Changes in Species Abundance, Distribution, and Diversity in a Central European Bird Community

We analyzed possible causes of changes in species abundance, range size, and diversity as well as extinctions and colonizations in a central European bird community. Using data from the semiquantitative "Lake Constance" breeding bird atlas, we demonstrated that changes in regional abundances from 1980–1981 to 1990–1992 of 151 coexisting bird species were influenced by breeding habitat and migratory status. Significant declines were found in populations of farmland species and long-distance migrants. Farmland species lost parts of their ranges but hardly changed in local abundance in sites where they still occurred. In contrast, declines in long-distance migrants were caused by significant declines in local abundance with only slight loss of occupied range. Regional extinctions and colonizations were predictable from overall population trends. For example, all species that went extinct were either farmland species or long-distance migrants. Avian community composition was influenced by disproportionate declines of abundant species. This led to declines in the total number of breeding pairs and in community biomass and to increases in community evenness, but to only slight declines in species richness. Future conservation efforts in Europe need to focus more on farmland species and on understanding causes for the declines of long-distance migrants.     

Bird extirpations and community dynamics in an Andean cloud forest over 100 years of land-use change

Long-term studies to understand biodiversity changes remain scarce—especially so for tropical mountains. We examined changes from 1911 to 2016 in the bird community of the cloud forest of San Antonio, a mountain ridge in the Colombian Andes. We evaluated the effects of past land-use change and assessed species vulnerability to climate disruption. Forest cover decreased from 95% to 50% by 1959, and 33 forest species were extirpated. From 1959 to 1990, forest cover remained stable, and an additional 15 species were lost—a total of 29% of the forest bird community. Thereafter, forest cover increased by 26% and 17 species recolonized the area. The main cause of extirpations was the loss of connections to adjacent forests. Of the 31 (19%) extirpated birds, 25 have ranges peripheral to San Antonio, mostly in the lowlands. Most still occurred regionally, but broken forest connections limited their recolonization. Other causes of extirpation were hunting, wildlife trade, and water diversion. Bird community changes included a shift from predominantly common species to rare species; forest generalists replaced forest specialists that require old growth, and functional groups, such as large-body frugivores and nectarivores, declined disproportionally. All water-dependent birds were extirpated. Of the remaining 122 forest species, 19 are vulnerable to climate disruption, 10 have declined in abundance, and 4 are threatened. Our results show unequivocal species losses and changes in community structure and abundance at the local scale. We found species were extirpated after habitat loss and fragmentation, but forest recovery stopped extirpations and helped species repopulate. Land-use changes increased species vulnerability to climate change, and we suggest reversing landscape transformation may restore biodiversity and improve resistance to future threats.     

Long-term trend of the waterbird community breeding in a heavily man-modified coastal lagoon: the case of the important bird area “Lagoon of Venice”

The aim of the paper is to examine the temporal and spatial changes observed over a 25-year period in the waterbird community nesting in the largest coastal lagoon around the Mediterranean; to examine driving factors for the observed changes; to address the most urgent conservation actions. Published sources and field surveys made between March and July were used to assess number of breeding pairs of the commonest waterbirds in 1990–1992, 2000–02 and 2012–14. The breeding waterbird community exhibited several changes in its structure, with an overall positive trend; the number of species increased from 14 to 25 and the mean yearly abundance increased from 6155 to 14,008 pairs. The diversity (H′) increased slightly, whereas similarity indices and nMDS ordination both highlighted clear differences between 1990 and 1992 and 2012–2014 communities. The increase in richness and abundance were mostly due to the immigration of birds from nearby wetlands, to the partial recovery of lagoon ecological conditions since the end of the 1980s and to the occurrence of suitable man-made habitats, such as fish farms, dredge islands and a constructed wetland. The fraction of the population nesting at artificial sites and fish farms increased from 50% in 1990–1992 till 80% in 2012–2014, highlighting the importance of artificial breeding sites in costal lagoons. At the opposite natural nesting habitats, such as saltmarshes and beaches are losing importance for breeding waterbirds, thus requiring urgent conservation measures.     

