Performance of Greater Sage-Grouse Models for Conservation Assessment in the Interior Columbia Basin, U.S.A.

Abstract: Valid modeling of habitats and populations of Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus) is a critical management need because of increasing concern about population viability. Consequently, we evaluated the performance of two models designed to assess landscape conditions for Greater Sage-Grouse across 13.6 million ha of sagebrush steppe in the interior Columbia Basin and adjacent portions of the Great Basin of the western United States (referred to as the basin). The first model, the environmental index model, predicted conditions at the scale of the subwatershed (mean size of approximately 7800 ha) based on inputs of habitat density, habitat quality, and effects of human disturbance. Predictions ranged on a continuous scale from 0 for lowest environmental index to 2 for optimal environmental index. The second model, the population outcome model, predicted the composite, range-wide conditions for sage grouse based on the contribution of environmental index values from all subwatersheds and measures of range extent and connectivity. Population outcomes were expressed as five classes (A through E) that represented a gradient from continuous, well-distributed populations (outcome A) to sparse, highly isolated populations with a high likelihood of extirpation (outcome E). To evaluate performance, we predicted environmental index values and population outcome classes in areas currently occupied by sage grouse versus areas where extirpation has occurred. Our a priori expectations were that models should predict substantially worse environmental conditions ( lower environmental index) and a substantially higher probability of extirpation ( lower population outcome class) in extirpated areas. Results for both models met these expectations. For example, a population outcome of class E was predicted for extirpated areas, as opposed to class C for occupied areas. These results suggest that our models provided reliable landscape predictions for the conditions tested. This finding is important for conservation planning in the basin, where the models were used to evaluate management of federal lands for sage grouse.     

Comparing environmental influences on coral bleaching across and within species using clustered binomial regression

Differential susceptibility among reef-building coral species can lead to community shifts and loss of diversity as a result of temperature-induced mass bleaching events. We evaluate environmental influences on coral colony bleaching over an 8-year period in the Florida Keys, USA. Clustered binomial regression is used to develop models incorporating taxon-specific responses to the environment in order to identify conditions and species for which bleaching is likely to be severe. By building three separate models incorporating environment, community composition, and taxon-specific responses to environment, we show observed prevalence of bleaching reflects an interaction between community composition and local environmental conditions. Environmental variables, including elevated sea temperature, solar radiation, and reef depth, explained 90% and 78% of variability in colony bleaching across space and time, respectively. The effects of environmental variables were only partially explained (33% of variability) by corresponding differences in community composition. Taxon-specific models indicated individual coral species responded differently to local environmental conditions and had different sensitivities to temperature-induced bleaching. For many coral species, but not all, bleaching was exacerbated by high solar radiation. A 25% reduction in the probability of bleaching in shallow locations for one species may reflect an ability to acclimatize to local conditions. Overall, model results indicate predictions of coral bleaching require knowledge of not just the environmental conditions or community composition, but the responses of individual species to the environment. Model development provides a useful tool for coral reef management by quantifying the influence of the local environment on individual species bleaching sensitivities, identifying susceptible species, and predicting the likelihood of mass bleaching events with changing environmental conditions.     

Fecundity as a Basis for Risk Assessment of Nonindigenous Freshwater Molluscs

Abstract:  The most efficient way to reduce future damages from nonindigenous species is to prevent the introduction of harmful species. Although ecologists have long sought to predict the identity of such species, recent methodological advances promise success where previous attempts failed. We applied recently developed risk assessment approaches to nonindigenous freshwater molluscs at two geographic scales: the Laurentian Great Lakes basin and the 48 contiguous states of the United States. We used data on natural history and biogeography to discriminate between established freshwater molluscs that are benign and those that constitute nuisances (i.e., cause environmental and/or economic damage). Two statistical techniques, logistic regression and categorical tree analysis, showed that nuisance status was positively associated with fecundity. Other aspects of natural history and biogeography did not significantly affect likelihood of becoming a nuisance. We then used the derived statistical models to predict the chance that 15 mollusc species not yet in natural ecosystems would cause damage if they become established. We also tested whether time since establishment is related to the likelihood that nonindigenous mollusc species in the Great Lakes and United States would cause negative impacts. No significant relationship was evident at the U.S. scale, but recently established molluscs within the Great Lakes were more likely to cause negative impacts. This may reflect changing environmental conditions, changing patterns of trade, or may be an indication of "invasional meltdown." Our quantitative analyses could be extended to other taxa and ecosystems and offer a number of improvements over the qualitative risk assessments currently used by U.S. (and other) government agencies.     

