Projected Climate Change Effects on Winterkill in Shallow Lakes in the Northern United States

2 was obtained from the output of the Canadian Climate Center General Circulation Model. To illustrate the effect of projected climate change on lake DO characteristics, we present herein DO information simulated, respectively, with inputs of past climate conditions (1961–1979) and with a projected 2 × CO₂ climate scenario, as well as differences of those values. Specific parameters obtained were minimum under-ice and lake bottom DO concentration in winter, duration of under-ice anoxic conditions (<0.1 mg/liter) and low DO conditions (<3 mg/liter), and percentage of anoxic and low DO lake volumes during the ice cover period. Under current climate conditions winterkill occurs typically in shallow eutrophic lakes of the northern contiguous United States. Climate warming is projected to eliminate winterkill in these lakes. This would be a positive effect of climate warming. Fish species under ice may still experience periods of stress and zero growth due to low DO (<3 mg/liter) conditions under projected climate warming.     

Lake Temperature and Ice Cover Regimes in the Alaskan Subarctic and Arctic: Integrated Monitoring,Remote Sensing,and Modeling1

Arp, C.D., B.M. Jones, M. Whitman, A. Larsen, and F.E. Urban, 2010. Lake Temperature and Ice Cover Regimes in the Alaskan Subarctic and Arctic: Integrated Monitoring, Remote Sensing, and Modeling. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(4): 777-791. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00451.x Abstract: Lake surface regimes are fundamental attributes of lake ecosystems and their interaction with the land and atmosphere. High latitudes may be particularly sensitive to climate change, however, adequate baselines for these lakes are often lacking. In this study, we couple monitoring, remote sensing, and modeling techniques to generate baseline datasets of lake surface temperature and ice cover in the Alaskan Subarctic and Arctic. No detectable trends were observed during this study period, but a number of interesting patterns were noted among lakes and between regions. The largest Arctic lake was relatively unresponsive to air temperature, while the largest Subarctic lake was very responsive likely because it is fed by glacial runoff. Mean late summer water temperatures were higher than air temperatures with differences ranging from 1.7 to 5.4°C in Subarctic lakes and from 2.4 to 3.2°C in Arctic lakes. The warmest mean summer water temperature in both regions was in 2004, with the exception of Subarctic glacially fed lake that was highest in 2005. Ice-out timing had high coherence within regions and years, typically occurring in late May in Subarctic and in early-July in Arctic lakes. Ice-on timing was more dependent on lake size and depth, often varying among lakes within a region. Such analyses provide an important baseline of lake surface regimes at a time when there is increasing interest in high-latitude water ecosystems and resources during an uncertain climate future.     

Integrating limnological characteristics of high mountain lakes into the landscape of a natural area

A general conceptual watershed-lake model of the complex interactions among climatic conditions, watershed location and characteristics, lake morphology, and fish predation was used to evaluate limnological characteristics of high mountain lakes. Our main hypothesis was that decreasing elevation in mountainous terrain corresponds to an increase in diversity of watershed size and lake area, depth, temperature, nutrient concentrations, and productivity. A second hypothesis was that watershed location and aspect relative to climatic gradients within mountainous terrain influences the limnological characteristics of the lakes. We evaluated these hypotheses by examining watershed location, aspect and size; lake morphology; water quality; and phytoplankton and zooplankton community characteristics among high mountain forest and subalpine lakes in Mount Rainier National Park. Although many of the comparisons between all forest and subalpine lakes were statistically insignificant, the results revealed trends that were consistent with our hypotheses. The forest lake group included more lakes with larger watersheds, larger surface areas, greater depths, higher concentrations of nutrients, and higher algal biovolumes than did the group of subalpine lakes. Deep lakes, which were mostly of the forest lake type, exhibited thermal stratification and relatively high values of some of the water-quality variables near the lake bottoms. However, the highest near-surface water temperatures and phytoplankton densities and the taxonomic structures of the phytoplankton and zooplankton assemblages were more closely related to geographical location, which corresponded to a west-east climate gradient in the park, than to lake type. Some crustacean and rotifer taxa, however, were limited in distribution by lake type. Fish predation did not appear to play an important role in the structure of the crustacean zooplankton communities at the genus level with the exception of Mowich Lake, where crustacean taxa were absent from the zooplankton community. This was the only lake inhabited by a true zooplanktivourous species of fish.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi-stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro-scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from -1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April-September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non-firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter-dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.     

