中国气候变化的科学新认知

了解和认识百年来中国气候发生的变化、引起其变化的驱动因素以及未来的可能变化,可以更好地适应和减缓气候变化。本文综合评估了观测到的中国气候变化事实、中国气候变化的驱动力、中国未来气候变化预估三大方面,分析了气候变暖的趋势、水循环以及降水和冰川变化、极端天气气候事件变化、生物化学循环、海洋和土地覆盖变化及其气候效应以及未来气候变化的特点和趋势等最新科学进展。在中国百年温度趋势、气候系统多气候指标变化特征、极端天气气候事件中的人类活动作用以及气候系统模拟能力等方面的研究有了新的进展。可以看到中国气候变暖趋势持续、大气二氧化碳等长寿命温室气体浓度继续增长、人为强迫影响了多种气候要素在强度和频率的变化,中国陆地生态系统的固碳量增加。本文最后提出未来中国气候变化研究需要进一步加强的问题,包括:中国气候变化中的城市化效应、气候系统内部变率在年代际变化中的作用、气溶胶-云-降雨相互作用的机理、大范围土地利用变化(如大规模生态恢复工程)的气候效应,以及云辐射反馈、海洋环流对气候变化的响应与反馈、气候-碳循环反馈等过程对气候模拟不确定的影响等。     

大城市应对气候变化的可持续发展研究——以上海为例

在全球气候变化背景下,社会城镇规划与自然气候变化之间的关系越发密切,城镇规划体系需要纳入气候变化的影响并考虑适应气候变化的策略。首先以发达国家及世界著名大城市为参考,对美国、德国和日本在应对气候变化的城镇可持续发展规划方面的成功经验和实践措施分别进行了综述和提炼;然后,以上海为例,对照分析了我国大城市在城镇化过程中面临的气候变化挑战及存在的脆弱性,包括城镇发展规划与气候环境的相容性考虑不够、城镇化过程对气候环境的影响缺乏充分论证、城镇基础设施抵御气象灾害的能力较低、气候变化对城镇人体健康的影响未给予高度关注等;最后,指出了我国大城市应对气候变化的城镇可持续发展思路及重点方向,即充分考虑区域气候容量、大力构建生态绿色通风廊道;深入开展城镇功能布局的气候可行性论证和气象灾害风险评估;加强城市气候变化研究和实验,不断更新城市规划设计参数和标准规范;加大对脆弱人群和外来常住人口生命安全和人体健康监测预警;积极完善城镇化适应气候变化的机制等,以期为城镇发展体系的编制和应用提供参考和借鉴。     

气候移民的概念与类型探析

气候变化问题、气候变化及其不利影响所导致的现实或潜在的大量气候移民已成为21世纪人类社会面临的严峻挑战,是现阶段人类社会普遍关注的核心问题之一。通过对社会发展进程中各种主客观因素叠加作用导致的渐变缓发性气候风险、极端突变灾害性气候风险等诸种气候变化现象所导致的气候移民问题的剖析,结合已有的研究文献对历史、现实条件下气候变化导致的气候移民产生的机理与逻辑展开分析,以把握其演变发展趋势。从而对气候移民进行概念上的辨析、梳理和界定,以揭示气候移民的实体内涵、本质特点与根本属性;并依据移民的迁移意愿、迁移时限长短、迁移的空间区域和距离远近、导致气候移民的不同致因对其进行类型上的划分与归类,以期加深我们对气候移民问题的深入理解与认知,更好把握气候移民问题产生的本质与演变发展规律。从而为有效破解各种气候变化现象导致的气候移民难题,化解气候移民面临的各种社会风险,促进社会的良性运行与协调发展做出初步探索。     

Psychological Reactance From Reading Basic Facts on Climate Change: The Role of Prior Views and Political Identification

Scholars continue to search for solutions to shift climate change skeptics’ views on climate science and policy. However, research has shown that certain audiences are resistant to change regarding environmental issues. To explore this issue further, we examine the presence of reactance among different audiences in response to simple, yet prominently used, climate change messages. Our results show that emphasizing the scientific consensus of climate change produces reactance, but only among people who question the existence of climate change. Moreover, adding political identification to the model as an additional moderating variable shows the increases in reactance occur among Republicans who question the existence of climate change. Finally, our results show that reactance to climate change messaging may lead to backfiring effects on important outcomes tied to climate change such as risk perceptions, climate change beliefs, and support for mitigation policies.     

