Tradable Permit Systems: Considering Uncertainty in Emission Estimates

We simulate the market for emission permits by considering uncertainty in emission inventory reports. The approach taken in this analysis is to enhance the emissions reported in each region by a certain part of their uncertainty when compliance with the Kyoto targets is being proved. While this formulation is not new in the literature, we define the uncertainty component in a way that enables comparison with the approach of effective permits presented in Nahorski, Horabik, and Jonas (2007) Compliance and emissions trading under the Kyoto protocol: Rules for uncertain inventories, (this issue). We show and explain that the transformation to effective permits bears additional costs apart from those resulting from shifting the Kyoto targets.     

Accounting for Climate Change: Introduction

The assessment of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on both political and scientific agendas internationally. As increasing international concern and cooperation aim at policy-oriented solutions to the climate change problem, several issues have begun to arise regarding verification and compliance under both proposed and legislated schemes meant to reduce the human-induced global climate impact. The approaches to addressing uncertainty introduced in this article attempt to improve national inventories or to provide a basis for the standardization of inventory estimates to enable comparison of emissions and emission changes across countries. Authors of the accompanying articles use detailed uncertainty analyses to enforce the current structure of the emission trading system and attempt to internalize high levels of uncertainty by tailoring the emissions trading market rules. Assessment of uncertainty can help improve inventories and manage risk. Through recognizing the importance of, identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in the process of Accounting for Climate Change.     

Extension of EU Emissions Trading Scheme to Other Sectors and Gases: Consequences for Uncertainty of Total Tradable Amount

Emissions trading in the European Union (EU), covering the least uncertain emission sources of greenhouse gas emission inventories (CO₂ from combustion and selected industrial processes in large installations), began in 2005. During the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008–2012), the emissions trading between Parties to the Protocol will cover all greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF₆) and sectors (energy, industry, agriculture, waste, and selected land-use activities) included in the Protocol. In this paper, we estimate the uncertainties in different emissions trading schemes based on uncertainties in corresponding inventories. According to the results, uncertainty in emissions from the EU15 and the EU25 included in the first phase of the EU emissions trading scheme (2005–2007) is ±3% (at 95% confidence interval relative to the mean value). If the trading were extended to CH₄ and N₂O, in addition to CO₂, but no new emissions sectors were included, the tradable amount of emissions would increase by only 2% and the uncertainty in the emissions would range from −4 to +8%. Finally, uncertainty in emissions included in emissions trading under the Kyoto Protocol was estimated to vary from −6 to +21%. Inclusion of removals from forest-related activities under the Kyoto Protocol did not notably affect uncertainty, as the volume of these removals is estimated to be small.     

Processing National CO2 Inventory Emissions Data and their Total Uncertainty Estimates

The uncertainty of reported greenhouse gases emission inventories obtained by the aggregation of partial emissions from all sources and estimated to date for several countries is very high in comparison with the countries’ emissions limitation and reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Independent calculation of the estimates could confirm or question the undertainty estimates values obtained thus far. One of the aims of this paper is to propose statistical signal processing methods to enable calculation of the inventory variances. The annual reported emissions are used and temporal smoothness of the emissions curve is assumed. The methods considered are: a spline-function-smoothing procedure; a time-varying parameter model; and the geometric Brownian motion model. These are validated on historical observations of the CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The estimates of variances obtained are in a similar range to those obtained from national inventories using TIER1 or TIER2. Additionally, some regularities in the observed curves were noticed.     

