Working conditions,psychological/physical symptoms and occupational accidents. Bayesian network models

Each day thousands of workers suffer occupational accidents of varying degrees of severity. Accidents at work render workers incapable of carrying out their day to day activities, either temporarily or permanently, and they also have detrimental effects on family life, the company, and the general public. In order to reduce the occupational accident rate, it is necessary to determine the causes of those accidents. Although there are many different types of accidents, they generally stem from poor working conditions. The purpose of this study was to analyze the influence of working conditions on occupational accidents from data gathered in the VI National Survey of Working Conditions (VI NSWCs) in 2007. This survey utilized a random sample of the active population of Spain. The sample comprised 11,054 people (5917 males and 5137 females). In order to carry out the study, a probabilistic model was built using Bayesian networks. The model included the following variables: hygiene conditions, ergonomic conditions, job demands, physical symptoms, psychological symptoms, and occupational accidents. The study demonstrated that there were strong relationships between hygiene conditions and occupational accidents; it has been shown that poor hygienic conditions duplicate the probability of accident. Physical symptoms increased almost 50% due to poor ergonomic conditions. And finally, high job demands almost duplicated the psychological symptoms. The investigation also showed a high degree of interdependence between physical and psychological symptomatologies and the relationship between these and occupational accidents.     

Providing the numerical context for British casualty reduction targets

The first national target for reducing road accident casualties in Great Britain was set in 1987, the target year being 2000. As the year 2000 approached, preparations were made for setting a subsequent target, the target year being 2010. A major part of the preparation consisted of forecasting the number of casualties that might be expected in 2010, conditional upon predictions about how the volume of road travel by the various transport modes might change and the type of new road safety measures that the Government might introduce. The forecasts provided the numerical context for the casualty reduction target that the Government announced in March 2000.This paper summarises the statistical analyses of accident data from 1983 to 1998 upon which the forecasts were based, and compares the approach with alternatives that have been adopted elsewhere. It also describes how progress towards the target has been monitored annually, allowing the Government to judge whether additional efforts might be needed to achieve the target. This examination of the actual data from 1999 to 2007 shows how far the original forecasts have proved to be successful.The improvement of car secondary safety over the past 15 years has probably been the development that has had the most significant effect on the national casualty total. A statistical model is used to quantify this effect by analysis of accident data, and the results of the most recent analyses are included.     

Assessment of four turbulence models in simulation of large-scale pool fires in the presence of wind using computational fluid dynamics (CFD)

Pool fires are the most common of all process industry accidents. Pool fires often trigger explosions which may result in more fires, causing huge losses of life and property. Since both the risk and the frequency of occurrence of pool fires are high, it is necessary to model the risks associated with pool fires so as to correctly predict the behavior of such fires.Among the parameters which determine the overall structure of a pool fire, the most important is turbulence. It determines the extent of interaction of various parameters, including combustion, wind velocity, and entrainment of the ambient air. Of the various approaches capable of modeling the turbulence associated with pool fires, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has emerged as the most preferred due to its ability to enable closer approximation of the underlying physical phenomena.A review of the state of the art reveals that although various turbulence models exist for the simulation of pool fire no single study has compared the performance of various turbulence models in modeling pool fires. To cover this knowledge-gap an attempt has been made to employ CFD in the assessment of pool fires and find the turbulence model which is able to simulate pool fires most faithfully. The performance of the standard k–? model, renormalization group (RNG) k–? model, realizable k–? model and standard k–ω model were studied for simulating the experiments conducted earlier by Chatris et al. (2001) and Casal (2013). The results reveal that the standard k–? model enabled the closest CFD simulation of the experimental results.     

具有水上事故特征的目标P-中位应急救助选址优化及方法

科学地进行应急救助基地选址是提高应急资源利用效率和应急服务水平的关键,以南京海事辖区为例,对事故多发水域应急救助基地的布局规划和覆盖分配进行了优化研究。总结了辖区水域中影响应急救助站点选址的因素,有辖区事故重点水域分布、桥区水域、锚地3个因素,运用DBSCAN算法确定了辖区事故重点水域的分布情况,结合桥区水域、锚地影响因素,引入安全风险权重系数,利用P-中位建立了应急救助站点选址数学模型。构建的选址模型目标函数在满足设置的约束条件下取最小值,即实现了救援用时最少或救援距离最短。最后运用免疫算法求解选址优化数学模型。经过计算,在考虑时效性的基础上,较好地实现了应急救助对辖区水域的全覆盖和重点水域的重点覆盖。     

