云南星云湖流域种植业面源污染驱动力分析

种植业面源污染是湖泊水的主要污染源之一,但是有关种植业面源污染驱动力的研究甚少。为了研究星云湖流域种植业面源污染的驱动力,通过流失系数法计算2005、2010和2015年种植业化肥流失量,由多元线性回归分析其影响因素。结果表明:(1)农业人口占总人口的比重、耕地比重、经济作物和果树的播种面积、经济作物与粮食作物的播种面积比、第一产业产值均与化肥流失量呈正相关;粮食作物的播种面积、人均非农收入、环保投资指数均与化肥流失量呈负相关。(2)经济作物和果树的播种面积、经济作物与粮食作物播种面积比与化肥流失量正相关程度最高,均大于0. 9,所以星云湖流域种植业面源污染大小的决定因素是种植结构。建议下一步对星云湖流域种植业结构和空间布局进行优化。     

吉林西部土地利用/覆被时空变化驱动力分析

针对吉林两部土地利用/覆被情况,基于TM影像,借助人机交互解译方法,结合1:10万地形图获得1986年、1996年、2000年和2004年的4期土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)矢量数据.利用土地利用动态度模型、土地利用转移矩阵.全面揭示研究区15年的LUCC时空变化特征,结果表明.盐碱地扩张,湿地、水域萎缩和草地退化已经成为吉林西部生态环境恶化的突出表现.结合研究区的实际情况选取总人口数、农业人口数、粮食总产置等12个指标作为LUCC:变化的丰十会经济驱动因子,借助多元线性回归模型,建立主要土地利用类型的驱动力模型.结果表明吉林西部土地利用变化的最主要社会经济因子是农业人口数、农民人均纯收入、农业生产技术(农业机械总动力、化肥施用量)和农村用电量,同时提出相应的生态环境保护和社会经济措施.     

紫色土区土壤质量敏感因子空间分异特征及其对土地利用方式变化的响应研究

掌握土壤质量因子空间分异特征及其对土地利用方式变化的响应关系对于优化土地利用方式以及改善和提高土壤质量具有重要意义。通过对川中紫色土区典型小流域276样点土壤样品进行调查和分析,结合主成分分析(PCA)和典范对应分析(CCA)等方法,研究了川中紫色土区土壤质量主要敏感因子空间分异特征及其对土地利用方式变化的响应关系。结果显示,(1)紫色土区不同土地利用方式土壤总氮(STN)质量分数均值介于0.90-1.30g·kg~(-1);土壤总磷(STP)质量分数均值介于0.48-0.78 g·kg~(-1);土壤有机质(SOM)质量分数均值介于9.90-19.73 g·kg~(-1)。(2)主成分分析和典范对应分析表明,土壤质量敏感因子主成分与土地利用方式密切相关,且主成分与土地利用方式相关性排序表现为:第一主成分(铵态氮与物理性质),水田水旱轮作田旱地林地果园;第二主成分(STN和SOM),水田水旱轮作田林地果园旱地;第三主成分(STP和硝态氮),水旱轮作田旱地水田林地果园。(3)土壤质量主要敏感因子的变化能较好地响应土地利用方式变化,且土壤质量敏感因子与土地利用方式的CCA排序结果说明,不同的土地利用方式与土壤质量敏感因子间存在着不同的相关关系。土地利用方式的变化是紫色土区土壤质量敏感因子改变的重要驱动力,这将为区域土地资源合理利用、土地利用结构优化以及提高紫色土区土壤生产力和生态功能,特别是减轻区域水土流失状况提供依据。     

基于CA-Markov模型土地利用对景观格局影响辨识

采用CA-Markov模型方法,研究挠力河流域不同时段土地利用对湿地景观格局干扰强度的差异性.结果表明:(1)流域湿地景观格局变化显著.1967-2000年,挠力河流域湿地类型景观最大斑块指数逐渐减小,耕地和水域斑块的面积周长分维数逐渐减小,而沼泽和居民地的散布与并列指数变大,草甸和耕地聚集度指数增大;湿地景观破碎化程度增加;湿地景观空间分布逐渐由流域周围高地势区向中心河流廊道退缩.(2)流域土地利用变化明显.耕地和居民用地数量迅速增加,耕地趋于集中连片分布,土地利用呈由自然湿地逐渐转化为耕地的变化过程,耕地成为主导的土地利用类型.(3)流域土地利用强度存在阶段差异.1967-2000年,流域内人类活动对湿地景观的干扰强度逐渐加剧,人为景观面积比例由1967年的26.5%上升至2000年的67.8%.土地利用影响强度指数由1967年的1.690上升至2000年的2.394.2000年模拟的流域土地利用影响强度比2000年实际土地利用影响强度小,由此可以识别1983-2000年人类对湿地景观的干扰强度比1967-1983年有所增大;利用居民地和沼泽面积的变化可以识别流域人口增长和排水活动对土地利用影响的时段差异性.     

