Age-structured modeling reveals long-term declines in the natality of western Steller sea lions.

Since the mid-1970s, the western Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus), inhabiting Alaskan waters from Prince William Sound west through the Aleutian Islands, has declined by over 80%. Changing oceanographic conditions, competition from fishing operations, direct human-related mortality, and predators have been suggested as factors driving the decline, but the indirect and interactive nature of their effects on sea lions have made it difficult to attribute changes in abundance to specific factors. In part, this is because only changes in abundance, not changes in vital rates, are known. To determine how vital rates of the western Steller sea lion have changed during its 28-year decline, we first estimated the changes in Steller sea lion age structure using measurements of animals in aerial photographs taken during population surveys since 1985 in the central Gulf of Alaska (CGOA). We then fit an age-structured model with temporally varying vital rates to the age-structure data and to total population and pup counts. The model fits indicate that birth rate in the CGOA steadily declined from 1976 to 2004. Over the same period, survivorship first dropped severely in the early 1980s, when the population collapsed, and then survivorship steadily recovered. The best-fitting model indicates that in 2004, the birth rate in the central Gulf of Alaska was 36% lower than in the 1970s, while adult and juvenile survivorship were close to or slightly above 1970s levels. These predictions and other model predictions concerning population structure match independent field data from mark-recapture studies and photometric analyses. The dominant eigenvalue for the estimated 2004 Leslie matrix is 1.0014, indicating a stable population. The stability, however, depends on very high adult survival, and the shift in vital rates results in a population that is more sensitive to changes in adult survivorship. Although our modeling analysis focused exclusively on the central Gulf of Alaska, the western Gulf of Alaska and eastern Aleutians show a similar pattern of declining pup fraction with no increase in the juvenile, or pre-breeding, fraction. This suggests that declining birth rate may be a problem for western Steller sea lions across the Gulf of Alaska and into the Aleutian Islands.     

Associations between the Alaska Steller sea lion decline and commercial fisheries.

The Steller sea lion (SSL) population in Alaska was listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1990. At that time, several procedural restrictions were placed on the commercial fisheries of the region in an effort to reduce the potential for human-induced mortality on sea lions. Several years have elapsed since these restrictions were put into place, and questions about their efficacy remain. In an effort to determine whether or not fisheries management measures have helped the SSL population to recover, estimates of the fishing activity of the Bering Sea/Gulf of Alaska commercial fisheries in the vicinity of individual SSL rookeries and SSL population trends at those rookeries were made using data from the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Fisheries Observer Program and Steller Sea Lion Adult Count Database. Fisheries data from 1976-2000 were analyzed in relation to SSL population counts from 1956-2001 at 32 rookeries from the endangered western stock. Linear regression on the principal components of the fisheries data show that a positive correlation exists between several metrics of historical fishing activity and the SSL population decline. The relationship is less consistent after 1991, supporting a hypothesis that management measures around some of the rookeries have been effective in moderating the localized effects of fishing activity on SSL.     

Effects of Trophy Hunting on Lion and Leopard Populations in Tanzania

Abstract: Tanzania holds most of the remaining large populations of African lions (Panthera leo) and has extensive areas of leopard habitat (Panthera pardus), and both species are subjected to sizable harvests by sport hunters. As a first step toward establishing sustainable management strategies, we analyzed harvest trends for lions and leopards across Tanzania's 300,000 km² of hunting blocks. We summarize lion population trends in protected areas where lion abundance has been directly measured and data on the frequency of lion attacks on humans in high‐conflict agricultural areas. We place these findings in context of the rapidly growing human population in rural Tanzania and the concomitant effects of habitat loss, human‐wildlife conflict, and cultural practices. Lion harvests declined by 50% across Tanzania between 1996 and 2008, and hunting areas with the highest initial harvests suffered the steepest declines. Although each part of the country is subject to some form of anthropogenic impact from local people, the intensity of trophy hunting was the only significant factor in a statistical analysis of lion harvest trends. Although leopard harvests were more stable, regions outside the Selous Game Reserve with the highest initial leopard harvests again showed the steepest declines. Our quantitative analyses suggest that annual hunting quotas be limited to 0.5 lions and 1.0 leopard/1000 km² of hunting area, except hunting blocks in the Selous Game Reserve, where harvests should be limited to 1.0 lion and 3.0 leopards/1000 km².     