Establishing a measurement,reporting, and verification system for climate finance in post-Paris agreement period

The measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) of climate finance was originated from discussions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It has been one of the key issues of global climate negotiations since 2009 and will continue to be of significant importance in addressing climate change and strengthening international trust. This paper analyses the concept, the objective, and the progress of the MRV of climate finance based on reviews of the latest literature and think-tank reports regarding climate finance regime and MRV. Following the analysis, challenges faced with the MRV of climate finance are illustrated. This paper presents that the comparability of climate finance data needs to be improved due to the variety of methodologies used for disaggregating climate finance. In addition, the integrality of the MRV system of climate finance has been impaired by the lack of feedback mechanism from the recipients to the contributors in reporting system. Furthermore, although accounting system of climate finance has been developing and improving, it remains incapacity in providing accurate data on disbursed climate finance. Responding to the above challenges, this paper proposes the key tasks in establishing a comprehensive MRV system for climate finance at international level. The tasks involve developing a measurement system with consistent data basis and accounting basis, a reporting system with more detailed guidance and standardized formats, as well as a verification mechanism balancing top-down and bottom-up review processes. In the last section, this paper concludes that the establishment of an improved MRV of climate finance requires concerted cooperation and negotiations between developed and developing country Parties under the UNFCCC. As one of the few developing country donors to the Global Environmental Facility (GEF), China is suggested to clarify its propositions as a developing country in aspects such as concept, coverage, and architecture of climate finance and MRV system, and gain bargaining power in improving operating and technical rules of international climate finance regime.     

《巴黎协定》后的气候资金测量、报告和核证体系构建研究

气候资金测量、报告和核证产生于《联合国气候变化框架公约》(简称《公约》)之下,2009年以来一直是全球气候谈判的重点之一,也是未来全球共同应对气候变化和不断增进国际信任的重要环节。《巴黎协定》达成的"每两年通报"的决定,将推动气候资金测量、报告和核证得到不断的加强和完善。本文通过梳理最新的气候资金机制以及测量、报告和核证的文献资料和智库报告,分析了气候资金测量、报告和核证的内涵、目标和最新进展,以及公约框架下面临的挑战。分析指出,目前不同的气候资金统计和核算机构的资金分类标准存在差异,数据可比性有待改善;缺乏从资金上游到下游的反馈机制,影响气候资金测量、报告和核证体系的完整性;气候资金计量体系虽然正在发展和完善之中,但仍然难以提供准确的资金"支付"数据。据此,文章提出了构建综合性的国际气候资金测量、报告和核证体系的重点任务:建立具有统一数据基础和核算口径的气候资金测量体系,建立操作指南更为详细、形式更为标准统一的气候资金报告体系,以及"自上而下"和"自下而上"相结合的气候资金核证机制。最后,文章指出国际气候资金测量、报告和核证体系的构建需要发达国家和发展中国家在坚持公约资金机制的基础上共同参与和协作。作为国际上少数几个向GEF捐资的发展中国家之一,中国在参与过程中应力争体现发展中国家对气候资金性质的主张以及对测量、报告和核证机制的关键概念和范围界定的主张,影响国际气候资金机制的运营规则和技术规则。     

