Norwegian Meteorological Institute’s real-time dispersion model snap (Severe Nuclear Accident Program): Runs for ETEX and ATMES II experiments with different meteorological input

The Norwegian Meteorological Institute (DNMI) has developed and implemented for operational use a real-time dispersion model Severe Nuclear Accident Program (SNAP) with capability for predicting concentrations and depositions of the radioactive debris from large accidental releases. SNAP has been closely linked to DNMI’s operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models.How good are these predictions? Participation in ETEX has partly answered this question. DNMI used SNAP with LAM50S giving meteorological input for these real-time dispersion calculations. LAM50S Limited Area Model with 50 km grid squareswas DNMI’s operational NWP model in 1994 when ETEX took place.In this article we report on how SNAP performed in the first of the ETEX releases in near-real-time mode, using LAM50S—and in hindcast mode for ATMES II, using “ECMWF 1995: ETEX Data set (ATMES II)”as meteorological input data. These two input data sets came from NWP models with quite different characteristics but with similar resolution in time and space.The results from these dispersion simulations matched closely. Deviations early in the simulation period shrank to insignificant differences later on. Since both input data sets were based on “weather analysis” and had similar resolution in space and time, SNAP described the dispersion of the released material very similar in these two simulations.     

Evaluating the ability of a numerical weather prediction model to forecast tracer concentrations during ETEX 2

In this paper the meteorological processes responsible for transporting tracer during the second ETEX (European Tracer EXperiment) release are determined using the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM). The UM predicted distribution of tracer is also compared with observations from the ETEX campaign. The dominant meteorological process is a warm conveyor belt which transports large amounts of tracer away from the surface up to a height of 4 km over a 36 h period. Convection is also an important process, transporting tracer to heights of up to 8 km. Potential sources of error when using an operational numerical weather prediction model to forecast air quality are also investigated. These potential sources of error include model dynamics, model resolution and model physics. In the UM a semi-Lagrangian monotonic advection scheme is used with cubic polynomial interpolation. This can predict unrealistic negative values of tracer which are subsequently set to zero, and hence results in an overprediction of tracer concentrations. In order to conserve mass in the UM tracer simulations it was necessary to include a flux corrected transport method. Model resolution can also affect the accuracy of predicted tracer distributions. Low resolution simulations (50 km grid length) were unable to resolve a change in wind direction observed during ETEX 2, this led to an error in the transport direction and hence an error in tracer distribution. High resolution simulations (12 km grid length) captured the change in wind direction and hence produced a tracer distribution that compared better with the observations. The representation of convective mixing was found to have a large effect on the vertical transport of tracer. Turning off the convective mixing parameterisation in the UM significantly reduced the vertical transport of tracer. Finally, air quality forecasts were found to be sensitive to the timing of synoptic scale features. Errors in the position of the cold front relative to the tracer release location of only 1 h resulted in changes in the predicted tracer concentrations that were of the same order of magnitude as the absolute tracer concentrations.     

Experimental verification for real-time environmental emergency response system: WSPEEDI by European tracer experiment

Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute has developed an emergency response system WSPEEDI to forecast long-range atmospheric dispersions of radionuclides discharged into the atmosphere. The latest version of WSPEEDI consists of an atmospheric dynamic model MM5 for calculating meteorological fields and a particle random-walk model for atmospheric dispersion. The performance of WSPEEDI was evaluated by data obtained from a field tracer experiment over Europe (ETEX) in this paper. The model validation was done with respect to the following points: (1) the dependence of model accuracy on the temporal and spatial resolutions of the meteorological fields and (2) the superiority of an atmospheric dynamic model over a mass-consistent wind model. Regarding (1), it was shown that the calculation accuracy of the new version with high temporal resolution was improved, especially at the edge of the plume. Moreover, although the increase in horizontal spatial resolution of the old version had no substantial effect on the model performance, increase in horizontal resolution of the new version contributed to the significant improvement of the calculation accuracy. These results showed that the dynamically calculated meteorological field with the spatial resolution of the meso-β–γ scale greatly improved calculation accuracy.     

