Scale effect of flame instability mechanisms on propagation velocity

Blast pressure is a major source of the damage caused by an accidental gas explosion. Its magnitude depends on the thermal expansion rate and hence on the flame propagation velocity. This paper discusses the influence of two flame instability mechanisms, i.e., diffusive-thermal and hydrodynamic instabilities, on flame propagation velocity with an emphasis on their scale effects as the flame continuously increases its size during an explosion. The Sivashinsky equation is numerically solved to simulate flame propagation behaviors. It is found that flame propagation velocity, V_f, is independent of flame size under the influence of diffusive-thermal instability, whereas V_f increases with flame size under the influence of hydrodynamic instability. The latter result is understood as a result of flame’s fractal structure. Fractal dimension is determined from the dependency of V_f on flame size, and the obtained fractal dimension is close to the known experimental value.     

Handling data uncertainties in event tree analysis

Event tree analysis (ETA) is an established risk analysis technique to assess likelihood (in a probabilistic context) of an accident. The objective data available to estimate the likelihood is often missing (or sparse), and even if available, is subject to incompleteness (partial ignorance) and imprecision (vagueness). Without addressing incompleteness and imprecision in the available data, ETA and subsequent risk analysis give a false impression of precision and correctness that undermines the overall credibility of the process. This paper explores two approaches to address data uncertainties, namely, fuzzy sets and evidence theory, and compares the results with Monte Carlo simulations. A fuzzy-based approach is used for handling imprecision and subjectivity, whereas evidence theory is used for handling inconsistent, incomplete and conflicting data. Application of these approaches in ETA is demonstrated using the example of an LPG release near a processing facility.     

Attachment,decay, and social network

To study decay in attachment to an organization, I analyse data on women who obtained an MBA from the University of Chicago's Graduate School of Business (GSB). I measure attachment in terms of network embedding: an alumna is attached to the GSB to the extent that people close to her graduated from the GSB. Behavioral data corroborate the network data in that alumnae measured to be more attached are more likely to have joined an alumni club and made a financial contribution to the school. The hypothesis is that alumnae attachment will decay over time, more slowly when the school is deeply embedded in an alumna's network, more quickly when disruptive events compete for the alumna's time and energy. As expected, attachment declines across the years after graduation (linearly for the first 20 years to about half its initial level), and decay is inhibited when connections with GSB graduates are embedded in stable relations of family, work, or long-term friendship. Decay is remarkably robust to events after graduation (which account for only 2 per cent of explained variance in attachment). In other words, an alumna's attachment today was largely determined while she was in school. The results should be of practical value to people who design programmes to build personal attachment to organizations, and of theoretical interest to scholars who study such connections. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Motorcyclist perception response time in stopping sight distance situations

One of the most effective engineering measures is the provision of an exclusive motorcycle lane that separates motorcycles from other mixed traffic to reduce traffic congestion and motorcycle crashes. Even though the existing exclusive motorcycle lanes in Malaysia reduced the incidents of motorcycle crashes with other vehicles, the design of this special motorcycle lane was based on a cross reference between a bicycle track and a highway. Thus, a suitable design guide is yet to be developed for the geometrical design of a proper and safer exclusive motorcycle lane. Safe stopping sight distance (SSD) has been recognized as a criterion for road design and should be taken into account. Motorcyclist perception response time (PRT) is the time from detection object until the rider reduces motorcycle speed in braking action is an essential component of motorcycle SSD. Two road experiments were conducted to obtain empirical values of motorcycle PRT to expected and unexpected objects. In the expected condition, 89 motorcyclists applied brake as quickly as possible following activation of a light beside the road. In the unexpected condition, 16 riders responded by braking in response to an obstacle that appeared suddenly in their lane. The mean PRT to expected and unexpected object is 0.71 s and 1.25 s respectively. The 85th percentile PRT to unexpected object is 2.12 s. This study found that most riders are capable of responding to an unexpected object along the roadway in 2.5 s or less. Therefore, PRT of 2.5 s is an appropriate value for motorcycle lane geometric design.     