Climate capacity:the measurement for adaptation to climate change

This article proposed the concept of"climate capacity"as a way of measuring human’s adaptiveness to climate change.This article also focused on the related concepts like ecological carrying capacity,water resources carrying capacity,land carrying capacity as well as population carrying capacity.The concept of climate capacity was articulated against a background of global climate and environmental change.Essentially,China’s efforts to adapt to climate change was a matter of improving climate capacity,which is the ecosystem as well as the frequency,the intensity and the scale of human’s social activities that the climatic resources of a particular geographic area were supposed to support.The climate capacity has two components.One is the natural climate capacity,which includes temperature,sunlight,precipitation,extreme climatic events,etc.The other is the derived climate capacity,which includes water resources,land resources,ecological systems,climatic risks,etc.The climate capacity can be developed or be transferred between regions by taking engineering,technology or regime-based adaptive measures.However,these adaptive measures must be implemented under the principle of economic rationalism,ecological integrity,climate protection,and social justice.It is expected that by combining the climate capacity and its threshold value with the assessment of climate change risks,we are able to predict the optimal population carrying capacity and the scale of socioeconomic development,and furthermore,provide policy support for the socioeconomic development strategy and adaptive planning.In the regions with high climate capacity,there is a symbiotic relationship between adaptation and socioeconomic development.But,in the regions with limited climate capacity,irrational development may further damage the environment.Taking the Yangtze River delta,a region with high climate capacity,and a region of Ningxia,a region with limited climate capacity,as illustrative examples,the authors of this article analyzed the policy implications of climate capacity and further made suggestions on the problems of capacitylimited adaptation and development-driven adaptation.This article argued that the concept of climate capacity can not only be used as an analytical instrument of climate change economics,but also it can provide research support for planning regional adaptation and development with climate change impact and risk assessments.     

对当前全球气候变化问题的思考

全球气候变化问题已经超越了一般环境问题的范畴,而成为国际政治经济外交关系的重要考虑因素。随着《京都议定书》的实施以及气候变化问题谈判进程的加快．对我国未来经济社会发展提出了挑战。文章分析认为．要求主要发展中国家承诺减限排义务的压力与日俱增,而我国开始进入工业化中期．应对气候变化问题的能力还比较薄弱。因此．提出应对全球气候变化问题的一些思考：（1）充分认识全球气候变化问题的重要性和严峻性,准确把握国际谈判进程;（2）加快制定适应和减缓气候变化的国家战略。采取适合我国国情的有力措施积极应对气候变暖;（3）加强气候变化领域的能力建设．提高我国参与全球气候变化活动的能力;（4）充分利用国际合作机制,提高我国应对气候变化的技术水平与经济能力。     

The impact of climate change and its uncertainty on carbon storage in Switzerland

Projected future climate change will alter carbon storage in forests, which is of pivotal importance for the national carbon balance of most countries. Yet, national-scale assessments are largely lacking. We evaluated climate impacts on vegetation and soil carbon storage for Swiss forests using a dynamic vegetation model. We considered three novel climate scenarios, each featuring a quantification of the inherent uncertainty of the underlying climate models. We evaluated which regions of Switzerland would benefit or lose in terms of carbon storage under different climates, and which abiotic factors determine these patterns. The simulation results showed that the prospective carbon storage ability of forests depends on the current climate, the severity of the change, and the time required for new species to establish. Regions already prone to drought and heat waves under current climate will likely experience a decrease in carbon stocks under prospective ‘extreme’ climate change, while carbon storage in forests close to the upper treeline will increase markedly. Interestingly, when climate change is severe, species shifts can result in increases in carbon stocks, but when there is only slight climate change, climate conditions may reduce growth of extant species while not allowing for species shifts, thus leading to decreases in carbon stocks.     

Potential of existing policies of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government for implementing adaptation to climate change

The impacts of climate change are apparent in various regions of the world. Even though climate change may have a positive effect, it is anticipated that there will be many severely negative effects on human and natural resources in the future. Therefore, in addition to the need for stronger promotion of mitigation policies, it is urgently necessary to study and implement adaptation policies over the longer term to prepare for the possible negative impact of climate change. To implement climate change adaptation measures rapidly in Japan, it would seem practical and effective to make good use of the various countermeasures already promoted by both the national and the local governments for many sectors such as disaster prevention, environmental management, food production, and protection of the nation’s health. These countermeasures are considered to have potential for effecting climate change adaptation. This study, focusing on adaptation to climate change negative impacts, investigates to what extent the existing policies of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government could contribute to climate change adaptation, based on a comprehensive examination of targeted fields and indicators for which adaptation policies could be pursued. The results showed many of the existing policies could be useful for adaptation to climate change in many sectors. Furthermore, less than half of these policies need to take future climate change into account in order to contribute to climate change adaptation. This study proposes three basic steps that consider future climate change and local governmental propositions for the rapid implementation of adaptation policies in Japan.     

