Energy technology modelling of major carbon abatement options

The International Energy Agency Energy Technologies Perspectives (ETP) model is used to assess the prospects for carbon abatement options, including carbon capture and storage, up to 2050. Three main scenarios are considered: a Baseline scenario with current energy policies, an accelerated technology scenario that seeks to return energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2050 to their level in 2005, and a scenario for which CO₂ emissions are reduced at 50% of current levels by 2050. To reach these emissions reduction targets, annual global CO₂ emissions in the year 2050 must be reduced by 35 GtCO₂ to 48 GtCO₂ compared to the Baseline scenario. The analysis presented here shows that a broad portfolio of emissions reducing technologies will need to be deployed across all economic sectors of the global economy to reach these targets. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one of the suite of technologies employed across the globe to reach these targets. CCS adoption occurs in many aspects of the global economy and accounts for 14–19% of all emissions reductions. The total amount of CO₂ captured and stored in deep geologic reservoirs up to 2050 ranges between 5.1 GtCO₂ and 10.4 GtCO₂ in these two climate policy scenarios. Up to 2030, more than half of total CCS deployment takes place in OECD countries. After 2035, emerging economies account for more than half of total CCS use. This paper also demonstrates that as the climate policy becomes more stringent it will be necessary for CCS to deploy more extensively in many different industries outside of the electric power sector which often receives the most attention in discussions of CCS's role in addressing climate change.     

Prospects for cost-effective post-combustion CO2 capture from industrial CHPs

Industrial Combined Heat and Power plants (CHPs) are often operated at partial load conditions. If CO₂ is captured from a CHP, additional energy requirements can be fully or partly met by increasing the load. Load increase improves plant efficiency and, consequently, part of the additional energy consumption would be offset. If this advantage is large enough, industrial CHPs may become an attractive option for CO₂ capture and storage CCS. We therefore investigated the techno-economic performance of post-combustion CO₂ capture from small-to-medium-scale (50–200 MWe maximum electrical capacity) industrial Natural Gas Combined Cycle- (NGCC-) CHPs in comparison with large-scale (400 MWe) NGCCs in the short term (2010) and the mid-term future (2020–2025). The analyzed system encompasses NGCC, CO₂ capture, compression, and branch CO₂ pipeline.The technical results showed that CO₂ capture energy requirement for industrial NGCC-CHPs is significantly lower than that for 400 MWe NGCCs: up to 16% in the short term and up to 12% in the mid-term future. The economic results showed that at low heat-to-power ratio operations, CO₂ capture from industrial NGCC-CHPs at 100 MWe in the short term (41–44 €/tCO₂ avoided) and 200 MWe in the mid-term future (33–36 €/tCO₂ avoided) may compete with 400 MWe NGCCs (46–50 €/tCO₂ avoided short term, 30–35 €/tCO₂ avoided mid-term).     

Energy and carbon dioxide intensity of Thailand's steel industry and greenhouse gas emission projection toward the year 2050

The purpose of this article is to study the energy and carbon dioxide intensities of Thailand's steel industry and to propose greenhouse gas emission trends from the year 2011 to 2050 under plausible scenarios. The amount of CO₂ emission from iron and steel production was calculated using the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines in the boundary of production process (gate to gate). The results showed that energy intensity of semi-finished steel product was 2.84 GJ/t semi-finished steel and CO₂ intensity was 0.37 tCO_2eq/t semi-finished steel. Energy intensity of steel finishing process was 1.86 GJ/t finished steel and CO₂ intensity was 0.16 tCO_2eq/t finished steel. Using three plausible scenarios from Thailand's steel industry, S1: without integrated steel plant (baseline scenario), S2: with a traditional integrated BF–BOF route and S3: with an alternative integrated DR-EAF route; the Greenhouse Gas emissions from the year 2011 to 2050 were projected. In 2050, the CO₂ emission from S1 (baseline scenario) was 4.84 million tonnes, S2 was 21.96 million tonnes increasing 4.54 times from baseline scenario. The CO₂ emission from S3 was 7.12 million tonnes increasing 1.47 times from baseline scenario.     

