study basin should not increase the annual streamflow, but would contribute to increases in peak flows and the incidence of flooding because of the increased speed of runoff. If the impervious area in the basin is doubled, the peak flows may increase by about 20 percent.     

MODELING NITROGEN TRANSPORT IN THE IPSWICH RIVER BASIN,MASSACHUSETTS, USING A HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION PROGRAM IN FORTRAN (HSPF)1

ABSTRACT: Increased riverine nitrogen (N) fluxes have been strongly correlated with land use changes and are now one of the largest pollution problems in the coastal region of the United States. In the present study, the Hydrological Simulation Program‐FORTRAN (HSPF) is used to simulate transport of N in the Ipswich River basin in Massachusetts and to evaluate the effect of future land use scenarios on the water quality of the river. Model results show that under a land use change scenario constructed with restrictions from environmental protection laws, where 44 percent of the forest in the basin was converted to urban land, stream nitrate concentrations increased by about 30 percent of the present values. When an extreme land use scenario was used, and 100 percent of the forest was converted to urban land, concentrations doubled in comparison to present values. Model simulations also showed that present stream nitrate concentrations might be four times greater than they were prior to urbanization. While pervious lands with high density residential land use generated runoff with the highest N concentrations in HSPF simulations, the results suggested that denitrification in the riparian zone and wetlands coupled with the hydrology of the basin are likely to control the magnitude of nitrate loads to the aquatic system. The simulation results showed that HSPF can predict the general patterns of inorganic N concentrations in the Ipswich River and tributaries. Nevertheless, HSPF has some difficulty simulating the extreme variability of the observed data throughout the main stem and tributaries, probably because of limitations in the representation of wetlands and riparian zones in the model, where N processes such as denitrification seem to play a major role in controlling the transport of N from the terrestrial system to the river reaches.