Practical Policy Applications of Uncertainty Analysis for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

International policy makers and climate researchers use greenhouse gas emissions inventory estimates in a variety of ways. Because of the varied uses of the inventory data, as well as the high uncertainty surrounding some of the source category estimates, considerable effort has been devoted to understanding the causes and magnitude of uncertainty in national emissions inventories. In this paper, we focus on two aspects of the rationale for quantifying uncertainty: (1) the possible uses of the quantified uncertainty estimates for policy (e.g., as a means of adjusting inventories used to determine compliance with international commitments); and (2) the direct benefits of the process of investigating uncertainties in terms of improving inventory quality. We find that there are particular characteristics that an inventory uncertainty estimate should have if it is to be used for policy purposes: (1) it should be comparable across countries; (2) it should be relatively objective, or at least subject to review and verification; (3) it should not be subject to gaming by countries acting in their own self-interest; (4) it should be administratively feasible to estimate and use; (5) the quality of the uncertainty estimate should be high enough to warrant the additional compliance costs that its use in an adjustment factor may impose on countries; and (6) it should attempt to address all types of inventory uncertainty. Currently, inventory uncertainty estimates for national greenhouse gas inventories do not have these characteristics. For example, the information used to develop quantitative uncertainty estimates for national inventories is often based on expert judgments, which are, by definition, subjective rather than objective, and therefore difficult to review and compare. Further, the practical design of a potential factor to adjust inventory estimates using uncertainty estimates would require policy makers to (1) identify clear environmental goals; (2) define these goals precisely in terms of relationships among important variables (such as emissions estimate, commitment level, or statistical confidence); and (3) develop a quantifiable adjustment mechanism that reflects these environmental goals. We recommend that countries implement an investigation-focused (i.e., qualitative) uncertainty analysis that will (1) provide the type of information necessary to develop more substantive, and potentially useful, quantitative uncertainty estimates-regardless of whether those quantitative estimates are used for policy purposes; and (2) provide information needed to understand the likely causes of uncertainty in inventory data and thereby point to ways to improve inventory quality (i.e., accuracy, transparency, completeness, and consistency).     

National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Understanding Uncertainties versus Potential for Improving Reliability

We investigated the Austrian national greenhouse gas emission inventory to review the reliability and usability of such inventories. The overall uncertainty of the inventory (95% confidence interval) is just over 10% of total emissions, with nitrous oxide (N₂O) from soils clearly providing the largest impact. Trend uncertainty – the difference between 2 years – is only about five percentage points, as important sources like soil N₂O are not expected to show different behavior between the years and thus exhibit a high covariance. The result is very typical for industrialized countries – subjective decisions by individuals during uncertainty assessment are responsible for most of the discrepancies among countries. Thus, uncertainty assessment cannot help to evaluate whether emission targets have been met. Instead, a more rigid emission accounting system that allows little individual flexibility is proposed to provide harmonized evaluation uninfluenced by the respective targets. Such an accounting system may increase uncertainty in terms of greenhouse gas fluxes to the atmosphere. More importantly, however, it will decrease uncertainty in intercountry comparisons and thus allow for fair burden sharing. Setting of post-Kyoto emission targets will require the independent evaluation of achievements. This can partly be achieved by the validation of emission inventories and thorough uncertainty assessment.     

Prior to Economic Treatment of Emissions and Their Uncertainties Under the Kyoto Protocol: Scientific Uncertainties That Must Be Kept in Mind

In a step-by-step exercise – beginning at full greenhouse gas accounting (FGA) and ending with the temporal detection of emission changes – we specify the relevant physical scientific constraints on carrying out temporal signal detection under the Kyoto Protocol and identify a number of scientific uncertainties that economic experts must consider before dealing with the economic aspects of emissions and their uncertainties under the Protocol. In addition, we answer one of the crucial questions that economic experts might pose: how credible in scientific terms are tradable emissions permits? Our exercise is meant to provide a preliminary basis for economic experts to carry out useful emissions trading assessments and specify the validity of their assessments from the scientific point of view, that is, in the general context of a FGA-uncertainty-verification framework. Such a basis is currently missing.     