Integration and evaluation of a power plant with a CaO-based CO2 capture system

This paper explores the integration and evaluation of a power plant with a CaO-based CO₂ capture system. There is a great amount of recoverable heat in the CaO-based CO₂ capture process. Five cases for the possible integration of a 600 MW power plant with CaO-based CO₂ capture process are considered in this paper. When the system is configured so that recovered heat is used to replace part of the boiler heat load (Case 2), modelling not only shows that this is the system recovering the most heat of 1008.8 MW but also results in the system with the lowest net power output of 446 MW and the second lowest of efficiency of 34.1%. It is indicated that system performance depends both on the amount of heat recovery and the type of heat utilization. When the system is configured so that a 400 MW power plant is built using the recovered heat (Case 4), modelling shows that this is the system with the most net power output of 846 MW, the highest efficiency of 36.8%, the lowest cost of electricity of 54.3 €/MWh and the lowest cost of CO₂ avoided of 28.9 €/tCO₂. This new built steam cycle will not affect the operation of the reference plant which vents its CO₂ to the atmosphere, highly reducing the connection between the CO₂ capture process and the reference plant which vents its CO₂ to the atmosphere. The average cost of electricity and the cost of CO₂ avoided of the five cases are about 58.9 €/kWh and 35.9 €/tCO₂, respectively.     

Actuarial risk assessment of expected fatalities attributable to carbon capture and storage in 2050

This study estimates the human cost of failures in the CCS industry in 2050, using the actuarial approach. The range of expected fatalities is assessed integrating all steps of the CCS chain: additional coal production, coal transportation, carbon capture, transport, injection and storage, based on empirical evidence from technical or social analogues. The main finding is that a few hundred fatalities per year should be expected if the technology is used to avoid emitting 3.67 GtCO₂ year⁻¹ in 2050 at baseload coal power plants. The large majority of fatalities are attributable to mining and delivering more coal. These risks compare to today's industrial hazards: technical, knowable and occupational dangers for which there are socially acceptable non-zero risk levels. Some contemporary European societies tolerate about one fatality per thousand years around industrial installations. If storage sites perform like that, then expected fatalities per year due to leakage should have a minor contribution in the total expected fatalities per year: less than one. But to statistically validate such a safety level, reliability theory and the technology roadmap suggest that CO₂ storage demonstration projects over the next 20 years have to cause exactly zero fatality.     

Pathways towards large-scale implementation of CO2 capture and storage: A case study for the Netherlands

We sketch four possible pathways how carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) (r)evolution may occur in the Netherlands, after which the implications in terms of CO₂ stored and avoided, costs and infrastructural requirements are quantified. CCS may play a significant role in decarbonising the Dutch energy and industrial sector, which currently emits nearly 100 Mt CO₂/year. We found that 15 Mt CO₂ could be avoided annually by 2020, provided some of the larger gas fields that become available the coming decade could be used for CO₂ storage. Halfway this century, the mitigation potential of CCS in the power sector, industry and transport fuel production is estimated at maximally 80–110 Mt CO₂/year, of which 60–80 Mt CO₂/year may be avoided at costs between 15 and 40 €/t CO₂, including transport and storage. Avoiding 30–60 Mt CO₂/year by means of CCS is considered realistic given the storage potential represented by Dutch gas fields, although it requires planning to assure that domestic storage capacity could be used for CO₂ storage. In an aggressive climate policy, avoiding another 50 Mt CO₂/year may be possible provided that nearly all capture opportunities that occur are taken. Storing such large amounts of CO₂ would only be possible if the Groningen gas field or large reservoirs in the British or Norwegian part of the North Sea will become available.     

Simultaneous CO2 injection and water production to optimise aquifer storage capacity

The estimates for geological CO₂ storage capacity worldwide vary, but it is generally believed that the capacity in saline aquifers will be sufficient for the amounts of CO₂ that will need to be stored. The effort required to select and qualify a geological storage site for safe storage will, however, be significant and storage capacity may be a limited resource regionally. Both from a economic and resource management perspective it is therefore important that potential storage sites are exploited to their full potential.In static capacity estimates, where the maximum stored amount of CO₂ is given as a fraction of the formation pore volume, typically arrive at efficiency factors in the range of a few per cents. Recent work has shown that when the dynamic behaviour of the injected CO₂ is taken into account, the efficiency factor will be reduced because of the increase in pore pressure in the region around the injection well(s). The increase in pore pressure will propagate much further than the CO₂. The EU directive on geological CO₂ storage specifically addresses the restriction that will apply when different storage sites are interacting due to pressure communication. Consequently, the pore pressure increase at the boundary of the storage license area will be an important limiting factor for the amount of CO₂ that can be injected.One obvious method to control the pore pressure is to produce water from the aquifer at some distance from the CO₂ injection wells. This paper discusses results from simulations of CO₂ injection in two aquifers on the Norwegian Continental Shelf; the Johansen aquifer and the southern part of the Utsira aquifer. These aquifers are candidates for injection of CO₂ shipped out via pipeline from the Norwegian West Coast. The injected amounts of CO₂ over a period of 50 years are 0.518 Gtonne for the Johansen aquifer and 1.04 Gtonne for the Utsira aquifer.Several design options for the injection operations are investigated: Injection of CO₂ without water production; injection into several wells to distribute the injected fluids and reduce the local pressure increase around each injection well; and injection with simultaneous production of water from one or more wells. The boundaries of the aquifer formations are assumed closed in all simulations. The possible consequences of other types of boundary conditions (semi-closed or open) are briefly discussed.     