Monthly skeletal extension rates of the hermatypic corals<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Montastraea annularis</Emphasis> and<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Montastraea faveolata</Emphasis>: biological and environmental controls

Monthly skeletal extension rates were measured in colonies of Montastraea annularis and M. faveolata growing at Mahahual and Chinchorro Bank, in the Mexican Caribbean. Temperature, light extinction coefficient (k_d), sedimentation rate, dissolved nutrients and wave energy were used as indicators of environmental conditions for coral growth. Zooxanthella density and mitotic index, nitrogen, phosphorous and protein in coral tissue, and living tissue thickness were measured during periods of high-density-band (HDB) and low-density-band (LDB) formation. To test their value as indirect measures of competition between zooxanthellae and host, as well as coral health and performance in both species, these biological parameters were also measured, during the HDB-formation period, in corals collected at La Blanquilla. This reef is located in the Gulf of Mexico, in an area of suboptimal environmental conditions for coral growth. M. faveolata had a significantly higher skeletal extension rate than M. annularis. Corals growing in Mahahual had significantly higher skeletal extension rate than those living in Chinchorro Bank. This is consistent with inshore–offshore gradients in growth rates observed by other authors in the same and other coral species. This is probably due to less favorable environmental conditions for coral growth in near shore Mahahual, where there is high hydraulic energy and high sedimentation rate. Contrary to observations of other authors, skeletal extension rate did not differ significantly between HDB- and LDB-formation periods for both species of Montastraea. Both species produced their HDB between July and September, when the seawater temperatures are seasonally higher in the Mexican Caribbean. Tissue thickness indicated that environmental conditions are more favorable for coral health and performance during the HDB-formation period. Mitotic index data support the idea that zooxanthellae have competitive advantages for carbon over the host during the LDB-formation period. So, corals, during the LDB-formation period, with less favorable environmental conditions for coral performance and at a disadvantage for carbon with zooxanthellae, add new skeleton with little or no opportunity for thickening the existing one. This results in an equally extended skeleton with lower density, and the stretching response of skeletal growth, proposed for M. annularis growing under harsher environmental conditions, also occurs during the LDB-formation period.Communicated by P.W. Sammarco, Chauvin     

CUSUM environmental monitoring in time and space

We consider the situation where there are n sampling sites in an area, with an environmental variable measured at some or all of the sites at m sample times. We assume that there is interest in knowing whether the environmental variable displays systematic changes over time at the sites. A cumulative sum type of analysis with associated randomization tests has been proposed before for this situation, when there is negligible correlation between the observations in different times at one site, and no correlation between the results at different sites. A modification that allows for serial correlation at the individual sites but with no correlation between sites has also been proposed before. In the present paper we discuss how the method can be modified further to allow for spatial correlation between the sites, by applying it only to a reduced set of sites that are far enough apart to give effectively independent results. Simulation results indicate that this strategy is effective providing that the level of spatial correlation is not too high.     

