Modelling future copper ore grade decline based on a detailed assessment of copper resources and mining

The concept of “peak oil” has been explored and debated extensively within the literature. However there has been comparatively little research examining the concept of “peak minerals”, particularly in-depth analyses for individual metals. This paper presents scenarios for mined copper production based upon a detailed assessment of global copper resources and historic mine production. Scenarios for production from major copper deposit types and from individual countries or regions were developed using the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo). These scenarios were extended using cumulative grade-tonnage data, derived from our resource database, to produce estimates of potential rates of copper ore grade decline.The scenarios indicate that there are sufficient identified copper resources to grow mined copper production for at least the next twenty years. The future rate of ore grade decline may be less than has historically been the case, as mined grades are approaching the average resource grade and there is still significant copper endowment in high grade ore bodies. Despite increasing demand for copper as the developing world experiences economic growth, the economic and environmental impacts associated with increased production rates and declining ore grades (particularly those relating to energy consumption, water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions) will present barriers to the continued expansion of the industry. For these reasons peak mined copper production may well be realised during this century.     

Exploration and discovery of Australia's copper,nickel, lead and zinc resources 1976–2005

Examination of copper, nickel, lead and zinc (base metals) exploration expenditure and discovery in Australia over the period 1976–2005 reveals some significant trends. Australia's base metal resource inventory grew substantially as a consequence of successful exploration over the period, both through addition of resources at known deposits and new discoveries, notably a small number of very large deposits that underpin the resource base. In 2005, Australia had the world's largest economic demonstrated resources (EDR) of nickel, lead and zinc, and the second largest EDR of copper. Growth in nickel resources has been especially strong owing to discovery of large laterite resources in the late 1990s. Resource life, in average terms based on current EDR and production, is approximately 30 years for lead and zinc, 40 years for nickel sulphide (120 years for all nickel EDR) and 50 years for copper. Despite this success, major increases in production over the period (copper, nickel and zinc output increasing 3–4 fold, lead output doubling) and a fall in discovery rates during much of the 1990s means that resource life for lead and zinc is lower and nickel sulphide comparable now to that in 1976; only the resource life of copper has grown substantially over the period. Current published ore reserves are sufficient for at least 15 years operations at current production levels, but only a small number of the largest deposits currently being mined are likely to still be in production in 20 years. However, several mines have substantial inferred resources that may allow production beyond current mine reserves and there is a substantial number of undeveloped deposits that may provide the foundation for extended or new mining operations. The discovery record is strongly cyclical with resource growth for all the base metals punctuated by the discovery of giant (world-class) deposits each decade: these underpin current and future production. Recent higher metal prices and renewed interest in base metals, especially nickel, has reversed a 10 year decline in base metal exploration attended by reduced rates of discovery and resulted in record expenditure, new nickel, copper and zinc discoveries, and increased resources at a number of existing deposits, notably the Olympic Dam copper–uranium–gold deposit. With the exception of the Prominent Hill copper–gold and West Musgrave nickel–copper deposits, most of the recent discoveries, especially zinc (-lead) deposits, are of small tonnage (some of high grade). Nevertheless, these new discoveries have helped stimulate further exploration and also highlight the potential for further discoveries in little-explored provinces, especially those under regolith and shallow sedimentary cover.     

Incorporating environmental issues into optimum cut-off grades modeling at porphyry copper deposits

Cut-off grade is defined as the grade which discriminates between ore and waste within a given orebody. Determination of a complete optimum cut-off grade policy is a very important function during mine life. Using the modified optimum cut-off grade model presented in this paper not only the net present value of a porphyry copper mining project is maximized, but also the adverse environmental impacts of the project are minimized simultaneously. This methodology is more effective in long-range planning. For showing the effectiveness of the model, two scenarios are considered in a hypothetical deposit and the results show that incorporating the modified optimum cut-off grade policy, the net present value will be increased by 3.6% in comparison with the Base Case.     

A review of the PGM industry,deposit models and exploration practices: Implications for Australia's PGM potential

Australia is prospective for platinum group metal (PGM) mineralisation (in particular primary magmatic reef, primary magmatic by-product, late magmatic and hydrothermal, and alluvial placer type) but its known PGM endowment is negligible compared to that of South Africa, Russia, the USA and Canada. Most Australian PGM projects are operated by mid-cap or junior companies and form part of larger, more diverse project portfolios held by these explorers. Most projects were ‘hot’ while market conditions were favourable. However, as other metals became ‘fashionable’ and market conditions for PGM changed, so did the focus of these companies. Pure PGM companies are rare in Australia. The search for and development of PGM-only deposits in Australia are high risk business activities. No new primary PGM deposits have been discovered since the mid to late 1980s and none of the significant deposits that were discovered or evaluated in the 1980s have been mined. This review suggests that at least several A$10 million but more likely several A$100 million were sunk into PGM exploration and development projects but none advanced to the mining stage. The viability of Australian PGM projects is very sensitive to (1) metal prices, (2) the US$/A$ exchange rate, and (3) large capital expenditure requirements relative to the small size of Australian PGM-only deposits. Most PGM-only projects were initiated at times of high PGM prices. However, advanced exploration, feasibility studies and project development always lagged behind the price booms. South Africa, Russia and Canada contain approximately 98% of the known global PGM reserves. This situation has a very negative effect on the Australian PGM industry as the well-endowed nations continue to receive the lion's share of exploration spend and new projects.     

