Framing climate uncertainty: socio-economic and climate scenarios in vulnerability and adaptation assessments

Scenarios have become a powerful tool in integrated assessment and policy analysis for climate change. Socio-economic and climate scenarios are often combined to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities across different sectors and to inform risk management strategies. Such combinations of scenarios can also play an important role in enabling the interaction between experts and other stakeholders, framing issues and providing a means for making explicit and dealing with uncertainties. Drawing on experience with the application of scenarios to climate change assessments in recent Dutch research, the paper argues that scenario approaches need to be matched to the frames of stakeholders who are situated in specific decision contexts. Differentiated approaches (top-down, bottom-up and interactive) are needed to address the different frames and decision-making contexts of stakeholders. A framework is proposed to map scenarios and decision contexts onto two dimensions: the spatial scale of the context and the starting point of approach used in scenario development (top-down, bottom-up or incident-driven). Future climate and socio-economic scenario development will be shaped by the need to become better aligned with multiple interacting uncertainties salient to stakeholders.     

Human ecological effects of tropical storms in the coastal area of Ky Anh (Ha Tinh,Vietnam)

Vietnam is prone to tropical storms. Climate change effects contribute to sea level rise, floods, progression of the low water line and coastal erosion. This paper inventories the perception of local people, assesses and values main aspects of the livelihood damage caused by the tropical storms of the period 2008–2013 in three coastal communes of the Ky Anh District of the Ha Tinh Province in Central Vietnam. The communes were selected because the location of their coastal line is perpendicular to the storm itself, which made them prone to damage. The effects of increasingly extreme weather conditions on three communities in an area most affected by storms and floods on the local residents and their responses to these changing environmental conditions are analyzed and assessed. The results of questionnaires completed by randomly selected local inhabitants of these communes show that storms and related hazards such as flood, sea level rise and heavy rain are perceived as the most impacting climate change intensified phenomena on agriculture and aquaculture, livestock, household property and income. Opinions and measured data provided by the commune and district authorities allow estimating the total direct cost of the tropical storm at 1.56 million $US (The used conversion rate VND/$US is 21,730 when the research was conducted in 2014) during the period 2008–2013. The long-term costs of adaptation and social impact measures will be significantly higher. Details of the monetary figures allow identifying the physical and natural capital of the area as being most affected by the storm. Trend and cost analysis show that the total financial support for hazard prevention and management during 2014–2019 is estimated at 1.19 up to 1.32 million $US. Local stakeholders indicate that climate change adaptation should not be limited to technical measures such as strengthening dikes, but also should target planting protection forests and mangroves and land use planning. Financial support for the relocation policy, stakeholder involvement and integrating climate change adaptation in both the socioeconomic development master plan and local land use planning are also of importance.     

Integrating regional perceptions into climate change adaptation: a transdisciplinary case study from Germany’s North Sea Coast

Coastal protection strategies increasingly have to take into account the effects of climate change. At present, engineering and natural science models that assess the impact of global climatic transformations on regional coastal zones and their protection structures remain rather detached from the knowledge and insights of regional practitioners. The main thesis of this contribution, using a case study from the North Sea Coast of Germany, is that innovative coastal protection requires not only interdisciplinary research but transdisciplinary collaboration in order to develop a viable adaptation strategy. The investigation of the social dimension of climate change and coastal protection strategies, using qualitative interviews with organized regional stakeholders, climate researchers and coastal engineers, as well as a representative public survey, contributes to a comprehensive understanding of regional perceptions with respect to climate change and coastal protection.     

Sub-basin scale characterization of climate change vulnerability, impacts and adaptation in an Indian River basin

Knowledge of climate change vulnerability and impacts is a prerequisite for formulating locally relevant climate change adaptation policies. A participatory approach has been used in this study to determine climate change vulnerability, impacts and adaptation aspects for the Kangsabati River basin, India. The study approach involved engaging with stakeholders representing state (sub-national), district and community levels, through an interactive brainstorming method, to understand stakeholder perceptions regarding (a) local characteristics which influence vulnerability, (b) climate change impacts and (c) relevant adaptation options. The study reveals that vulnerability varies across upstream, midstream and downstream sections of the river basin. Suggested adaptation options, in this predominantly agricultural basin, are found to be applicable across spatial scales. Stakeholder perceptions, regarding vulnerability and impacts, vary with the level of interaction, academic background and type of experience. Interaction confirms the notion that stakeholders have inherent knowledge regarding adaptation, reveals their preferences and ability to think unconventionally. We discuss limitations of the approach while demonstrating its ability to deliver locally relevant and acceptable adaptation options, which could facilitate implementation. We conclude that engaging stakeholders at multiple levels was highly effective in assessing locally relevant aspects of climate change vulnerability, impacts and applicable adaptation options in the Kangsabati River basin. Based on this assessment, a sub-basin scale is recommended for evaluating these aspects, especially for water resources and agricultural systems, through multi-level stakeholder input.     