Assessing National Discourse and Local Governance Framing of Climate Change for Adaptation in the United Kingdom

While many national governments struggle to maintain global climate change as a high priority issue, many local governments are taking action to fill the policy gaps. This study examines how local governments across the United Kingdom of Great Britain are reframing climate change. We compiled a dataset of newspaper publications covering climate change over a 10-year timeframe, plus survey and interview responses from local governance practitioners, to identify a shift in national discourse that has changed the priority level of climate change in UK local governance. This paper argues that many local governments are strategically reframing climate change as alternative issues in order to make progress in climate adaptation planning.     

Questioning the Doubt: Climate Skepticism in German Newspaper Reporting on COP17

Despite numerous international studies on climate change, there is skepticism in the media and it is prominent in public opinion polls. This article focuses in particular on the framing of climate skepticism in Germany, a country that, in the main, is said to be convinced about climate change. By using a two-step content analysis of 379 news articles (print and online) we demonstrate that climate skepticism is present in German news media reporting on the 17th Conference of the Parties (COP17) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Durban, South Africa. We identify two overarching skepticism frames: skepticism about the phenomenon of climate change and about climate science. Our analysis further shows that climate skepticism is not exclusive to a specific political ideology, even though a newspaper's ideology may influence how skeptical frames are being evaluated.     

Blogging about Climate Change in Russia: Activism,Scepticism and Conspiracies

The article explores the new media’s role in climate change communication in Russia. By providing an open space for the expression of very diverse points of view, the internet creates a substitute media reality where both climate activists and climate sceptics can question the established discourse. Analysis of 374 entries published on the LiveJournal blogging platform has resulted in the identification of four discursive categories: “conspiracies of climate change,” “climate change impact,” “political games of climate change” and “online (anti-)environmentalism.” Each category demonstrates how the same topic can be framed in very different ways depending on bloggers’ worldview rather than the nature of the discussed environmental problem. The findings also show that the blogs act as “echo-chambers” for both climate deniers and climate activists reinforcing their behold beliefs. Finally, the analysis discovers some parallels with the traditional media coverage in their minimal critique of Russian state policy on climate.     

Climate change perceptions and adaptations of smallholder farmers in Eastern Kenya

Several studies have indicated the importance of understanding farmers’ perceptions of risks associated with climate change, the adaptation strategies they employ and factors that affect adaptive capacity. This study aimed to understand smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change, adaptation strategies and adaptive capacity in the semiarid Matungulu Sub-County, Eastern Kenya. A participatory approach, using three climate roundtables, was conducted to enhance community participation and understanding of climate change issues. The study showed that farmers’ perceptions concerning climate change are influenced by past experiences of weather extremes that have affected production levels and farm incomes. The farmers have made strategic responses to manage risks posed by climate change. However, they face several challenges in adaptation such as inadequate technical knowledge, low financial resources and inadequate land size. Further, the study showed that climate roundtables is a successful participatory approach that can give effective insights for smallholder farmers to understand agricultural vulnerability, climate change and their adaptation strategies.     

National Discussions,Global Repercussions: Ethics in British Newspaper Coverage of Global Climate Negotiations

There is convincing evidence that the media have been responsible for questionable coverage on climate change, which has been blamed for undermining public consensus on the issue. However, less is known about the way in which the media communicate the key values, or ethical dimension, surrounding the debate over climate change and its global effects. It is generally argued that a strong notion of cosmopolitanism rather than narrow national self-interest will be fundamental to the achievement of a comprehensive international agreement on climate change. The media provide a crucial forum for discussing such challenges. The study examines how climate ethics form part of the debate on climate change in three British national newspapers leading up to, during, and following two key United Nations conferences. Through a quantitative and qualitative content analysis of climate change coverage, this article examines how the values of cosmopolitanism and communitarianism underpin the debate on climate ethics in the respective newspapers. This article argues that the possibility of reaching a fair climate agreement partially depends upon the ability of media to inform citizens of the inherent injustices of climate change and the importance of taking bold action. It is concluded that a more cosmopolitan perspective in the media could be useful in helping sway public opinion in favor of effective climate action.     