HRA in China: Model and data

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is generally viewed as quite an important part in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). In this paper, a THERP + HCR HRA model is presented to model the operators’ post-accident behavior in Chinese nuclear power plants. The paper shows how the model is structured and how to consider and acquire the corresponding data, including HCR data modification and HRA event tree data. A case study is presented to make an illustration.     

Development of a field well head safety system for use with radiation generating devices

This paper discusses the design, testing and application of a new interlock system for field use with neutron generating bore hole probes at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. Such probes produce 14 MeV neutrons at a yield up to 3×10⁸ neutrons/s, and present an ionizing radiation hazard to personnel particularly when operated in an unshielded configuration. This interlock system prevents personnel from being exposed to the relatively high radiation fields caused by an unsafe condition when an operating neutron generator probe is withdrawn from a well in the ground. An electromechanical interlock prototype system has been designed, built and tested, and has been found to be effective at preventing this event. The design is simple, is effective in mitigating the hazard, and can be installed in minutes. The system could be modified to interlock radiation-generating devices other than neutron generators that are used in similar environments.     

Improving the effectiveness of warnings by increasing the appropriateness of their information content: some hypotheses about human compliance

The ways that warnings are administered vary greatly. A warning may come as a message broadcast on the radio about severe weather, as a flashing light in the cockpit of an airplane, or as an audible smoke alarm. Typically, warnings provide an auditory or visual signal to assist in the detection of an anticipated stimulus. However, warnings tend to operate in an all or none mode: either the warning is present, or it is not. Consequently, the information they provide is limited. If warnings are provided too often, their information content becomes even lower and frequent false alarms render them ineffective because of the “cry-wolf” effect. On the other hand, if warnings are not administered frequently enough, they result in too many potentially costly misses. In this conceptual paper, it is argued that the effectiveness of warnings might be significantly improved if warnings are made more “intelligent” by providing information about the likelihood of the occurrence of the stimulus. Several representative cases are discussed and analyzed in order to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed methods.     

Whether conversion and weather matter to roundabout safety

IntroductionRoundabouts, as a form of intersection traffic control, are being constructed increasingly because of their promise to improve both efficiency and safety. However, roundabout performance varies from one context to another; and information on their performance during inclement weather is limited.MethodsTo evaluate the safety effects of converting signal-controlled intersections to modern roundabouts in a region that historically was unfamiliar with this type of traffic control, an empirical Bayes approach was used to analyze. Second, to examine the potential effects of rainfall on roundabout safety, a matched-pair approach was used to compare risk estimates of collision occurrence at roundabouts and signalized intersections under inclement weather conditions.ResultsRoundabout installation is shown as an effective safety intervention for serious collisions since conversion from signalized intersections to roundabouts translates into an overall 20% reduction in the occurrence of injury/fatal collisions. However, roundabouts witnessed more property-damage collisions than what would have been expected had the conversion not occurred. With respect to weather, there is no evidence of a statistically significant increase in crashes on days with rainfall relative to good weather conditions for roundabouts, whereas there is evidence of such an increase in crash risk estimated to be 4% to 22% for signalized intersections.ConclusionsWhile injury collisions are consistently found to be lower at intersections that have been converted from signalized intersections to roundabouts, the same is not always that case for property-damage collisions, suggesting that drivers need time to adjust. In terms of weather, the evidence in this paper shows that roundabouts show less sensitivity to rainy conditions than signalized intersections.Practical applicationsThe trade-offs between design, operation, and safety should be considered carefully when planning a new roundabout. More research is required on the specific problems users experience with roundabouts and the effectiveness of public education programs.     

Preliminary study of ballistic impact on an industrial tank: Projectile velocity decay

Since the events of September 11, 2001, the possibility of an intentional act targeting the chemical process industry has become realistic. It is, therefore, a great concern to be able to predict the immediate consequences of such an act. This study is intended to improve our knowledge about the sequence of events that occurs when a high-speed bullet (>1000 m s⁻¹) penetrates a vessel filled with toxic liquid. We find that, prior to liquid ejection, several well-defined phases occur, including the phenomenon known as the “hydraulic ram.” This paper focuses on projectile–target interactions and explains how the decay of projectile velocity is related to the initial conditions of the target.     

