Use of Predictive Weather Uncertainties in an Irrigation Scheduling Tool Part I: A Review of Metrics and Adjoint Methods

Irrigation management consists of many components. In this work we review and recommend rainfall forecast performance metrics and adjoint methodologies for the use of predictive weather data within the Colorado State University Water Irrigation Scheduler for Efficient Application (WISE). WISE estimates crop water uses to optimize irrigation scheduling. WISE and its components, input requirements, and related software design issues are discussed. The use of predictive weather allows WISE to consider economic opportunity‐costs of decisions to defer water application if rainfall is forecast. These capabilities require an assessment of the system uncertainties and use of weather prediction performance probabilities. Rainfall forecasts and verification performance metrics are reviewed. In addition, model data assimilation methods and adjoint sensitivity concepts are introduced. These assimilation methods make use of observational uncertainties and can link performance metrics to space and time considerations. We conclude with implementation guidance, summaries of available data sources, and recommend a novel adjoint method to address the complex physical linkages and model sensitivities between space and time within the irrigation scheduling physics as a function of soil depth. Such tool improvements can then be used to improve water management decision performance to better conserve and utilize limited water resources for productive use. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Use of Predictive Weather Uncertainties in an Irrigation Scheduling Tool Part II: An Application of Metrics and Adjoints

We apply predictive weather metrics and land model sensitivities to improve the Colorado State University Water Irrigation Scheduler for Efficient Application (WISE). WISE is an irrigation decision aid that integrates environmental and user information for optimizing water use. Rainfall forecasts and verification performance metrics are used to estimate predictive rainfall probabilities that are used as input data within the irrigation decision aid. These input data errors are also used within a land model sensitivity study to diagnose important prognostic water movement behaviors for irrigation tool development purposes simultaneously performing the analysis in space and time. Thus, important questions such as “how long can a crop water application be delayed while maintaining crop yield production?” are addressed by evaluating crop growth stage interactions as a function of soil depth (i.e., space), rainfall events (i.e., time), and their probabilistic uncertainties. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

The effects of large-scale afforestation and climate change on water allocation in the Macquarie River catchment,NSW, Australia

Widespread afforestation has been proposed as one means of addressing the increasing dryland and stream salinity problem in Australia. However, modelling results presented here suggest that large-scale tree planting will substantially reduce river flows and impose costs on downstream water users if planted in areas of high runoff yield. Streamflow reductions in the Macquarie River, NSW, Australia are estimated for a number of tree planting scenarios and global warming forecasts. The modelling framework includes the Sacramento rainfall-runoff model and IQQM, a streamflow routing tool, as well as various global climate model outputs from which daily rainfall and potential evaporation data files have been generated in OzClim, a climate scenario generator. For a 10% increase in tree cover in the headwaters of the Macquarie, we estimate a 17% reduction in inflows to Burrendong Dam. The drying trend for a mid-range scenario of regional rainfall and potential evaporation caused by a global warming of 0.5 degree C may cause an additional 5% reduction in 2030. These flow reductions will decrease the frequency of bird-breeding events in Macquarie Marshes (a RAMSAR protected wetland) and reduce the security of supply to irrigation areas downstream. Inter-decadal climate variability is predicted to have a very significant influence on catchment hydrologic behaviour. A further 20% reduction in flows from the long-term historical mean is possible, should we move into an extended period of below average rainfall years, such as occurred in eastern Australia between 1890 and 1948. Because current consumptive water use is largely adapted to the wetter conditions of post 1949, a return to prolonged dry periods would cause significant environmental stress given the agricultural and domestic water developments that have been instituted.     

Rainwater conservation and recycling by optimal size on-farm reservoir

Hydrologic and economic analysis of the on-farm reservoir (OFR) was carried out in rainfed rice–mustard cropping systems in Eastern India followed by 2 years of field experiments in 1999 and 2000. The average contribution (average of 2 years) of direct rainfall and surface runoff from the diked crop fields contributed, respectively, about 79.5 and 20.5% to the total OFR inflow. The average contribution of evaporation loss, seepage and percolation loss and supplemental irrigation from the OFR contributed, respectively, about 10.0, 31.2 and 58.8% to the total OFR outflow. There was an average increase of rice yield of 44.0% over the rainfed rice because of application of 8.4 cm supplemental irrigation from the OFR. Thus, with an application of 4.5 cm supplemental irrigation from the OFR, 15.40% increase of mustard yield was recorded in 1999. Economic analysis indicated average net profit of Rs. 700 (US$ 1 = Rupees (Rs.) 44.75 in Indian currency) from a farm area of 800 m². Average values of benefit–cost ratio, internal rate of return and pay back period of the OFR irrigation system were evaluated as 1.17, 14.8%, and 16 years, respectively. The study reveals that the OFR irrigation in small landholders is economically feasible system for rainwater harvesting and providing supplemental irrigation in rainfed farming system.     