Effect of Climate Warming and Drought on Urban Stream Temperatures in a Semiarid,Seasonal System

Stream temperatures are key indicators for aquatic ecosystem health, and are of particular concern in highly seasonal, water‐limited regions such as California that provide sensitive habitat for cold‐water species. Yet in many of these critical regions, the combined impacts of a warmer climate and urbanization on stream temperatures have not been systematically studied. We examined recent changes in air temperature and precipitation, including during the recent extreme drought, and compared the stream temperature responses of urban and nonurban streams under four climatic conditions and the 2008–2018 period. Metrics included changes in the magnitude and timing of stream temperatures, and the frequency of exceedance of ecologically relevant thresholds. Our results showed that minimum and average daily air temperatures in the region have increased by >1°C over the past 20 years, warming both urban and nonurban streams. Stream temperatures under drought warmed most (1°C–2°C) in late spring and early fall, effectively lengthening the summer warm season. The frequency of occurrence of periods of elevated stream temperatures was greater during warm climate conditions for both urban and nonurban streams, but urban streams experienced extreme conditions 1.5–2 times as often as nonurban streams. Our findings underscore that systematically monitoring and managing urban stream temperatures under climate change and drought is critically needed for seasonal, water‐limited urban systems.     

A CALIBRATION PROCEDURE USING TOPMODEL TO DETERMINE SUITABILITY FOR EVALUATING POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON WATER YIELD1

ABSTRACT: An evaluation was conducted on three forested upland watersheds in the northeastern U.S. to test the suitability of TOPMODEL for predicting water yield over a wide range of climatic scenarios. The analysis provides insight of the usefulness of TOPMODEL as a predictive tool for future assessments of potential long-term changes in water yield as a result of changes in global climate. The evaluation was conducted by developing a calibration procedure to simulate a range of climatic extremes using historical temperature, precipitation, and streamfiow records for years having wet, average, and dry precipitation amounts from the Leading Ridge (Pennsylvania), Fernow (West Virginia), and Hubbard Brook (New Hampshire) Experimental Watersheds. This strategy was chosen to determine whether the model could be successfully calibrated over a broad range of soil moisture conditions with the assumption that this would be representative of the sensitivity necessary to predict changes in streamfiow under a variety of climate change scenarios. The model calibration was limited to a daily time step, yet performed reasonably well for each watershed. Model efficiency, a least squares measure of how well a model performs, averaged between 0.64 and 0.78. A simple test of the model whereby daily temperatures were increased by 1.7°C, resulted in annual water yield decreases of 4 to 15 percent on the three watersheds. Although these results makes the assumption that the model components adequately describe the system, this version of TOPMODEL is capable to predict water yield impacts given subtle changes in the temperature regime. This suggests that adequate representations of the effects of climate change on water yield for regional assessment purposes can be expected using the TOPMODEL concept.     

Arctic Lake Physical Processes and Regimes with Implications for Winter Water Availability and Management in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska

Lakes are dominant landforms in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) as well as important social and ecological resources. Of recent importance is the management of these freshwater ecosystems because lakes deeper than maximum ice thickness provide an important and often sole source of liquid water for aquatic biota, villages, and industry during winter. To better understand seasonal and annual hydrodynamics in the context of lake morphometry, we analyzed lakes in two adjacent areas where winter water use is expected to increase in the near future because of industrial expansion. Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery acquired between 1985 and 2007 were analyzed and compared with climate data to understand interannual variability. Measured changes in lake area extent varied by 0.6% and were significantly correlated to total precipitation in the preceding 12 months (p < 0.05). Using this relation, the modeled lake area extent from 1985 to 2007 showed no long-term trends. In addition, high-resolution aerial photography, bathymetric surveys, water-level monitoring, and lake-ice thickness measurements and growth models were used to better understand seasonal hydrodynamics, surface area-to-volume relations, winter water availability, and more permanent changes related to geomorphic change. Together, these results describe how lakes vary seasonally and annually in two critical areas of the NPRA and provide simple models to help better predict variation in lake-water supply. Our findings suggest that both overestimation and underestimation of actual available winter water volume may occur regularly, and this understanding may help better inform management strategies as future resource use expands in the NPRA.     