Epistemic uncertainty in fault tree analysis approached by the evidence theory

Process plants may be subjected to dangerous events. Different methodologies are nowadays employed to identify failure events, that can lead to severe accidents, and to assess the relative probability of occurrence. As for rare events reliability data are generally poor, leading to a partial or incomplete knowledge of the process, the classical probabilistic approach can not be successfully used. Such an uncertainty, called epistemic uncertainty, can be treated by means of different methodologies, alternative to the probabilistic one. In this work, the Evidence Theory or Dempster–Shafer theory (DST) is proposed to deal with this kind of uncertainty. In particular, the classical Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is considered when input data are supplied by experts in an interval form. The practical problem of information acquisition from experts is discussed and two realistic scenarios are proposed. A methodology to propagate such an uncertainty through the fault tree up to the Top Event (TE) and to determine the belief measures is supplied. The analysis is illustrated by means of two simple series/parallel systems. An application to a real industrial safety system is finally performed and discussed.     

The politics of employment liability

Employment liability is an important check and balance against employee harm at work. In practice, however, an inadvertent consequence of employment liability is a potential shift in power from organizations to employees that affects subsequent managerial decision making. In this Incubator, we discuss behavioral and attitudinal ramifications of employment liability at work. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction of distance to maximum intensity of turbulence generated by grid plate obstacles in explosion-induced flows

The interaction of unburnt gas flow induced in an explosion with an obstacle results in the production of turbulence downstream of the obstacle and the acceleration of the flame when it reaches this turbulence. Currently, there are inadequate experimental measurements of these turbulent flows in gas explosions due to transient nature of explosion flows and the connected harsh conditions. Hence, majority of measurements of turbulent properties downstream of obstacles are done using steady-state flows rather than transient flows. Consequently, an empirical based correlation to predict distance to maximum intensity of turbulence downstream of an obstacle in an explosion-induced flow using the available steady state experiments was developed in this study. The correlation would serve as a prerequisite for determining an optimum spacing between obstacles thereby determining worst case gas explosions overpressure and flame speeds. Using a limited experimental work on systematic study of obstacle spacing, the correlation was validated against 13 different test conditions. A ratio of the optimum spacing from the experiment, x_exp to the predicted optimum spacing, x_pred for all the tests was between 2-4. This shows that a factor of three higher than the x_pred would be required to produce optimum obstacle spacing that will lead to maximum explosion severity. In planning the layout of new installations, it is appropriate to identify the relevant worst case obstacle separation in order to avoid it. In assessing the risk to existing installations and taking appropriate mitigation measures it is important to evaluate such risk on the basis of a clear understanding of the effects of separation distance and congestion. It is therefore suggested that the various new correlations obtained from this work be subjected to further rigorous validation from relevant experimental data prior to been applied as design tools.     

The limits to risk aversion: Part 1. The point of indiscriminate decision

The paper uses utility theory to investigate how much should be spent to avert all costs from an industrial accident apart from direct human harm. These “environmental costs” will include those of evacuation, clean-up and business disruption. Assuming the organisation responsible will need to pay such costs, the difference between its expected utility with and without an environmental protection system constitutes a rational decision variable for whether or not the scheme should be installed. The value of utility is dependent on the coefficient of relative risk aversion, “risk-aversion” for short. A model of an organisation's decision-making process has been developed using the ABCD model, linking the organisation's assets, A, the cost of the protection scheme, B, the cost of consequences, C, and the expected utility difference with and without the scheme, D. Increasing the organisation's risk-aversion parameter will tend to make it less reluctant to invest in a protection system, but can bring about such investment only when the scheme is relatively close to financial break-even. For such borderline schemes, the amount the organisation is prepared to spend on the protection system will rise as the risk-aversion increases. The ratio of this sum to the break-even cost is named the “Limiting Risk Multiplier”, the maximum value of which is governed by the maximum feasible value of risk-aversion. However, the mathematical model shows that increasing the risk-aversion will reduce the clarity of decision making generally. Although the reluctance to invest in a protection scheme may change sign and turn into a positive desire to invest as the risk-aversion increases, the absolute value of this parameter is a continuously decreasing function of risk-aversion, tending asymptotically to zero. As a result, discrimination will gradually diminish, being lost altogether at the “point of indiscriminate decision”. Here the decision maker will be able to distinguish neither advantage in installing the scheme nor disadvantage in installing its inverse. There is a close correspondence between this mathematically predicted state and that of panic, where an individual has become so fearful that his actions become random. The point of indiscriminate decision provides a natural upper bound for the value of risk-aversion. This bounds the Limiting Risk Multiplier in turn, and so sets an objective upper limit on the amount that it is rational to spend on an environmental protection system.     