Population trends of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) with respect to remote sensing measures of chlorophyll-a in critical habitat

The recovery plan for Steller sea lions (SSL; Eumetopias jubatus) suggests critical habitat should be enhanced to incorporate the spatio-temporal variation in dynamic oceanographic features that influence the prey and survival of SSL. It is necessary, therefore, to determine which features affect SSL. Demographics for sub-regions of the endangered, western stock of SSL were examined with respect to corresponding average, maximum, and variance of chlorophyll-a data (SeaWIFS), a proxy for primary productivity. Overall, SSL trends (2000–2008) and pup productivity (1999–2009) were related to maximum values of chl-a in critical habitat. Additionally, conditions in critical habitat appeared worse in areas of decline (i.e., dispersed patterns of chl-a hotspots and greater distances from SSL sites to productive areas). Although there may be a low feasibility of mitigating the effects of dynamic features on the recovery of SSL, the interactive effects of primary productivity and other stressors should be investigated for safeguarding their prey.     

Sanitary felling of Norway spruce due to spruce bark beetles in Slovenia: A model and projections for various climate change scenarios

A model is presented to predict sanitary felling of Norway spruce (Picea abies) due to spruce bark beetles (Ips typographus, Pityogenes chalcographus) in Slovenia according to different climate change scenarios. The model incorporates 21 variables that are directly or indirectly related to the dependent variable, and that can be arranged into five groups: climate, forest, landscape, topography, and soil. The soil properties are represented by 8 variables, 4 variables define the topography, 4 describe the climate, 4 define the landscape, and one additional variable provides the quantity of Norway spruce present in the model cell. The model was developed using the M5′ model tree. The basic spatial unit of the model is 1 km², and the time resolution is 1 year. The model evaluation was performed by three different measures: (1) the correlation coefficient (51.9%), (2) the Theil's inequality coefficient (0.49) and (3) the modelling efficiency (0.32). Validation of the model was carried out by 10-fold cross-validation. The model tree consists of 28 linear models, and model was calculated for three different climate change scenarios extending over a period until 2100, in 10-year intervals. The model is valid for the entire area of Slovenia; however, climate change projections were made only for the Maribor region (596 km²). The model assumes that relationships among the incorporated factors will remain unchanged under climate change, and the influence of humans was not taken into account. The structure of the model reveals the great importance of landscape variables, which proved to be positively correlated with the dependent variable. Variables that describe the water regime in the model cell were also highly correlated with the dependent variable, with evapotranspiration and parent material being of particular importance. The results of the model support the hypothesis that bark beetles do greater damage to Norway spruce artificially planted out of its native range in Slovenia, i.e., lowlands and soils rich in N, P, and K. The model calculation for climate change scenarios in the Maribor region shows an increase in sanitary felling of Norway spruce due to spruce bark beetles, for all scenarios. The model provides a path towards better understanding of the complex ecological interactions involved in bark beetle outbreaks. Potential application of the results in forest management and planning is discussed.     

Enchytraeid population dynamics: Resource limitation and size-dependent mortality

Enchytraeids are regarded as keystone soil organisms in forest ecosystems. Their abundance and biomass fluctuate widely. Predicting the consequences of anthropogenic disturbances requires an understanding of the mechanisms underlying enchytraeid population dynamics. Here I develop a simple model, which predicts that the type of dynamics is controlled by resource input rate. If fungal resource input is a discrete event once a year, an exponential growth phase is followed by starvation and sharp decline of enchytraeid abundance. Model simulations with three different forcing functions were compared to field data. Initial parameter values were obtained from various independent sources, and parameters were estimated by minimizing the residual sum of squares. The best fitting model with resource addition once a year explained 39% of the variation in enchytraeid biomass over an 8-year study period. Further, variation in rainfall explained 59% of the variation in R² of the exponential phase models, which is also an index of the stability of population size-structure. The results emphasize the importance of resource limitation for enchytraeid population dynamics and support the hypothesis that the mortality during the decline phase is size-dependent.     

Modeling the Effects of Trophy Selection and Environmental Disturbance on a Simulated Population of African Lions

Abstract:  Tanzania is a premier destination for trophy hunting of African lions (Panthera leo) and is home to the most extensive long-term study of unhunted lions. Thus, it provides a unique opportunity to apply data from a long-term field study to a conservation dilemma: How can a trophy-hunted species whose reproductive success is closely tied to social stability be harvested sustainably? We used an individually based, spatially explicit, stochastic model, parameterized with nearly 40 years of behavioral and demographic data on lions in the Serengeti, to examine the separate effects of trophy selection and environmental disturbance on the viability of a simulated lion population in response to annual harvesting. Female population size was sensitive to the harvesting of young males (≥3 years), whereas hunting represented a relatively trivial threat to population viability when the harvest was restricted to mature males (≥6 years). Overall model performance was robust to environmental disturbance and to errors in age assessment based on nose coloration as an index used to age potential trophies. Introducing an environmental disturbance did not eliminate the capacity to maintain a viable breeding population when harvesting only older males, and initially depleted populations recovered within 15–25 years after the disturbance to levels comparable to hunted populations that did not experience a catastrophic event. These results are consistent with empirical observations of lion resilience to environmental stochasticity .     