乌鲁木齐市非金属矿物制品业大气污染物排放清单与时空分布

基于乌鲁木齐市各类非金属矿物制品业的活动水平数据及其排放因子，建立了2015年乌鲁木齐市3种大气污染物的排放清单。2015年乌鲁木齐市非金属矿物制品业大气污染物NO_x、SO₂和PM_2.5的排放总量分别为1.17×10⁴ t、1.63×10⁴ t和8.35×10³ t。混凝土配料行业是NO_x和SO₂的主要排放源，占比分别为56.77%和71.72%；PM2.5的排放源主要是水泥（干法）行业，占比为70.23%。米东区是对NO_x、SO₂和PM_2.5排放量的最大贡献区域，头屯河区是NO_x和SO₂的第二大贡献区域，达坂城区是PM_2.5的第二大贡献区域。污染物在5~9月处于排放高峰期。蒙特卡罗法模拟结果表明，混凝土配料制品行业95%置信区间的不确定性最高，为-72%~157%。     

The Impact of Uncertainty on Banking Behavior: Evidence from the US Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Allowance Trading Program

In this paper, we study empirically whether uncertainty has an influence on trade in the US sulfur dioxide allowances market. In particular, we investigate the role of uncertainty on banking behavior. To do this, we introduce a tractable, structural model of trading permits under uncertainty. The model establishes a relation between banking behavior and risk preferences, especially prudence in the Kimball (1990) sense. We then test this model using data on allowances, for utilities submitted to the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Acid Rain Program, carried over from one year to the next. Evidence is found of imprudence, namely, utilities bank permits in order to favor higher profits. Another finding is that larger utilities do not adopt behavior significantly different from that of smaller ones. This paper was presented at the “International Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Verification, Compliance & Trading” in Warsaw, Poland, September 2004, under the title “Portfolio Management of Emissions Permits and Prudence Behavior.”     

Adapting the Speciation of the VOCs Emission Inventory in the Greater Athens Area

An adaptation procedure of a new emission inventory of theGreater Athens Area is attempted, based on a sensitivityanalysis on the treatment of the VOC emissions. Throughthis procedure the impact that a more detailed treatment ofthe VOCs emissions might have on the atmospheric chemistrysimulations, is examined. For this analysis three differentchemical mechanisms were applied for two differentlocations (urban and city plume) with different VOC andNO_x mixture characteristics. Finally, this studyrecommends new carbon fractions, reflecting the localconditions in Athens basin.     

Spatial GHG Inventory: Analysis of Uncertainty Sources. A Case Study for Ukraine

A geoinformation technology for creating spatially distributed greenhouse gas inventories based on a methodology provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and special software linking input data, inventory models, and a means for visualization are proposed. This technology opens up new possibilities for qualitative and quantitative spatially distributed presentations of inventory uncertainty at the regional level. Problems concerning uncertainty and verification of the distributed inventory are discussed. A Monte Carlo analysis of uncertainties in the energy sector at the regional level is performed, and a number of simulations concerning the effectiveness of uncertainty reduction in some regions are carried out. Uncertainties in activity data have a considerable influence on overall inventory uncertainty, for example, the inventory uncertainty in the energy sector declines from 3.2 to 2.0% when the uncertainty of energy-related statistical data on fuels combusted in the energy industries declines from 10 to 5%. Within the energy sector, the ‘energy industries’ subsector has the greatest impact on inventory uncertainty. The relative uncertainty in the energy sector inventory can be reduced from 2.19 to 1.47% if the uncertainty of specific statistical data on fuel consumption decreases from 10 to 5%. The ‘energy industries’ subsector has the greatest influence in the Donetsk oblast. Reducing the uncertainty of statistical data on electricity generation in just three regions – the Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Luhansk oblasts – from 7.5 to 4.0% results in a decline from 2.6 to 1.6% in the uncertainty in the national energy sector inventory.     

