Iron ore spot price volatility and change in forward pricing mechanism

To examine the impact of the change in forward pricing mechanism on the volatility of iron ore spot prices, we model the iron ore daily price of Platts IODEX from October 7, 2008 to September 21, 2012. The identified iron ore spot price tends to be less volatile after the introduction of quarterly pricing mechanism. Our main approaches are as follows: (i) to decompose the spot price of Platts IODEX into two subsamples and relate the result of the structural break to the date of the switch in the iron ore forward pricing mechanism; (ii) to apply the EGARCH (1, 1) model to simultaneously capture the long memory and the asymmetric effect on the volatility of the iron ore spot price; and (iii) to delineate the news impact curve to further interpret the asymmetric effect.     

Challenges and political solutions for steel recycling in China

The circular economy is an essential component of China's sustainable development. To promote the recycling of end-of-life products, the government has adopted various policies. Steel scrap is an important resource for steelmaking. Yet, the Chinese iron and steel industry uses less scrap to produce new steel compared to other large steelmaking countries. This article examines the reasons, why steel recycling is still relatively weak in China and what measures the government takes to improve the situation. We found that limited availability of scrap, high scrap prices, inadequate steelmaking capacities, industry fragmentation and unclear responsibilities for manufacturers are the main obstacles for steel recycling in China. The government is trying to improve steel recycling through tax incentives, import facilitation, support for supply, industry reorganization, and recycling parks, but with modest results.     

Pricing behaviour and market power in North American non-ferrous metal industries

The paper considers the degree to which declining market power explains modifications in pricing behaviour observed since the late 1970s in the North American aluminium, copper, lead and zinc industries. More precisely, it relates those changes in pricing policies to the price elasticity of demand facing the dominant strategic group in each industry, the cost elasticity of supply and to the management's ability to coordinate or internalize conduct decisions. The results suggest that the firms in the copper and lead industries do not hold as a group any form of market power. In the case of the aluminum industry, a notable increase in the price elasticity of demand since the end of the 1970s, a sustained decrease in the concentration ratio and a rigid production process are weakening the presence of market power in that industry. The results are inconclusive in the case of the zinc industry since the determinants of market power move in opposite directions.     

Private capital: What impedes its entry into China's minerals industry

The paper commences with an analysis of the nature and status of private capital investment in the minerals industry in China. Based on the analysis, the authors examine the main barriers in terms of the mineral rights market, industry access and investment security that impede the participation of private capital into exploration and development of China's mineral resources. The discussion addresses how to encourage the participation of private capital into mining investment and it concludes that it is of significant importance to ensure the soundness of mineral rights market, impartiality of industry access, and security of mineral rights.     

Long-term iron ore price modeling: Marginal costs vs. incentive price

The paper studies and applies the approaches to forecast long-term (LT) real prices of iron ore. This price is crucial for valuation of investments in Greenfield iron ore projects on the horizon of more than 5 years. The forecast is obtained by three different approaches which are usually used by investment bank analysts: marginal costs approach and 2 approaches based on calculation of incentive price. The paper concludes that there has been a structural shift on the iron ore market and LT iron ore prices will be higher by 20–30% than the average of industry forecasters suggest. This is related to the 2 key factors which were taken into account in this study—depletion of existing iron ore deposits and targeted return on investments for new projects. In addition, escalated industry costs inflation is claimed to be the factor which will bolster nominal iron ore prices at high levels in the long-term. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation approach, confidence interval for future iron ore price was estimated.     

Seaborne iron ore trade in the 1990s

This paper discusses how world steel production and seaborne iron ore trade have grown since 1950. The role of steel production forecasts in determining investment in the iron ore industry is examined. Forecasts for world steel production and the demand and supply of seaborne iron ore in the 1990s are presented. It is predicted that world steel production will increase by 64 million tons between 1991 and 2000. This increase will be located principally in the developing countries and China. The corresponding increase in seaborne iron ore trade will be approximately 55 million tons. Expansion projects will be located mainly in Australia and Brazil, but no greenfield iron ore projects will be undertaken. By the end of the decade, the demand for seaborne iron ore will be equal to its supply.     

The ‘new’ economics of iron and steel

The author commences his analysis of the iron and steel industry by examining the historical background of the industry, and discusses its importance for the world economy. He examines the implications for the world industry of the successful development of the steel industry in Japan, and traces the evolution of a commodity cartel in the iron ore market, analysing the price levels of the commodity in the ‘free’ and ‘controlled’ markets. Following a discussion of the role of energy and coking coal supplies in the industry, the author examines the evolution of this industry in the less developed countries, with particular reference to the role of technology in the industry's development. He concludes that there have been important structural changes in the world industry, embraced by the concept of ‘partial demise’.     

Economic analysis of reform policies for small coal mines in China

Over the last three decades, China’s coal industry has achieved dramatic increases in coal production, both in absolute terms and relative to the world as a whole. This achievement is due largely to its coal policies. Yet facing increasing pressures of environmental sustainability and market transition, the Chinese government was forced to make deep reforms and adjustments to regulate the coal industry effectively. This paper presents an historical overview of China’s coal economic policies, paying particular attention to the current reform policy of closing mines and restricting the yield for the small coal mines (SCMs) in the context of economic theories and methods. We argue that the SCM closure policy would not likely be efficiently enforced if a feasible market mechanism were not built up. The failure of closure policy is due largely to problems of property rights, coal pricing, ownership, and objectives.     