Contrast in the importance of arrow squid as prey of male New Zealand sea lions and New Zealand fur seals at The Snares,subantarctic New Zealand

New Zealand sea lions (Phocarctos hookeri) are threatened by incidental bycatch in the trawl fishery for southern arrow squid (Nototodarus sloanii). An overlap between the fishery and foraging sea lions has previously been interpreted as one piece of evidence supporting resource competition for squid. However, there is currently no consensus about the importance of squid in the diet of New Zealand sea lions. Therefore, we investigated this importance independently of spatial and temporal differences in squid availability through a simultaneous study with sympatric New Zealand fur seals (Arctocephalus forsteri), a species known to target arrow squid. Diet sampling at The Snares (48°01′S 166°32′E), subantarctic New Zealand, in February 2012 coincided with peak annual catch in the nearby squid fishery. Diets were deduced by analyses of diagnostic prey remains from scats (faeces) and casts (regurgitations). The contribution of each prey species to the diet was quantified using the per cent index of relative importance (% IRI) that combined frequency of occurrence, mass and number of prey items. Arrow squid was a minor component in sea lion scats (2 % IRI), and none was found in their casts. In contrast, arrow squid was the major component in fur seal scats and casts (93 and 99 % IRI, respectively). This study found that New Zealand sea lions ate minimal squid at a time when squid was clearly available as evidenced by the diet of New Zealand fur seals; hence, there was no indication of resource competition between sea lions and the squid fishery.     

Predation on walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) eggs in the western Gulf of Alaska: the roles of vertebrate and invertebrate predators

Estimates were made of the predation rate upon eggs of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in Shelikof Strait in the western Gulf of Alaska by midwater and near-bottom fish and invertebrate predators during April 1990. Adult and juvenile walleye pollock were the dominant (99% of total abundance) planktivores collected in midwater samples. Based on visual inspection of stomach contents, a high percentage of the sampled fish were found to have consumed pollock eggs. Daily egg consumption by older age groups of walleye pollock was estimated to be <1% of the eggs available at all sampling locations. The only other fishes found to consume pollock eggs were flatfishes collected in bottom trawls but their abundances and egg consumption were very low. Gammarid and hyperiid amphipods were important invertebrate predators on eggs in the water column, as determined by immunoassays using antibodies developed specifically to ascertain the presence of pollock egg-yolk protein. Decapod shrimp showed a high proportion of positive assays in near-bottom collections. Invertebrate predators may have consumed up to 4% of the total number of eggs available in the water column, but <1% of the total near the bottom on a daily basis. Although we were not able to account for the entire daily egg mortality estimated for this stock, our method of using a combination of techniques is promising in terms of future attempts at estimating total predation mortality.     

How sensitive are elasticities of long-run stochastic growth to how environmental variability is modelled?

A variable environment leaves a signature in a population's dynamics. Deriving statistical and mathematical models of how environmental variability affects population projections has - in the wake of reports of substantial climatic fluctuations - received much recent attention. If the model changes, then so too does the population projection. This is because a different model of environmental variability changes estimates of long-run stochastic growth, which is a function of demographic rates and their temporal sequence. Decomposing elasticities of long-run stochastic growth into constituent parts can assess the relative influence of different components. Here, we investigate the consequences of changing the environmental state definition, and therefore altering the shape of demographic rate distributions and their temporal sequence, by using age-structured matrix models to project vertebrate populations into the future under a range of environmental scenarios. The identity of the most influential demographic rate was consistent among all approaches that perturbed only the mean, but was not when only the variance was perturbed. Furthermore, the influence of each demographic rate fluctuated among projections by up to factors of six and two for changes to the variance and mean, respectively. These changes in influence depend in part upon how environmental variability - in particular, the color of environmental noise - is incorporated. In the light of predictions of increasing climatic variability in the future, these results suggest caution when drawing quantitative conclusions from stochastic population projections.     