Sensitivity of the DERMA long-range Gaussian dispersion model to meteorological input and diffusion parameters

The Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA) is described and applied to the first ETEX experiment. By using analysed low-resolution numerical weather-prediction data from the global model of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) as well as higher-resolution data from two versions of the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM), which are operational at the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), the sensitivity of DERMA to the resolution of meteorological data is analysed by comparing DERMA results with concentration measurements. Furthermore, the sensitivity to boundary-layer height and diffusion parameters is studied. These parameters include the critical bulk Richardson number, which is used to estimate the atmospheric boundary-layer height, the horizontal eddy diffusivity and the Lagrangian turbulence time scale. The parameters, which provide the best performance of DERMA, are 0.25 for the critical bulk Richardson number, 6×10³ m² s^-1 for the horizontal eddy diffusivity, and 3 h for the Lagrangian time scale. DERMA is much more sensitive to boundary-layer parameters when using high-resolution DMI-HIRLAM data than when using data of lower resolution from the ECMWF. Finally, the bulk Richardson number method of boundary-layer height calculation applied to DMI-HIRLAM data is verified directly against routine radiosondes released under the tracer gas plume. The boundary-layer height estimates based on analysed NWP model data agree well with observations, and the agreement deteriorates as a function of forecast length.     

Modeling the ETEX plume dispersion with the Canadian emergency response model

The CANadian Emergency Response Model (CANERM) was used to simulate the dispersion resulting from the ETEX release of 23 October 1994. Dispersion simulations were done using three different data sets as meteorological input: the ECMWF/ETEX Data Set, data from the CMC Global Data Assimilation System, and results from a diagnostic execution of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. Comparisons of the dispersion simulations are made with observed surface concentration data provided by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. It is found that CANERM can simulate fairly well the main features of the cloud dispersion. The spatial and temporal evolution of the simulated cloud appear quite plausible, but a tendency to overestimate surface concentrations is apparent. The simulations provide a credible explanation for the two peaks observed at station NL01; the first peak appears to be associated with the passage of the head portion of the plume, while the second seems to be associated with the tail part. Verification scores indicate that the simulations using the ECMWF/ETEX data set and CMC global data are of equivalent quality. However, the simulations obtained using the GEM diagnostic fields are significantly better.     

Comparison of constant volume balloons, model trajectories and tracer transport during ETEX

In the field phases of the European Tracer EXperiment (ETEX), an inert tracer was released for 12 h into the atmosphere and samples taken at several locations downwind. During the same time, several Constant Volume Balloons (CVB) (10 and 6 for ETEX first and second release, respectively) were launched into different altitudes and followed as far as 21–188 km, to indicate the initial dispersion directions of the tracer puff. A model simulating the CVB behaviour in hydrostatic meso-scale model forecasts is applied to ETEX data to demonstrate its capability to predict the tracer puff mean axis over long distances (−2000 km). CVB model results are first compared to air parcels trajectories and 2D (i.e. isentropic, isobaric and isodensity) trajectories. Then they are compared to the measured CVB trajectories and finally to the tracer puff trajectories. As expected, the CVB model and isodensity model trajectories are found to be identical. The 16 CVBs calculated trajectories nearly overlap the real ones over 21–188 km with mean absolute horizontal transport deviations less than 20 km (average value of 8.2 km). The corresponding relative transport deviations are less than 45% with an average value of 20.6%. Better predictions are obtained for the ETEX second release. During the 60 h following ETEX’s first release start, the simulated CVBs are mainly found in the area of the maximum surface concentrations of the released tracer, up to 2000 km. Up to 36 h after ETEX second tracer release start, the simulated CVB trajectories predict well the mean axis of the tracer puff, but failed later.     