Ozone Episode in the Milan Metropolitan Area A Comparative Evaluation of UAM-V and CALGRID Models

Data from an ozone episode (2–5 June, 1998) in the Milan metropolitan area were used for an application of two photochemical grid models: UAM-V and CALGRID. To assure a fair comparison, the models were run on the same domain and grid size, with same source emission inputs, CALMET diagnostic meteorology, and initial and boundary conditions taken from air quality data and literature values. Hourly emissions were derived from the AutoOil-II programme inventory except for on-road mobile source emissions; a new traffic emission inventory, based on both COPERT II methodology and road classification has been developed. NO_x and O₃ concentration results were compared to local network monitoring data. Results indicate that both models predict the highest ozone values along the north-east direction and are able to reproduce the ozone daytime trend though differences can be found between the two models on ozone spatial distribution. Average normalised bias for both models is about 50%, peak daily ozone concentrations are underestimated, with simulated peak shapes broader than the observed ones and a temporal shift between the two models. Night-time concentration levels of pollutants were not successfully reproduced due to an incorrect parameterisation of vertical turbulence calling for further work.     

Biomass District Energy Trigeneration Systems: Emissions Reduction and Financial Impact

Biomass cogeneration is widely used for district heating applications in central and northern Europe. Biomass trigeneration on the other hand, constitutes an innovative renewable energy application. In this work, an approved United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change baseline methodology has been extended to allow the examination of biomass trigeneration applications. The methodology is applied to a case study in Greece to investigate various environmental and financial aspects of this type of applications. The results suggest that trigeneration may lead to significant emissions reduction compared to using fossil fuels or even biomass cogeneration and electricity generation. The emissions reduction achieved may be materialized into a considerable revenue stream for the project, if traded through a trading mechanism such as the European Union Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme. A sensitivity analysis has been performed to compensate for the high volatility of the emission allowances’ value and the immaturity of the EU Trading Scheme, which prevent a reliable estimation of the related revenue. The work concludes that emission allowances trading may develop into one of the major revenue streams of biomass trigeneration projects, significantly increasing their financial yield and attractiveness. The impact on the yield is significant even for low future values of emission allowances and could become the main income revenue source of such projects, if emission allowances increase their value substantially. The application of trigeneration for district energy proves to lead to increased environmental and financial benefits compared to the cogeneration or electricity generation cases.     

A Chronology of Nitrogen Deposition in the UK Between 1900 and 2000

Measurements of the concentrations of nitrogen compounds in air and precipitation in the UK have been made since the mid-19th century, but no networks operating to common protocols and having traceable analytical procedures were established until the 1950s. From 1986 onwards, a high-quality network of sampling stations for precipitation chemistry was established across the UK. In the following decade, monitoring networks provided measurement of NO₂, NH₃, HNO₃ and a satisfactory understanding of the dry deposition process for these gases allowed dry deposition to be quantified. Maps of N deposition for oxidized and reduced compounds at a spatial scale of 5 km × 5 km are available from 1986 to 2000. Between 1950 and 1985, the more limited measurements, beginning with those of the European Air Chemistry Network (EACN) provide a reasonable basis to estimate wet deposition of NO ₃ ^– –N and NH ₄ ⁺ –N. For the first half of the century, estimates of deposition were scaled with emissions assuming a constant relationship between emission and deposition for each of the components of the wet and dry deposition budget at the country scale. Emissions of oxidized N, which dominated total nitrogen emissions throughout the century, increased from 312 kt N annually in 1900 to a peak of 787 kt for the decade 1980–1990 and then declined to 460 kt in 2000. Emissions of reduced N, largely from coal combustion were about 168 kt N in 1900, increasing to a peak of 263 kt N in 2000 and by now dominated by agricultural sources. Reduced N dominated the deposition budget at the country scale, increasing from 163 kt N in 1900 to 211 kt N in 2000, while deposition of oxidized N was 66 kt N in 1900 and 191 kt N in 2000. Over the century, 68 Mt (Tg) of fixed N was emitted within the UK, 78% as NO _x , while 29 Mt of nitrogen was deposited (43% of emissions), equivalent to 1.2 t N ha^–1, on average, with 60% in the reduced form. Deposition to semi-natural ecosystems is approximately 15 Tg N, equivalent to between 1 and 5 t N ha^–1, over the century and appears to be accumulating in soil. The N deposition over the century is similar in magnitude to the total soil N inventory in surface horizons.     