A parsimonious optimal foraging model explaining mortality patterns in Serengeti wildebeest

Based on data collected over 24 years in the Serengeti in Tanzania, Sinclair and Arcese (1995) indicated that the sensitivity of blue wildebeest Connochaetes taurinus to predation risk by lions Panthera leo may cause them to change habitats between open (low risk) and wooded (risky) habitats. They found that, in poor rainfall years, predators kill wildebeest that are in better condition than those that die of natural causes. In good rainfall years, predators kill wildebeest that are in worse condition than those that die of natural causes. Sinclair and Arcese (1995) proposed the “predation-sensitive food” hypothesis. This hypothesis suggests that, as food becomes limiting, animals take greater risks to obtain more food, and some of these animals are killed. I propose a more parsimonious hypothesis based on the marginal value theorem that is consistent with the observations made by Sinclair and Arcese (1995). Wildebeest follow a single decision rule in good and poor rainfall years, viz. move when foraging elsewhere increases your rate of intake of nutritious food. Similarly, predators follow a single decision rule in good and poor rainfall years, viz. take the prey item that maximizes the intake of energy per unit effort expended. This parsimonious model does not require differences in predator sensitivity as required by Sinclair and Arcese's (1995) model. I indicate ways in which my model can be falsified.     

Estimating Sustainable Bycatch Rates for California Sea Lion Populations in the Gulf of California

Abstract:  Commercial and subsistence fisheries pressure is increasing in the Gulf of California, Mexico. One consequence often associated with high levels of fishing pressure is an increase in bycatch of marine mammals and birds. Fisheries bycatch has contributed to declines in several pinniped species and may be affecting the California sea lion ( Zalophus californianus ) population in the Gulf of California. We used data on fisheries and sea lion entanglement in gill nets to estimate current fishing pressure and fishing rates under which viable sea lion populations could be sustained at 11 breeding sites in the Gulf of California. We used 3 models to estimate sustainable bycatch rates: a simple population-growth model, a demographic model, and an estimate of the potential biological removal. All models were based on life history and census data collected for sea lions in the Gulf of California. We estimated the current level of fishing pressure and the acceptable level of fishing required to maintain viable sea lion populations as the number of fishing days (1 fisher/boat setting and retrieving 1 day's worth of nets) per year. Estimates of current fishing pressure ranged from 101 (0–405) fishing days around the Los Machos breeding site to 1887 (842–3140) around the Los Islotes rookery. To maintain viable sea lion populations at each site, the current level of fishing permissible could be augmented at some sites and should be reduced at other sites. For example, the area around San Esteban could support up to 1428 (935–2337) additional fishing days, whereas fishing around Lobos should be reduced by at least 165 days (107–268). Our results provide conservation practitioners with site-specific guidelines for maintaining sustainable sea lion populations and provide a method to estimate fishing pressure and sustainable bycatch rates that could be used for other marine mammals and birds .     

A process-based population dynamics model to explore target and non-target impacts of a biological control agent

The risks and benefits associated with efforts to control invasive alien species using classical biological control are being subjected to increasing scrutiny. A process-based population dynamics model was developed to explore the interactions between a folivorous biological control agent, Cleopus japonicus, and its plant host Buddleja davidii. The model revealed that climate could have a significant impact upon the interactions between B. davidii and C. japonicus. At the coolest sites, the impact of C. japonicus on B. davidii was slowed, but it was still eventually capable of controlling populations of B. davidii. At the warmer sites where both B. davidii and C. japonicus grew faster, B. davidii succumbed rapidly to weevil damage. We hypothesise that barring an encounter with a natural enemy, C. japonicus will eventually be able to provide sustained control B. davidii throughout the North Island of New Zealand. The model scenarios illustrate the potential for the C. japonicus population to attain high densities rapidly, and to defoliate patches of B. davidii, creating the potential for spill-over feeding on non-target plants. The potential magnitude of this threat will depend partly on the climate suitability for C. japonicus, the pattern by which it migrates in response to a reduction in the available leaf resource, and the suitability of non-target plants as hosts. In all migration scenarios considered, the pattern of population growth and resource consumption by C. japonicus was exponential, with a strong tendency toward complete utilisation of resource patches more quickly at the warmer compared to colder sites. In addition to providing some useful hypotheses about the effects of climate on the biological control system, and the non-target risks, it also provides some insight into the mechanisms by which climate affects the system.     