Here comes the sun: multimodal displays are associated with sunlight incidence

Conspicuousness of courtship signals in animals likely evolved to maximize mate attraction while minimizing predator detection. It is assumed, though largely unknown, that environmental and luminosity conditions affect the detectability of ornaments and motor displays and could thus strongly influence behavior. We combined visual models and behavioral observations to test whether the multimodal display of the blue-black grassquit (Volatinia jacarina) is influenced by environmental conditions, predicting that males should display more often in moments with high sunlight incidence upon their bodies. By displaying in such a context-dependent fashion, males would be able to maximize conspicuousness of their iridescent blue-black plumage and avoid displaying continuously, since the latter would involve higher energetic investment. We recorded the rates of both complete displays (leap with singing) as well as incomplete ones (singing while perched) for males during repeated 30-min focal observations in varying environmental situations in the field. We found that when bathed directly in sunlight, males increased their rates of displays, tending to exhibit more complete rather than incomplete displays in this condition and suggesting a potential trade-off between display types. Our results suggest that animals may adjust the timing and precise location of signal activity to improve the efficiency or likelihood of detection of some signal elements.     

Modeling seasonal course of carbon fluxes and evapotranspiration in response to low temperature and moisture in a boreal Scots pine ecosystem

Environmental conditions act above and below ground, and regulate carbon fluxes and evapotranspiration. The productivity of boreal forest ecosystems is strongly governed by low temperature and moisture conditions, but the understanding of various feedbacks between vegetation and environmental conditions is still unclear. In order to quantify the seasonal responses of vegetation to environmental factors, the seasonality of carbon and heat fluxes and the corresponding responses for temperature and moisture in air and soil were simulated by merging a process-based model (CoupModel) with detailed measurements representing various components of a forest ecosystem in Hyytiälä, southern Finland. The uncertainties in parameters, model assumptions, and measurements were identified by generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). Seasonal and diurnal courses of sensible and latent heat fluxes and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO₂ were successfully simulated for two contrasting years. Moreover, systematic increases in efficiency of photosynthesis, water uptake, and decomposition occurred from spring to summer, demonstrating the strong coupling between processes. Evapotranspiration and NEE flux both showed a strong response to soil temperature conditions via different direct and indirect ecosystem mechanisms. The rate of photosynthesis was strongly correlated with the corresponding water uptake response and the light use efficiency. With the present data and model assumptions, it was not possible to precisely distinguish the various regulating ecosystem mechanisms. Our approach proved robust for modeling the seasonal course of carbon fluxes and evapotranspiration by combining different independent measurements. It will be highly interesting to continue using long-term series data and to make additional tests of optional stomatal conductance models in order to improve our understanding of the boreal forest ecosystem in response to climate variability and environmental conditions.     

Effect of environmental flows on deep,anoxic pools

A series of field surveys were carried out on two permanent pools of the upper Glenelg River in SW Victoria, Australia. One was representative of the wider and deeper pools while the other was representative of the more-narrow and shallower pools. Both pools showed a typical seasonal cycle of warm, brackish, oxygen-poor, summer conditions and cool, oxygen-rich, low-salinity, winter conditions. The summer salinity increases were larger than expected, suggesting possible saline groundwater inflow from unidentified springs. Both pools contained anoxic water in their deeper sections but this was permanent only in the deeper pool. A simple model of the flushing rate of such anoxic pools subject to flows, such as environmental flow releases, was developed, based on an energy balance between the potential energy required to lift the anoxic layer and the kinetic energy derived from the river flow. The results were tested against and in agreement with the field measurements. The model also suggests that the anoxic layers are resilient to all but the largest environmental flows.     

Evaluating the causal basis of ecological success within the scleractinia: an integral projection model approach

Many tropical corals have declined in abundance in the last few decades, and evaluating the causal basis of these losses is critical to understanding how coral reefs will change in response to ongoing environmental challenges. Motivated by the likelihood that marine environments will become increasingly unfavorable for coral growth as they warm and become more acidic (i.e., ocean acidification), it is reasonable to evaluate whether specific phenotypic traits of the coral holobiont are associated with ecological success (or failure) under varying environmental conditions including those that are adverse to survival. Initially, we asked whether it was possible to identify corals that are resistant or sensitive to such conditions by compiling quantitative measures of their phenotypic traits determined through empirical studies, but we found only weak phenotypic discrimination between ecological winners and losers, or among taxa. To reconcile this outcome with ecological evidence demonstrating that coral taxa are functionally unequal, we looked beyond the notion that phenotypic homogeneity arose through limitations of empirical data. Instead, we examined the validity of contemporary means of categorizing corals based on ecological success. As an alternative means to distinguish among functional groups of corals, we present a demographic approach using integral projection models (IPMs) that link organismal performance to demographic outcomes, such as the rates of population growth and responses to environmental stress. We describe how IPMs can be applied to corals so that future research can evaluate within a quantitative framework the extent to which changes in physiological performance influence the demographic underpinnings of ecological performance.     