Does “adaptation to climate change” mean resignation or opportunity?

It has been widely acknowledged that people’s beliefs and perceptions influence implementation of climate change adaptation. Regarding perception barriers, some authors keep highlighting the confused definition of adaptation and its various interpretations. Our research contributes to this area by exploring how adaptation to climate change is perceived through 83 semi-structured interviews with stakeholders (public and municipal organizations, ENGO, private sector) from Montreal and Paris. Our results demonstrate a mirror opposition in the perception of adaptation to climate change. Indeed, while several respondents interpreted adaptation as a resignation, many interviewees perceived adaptation as an opportunity. The analysis showed that adaptation referring to resignation includes the ideas of a non-action and detrimental to mitigation; an excuse for not changing; anxiety about climate change; fatalism; and human failure. Adaptation perceived as an opportunity is divided into a source of creativity; toward sustainable development; led by the emergency; and awareness and making society of its responsibilities. Our findings confirm that terminological ambiguity of the term “adaptation” has to be considered in the decision-making process, which can be influenced by the perception of stakeholders.     

Impact changes of climatic extremes on arable farming in the north of the Netherlands

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change in multiple ways. Here, we use the northern region of the Netherlands as a case study to explore how risk assessments for climate change impacts on crop production can address multiple vulnerabilities. We present a methodology, which we call agro climate calendar (ACC) that (i) includes potential yield losses, as well as loss of product quality, and (ii) assesses the risks of a variety of climate factors including weather extremes and the emergence and abundance of pests and diseases. Climate factors are defined for two time slices: 1990 (1976–2005) and 2040 (2026–2055); the frequency of occurrence of the factors is compared for the two periods, and the resulting frequency shifts are presented in a crop calendar on a monthly basis. This yields an indication of the magnitude and direction of changes in climatic conditions that can lead to damage by extreme events and pests and diseases. We present results for the two most important crops in the region, seed potato, and winter wheat. The results provide a good overview of risks from climate factors, and the most important threats and opportunities are identified. This semi-quantitative approach is firmly rooted in farm management, which is the level where operational and strategic decisions are made. Thus, the approach is well suited to assist local stakeholders such as farmers and policy makers to explore farm-level adaptation. This work is complementary to previous modeling work that focused mainly on the relation between mean climate change factors (i.e., temperature) and crop yield.     

GIS-based statistical model for the prediction of flood hazard susceptibility

At present, flood is the most significant environmental problem in the entire world. In this work, flood susceptibility (FS) analysis has been done in the Dwarkeswar River basin of Bengal basin, India. Fourteen flood causative factors extracted from different datasets like DEM, satellite images, geology, soil and rainfall data have been considered to predict FS. Three heuristic models and one statistical model fuzzy Logic (FL), frequency ratio (FR), multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and logistic regression (LR) have been used. The validating datasets are used to validate these models. The result shows that 68.71%, 68.7%, 60.56% and 48.51% area of the basin is under the moderate to very high FS by the MCDA, FR, FL and LR, respectively. The ROC curve with AUC analysis has shown that the accuracy level of the LR model (AUC?=?0.916) is very much successful to predict the flood. The rest of the models like FL, MCDA and FR (AUC?=?0.893, 0.857 and 0.835, respectively) have lesser accuracy than the LR model. The elevation was the most dominating factor with coefficient value of 19.078 in preparation of the FS according to the LR model. The outcome of this study can be implemented by local and state authority to minimize the flood hazard.

     

Climate change adaptation and the African fisheries: evidence from the UNFCCC National Communications

Climate change can cause significant (un)foreseen changes in the fisheries sector. However, adaptation has the potential to moderate some of the impacts. This paper explores the challenges faced by both freshwater and marine fisheries sector in addressing climate change and teases out intervention measures from 21 African countries. The paper uses document analysis and draws selected analysis parameters from the grounded theory. The data are obtained from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change National Communication reports. Among the key adaptation measures emerging from the analysis are: fish breeding, integrated coastal management, putting in place appropriate policies, water and flood management as well as research and development. The study concludes that adaptation in the African fisheries sector should be prioritised, an aspect that could also apply elsewhere in the world to enhance food security.     