生态耕种对农户收入的影响研究:以江西省水稻种植户为例

生态耕种对提升耕地保护成效、保障农作物质量安全有着重大意义。利用江西省11市47县(区)1 488份水稻种植户的微观调查数据,基于最小二乘线性(OLS)回归和Heckman回归模型从整体上测度生态耕种对农户收入的影响,再引入分位数回归模型深入分析生态耕种对不同收入层次农户的收入效应。结果表明:(1)采纳生态耕种从整体上能够提高农户家庭的人均耕地收入,但会因农户的收入水平不同产生差异化的影响。(2)生态耕种对极低和低收入农户人均耕地收入具有正向影响,对中等及以上收入农户具有负向影响,仅对高等收入农户的人均耕地收入影响显著。(3)生计分化和耕地收入比重2个控制变量均会对农户人均耕地收入产生显著影响。鉴于此,提出了对低收入农户加大生态耕种政策扶持力度、积极引导中高收入农户的非农就业、切实加强耕地适度规模化经营等政策建议。     

红壤坡地茶园蒸腾及其影响因子研究

用整株容器法研究了红壤坡地茶园的蒸腾作用 ,结果显示 :(1)茶园蒸腾速率具有明显的早晚低、中午高的日变化特征 ,但在不同的日期蒸腾速率日变化曲线存在一定差异。 (2 )蒸腾速率受诸多田间小气候因子的影响 ,相关分析及多元逐步回归分析表明 ,气温与净辐射是影响茶园蒸腾作用的 2个主要气象因子。 (3)蒸腾速率与叶片气孔导度关系密切 ,且随着气孔导度的增加 ,蒸腾速率增大。最后探讨了植物蒸腾驱动力及其抑制的可能性及气孔行为的调节与水分利用。     

北京市西北郊大气气溶胶中多环芳烃的源解析

用气相色谱-质谱技术对北京市西北郊2005-2006年大气气溶胶样品中的多环芳烃进行分析检测,并运用比值法、主成分分析/多元线性回归和正矩阵因子分解对多环芳烃的来源进行解析主成分分析/多元线性回归表明,机动车尾气、燃煤和生物质燃烧的贡献率分别为70.27%,21.84%和7.89%.正矩阵因子分解表明,汽油车的贡献较大,且各个季节都占优势;冬季燃煤的贡献增加,秋季生物质燃烧的贡献增大.多环芳烃的比值表明其主要来自于本地源.     

小清河流域氮磷时空特征及影响因素的空间与多元统计分析

选取山东小清河流域为研究区,在2012—2013年汛期和非汛期的水质监测基础上,应用主成分分析(PCA)和聚类分析(CA)等多元统计方法识别流域不同形态氮磷浓度的时空分布特征,结合空间分析和相关分析方法辨析集水区不同土地利用方式对氮磷输出的影响。结果表明:流域氮污染严重,其中总氮超标率达100%。氨氮、磷酸盐浓度汛期显著高于非汛期,硝态氮浓度则非汛期显著高于汛期(P0.05)。以总磷、总溶解态磷为主要指标的主成分Z1对水质变化的贡献率接近50%,以总氮、氨氮和硝态氮为主要指标的主成分Z2对水质变化的贡献率接近20%。总氮、总磷、氨氮、磷酸盐和总溶解态磷浓度与集水区城市和工业建设用地的面积比例呈显著正相关(P0.05);硝态氮浓度与耕地面积比例呈显著正相关,与草地、林地面积比例呈显著负相关(P0.05)。空间上按氮磷分布特征不同子流域被划分为3类:第1类和第2类主要集中在干流及北部平原区,沿途接纳点源排放,氮磷浓度总体较高且空间差异较大;第3类流域主要位于南部山区,建设用地比例较小,污染程度相对较低。     

作物产量决定因子分析

应用主成分分析,将影响水稻产量的一系列因子概括为四个主要因子:(1)土壤肥力因子,(2)栽插措施因子,(3)田间管理因子;(4)产量性状因子。将上述因子作为自变量,水稻产量作为因变量,进行逐步回归分析,得到一个产量预测模型(R=0.962)。根据各变量的回归系数大小,可以得到产量决定因子对产量影响的大小顺序为,田间管理因子>土壤肥力因子。栽插措施因子和产量性状因子对水稻产量的影响未达显著水平。 文中所述的分析方法适用于在不同的土壤条件下预测作物产量的潜在变化。     

