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1.
In a recent article (Tilton et al., 2011), we argue that even when investor stocks are declining an increase in investor demand can cause a commodity's price to rise, a conclusion that is both contrary to conventional wisdom and counter-intuitive. In his comment on our article, Olle Östensson (2011) challenges this finding. After assessing his concerns in this reply, we maintain that our original finding is valid: investor demand can be driving commodity prices higher even when investor stocks are falling.  相似文献   

2.
Tilton et al. claim in their article “Investor demand and spot commodity prices” to show that “investor demand can be pushing up a commodity's price even when investor stocks are falling.” In the present comment, it is argued that in both the cases described by Tilton et al., investors are supplying the market, putting physical material into it, rather than adding to demand. Thus, the reasoning by Tilton et al. is not concerned with the phenomenon referred to in the traditional theory, where, in the absence of changes in demand and supply fundamentals, prices rise as a result of increased investor demand for futures contracts.  相似文献   

3.
This, our second reply to Östensson, supplements our earlier more technical analysis with a simple intuitive explanation of how investor demand can be driving commodity prices higher even when investor stocks are falling.  相似文献   

4.
Investor demand and spot commodity prices   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The on-going debate over the influence of investor demand on spot commodity prices largely attempts to assess this influence by measuring the growth in investor demand in recent years. Given the serious data problems that plague such analyses, this article pursues another approach in the hope of providing useful insights into the impact of investor demand on spot commodity prices. It focuses on the mechanisms by which investor demand affects spot prices, and in particular on two questions. First, how does an increase in investor demand on the futures markets affect the spot market and spot price? Second, when investor demand is increasing and pushing a commodity's price up, do physical stocks of the commodity also have to be rising, as economists and others widely assume?On the first question, the article concludes that a surge in investor demand raising prices on the futures markets will have a direct and comparable effect on the spot market prices when these markets are in strong contango. However, when markets are in weak contango or backwardation, price movements in the futures markets have a much looser effect on spot prices. As a result, changes in investor demand on the futures markets may have little or no influence on spot prices in the absence of a strong contango. Instead, changes in fundamentals (that is, producer supply and consumer demand) and possibly changes in investor demand taking place directly on the spot market largely determine the spot price at such times.On the second question, the article shows that investor demand can be pushing up a commodity's price even when investor stocks are falling, despite the widespread presumption to the contrary.  相似文献   

5.
The production, price and economic resources profiles of a number of mineral commodities are examined and consideration is given to the theory that such profiles can be related to one another within the framework of a life-cycle model of development. While the behaviour of some of the commodities examined appears to lend support to the theory, that of others reveals fundamental problems with its underlying assumptions. It is concluded that, while the demand for a mineral commodity in specific uses may indeed manifest cyclical tendencies, as a general behavioural theory and as a basis for resource estimation the life-cycle model applied to minerals is of little value.  相似文献   

6.
The study consists of two parts. One part deals with recreation and vacation demands; the other investigates the relationship between recreation demand and some natural landscape elements preferred in the eastern Black Sea coastal zone of Turkey, which has traditionally a rich recreational culture. Home interview surveys were conducted during the summer of 1992. The recreation demand of the study area has been found to be 89.3% including potential demand. The landscape element "sea and seaside" preferred for recreation has been rated the highest in all groups of each of the five variables, namely, age, education, income, occupation, and marital status. The research reported here represents an empirical contribution to the field of landscape preference studies for recreation, especially in the developing countries.  相似文献   

7.
This article deals with the development and application of a cartographic database for a synoptic Geographic Information System (GIS). Its purpose is the storage and evaluation of the heterogeneous datasets of the interdisciplinary scientific research program MADAM (Mangrove Dynamics and Management), which aims to develop recommendations for a tailored integrated coastal management scheme for the mangrove ecosystem at Bragança (North Brazil). The article describes the integration of remote sensing data, aerial photographs, as well as point data provided by fieldwork from different scientific fields. Using various innovative processing techniques and different scale-resolution levels, an assessment of temporal–spatial changes of the mangrove peninsula and the adjacent rural socioeconomic impact area, the type of mangrove structure, as well as a land-use cover analyses was undertaken. The definition of the spatial level of detail was found to be a major issue in the development of the GIS, as well as during the processing and analysis procedures. A division between strong and weak patterns in the mangrove ecosystem could be made, which implies different management measures and sets of specific interdisciplinary studies and monitoring at hierarchical scales.  相似文献   

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