Trace Metals and Organochlorine Pesticide and PCB Residues in Mussels from England and Wales, 1978

As part of its work on marine environmental protection the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food's, Fisheries Laboratory at Burnham-on-Crouch, undertook a mussel survey in England and Wales in 1978. Trace metal, organochlorine pesticide and PCB residue concentrations were determined. The survey comprised about 80 samples covering the whole of England and Wales.

The results of the survey showed that in general the contaminant concentrations reflected the expected environmental distributions of the compounds of interest. Samples from areas with significant anthropogenic inputs such as industrial estuaries generally contained the highest concentrations and samples from areas influenced mainly by natural sources usually contained much lower contaminant concentrations, although there were some notable exceptions. The survey indicates the usefulness of a mussel watch approach to monitoring in England and Wales and the suggestion is made that if used on a local more intensive scale the technique should be able to identify in greater detail the likely sources of pollution.     

Fatty acids in fish scales

This study represents the first determination of lipids and fatty acids in fish scales. Scales collected from groups of Atlantic salmon reared on fish farms and in experimental tanks were analyzed by chromatography. The complete suite of fatty acids normally found in marine organisms was detected in the scales, with the following fatty acids dominating: 16:0, 18:0, 18:1n9, 20:5n3, 22:6n3 and 24:1n9. Scales contained relatively high levels of furan fatty acids, and the level of cholesterol (2.5–5 mg/g tissue) was much higher than the levels found in the edible parts of marine fishes (0.2–1 mg/g tissue). The fatty acid profile of scales was distinct between groups of salmon originating from different commercial strains reared on the same farm, between salmon groups originating from the same strains but reared at different farms, and between groups of fed and unfed salmon in experimental tanks. Together, these data indicate that the fatty acid composition of fish scales is dependent upon both environmental and genetic factors. The fatty acid composition of fish scales may be used in stock/population identification, for example identification of escaped Atlantic salmon to farm of origin.     

Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Aquatic Invasive Species

Abstract:  Different components of global environmental change are typically studied and managed independently, although there is a growing recognition that multiple drivers often interact in complex and nonadditive ways. We present a conceptual framework and empirical review of the interactive effects of climate change and invasive species in freshwater ecosystems. Climate change is expected to result in warmer water temperatures, shorter duration of ice cover, altered streamflow patterns, increased salinization, and increased demand for water storage and conveyance structures. These changes will alter the pathways by which non-native species enter aquatic systems by expanding fish-culture facilities and water gardens to new areas and by facilitating the spread of species during floods. Climate change will influence the likelihood of new species becoming established by eliminating cold temperatures or winter hypoxia that currently prevent survival and by increasing the construction of reservoirs that serve as hotspots for invasive species. Climate change will modify the ecological impacts of invasive species by enhancing their competitive and predatory effects on native species and by increasing the virulence of some diseases. As a result of climate change, new prevention and control strategies such as barrier construction or removal efforts may be needed to control invasive species that currently have only moderate effects or that are limited by seasonally unfavorable conditions. Although most researchers focus on how climate change will increase the number and severity of invasions, some invasive coldwater species may be unable to persist under the new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between climate change and invasive species that will influence how aquatic ecosystems and their biota will respond to novel environmental conditions.     

