Response of tree growth to a changing climate in boreal central Canada: A comparison of empirical,process-based,and hybrid modelling approaches

The impact of 2 × CO₂ driven climate change on radial growth of boreal tree species Pinus banksiana Lamb., Populus tremuloides Michx. and Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP growing in the Duck Mountain Provincial Forest of Manitoba (DMPF), Canada, is simulated using empirical and process-based model approaches. First, empirical relationships between growth and climate are developed. Stepwise multiple-regression models are conducted between tree-ring growth increments (TRGI) and monthly drought, precipitation and temperature series. Predictive skills are tested using a calibration–verification scheme. The established relationships are then transferred to climates driven by 1× and 2 × CO₂ scenarios using outputs from the Canadian second-generation coupled global climate model. Second, empirical results are contrasted with process-based projections of net primary productivity allocated to stem development (NPP_s). At the finest scale, a leaf-level model of photosynthesis is used to simulate canopy properties per species and their interaction with the variability in radiation, temperature and vapour pressure deficit. Then, a top-down plot-level model of forest productivity is used to simulate landscape-level productivity by capturing the between-stand variability in forest cover. Results show that the predicted TRGI from the empirical models account for up to 56.3% of the variance in the observed TRGI over the period 1912–1999. Under a 2 × CO₂ scenario, the predicted impact of climate change is a radial growth decline for all three species under study. However, projections obtained from the process-based model suggest that an increasing growing season length in a changing climate could counteract and potentially overwhelm the negative influence of increased drought stress. The divergence between TRGI and NPP_s simulations likely resulted, among others, from assumptions about soil water holding capacity and from calibration of variables affecting gross primary productivity. An attempt was therefore made to bridge the gap between the two modelling approaches by using physiological variables as TRGI predictors. Results obtained in this manner are similar to those obtained using climate variables, and suggest that the positive effect of increasing growing season length would be counteracted by increasing summer temperatures. Notwithstanding uncertainties in these simulations (CO₂ fertilization effect, feedback from disturbance regimes, phenology of species, and uncertainties in future CO₂ emissions), a decrease in forest productivity with climate change should be considered as a plausible scenario in sustainable forest management planning of the DMPF.     

Climate and international trade policies when emissions affect production possibilities

In this paper, we develop a model of international trade and climate change in which emission discharges arising from production have a feedback effect on national production sectors by impacting upon effective factor endowments. With this context, the objectives are, first, to provide a general characterization of Pareto-efficient climate and trade policies and, second, to examine the possibility – starting from non-Pareto-efficient equilibria – for Pareto-improving environmental policies. We provide conditions under which several particular reforms of carbon taxes are welfare improving.     

Do voluntary pollution reduction programs (VPRs) spur or deter environmental innovation? Evidence from 33/50

We study whether a government-sponsored voluntary pollution reduction program (VPR) promotes or deters the development of new environmental technologies that yield future emission reduction benefits. Using a panel of 127 U.S. manufacturing industries defined by 3-digit SIC classifications over the 1989–2004 period, we estimate impacts of industry-level participation in the 33/50 program, a VPR initiated by government regulators in 1991, on industry-level rates of environmental patenting. We find that higher rates of 33/50 program participation are associated with significant reductions in the number of successful environmental patent applications five to nine years after the program ended.     

Urban expansion and its contribution to the regional carbon emissions: Using the model based on the population density distribution

The method is used for calculating regional urban area dynamics and the resulting carbon emissions (from the land-conversion) for the period of 1980 till 2050 for the eight world regions. This approach is based on the fact that the spatial distribution of population density is close to the two-parametric Γ-distribution [Kendall, M.G., Stuart, A., 1958. The Advanced Theory of Statistics, vol. 1.2. Academic Press, New York; Vaughn, R., 1987. Urban Spatial Traffic Patterns, Pion, London]. The developed model provides us with the scenario of urbanisation, based on which the regional and world dynamics of carbon emissions and export from cities, and the annual total urban carbon balance are estimated. According to our estimations, world annual emissions of carbon as a result of urbanisation increase up to 1.25 GtC in 2005 and begin to decrease afterwards. If we compare the emission maximum with the annual emission caused by deforestation, 1.36 GtC per year, then we can say that the role of urbanised territories (UT) in the global carbon balance is of a comparable magnitude. Regarding the world annual export of carbon from UT, we observe its monotonous growth by three times, reaching 505 MtC. The latter, is comparable to the amount of carbon transported by rivers into the ocean (196–537 MtC). The current model shows that urbanisation is inhibited in the interval 2020–2030, and by 2050 the growth of urbanised areas would almost stop. Hence, the total balance, being almost constant until 2000, then starts to decrease at an almost constant rate. By the end of the XXI century, the total carbon balance will be equal to zero, with the exchange flows fully balanced, and may even be negative, with the system beginning to take up carbon from the atmosphere, i.e., becomes a “sink”. The regional dynamics is somewhat more complex, i.e., some regions, like China, Asia and Pacific are being active sources of Carbon through the studied period, while others are changing from source to sink or continue to be neutral in respect the GCC.     