基于大气退化物理模型恢复算法的露天矿车辆助驾技术

露天矿汽车运输是大型露天矿主要运输方式之一,是影响露天矿生产能力和经济效益的关键因素。本文分析了露天矿车辆运输事故原因,针对露天矿卡车运输道路环境特点与天气因素,通过安装于车体外的高清CCD摄像设备,来消除卡车盲区的安全隐患,并基于大气退化物理模型恢复算法,实现了在雨、雪、雾、灰尘等恶劣天气条件下的露天矿车辆运输道路环境探测影像增强技术,提高露天矿卡车司机的可视距离,降低事故发生率。本文的研究对于提高露天矿车辆运输安全,降低露天矿事故发生率具有重要意义,并以某大型露天煤矿为应用实例验证了其可行性。     

An Evaluation of the NIOSH Lifting Equation: A Psychophysical and Biomechanical Investigation

Using the results of psychophysical and biomechanical experiments, NIOSH (National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health) Recommended Weight Limit (RWL), the Lifting Index (LI), the form of the asymmetry multiplier, and the criterion for compression force were investigated. Analysis of the results indicated a significant difference between the NIOSH RWL and the reported Maximum Acceptable Weight of Lift (MAWL). Contrary to the NIOSH lifting equation, the form of the asymmetry multiplier was found to be non-linear. The overall average of peak compression force on the L5/S1 was 3685 N. Fifty-eight percent of all compression forces reported in the biomechanical experiment were found to exceed the suggested 3400 N set by NIOSH guidelines. These results support previous research findings on the validity of NIOSH guidelines.     

蒙德安全评价法的改进及其计算机实现

蒙德安全评价法是一种广泛应用于石化领域的安全评价方法,相对于其它指数型安全评价方法具有评价全面、实施便捷的特点,在工程中被大量应用。但是蒙德法有它难以克服的缺点：定量参数查找困难、定性参数估计困难、手动计算繁琐、分析流程不确定。本文针对这些问题提出了一种自动化的蒙德评价方法,克服了上述缺点,具有分析简便、快速、准确的特点。并开发完成了基于此方法的软件,经过案例测试表明此方法具有实用性,在工程应用中具有实际价值。     

海河干流流域暴雨径流非点源污染负荷解析与控制策略

随着点源污染逐渐得到有效控制,非点源污染对海河干流流域水环境污染的贡献日益增大,对其污染负荷进行科学测算成为海河干流水质达标方案制订的重要前提。基于GIS技术,通过土地利用类型划分,利用PLOAD模型对海河干流的暴雨径流非点源污染负荷进行了计算。结果表明,海河干流流域建设用地的比例依海河流向自上而下逐渐递减,而涉农用地逐渐增加,城区地表径流与农业面源污染分别是上、下游地区重要的非点源污染负荷来源。关于流域的暴雨径流非点源污染负荷,CODCr为15 619.29 t/a,NH3-N为369.16 t/a,TN为851.20 t/a,TP为250.29 t/a。为改善海河干流水质,非点源污染控制应纳入流域的污染物总量控制计划中,与点源污染一起参与环境容量的分配与控制。     

Prediction models for the flash point of pure components

The flash point for a liquid is defined as the lowest temperature at which its vapor forms a spontaneously ignitable mixture when brought in contact with air. Having a good estimation of the flash point temperature at normal conditions is relevant because it is one of the main properties used to characterize fire and explosion hazards for liquids. Most of predictive correlations in the literature include a physical effect by including the normal boiling temperature in their formulation. To achieve combustion, sufficient evaporation is required and then a part of the liberated energy from the combustion is used to support the evaporation. Thus the evaporation energy and a chemical effect given by the heat of reaction are incorporated in this work. It is firstly verified that the relation between the flash point temperature and the normal boiling temperature tends to be a constant. Thus a heuristic approach based on 611 chemical species of diverse families indicates that this relation is around 0.75. The dispersion of the error has been reduced by using two proposed correlations where both physical and chemical properties are included in the model. In particular, the second equation is based on the group contributions method, which has been developed for alkanes. This method is in fact a combination of the group contributions method and the first model to overcome the difficulties in predicting isomeric differences.     