流域特征对南苕溪溶解有机质浓度的影响

溶解有机质(DOM)是水域生态系统中碳、氮、磷循环的重要组成部分,开展流域尺度上流域特征对河流DOM输出的调控机制研究,有助于加深对DOM经由河流向下游水体迁移的生物地球化学行为的认识,为改善河流及其下游水体富营养化状况和进行生态修复提供依据。选取南苕溪流域为研究对象,在其16个子流域开展近一年的采样调研,提取各子流域水温、流量、面积、平均坡度、平均高程以及5种土地利用类型[天然林、经济林(雷竹林)、农田、城镇、水域]面积占流域面积比例共10个流域特征变量,同时测定溶解有机碳(DOC)、溶解有机氮(DON)和溶解有机磷(DOP)浓度,分析DOM浓度的空间分布及季节动态,并结合多元分析方法,探讨流域特征对DOM浓度的影响机制。结果表明,DOC、DOP浓度呈由上游河源到下游河口递增的趋势,与流域内土地利用格局及相应的污染梯度变化一致。DON浓度受到流域内雷竹林集约经营活动的影响,就空间而言,在用地类型以雷竹林为主的子流域,DON浓度最高;就季节而言,春季DON浓度最高。夏、秋季DOP浓度小于春、冬季,此与水生生物对水中磷素吸收作用有关。主成分分析结果表明,流域地形地貌特征(土地利用类型、坡度等)对DOM浓度的影响要强于河流水文状况(流量、温度)。在主成分样点得分图中,以天然林为主的子流域与其他受人为影响的子流域(经济林、农田、城镇)分开分布,表明人为活动会引起DOM浓度的增加。多元回归分析结果表明,城镇用地占比是DOM浓度的最优预测变量,虽然城镇面积小(平均面积占比约为5%)、分布散,但却是流域内DOM重要的"源"。     

Temporal and spatial patterns and driving factors of cultivated land change in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau北大核心CSCD

随着经济快速发展、城镇化进程加快以及人口基数不断增加,在城市用地不断向外扩张以及生态退耕措施的影响下,耕地面积呈逐年减小的趋势.这一现象加剧了农业发展与其他要素间的矛盾,对区域粮食安全也产生重要影响,因此,探讨耕地面积时空变化及其驱动机制对保障区域粮食安全具有现实意义.分析青藏高原地区1980年、1990年、2000年、2010年、2018年的耕地面积数据,结合户籍人口、地区生产总值(GDP)、粮食单产等统计年鉴资料解析影响其变化的主要驱动因子.结果表明:(1)青藏高原近40年耕地面积变化总体经历缓慢增加、显著增加和缓慢递减3个阶段,整个变化过程中耕地主要流失方向为林地和草地,分别占总流失面积的50.99%和32.02%,主要原因为退耕还林还草等政策的实施,其次为建设用地和水域增加.(2)耕地转为非耕地的地区主要集中在四川西部、云南西北部、青海东部,而耕地转入地区主要集中在青藏高原中部.以地市州来看,拉萨、海东、海西、阿坝、林芝等地区耕地面积变化特征以缓慢递增为主;西宁、黄南、甘孜、甘南等地区的耕地面积则呈缓慢递减的变化趋势.(3)主成分分析和结构方程模型结果显示影响耕地面积减少的主要驱动因素包括经济社会发展和粮食生产.其中经济和社会因素对耕地面积变化产生的影响为负值,社会因素产生的负影响最大,为-0.224,人口基数增长、建设用地扩张、土地利用转型要求以及二、三产业红利的吸引都会导致耕地面积减小.本研究揭示了青藏高原地区近40年耕地变化情况及流失方向,耕地面积波动主要受到经济社会因素以及政策因素的影响;上述结果可为今后国家粮食安全及当地生态环境可持续发展提供理论参考.(图7表8参45)     

Empirical analysis on the influence of the Shaanxi fruit industry on regional food security