Effects of climate change and anthropogenic activity on ranges of vertebrate species endemic to the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau over 40 years

Over the past 40 years, the climate has been changing and human disturbance has increased in the vast Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). These 2 factors are expected to affect the distribution of a large number of endemic vertebrate species. However, quantitative relationships between range shifts and climate change and human disturbance of these species in the QTP have rarely been evaluated. We used occurrence records of 19 terrestrial vertebrate species (birds, mammals, amphibians, and reptiles) occurring in the QTP from 1980 to 2020 to quantify the effects of climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the distribution of these 4 taxonomic groups and estimated species range changes in each species. The trend in distribution changes differed among the taxonomic groups, although, generally, ranges shifted to central QTP. Climate change contributed more to range variation than human disturbance (the sum of the 4 climatic variables contributed more than the sum of the 4 human disturbance variables for all 4 taxonomic groups). Suitable geographic range increased for most mammals, amphibians, and reptiles (+27.6%, +18.4%, and +27.8% on average, respectively), whereas for birds range decreased on average by 0.9%. Quantitative evidence for climate change and human disturbance associations with range changes for endemic vertebrate species in the QTP can provide useful insights into biodiversity conservation under changing environments.     

Impacts of Livestock Grazing and Tree Clearing on Birds of Woodland and Riparian Habitats

Abstract:  We investigated the impact of pastoral management on birds in subtropical grassy eucalypt woodland in southeastern Queensland, Australia, where the patterns of land management have made it possible to disentangle the effects of livestock grazing from those of tree clearing. We recorded changes in bird species composition, density, and relative abundance across two woodland habitat types (riparian and nonriparian) and two levels of clearing (wooded and nonwooded) and three levels of livestock grazing (low, moderate, and high) replicated over space (1000 km²) and time (2001–2002). We predicted that species that depend on understory vegetation would be most negatively affected by livestock grazing. A Bayesian generalized linear model showed that the level of grazing had the greatest effect when trees were present. When trees were absent, the impact of grazing was overshadowed by the effects of a lack of trees. Over 65% of species responded to different levels of grazing, and the abundance of 42% of species varied markedly with habitat and grazing. The most common response to grazing was high species relative abundance under low levels of grazing (28% of species), species absence at high levels of grazing (20%), and an increase in abundance with increasing grazing (18%). Despite having similar bird assemblages, the effect of grazing was stronger in riparian habitat than in adjacent woodland habitat. Our results suggest that any level of commercial livestock grazing is detrimental to some woodland birds, particularly the understory-dependant species, as predicted. Nevertheless, provided trees are not cleared, a rich and abundant bird fauna can coexist with moderate levels of grazing. Habitats with high levels of grazing, on the other hand, resulted in a species-poor bird assemblage dominated by birds that are increasing in abundance nationally .     

Songbird Use of Gallery Woodlands in Recently Cleared and Older Settled Landscapes of the Selva Lacandona, Chiapas, Mexico

Many regions of Central America have undergone wide-scale habitat change as land has been converted for cultivation or grazing. Clearing for agriculture often leaves a variety of regenerating and remnant patches of wooded vegetation. Of particular importance is arroyo vegetation, or strips of trees or tall shrubs growing along streams. Although it is widely acknowledged that tropical arroyo vegetation supports high densities of birds, as avian habitat it remains poorly studied. We used point counts to study populations of migrant and resident songbirds in the arroyo vegetation of settled areas of the Selva Lacandona adjacent to the Montes Azules Biosphere Reserve of southeastern México. Two study areas were established on lands that had been cleared and settled 20–35 and 10 years previously. Our objectives were to assess the value of arroyo vegetation to the conservation of avian species diversity and abundance in agricultural landscapes and to compare the composition and abundance of songbirds in cleared areas settled at different times over a 35-year period. Arroyo vegetation had a wide diversity of songbird species that, in overall terms, differed little between those landscapes cleared recently and those cleared up to 35 years previously. In both areas we found a high abundance of habitat generalists and a smaller number of forest-dependent species, particularly migrants. Loss of forest specialists occurs rapidly, with little further loss as the arroyos become increasingly isolated. Our data also suggest that birds do not crowd into limited habitat as the surrounding vegetation is eliminated, implying that the overall carrying capacity of the agricultural landscape is greatly enhanced as larger areas of arroyo vegetation are protected. Protection of arroyo vegetation will increase the diversity of birds living in agricultural areas and can be achieved simply by expanding upon land-use practices currently in use.     