Accountability in climate change governance and Caribbean SIDS

The good governance of institutions and regimes requires accountability suited to the particular context of each institution and regime. The paper examines the nature of accountability in climate change governance using the Caribbean region as a case study. In doing so, the paper makes two original contributions. First, using insights from the environmental governance literature, it presents a conceptual framework that categorises the types (levels, relationships and mechanisms) of accountability in governance that can be used to test accountability. The accountability framework comprises two levels (internal/external accountability); four relationships (normative, relational, decision and behavioural); and four mechanisms or processes through which accountability can be exercised (certification, monitoring, participation by stakeholders in the overseeing of projects and self-reporting). Second, through an analysis of survey and interview responses from Caribbean climate change experts, it reports on the nature of accountability in climate change governance in the context of Caribbean Small Island Developing States. To do this, first it identifies the actors involved in Caribbean climate governance at the regional and national scales. Then, using the framework, it examines which levels, relationships and processes exist within and between climate governance regional institutions, international partners, government agencies, non-governmental organisations and the private sector for climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts. The paper draws two main conclusions: first, generally actors valued accountability as a good governance norm. Secondly, limited resources and the perception that using the accountability mechanisms will retard policy implementation led to low levels of accountability in practice. Finally, the study examined how accountability can be enhanced in the climate change sector by ensuring that each of the elements of the framework is operationalised for both state and non-state climate change projects.     

Does information on the interdependence of climate adaptation measures stimulate collaboration? A case study analysis

A key issue in implementing adaptation strategies at the landscape level is that landowners take measures on their land collectively. We explored the role of information in collective decision-making in a landscape planning process in the Baakse Beek region, the Netherlands. Information was provided on (a) the degree to which measures contribute to multiple purposes, (b) whether they are beneficial to stakeholders representing different sectors of land use, and (c) the need for landscape-level implementation of adaptation measures. Our analysis suggests that the negotiation process resulted in collective decisions for more collaborative adaptation measures than could be expected from individual preferences previous to the planning session. Based on the results, it is plausible that the provided information enhanced integrative agreements by leading stakeholders to realize that they were mutually interdependent, both in acquiring individual benefits as well as in implementing the measures at the landscape level. Our findings are significant in the context of the emerging insight that targeted information provision for climate adaptation of landscapes can support collaboration between the relevant stakeholders.     

Climate change adaptation approaches with nomadic culture characteristics in Inner Mongolia grassland in China

Climate change adaptation is an important part of addressing climate warming. Inner Mongolia grassland is a sensitive and vulnerable area of climate and an important region for adaptation to climate change. New climate change adaptation approaches with nomadic culture characteristics should be exploded in the context of climate warming. In this paper, the different utilization pattern of grassland in different regions, the different modes of production and management and historical culture were analyzed first in Nenjiang–West Liaohe plain and Ke’erqin region, Inner Mongolia Plateau and Ordos Plateau. Then, nomadic culture on the grassland was discussed from the productivity to biodiversity, from local livestock variety to resource-used system. Finally, new approaches of climate change adaptation with inheriting the essence of nomadic culture were proposed, including protecting biodiversity and using resources reasonably, performing a practice of grazing suspension–rotational grazing system, fencing degenerated grassland to facilitate its growth, founding new farming and husbandry system on the grassland, and establishing an incentive mechanism favorable to grassland and ethical cultural protection.     

Greening flood protection through knowledge processes: lessons from the Markermeer dikes project in the Netherlands

Greening flood protection (GFP) is increasingly recognized as an adaptive and flexible approach to water management that is well suited to addressing uncertain futures associated with climate change. In the last decade, GFP knowledge and policies have developed rapidly, but implementation has been less successful and has run into numerous barriers. In this paper, we address the challenge of realizing green flood protection goals by specifically considering knowledge in the decision-making of a Dutch flood protection project in Lake Markermeer. In this project, an ecological knowledge arrangement and a traditional flood protection knowledge arrangement are compared and their interactions analysed. The analysis provides insight into the specific difficulties of implementing GFP measures and identifies ways to realize GFP goals. The primary challenge is twofold: First, a self-reinforcing cycle of knowledge production and decision-making in the flood protection domain inhibits the introduction of innovative and multifunctional approaches such as GFP; second, the distribution of power is severely unbalanced in terms of ecological enhancement and flood protection, favouring the latter. Implementation of GFP requires structural change and the integration of ecological and flood protection knowledge and policy. Potentially rewarding routes towards this integration are the exploration of shared interests in GFP and the creation of mutual dependency between knowledge arrangements. The case study and the insights it provides show that GFP is far from mainstream practice and that implementation requires serious effort and courage to break with historical practices.     