RUNOFF IMPOUNDMENT FOR SUPPLEMENTAL IRRIGATION IN TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: The current increase in the demand for water by municipal, industrial, and other users is likely to result in approximately one-third less water being available for agricultural use in Texas by the year 2000. As water supplies diminish, the rainfall excess needs to be used more efficiently. Large amounts of runoff occur in the eastern part of Texas that could be collected in small impoundments and utilized for crop production. Farmers in water-surplus basins or subbasins can apply for a permit to divert surface water into small on-farm impoundments to be used for supplemental irrigation. The costs for runoff collection and two supplemental irrigations, which amount to a total of 4 in./yr., are estimated to be approximately $60/acre/year. Depending upon the crop produced, the estimated increase in gross income from supplemental irrigation ranges from about $80 to more than $100 per acre annually.     

MODELING WATER UTILIZATION IN LARGE-SCALE IRRIGATION SYSTEMS: A QUALITATiVE RESPONSE APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: Given limited available data and the present state of knowledge on the social aspects of irrigation, there is a need to develop new quantitative methods to measure water management performance in large-scale systems. A qualitative response framework is adapted to formulate a dynamic logit model of weekly field water adequacy and quantify indirectly farmer water utilization. Model parameters are estimated in a weighted least-squares regression using four seasons of data from a Philippine canal system. Estimated coefficients and independent model forecasts indicate greater effective use of rainfall than irrigation in sustaining high levels of water adequacy during the rainy season. Irrigation utilization is two times higher in the dry season, while system location has a much smaller but still significant impact. Utilization rates for both rain and irrigation showed considerable responsiveness to the prevailing scarcity of water. The qualitative response approach is well suited to the aggregated data available for large-scale systems, and allows advances in modeling dynamic water management behavior. Formal evaluation of the model will require further empirical applications.     

WATER BUDGET ANALYSIS FOR THE EVERGLADES AGRICULTURAL AREA DRAINAGE BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Water budget studies are essential for water resources and environmental management. In this study, a water budget analysis is presented for the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) in South Florida for the period from 1973 to 1991. The EAA is a highly productive irrigation/drainage basin that has a high water table and organic soils. Water quality problems are associated with the drainage discharge from the basin. During dry periods, supplemental water is used for irrigation and in rainy periods excess water with relatively higher phosphorus content is pumped out of the basin to Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades ecosystem. Elevated concentrations of phosphorus in the runoff/drainage that is discharged from the EAA basin have created water quality problems. The mean surface water inflow to the basin was 63,990 ha-m, and the outflow was 131,447 ha-m per year. On the average, supplemental surface water use was 47,411 ha-m, and runoff/drainage was 114,816 ha-m per year. The mean annual basin rainfall was 120.9 cm. A general trend in the decline of the wet season rainfall is observed.     

ACCOUNTING FOR DISCREPANCIES IN PAN EVAPORATION CALCULATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Four experiments were made to document and account for differences in evaporation data that were calculated using pans equipped with float-activated recorders and pans with hook gauge/rain gauge instrumentation. Paired in-pan comparisons indicated that evaporation differences were not due to the technique of measuring water level within the pan. Also, the recorder float-lag did not account for the differences. By sampling rainfall events, it was found that evaporation pans and standard (8 in. orifice) rain gauges record significantly different amounts of rain, which results in differences in calculated evaporation on rainy days. Monitoring networks with evaporation pans should have uniform instrumentation that accurately records rainfall into the pans for consistent results.     

MONITORING AND CONTROL OF CENTER PIVOT SYSTEMS WITH MICROCOMPUTERS1

A computerized water-energy-management system (WEMS) can be used by center pivot operators to reduce pumping fuel costs and monitoring expenses. Irrigation costs are lowered primarily because the system used climatic data and plant growth models to derive water schedules that considerably lowers the use of water compared with conventional irrigation practices. A capital budget analysis of a hypothetical, but representative farm growing corn, shows that cost savings are from three sources: 61 percent from pumping less water, 28 percent from labor savings, and 11 percent from savings on truck fuel, maintenance, and oiL The analysis illustrates that only a 4 percent water savings from irrigation scheduling over a 10-year period is required for the investment to be profitable for many central High Plains’ irrigators. The water savings required are relatively small compared with the potentials shown by irrigation scheduling research. WEMS is cost effective and can extend the life of the ground water source.     