Influence of trunk muscle activity and stability in front and back holding

Purpose. A tandem carrying style is often used in the workplace, but carrying approaches are different for two people because of the holding load in the tandem posture. To understand these carrying styles, this study aimed to investigate the patterns of muscle activity and stability of the trunk influenced by front and back holding of a heavy load. Methods. Electromyography data of eight trunk and two hip muscles, as well as displacements of the trunk, were recorded for analysis while subjects stood statically holding a handle in the front and back of the body with and without load. Results. Without load, muscle activities during front holding mirrored those during back holding. With load, greater muscle activities were observed in the dorsal muscles of the trunk and lesser activities were noted in the ventral muscles in the two holding styles. More frequencies of trunk oscillations occurred in front holding with and without load. Conclusions. The results revealed that back holding of load created more stability of the upper body, whereas front holding resulted in more instability of the trunk.     

Accident models and organisational factors in air transport: The need for multi-method models

Event analysis is needed to learn and improve safety. In air transport, ‘occurrences’ are routinely reported by pilots and air traffic controllers, and in-flight data analysis systems automatically monitor aircraft system behaviour and capture parameter threshold exceedances. The safety analyst of a large airline has to analyse dozens of occurrences each day. To understand why events happened the analyst has to go beyond the given information and make causal inferences. The analyst is able to do this for causal factors closely related in time and space to the event itself by applying individual knowledge and expertise. But typically the result of the analysis is ad hoc reaction to each individual event. Systematic analysis is needed to find areas of improvement for factors that are further removed from the event (latent factors). New tools are needed to help the analyst in this respect. There is a need for models that represent possible causal event sequence scenarios that include technical, human, and organisational factors. Building such models is a huge task, and requires the combination of detailed knowledge of all aspects of the system, processing huge amounts of data, a substantial mathematical background and the ability to capture this all in a user friendly software tool to be used by the safety analysts. Experience in Causal Modelling of Air Transportation System (CATS) in the Netherlands and similar projects in FAA and Eurocontrol in aviation shows that this is indeed a formidable task, but it has to be done to further improve safety.     

通信铁塔影响建筑物防雷安全计算公式之合理性探讨

以一个发生过严重雷灾事故的屋顶通信铁塔为例,分别利用国际电信联盟ITU-K56《无线通讯基站的雷电防护》和国际电报电话咨询委员会CCITT《防雷手册》中的公式计算出建筑物安装了通信铁塔后的年预计雷击次数,并将之与未安装通信铁塔时的年预计雷击次数进行对比,两者的计算结果存在显著差异。基于雷击条件相似原则,参照移动公司通信铁塔每年遭受雷击次数的实际统计数据,对这两个计算公式的合理性问题进行了探讨。研究结果表明,CCITT《防雷手册》中的计算公式更具合理性,计算结果更加接近实际值,计算方法更能准确地评估铁塔对所在区域的建筑物及电子电气设备的防雷安全所造成的影响。     

A protocol for the evaluation of LNG vapour dispersion models

The international transport, storage and utilisation of LNG is growing rapidly. Whilst the LNG industry has an excellent safety record, the possibility of an accidental release cannot be discounted. Internationally-accepted standards, such as the 59A Standard of the US National Fire Protection Association (NFPA), provide direction on the assessment of LNG spill hazards and hazard range criteria which must be met. Modelling of the atmospheric dispersion of LNG vapour from accidental spills is one of the critical steps in such hazard analyses. This paper describes a comprehensive evaluation protocol devised for the 59A Standard, specifically for the assessment of LNG vapour dispersion models. The evaluation protocol is based on methodologies developed in previous European Union studies, which have been extended, significantly adapted and tailored to the specific requirements of the evaluation of models for the dispersion of LNG vapour. The protocol comprises scientific evaluation of the numerical and physical basis of models for the dispersion of LNG vapour, model verification, and validation; resulting in a comprehensive model evaluation report which includes qualitative and quantitative criteria for model acceptance. A supporting suite of validation data, and guidance on the use of this data, has also been produced. The NFPA 59A (2009) standard states that LNG vapour dispersion models are acceptable for use if they have been evaluated in accordance with this protocol.     