Planning for Long, Wide Conservation Corridors on Private Lands in the Oak Ridges Moraine, Ontario, Canada

Abstract:  We explored the role of conservation biology in the planning of a natural-heritage system that includes long, wide conservation corridors situated primarily on private lands, and established to connect natural core areas in the Oak Ridges Moraine of Ontario, Canada. We based our review on government documents, semi-structured interviews with participants involved in this land-use planning process, and our involvement with the issue from 1990 through 2002. Conservation biology had a major influence on the outcome of the land-use planning process for this moraine. The landform was identified as an area of value by the environmental movement within the context of a number of ongoing government studies that began in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Conservation biologists and planners in government, the environmental movement, and the private sector carried out work related to conservation biology, including inventories and the development and application of criteria for the delineation of core areas and conservation corridors. Once the political timing was favorable (2001–2002), decision makers linked the science of conservation biology to planning policies and law in Ontario. The Oak Ridges Moraine land-use planning process was precedent setting in Canada, and possibly internationally. To our knowledge this is the first time long, wide conservation corridors on private lands were regulated through land-use-planning legislation and led to restrictions on urban development and aggregate resource extraction.     

Monitoring Mammal Populations in Costa Rican Protected Areas under Different Hunting Restrictions

Abstract: It is necessary to assess whether the management of protected areas is achieving the objectives set for them. In particular, changes and trends in wildlife populations should be documented. We compared the 1990 abundance of mammals in two Costa Rican protected areas, Corcovado National Park (CNP) and Golfo Dulce Forest Reserve (GDFR), with similar environmental characteristics but different hunting restrictions and levels of protection. We also monitored the abundance of mammals in CNP over a 4-year period. We also devised an inexpensive method of monitoring tropical rainforest mammal populations in a timely and efficient manner. The method is based on the use of mammal track records and arboreal mammal sightings and requires little effort. With this method 20 mammal species were recorded at CNP and 15 at GDFR. Species were consistently less abundant in GDFR than in CNP, principally those species preferred by hunters. Species were grouped according to whether or not they are used as food and whether they are locally or globally threatened or not threatened. The abundance of all these groups of species in GDFR was 6–28% the abundance in CNP. During 1990–1994, overall mammal abundance in CNP remained relatively stable, but there was considerable variability among species. As a group, both species used for food and globally threatened species declined in abundance during that period in CNP. The abundance of all groups of species declined from 1992 to 1994, coinciding with a reduction in hunting vigilance at CNP. Evidence suggests that the main factor differentiating the abundance of mammals in the two protected areas, and at CNP during the study period, was the level of hunting. Golfo Dulce Forest Reserve seems to be achieving only partial success in protecting wildlife, whereas Corcovado National Park seems to be considerably more effective, although not entirely successful.     

Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios

Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (-16%) and pasture (-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate deviations from the business-as-usual scenario. Given the magnitude of predicted land-use change, any attempts to identify a sustainable future or to predict the effects of climate change will have to take likely land-use changes into account. Econometric models that can simulate land-use change for broad areas with fine resolution are necessary to predict trends in ecosystem service provision and biodiversity persistence.     

Ecological Effectiveness of Agri-Environment Schemes in Different Agricultural Landscapes in The Netherlands

Abstract:  Agri-environment schemes are an instrument used by western European countries to counteract the negative effects of contemporary agriculture on biodiversity, but not much is known about their effectiveness. We investigated the ecological effects of Dutch agri-environment schemes aimed at promoting botanical diversity or meadow birds, and we tested whether the effectiveness of the schemes depends on landscape type or structure. In three different types of landscape, we surveyed plants, birds, bees, and hover flies on 78 paired fields that either had agri-environment schemes or were managed conventionally, and we collected data on a range of different environmental variables. Neither plant species richness nor abundance of meadow birds was higher on fields with agri-environment schemes. Landscape type had a significant effect on both species groups, but the effects of the schemes were independent of landscape type. Neither the diversity of plants nor the abundance of birds was related to any of the environmental variables. Agri-environment schemes designed to promote plant species richness or bird abundance did have positive side-effects because they enhanced the species richness of bees and hover flies, irrespective of the type of landscape. Furthermore, landscape type, groundwater level (hover flies), and area of wooded edges (bees) significantly affected both species groups. The failure of the schemes to promote the target species may be related to the high intensity of land use in The Netherlands. Simple conservation measures taken by farmers may not be sufficient to counteract the impact of factors that are often controlled at the landscape level (e.g., hydrology). Similar studies in other countries are needed to place the results of our study into a European context.     