Life Cycle Assessment of landfill biogas management: Sensitivity to diffuse and combustion air emissions

Goal and scopeThe life cycle inventory of landfill emissions is a key point in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of waste management options and is highly subject to discussion. Result sensitivity to data inventory is accounted for through the implementation of scenarios that help examine how waste landfilling should be modeled in LCA.MethodFour landfill biogas management options are environmentally evaluated in a Life Cycle Assessment perspective: (1) no biogas management (open dump), conventional landfill with (2) flaring, (3) combined heat and power (CHP) production in an internal combustion engine and (4) biogas upgrading for use as a fuel in buses. Average, maximum and minimum literature values are considered both for combustion emission factors in flares and engines and for trace pollutant concentrations in biogas.ResultsBiogas upgrading for use as a fuel in buses appears as the most relevant option with respect to most non-toxic impact categories and ecotoxicity, when considering average values for trace gas concentrations and combustion emission factors. Biogas combustion in an engine for CHP production shows the best performances in terms of climate change, but generates significantly higher photochemical oxidant formation and marine eutrophication impact potentials than flaring or biogas upgrading for use as a fuel in buses.Interpretation and discussionHowever the calculated environmental impact potentials of landfill biogas management options depend largely on the trace gas concentrations implemented in the model. The use of average or extreme values reported in the literature significantly modifies the impact potential of a given scenario (up to two orders of magnitude for open dumps with respect to human toxicity). This should be taken into account when comparing landfilling with other waste management options. Also, the actual performances of a landfill top cover (in terms of oxidation rates) and combustion technology (in terms of emission factors) appear as key parameters affecting the ranking of biogas management options.     

Applying guidance for methane emission estimation for landfills

Quantification of methane emission from landfills is important to evaluate measures for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Both the United Nations and the European Union have adopted protocols to ensure quantification of methane emission from individual landfills. The purpose of these protocols is to disclose emission data to regulators and the general public. Criteria such as timeliness, completeness, certainty, comparability, consistency and transparency are set for inclusion of emission data in a publicly accessible database. All methods given as guidance to landfill operators to estimate landfill methane emissions are based on models. In this paper the consequences of applying six different models for estimates of three landfills are explored. It is not the intention of this paper to criticise or validate models. The modelling results are compared with whole site methane emission measurements. A huge difference in results is observed. This raises doubts about the accuracy of the models. It also indicates that at least some of the criteria previously mentioned are not met for the tools currently available to estimate methane emissions from individual landfills. This will inevitably lead to compiling and comparing data with an incomparable origin. Harmonization of models is recommended. This may not necessarily reduce uncertainty, but it will at least result in comparable, consistent and transparent data.     

Mercury emission from sewage sludge incineration in Japan

Sewage sludge contains trace amounts of mercury, and sewage sludge incineration is a major source of mercury emissions. However, relatively few studies have reported on mercury emissions from sewage sludge incineration. Consequently, data on emissions from sewage sludge incinerators must be updated to estimate current emissions of mercury. In this study, we examined mercury emissions and speciation using continuous mercury analyzers in two incinerators. The mercury concentrations in stack gas from facilities A and B were 36.6 and 21.1???g/Nm³, respectively. As a result, the emission rate was calculated to be 0.282?C0.750?g/ton-dry sludge. Considering the total amount of sewage sludge incinerated in Japan, the mercury emissions from sewage sludge incinerators were estimated to be 0.49?C1.31?tons/year.     