Experimental and computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulation of leak shapes and sizes for gas pipeline

In this paper, a parametric study has been carried out to predict the exit velocity of air through the leakage in the pipe with the help of CFD software ANSYS Fluent. The effect of air pressure in the pipe and the shape of leakage have been studied. Further experiments were also carried out to determine the exit velocity for the defined shape of leakage by varying the air pressure in the pipe. Experimentally, the velocity at a distance of 8 cm from the location of a leak in the horizontal plane was obtained with the help of differential pressure transducers. Using the experimental results, the computational results were validated. The results of the parametric simulation study showed that even for a pressure of 2 bars the velocity profile at the leak location indicates the supersonic state where the Mach number is greater than 1. The study is useful because it may be used as a foundation for risk assessment and safety management in the case of flammable gas leaks through gas pipes.     

Influence of ATD versus PMHS reference sensor inputs on computational brain response in frontal impacts to advanced combat helmet (ACH)

ABSTRACT

Objective: This study analyzed the influence of reference sensor inputs from anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs) versus postmortem human subjects (PMHSs) on simulations of frontal blunt impacts to the advanced combat helmet (ACH).

Methods: A rigid-arm pendulum was used to generate frontal impacts to ACHs mounted on ATDs and PMHS. An appropriately sized ACH was selected according to standard fitting guidelines. The National Operating Committee on Standards for Athletic Equipment (NOCSAE) head was selected for ATD tests due to shape features that enabled a realistic helmet fit. A custom procedure was used to mount a reference sensor internally near the center of gravity (CG) of the PMHS. Reference sensor data from the head CG were used as inputs for the Simulated Injury Monitor (SIMon). Brain responses were assessed with the cumulative strain damage measure set at 10%, or CSDM(10).

Results: Compared to ATD tests, PMHS tests produced 18.7% higher peak linear accelerations and 5.2% higher peak angular velocities. Average times to peak for linear accelerations were relatively similar between ATDs (5.5?ms) and PMHSs (5.8?ms). However, times to peak for angular velocities were higher by a factor of up to 3.4 for PMHSs compared to ATDs. Values for were also higher by a factor of up to 13.1 when PMHS inputs were used for SIMon.

Conclusions: The preliminary findings of this work indicate that small differences in ATD versus PMHS head kinematics could lead to large differences in strain-derived brain injury metrics such as CSDM.     

网格划分及开口处计算区域延展对FDS模拟结果的影响

结合具体算例,引入相关性分析方法对FDS应用中出现的网格独立性问题进行了量化研究,就火源区、羽流区和烟气层区对网格密度敏感性的差别进行了讨论,并且分析了开口处计算区域设置对计算结果的影响.随着网格密度的增大.不同计算结果之间的相关性值不断增大至0.99以上,且火源区的相关性值受网格密度影响最大,浮力羽流区次之,烟气层区最小.不延展计算区域和延展计算区域情况下的计算结果的相关性值较低,而不同计算区域延展范围下的计算结果之间的相关性均较高.结果表明,相关性值可以用来衡量计算结果的网格独立性.火源区、浮力羽流区、烟气层区对于网格密度的敏感程度依次递减,加密火源区在控制计算时间的同时可以有效提高计算精度.计算区域设置对于建筑开口处的烟气溢流和补气情况将产生重要影响.进而将影响到建筑内部的热流场,将开口处的计算区域适当向外延展,是保证计算结果精确度的有效手段.     

Prediction models for psychophysical lifting capabilities and the resulting physiological responses for work shifts of varied durations

This paper presents models for predicting estimates of maximum weights of lift acceptable to industrial workers for 8-hour work shifts. Prediction models are also presented for heart rate and oxygen uptake at the maximum acceptable weight of lift. Experimental data collected on 37 males and 37 females were used in developing and verifying these models. Each subject performed nine variations of a lifting task involving three heights, four frequencies, and three box sizes to determine estimates of acceptable lifts for 8-hour shifts. The final lifting capability prediction models explained 76 to 82% variance in the experimental data. A procedure is also described to determine, from these models, acceptable lifts for work periods of variable lengths. The physiological-response-prediction models, which provide estimates of heart rate and oxygen uptake at the maximum acceptable weight of lift, were, however, relatively inferior to other similar response models available in the literature. This is thought to be due to the differences between the psychophysical and physiological methodologies.