Manganese nodules— an example of a Lasky distribution?

Readily accessible analytical data from 530 stations from which manganese nodules have been collected are used to investigate what relationship, if any, there is between grade (expressed as the combined copper and nickel content) and the number of samples. It is concluded that not only average grade but also cut-off grade have the relationships with cumulative quantities suggested by Lasky, subject to the exclusion of certain, apparently anomalous, data. These relationships can be used to derive information on the distribution of the quantity of contained metal at different average and cut-off grades, which may have applications to other mineral deposits.     

Metalliferous sediments in the Atlantis II Deep—Assessing the geological and economic resource potential and legal constraints

Projected increases in demand and thus increasing metal prices have brought the exploration and exploitation of marine mineral resources back into focus. The Atlantis II Deep, located in the central Red Sea between Saudi Arabia and Sudan, is one of the largest marine sulfide deposits known, with high concentrations of metals such as zinc, copper, silver and gold. However, little is known about the economic potential of marine minerals as well as the legal constraints. Our geological assessment shows that the deep is similar in grades and scale to large land-based deposits. Its economic potential is far from negligible. The total present value of possible gross revenues for the four metals zinc, copper, silver and gold ranges from 3.03 to 5.29 billion US$, depending on the assumptions made concerning future price development, mass calculation and discount rate. From a legal perspective, a general duty to cooperate in the exploration and exploitation of non-living resources located in disputed maritime areas is identified in both customary international law and in UNCLOS. It is submitted that a joint development agreement is one means of ensuring compliance with this duty in general and in the case of the Atlantis II Deep in particular.     

US uranium deposits: A geostatistical model

The frequency distributions of both grade and size of metal deposits may be well approximated by lognormal distribution functions. Using data on presently viable deposits and a simplified function which links production cost to deposit grade and size, a bivariate lognormal deposit grade/size distribution may be calibrated for a given geological environment. Exploration is introduced by assuming that the proportion discovered of the potential uranium reserve available at or below a given production cost can be represented by a function of the average deposit size and the unit exploration expenditure. As output the model derives estimates of total reserves linked to maximum production costs and to exploration expenditure where the latter may be expressed either as expenditure per lb of mineral discovered or as a given percentage of operating profit. The model is offered as a basis for discussion, and the conclusions are tentative.     

Australian gold exploration 1976–2003

The Australian gold industry has grown enormously over the past 25 years. Australian mine production of gold in 2003 was 284 t, similar to that of the USA, and behind South Africa, the world's largest gold-producing nation. Gold is Australia's third largest commodity export, worth an estimated A$5.3 billion in 2003–2004.Underpinning the industry is a solid resource base that has grown by successful exploration over the past three decades. Australia ranks third in the world after South Africa and the USA in terms of its economic gold resources. The growth in Australia's gold resources has been underpinned by high levels of exploration and innovations in gold processing technologies, specifically the development of carbon-based gold extraction methods that allowed commercial treatment of low grade ores. It has been supported by advances in gold exploration methods, especially exploration geochemistry.New resources were added at existing deposits and new deposits were found, including several of world class (>100 t contained gold), in each decade over the 25-year-period but resource growth since the 1990s has been dominated by brownfields additions rather than new discoveries. Average costs of discovery have now plateauxed at around A$20–25/oz, after falling sharply during the early to mid-1990s when a number of new discoveries were made, notably in the Yandal belt in Western Australia and the Lachlan Fold Belt in New South Wales. Current gold reserve/production and gold EDR/production ratios are 12 and 19 years, respectively, and indicate that the long-term future of the Australian gold industry depends on continued high levels of exploration and the discovery of new deposits to replace mines that are currently being depleted.     

New mine capacity from yet-to-be found copper deposits

The copper industry in the USA is declining, but exploration for copper has been particularly promising in western Montana. The potential copper mine capacity of the area was estimated by using an interdisciplinary geological-economical assessment technique that categorizes deposits on the basis of development probability. Development probability is quantified and aggregated into potential new mine supply curves, which summarize resource potential of the region. The results suggest that copper resources in Montana and elsewhere are potentially large and that these resources probably will be mined at higher copper prices. This mineral assessment technique increases the usefulness of traditional methods for planners and policy makers.     