Application of tracer ratio and inverse dispersion methods with boat-based plume measurements to estimate ammonia emissions from seabird colonies

Ammonia emissions from two contrasting seabird colonies in Scotland were measured, based on the determination of atmospheric concentrations downwind of the colonies. Atmospheric concentrations of ammonia (NH₃) across the downwind plume were compared with the inverse application of a Gaussian dispersion model (ID) to calculate the modelled NH₃ emission that would generate the measured cross-wind-integrated plume concentration. In parallel, a tracer gas (sulphur hexafluoride, SF₆) was released from the colonies with air samples taken to allow determination of SF₆ concentrations. On the basis of the known emission rate of SF₆, the magnitude of ammonia emissions was estimated by the cross-wind-integrated tracer ratio (TR) of NH₃/SF₆ concentrations. Coupled with data on annual bird attendance, the measurements indicate annual emissions from the Isle of May and the Bass Rock of 18 and 132 tonnes NH₃-N year^–1, respectively. The measured NH₃ emissions were compared with estimates of seabird nitrogen excretion to estimate the proportion of excreted N that is volatilised as NH₃ (F_Nr). The emission estimates of the two methods compared favourably, giving 4 and 6 kg NH₃-N h^–1 (F_Nr = 15%) for the Isle of May for the ID and TR methods, respectively, and 21 and 25 kg NH₃-N h^–1 (F_Nr = 50%) for the Bass Rock for the ID and TR methods, respectively. The results provide the first measurement-based estimates to allow regional up scaling of ammonia emissions from seabirds.     

The application and development of country-specific parameters for accurate estimations of methane emissions from solid-waste disposal sites

To identify the application and development of country-specific parameters for methane emission estimations from solid-waste disposal sites, National Inventory Reports of 41 Annex I countries and National Communications of ten non-Annex I countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change were analyzed. A first-order decay method was applied to 38 out of 41 Annex I countries and to five out of ten non-Annex I countries in national GHG inventory submissions up to 2012. Country-specific parameters were approximately 26 % of the total number of parameters used in the 38 Annex I countries and were mostly developed for degradable organic carbon and reaction constants that cover certain waste compositions. The UNFCCC encourages countries to develop more country-specific parameters reflecting the distinct characteristics of each country in which solid-waste disposal site is a key source. Depending on a country’s condition, a stepwise approach regarding the development of country-specific parameters needs to be done so as to improve the accuracy of methane emission estimates in the solid-waste disposal site category.     

A chronology of nitrogen deposition in the UK between 1900 and 2000

Measurements of the concentrations of nitrogen compounds in air and precipitation in the UK have been made since the mid-19th century, but no networks operating to common protocols and having traceable analytical procedures were established until the 1950s. From 1986 onwards, a high-quality network of sampling stations for precipitation chemistry was established across the UK. In the following decade, monitoring networks provided measurement of NO₂, NH₃, HNO₃ and a satisfactory understanding of the dry deposition process for these gases allowed dry deposition to be quantified. Maps of N deposition for oxidized and reduced compounds at a spatial scale of 5 km × 5 km are available from 1986 to 2000. Between 1950 and 1985, the more limited measurements, beginning with those of the European Air Chemistry Network (EACN) provide a reasonable basis to estimate wet deposition of NO^? ₃?N and NH⁺ ₄?N. For the first half of the century, estimates of deposition were scaled with emissions assuming a constant relationship between emission and deposition for each of the components of the wet and dry deposition budget at the country scale. Emissions of oxidized N, which dominated total nitrogen emissions throughout the century, increased from 312 kt N annually in 1900 to a peak of 787 kt for the decade 1980–1990 and then declined to 460 kt in 2000. Emissions of reduced N, largely from coal combustion were about 168 kt N in 1900, increasing to a peak of 263 kt N in 2000 and by now dominated by agricultural sources. Reduced N dominated the deposition budget at the country scale, increasing from 163 kt N in 1900 to 211 kt N in 2000, while deposition of oxidized N was 66 kt N in 1900 and 191 kt N in 2000. Over the century, 68 Mt (Tg) of fixed N was emitted within the UK, 78% as NO _x , while 29 Mt of nitrogen was deposited (43% of emissions), equivalent to 1.2 t N ha^?1, on average, with 60% in the reduced form. Deposition to semi-natural ecosystems is approximately 15 Tg N, equivalent to between 1 and 5 t N ha^?1, over the century and appears to be accumulating in soil. The N deposition over the century is similar in magnitude to the total soil N inventory in surface horizons.