Information sources for flash flood warnings in Denver, CO and Austin, TX

This research examines sources of information for flash floods in two large metropolitan areas, Denver, CO, and Austin, TX. Previous research has noted that information delivery systems for weather forecasts are geared toward the cultural majority and suggests that inadequate warnings are a primary contributor to deaths and injuries from hazards. This investigation used chi-square analysis to determine the prime warning source preferences and preferred time of day for receiving different media. Results indicate that successful warning messages need to be targeted toward specific sub-populations if the warning is to be received, understood, and responded to properly.     

The performance of the sydney flood warning system, august 1986

During August 1986 Sydney experienced its worst flooding for decades. Some 2,500 properties were flooded and transport was severely disrupted in much of the metropolitan area. The flood provided an opportunity to examine the operation of a warning system in a major Australian city. Pre-existing research into flood warnings was expanded to take advantage of the opportunity.
The warning system is examined in terms of: its impact on flood losses; consumer satisfaction; and inefficiences or breakdowns within the system. Much of the flooded area was not covered by a formal warning system. For the area that was covered, performance could be improved. Problems were experienced with the data collection and transmission network. Warning dissemination was inadequate, and the majority of those surveyed claimed that they did not receive warnings. The actions of householders reduced the flood damage substantially, but this does not appear to be the result of official warnings. Key recommendations concern improving the reliability of the flood detection network and information management.     

Risk communication and risk perception: lessons from the 2011 floods in Brisbane,Australia

Risk communication and risk perception are critical factors in disaster management. Governments at all levels play a part in communicating risk, whereas the perception of risk entails active roles by community participants, including potential and actual victims of disasters. This paper discusses these matters in relation to the floods in Brisbane, Australia, in 2011. The findings are based on interviews with representatives of households whose dwellings or business premises were fully or partially inundated by the waters. The research shows how important it is to recognise the problems of institutional fragmentation in terms of communication and the active engagement of recipients in understanding and interpreting flood risk information (especially for slow‐onset riverine flooding, such as that suffered by Brisbane). Locally targeted information on risk is of vital importance in avoiding the misinterpretation of warning information in relation to environmental cues and in promoting adequate responses. The paper concludes with some recommendations.     

泥石流早期识别与监测预警研究进展探讨

近年来,受极端地震和极端天气的影响,泥石流灾害日益加剧,山区城镇泥石流风险问题逐渐引起大众的关注。泥石流的早期识别和监测预警作为防灾减灾的有效途径之一,已在山区城镇及重大工程建设区发挥重要的减灾作用。分析总结泥石流早期识别与监测预警技术方法和理论的目的在于掌握其发展现状与问题,进一步为山区城镇泥石流灾害防灾减灾提供有效应急对策。同时指出改进当前存在问题可为后期发展提供参考依据。本文通过文献综述法在阅读大量文献基础上,从技术与设备、预警理论与模型和监测预警体系3个方面对泥石流早期识别和监测预警研究进行回顾与评述,并针对其不足提出了加强深度学习在泥石流早期识别中运用,注重构建地面因素与天上因素耦合的泥石流预警模型,完善泥石流灾害应急系统的初步看法。     

基于小程序的海洋牧场台风灾害预警预报服务

台风多要素信息及灾情状况是海洋牧场各方急切想掌握的,而应用于海洋牧场灾害预警专报服务还未见报道,基于此开发了海洋牧场台风灾害预警预报服务小程序。结合wx.request请求获取第三方要素数据与自建云数据库访问灾情数据。搭建海洋牧场台风灾害预警预报服务的层次结构体系构架,推出海洋牧场气象要素预警预报、海洋牧场水文要素预警预报、海洋牧场台风要素预警预报、海洋牧场台风灾害预警专报、服务订阅与消息推送等应用服务功能。基于MAP组件技术整合“一张图”展示海洋牧场台风灾害的数据、服务及成果。1409号台风“威马逊”实例应用表明,海洋牧场台风灾害预警预报服务小程序为防风减灾提供了一种快捷实用的应用途径。     

National organizations and famine early warning the case of mali(1)

In the Sahelian countries of West Africa, the problems of drought and famine are sufficiently long term to justify the existence of permanent food security agencies. Yet donors are reluctant to fund these agencies when there is not a crisis, forcing poor countries to use their own resources for food security and famine early warning efforts. To make more effective use of limited resources and since the data needs for effective famine early warning are similar to those for basic rural development, information systems to provide data simultaneously for development projects and famine early warning should be developed and supported. In Mali, one of the larger and poorer countries of the West African Sahel, basic information systems which gather a range of appropriate data already exist, but there need to be improvements in the quality of design and the timeliness of analysis to make the information more useful for either development or famine early warning.     