The Reliability of Using Population Viability Analysis for Risk Classification of Species

I examine whether or not it is appropriate to use extinction probabilities generated by population viability analyses, based on best estimates for model parameters, as criteria for listing species in Red Data Book categories as recently proposed by the World Conservation Union. Such extinction probabilities are influenced by how accurately model parameters are estimated and by how accurately the models depict actual population dynamics. I evaluate the effect of uncertainty in parameter estimation through simulations. Simulations based on Steller sea lions were used to evaluate bias and precision in estimates of probability of extinction and to consider the performance of two proposed classification schemes. Extinction time estimates were biased (because of violation of the assumption of stable age distribution) and underestimated the variability of probability of extinction for a given time (primarily because of uncertainty in parameter estimation). Bias and precision in extinction probabilities are important when these probabilities are used to compare the risk of extinction between species. Suggestions are given for population viability analysis techniques that incorporate parameter uncertainty. I conclude that testing classification schemes with simulations using quantitative performance objectives should precede adoption of quantitative listing criteria.     

Efficacy of Two Lion Conservation Programs in Maasailand,Kenya

Lion (Panthera leo) populations are in decline throughout most of Africa. The problem is particularly acute in southern Kenya, where Maasai pastoralists have been spearing and poisoning lions at a rate that will ensure near term local extinction. We investigated 2 approaches for improving local tolerance of lions: compensation payments for livestock lost to predators and Lion Guardians, which draws on local cultural values and knowledge to mitigate livestock‐carnivore conflict and monitor carnivores. To gauge the overall influence of conservation intervention, we combined both programs into a single conservation treatment variable. Using 8 years of lion killing data, we applied Manski's partial identification approach with bounded assumptions to investigate the effect of conservation treatment on lion killing in 4 contiguous areas. In 3 of the areas, conservation treatment was positively associated with a reduction in lion killing. We then applied a generalized linear model to assess the relative efficacy of the 2 interventions. The model estimated that compensation resulted in an 87–91% drop in the number of lions killed, whereas Lion Guardians (operating in combination with compensation and alone) resulted in a 99% drop in lion killing. Eficacia de Dos Programas de Conservación de Leones en Maasailand, Kenia     

Exploring the potential of otolith microchemistry to enhance diet analysis in pinnipeds

Increasing the scope and accuracy of information about pinniped diets obtainable from non-invasive techniques is increasingly important, particularly in cases where pinniped species are threatened or endangered. This study is the first to explore the potential for using elemental analysis of the otoliths found in scat to enhance the information available for diet analyses. We investigated the effects of pinniped digestion on otolith microchemistry using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS). We compared the elements contained in the edges (adult stage) and cores (larval/juvenile stage) of otoliths from Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii), Atka mackerel (Pleurogrammus monopterygius), and Walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) recovered from the scat of captive Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) to elements in a sample of pristine (undigested) otoliths. We found that digestion had a significant effect on four of the six sampled combinations of species and otolith region (herring edges and cores, mackerel edges, and pollock cores), and that Rb most frequently showed significant differences in concentration after digestion. We could significantly discriminate among species of both pristine and digested otoliths using either otolith edges or cores with the elements Ba, Rb, Sr, Y, and Mg. When compared to previously identified digested otoliths, unknown samples of the three species of digested otoliths could be discriminated with 55–100% accuracy depending on species and otolith region. When compared to a library of previously identified pristine and digested otoliths, unknown samples of digested otoliths could be discriminated to species with 65–88% accuracy. When the group of unknown digested otoliths was compared to known pristine otoliths, discrimination ranged from 45 to 65%. These results indicate that elemental analysis could be used to supplement visual identification of otoliths from scat. However, further research is required to determine whether elemental analysis of digested otoliths could be useful for prey fish population studies.     

Alimentary niche partitioning in the Galapagos sea lion, Zalophus wollebaeki

Sea lions are generally considered opportunistic feeders. However, studies from different areas suggest their diet consists mostly of four to five types of prey. Previous studies in Galapagos sea lions have identified at least three feeding strategies for this species, suggesting diversification of their diet. Diet diversification is favored in organisms with relatively high trophic position and subject to high intra-specific and low inter-specific competition. Zalophus wollebaeki meet these criteria as the only pinniped on San Cristobal Island, where three sea lion rookeries are located within 11 km: a distance considerably shorter than their 41 km foraging range. To measure the degree of diet diversification, we used scats and stable isotope analyses. A total of 270 scat samples from lactating females and 142 fur samples from sea lion pups were collected during the breeding season 2006. The scat analysis identified distinct diets among rookeries, with minimal trophic overlap (Cλ = 0.19), a trophic level TL = 4.5 (secondary–tertiary carnivore), and trophic breadth of a specialist predator (B _i  = 0.37). The mean δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C values were 13.07 ± 0.52 and −16.34 ± 0.37, respectively. No significant difference was found in the δ¹⁵N values from the sea lion rookeries, but differences were found inter- and intra-population in δ¹³C values for pups from different groups (ANOVA P < 0.05). Our results indicate that diet diversification is present in the Galapagos sea lion and may play important role to the survival of the species in a habitat where pinniped populations are limited.     