The relative importance of subjective and structural factors for individual adaptation to climate change by forest owners in Sweden

A growing body of literature argues that subjective factors can more accurately explain individual adaptation to climate change than objective measurers of adaptive capacity. Recent studies have shown that personal belief in climate change and affect are much better in explaining climate awareness and action than income, education or gender. This study focuses on the process of individual adaptation to climate change. It assesses and compares the influence of cognitive, experiential and structural factors on individuals’ views and intentions regarding climate change adaptation. Data from this study comes from a survey with 836 forest owners in Sweden. Ordinal and binary logistic regression was used to test hypotheses about the different factors. Results show that cognitive factors—namely personal level of trust in climate science, belief in the salience of climate change and risk assessment—are the only statistically significant factors that can directly explain individuals’ intention to adapt to climate change and their sense of urgency. Findings also suggest that structural or socio-demographic factors do not have a statistically significant influence on adaptation decision-making among Swedish forest owners. The study also offers valuable insights for communication interventions to promote adaptation. Findings strongly suggest that communication interventions should focus more strongly on building trust and addressing stakeholders’ individual needs and experiences.

     

Costs and benefits of adapting spatial planning to climate change: lessons learned from a large-scale urban development project in the Netherlands

Climate change increases the vulnerability of low-lying coastal areas. Careful spatial planning can reduce this vulnerability, provided that decision-makers have insight into the costs and benefits of adaptation options. This paper addresses the question which adaptation options are suitable, from an economic perspective, to adapt spatial planning to climate change at a regional scale. We apply social cost–benefit analysis to assess the net benefits of adaptation options that deal with the impacts of climate change-induced extreme events. From the methods applied and results obtained, we also aim at learning lessons for assessing climate adaptation options. The case study area, the Zuidplaspolder, is a large-scale urban development project in the Netherlands. The costs as well as the primary and secondary benefits of adaptation options relating to spatial planning (e.g. flood-proof housing and adjusted infrastructure) are identified and where possible quantified. Our results show that three adaptation options are not efficient investments, as the investment costs exceed the benefits of avoided damages. When we focus on ‘climate proofing’ the total area of the Zuidplaspolder, when the costs and benefits of all the presented adaptation options are considered together, the total package has a positive net present value. The study shows that it is possible to anticipate climate change impacts and assess the costs and benefits of adjusting spatial planning. We have learned that scenario studies provide a useful tool but that decision-making under climate change uncertainty also requires insight into the probabilities of occurrence of weather extremes in the future.     

Legitimate adaptive flood risk governance beyond the dikes: the cases of Hamburg,Helsinki and Rotterdam

It has recently been recommended that a shift from traditional flood prevention to more adaptive strategies is made, focusing on the reduction in and recovery from flood impacts as a means to improve resilience to climate impacts. This shift has had implications for the public–private divide in adaptive flood risk governance. In an urban context, it means that private actors such as developers and residents come into play, necessitating governance arrangements which cross the public–private divide. The division of responsibilities for water safety between the public and private sectors affects the way legitimacy is gained for these arrangements and raises new legitimacy issues. The paper offers an analysis of public and private responsibilities in adaptive flood risk governance arrangements, as well as of the legitimacy of the arrangements in the light of the public–private divide. A comparative case study is presented for three urban regeneration projects in un-embanked areas in Hamburg, Germany, Helsinki, Finland, and Rotterdam, the Netherlands, where adaptive strategies have been applied. The results show that network arrangements with joint public–private responsibilities use direct forms of participation and deliberation, but that these do not necessarily lead to more legitimate arrangements in the eyes of stakeholders as is often suggested in the literature. Both network and more public hierarchical arrangements can be perceived as quite legitimate under certain conditions.     

Policy entrepreneurs in international river basins—getting climate adaptation on the cross-border water policy agenda

In this study, we look at the role which water policy entrepreneurs play in promoting and stimulating climate adaptation measures in international river basins. In a Dutch-German case study in the Rhine delta, we explore the range of strategies that policy entrepreneurs employ in cross-border water management to effectively anchor and embed climate adaptation in the water policy debate.