WATER USE AND WATER CONSERVATION BY THE COPPER MINING INDUSTRY1

ABSTRACT: This paper examines the use of water by copper mines for treating low grade ores. The froth flotation process for treating sulphide ore and the heap leaching process for treating oxide ore are described, and ways of reducing the amount of water used in these processes are discussed. Estimates of the costs reducing water consumption are given. Finally, the circumstances in which it would be desirable for a copper mine to reduce its level of water consumption are considered.     

Effects of taxes and royalties on copper mining investment in British Columbia

This paper explains the effects of federal and provincial taxes and royalties on the choice of mine life, mine size, reserve volumes and ore grades for copper deposits in British Columbia. The model described in the paper attempts to spell out some of the complicated interplay of geological, financial, and fiscal factors affecting mine development decisions.     

An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting

The global gold market has recently attracted a lot of attention and the price of gold is relatively higher than its historical trend. For mining companies to mitigate risk and uncertainty in gold price fluctuations, make hedging, future investment and evaluation decisions, depend on forecasting future price trends. The first section of this paper reviews the world gold market and the historical trend of gold prices from January 1968 to December 2008. This is followed by an investigation into the relationship between gold price and other key influencing variables, such as oil price and global inflation over the last 40 years. The second section applies a modified econometric version of the long-term trend reverting jump and dip diffusion model for forecasting natural-resource commodity prices. This method addresses the deficiencies of previous models, such as jumps and dips as parameters and unit root test for long-term trends. The model proposes that historical data of mineral commodities have three terms to demonstrate fluctuation of prices: a long-term trend reversion component, a diffusion component and a jump or dip component. The model calculates each term individually to estimate future prices of mineral commodities. The study validates the model and estimates the gold price for the next 10 years, based on monthly historical data of nominal gold price.     

Copper, Cobalt, Nickel and Manganese Availability from Land-based Endowments A Perspective

Estimates of land-based demonstrated resources of cobalt, copper, manganese, and nickel would indicate adequate supply for many years to come based on current levels of annual consumption. However, when these resource estimates are disaggregated, much of this resource is found to occur in a limited number of producing mines. Almost all of the cobalt in these resources coexists with either nickel or copper, and as such, will be available only to the degree extraction of these two metals from existing mines is economical. Finally, current projections of excess capacity in existing mines for all four metals, coupled with additional inferred resources at these mines and yet to be exploited resources in known economical deposits, would lead one to conclude that, from this perspective, the mining of sea bed nodules is not likely to occur until well into the next century.     

The metal mining industry in Eastern Europe

The mining industry has been one of the backbones of the socialist countries of Eastern Europe, not only in economic, but also in political, terms. Three years after the beginning of economic reforms, the mining industry in all the Eastern European countries is facing dramatic changes. Most mines are mining ores below acceptable cut-off grades, and there is no hope of finding new, richer deposits. Downstream metallurgical industries will need to replace their former suppliers. In addition, the social contract that had been maintained under the socialist governments is about to be undone and a new form of internal organization must be found. The success of the economic reforms in Eastern Europe depends upon the capacity to develop new industrial relations: the large mining combinates will have to be transformed into competitive capitalist enterprises and the role of the state must be redefined. Prospects for this transformation vary greatly, from metal to metal and from country to country. Finally, restructuring in Eastern Europe will also affect European and world markets, both on the supply and demand sides. The integration of the Eastern European mining industries into the international mining community should be the medium-term goal of all the participants .     

GOLD-MINING EFFECTS ON HEAVY METALS IN STREAMS,CIRCLE QUADRANGLE,ALASKA1

Placer gold mining, which extracts gold from buried or exposed alluvia, is often conducted on or near streams. Such mining has the potential to adversely affect water quality. Other heavy metals associated with the gold (such as arsenic, cadmium, lead, zinc, and copper) may be freed to enter streams. Mercury may also enter streams if miners are using it to recover fine particles of gold. These heavy metals are toxic and thus may be harmful to the aquatic life of the streams receiving effluent or runoff from placer mines. In 1982 we sampled two streams intensively - one heavily mined and one unmined - for total recoverable arsenic, mercury, lead, zinc, and copper. Only mercury was not significantly higher in concentration in the mined streams. In 1983 we sampled two stream pairs three times, and 10 other sites at least once, for total and dissolved arsenic, cadmium, mercury, lead, zinc, and copper. Mercury and cadmium were not significantly elevated in mined streams, but the concentrations of total arsenic, lead, zinc, and copper, and dissolved arsenic and zinc were significantly higher in streams below active placer mining sites than in these that were not being mined or those that had never been mined. Additionally, total arsenic, lead, zinc, and copper and dissolved arsenic and copper became elevated after mining began in 1983 on a previously unmined stream.     