As part of its development policy to relieve rural poverty in west China, the Chinese government has introduced measures such as agricultural tax exemptions, agricultural subsidies, and scientific, technological and restructuring improvements to agriculture. Following these actions, farmers’ incomes have increased greatly and the economy in poor areas of west China has seen rapid improvements. However, agricultural restructuring, infrastructure construction and ecological restoration projects have reduced the area of land under arable farming, restricting opportunities for increasing total grain yield. Regional food security is therefore threatened and an imbalance between economic development and food security is created. Shaanxi is a representative province in west China where agricultural restructuring has resulted in large areas of arable land being converted into orchards that produce higher economic returns. This study randomly surveyed 1430 farm households in three counties in the apple-producing region of Shaanxi Province (Luochuan, Changwu and Baishui). The standard of living and household income of farmers in the fruit production areas were higher than in grain-producing areas, thus discouraging grain production. Land under agriculture in the counties studied comprised 59% orchards and 39% arable, with 2% under other uses. Per capita, 204.3 kg of grain was produced, 51% of that required for self-sufficiency. Other staple foods produced amounted to only 13.9% of that needed for self-sufficiency. As a result, nearly half of the grain needed by the community was purchased from outside, resulting in very poor regional food security. Clearly, fruit production in this region seriously affects regional food security. Coordination of relationships between rural economic development and regional food security is key for sustainable development of the regional agriculture and economy of west China.     

A comparison of land-sharing and land-sparing strategies for plant richness conservation in agricultural landscapes

Strategies for conserving plant diversity in agroecosystems generally focus on either expanding land area in non-crop habitat or enhancing diversity within crop fields through changes in within-field management practices. In this study, we compare effects on landscape-scale species richness from such land-sharing or land-sparing strategies. We collected data in arable field, grassland, pasture, and forest habitat types (1.6 ha sampled per habitat type) across a 100-km2 region of farmland in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, USA. We fitted species-area relationships (SARs) for each habitat type and then combined extrapolations from the curves with estimates of community overlap to estimate richness in a 314.5-ha landscape. We then modified these baseline estimates by adjusting parameters in the SAR models to compare potential effects of land-sharing and land-sparing conservation practices on landscape richness. We found that species richness of the habitat types showed a strong inverse relationship to the relative land area of each type in the region, with 89 species in arable fields (66.5% of total land area), 153 in pastures (6.7%), 196 in forests (5.2%), and 213 in grasslands (2.9%). Relative to the baseline scenario, major changes in the richness of arable fields produced gains in landscape-scale richness comparable to a conversion of 3.1% of arable field area into grassland habitat. Sensitivity analysis of our model indicated that relative gains from land sparing would be greatest in landscapes with a low amount of non-crop habitat in the baseline scenario, but that in more complex landscapes land sharing would provide greater gains. These results indicate that the majority of plant species in agroecosystems are found in small fragments of non-crop habitat and suggest that, especially in landscapes with little non-crop habitat, richness can be more readily conserved through land-sparing approaches.     

Assessment of the state of agroecosystem sustainability using landscape indicators: a comparative study of three rural areas in Greece

The research was based on a comparative study of three representative rural areas (Dovras, Larissa, and Messapia) in Greece. Remote sensing data were collected (maps, aerial photographs) for the landscape analysis and elaborated using GIS linked with economic and social parameters regarding land use. By using a selected core set of landscape indicators, this research aims at providing a useful tool for assessing agroecosystem management at territorial level and hopefully assist decision-making for the promotion of sustainability. The selected tool showed that the study area of Messapia presented the highest level of environmental sustainability, while the area of Dovras showed the best combination of agricultural productivity and landscape management. Results showed that the ecoregions of Dovras, Larissa, and Messapia presented a landscape composed of important ecological function areas in the percentages of 40%, 15%, and 70%, respectively, and of cultivated areas in the percentages of 55%, 71.19%, and 19.75%, respectively.     

辽宁省农用地质量空间分布格局及影响因素研究

采用GIS技术、地统计学分析和景观生态学方法对辽宁省农用地质量的空间分布规律及其多样性、均匀度、集中度、优势度等进行研究,结果表明：辽宁省农用地质量的区域分异明显,等别表现出由辽西低山丘陵区和辽东山地丘陵区向中部平原区的递增规律。探讨农用地质量空间格局的影响因素,发现农用地自然质量空间分布格局主要受到地带性因素与大尺度的非地带性因素的控制,农用地利用质量和经济质量空间分布格局受到人类活动的影响显著。     