The Potential Use of Synthetic Aperture Radar for Estimating Methane Ebullition From Arctic Lakes1

Abstract: Arctic lakes are significant emitters of methane (CH₄), a potent greenhouse gas, to the atmosphere; yet no rigorous quantification of the magnitude and variability of pan‐Arctic lake emissions exists. In this study, we demonstrate the potential for a new method using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to detect methane bubbles in lake ice to scale up whole‐lake measurements of CH₄ ebullition (bubbling) to regional scales. We estimated ebullition from lakes, which is often the dominant mode of lake emissions, by mapping the distribution of bubble clusters frozen in early winter ice across surfaces of seven tundra lakes and one boreal forest lake in Alaska. Applying previously measured ebullition rates associated with four distinct classes of bubble clusters found in lake ice, we estimated whole‐lake emissions from individual lakes. The percent surface area of lake ice covered with bubbles (R² = 0.68) and CH₄ ebullition rates from lakes (R² = 0.59) and were correlated with radar return values from RADARSAT‐1 Standard Beam mode 3 for the tundra lakes, suggesting that with appropriate scaling and consideration for variability in lake‐ice conditions, this technique has the potential to be used for estimating broader‐scale regional and pan‐Arctic lake methane emissions.     

Simulating interactive effects of symbiotic nitrogen fixation, carbon dioxide elevation, and climatic change on legume growth

The underlying mechanisms of interaction between the symbiotic nitrogen-fixation process and main physiological processes, such as assimilation, nutrient allocation, and structural growth, as well as effects of nitrogen fixation on plant responses to global change, are important and still open to more investigation. Appropriate models have not been adequately developed. A dynamic ecophysiological model was developed in this study for a legume plant [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] growing in northern China. The model synthesized symbiotic nitrogen fixation and the main physiological processes under variable atmospheric CO2 concentration and climatic conditions, and emphasized the interactive effects of these processes on seasonal biomass dynamics of the plant. Experimental measurements of ecophysiological quantities obtained in a CO2 enrichment experiment on soybean plants, were used to parameterize and validate the model. The results indicated that the model simulated the experiments with reasonable accuracy. The R2 values between simulations and observations are 0.94, 0.95, and 0.86 for total biomass, green biomass, and nodule biomass, respectively. The simulations for various combinations of atmospheric CO2 concentration, precipitation, and temperature, with or without nitrogen fixation, showed that increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, precipitation, and efficiency of nitrogen fixation all have positive effects on biomass accumulation. On the other hand, an increased temperature induced lower rates of biomass accumulation under semi-arid conditions. In general, factors with positive effects on plant growth tended to promote each other in the simulation range, except the relationship between CO2 concentration and climatic factors. Because of the enhanced water use efficiency with a higher CO2 concentration, more significant effects of CO2 concentration were associated with a worse (dryer and warmer in this study) climate.     

Thermal Characteristics of Stormwater Runoff from Asphalt and Sod Surfaces1

Abstract: Urban impervious surfaces absorb and store thermal energy, particularly during warm summer months. During a rainfall/runoff event, thermal energy is transferred from the impervious surface to the runoff, causing it to become warmer. As this higher temperature runoff enters receiving waters, it can be harmful to coldwater habitat. In an urban watershed, impervious asphalt surfaces (roads, parking lots, and driveways) and pervious residential lawns comprise a significant portion of the watershed area. A paired asphalt‐turfgrass sod plot was constructed to compare the thermal runoff characteristics between asphalt and turfgrass sod surfaces, to identify meteorological variables that influence these thermal characteristics, and to evaluate evaporative heat loss for runoff from asphalt surfaces. Rainfall simulations were conducted during the summers of 2004 and 2005 under a range of climatic conditions. Asphalt surface temperatures immediately prior to rainfall simulations averaged 43.6°C and decreased an average of 12.3°C over 60 min as rain cooled the surface. In contrast, presimulation sod surface temperatures averaged only 23.3°C and increased an average of 1.3°C throughout the rainfall events. Heat transferred from the asphalt to the runoff resulted in initial asphalt runoff temperatures averaging 35.0°C that decreased by an average of 4.1°C at the end of the event. Sod runoff temperatures averaged only 25.5°C and remained fairly constant throughout the simulations. Multivariable regression equations were developed to predict (1) average asphalt surface temperature (R² = 0.90) and average asphalt runoff temperature (R² = 0.92) as a function of solar radiation, rain temperature, and wind speed, and (2) average sod surface temperature (R² = 0.85) and average sod runoff temperature (R² = 0.94) as a function of solar radiation, rain temperature, rain intensity, and wind speed. Based on a heat balance analysis, existing evaporation equations developed from studies on lakes were not adequate to predict evaporation from runoff on a heated impervious surface. The combined heat from the asphalt and sod plots was an average of 38% less than the total heat had the total area consisted solely of asphalt.     

POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON MOUNTAIN WATERSHEDS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST1

ABSTRACT: Global climate change due to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has serious potential impacts on water resources in the Pacific Northwest. Climate scenarios produced by general circulation models (GCMs) do not provide enough spatial specificity for studying water resources in mountain watersheds. This study uses dynamical downscaling with a regional climate model (RCM) driven by a GCM to simulate climate change scenarios. The RCM uses a subgrid parameterization of orographic precipitation and land surface cover to simulate surface climate at the spatial scale suitable for the representation of topographic effects over mountainous regions. Numerical experiments have been performed to simulate the present-day climatology and the climate conditions corresponding to a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The RCM results indicate an average warming of about 2.5°C, and precipitation generally increases over the Pacific Northwest and decreases over California. These simulations were used to drive a distributed hydrology model of two snow dominated watersheds, the American River and Middle Fork Flathead, in the Pacific Northwest to obtain more detailed estimates of the sensitivity of water resources to climate change. Results show that as more precipitation falls as rain rather than snow in the warmer climate, there is a 60 percent reduction in snowpack and a significant shift in the seasonal pattern of streamflow in the American River. Much less drastic changes are found in the Middle Fork Flathead where snowpack is only reduced by 18 percent and the seasonal pattern of streamflow remains intact. This study shows that the impacts of climate change on water resources are highly region specific. Furthermore, under the specific climate change scenario, the impacts are largely driven by the warming trend rather than the precipitation trend, which is small.     

HYDROLOGIC SIMULATION OF THE LITTLE WASHITA RIVER EXPERIMENTAL WATERSHED USING SWAT1

ABSTRACT: Precipitation and streamflow data from three nested subwatersheds within the Little Washita River Experimental Watershed (LWREW) in southwestern Oklahoma were used to evaluate the capabilities of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict streamflow under varying climatic conditions. Eight years of precipitation and streamflow data were used to calibrate parameters in the model, and 15 years of data were used for model validation. SWAT was calibrated on the smallest and largest sub‐watersheds for a wetter than average period of record. The model was then validated on a third subwatershed for a range in climatic conditions that included dry, average, and wet periods. Calibration of the model involved a multistep approach. A preliminary calibration was conducted to estimate model parameters so that measured versus simulated yearly and monthly runoff were in agreement for the respective calibration periods. Model parameters were then fine tuned based on a visual inspection of daily hydrographs and flow frequency curves. Calibration on a daily basis resulted in higher baseflows and lower peak runoff rates than were obtained in the preliminary calibration. Test results show that once the model was calibrated for wet climatic conditions, it did a good job in predicting streamflow responses over wet, average, and dry climatic conditions selected for model validation. Monthly coefficients of efficiencies were 0.65, 0.86, and 0.45 for the dry, average, and wet validation periods, respectively. Results of this investigation indicate that once calibrated, SWAT is capable of providing adequate simulations for hydrologic investigations related to the impact of climate variations on water resources of the LWREW.     

Impacts of 21st‐Century Climate Change on Hydrologic Extremes in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America

Climate change projections for the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of North America include warmer temperatures (T), reduced precipitation (P) in summer months, and increased P during all other seasons. Using a physically based hydrologic model and an ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate model scenarios produced by the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, we examine the nature of changing hydrologic extremes (floods and low flows) under natural conditions for about 300 river locations in the PNW. The combination of warming, and shifts in seasonal P regimes, results in increased flooding and more intense low flows for most of the basins in the PNW. Flood responses depend on average midwinter T and basin type. Mixed rain and snow basins, with average winter temperatures near freezing, typically show the largest increases in flood risk because of the combined effects of warming (increasing contributing basin area) and more winter P. Decreases in low flows are driven by loss of snowpack, drier summers, and increasing evapotranspiration in the simulations. Energy‐limited basins on the west side of the Cascades show the strongest declines in low flows, whereas more arid, water‐limited basins on the east side of the Cascades show smaller reductions in low flows. A fine‐scale analysis of hydrologic extremes over the Olympic Peninsula echoes the results for the larger rivers discussed above, but provides additional detail about topographic gradients.     