Climate correlates of 20 years of trophic changes in a high-elevation riparian system

The consequences of climate change for ecosystem structure and function remain largely unknown. Here, I examine the ability of climate variation to explain long-term changes in bird and plant populations, as well as trophic interactions in a high-elevation riparian system in central Arizona, USA, based on 20 years of study. Abundances of dominant deciduous trees have declined dramatically over the 20 years, correlated with a decline in overwinter snowfall. Snowfall can affect overwinter presence of elk, whose browsing can significantly impact deciduous tree abundance. Thus, climate may affect the plant community indirectly through effects on herbivores, but may also act directly by influencing water availability for plants. Seven species of birds were found to initiate earlier breeding associated with an increase in spring temperature across years. The advance in breeding time did not affect starvation of young or clutch size. Earlier breeding also did not increase the length of the breeding season for single-brooded species, but did for multi-brooded species. Yet, none of these phenology-related changes was associated with bird population trends. Climate had much larger consequences for these seven bird species by affecting trophic levels below (plants) and above (predators) the birds. In particular, the climate-related declines in deciduous vegetation led to decreased abundance of preferred bird habitat and increased nest predation rates. In addition, summer precipitation declined over time, and drier summers also were further associated with greater nest predation in all species. The net result was local extinction and severe population declines in some previously common bird species, whereas one species increased strongly in abundance, and two species did not show clear population changes. These data indicate that climate can alter ecosystem structure and function through complex pathways that include direct and indirect effects on abundances and interactions of multiple trophic components.     

Impacts of tropical forest disturbance on species vital rates

Tropical forests are experiencing enormous threats from deforestation and habitat degradation. Much knowledge of the impacts of these land-use changes on tropical species comes from studies examining patterns of richness and abundance. Demographic vital rates (survival, reproduction, and movement) can also be affected by land-use change in a way that increases species vulnerability to extirpation, but in many cases these impacts may not be manifested in short-term changes in abundance or species richness. We conducted a literature review to assess current knowledge and research effort concerning how land-use change affects species vital rates in tropical forest vertebrates. We found a general paucity of empirical research on demography across taxa and regions, with some biases toward mammals and birds and land-use transitions, including fragmentation and agriculture. There is also considerable between-species variation in demographic responses to land-use change, which could reflect trait-based differences in species sensitivity, complex context dependencies (e.g., between-region variation), or inconsistency in methods used in studies. Efforts to improve understanding of anthropogenic impacts on species demography are underway, but there is a need for increased research effort to fill knowledge gaps in understudied tropical regions and taxa. The lack of information on demographic impacts of anthropogenic disturbance makes it difficult to draw definite conclusions about the magnitude of threats to tropical ecosystems under anthropogenic pressures. Thus, determining conservation priorities and improving conservation effectiveness remains a challenge.     

A Mechanistic Approach to Evaluation of Umbrella Species as Conservation Surrogates

Abstract:  Although species with large area requirements are sometimes used as umbrella species, their general utility as conservation tools is uncertain. We surveyed the species diversity of birds, butterflies, carabids, and forest-floor plants in forest sites across an area (1600 km²) in which we delineated large breeding home ranges of Northern Goshawk ( Accipiter gentilis ). We tested whether protection of the home ranges could serve as an effective umbrella to protect sympatric species of the four taxa. We also used an empirical habitat model of occupancy of home range to examine mechanisms by which the Northern Goshawk acts as an umbrella species. Among species richness, abundance, and species composition of the four taxa, only abundance and species composition of birds differed between sites located inside and outside home ranges, which was due to greater abundance of bird species that were prey of Northern Goshawks inside the home ranges. Thus, although home range indicated areas with high abundance of certain bird prey species, it was not effective as an indicator of the species diversity of all four taxa. We also did not find any difference in species richness, abundance, and species composition between sites predicted as occupied and unoccupied using the habitat model. In contrast, when we selected sites on the basis of each habitat variable in the model, habitat variables that selected sites either in agricultural or forested landscapes encompassed sites with high species richness or particular species composition. This result suggests that the low performance of the Northern Goshawk as an umbrella species is due to this species' preference for habitat in both agricultural and forested landscapes. Species that can adjust to changes in habitat conditions may not act as effective umbrella species despite having large home ranges.     