Driver’s mental workload prediction model based on physiological indices

Developing an early warning model to predict the driver’s mental workload (MWL) is critical and helpful, especially for new or less experienced drivers. The present study aims to investigate the correlation between new drivers’ MWL and their work performance, regarding the number of errors. Additionally, the group method of data handling is used to establish the driver’s MWL predictive model based on subjective rating (NASA task load index [NASA-TLX]) and six physiological indices. The results indicate that the NASA-TLX and the number of errors are positively correlated, and the predictive model shows the validity of the proposed model with an R² value of 0.745. The proposed model is expected to provide a reference value for the new drivers of their MWL by providing the physiological indices, and the driving lesson plans can be proposed to sustain an appropriate MWL as well as improve the driver’s work performance.     

Application of fire suppression materials on suppression of LNG pool fires

An LNG pool fire is considered one of the main hazards of LNG, together with LNG vapor dispersion. Suppression methods are designed to reduce the hazard exclusion zones, distance to reach radiant heat of 5 kW/m², when an LNG pool fire is considered. For LNG vapor dispersion, the hazard exclusion zone is the distance travelled by the LNG vapor to reach a concentration of 2.5% v/v (half of the LNG lower flammability limit).Warming the LNG vapor to reach positive buoyancy faster is one way to suppress LNG vapor dispersion and reduce evaporation rate (thus fire size and its associated radiant heat) and that is the main objective in LNG pool fire suppression. Based on previous research, the use of high expansion foam has been regarded as the primary method in suppressing LNG pool fires. However, in 1980, another method was introduced as an alternative pool fire suppression system, Foamglas^®. The research concluded that 90% of the radiant heat was successfully reduced. Currently-called Foamglas^® pool fire suppression (Foamglas^® PFS) is a passive mitigation system and is deployed after the leak occurs. Foamglas^® PFS is non-flammable, and has a density one-third of the density of LNG, thus floats when an LNG pool is formed.This paper describes the study and confirmation of Foamglas^®PFS effectiveness in suppressing LNG pool fires. In addition, while Foamglas^® PFS is not expected to suppress LNG vapor dispersion, further investigation was conducted to study the effect of Foamglas^®PFS on LNG vapor dispersion. An LNG field experiment was conducted at Brayton Fire Field. The experimental development, procedures, results and findings are detailed in this paper.     

Risk analysis system for the transport of hazardous materials

IntroductionIn this paper, a literature study on risk analysis systems for the transport of hazardous materials was conducted.ResultsThe insights that resulted from this literature review have led to the development of a refined approach to map the risk of hazmat transport in Flanders based on historical accident data. The proposed framework allows setting up an overall risk map for hazmat transport by different transport modes. Additionally, a methodology to calculate a local accident risk, which takes local infrastructure parameters and accident data into account, is being introduced. In the presented framework one of the general principles is that the risk of a catastrophic hazmat incident can be divided into two parts, which can both be validated on the basis of accident data: (a) the calculation of the general probability of the occurrence of an accident based on international accident data of transport of hazardous materials – this is the basis for the global risk map, and (b) the calculation of the local probability of the occurrence of an accident based on accident data and infrastructure parameters of the complete available freight transport in Flanders – this is the basis for the local risk map. The ratio between these two results in a locality parameter, which represents the local specific circumstances that can lead to an accident.ConclusionsThis evaluation framework makes it possible to estimate the risks of hazmat transport along a specific route for transport by road, rail, inland navigation and even pipelines.     