Pollution Permits and Sustainable Growth in a Schumpeterian Model

In Chapter 4 of their book (“Endogenous Growth Theory,” MIT Press, Cambridge, MA (1998)), Aghion and Howitt introduce environmental pollution in an aggregate Schumpeterian model and characterize the optimal path. In this paper, we study the equilibria in a decentralized economy compatible with their model. First, we study the trade-off between environmental quality and growth and identify the channels of transmission of environmental policy into growth performance. Then, we compute the levels of the tools which are used to implement the optimum.     

The effect of low emission zones on air pollution and infant health

This paper investigates the effect of low emission zones on air quality and birth outcomes in Germany. The staggered introduction of the policy measure creates a credible natural experiment and a natural control group for births and air pollution measurements in cities that enact low emission zones. I show that the introduction of the most restrictive type of low emission zone decreases average levels of fine particulate matter by about 4 percent and by up to 8 percent at a city's highest-polluting monitor. Low emission zones also reduce the number of days per year on which legal pollution limits are exceeded by three. However, these reductions are too small to translate into substantial improvements in infant health. My results are not driven by changes in maternal or city specific characteristics, and are robust to variations in specification and to the choice of control group.     

Models of withdrawing renewable and non-renewable resources based on Odum's energy systems theory and Daly's quasi-sustainability principle

This paper presents a theoretical model of withdrawing resources based on Odum's energy systems diagrams. According to the theory of a general pulsing principle, withdrawing resources changes in time shifting from the initial phases of growth and maturity to the phases of descent and low energy restoration. A simulation was performed in order to hypothesize potential future trends of withdrawing renewable and non-renewable resources and to show some aspects of their sustainability–unsustainability, respectively. According to Odum's theory, after the rapid growth of the last century, our civilization is living in a climax transition phase and it is now approaching a descent phase. A “way down” will be necessary due to the exhaustion of non-renewable and to the limited use of renewable resources. An integrated “renew–non-renew” model was developed by Odum to show how a “business as usual” trend will bring us to a drastic transition to a world that uses scarce renewable resources. Nevertheless, a different choice is possible, based on Daly's concept of quasi-sustainability that can inspire a new model. The latter argued that the exploitation of a non-renewable resource must be paired with a compensating investment in a renewable substitute. Our model shows that we can use non-renewable resources better to considerably improve our capacity of capturing renewable resources in the future. We present this as a necessary condition to address a sustainable environmental policy.     

Air pollution and its control in China

The rapid growth of China’s economy has led to severe air pollution characterized by acid rain, severe pollution in cities, and regional air pollution. High concentrations are found for various pollutants such as sulfur dioxides (SO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), and fine particulates. Great efforts have thus been undertaken for the control of air pollution in the country. This paper discusses the development and application of appropriate technologies for reducing the major pollutants produced by coal and vehicles, and investigates air quality modeling as an important support for policy-making.     

Floater mortality within settlement areas can explain the Allee effect in breeding populations

The Allee effect (the positive relationship between population growth rate and population size) is a constraint of some animal populations at low numbers, which increases their likelihood of extinction because of a decrease in reproduction and/or survival. We were able to demonstrate that the Allee effect can be the result of a mortality increase affecting floaters (i.e. dispersing individuals able to enter as breeders in the reproductive population when a breeding territory or a potential mate – owner of a suitable breeding territory – becomes available). Previously, potential mechanisms underlying Allee effects were always related to the breeding portion of a population only. In contrast, our understanding of or solutions to population declines due to the Allee effects can reside elsewhere, away from breeding territories.     