Importance of jumbo squid Dosidicus gigas (Orbigny, 1835) in the pelagic ecosystem of the central Gulf of California

The Humboldt squid is an important predator in the pelagic ecosystem of the central Gulf of California and the commercial catch of this species has increased over the past decade, probable due to a decrease of several top predators (sharks, large pelagic fish and the marine mammals) and the optimal feeding conditions in this area. Its high abundance and important position in the pelagic food web was quantified through two trophic models of the pelagic ecosystem of the central Gulf of California. Models represented conditions in 1980 and 2002, to document the decadal changes in ecosystem structure and function. The models were composed of 18 functional groups, including marine mammals, birds, fish, mollusks, crustaceans, and primary producers. Model results show direct negative effects on principal prey groups such as myctophids and pelagic red crab and positive effects on sharks, marine mammals and specifically sperm whales. It thus appears that the jumbo squid has an important role in the ecosystem and plays a central part in the overall energy flow as main food item for most top predators, and due to its predation of organisms on lower tropic levels.     

Land‐Cover Change and Avian Diversity in the Conterminous United States

Abstract: Changes in land use and land cover have affected and will continue to affect biological diversity worldwide. Yet, understanding the spatially extensive effects of land‐cover change has been challenging because data that are consistent over space and time are lacking. We used the U.S. National Land Cover Dataset Land Cover Change Retrofit Product and North American Breeding Bird Survey data to examine land‐cover change and its associations with diversity of birds with principally terrestrial life cycles (landbirds) in the conterminous United States. We used mixed‐effects models and model selection to rank associations by ecoregion. Land cover in 3.22% of the area considered in our analyses changed from 1992 to 2001, and changes in species richness and abundance of birds were strongly associated with land‐cover changes. Changes in species richness and abundance were primarily associated with changes in nondominant types of land cover, yet in many ecoregions different types of land cover were associated with species richness than were associated with abundance. Conversion of natural land cover to anthropogenic land cover was more strongly associated with changes in bird species richness and abundance than persistence of natural land cover in nearly all ecoregions and different covariates were most strongly associated with species richness than with abundance in 11 of 17 ecoregions. Loss of grassland and shrubland affected bird species richness and abundance in forested ecoregions. Loss of wetland was associated with bird abundance in forested ecoregions. Our findings highlight the value of understanding changes in nondominant land cover types and their association with bird diversity in the United States.     

Regeneration of Native Trees in the Presence of Invasive Saltcedar in the Colorado River Delta, Mexico

Abstract:  Many riparian zones in the Sonoran Desert have been altered by elimination of the normal flood regime; such changes to the flow regime have contributed to the spread of saltcedar ( Tamarix ramosissma Ledeb.), an exotic, salt-tolerant shrub. It has been proposed that reestablishment of a natural flow regime on these rivers might permit passive restoration of native trees, without the need for aggressive saltcedar clearing programs. We tested this proposition in the Colorado River delta in Mexico, which has received a series of large-volume water releases from U.S. dams over the past 20 years. We mapped the vegetation of the delta riparian corridor through ground and aerial surveys (1999–2002) and satellite imagery (1992–2002) and related vegetation changes to river flood flows and fire events. Although saltcedar is still the dominant plant in the delta, native cottonwood (  Populus fremontii S. Wats.) and willow ( Salix gooddingii C. Ball) trees have regenerated multiple times because of frequent flood releases from U.S. dams since 1981. Tree populations are young and dynamic (ages 5–10 years). The primary cause of tree mortality between floods is fire. Biomass in the floodplain, as measured by the normalized difference vegetation index on satellite images, responds positively even to low-volume (but long-duration) flood events. Our results support the hypothesis that restoration of a pulse flood regime will regenerate native riparian vegetation despite the presence of a dominant invasive species, but fire management will be necessary to allow mature tree stands to develop.     