Exploring pedestrian injury severities at pedestrian-vehicle crash hotspots with an annual upward trend: A spatiotemporal analysis with latent class random parameter approach

Introduction: With the increasing trend of pedestrian deaths among all traffic fatalities in the past decade, there is an urgent need for identifying and investigating hotspots of pedestrian-vehicle crashes with an upward trend. Method: To identify pedestrian-vehicle crash locations with aggregated spatial pattern and upward temporal pattern (i.e., hotspots with an upward trend), this paper first uses the average nearest neighbor and the spatial autocorrelation tests to determine the grid distance and the neighborhood distance for hotspots, respectively. Then, the spatiotemporal analyses with the Getis-Ord Gi* index and the Mann-Kendall trend test are utilized to identify the pedestrian-vehicle crash hotspots with an annual upward trend in North Carolina from 2007 to 2018. Considering the unobserved heterogeneity of the crash data, a latent class model with random parameters within class is proposed to identify specific contributing factors for each class and explore the heterogeneity within classes. Significant factors of the pedestrian, vehicle, crash type, locality, roadway, environment, time, and traffic control characteristics are detected and analyzed based on the marginal effects. Results: The heterogeneous results between classes and the random parameter variables detected within classes further indicate the superiority of latent class random parameter model. Practical Applications: This paper provides a framework for researchers and engineers to identify crash hotspots considering spatiotemporal patterns and contribution factors to crashes considering unobserved heterogeneity. Also, the result provides specific guidance to developing countermeasures for mitigating pedestrian-injury at pedestrian-vehicle crash hotspots with an upward trend.     

Analyzing system safety and risks under uncertainty using a bow-tie diagram: An innovative approach

A bow-tie diagram combines a fault tree and an event tree to represent the risk control parameters on a common platform for mitigating an accident. Quantitative analysis of a bow-tie is still a major challenge since it follows the traditional assumptions of fault and event tree analyses. The assumptions consider the crisp probabilities and “independent” relationships for the input events. The crisp probabilities for the input events are often missing or hard to come by, which introduces data uncertainty. The assumption of “independence” introduces model uncertainty. Elicitation of expert's knowledge for the missing data may provide an alternative; however, such knowledge incorporates uncertainties and may undermine the credibility of risk analysis.This paper attempts to accommodate the expert's knowledge to overcome missing data and incorporate fuzzy set and evidence theory to assess the uncertainties. Further, dependency coefficient-based fuzzy and evidence theory approaches have been developed to address the model uncertainty for bow-tie analysis. In addition, a method of sensitivity analysis is proposed to predict the most contributing input events in the bow-tie analysis. To demonstrate the utility of the approaches in industrial application, a bow-tie diagram of the BP Texas City accident is developed and analyzed.     

Measurement of turbulent burning velocities by means of the open tube method

Fraunhofer-ICT is one of the participants of EU-project DESC. The final objective of DESC is the development of a numerical code to be able to support a safe design of dust handling facilities. Fh-ICT designed an apparatus based on the so called open tube method (Andrews, G. E., & Bradley, D. (1972). Determination of burning velocities: a critical review. Combustion and Flame 18, 133–153) by means of which the relation between turbulent burning velocity and turbulence intensity in the range of 1 m/s<u′<3 m/s can be determined. This knowledge is important as an input for the code. A special feature of the experiment is the measurement of turbulence intensity in situ with sensors of the Pitot-type.     

The typology for allocations of societal risk and safety management tasks at the local governmental level – Framing the current directions in Sweden

The starting point for this article is the need to develop empirical insights about contemporary societal risk and safety management practice and executive structures. In order to facilitate insights about societal risk and safety management in a Scandinavian welfare context we use Sweden and its local governmental level (municipal) as an empirical frame in this paper. The aim for this article is to analyse how a variety of risk and safety management tasks are divided within the Swedish municipalities. The objectives are to frame the current directions for internal allocations of risk and safety issues by providing an empirically based executive typology and to contemplate the implications and future research needs that arise from that management pattern.The analysis is based on statistical analysis of information from a web-survey with chief officials (n = 1283) with responsibilities for different municipal functions and sectors. In this study the responses to one of the survey questions are used for statistical analysis. The analyzed question focused on the degree that the respondents estimated that their administrative sector or function handled a selection of risk and safety management assignments (n = 45). A factor analysis was applied to identify patterns in the dataset. The analysis resulted in an eight factor solution with a high degree of explained variance (74.3%). The results provide an elementary contribution to the understanding of the current societal risks and safety management directions.