地震预警系统应用的社会影响调查与分析

地震预警系统建设是降低地震灾害的一个重要途径,可以有效地减少人员伤亡和财产损失,但地震预警系统目前还处于发展阶段,应用中存在一定风险。设计了若干个关于地震预警系统应用的社会调查问卷,以通过调查结果定性地评估地震预警系统产生的社会影响,统计公众对预警系统的认识和需求,分析预警信息发布对公众的影响和公众对地震漏报、误报等风险的接受程度,以及地震预警系统相关的法律问题。调查结果显示,我国公众对地震预警系统的期望程度及有效性评价均很高,但也存在着一些问题,如对地震预警相关知识了解较少,对紧急事件应变能力较差,对预警盲区和漏报等风险接受程度较低等。最后,结合国外地震预警系统的研究成果和应用现状,提出了相关建议及应对措施,希望能对我国预警系统的建设提供参考作用。     

Improving flood warnings in Europe: a research and policy agenda

Abstract

Warnings and emergency planning for flooding are based on the reality that no matter how thorough our investigations and flood prevention efforts through engineered structural works or land use management, some risk will always remain. This paper examines recent experience with flood warnings in the UK and continental Europe. It combines this experience with an overview of the relevant literature to identify lessons for incorporation into policy, and problem areas which would most obviously benefit from additional research. Throughout, the emphasis is on the non-engineering aspects of warning systems. Results indicate that much is being achieved in terms of the detail of warning design, but the broader issues seem to be largely ignored by both the research literature and practice. First among these broader issues is the failure, by those charged with warning system development and operation, to conceptualise the warning task as one based explicitly on the needs of those at risk. Making this happen will require the development of processes to build the necessary culture of cooperation and learning among the many organisations involved.     

基于GIS的地质灾害风险预警系统设计

利用GIS软件的二次开发技术,应用基于风险评价的预警方法建立地质灾害预警模型,设计地质灾害风险预警系统,在Visual Studio 2012.NET的开发环境下,以C#作为开发语言,并结合ArcGIS Engine研发.最后以通化县作为研究区域,验证此系统的可行性,结果表明该系统实现了地质灾害风险预警预报,具有较高的...     

哈尔滨市短临天气预报研究

从短临预报的定义和内容出发，就短临预报业务系统流程、地面要素加密信息收集显示、多普勒雷达预警信息和预报指标、重大灾害性短临预报的气象要素信息／预警信息／预报指标及物理量、不稳定指数预警信息／预报指标及合并显示、卫星云图降水／冰雹估计、3h降水／温度预报方法、预报编辑系统设计等方面，阐述了哈尔滨市短临预报业务的建设过程及其开展的方式、方法。     

Snow-avalanche hazards, Southern Glacier National Park, Montana: The nature of local knowledge and individual responses

A survey was conducted of well-educated residents of East Glacier Park, Montana, who are frequently isolated by snow avalanches. It showed that people in this area do not alter driving habits during times of avalanche danger, are not aware of the local avalanche warning system, and have not efficiently garnered information about the avalanche hazard.     

基于网络的突发性灾害预警及救灾系统——以雪灾为例

自然灾害是不可避免的,为减少自然灾害给人类带来的损失,以ArcIMS为平台,引入模糊神经网络构建了雪灾预测模型,建立了基于网络的突发性灾害联动预警及救灾系统.系统可以自动/半自动地进行不同灾害等级的分类,发出灾害预警警报,并在此基础上结合气象对灾害诱发条件的预报,提出预防的工程技术措施,方便具有不同用户权限的用户使用.     

台风等重大灾害性事件的风险认知及预警机制

通过调查受灾民众及未受灾民众对台风等重大灾害性事件的风险认知及预警情况,比较两者的差异,为政府对重大灾害性事件建立预警管理模式提供依据。研究结果表明:①受灾民众和未受灾民众对重大灾害性事件的风险认知水平低,受灾民众对台风的风险认知明显高于未受灾民众(P<0.01);②两者对提升防灾意识的意愿强烈但对防灾资讯关心程度不够,且受灾民众明显更关心防灾资讯(P<0.01);③两者在通过某项预防措施可以避免灾害所造成的损失和撤离危险地区的问题上意见基本一致,但未受灾民众对政府辅助撤离更具有依赖性(P<0.01,P<0.05);④受灾民众比未受灾民众更相信科学家对灾害的预警能力(P<0.01),但均对目前的灾害预警系统满意度一般。     

Facebook and Twitter,communication and shelter,and the 2011 Tuscaloosa tornado

This paper represents one of the first attempts to analyse the many ways in which Facebook and Twitter were used during a tornado disaster. Comparisons between five randomly selected campus samples and a city of Tuscaloosa, Alabama, sample revealed that campus samples used Facebook and Twitter significantly more both before and after the tornado, but Facebook usage was not significantly different after the event. Furthermore, differences in social media usage and other forms of communication before the tornado were found for age, education, and years lived in Tuscaloosa. Generally, age and education were inversely proportionate to social media usage. Influences on shelter‐seeking actions varied between social media users and three random samples of non‐social media users; however, it appears that social media respondents were likely to be using a smartphone simultaneously to access warning polygon information, to receive text message alerts, and to listen or respond to environmental cues.     

