Price prospects in Western Europe for internationally traded fossil fuels until 2000

A methodology for the long-term assessment of prices is designed and applied to the international markets for coal, oil and natural gas and likely price developments between 1990 and 2000 are explored. The coal market will remain competitive, and the long-term price will be determined by the total cost of marginal supply. The oil price will be set, even in the long term, substantially above the competitive level, by those who control the exceptional Middle East resource base. The traditional link between gas and oil prices will erode in the 1990s, and gas will be independently and competively priced by the turn of the century. Resource constraints are not expected to push prices upwards within the time horizon of the study. The relative price of gas will fall over the forecast period, and its market share will increase as a consequence.     

The outlook for oil

Between now and 2000, the demand for oil is expected to be moderate and the supply abundant. Economic growth is almost twice as slow as in 1973 and requires 25–30% less energy per unit of GNP. The demand for oil is therefore growing at a rate of two to three times slower. Meeting the demand for oil between now and 2000 is within the capability of the oil-producing countries, in many cases with modest additional investment. Gas and coal will be very cost competitive in relation to oil and will serve as a break on future explosive price increases.     

Energy Conservation in Rapid-Growth Economies of Asia

Energy demand, including demand for petroleum, is expected to increase at a faster rate in the rapidly-developing nations of East and Southeast Asia than elsewhere in the world through the turn of the century. In the aggregate, the countries of this region are heavily dependent on imported oil, coal and natural gas. Rapid industrialization, electrification and increased consumer demand for energy-consuming durable goods and housing underlie the expected strong growth in energy consumption. Substantial scope for greater economy in energy-use exists in the industrial and transport sectors but effects in these areas will require effective management and institutional support in addition to getting prices right. In the context of balance of payments and external debt considerations, and the continued growth of energy consumption in East and Southeast Asia, improving energy conservation will be of great importance in lessening the likelihood that future economic development will be constrained by energy problems.     

Application of coal ash to environmental improvement: Transformation into zeolite, potassium fertilizer, and FGD absorbent

The rapid increase in population and economic growth have led to an increase in energy demand. Coal reserves are distributed worldwide, and coal is now known to be the most stable and available energy source. However, utilization of coal as an energy source involves the generation of a great amount of coal ash, and the recycling rate of the ash is rather low. Coal ash is mainly used in civil construction materials, and there is a limit to the demand for coal ash by construction industries: therefore, the increasing amount of coal ash will be a serious problem in the near future. Different applications should be considered. In this paper, three environmentally-friendly methods for coal ash recycling are described. Firstly, alkali treatment can transform coal ash to zeolite, which is used in deodorant and for wastewater treatment and soil improvement. Secondly, potassium silicate fertilizer is produced from coal ash and has a higher retentivity in the soil than that of conventional fertilizers. Thirdly, emission of sulfur dioxide is controlled by flue gas desulfurization using coal ash. It is considered that environmentally-friendly use of coal ash is important from the viewpoints of energy, economy, and environmental strategy in order to realize the concept of sustainable development.     

Copper: after the boom

Copper demand is expected to turn down in the latter part of 1989 and then dip further in 1990. The slump in demand is expected to be modest, however, much less severe than the post oil shock recessions of the mid-1970s and early 1980s. By 1991 a healthy growth is expected to resume. However, major expansions to production capacity are in track and excessive production is expected to keep the copper market in surplus for the next five years. Thus, prices are expected to decline sharply and remain at quite low levels through the mid-1990s.     

World phosphate supply

The Bureau of Mines investigated the resources, costs, capacities, market relationships, and short- and long-run supply of phosphate rock and phosphoric acid. The 206 mines and deposits evaluated in 30 market economy countries (MECs) contain an estimated 35.1 billion tonnes of recoverable phosphate rock (demonstrated resource level). US resources are sufficient to satisfy both the domestic market and an export market for phosphate products well beyond 2000. Resource depletion at current producers, however, means new property development (with higher costs) will be required if US production levels are to be maintained. Existing worldwide capacity can satisfy expected demand through the early 1990s. Expansion at existing mines or low demand growth could mean no new property development is required before the late 1990s. Worldwide, almost $8 billion could be required for the development of new phosphate rock properties between now and 2000, given 3% annual growth in demand. Though profit may not be the principal motivation for development of government-owned operations, most properties that could develop in the 1990s would require price increases of 20–50% to break even. To earn a 15% rate of return on investment, prices must rise to nearly double the $23–271 tonne US price level of 1988. Current US phosphate rock and phosphoric acid producers appear to be competitive (on a variable cost basis) with many other suppliers in major markets. New US properties will have higher variable costs than current producers; however, they are competitive with most projected new foreign development. The US phosphoric acid industry will most likely face increased competition as more of the foreign phosphate rock producers develop the capacity to process rock into phosphoric acid and other fertilizer products.     