Evaluation of the Meteo-France response in ETEX release 1

During ETEX Meteo-France applied part of its emergency response system for critical events developped in the framework of the World Meteorological Organization environmental emergency response program. The atmospheric transport model used to forecast the evolution of a passive tracer is an eulerian model called MEDIA. In real time this model is driven by meteorological data from ARPEGE, the operational numerical weather prediction model available at the Meteo-France operation center. The overall evaluation of the results show that the model can reproduce the cloud displacement, but there exists a stretching in the transport direction. In the ATMES-II phase, the results are closer to the observations when meteorological data from the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecast are used. A simulation using analyzed meteorological data from ARPEGE every 6 h slightly improve the results comparing with the real-time experiment. All the simulations we performed reveal that the quality of the atmospheric transport model is strongly dependent on the quality of the driving numerical weather prediction model.     

Evaluation of trajectories calculated from ecmwf data against constant volume balloon flights during etex

This paper validates trajectories calculated from ECMWF analyses against the tracks of constant volume balloons (CVBs) released during the European tracer experiment (ETEX). The altitudes of the calculated trajectories were adjusted to the altitudes of the respective balloons in short intervals to allow direct comparisons. The agreement between the calculated trajectories and the balloon tracks was very good for the first experiment (individual errors from 1 to 26%, average 15%), and excellent (errors from 2 to 11%, average 6%) for the second one. The agreement for the second experiment was probably partly better because the CVBs travelled above the planetary boundary layer, but the small errors also indicate that the ECMWF fields of the horizontal wind were of exceptionally good quality in the second experiment. This is in sharp contrast to the results of the dispersion models which all failed in the prediction of the perfluorocarbon tracer dispersion for the second experiment. A likely explanation for this is that vertical motions, possibly on small scales, were not correctly captured by the ECMWF analyses, but it is not possible to clarify this with the CVB data.     

Evaluation of a long-range lagrangian dispersion model with ETEX

Performance of a Lagrangian dispersion model was examined in connection with its dependency on the boundary layer modelling and the input data resolution. The European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) data were used as reference. According to the sensitivity analysis of the model performance, the long-range dispersion model with the sparse input data was not noticeably different from that with the finer resolution data. The assumption of the prescribed constant mixing depth did not largely degrade the prediction results as compared with the simulation results with the temporally changing boundary layer. It is, therefore, concluded that the model is practical, considering the limited input data in the operational mode. However, it was also pointed out that the parameterization for the horizontal and vertical diffusion processes used in the present model enhanced the growth of plume. The improvement of input data resolution in time and space caused further dispersion of tracer deterministically. These resulted in the underestimation of the maximum concentration and the unfocussed concentration distribution map although the mean concentration was predicted fairly well.     

A statistical methodology for the evaluation of long-range dispersion models: an application to the ETEX exercise

This paper describes the statistical methodology applied to evaluate the performance of the long-range dispersion models that were used in the modelling activities of ETEX (European Tracer EXperiment). The availability of a large number of models makes this exercise rather unique. These models are used for the practical purpose to quantify the contamination effects over a vast area, following a hypothetical accidental release of harmful material. This makes the quality judgement that could be attributed to the results of each model particularly important.The statistical indicators considered to be the most effective for the evaluation of long-range dispersion models are introduced and commented, with specific examples in the frame of ETEX simulations. The importance of using several indices and critically interpreting the results is discussed.     

Mesoscale influence on long-range transport — evidence from ETEX modelling and observations

During the first European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) tracer gas was released from a site in Brittany, France, and subsequently observed over a range of 2000 km. Hourly measurements were taken at the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI) located at Risø, Denmark, using two measurement techniques. At this location, the observed concentration time series shows a double-peak structure occurring between two and three days after the release. By using the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is developed at the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), simulations of the dispersion of the tracer gas have been performed. Using numerical weather-prediction data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) by DERMA, the arrival time of the tracer is quite well predicted, so also is the duration of the passage of the plume, but the double-peak structure is not reproduced. However, using higher-resolution data from the DMI version of the HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model (DMI-HIRLAM), DERMA reproduces the observed structure very well. The double-peak structure is caused by the influence of a mesoscale anti-cyclonic eddy on the tracer gas plume about one day earlier.     