Assessing the impact of driverless haul trucks in Australian surface mining

Australia has been a leading mining nation and its mines continue to attract substantial investment due to its strong mineral endowment, mining tradition and high skills base. In recent years Australian mining companies have been facing higher labour costs, which need to be offset by other savings. Automating mine-site machinery offers one potential source of such savings.Underground mines pioneered automated technology largely for safety and mine accessibility reasons and to reduce operating costs. Yet these operations now represent a much smaller portion of the total ore tonnes mined due to the changing mining techniques meaning larger lower grade deposits are becoming economic. It appears the future of mine automation will be directed by surface mining as this maturing technology finds further applications above ground and in the next decade large scale open pit automation trials gain more momentum.This paper assesses the implications of introducing driverless haul trucks in a typical large remote Australian open-pit mine. Such automation will save employee and associated costs, increase operational productive hours and ultimately will reduce mine site workforce numbers. While there will be fewer jobs per mine, with reduced costs and higher productivity some previously uneconomic mines may again be profitable.The social implications of greater mine site automation are the reduction in population of remote mining towns and a decrease in the lower skilled labour requirements for the mining sector. There will be an increase in fly-in fly-out mining operations and companies will establish remote control centres for automated mines in larger cities. This may decrease overall labour requirements and so reduce employment in the sector; therefore, the government should be mindful of implementing policies that ensure a fair return on the economic rent of mineral leases.     

Duration and characteristics of metal price cycles

This paper addresses the fluctuations in real metal prices: are they simply random variations or do they display some degree of cyclicality? This study identifies peaks and troughs in the inflation adjusted prices for 14 metals, using monthly average data from January 1947 through December 2007. Duration dependence testing, which is performed on the expansions, contractions, and full cycles, finds many cases in which the duration of these phases are not purely random and have some degree of cyclicality. Additional characterization show that contractions generally persist longer than expansions (in contrast to macroeconomic cycles) that long-term real prices have been trendless, and that the amplitude of price changes over the phases has little regularity. For those performing this type of analysis, the appendices explain the procedures for dating turning points and assessing duration dependence.     

Rare earth elements as critical raw materials: Focus on international markets and future strategies

Supply of some critical raw materials by European industry is becoming more and more difficult. After the case of natural textile fibres, in particular cotton, and timber, over the last few years the problem of rare earths (REs) availability has also risen. The 97% of the global supply of rare earth metals (REMs) is produced by China, that has recently done copious cuts of its exports, apparently in order to protect its environment. This fact has greatly increased the REs prices, causing tension and uncertainty among the world hi-tech markets. Many of these materials, in fact, have very few effective substitutes and low recycling rates too. In addition, their natural reserves of rare earths are concentrated in a small number of countries (China, Brazil, US, Russia, Democratic Republic of Congo). REMs are a group of 17 elements particularly used in many new electronic and advanced components: such as fuel cells, mobile phones, displays, hi-capacity batteries, permanent magnets for wind power generation, green energy devices, etc. Many analysts foresee much more requests in the next decades.     

Long-term adequacy of metal resources

Although the earth's crust contains vast quantities of metals, extraction technologies and associated costs are inextricably bound to three fundamental geological factors — the amount of metal available in the earth's crust in each range of grades, the mineralogical form and chemical state of the metal, and the spatial distribution of the metal. The energy required to recover a given amount of metal increases substantially as grade declines. Most metal is produced from sulphide or oxide minerals, whereas most metal in the crust may be locked in the structures of the more refractory silicates. Recovery from silicate minerals could require orders of magnitude more energy than that used at present as also could exploitation of small, widely scattered or thin, deeply buried deposits. Although specific information on the fundamental factors is not available, each factor must in turn tend to further restrict exploitation. Independence of average grade and tonnage for many deposit types further reduces the availability of rock as a source of metal. In the long term, effects of these factors will be large increases in price for many metals.     

Impact of different public E&P policies on natural gas reserves and production in Pakistan

Low wellhead domestic gas prices over the past few years have led to the beginning of a shortage in natural gas reserves and production in Pakistan. Gas demand steadily rises in all sectors for being an economical fuel as compare to substitutes. In the view of foregoing consumption trend, the demand for gas is expected to grow with a higher pace during the 2010s. On the contrary, indigenous gas reserves are running out and cannot keep up with the demand. This paper examines the extent of upstream activities in different petroleum policy regimes. The wellhead price for indigenous gas is compared with the prices of alternatives (for example, gas import prices). In order to put the problem in perspective, the relationship between wellhead gas price and cumulative gas reserves in Pakistan are analyzed and we find that the looming gas shortage can be ameliorated in the short-run and eliminated in the long-run through incentivized wellhead price. To put it briefly, the idea is mooted to first take advantage of huge domestic reserves to ensure competitive consumer prices for gas. The findings are applicable to several other economies with under-developed natural resources.