Chemical defense and evolution in the Sacoglossa (Mollusca: Gastropoda: Opisthobranchia)

Summary. Recent advances in both the systematics and the natural products chemistry of the order Sacoglossa (=Ascoglossa) in the gastropod subclass Opisthobranchia suggest a revised and improved historical account of the evolution of the group. Although the algal genus Caulerpa makes a suitable model for the ancestral food of the order, other siphonaceous algae are consistent with both morphological and chemical data. At an early evolutionary stage terpenoids are sequestered from the food, and used defensively, often with modification. With an evolutionary switch to different kinds of algal food, there is often a shift to other, related defensive chemicals. A switch to new food source sometimes leads to the abandonment of chemical defense, but in other cases there is de-novo synthesis of defensive metabolites. The synthesis of polypropionates, which are used defensively, occurs in some other gastropods, but otherwise is known only in fungi. The systematic distribution of the defensive polypropionates suggests that their defensive use has evolved several times among gastropods. Failure to detect them may mean that synthetic capacity has evolved more than once, or it may mean that they exist at low levels, perhaps having a non-defensive function. Received 9 February 1998; accepted 20 March 1998.     

‘Effortless Perfection:’ Do Chinese cities manipulate air pollution data?

This paper uses unique data on daily air pollution concentrations over the period 2001–2010 to test for manipulation in self-reported data by Chinese cities. First, we employ a discontinuity test to detect evidence consistent with data manipulation. Then, we propose a panel matching approach to identify the conditions under which irregularities may occur. We find that about 50% of cities reported dubious PM₁₀ pollution levels that led to a discontinuity at the cut-off. Suspicious data reporting tends to occur on days when the anomaly is least detectable. Our findings indicate that the official daily air pollution data are not well behaved, which provides suggestive evidence of manipulation.     

Air pollution transport in the Balkan region and country-to-country pollution exchange between Romania, Bulgaria and Greece

US EPA Models-3 system is used for calculating the exchange of ozone pollution between three countries in southeast Europe. For the purpose, three domains with resolution 90, 30 and 10 km are chosen in such a way that the most inner domain with dimensions 90 × 147 points covers entirely Romania, Bulgaria and Greece.The ozone pollution levels are studied on the base of three indexes given in the EU Ozone Directive, mainly accumulated over threshold of 40 ppb for crops (AOT40C, period May–July), number of days with 8-h running average over 60 ppb (NOD60) and averaged daily maximum (ADM). These parameters are calculated for every scenario and the influence of each country emissions on the pollution of the region is estimated and commented.Oxidized and reduced sulphur and nitrogen loads over the territories of the three countries are also determined. The application of all scenarios gave the possibility to estimate the contribution of every country to the S and N pollution of the others and detailed blame matrixes to be build.Comparison of the ozone levels model estimates with data from the EMEP monitoring stations is made.     

Structural changes in lake functioning induced from nutrient loading and climate variability

Climate variability is increasingly recognized as an important regulatory factor, capable of influencing the structural properties of aquatic ecosystems. Lakes appear to be particularly sensitive to the ecological impacts of climate variability, and several long time series have shown a close coupling between climate, lake thermal properties and individual organism physiology, population abundance, community structure, and food web dynamics. Thus, understanding the complex interplay among meteorological forcing, hydrological variability, and ecosystem functioning is essential for improving the credibility of model-based water resources/fisheries management. Our objective herein is to examine the relative importance of the ecological mechanisms underlying plankton seasonal variability in Lake Washington, Washington State (USA), over a 35-year period (1964–1998). Our analysis is founded upon an intermediate complexity plankton model that is used to reproduce the limiting nutrient (phosphate)–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus (particulate phosphorus) dynamics in the lake. Model parameterization is based on a Bayesian calibration scheme that offers insights into the degree of information the data contain about model inputs and allows obtaining predictions along with uncertainty bounds for modeled output variables. The model accurately reproduces the key seasonal planktonic patterns in Lake Washington and provides realistic estimates of predictive uncertainty for water quality variables of environmental management interest. A principal component analysis of the annual estimates of the underlying ecological processes highlighted the significant role of the phosphorus recycling stemming from the zooplankton excretion on the planktonic food web variability. We also identified a moderately significant signature of the local climatic conditions (air temperature) on phytoplankton growth (r = 0.41), herbivorous grazing (r = 0.38), and detritus mineralization (r = 0.39). Our study seeks linkages with the conceptual food web model proposed by Hampton et al. [Hampton, S.E., Scheuerell, M.D., Schindler, D.E., 2006b. Coalescence in the Lake Washington story: interaction strengths in a planktonic food web. Limnol. Oceanogr. 51, 2042–2051.] to emphasize the “bottom-up” control of the Lake Washington plankton phenology. The posterior predictive distributions of the plankton model are also used to assess the exceedance frequency and confidence of compliance with total phosphorus (15 μg L⁻¹) and chlorophyll a (4 μg L⁻¹) threshold levels during the summer-stratified period in Lake Washington. Finally, we conclude by underscoring the importance of explicitly acknowledging the uncertainty in ecological forecasts to the management of freshwater ecosystems under a changing global environment.     