We focus on climate adaptation on the local and regional scale in the Deltarhine region where increased flooding and prolonged drought periods are expected under the current climate change scenarios with a considerable impact on flood protection, agricultural activities, drinking water and ecosystem development.

We analyse the impact of policy entrepreneurs while coping with the challenging cross-border setting and dealing with structural differences in national systems such as the legal and institutional framework. It is shown that whilst the European water guidelines advocate a river basin approach across borders, the guidelines do not (yet) play a catalyst role regarding climate adaptation, and the presence and activities of policy entrepreneurs contribute in putting climate adaptation on the cross-border policy agenda.

Finally, marked differences in the presence of entrepreneurs in Germany and the Netherlands are observed for which two important complementary explanations are offered relating to contextual elements of power asymmetry and dependency as well as different policy styles and organisational cultures in both countries.

     

Institutional traps and vulnerability to changes in climate and flood regimes in Thailand

Vulnerabilities to floods in Thailand are changing as a result of many factors. Formal and informal institutions help shape exposure, sensitivity and capacities to respond of individuals, social groups and social-ecological systems. In this paper we draw on several case studies of flood events and flood-affected communities to first assess how current practices reflect various laws, procedures, programs and policies for managing floods and disasters and then explore the implications for dealing with additional challenges posed by climate change. Our analysis identifies several institutional traps which need to be overcome if vulnerability is to be reduced, namely capture of agendas by technical elites, single-level or centralized concentration of capacities, organizational fragmentation and overemphasis on reactive crisis management. Possible responses are to expand public participation in managing risks, build adaptive capacities at multiple levels and link them, integrate flood disaster management and climate change adaptation into development planning, prioritize risk reduction for socially vulnerable groups and strengthen links between knowledge and practice. Responses like these could help reduce vulnerabilities under current climate and flood regimes, while also improving capacities to handle the future which every way that unfolds.     

Regionalization of climate scenarios impacts on maize production and the role of cultivar and planting date as an adaptation strategy

Understanding climate change and its impacts on crops is crucial to determine adaptation strategies. Simulations of climate change impacts on agricultural systems are often run for individual sites. Nevertheless, the scaling up of crop model results can bring a more complete picture, providing better inputs for the decision-making process. The objective of this paper was to present a procedure to assess the regional impacts of climate scenarios on maize production, as well as the effect of crop cultivars and planting dates as an adaptation strategy. The focus region is Santa Catarina State, Brazil. The identification of agricultural areas cultivated with annual crops was done for the whole state, followed by the coupling of soil and weather information necessary for the crop modeling procedure (using crop model and regional circulation models). The impact on maize yields, so as the effect of adaptation strategies, was calculated for the 2012–2040 period assuming different maize cultivars and planting dates. Results showed that the exclusion of non-agricultural areas allowed the crop model to correctly simulate local and regional production. Simulations run without adaptation strategies for the 2012–2040 period showed reductions of 11.5–13.5 % in total maize production, depending on the cultivar. By using the best cultivar for each agricultural area, total state production was increased by 6 %; when using both adaptation strategies—cultivar and best planting date—total production increased by 15 %. This analysis showed that cultivar and planting date are feasible adaptation strategies to mitigate deleterious effects of climate scenarios, and crop models can be successfully used for regional assessments.     

New climate change information modifies frames and decisions of decision makers: an exploratory study in forest planning

Information helps decision makers to address and to decide about environmental problems. In the context of climate change adaptation, often knowledge is missing on how the available information from impact models affects the decision-making process. The main aim of this study was to explore the extent of ambiguity and how new climate change information influenced decision of forest planners. We investigated changes in decisions of planners about forestry actions representing species choice and forest tourism and expiry dates of these actions leading to environmental constraints in the provision of ecosystem services. Forest planners evaluated expiry dates using four forest ecosystem services: forest production, stand yield class, sequestered carbon, and potential tourism. Data were collected during workshops with eleven forest planners from three forest districts in Scotland. Presented climate change information modified the understanding and frames of planners about forestry actions assessed with accompanying expiry dates. Changes in the frames of planners often result in both earlier and later expiry dates. Ambiguity of planners was found to be dependent on diversity in frames and difficulty in evaluating multiple ecosystem services. These findings imply that due to ambiguity forest planners might find it hard to choose climate change adaptation measures and researchers can struggle to convince planners with new research findings.