Oxy-fuel coal combustion—A review of the current state-of-the-art

Carbon dioxide emissions will continue being a major environmental concern due to the fact that coal will remain a major fossil-fuel energy resource for the next few decades. To meet future targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, capture and storage of CO₂ is required. Carbon capture and storage technologies that are currently the focus of research centres and industry include: pre-combustion capture, post-combustion capture, and oxy-fuel combustion. This review deals with the oxy-fuel coal combustion process, primarily focusing on pulverised coal (PC) combustion, and its related research and development topics. In addition, research results related to oxy-fuel combustion in a circulating fluidised bed (CFB) will be briefly dealt with.During oxy-fuel combustion, a combination of oxygen, with a purity of more than 95 vol.%, and recycled flue gas (RFG) referred to as oxidant is used for combusting the fuel producing a gas consisting of mainly CO₂ and water vapour, which after purification and compression, is ready for storage. The high oxygen demand is supplied by a cryogenic air separation process, which is the only commercially available mature technology. The separation of oxygen from air as well as the purification and liquefaction of the CO₂-enriched flue gas consumes significant auxiliary power. Therefore, the overall net efficiency is expected to be decreased by 8–12% points, corresponding to a 21–35% increase in fuel consumption. Alternatively, ion transport membranes (ITMs) are proposed for oxygen separation, which might be more energy efficient. However, since ITMs are far away from becoming a mature technology, it is widely expected that cryogenic air separation will be the selected technology in the near future. Oxygen combustion is associated with higher temperatures compared with conventional air combustion. Both fuel properties as well as limitations of steam and metal temperatures of the various heat exchanger sections of the boiler require a moderation of the temperatures in the combustion zone and in the heat-transfer sections. This moderation in temperature is accomplished by means of recycled flue gas. The interdependencies between the fuel properties, the amount and temperature of the recycled flue gas, and the resulting oxygen concentration in the combustion atmosphere are reviewed.The different gas atmosphere resulting from oxy-fuel combustion gives rise to various questions related to firing, in particular, with respect to the combustion mechanism, pollutant reduction, the risk of corrosion, and the properties of the fly ash or its resulting deposits. In this review, detailed nitrogen and sulphur chemistry was investigated in a laboratory-scale facility under oxy-fuel combustion conditions. Oxidant staging succeeded in reducing NO formation with effectiveness comparable to that typically observed in conventional air combustion. With regard to sulphur, a considerable increase in the SO₂ concentration was measured, as expected. However, the H₂S concentration in the combustion atmosphere in the near-flame zone increased as well. Further results were obtained in a pilot-scale test facility, whereby acid dew points were measured and deposition probes were exposed to the combustion environment. Slagging, fouling and corrosion issues have so far been addressed via short-term exposure and require further investigation.Modelling of PC combustion processes by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has become state-of-the-art for conventional air combustion. Nevertheless, the application of these models for oxy-fuel combustion conditions needs adaptation since the combustion chemistry and radiative heat transfer is altered due to the different combustion gas atmosphere.CFB technology can be considered mature for conventional air combustion. In addition to its inherent advantages like good environmental performance and fuel flexibility, it offers the possibility of additional heat exchanger arrangements in the solid recirculation system, i.e. the ability to control combustion temperatures despite relatively low flue gas recycle ratios even when combusting in the presence of high oxygen concentrations.     

Future U.S. Water Consumption: The Role of Energy Production1

Elcock, Deborah, 2010. Future U.S. Water Consumption: The Role of Energy Production. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):447-460. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00413.x Abstract: This study investigates how meeting domestic energy production targets for both fossil and renewable fuels may affect future water demand. It combines projections of energy production developed by the U.S. Department of Energy with estimates of water consumption on a per-unit basis (water-consumption coefficients) for coal, oil, gas, and biofuels production, to estimate and compare the domestic freshwater consumed. Although total domestic freshwater consumption is expected to increase by nearly 7% between 2005 and 2030, water consumed for energy production is expected to increase by nearly 70%, and water consumed for biofuels (biodiesel and ethanol) production is expected to increase by almost 250%. By 2030, water consumed in the production of biofuels is projected to account for nearly half of the total amount of water consumed in the production of all energy fuels. Most of this is for irrigation, and the West North Central Region is projected to consume most of this water in 2030. These findings identify an important potential future conflict between renewable energy production and water availability that warrants further investigation and action to ensure that future domestic energy demand can be met in an economically efficient and environmentally sustainable manner.     