Impact of climate changes on pollution levels in Denmark

The impact of climate changes on the pollution levels in Denmark is the major topic of this paper. Variations of the Danish air pollution levels that are caused by climatic changes are studied together with variations caused by other factors (emissions, inter-annual variability of meteorological conditions, etc.). The Unified Danish Eulerian Model (UNI-DEM) was run on a fine, 10 km × 10 km, grid over a space domain covering all of Europe to minimize the influence of the boundary conditions on the Danish pollution levels. This study is based on four categories of scenarios: (i) traditional scenarios, (ii) climatic scenarios, (iii) scenarios with variations of the human-made (anthropogenic) emissions and (iv) scenarios in which the biogenic emissions were varied. The total number of applied scenarios was 14, and a time-period of 16 years was used. The results show clearly that although the concentrations of the major pollutants do not depend too much on the climatic changes, some quantities, in particular quantities related to high ozone levels, might be increased significantly as a result of the warming trends in the future climate. The reason for this phenomenon is explained.     

基于LMDI的中国二氧化硫排放区域变化的因素分解

运用LMDI方法将中国SO2排放变化分解为规模效应、区域经济结构效应、能源强度效应、能源结构效应、产污系数效应和污染治理效应六个因素,并进行了东、中、西和东北四个地区的差异分解分析。结果表明：规模效应是造成各地区SO2排放增加的最重要原因,不同地区不同时段SO2排放的减排因素不同。1999―2003年间,东部、中部地区能源结构和产污系数的减排效应显著,西部、东北地区能源强度和产污系数效应突出;2003―2006年间,东中西部污染治理和产污系数减排效应明显,东北地区能源效率减排贡献大;2006―2009年间,东部、中部的污染治理和能源效率减排贡献突出,西部的产污系数效应和污染治理作用显著,东北的产污系数和能源强度效应突出。建议按照不同地区结合实际情况实行灵活的减排政策。     

Source attribution for mercury deposition with an updated atmospheric mercury emission inventory in the Pearl River Delta Region,China

Estimated anthropogenic Hg emission was 11.9 tons in Pearl River Delta for 2014. Quantifying contributions of emission sources helps to provide control strategies. More attentions should be paid to Hg deposition around the large point sources. Power plant, industrial source and waste incinerator were priorities for control. A coordinated regional Hg emission control was important for controlling pollution. We used CMAQ-Hg to simulate mercury pollution and identify main sources in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) with updated local emission inventory and latest regional and global emissions. The total anthropogenic mercury emissions in the PRD for 2014 were 11,939.6 kg. Power plants and industrial boilers were dominant sectors, responsible for 29.4 and 22.7%. We first compared model predictions and observations and the results showed a good performance. Then five scenarios with power plants (PP), municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI), industrial point sources (IP), natural sources (NAT), and boundary conditions (BCs) zeroed out separately were simulated and compared with the base case. BCs was responsible for over 30% of annual average mercury concentration and total deposition while NAT contributed around 15%. Among the anthropogenic sources, IP (22.9%) was dominant with a contribution over 20.0% and PP (18.9%) and MSWI (11.2%) ranked second and third. Results also showed that power plants were the most important emission sources in the central PRD, where the ultra-low emission for thermal power units need to be strengthened. In the northern and western PRD, cement and metal productions were priorities for mercury control. The fast growth of municipal solid waste incineration were also a key factor in the core areas. In addition, a coordinated regional mercury emission control was important for effectively controlling pollution. In the future, mercury emissions will decrease as control measures are strengthened, more attention should be paid to mercury deposition around the large point sources as high levels of pollution are observed.     