PRECIPITATION DIFFERENCES AMONGST GCMs USED FOR THE U.S. NATIONAL ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Two general circulation models (GCMs) used in the U.S. national assessment of the potential consequences of climate variability and change (CGCM1 and HadCM2) show a large increase in precipitation in the future over the southwestern U.S., particularly during winter. This precipitation increase is an extension of a larger region of increased precipitation in the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of North America that is associated with a deepened and southward-shifted Aleutian Low, a weaker subtropical high, and warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The models differ in their simulation of precipitation anomalies over the southeastern U.S., with CGCM1 showing drier conditions and HadCM2 showing wetter conditions in the future. While both models show decreased frequency of Atlantic storms, consistent with decreased meridional and land/sea temperature gradients, the more coastal position of the storm track in CGCM1 results in less precipitation than modern along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. During summer, differences in land surface models within the two GCMs sometimes lead to differences in soil moisture that feed back to the precipitation over land due to available moisture.     

A Tool for Modeling the Winter Oxygen Depletion Rate in Arctic Lakes1

Abstract: Many arctic lakes freeze completely in winter. The few that retain unfrozen water for the entire winter period serve as overwintering fish habitat. In addition to serving as fish habitat, water in arctic lakes is needed for industrial and domestic use. Permits for water extraction seek to maximize water use without impacting dissolved oxygen (DO) levels and endangering fish habitat. The relationship between lake volume, winter DO budget, and extraction of water through pumping has historically not been well understood. A management model that could estimate end‐of‐winter DO would improve our understanding of the potential impacts of different management strategies. Using under‐ice DO measurements (November to April) taken from two natural lakes and one flooded gravel mine on the North Slope of Alaska, a physically based model was developed to predict end‐of‐winter DO concentration, water‐column DO profiles, and winter oxygen depletion rate in arctic lakes during periods of ice cover. Comparisons between the measured and model‐predicted oxygen profiles in the three study lakes suggest that the depth‐based DO modeling tool presented herein can be used to adequately predict the amount of DO available in arctic lakes throughout winter.     

SENSITWITY OF IRRIGATION DEMAND IN A HUMID-TEMPERATE REGION TO HYPOTHETICAL CLIMATIC CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: An irrigation model based on a modified Thornthwaite water balance was used to simulate the effects of various hypothetical climatic changes on annual irrigation demand in a humidtemperate climate. The climatic-change scenarios consisted of combinations of changes in temperature, precipitation, and stomatal resistance of plants to transpiration. The objectives were to (1) examine the effects of long-term changes in these components of climatic change on annual irrigation demand, and (2) identify which of these factors would cause the largest changes in annual irrigation demand. Hypothetical climatic changes that only included increases in temperature and changes in precipitation resulted in increased annual irrigation demand, even with a 20 percent increase in precipitation. The model results showed that, for the ranges of changes in temperature and precipitation used in this study, changes in irrigation demand were more sensitive to changes in temperature than to changes in precipitation. Model results also indicated that increased stomatal resistance to transpiration counteracted the effects of increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation on irrigation demand. Changes in irrigation demand were even more sensitive to changes in stomatal resistance than to changes in temperature. A large amount of uncertainty is associated with predictions of future climatic conditions; however, uncertainty associated with natural climatic variability may be larger and may mask the effects of climatic change on irrigation demand.     