Validation of the lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART against large-scale tracer experiment data

A comprehensive validation of FLEXPART, a recently developed Lagrangian particle dispersion model based on meteorological data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, is described in this paper. Measurement data from three large-scale tracer experiments, the Cross-Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX), the Across North America Tracer Experiment (ANATEX) and the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) are used for this purpose. The evaluation is based entirely on comparisons of model results and measurements paired in space and time. It is found that some of the statistical parameters often used for model validation are extremely sensitive to small measurement errors and should not be used in future studies. 40 cases of tracer dispersion are studied, allowing a validation of the model performance under a variety of different meteorological conditions. The model usually performs very well under undisturbed meteorological conditions, but it is less skilful in the presence of fronts. The two ETEX cases reveal the full range of the model’s skill, with the first one being among the best cases studied, and the second one being, by far, the worst. The model performance in terms of the statistical parameters used stays rather constant with time over the periods (up to 117 h) studied here. It is shown that the method used to estimate the concentrations at the receptor locations has a significant effect on the evaluation results. The vertical wind component sometimes has a large influence on the model results, but on the average only a slight improvement over simulations which neglect the vertical wind can be demonstrated. Subgrid variability of mixing heights is important and must be accounted for.     

The field campaigns of the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX): overview and results

As part of the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) two successful atmospheric experiments were carried out in October and November, 1994. Perfluorocarbon (PFC) tracers were released into the atmosphere in Monterfil, Brittany, and air samples were taken at 168 stations in 17 European countries for 72 h after the release. Upper air tracer measurements were made from three aircraft. During the first experiment a westerly air flow transported the tracer plume north-eastwards across Europe. During the second release the flow was eastwards. The results from the ground sampling network allowed the determination of the cloud evolution as far as Sweden, Poland and Bulgaria. This demonstrated that the PFT technique can be successfully applied in long-range tracer experiments up to 2000 km. Typical background concentrations of the tracer used are around 5–7 fl ?^-1 in ambient air. Concentrations in the plume ranged from 10 to above 200 fl/?^-1. The tracer release characteristics, the tracer concentrations at the ground and in upper air, the routine and additional meteorological observations at the ground level and in upper air, trajectories derived from constant-level balloons and the meteorological input fields for long-range transport models are assembled in the ETEX database. The ETEX database is accessible via the Internet. Here, an overview is given of the design of the experiment, the methods used and the data obtained.     

Validation of the UK Met. Office’s name model against the ETEX dataset

The ETEX 1 data set has been used to assess the performance of the UK Met Office’s long-range dispersion model NAME. In terms of emergency response modelling the model performed well, successfully predicting the overall spread and timing of the plume across Europe. However, in common with most other models, NAME overpredicted the observed concentrations. This is in contrast with other NAME validation studies which indicate either no significant bias or a tendency to underpredict concentrations. This suggests the reasons for overpredicting are specific to the ETEX situation. Explanations include inadequate vertical diffusion or transport, possible venting by convective activity, and experimental errors. An assessment of a range of advection schemes of varying complexity indicated no clear advantage, at present, in using more sophisticated random walk techniques at long range, a simple diffusion coefficient based scheme providing some of the best results. A brief look is also taken at a simulation of the more problematical ETEX 2 release.     

Three long-range transport models compared to the ETEX experiment: a performance study

For operational or research purposes (dispersion computations of radioactive effluents during nuclear emergency situations, simulations of chemical pollution in the vicinity of thermal power plants), different models of passive dispersion in the atmosphere have been developed at the Environment Department of EDF’s R and D Division. This report presents the comparison of the performances of three such models: DIFTRA (lagrangian puff model, with operational goal), DIFEUL (three dimensional eulerian) and DIFPAR (Monte Carlo particle model) for the simulation of the first ETEX release, an international tracer campaign during which a passive tracer cloud has been followed over Europe. The results obtained in this study give model vs. experience differences of the same order as the model vs. experience differences observed during an international model comparison experiment using data of the Chernobyl release, the ATMES exercise. In addition to the standard statistical scores used in the evaluation of the performances of the transport models two asymmetric scores (in contradistinction with the Figure of Merit in Space) are proposed: “efficiency” and “power”. Their aim is to separate the two manners in which a model may be wrong: by predicting presence of pollutant while none is measured or conversely predicting absence when pollutant is actually detected.     