中国工业园区低碳发展路径研究

中国政府承诺CO₂排放力争于2030年前达到峰值,努力争取2060年前实现碳中和。在工业部门深化应对气候变化和全面推进绿色转型的背景下,数量庞大的工业园区已然成为"十四五"乃至今后一个时期工业领域实现科学、精准碳减排的关键靶点。本研究首先剖析了中国工业园区低碳发展面临的挑战与机遇;进而以2015年为基准年,面向2035和2050年美丽中国建设两阶段战略目标,研究提出了工业园区碳减排的目标、路径和潜力,以期为园区深化低碳发展提供决策参考。研究显示,2015年中国工业园区CO₂排放总量约为28亿吨,占全国总排放量的31%。通过产业结构调整、能效提升、能源结构优化、碳捕集等低碳路径,2015-2050年全国园区预期可减排CO₂ 18亿吨,在2015年基础上减排60%以上;其中,2015-2035年减排8亿吨,2035-2050年减排10亿吨。     

The impact of electric passenger transport technology under an economy-wide climate policy in the United States: Carbon dioxide emissions,coal use,and carbon dioxide capture and storage

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have the potential to be an economic means of reducing direct (or tailpipe) carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the transportation sector. However, without a climate policy that places a limit on CO₂ emissions from the electric generation sector, the net impact of widespread deployment of PHEVs on overall U.S. CO₂ emissions is not as clear. A comprehensive analysis must consider jointly the transportation and electricity sectors, along with feedbacks to the rest of the energy system. In this paper, we use the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's MiniCAM model to perform an integrated economic analysis of the penetration of PHEVs and the resulting impact on total U.S. CO₂ emissions. In MiniCAM, the deployment of PHEVs (or any technology) is determined based on its relative economics compared to all other methods of providing fuels and energy carriers to serve passenger transportation demands. Under the assumptions used in this analysis where PHEVs obtain 50–60% of the market for passenger automobiles and light-duty trucks, the ability to deploy PHEVs under the two climate policies modelled here results in over 400 million tons (MT) CO₂ per year of additional cost-effective emissions reductions from the U.S. economy by 2050. In addition to investments in nuclear and renewables, one of the key technology options for mitigating emissions in the electric sector is CO₂ capture and storage (CCS). The additional demand for geologic CO₂ storage created by the introduction of the PHEVs is relatively modest: approximately equal to the cumulative geologic CO₂ storage demanded by two to three large 1000 megawatt (MW) coal-fired power plants using CCS over a 50-year period. The introduction of PHEVs into the U.S. transportation sector, coupled with climate policies such as those examined here, could also reduce U.S. demand for oil by 20–30% by 2050 compared to today's levels.     

The potential for increased atmospheric CO2 emissions and accelerated consumption of deep geologic CO2 storage resources resulting from the large-scale deployment of a CCS-enabled unconventional fossil fuels industry in the U.S.

Desires to enhance the energy security of the United States have spurred renewed interest in the development of abundant domestic heavy hydrocarbon resources including oil shale and coal to produce unconventional liquid fuels to supplement conventional oil supplies. However, the production processes for these unconventional fossil fuels create large quantities of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and this remains one of the key arguments against such development. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies could reduce these emissions and preliminary analysis of regional CO₂ storage capacity in locations where such facilities might be sited within the U.S. indicates that there appears to be sufficient storage capacity, primarily in deep saline formations, to accommodate the CO₂ from these industries. Nevertheless, even assuming wide-scale availability of cost-effective CO₂ capture and geologic storage resources, the emergence of a domestic U.S. oil shale or coal-to-liquids (CTL) industry would be responsible for significant increases in CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. The authors present modeling results of two future hypothetical climate policy scenarios that indicate that the oil shale production facilities required to produce 3 MMB/d from the Eocene Green River Formation of the western U.S. using an in situ retorting process would result in net emissions to the atmosphere of between 3000 and 7000 MtCO₂, in addition to storing potentially 900–5000 MtCO₂ in regional deep geologic formations via CCS in the period up to 2050. A similarly sized, but geographically more dispersed domestic CTL industry could result in 4000–5000 MtCO₂ emitted to the atmosphere in addition to potentially 21,000–22,000 MtCO₂ stored in regional deep geologic formations over the same period. While this analysis shows that there is likely adequate CO₂ storage capacity in the regions where these technologies are likely to deploy, the reliance by these industries on large-scale CCS could result in an accelerated rate of utilization of the nation's CO₂ storage resource, leaving less high-quality storage capacity for other carbon-producing industries including electric power generation.     