Model Calculations of Total Maximum Daily Loads of Mercury for Drainage Lakes1

Abstract: The Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework watershed model was enhanced to simulate the transport and fate of mercury and to calculate the fish mercury concentrations (FMC) attained by fish through the food web. The model was applied to Western Lake Superior Basin of Minnesota, which has many peat lands and lakes. Topographic, land use, and soil data were used to set up the model. Meteorology and precipitation chemistry data from nearby monitoring stations were compiled to drive the model. Simulated flow and mercury concentrations for several stream stations were comparable to available data. The model was used to perform mercury total maximum daily load calculations for two contrasting drainage lakes (Wild Rice Lake and Whiteface Reservoir). The model results for wet deposition, dry deposition, evasion, watershed yield, and soil sequestration of mercury were comparable with available actual data. The model predicted lake ice cover from November to April and weak stratification in summer, typical of shallow lakes in cold regions. The simulated sulfate decrease and methylmercury increase near the lake bottom in late summer are caused by sulfate reduction and mercury methylation that occur in the surficial sediment. Simulated FMC were within the range of observed values and the R² of correlation between the simulated and observed FMC was 0.77. Under the 1989‐2004 base condition, the average simulated FMC of four‐year‐old walleye was 0.31 μg/g for Whiteface Reservoir and 0.15 μg/g for Wild Rice Lake. The FMC criterion in Minnesota is 0.2 μg/g. Wild Rice Lake already meets this criterion without any load reduction. The model showed that a 65% reduction in atmospheric mercury deposition will not, by itself, allow Whiteface Reservoir to meet the criterion in 15 years. Additional best management practices will be needed to reduce 50% of the watershed input.     

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Reliability of Water and Hydropower Supply from a Multipurpose Dam in South Korea

Future climate change is a source of growing concerns for the supply of energy and resources, and it may have significant impacts on industry and the economy. Major effects are likely to arise from changes to the freshwater resources system, due to the connection of energy generation to these water systems. Using future climate data downscaled by a stochastic weather generator, this study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on long‐term reservoir operations at the Chungju multipurpose dam in South Korea, specifically considering the reliability of the supply of water and hydropower. A reservoir model, Hydrologic Engineering Center‐Reservoir System Simulation (HEC‐ResSim), was used to simulate the ability of the dam to supply water and hydropower under different conditions. The hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to determine the HEC‐ResSim boundary conditions, including daily dam inflow from the 6,642 km² watershed into the 2.75 Gm³ capacity reservoir. Projections of the future climate indicate that temperature and precipitation during 2070‐2099 (2080s) show an increase of +4.1°C and 19.4%, respectively, based on the baseline (1990‐2009). The results from the models suggest that, in the 2080s, the average annual water supply and hydropower production would change by +19.8 to +56.5% and by +33.9 to 92.3%, respectively. Model simulations suggest that under the new climatic conditions, the reliability of water and hydropower supply would be generally improved, as a consequence of increased dam inflow.     

PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR GREAT LAKES HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: The individual hydrologic components are assumed to be normally distributed for each month and linear regression equations are estimated for predicting the value of the individual monthly hydrologic components. It is shown that some of the hydrologic components for downwind (in this case downstream) lakes are dependent upon hydrologic events for the upwind lakes. This is particularly so for precipitation in the downwind lake basins which appears to be dependent upon evaporation values for upwind lakes.     

Effects of Water Withdrawal From Ice‐Covered Lakes on Oxygen,Temperature, and Fish1

Abstract: In northern regions, large volumes of water are needed for activities such as winter road construction. Such withdrawals, particularly from small lakes, can reduce oxygen concentrations and water levels, potentially affecting aquatic organisms. Withdrawal limits have been developed by regulatory agencies, but are largely theoretical. Water withdrawal thresholds were tested in two small lakes by removing 10% and 20% of their respective under‐ice volumes and comparing oxygen parameters, temperature, over‐wintering habitat, and northern pike (Esox lucius) abundance to reference conditions. Because of a milder winter, oxygen parameters were elevated in reference lakes in the period following withdrawal compared to the prewithdrawal period. The 10% withdrawal resulted in a ?0.2 m shift in the oxygen concentration profile at 4 mg/l in that lake, but had no effect on total volume‐weighted oxygen, or volume of over‐wintering habitat. In contrast, the 20% withdrawal caused 0.7 m reduction in the oxygen concentration profile at 4 mg/l compared to the previous year, a 26% decline in the volume‐weighted oxygen concentration, and a 23% reduction in the volume of over‐wintering habitat compared to prewithdrawal conditions. Water temperatures were slightly (≤ 10%) colder in the upper strata in the year following the withdrawal in both withdrawal and reference lakes. Northern pike abundance was not impacted by water withdrawals in either of the lakes. The results of this study show that the effects of water withdrawal on the parameters investigated reflected the characteristics of the lakes, and would therefore be expected to vary from lake to lake. Policy development to mitigate impacts must therefore reflect the site‐specific nature of water withdrawal.