Constructions of Climate Change on the Radio and in Nepalese Lay Focus Groups

To date analyses of media climate change constructions have mostly focused on coverage in western newspapers. Consideration of coverage in developing countries, and analyses of media constructions alongside local understandings of climate change are comparatively rare. This article provides an analysis of the construction of climate change on Nepalese radio and lay constructions of environment and climate change within the country. Data from a radio program and six focus groups are analyzed. Analysis of the radio program indicated that climate change was portrayed as a certain reality with national impacts caused by the actions of the West. While climate change dominated the radio headlines, in focus groups local environmental problems received far more attention. The paper aims to both inform directions for future climate change communication in Nepal and the wider research agenda.     

气候变化条件下的气候移民问题及对策分析

气候变化及其不利影响所导致的现实或潜在的大量气候移民,成为了21世纪人类社会面临的严峻挑战,正日益受到各国政府和国际社会的高度重视和广泛关注。通过对人类社会现实和历史发展进程中,诸种气候变化形式导致的气候移民现象及其概念的剖析;对气候移民数量规模不断攀升、波及区域持续扩大、临时性迁移向永久性移民持续演变、多种因素叠加交织下气候移民问题日趋复杂化等亟需关注与解决的问题进行了透视。针对气候移民问题,提出了加强国际合作、致力减缓与主动适应并举、在国际社会建立应对政策与治理机制和管理机构、降低气候移民的社会脆弱性等对策建议。以期为有效破解气候移民难题,化解气候移民面临的各种社会风险,促进社会的良性运行与协调发展做出初步探索     

Communicating climate change for adaptation in rural communities: a Pacific study

The academic literature on climate change communications is growing. However, the majority of this literature focuses on the issue of climate change mitigation in a developed country context, and there is little published material regarding communication in a developing country and adaptation context. Similarly, despite community-based approaches to climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction increasing in the Pacific Islands region, there is very limited guidance on how to effectively communicate climate change in a way that enhances people’s resilience. This paper documents the experiences of organisations, including local and international non-government and faith-based organisations, governments, regional technical organisations and donor agencies in communicating climate change for adaptation in the Pacific region. Three key climate change communication challenges are highlighted and suggestions made for overcoming them based on results from interviews, a focus group discussion and an online forum. Finally, recommendations are made for good practice guidance in climate change communication that is empowering and culturally relevant.     

Adaptation planning and the use of climate change projections in local government in England and Germany

Planning for adaptation to climate change is often regarded to be a local imperative and considered to be more effective if grounded on a solid evidence base and recognisant of relevant climate projections. Research has already documented some of the challenges of making climate information usable in decision-making but has not yet sufficiently reflected on the role of the wider institutional and regulatory context. This article examines the impact of the external institutional context on the use and usability of climate projections in local government through an analysis of 44 planning and climate change (adaptation) documents and 54 semi-structured interviews with planners in England and Germany conducted between July 2013 and May 2014. We show that there is little demand for climate projections in local adaptation planning in either country due to existing policy, legal and regulatory frameworks. Local government in England has not only experienced a decline in use of climate projections, but also the waning of the climate change adaptation agenda more widely, amidst changes in the planning and regulatory framework and severe budget cuts. In Germany, spatial planning makes substantial use of past and present climate data, but the strictly regulated nature of planning prevents the use of climate projections, due to their inherent uncertainties. Findings from the two countries highlight that if we are to better understand the usability of climate projections, we need to be more aware of the institutional context within which planning decisions are made. Otherwise we run the risk of continuing to provide tools and information that are of limited use within their intended context.     

Climate Engagement in a Digital Age: Exploring the Drivers of Participation in Climate Discourse Online in the Context of COP21

Various scholars underscore the importance of public engagement with climate change to successfully respond to the challenges of global warming. However, although online media provide various new opportunities to actively engage in climate discourse so far very little is known about the drivers of this form of engagement. Against this background, this study tested a theoretical model on the effects of media and interpersonal communication on participation in climate discourse online using data from a representative online survey of German citizens (n?=?1392) carried out while COP21. Overall, the results show that receiving information on climate change from social media (social networks, Twitter, blogs), active information seeking online and interpersonal conversations about COP21 strongly encourage participation in climate discourse online. Moreover, results provide relevant insights on the role of interest in climate politics, personal issue relevance and climate scepticism as preconditions of communication effects.