A model for the CO2 capture potential

Global warming is a result of increasing anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, and the consequences will be dramatic climate changes if no action is taken. One of the main global challenges in the years to come is therefore to reduce the CO₂ emissions.Increasing energy efficiency and a transition to renewable energy as the major energy source can reduce CO₂ emissions, but such measures can only lead to significant emission reductions in the long-term. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a promising technological option for reducing CO₂ emissions on a shorter time scale.A model to calculate the CO₂ capture potential has been developed, and it is estimated that 25 billion tonnes CO₂ can be captured and stored within the EU by 2050. Globally, 236 billion tonnes CO₂ can be captured and stored by 2050. The calculations indicate that wide implementation of CCS can reduce CO₂ emissions by 54% in the EU and 33% globally in 2050 compared to emission levels today.Such a reduction in emissions is not sufficient to stabilize the climate. Therefore, the strategy to achieve the necessary CO₂ emissions reductions must be a combination of (1) increasing energy efficiency, (2) switching from fossil fuel to renewable energy sources, and (3) wide implementation of CCS.     

Techno-economic analysis of natural gas combined cycles with post-combustion CO2 absorption, including a detailed evaluation of the development potential

We performed a detailed analysis of the potential future costs and performance of post-combustion CO₂ absorption in combination with a natural gas combined cycle (NGCC). After researching state-of-the-art technology, an Excel model was created to analyze possible developments in the performance of energy conversion, CO₂ capture, and CO₂ compression. The input variables for the three time frames we used were based on literature data, product information, expert opinions, and our own analysis. Using a natural gas price of 4.7 €/GJ, we calculated a potential decrease in the costs of electricity from 5.6 €ct/kWh in the short term to 4.8 €ct/kWh in the medium term and 4.5 €ct/kWh in the long term. The efficiency penalty is calculated to decline from 7.9%-points LHV in the short term to 4.9%-points and 3.7%-points in the medium and long terms, respectively. In combination with NGCC improvements, this may cause an improvement in the net efficiency, including CO₂ capture, from 49% in the short term to 55% and 58% in the medium and long terms, respectively. The total capital costs including capital costs of the NGCC ware calculated to decline from 880 in the short term to 750 and 690 €/kW in the medium and long terms, respectively, with a decline in the incremental capital costs due to capture from 350 in the short term to 270 and 240 €/kW in the medium and long terms, respectively. Finally, the avoidance costs may decline from 45 €/tCO₂ in the short term to 33 €/tCO₂ in the medium term and 28 €/tCO₂ in the long term.     

Scenario simulations of CO2 injection feasibility, plume migration and storage in a saline aquifer, Scania, Sweden

Deep saline aquifers have large capacity for geological CO₂ storage, but are generally not as well characterized as petroleum reservoirs. We here aim at quantifying effects of uncertain hydraulic parameters and uncertain stratigraphy on CO₂ injectivity and migration, and provide a first feasibility study of pilot-scale CO₂ injection into a multilayered saline aquifer system in southwest Scania, Sweden. Four main scenarios are developed, corresponding to different possible interpretations of available site data. Simulation results show that, on the one hand, stratigraphic uncertainty (presence/absence of a thin mudstone/claystone layer above the target storage formation) leads to large differences in predicted CO₂ storage in the target formation at the end of the test (ranging between 11% and 98% of injected CO₂ remaining), whereas other parameter uncertainty (in formation and cap rock permeabilities) has small impact. On the other hand, the latter has large impact on predicted injectivity, on which stratigraphic uncertainty has small impact. Salt precipitation at the border of the target storage formation affects CO₂ injectivity for all considered scenarios and injection rates. At low injection rates, salt is deposited also within the formation, considerably reducing its availability for CO₂ storage.     

CO2 transportation for carbon capture and storage: Sublimation of carbon dioxide from a dry ice bank

Climate change is being caused by greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂). Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is of interest to the scientific community as one way of achieving significant global reductions of atmospheric CO₂ emissions in the medium term. CO₂ would be captured from large stationary sources such as power plants and transported via pipelines under high pressure conditions to underground storage. If a downward leakage from a surface transportation system module occurs, the CO₂ would undergo a large temperature reduction and form a bank of “dry ice” on the ground surface; the sublimation of the gas from this bank represents an area source term for subsequent atmospheric dispersion, with an emission rate dependent on the energy balance at the bank surface. Gaseous CO₂ is denser than air and tends to remain close to the surface; it is an asphyxiant, a cerebral vasodilator and at high concentrations causes rapid circulatory insufficiency leading to coma and death. Hence a subliming bank of dry ice represents safety hazard. A model is presented for evaluating the energy balance and sublimation rate at the surface of a solid frozen CO₂ bank under different environmental conditions. The results suggest that subliming gas behaves as a proper dense gas (i.e. it remains close to the ground surface) only for low ambient wind speeds.     