Incidental Nest Predation and Lark Conservation in an Iberian Semiarid Shrubsteppe

Steppe larks are rare species in Europe, and several reserves have been established in Spain to promote their conservation. Little is known, however, about the benefits these reserves provide for Iberian larks. At Las Amoladeras Bird Reserve predation of lark nests was high according to the Mayfield method: 68–99% of nests were preyed upon, primarily by red foxes ( Vulpes vulpes ) and feral dogs. A negative correlation between canid abundance and daily nest survival was detected, but there was no relationship between predator abundance and lark density. There was a positive correlation between canid track abundance and rabbit density. Evidence indicated that lark nest predation in the Iberian shrubsteppes was an example of incidental predation (Vickery et al. 1992), which nevertheless has caused serious conservation problems for the larks. Lark densities in some areas decreased 80% during the 3 years of our study. Incidental predation, which is determined by rabbit abundance, is a complicating factor for the conservation of these ground-nesting birds and should be taken into account in the management of reserves for steppe birds.     

Climate Change, Elevational Range Shifts, and Bird Extinctions

Abstract:  Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges, four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios, and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8° C, projected a best guess of 400–550 landbird extinctions, and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100. For Western Hemisphere landbirds, intermediate extinction estimates based on climate-induced changes in actual distributions ranged from 1.3% (1.1° C warming) to 30.0% (6.4° C warming) of these species. Worldwide, every degree of warming projected a nonlinear increase in bird extinctions of about 100–500 species. Only 21% of the species predicted to become extinct in our scenarios are currently considered threatened with extinction. Different habitat-loss and surface-warming scenarios predicted substantially different futures for landbird species. To improve the precision of climate-induced extinction estimates, there is an urgent need for high-resolution measurements of shifts in the elevational ranges of species. Given the accelerating influence of climate change on species distributions and conservation, using elevational limits in a tested, standardized, and robust manner can improve conservation assessments of terrestrial species and will help identify species that are most vulnerable to global climate change. Our climate-induced extinction estimates are broadly similar to those of bird species at risk from other factors, but these estimates largely involve different sets of species.     

Modelling with uncertainty: Introducing a probabilistic framework to predict animal population dynamics

Predictive population models designed to assist managers and policy makers require an explicit treatment of inherent uncertainty and variability. These are particular concerns when modelling non-native and reintroduced species, when data have been collected within one geographical or ecological context but predictions are required for another, or when extending models to predict the consequences of environmental change (e.g., climate or land-use). We present an aspatial, probabilistic framework of hierarchical process models for predicting population growth even when data are sparse or of poor quality. Insight into the factors affecting population dynamics in real landscapes can be provided and Kullback–Leibler distances are used to compare the relative output of models. This flexible yet robust framework gives easily interpretable results, allowing managers as well as modellers to invalidate anomalous models and apply others to real-life scenarios.We illustrate the framework’s power with a meta-analysis of European wild boar (Sus scrofa) data. We test hypotheses about the effect of geographic region, hunting and mast years on wild boar population growth, to build models of wild boar dynamics for the UK. The framework quantifies the importance of hunting pressure as a driver of population growth, and confirms that reproductive success is greatly decreased in poor mast years, suggesting that the key to predicting wild boar dynamics is to ascertain local hunting pressure and to better understand changing food availability. Geography had no significant effect, indicating that it is not a good proxy for modelling the impact of change in climate or land-use on wild boar populations at the European scale. We use the framework to predict population abundance 9 years after an isolated population of wild boar established in the UK; in a comparison with the only field data and two independent modelling exercises, our framework provides the most robust and informative results.     

Breeding Distributions of North American Bird Species Moving North as a Result of Climate Change

Abstract:  Geographic changes in species distributions toward traditionally cooler climes is one hypothesized indicator of recent global climate change. We examined distribution data on 56 bird species. If global warming is affecting species distributions across the temperate northern hemisphere, these data should show the same northward range expansions of birds that have been reported for Great Britain. Because a northward shift of distributions might be due to multidirectional range expansions for multiple species, we also examined the possibility that birds with northern distributions may be expanding their ranges southward. There was no southward expansion of birds with a northern distribution, indicating that there is no evidence of overall range expansion of insectivorous and granivorous birds in North America. As predicted, the northern limit of birds with a southern distribution showed a significant shift northward (2.35 km/year). This northward shift is similar to that observed in previous work conducted in Great Britain: the widespread nature of this shift in species distributions over two distinct geographical regions and its coincidence with a period of global warming suggests a connection with global climate change.