Influence of low and decreasing food levels on Daphnia-algal interactions: Numerical experiments with a new dynamic energy budget model

Based on numerical experiments with a new physiologically structured population model we demonstrate that predator physiology under low food and under starving conditions can have substantial implications for population dynamics in predator-prey interactions. We focused on Daphnia-algae interactions as model system and developed a new dynamic energy budget (DEB) model for individual daphnids. This model integrates the κ-rule approach common to net assimilation models into a net-production model, but uses a fixed allocation of net-productive energy in juveniles. The new DEB-model agrees well with the results of life history experiments with Daphnia. Compared to a pure κ-rule model the new allocation scheme leads to significant earlier maturation at low food levels and thus is in better agreement with the data. Incorporation of the new DEB-model into a physiologically structured population model using a box-car elevator technique revealed that the dynamics of Daphnia-algae interactions are highly sensitive to the assumptions on the energy allocation of juveniles under low food conditions. Additionally we show that also other energy allocation rules of our DEB-model concerning decreasing food levels and starving conditions at the individual level have strong implications for Daphnia-algae interactions at the population level. With increasing carrying capacity of algae a stable equilibrium with coexistence of Daphnia occurs and algae shifts to limit cycles. The amplitudes of the limit cycles increase with increasing percentage of sustainable weight loss. If a κ-rule energy allocation is applied to juveniles, the stable equilibrium occurs for a much narrower range of algal carrying capacities, the algal concentration at equilibrium is about 2 times larger, and the range of algae carrying capacities at which daphnids become extinct extends to higher carrying capacities than in the new DEB-model. Because predator-prey dynamics are very sensitive to predator physiology under low food and starving conditions, empirical constraints of predator physiology under these conditions are essential when comparing model results with observations in laboratory experiments or in the field.     

Effects of local fisheries and ocean productivity on the northeastern Ionian Sea ecosystem

To better understand the effects of fisheries and ocean productivity on the northeastern Ionian Sea we constructed an Ecopath with Ecosim model with 22 functional groups. Data on biomass, production/biomass, consumption/biomass, and diet for each group were estimated or extrapolated from the literature. Fisheries landings and discards were also included. Temporal trajectories were simulated using Ecosim. The model was fitted with time-series data for the most important groups from 1964 to 2006. Simulations highlighted a decline of top predators and of most of the commercial species since the late 1970s. The model shows that the decline of fish resources was mainly caused by an intensive fishing pressure that occurred in the area until the end of the 1990s and also by changes in primary production that impacted the trajectories of the main functional groups. In particular, simulated changes through time in PP impacted the abundance trends of all the commercial species, showing a cascade-up effect through the ecosystem. The application of Ecopath with Ecosim was a useful tool for understanding the trends of the main functional groups of the northeastern Ionian Sea. The model underlined that management actions are needed to restore and protect target species including marine mammals, pelagic and demersal fishes. In particular, measures to reduce overfishing, illegal fishing activities and to respect existing legislations are in need. Moreover, the adoption of marine protected areas could be an effective management measure to guarantee prey survival and to sustain marine predators.     

Head start: Australian sea lion pups gain experience of adult foraging grounds before weaning

The extended lactation period of the Australian sea lion Neophoca cinerea is suggested to provide additional time for offspring to achieve nutritional independence. We examine the dive and movement development of pups at two age classes (6?C10?months) from two colonies (Lilliput and Olive Islands) in South Australia using archival GPS and time-depth recorders to investigate the degree of overlap with maternal home range. Older pups from Lilliput travelled significantly further and spent more time at sea than younger pups. At Olive Island, there was a similar increase in distance travelled and time spent at sea with age. Pups at both colonies started occupying adult female home range at 6?months. Australian sea lion pups can explore adult foraging habitat at least 8?months prior to weaning, allowing them to learn the location of suitable habitat and the skills required to hunt successfully.