Timing of phosphorus fertilizer application within an irrigation cycle for perennial pasture

Irrigated pastures are significant contributors of phosphorus (P) to inland watercourses, with much of the P coming from applied fertilizer. It was hypothesized that the timing of P fertilizer application relative to irrigation regulates P concentrations in runoff and infiltrating water. To test this hypothesis, a two-by-two factorial experiment was conducted on twelve 8- x 30-m border-irrigated bays growing perennial pasture. Phosphorus fertilizer in the form of single superphosphate (44 kg P ha(-1)) was surface-broadcast onto the bays when the nominal change in soil water deficit reached 0 or 50 mm (U.S. Class A pan evaporation minus rainfall). Following fertilizer application, the bays were again irrigated when the nominal soil water deficit between fertilizing and the subsequent irrigation reached either 0 or 50 mm. The volume of water applied, runoff volume, and changes in soil water content were recorded for the three irrigations following fertilizer application. Total phosphorus (TP) and filtrable reactive phosphorus (FRP, <0.45 microm) concentrations in runoff and at depths of 0.1, 0.3, and 0.6 m in the soil were also measured. Soil water content at fertilizer application had less effect on P concentrations in runoff and soil water than the additional time between fertilizing and irrigating. By allowing a deficit of 50 mm between fertilizer application and irrigation, the average concentration of P in runoff and moving below a soil depth of 0.1 m was approximately halved. To maximize fertilizer use efficiency and minimize environmental effects, a delay should occur between applying P fertilizer and irrigating perennial pasture.     

ENERGY AND WATER CONSERVATION STRATEGIES IN IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE1

ABSTRACT: Growers in California used several energy and water conservation strategies in response to the drought conditions of 1976 and 1977. The strategies included an increased use of ground water, in creased irrigation efficiencies, and shifts in cropping patterns. Drought-related losses to irrigated agriculture were minimized as a result of these modifications. Some future problems may have been created, however, by obtaining the needed water supplies for 1976–77. These problems include the effects of extensive water pumping on ground water reservoirs and ground subsidence. In addition, reduced water application by less frequent irrigation and changes in irrigation methods may affect the total salt balance for future years. Several conservation strategies that have some potential application in California were identified as: maintaining and augmenting surface water supply, increasing power use efficiencies, and improving irrigation efficiencies. Electricity savings associated with water conservation have been estimated as high as 25 percent. Specific near term actions suggested for facilitating conservation included: an expanded irrigation management system, efficient water deliveries, and a continued effort on the part of the individual growers to use resources during periods of normal rainfall as they were used under drought conditions.     

MANAGING ROTATIONAL CANAL WATER SUPPLIES ON THE FARM1

ABSTRACT: A procedure to determine optimal irrigation scheduling strategies under rotational water delivery systems is presented. The methodology involves integration of water delivery amount and frequency, irrigation management strategies, evapotranspiration sequences and crop-evapotranspiration-production functions to arrive at an optimal irrigation strategy. Application of the methodology to a farm in the service area of Western Yamuna Canal (India) where a two-stage system of rotation, one among the irrigation channels and the other among the farmers, is in vogue, reveals that maximum production is obtained with water application in a rotational manner (RI) rather than with irrigation in every or alternate supply periods. Increase in mean water supply which can be effected through improvement in on-farm conveyance and application systems, has a greater effect on yield than decrease in variance of the supply. Benefit cost analyses indicates that precision land leveling is more cost effective in increasing water supply as compared to water-course lining.     

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF IRRIGATION ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE LITTLE WABASH BASIN OF ILLINOIS1

The level of water demand for supplemental irrigation and the impact of such demand on water supplies were estimated, as a function of the price of corn (Zea Mays L.). The method of estimation was based on an economic analysis of irrigation practice which assumed constant irrigation costs, profit maximizing behavior on the part of irrigators, and which was deliberately structured to underestimate the level of irrigation water use. The analysis was applied to and used data from the Little Wabash basin in Illinois. No irrigation was predicted at a corn price below $3.50 per bushel. Between $3.50 and about $6.50 per bushel, irrigation was estimated to be profitable for a small region of the basin where acceptable groundwater was available. Above about $6.50 to $7.50, irrigation was found to be profitable in the remainder of the basin, where impoundment storage was required. The potential impact on the water resources of the basin is significant. For a corn price between $3.50 and about $6.50, the probability of a shortfall, defined as the event where the potential demand exceeds the supply, was estimated to be between 2 percent and 20 percent during the growing season. Above about $7.50, this probability was found to be about one-third. The development of policies to control withdrawals for irrigation and other uses is endorsed.     