From the erosion of crude oil prices to reorganization of the oil industry

Comparison of data on world energy consumption for 1986, 1987 and 1988 indicates that the consumption of all forms of energy increased during the period, but the demand for oil increased at a lesser rate than that of other energy sources. Although the pattern varies between countries, the overall picture is one of increased use of natural gas, coal, nuclear and hydropower as an energy source. Part of the reason for the low growth in oil demand is the oil conservation measures put in place when oil was much more expensive, but may partly be due to the scepticism of many people about the future movement of oil prices. The likely continuation of a low growth market for oil has led some oil exporting countries to move downstream in an effort to secure a dependable market for their oil and oil products.     

Impact of different public E&P policies on natural gas reserves and production in Pakistan

Low wellhead domestic gas prices over the past few years have led to the beginning of a shortage in natural gas reserves and production in Pakistan. Gas demand steadily rises in all sectors for being an economical fuel as compare to substitutes. In the view of foregoing consumption trend, the demand for gas is expected to grow with a higher pace during the 2010s. On the contrary, indigenous gas reserves are running out and cannot keep up with the demand. This paper examines the extent of upstream activities in different petroleum policy regimes. The wellhead price for indigenous gas is compared with the prices of alternatives (for example, gas import prices). In order to put the problem in perspective, the relationship between wellhead gas price and cumulative gas reserves in Pakistan are analyzed and we find that the looming gas shortage can be ameliorated in the short-run and eliminated in the long-run through incentivized wellhead price. To put it briefly, the idea is mooted to first take advantage of huge domestic reserves to ensure competitive consumer prices for gas. The findings are applicable to several other economies with under-developed natural resources.     

Hydrogen production from biomass

The ‘hydrogen economy’ has received considerable attention in academic, industrial and political contexts. There are opportunities for vast reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, increased energy security and greater overall efficiency. However, if hydrogen is to become a fundamental energy source for electrical power generation, as well as a transportation fuel, novel generation pathways will be necessary to meet the increase in demand. A promising means for generating hydrogen is the thermochemical conversion of biomass to a synthesis gas, composed of a mixture of hydrogen, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide and methane. In order to manipulate the composition and maximise the hydrogen output, a calcium-based carbon dioxide sorbent can be utilised in situ. The removal of carbon dioxide alters the reaction chemistry to preferentially produce hydrogen. In this work we report on the characterisation of a likely Ca-based carbon dioxide sorbent and demonstrate the merits of hydrogen production from biomass, with in situ carbon dioxide capture, on the basis of a thermodynamic study. Using this model we show that hydrogen output from biomass gasification can be increased from 40%-vol to 80%-vol (dry basis) when a carbon dioxide sorbent is used.     

Coal Receiving Terminals in Relation to Electricity Generation in Developing Countries

With the rapid increase in the price of oil in the 1970s, many developing countries are beginning to look to steam coal as an energy source. Much of this coal will have to be transported from coal-producing countries to coal-consuming countries by sea and coal-receiving terminals will have to be built especially in those countries which have not been coal importers in the past. The international market in steam coal is examined and predictions are made as to the amount of coal that developing countries are likely to import from electric power generation. The operation of a coal-receiving terminal is discussed and estimates are provided as to the size and cost of coal terminals required to meet the coal import needs of developing countries.     

The Mortgaged Future: Energy Strategy and Public Policy

In this article, the first of a series of viewpoint pieces in Natural Resources Forum , the president of a major transnational energy corporation analyses the pivotal role of the United States in determining world energy trends and argues that development of nuclear energy and coal will be necessary to meet demand as world oil supplies dwindle in the 1990's. In the United States, the lack of a clear-cut government policy coupled with opposition to nuclear energy hampers the development of alternate energy sources for the future. This situation is mirrored in other parts of the world. Unless assessments of the long lead times for solar and nuclear fusion as sources of energy are accepted soon as realistic and unless efforts to develop nuclear and coal are accelerated, the United States may face grave energy shortfalls in the medium term.     

解析电除尘烟温与粉尘特性的最佳结合点

分析了电除尘烟温对粉尘特性的影响,以及烟温对电除尘器效率的影响,从中找出烟温调节与粉尘特性的最佳结合点。利用烟温调节的理念,应用余热利用节能电除尘技术对电除尘器进行提效改造,通过实例证明,这既可扩大电除尘器适应性和提高电除尘效率、满足低排放要求,又可节省电煤消耗和降低电耗,具有环保与经济的双重效益。     

Restructuring of the aluminium industry

In the 1980s, the basic strategies of the major integrated aluminium companies have been to emphasize added investment in downstream activities at the expense of investment in smelting and raw material supply. The paper examines the rationale for such investment strategies, explores the advantages and disadvantages of downstream investment and presents projections of future demand and capacity in the industry. Overall, the industry appears to be in good shape until the mid-1990s when demand is likely to exceed currently projected capacity.     