Alternative stable states and phase shifts in coral reefs under anthropogenic stress

Ecosystems with alternative stable states (ASS) may shift discontinuously from one stable state to another as environmental parameters cross a threshold. Reversal can then be difficult due to hysteresis effects. This contrasts with continuous state changes in response to changing environmental parameters, which are less difficult to reverse. Worldwide degradation of coral reefs, involving "phase shifts" from coral to algal dominance, highlights the pressing need to determine the likelihood of discontinuous phase shifts in coral reefs, in contrast to continuous shifts with no ASS. However, there is little evidence either for or against the existence of ASS for coral reefs. We use dynamic models to investigate the likelihood of continuous and discontinuous phase shifts in coral reefs subject to sustained environmental perturbation by fishing, nutrification, and sedimentation. Our modeling results suggest that coral reefs with or without anthropogenic stress can exhibit ASS, such that discontinuous phase shifts can occur. We also find evidence to support the view that high macroalgal growth rates and low grazing rates on macroalgae favor ASS in coral reefs. Further, our results suggest that the three stressors studied, either alone or in combination, can increase the likelihood of both continuous and discontinuous phase shifts by altering the competitive balance between corals and algae. However, in contrast to continuous phase shifts, we find that discontinuous shifts occur only in model coral reefs with parameter values near the extremes of their empirically determined ranges. This suggests that continuous shifts are more likely than discontinuous shifts in coral reefs. Our results also suggest that, for ecosystems in general, tackling multiple human stressors simultaneously maximizes resilience to phase shifts, ASS, and hysteresis, leading to improvements in ecosystem health and functioning.     

组织残留法在水生生物基准中的应用概述

水生生物基准已成为生态风险评价和水环境管理的主要参考依据,在水污染治理、控制和管理以及水生生物保护方面发挥着重要作用。环境和生物学参数对基于水体或沉积物等外暴露浓度的毒性阈值和环境基准存在影响,使其具有变异性和不确定性。而基于组织残留的毒性剂量指标可以减少毒性值的变异性以及不确定性,特别是对于生物累积性物质而言,在毒性效应及环境基准研究中存在显著优势。针对组织残留法在水生生物基准研究中的应用,对组织残留法的概念、优势、应用,以及组织残留基准的推导方法等几个方面进行了综述,并提出了组织残留法在应用中存在的关键问题及建议,旨在推动环境基准、生态风险评价理论和方法的研究,以及为水环境管理和污染防治提供技术支持。     

基于环境逸度模型的化学物质暴露与风险评估研究进展

工业化学品通过各种迁移转化过程后在环境区间中广泛分布,同时新化学品正被大量的生产并进入环境,使得对于化学品管控的需求和压力不断增加。基于这一背景,多国政府颁布了相应的政策法规对化学品进行管控。除了用相应的政策法规进行预先管控之外,使用基于逸度概念的多介质环境模型来表征化学品的行为与归趋是一个相对简单而有效的方法,不仅适用于环境中存在的现有化学品的暴露评估,也成为各国化学品管理中对新化学品的环境暴露进行预测的有力工具。本文综述逸度概念与方法、相关环境模型、建模过程、应用验证等方面的国内外研究进展,希望能够对我国化学品环境暴露评估与风险评估的模型构建、优化与方法应用提供信息和借鉴。     

Hierarchical linear mixed models in multi-stage sampling soil studies

The issue of variances of different soil variables prevailing at different sampling scales is addressed. This topic is relevant for soil science, agronomy and landscape ecology. In multi-stage sampling there are randomness components in each stage of sampling which can be taken into account by introducing random effects in analysis through the use of hierarchical linear mixed models (HLMM). Due to the nested sampling scheme, there are several hierarchical sub-models. The selection of the best model can be carried out through likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) or Wald tests, which are asymptotically equivalent under standard conditions. However, when the comparison leads to a restricted hypothesis of variance components, standard conditions are not maintained, which leads to more elaborated versions of LRTs. These versions are not disseminated among environmental scientists. The present study shows the modeling of soil data from a sampling where sites, fields within sites, transects within fields, and sampling points within transects were selected in order to take samples from different vegetation types (open and shade). For soil data, several sub-models were compared using Wald tests, classic LRTs and adjusted LRTs where the distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis is the Chi-square mixture of Chi-square distributions. The inclusion of random effects via HLMM and suggested by the latest version of LRT allowed us to detect effects of vegetation type on soil properties that were not detected under a classical ANOVA.     