动物行为异常与地震灾害预警

地震前地壳中的应力变化会引起在一定区域范围内的地球物理场与地球化学场变化。动物有感受这种变化的能力,在地震发生前数天或数小时,动物可能会不安、抑郁或狂躁、迁徙或逃亡。动物的这种能力是在长期进化过程中形成的,动物在自我保护的同时有可能为人类提供地震预警信号。本文概述了动物感受地震灾害的机制,分析了从基因遗传水平上解释动物地震灾害避险能力的途径,阐述了找出可能作为灾害预警信号的特有动物异常反应的意义,讨论了建立试验性地震灾害动物行为异常预警系统的方法。     

Traditional warning signs of cyclones on remote islands in Fiji and Tonga

Traditional knowledge of disasters has been found to save lives. On remote islands where telecommunications to the mainland are unreliable, unless there are always working batteries in the radio, signs from the environment may be the only warning of an oncoming cyclone. But this knowledge is in danger of being lost, as it is an oral history not well documented, and younger people increasingly rely on technology. This article presents the results of fieldwork on remote islands in Fiji and Tonga in the South Pacific, documenting natural warning signs on islands in two different countries. The results show that there are numerous known signs, with remarkable similarities and consistencies between the two islands. This provides evidence that not only is traditional knowledge of warning signs for cyclones alive and well, the consistency in the signs suggests support for this knowledge as being just as important as western scientific knowledge. The integration of traditional knowledge and western scientific knowledge into a comprehensive warning system may help to overcome some of the limitations of the existing system and the reasons why warnings are sometimes ignored.     

Influences on stakeholder support for a wildfire early warning system in a UK protected area

Projected increases in wildfire risk and impacts to human populations in the UK have prompted the installation of expanded management approaches such as early warning systems (EWSs). Newer iterations of wildfire EWSs help mitigate risk through rapid detection, often using high-resolution monitoring technology and instantaneous information collection. While existing research suggests that local social context plays an important role in the effective application of EWSs, little is known about factors that contribute to stakeholder support for these technocratic systems and their successful implementation in protected areas. This study examines support for an EWS in Northumberland National Park, UK, using focus groups with a broad range of local stakeholders. We found that diverse stakeholder understandings of wildfire, different perceptions of wildfire risk, and varied identification of values at risk collectively help explain mixed support for the EWS. Mixed support also was an outgrowth of distrust between several stakeholder groups, indicating a need for improved communication regarding wildfire risk management across stakeholder groups. Results suggest that EWSs adopted in multi-use protected areas shared by a range of stakeholder are most likely to be successful when stakeholders have shared understandings of the hazard and opportunities for collective planning to address its risks. We conclude that EWSs are a viable approach to wildfire risk reduction, but there needs to be a critical consideration of pre-existing stakeholder dynamics for effective EWS implementation.     

Criteria for Evaluating the Condition of a Tropical Cyclone Warning System

This paper evaluates the condition (i.e. health) of a tropical cyclone warning system (TCWS) during a 'quiet period' between infrequent intense cyclones. Capacity to make pre-disaster evaluations is important--disaster warning systems need to be in sound condition before, not after, disaster. The research--part of the UK's International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction Flagship Programme--focuses upon an evaluatory method first used on flood warning systems. The Criteria-development Matrix comprises social, organisational and institutional criteria by which a TCWS may be assessed using a five-stage development scale. This method is used to evaluate Mauritius's TCWS using in-depth interview data. Ways to enhance the method and apply it to other disaster warning systems are discussed. The TCWS in Mauritius is a relatively sound one from which others can learn. Weaknesses requiring attention for Mauritius's TCWS to progress to an advanced level of development are identified.     

Humanitarian information systems and emergencies in the Greater Horn of Africa: logical components and logical linkages

Natural and man-made emergencies are regular occurrences in the Greater Horn of Africa region. The underlying impoverishment of whole populations is increasing, making it more difficult to distinguish between humanitarian crises triggered by shocks and those resulting from chronic poverty. Shocks and hazards can no longer be seen as one-off events that trigger a one-time response. In countries that are both poor and exposed to frequent episodes of debilitating drought or chronic conflict, information needs tend to be different from the straightforward early warning/commodity accounting models of information systems that have proven reliable in past emergencies. This paper describes the interdependent components of a humanitarian information system appropriate for this kind of complex environment, noting the analytical links between the components and operational links to programme and policy. By examining a series of case studies from the Greater Horn region, the paper demonstrates that systems lacking one or more of these components will fail to provide adequate information--and thus incur humanitarian costs. While information always comes with a cost, the price of poor information--or none--is higher. And in situations of chronic vulnerability, in which development interventions are likely to be interspersed with both safety nets and emergency interventions on a recurrent basis, investment in improved information is a good investment from both a humanitarian and a financial viewpoint.     

Getting the Scale Right: A Comparison of Analytical Methods for Vulnerability Assessment and Household-level Targeting

This paper introduces broad concepts of vulnerability, food security and famine. It argues that the concepts and theories driving development and implementation of vulnerability assessment tools are related to their utility. The review concludes that socio-geographic scale is a key issue, and challenge. It analyses three vulnerability assessment (VA) methods, using Ethiopia as a case study. Facing the challenges of vulnerability assessment and early warning requires providing accurate information at the required scale, useful for multiple decision-makers within realistic institutional capacities.