Measurement of market power for the environmentally regulated Korean iron and steel manufacturing industry

For industries in which where market prices of certain inputs are not available, measuring the degree of market power by using the markup over the marginal market cost may be inappropriate. With regard to the Korean iron and steel manufacturing industry, which is subject to environmental regulations, the calculation of the price of abatement capital is hindered by a lack of relevant data. To increase the reliability of market power markups, this paper estimates the restricted cost function in which abatement capital is assumed to be quasi-fixed at an optimal level and the supply relation. The degree of market power for the industry, measured as the ratio of the estimated market power markup to the supply price, was estimated to be 0.54 on average between 1982 and 2001. The results indicate that ignoring environmental regulations can overstate the degree of market power by approximately 12%.     

Forecasting iron ore import and consumption of China using grey model optimized by particle swarm optimization algorithm

The iron and steel industry plays a fundamental role in a country's national economy, especially in developing countries. China is the largest iron ore consumption market in the world. However, because of limited domestic iron ore resources, a large proportion of iron ore is imported from other countries. Faced with the conflict between the iron ore supply shortage and the growing demand, it is necessary for the government to predict imports and total consumption. This paper develops a high-precision hybrid model based on grey prediction and rolling mechanism optimized by particle swarm optimization algorithm. We use the China Statistical Yearbook (1996–2011) as our database to test the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method. According to the experimental results, the proposed new method clearly can improve the prediction accuracy of the original grey model. Future projections have also been done for iron ore imports and total consumption in China in the next five years.     

Quantification of Chinese steel cycle flow: Historical status and future options

China is the largest steel producer and consumer around the world. Quantifying the Chinese steel flow from cradle to grave can assist this industry to fully understand its historical status and future options on production route transformation, capacity planning, scrap availability, resource and energy consumption. With the help of the systematic methods combined dynamic MFA (material flow analysis) with scenario analysis, the Chinese steel cycle during the first half of the 21st century was quantified and several thought-provoking conclusions were draw. In the past decade, lots of pig iron or molten iron was fed into EAF (electric arc furnace) and the scrap usage of EAF fluctuated slightly. Thus, the real scrap-EAF route share is much lower than the EAF production share. On the other hand, we reconfirmed that the scrap supply in China will rise significantly in the future. Meanwhile, the secondary production route share will grow sharply and exceed primary production share before or after 2050 depending on our options. The scrap recycling rate and construction's lifetime play a vital role in this trend. In the end, an intensive discussion on production capacities’ adjustment and energy and resource consumption was conducted and relative policy suggestions were given. It is worth noting that scrap usage is crucial to future energy saving and emissions reduction of Chinese steel sector and its energy consumption might peak as early as 2015.     

Sources of productive efficiency: International comparison of iron and steel firms

Using a time-varying stochastic frontier model, this paper examines the technical efficiency of firms in the iron and steel industry to try to identify the factors contributing to the industry's efficiency growth. Industry observers and policymakers tend to cite most frequently three possible sources of efficiency growth: privatization; economies of scale; and vintage of equipment. Our study corroborates these factors. Based on our findings, which pertain to 52 iron and steel firms over the period of 1978–1997, privatization is likely to improve the efficiency of iron and steel firms to a great extent as evidenced in various industries. This study also provides systematic evidence that iron and steel production shows economies of scale. In addition, newer vintages of equipment are found to be closely correlated with higher levels of efficiency. This clearly indicates that investment in new plants and equipments is critical in pursuit of efficiency in the iron and steel industry.     

World copper market, 1973–1982, and international stabilization policies

This article critically examines international price stabilization policy in relation to the main features of the world copper market and the structural changes that have affected the industry in the decade up to 1982. The first section summarizes the main features of the world copper market, briefly discussing the principal structural changes; the second part examines the recent pattern of investment in copper and changes in ownership of some copper producing companies resulting from the need for improved cash flows due to the adverse effects of the recession; and the third part analyses the practical and theoretical issues relating to the question of price instability. A number of formidable problems are likely to arise from such price stabilization policies and it is concluded that it is because of these difficulties that the policies have not been implemented. Consequently, international commodity agreements designed to minimize or avoid price instability have proved difficult to conclude. New questions on which consensus is likely should be examined to promote intergovernmental co-operation, and hence market stability. With that end in view, this article lists some new questions that could form the basis of an agenda for exploratory intergovernmental discussions on copper.     