Lipid content of some Caribbean corals in relation to depth and light

Three procedures for the extraction of coral lipids were compared and a rapid and effective method for future use is suggested. This method was used to measure the lipid content of the branching coral Porites porites (Pallas) and the massive corals Montastrea annularis (Ellis and Solander) and Siderastrea siderea (Ellis and Solander) during July and August 1991. P. porites and M. annularis were sampled on two fringing reefs, each characterised by different water quality affecting light transmission, and at depths of down to 30 m on a barrier reef on the west coast of the island. m. annularis contained, on average, 29% of dry weight as lipid, and there were no significant differences in lipid levels between corals sampled on either fringing reef at 3 and 6 m, or between fringing reefs and the barrier reef at 13, 20 or 30 m depth. Five samples were also taken from a single massive colony of S. siderea at 3 m on a fringing reef and at 13, 20 and 30 m depth on the barrier reef. Values for lipid ranged from 26 to 35% of dry tissue weight. P. porites from 3 and 6 m depth on both fringing reefs contained the same amount of lipid (11% of dry tissue weight). However, at 13 m depth on the barrier reef this coral contained significantly less lipid (8.5% of dry tissue weight). This difference may be attributable to a higher nutritional intake by P. porites on the fringing reefs.     

Do you not like Pigou, or do you not understand him? Tax aversion and revenue recycling in the lab

Tax-aversion reduces the likelihood that price rationing can be a politically viable tool for environmental protection. We examine the case of the classic Pigouvian tax to control a negative externality, and consider how recycling the revenues, labeling of the tax and information about its purpose affects the support for taxation. We test the support for taxation within a single-price market experiment, in which purchases by some buyers impose external costs on others. Observing behavior consistent with tax-aversion, we also find that recycling the revenues to more narrowly targeted groups seems to increase support for taxation. In the absence of narrow revenue recycling, labeling a Pigouvian instrument as a ‘tax’ may significantly lower the likelihood of voter support.     

Traits, not origin, explain impacts of plants on larval amphibians

Managing habitats for the benefit of native fauna is a priority for many government and private agencies. Often, these agencies view nonnative plants as a threat to wildlife habitat, and they seek to control or eradicate nonnative plant populations. However, little is known about how nonnative plant invasions impact native fauna, and it is unclear whether managing these plants actually improves habitat quality for resident animals. Here, we compared the impacts of native and nonnative wetland plants on three species of native larval amphibians; we also examined whether plant traits explain the observed impacts. Specifically, we measured plant litter quality (carbon : nitrogen : phosphorus ratios, and percentages of lignin and soluble phenolics) and biomass, along with a suite of environmental conditions known to affect larval amphibians (hydroperiod, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and pH). Hydroperiod and plant traits, notably soluble phenolics, litter C:N ratio, and litter N:P ratio, impacted the likelihood that animals metamorphosed, the number of animals that metamorphosed, and the length of larval period. As hydroperiod decreased, the likelihood that amphibians achieved metamorphosis and the percentage of tadpoles that successfully metamorphosed also decreased. Increases in soluble phenolics, litter N:P ratio, and litter C:N ratio decreased the likelihood that tadpoles achieved metamorphosis, decreased the percentage of tadpoles metamorphosing, decreased metamorph production (total metamorph biomass), and increased the length of larval period. Interestingly, we found no difference in metamorphosis rates and length of larval period between habitats dominated by native and nonnative plants. Our findings have important implications for habitat management. We suggest that to improve habitats for native fauna, managers should focus on assembling a plant community with desirable traits rather than focusing only on plant origin.