The impacts of economic restructuring and technology upgrade on air quality and human health in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China

Impacts of industrial restructuring and upgrade on air quality & health are assessed. An integrated approach combining different models is used for the assessment. Industrial technology upgrading is more effective than economic restructuring. Ozone is much more difficult to mitigate than PM_2.5. In this study, we have analyzed possible policy options to improve the air quality in an industrialized region—Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei (BTH) in China. A comprehensive model framework integrating GAINS-China, GEOS-Chem, and IMED/HEL is established to investigate the impacts of various policies on air pollution and health effects. The model establishes a data interface between economic input/output data and the emission inventory of atmospheric pollutants in the BTH region. Based on in-depth analyses of pollutant emission standards, industrial structure, pollution-intensive industries, and emission intensities in BTH and Pearl River Delta, several scenarios are constructed to explore the effectiveness of policy pathways in improving air quality in the BTH region. These scenarios include two categories: the category of “Industrial Technology Upgrade Policy” scenarios that focuses on reducing the emission intensity of industries vs. that of “Industrial Structure Adjustment Policy” scenarios that focuses on adjusting the proportion of industrial value-added. Our results show that the policy path of industrial technology upgrading can be effective and feasible, while economic structure adjustment shows complex and mixed effectiveness. We also find that the proposed policies and measures will be efficient to reduce pollution of primary pollutants and fine particles, but may not effectively mitigate ambient ozone pollution. Ozone pollution is projected to become increasingly severe in BTH, placing a challenge to pollution mitigation strategies that requires further adjustments to address it.     

Do credit constraints favor dirty production? Theory and plant-level evidence

This paper explores the effect of credit constraints on production-generated pollution emissions. I develop a theoretical model wherein polluting firms borrow externally to finance investment in various assets, subject to a credit constraint. The main insight of the model is that credit constraints distort the composition of assets towards over-investment in tangible assets, which can be pledged as collateral, thereby increasing the intensity of emissions. The predictions of the model are tested using a unique dataset consisting of plant-level measures of pollution emissions and creditworthiness. The empirical results indicate that credit constraints significantly increase pollution emissions (even after accounting for the scale effect), and the results withstand multiple robustness checks. Moreover, the effect of credit constraints is particularly acute in industries with greater reliance on external credit. Finally, I demonstrate that firm-level credit constraints distort the composition of assets and that the composition of assets influences pollution emissions.     

Pollution perception: A challenge for intergenerational equity

In this article we extend the recent literature on overlapping generations and pollution by allowing generations to perceive the level of pollution differently than the actual level of pollution. We call this pollution perception. Pollution perception can visualize itself as either a concern for the flow of pollution only, or for the stock, or a combination of both. We derive this extension based on empirical evidence from recent advances in behavioural economics.Pollution perception has not only significant consequences for the steady state levels of pollution and capital, but we also find a qualitative change in the dynamics from similar models without pollution perception [A. John, R. Pecchenino, An overlapping generations model of growth and the environment, Econ. J. 104 (1994) 1393–1410]. Specifically, we derive optimal non-linear dynamics through complex eigenvalues and Hopf or Flip bifurcations for a large set of parameters. This leads to violations of two standard criteria of sustainability, suggesting that pollution perception can be another source of intergenerational inequity.     

Role of competition in phytoplankton population for the occurrence and control of plankton bloom in the presence of environmental fluctuations

Termination of harmful algal blooms (HABs) and coexistence of phytoplankton–zooplankton populations are of great importance to human health, ecosystem, environment, tourism and fisheries. In this paper, we propose a three component model consisting of non-toxic phytoplankton (NTP), toxin producing phytoplankton (TPP) and zooplankton (Z). The growth of zooplankton species is assume to reduce due to toxic chemicals released by TPP population. We have extended the model proposed by Chattopadhyay et al. [Chattopadhyay, J., Sarkar, R.R., Pal, S., 2004. Mathematical modelling of harmful algal blooms supported by experimental findings. Ecol. Comp. 1, 225–235] by including competition terms between TPP and NTP. We observe the effect of competition factors both in the presence and absence of the environmental fluctuation. From our field as well as model analysis we observe that competition helps in the coexistence of the species, but if the effect of competition is very high on the TPP population, it results in planktonic bloom. It is shown that the coexistence equilibrium loses its stability when the competition coefficient crosses a critical value and resulting Hopf-bifurcation around the positive equilibrium depicting oscillations phenomena of the populations.