Pig iron production structure in Japan

Japan is the world's largest steel producing country, and around half of its total input requirements for coking coal and iron ore are sourced from Australia. Moreover, around half of Australia's total coking coal and iron ore exports go to Japan each year. Therefore, changes in the demand for these two inputs are likely to have a significant impact on Australia. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the production structure of the blast furnaces in Japan and factors affecting the demand for iron making raw materials. The empirical study is based on the generalized Leontief cost function. Because of its functional flexibility, the model allows testing various hypotheses regarding pig iron production from blast furnaces. Based on the data from 1974 to 1991, the modelling results show that the Japanese ironmaking technology, when considered as an aggregate production process using fuel and iron ore as major inputs, could be characterized by fixed factor proportions, constant returns to scale and technical changes that can be explained by systematic changes in input mix. Moreover, while there is little variation in the iron ore usage rate, variations in fuel usage rate can be explained largely by changes in the make-up of iron ore charge and blast furnace production capacity over the sample period.     

Seaborne iron ore trade in the 1990s

This paper discusses how world steel production and seaborne iron ore trade have grown since 1950. The role of steel production forecasts in determining investment in the iron ore industry is examined. Forecasts for world steel production and the demand and supply of seaborne iron ore in the 1990s are presented. It is predicted that world steel production will increase by 64 million tons between 1991 and 2000. This increase will be located principally in the developing countries and China. The corresponding increase in seaborne iron ore trade will be approximately 55 million tons. Expansion projects will be located mainly in Australia and Brazil, but no greenfield iron ore projects will be undertaken. By the end of the decade, the demand for seaborne iron ore will be equal to its supply.     

Intensive Livestock Farming: Global Trends, Increased Environmental Concerns, and Ethical Solutions

By 2050, global livestock production is expected to double—growing faster than any other agricultural sub-sector—with most of this increase taking place in the developing world. As the United Nation’s four-hundred-page report, Livestock’s Long Shadow: Environmental Issues and Options, documents, livestock production is now one of three most significant contributors to environmental problems, leading to increased greenhouse gas emissions, land degradation, water pollution, and increased health problems. The paper draws on the UN report as well as a flurry of other recently published studies in order to demonstrate the effect of intensive livestock production on global warming and on people’s health. The paper’s goal is to outline the problems caused by intensive livestock farming and analyze a number of possible solutions, including legislative changes and stricter regulations, community mobilizing, and consumers choosing to decrease their demand for animal products.     

Developments and prospects of world lead and zinc mining

World developments in lead and zinc are examined for 1970-90 and projections presented for 1995. Although lead consumption has Increased during the period under review, lead mine production has been on a decline, the differences being made up from secondary lead sources. Lead mine production is projected to be steady to 1995, with increased consumption continuing to be met from secondary sources. Zinc mine production increased at a trend rate of about 1% per year between 1970 and 1990, but for 1991-95, production is expected to grow at a lower rate. For 1990-95 zinc consumption is expected to grow at a rate of 2.3%. This modest mine production increase to 1995 is unlikely to be adequate to meet growth in MEC zinc consumption.     

Challenges to liberalism: The case of Australian energy policy

This paper considers liberal and nationalist economic policy approaches to the ownership and development of Australian energy resources (oil, gas, coal and uranium). In the two decades prior to 1983, Australia pursued economic policies in relation to its energy resources which could broadly be described as ‘nationalist’. Governments of the day intervened in development decisions in an effort to enhance the ‘national interest’. From 1983, along with the deregulation of the Australian economy as a whole, policy relating to energy resources was liberalised. Development of energy reserves henceforth occurred according to the dictates of the market. This paper argues that recent Australian energy policy initiatives reflect an increase in nationalist influences and a retreat from the liberalisation agenda that dominated energy policy making in the 1980s and 1990s. Three examples are discussed where policy has been influenced by a nationalist framework: (1) the domestic gas reservation policy in Western Australia; (2) Australian government efforts to promote a ‘value adding’ nuclear processing industry and (3) Australian Labor Party policy giving preferential financial incentives for gas to liquids projects. The re-emergence of nationalism in Australia is occurring either because policy makers now favour it as a path to energy security or in some cases because they believe that appeals to nationalism will generate political support.