Bulgarian emergency response models–validation against ETEX first release

In the paper, the performance of two Bulgarian dispersion models is tested against European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) first release data base. The first one is the LED puff model which was the core of the Bulgarian Emergency Response System during all releases of ETEX. The second one is the newly created Eulerian dispersion model EMAP. These models have two important features: they are PC-oriented and they use quite a limited amount of input meteorological information. First, a number of runs with various source configurations are made on meteorological data produced by ECMWF. The aim of these runs is to verify the models’ ability to simulate reliably ETEX first release. To this end, a set of statistical criteria selected in ATMES (Atmospheric Transport Models Evaluation Study, see Klug et al., 1992 are used. The best runs for both models are obtained when the source is presented as a column towering from the ground to heights of 400–700 m. These runs took part in the second phase of ETEX (ETEX-II), the so called ATMES-type exercise where EMAP ranked ninth and LED - fourteenth among 34 models. Here, additional sets of EMAP are presented where in the first run the value of the horizontal diffusion coefficient is varied and in the other runs different meteorological data sets are tested. The results obtained from the first run show that the values of K_h=4–6×10⁴ m² s^-1 produce fields which fit experimental data best. The other sets of runs show that the higher the frequency of the meteorological data, the better the simulation. The results can be improved by linear interpolation of the meteorological parameters with time, the best fitting obtained with interpolation at each time step.     

Validation of the operational emergency response model at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute using data from etex and the chernobyl accident

The Eulerian atmospheric tracer transport model MATCH (Multiscale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry model) has been extended with a Lagrangian particle model treating the initial dispersion of pollutants from point sources. The model has been implemented at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute in an emergency response system for nuclear accidents and can be activated on short notice to provide forecast concentration and deposition fields.The model has been used to simulate the transport of the inert tracer released during the ETEX experiment and the transport and deposition of ¹³⁷Cs from the Chernobyl accident. Visual inspection of the results as well as statistical analysis shows that the extent, time of arrival and duration of the tracer cloud, is in good agreement with the observations for both cases, with a tendency towards over-prediction for the first ETEX release. For the Chernobyl case the simulated deposition pattern over Scandinavia and over Europe as a whole agrees with observations when observed precipitation is used in the simulation. When model calculated precipitation is used, the quality of the simulation is reduced significantly and the model fails to predict major features of the observed deposition field.     

Testing the importance of accurate meteorological input fields and parameterizations in atmospheric transport modelling using dream - validation against ETEX-1

A tracer model, the DREAM, which is based on a combination of a near-range Lagrangian model and a long-range Eulerian model, has been developed. The meteorological meso-scale model, MM5V1, is implemented as a meteorological driver for the tracer model. The model system is used for studying transport and dispersion of air pollutants caused by a single but strong source as, e.g. an accidental release from a nuclear power plant. The model system including the coupling of the Lagrangian model with the Eulerian model are described. Various simple and comprehensive parameterizations of the mixing height, the vertical dispersion, and different meterological input data have been implemented in the combined tracer model, and the model results have been validated against measurements from the ETEX-1 release. Several different statistical parameters have been used to estimate the differences between the parameterizations and meterological input data in order to find the best performing solution.     

Multi-model vs. EPS-based ensemble atmospheric dispersion simulations: A quantitative assessment on the ETEX-1 tracer experiment case

Several techniques have been developed over the last decade for the ensemble treatment of atmospheric dispersion model predictions. Among them two have received most of the attention, the multi-model and the ensemble prediction system (EPS) modeling. The multi-model approach relies on model simulations produced by different atmospheric dispersion models using meteorological data from potentially different weather prediction systems. The EPS-based ensemble is generated by running a single atmospheric dispersion model with the ensemble weather prediction members. In the paper we compare both approaches with the help of statistical indicators, using the simulations performed for the ETEX-1 tracer experiment. Both ensembles are also evaluated against measurement data. Among the most relevant results is that the multi-model median and the mean of EPS-based ensemble produced the best results, hence we consider a combination of multi-model and EPS-based approaches as an interesting suggestion for further research.