中国乡村城市化过程中的景观生态学问题与对策研究

城市和乡村的发展共同构成了社会-经济-自然复合生态系统的可持续发展,然而长期以来,重城市轻乡村的发展思想导致了城乡二元结构矛盾不断尖锐。随着经济的高速发展和加入WTO后的国际化冲击,未来的10~20年间,中国将进入一个乡村城市化快速发展的时期,这将使得中国本来紧张的人地关系变得更加严重,资源消耗与环境污染问题日益突出,乡村发展将面临更大的挑战,同时也将是中国乡村发展的重要契机。本文依据景观生态学原理与方法,通过研究乡村城市化进程中乡村景观的组合、结构、功能以及变化中存在的问题,提出了城乡协调、全盘布局和保留自身特色等相应的生态规划治理措施和对策,尽可能使乡村景观格局呈现多样性、异质性,并在功能上表现出稳定性和连续性,最终实现城乡景观和谐发展的局面。     

Dynamics and driving forces of agricultural landscapes in Southern Ethiopia – a case study of the Chencha and Arbaminch areas

Agricultural landscapes in Ethiopia have undergone unprecedented changes. The direction of change, however, is unsustainable as manifested in land degradation, biodiversity loss, and low agricultural productivity. The objective of this study is to examine the patterns and trends of agricultural landscape development and responses of the local people within the framework of the dynamics of demography, socioeconomic conditions, politics, and natural resources in the Chencha and Arbaminch areas, Southern Ethiopia, during the last century. Information on cultivated and grazing land areas was acquired by satellite image interpretation. Interviews and group discussions provided important information on agricultural land use systems. A review and an analysis of secondary sources and documents of past studies were also used for trend analysis as a baseline and a supplement to oral history. The results show that cultivated land was expanded by 39% from 1973 until 2006, but per capita farming land holdings decreased enormously. In the same period of time, grassland shrank by 69% thus causing a significant decrease in livestock. Cultivated land scarcity can mostly be related to demographic pressure, which was exacerbated by government policy, land tenure, and the nature of subsistence agriculture. The farmers, however, were resourceful and developed skills over millennia to cope with the problems associated with population density and scarce resources. However, these traditional land use activities and land management practices have been deteriorating recently. Land use planners and environmental managers should take local knowledge and innovation into account in order to make sound decisions for the future.     

1985-2010年南京市耕地变化轨迹及驱动力分析

随着经济的快速发展,城市化程度加剧,南京市的土地利用发生了巨大变化.基于1985-2010年覆盖南京市的Landsat MSS/TM卫星影像,利用最大似然法获取南京市历年土地利用数据,将其归纳为耕地和非耕地2类.基于分类结果,提取并归纳了恒定耕地、恒定非耕地、转变为耕地、转变为非耕地和短暂性耕地5种耕地类型的变化趋势,借助景观水平上的斑块占景观面积的比例以及散布与并列指数来分析5种耕地类型变化趋势的景观格局时空动态,以说明耕地扩张和遗弃的时空轨迹.结果表明：（1） 1985-2010年,耕地面积减少40.42％;（2）恒定耕地面积在方位3所占比例最大,为56.89％,转变为非耕地主要分布在方位1、6和8,揭示了城市扩张的主要方向;（3）恒定耕地类型主要分布于六合区,面积为895.92 km2,转变为非耕地主要分布于江宁区;（4）恒定非耕地集中于市中心附近,而恒定耕地则远离市中心分布;（5）恒定耕地仍占主导地位,转变为非耕地具有较高破碎度.短暂性耕地面积不稳定,较易发生土地撂荒乃至土地退化;（6）人口与产业重心转移、经济发展、政策和城市扩张是显著影响耕地空间格局的关键因素.     

Impacts of policy related to structural adjustment of agriculture on grain supply in China

China's policy on structural adjustment of its agriculture is an effective instrument for increasing agricultural production and developing the rural economy. The policy interventions used included converting cultivated land from growing grain crops to cash crops and increasing the production of meat, eggs and milk. The impacts of these changes on grain supply between 1998 and 2004 are identified and quantified at national and regional levels. The data on cultivated land diverted to other purposes are presented for the benefit of the decision maker. The paper concludes that the policy had significant impacts on China's grain supply, which declined by 14.4% of the total grain output in 1998. However, nearly 40% of the cultivated land at national level could potentially be converted by 2010. Regional disparities in the extent of the reduction in grain supply and in land conversion are highlighted with reference to different economic conditions and policy directions.     

Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios

Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (-16%) and pasture (-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate deviations from the business-as-usual scenario. Given the magnitude of predicted land-use change, any attempts to identify a sustainable future or to predict the effects of climate change will have to take likely land-use changes into account. Econometric models that can simulate land-use change for broad areas with fine resolution are necessary to predict trends in ecosystem service provision and biodiversity persistence.