Large-scale utilization of biomass energy and carbon dioxide capture and storage in the transport and electricity sectors under stringent CO2 concentration limit scenarios

Large-scale, dedicated commercial biomass energy systems are a potentially large contributor to meeting global climate policy targets by the end of the century. We use an integrated assessment model of energy and agriculture systems to show that, given a climate policy in which terrestrial carbon is appropriately valued equally with carbon emitted from the energy system, biomass energy has the potential to be a major component of achieving these low concentration targets. A key aspect of the research presented here is that the costs of processing and transporting biomass energy at much larger scales than current experience are explicitly incorporated into the modeling. From the scenario results, 120–160 EJ/year of biomass energy is produced globally by midcentury and 200–250 EJ/year by the end of this century. In the first half of the century, much of this biomass is from agricultural and forest residues, but after 2050 dedicated cellulosic biomass crops become the majority source, along with growing utilization of waste-to-energy. The ability to draw on a diverse set of biomass-based feedstocks helps to reduce the pressure for drastic large-scale changes in land use and the attendant environmental, ecological, and economic consequences those changes would unleash. In terms of the conversion of bioenergy feedstocks into value added energy, this paper demonstrates that biomass is and will continue to be used to generate electricity as well as liquid transportation fuels. A particular focus of this paper is to show how climate policies and technology assumptions – especially the availability of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies – affect the decisions made about where the biomass is used in the energy system. The potential for net-negative electric sector emissions through the use of CCS with biomass feedstocks provides an attractive part of the solution for meeting stringent emissions constraints; we find that at carbon prices above $150/tCO₂, over 90% of biomass in the energy system is used in combination with CCS. Despite the higher technology costs of CCS, it is a very important tool in controlling the cost of meeting a target, offsetting the venting of CO₂ from sectors of the energy system that may be more expensive to mitigate, such as oil use in transportation. CCS is also used heavily with other fuels such as coal and natural gas, and by 2095 a total of 1530 GtCO₂ has been stored in deep geologic reservoirs. The paper also discusses the role of cellulosic ethanol and Fischer–Tropsch biomass derived transportation fuels as two representative conversion processes and shows that both technologies may be important contributors to liquid fuels production, with unique costs and emissions characteristics.     

Methodology for CO2 chain analysis

The paper presents a methodology for CO₂ chain analysis with particular focus on the impact of technology development on the total system economy. The methodology includes the whole CO₂ chain; CO₂ source, CO₂ capture, transport and storage in aquifers or in oil reservoirs for enhanced oil recovery. It aims at supporting the identification of feasible solutions and assisting the selection of the most cost-effective options for carbon capture and storage. To demonstrate the applicability of the methodology a case study has been carried out to illustrate the possible impact of technology improvements and market development. The case study confirms that the CO₂-quota price to a large extent influence the project economy and dominates over potential technology improvements. To be economic feasible, the studied chains injecting the CO₂ in oil reservoirs for increased oil production require a CO₂-quota price in the range of 20–27 €/tonne CO₂, depending on the technology breakthrough. For the chains based on CO₂ storage in saline aquifers, the corresponding CO₂-quota price varies up to about 40 €/tonne CO₂.     

Regulatory challenges and managing public perception in planning a geological storage pilot project in Australia

The implementation of geological storage of CO₂ requires not only further research and development but also the demonstration of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology as a viable option. A pilot program is an important first step towards building industry and community confidence in the application of CCS. The Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Technologies (CO2CRC), Australia's leading research organisation in CCS, has initiated a comprehensive research and demonstration program in the Otway Basin in South-West Victoria. As the first project of its kind in Australia, the Otway Basin Pilot Project (OBPP) has faced a number of regulatory and organisational challenges while having to concurrently address public perception. The Otway Basin site with its natural CO₂ accumulations and many depleted natural gas fields offers an appropriate CO₂ storage site to test scientific and regulatory concepts and evaluate public response through social research. The project aims to show that CO₂ can be safely captured, transported and stored deep underground under local conditions, and also monitored and verified. Planning has been ongoing for over a year, baseline studies are underway and the project is targeted to start injection in 2007.