钢铁企业雨水资源的应用前景分析

钢铁企业是用水大户,节约工业新水量、降低吨钢耗新水指标已经成为钢铁企业节能减排的重要任务之一。雨水作为一种重要的淡水资源,日益受到钢铁企业的重视。开发利用雨水资源是钢铁企业摆脱有限水资源束缚、可持续发展的重要出路之一。本文从实际情况出发,对钢铁企业雨水资源应用的前景和需要解决的问题作了初步的分析。     

Mitigation paths for Chinese iron and steel industry to tackle global climate change

Based on a recognition of the essence of climate change and the pressure on China to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this paper interprets the important role that the Chinese iron and steel industry may play in managing emissions. Through an investigation of the key sources of GHG emissions in the Chinese iron and steel industry, a comparison of the current Chinese and international situations, and a survey of the technology and methods available for reducing GHG emissions, and their application in China, the authors analyze the major issues currently faced by the Chinese iron and steel industry, and propose the following four approaches through which the industry might reduce its GHG emissions: (1) encouragement of clean development mechanism (CDM) projects, mainly involving secondary energy reuse, to provide capital and technology for GHG reduction activities in China; (2) stimulation of the social responsibility-based voluntary carbon market (VCM) to increase the long-term benefits for the Chinese iron and steel industry from emission reductions; (3) undertaking of strict energy auditing to help enterprises establish appropriate emission reduction targets and formulate reasonable plans; (4) promotion of emission reduction-oriented investment within the industry to obtain profits from project operation, while at the same time gaining extra compensation for emission reductions. More specifically, the design of each of these approaches should take into consideration the related economic factors and incentive mechanisms.     

Horizontal mergers in the iron ore industry—An application of PCAIDS

The purpose of this paper is to estimate and analyse the price effects of the iron ore mergers between Rio Tinto and North Ltd in 2000, and CVRD and Caemi in 2001. The analyses are conducted using a merger simulation model that, based on the pre-merger situation, estimates the post-merger outcome. This paper applies the so-called proportionality-calibrated almost ideal demand system (PCAIDS) model, which assumes that the product is differentiated and that the strategic variable is price. The results from the merger simulations show that in the case of the merger between Rio Tinto and North Ltd, the merged firm has a combined market share of almost 20%. However, the estimated market weighted average price effect is only 2.6%. Regarding the merger between CVRD and Caemi, the merged firm's market share is about 29%, and the estimated market weighted average price effect is 4.6%. When removing Caemi's Canadian asset, which was the Commission decision in order to allow the merger, the market price effect decreases to 3.1%. Overall the results in this study support the Commission's decisions regarding both merger cases, and shows that merger simulations of price effects can be valuable tools in merger assessments.     

Ongoing ascent to the helium production plateau—Insights from system dynamics

Recent, pre-downturn, disturbance in the global helium market can be traced to the tight supply–demand position, which characterizes today’s changing helium supply structure. A detailed System Dynamics model provides fresh insight into the helium question and suggests a production path that is closely associated with future natural gas production. Venting of un-extracted helium to the atmosphere remains a central issue. The model indicates that improving resource exploitation strategies might extend a production plateau that emerges in the 2030s. Substitution will result in more helium being vented. To mitigate this, the industry needs to ensure security of supply (particularly after the Bureau of Land Management reserve is sold).     

Financial and economic factors affecting the lignite prices in Turkey: An analysis of Soma and Can lignites

Using a simultaneous equation econometric model based on yearly data between 1997 and 2006 for the Aegean Lignite Enterprise this study examines factors that affect the lignite price in Turkey. The Aegean Lignite Enterprise produces and sells the lignite of Soma and Can and their data reflect the general Turkish situation. The results suggest that (1) lignite prices sold to the industry increase (decrease) depending on the decrease (increase) in the industrial production and (2) total electricity production and electricity price are the most important factors that potential investors and related persons have to take into consideration for the pricing of lignite in the thermal power plant market.     

我国危险废物处置收费政策的问题与建议

我国危险废物处置收费政策在十多年的发展历程中逐步建立健全,促进了危险废物处置行业的发展壮大。本文基于对我国各省份危险废物处置收费政策的定价主体、分档方式、收费标准、调整情况等制定和执行状况的梳理分析发现,各省份以不同形式出台了危险废物处置收费政策,然而,重要内容缺失、动态调整滞后、有效监管不足等问题较为普遍。针对这些问题,文章提出了因地制宜健全收费政策、科学开展处置价格核算、加快建立动态调整机制、实施部门联动管理监督等建议,可为完善我国危险废物处置收费政策提供参考。     

COSTS AND EFFECTS OF A WATER PROGRAM FOR A SMALL STRIPPING COMPANY-SOUTHEASTERN OHIO1

The purpose of the study was to use economic analysis in determining the ability of a small strip mining company to incure the financial burden of carrying out various alternative mine drainage abatement programs. The quantity and quality of water with which the company has to deal were determined and treatment and diversion programs were costed out. The company's market area and the market structure were analyzed. It was found that pricing policies were determined by a dominant firm, so the target company had no control over its price per ton of coal. The costs and revenue of the firm were analyzed for the period 1960-1970 and, even without a water quality program, losses were incurred in six out of eleven years. Analysis of the average cost curve indicates that the per unit cost could have been reduced by increasing output thereby increasing efficiency. The conclusions of the study were that the small company could not unilaterally implement mine drainage programs because the added costs would seriously worsen its already precarious financial position. Even uniformly enforced legislation might reduce the small firms competitive position because of economies of scale associated with the large treatment facilities used by big mining companies.