REUSE OF POWER PLANT COOLING WATER FOR IRRIGATION1

ABSTRACT: Current water quality policies in California require disposal of saline blowdown waters from power plants in sealed evaporation ponds to avoid degradation of ground waters. This policy highlights the conflict between increased energy demands, increasing scarcity of water, and environmental priorities. Saline blowdown waters can be used for the irrigation of salt tolerant crops, albeit with some reduction in yields. The results of experiments intended to specify these yield reductions are reported. If such irrigation is carefully managed, the soil profile can be used to store residual salts and ground water degradation will be avoided, provided that irrigation ceases before the salts are leached to the ground water. An analysis of discharge below a carefully managed irrigation project shows that the downward movement of salts below the root zone is no worse than with conventional methods of disposal. Thus, irrigation reuse with blowdown water is shown to be a viable means of saline water disposal while maintaining existing standards of ground water quality protection. Further analysis demonstrates the economic feasibility of such irrigation reuse by showing that it is significantly less costly than the evaporation pond alternative.     

ROLE OF IRRIGATION WATER IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION: SOME RESOURCE USE ISSUES1

ABSTRACT: A partial production function for corn that considers the time and amount of water applications is determined. Examples are worked out by using data on site specific parameters for nine soil sites in the Great Plains Region repesenting various combinations of water holding capacity, pan evaporation, and average rainfall. It is found that soils with a low water holding capacity are more water and energy intensive in crop production and thus more vulnerable to fluctuations in net returns due to declining water tables or energy shortages. Despite this, farmers of low water holding capacity soils are likely to opt for irrigation. This points to the existence of a necessary, but sufficient, condition for socially inefficient use of ground water resources. This calls to question the property right concept in water created through the appropriation doctrine and the “law of capture.” This paper indicates the type of analysis that must be undertaken in order to make appropriate changes in laws governing water use.     

Performance analysis of on-farm irrigation tanks on agricultural drainage water reuse and treatment

Water reuse and pollutant removal efficiency analysis of the on-farm irrigation tanks (OFTs) was carried out in rice paddy field region of Zhanghe Irrigation District, Southern China through field experiments during the rice growing season of 2009–2011. Water flow measurements indicate that 20.6–68.9% of drainage water captured by OFTs was reused for supplemental irrigation. Rainfall was the most important factor that determines the water reuse efficiency (WRR) of OFTs, since higher rainfall resulted in higher surplus irrigation water draining out of OFTs without reuse, and thus decreased WRR. Fully using the storage capacity for storing return flow, and releasing totally for supplemental irrigation also enhanced WRR of OFTs. Water quality analysis shows that OFTs removed 47.2% of total phosphorous (TP) and 60.8% of total nitrogen (TN) of inflow and have a great effect on increasing sedimentation for return flow as the mean of removal efficiency of pollutant load (REL) for suspended solids (SS) amounted to 68.4%. For water treatment effectiveness of OFTs, high hydraulic retention time (HRT) is most beneficial to increase REL of TN whereas REL of TP is not sensitive to HRT. These results confirm that OFTs can effectively increase agricultural return flow reuse and remove pollutants. As the cascade OFTs irrigation system recycle return flow for several times, the irrigation water demand from outside of region was reduced significantly for rice production. Coupling with the effect of cyclic irrigation on the nutrients recycling by paddy fields, OFTs irrigation system also considerably mitigate the N and P off-site emission. Therefore, it is advisable to integrate the role of OFTs on water reuse and treatment for water saving irrigation and ecological management of paddy fields landscape.     

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION MEASUREMENT AND ESTIMATION OF THREE WETLAND ENVIRONMENTS IN THE UPPER ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN,FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Accurate estimates of evapotranspiration from areas dominated by wetland vegetation are needed in the water budget of the Upper St. Johns River Basin. However, local data on evapotranspiration rates, especially in wetland environments, were lacking in the project area. In response to this need, the St. Johns River Water Management District collected evapotranspiration field data in Fort Drum Marsh Conservation Area over the period 1996 through 1999. Three large lysimeters were installed to measure the evapotranspiration from different wetland environments: sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense), cattail (Typha domingensis), and open water. In addition, pan evaporation was measured with a standard class “A” pan. Concurrently, meteorological data including rainfall, solar radiation, wind speed, relative humidity, air temperature, and atmospheric pressure were collected. By comparing computed evapotranspiration rates with those measured in the lysimeters, parameters in the Penman‐Monteith, the Priestley‐Taylor, and Reference‐ET methods, and evaporation pan coefficients were estimated for monthly and seasonal cycles. The results from the data collected in this study show that mean monthly evapotranspiration rates, computed by the different methods, are relatively close. From a practical point of view, results indicate that the evaporation pan can be used equally well as the more complex and data‐intensive methods. This paper presents the measured evapotranspiration rates, evaporation pan coefficients, and the estimated parameter values for three different methods to compute evapotranspiration in the project area. Since local data on evaporation are often scarce or lacking, this information may be useful to watershed hydrologists for practical application in other project regions.     

An integrated assessment of long-term changes in the hydrology of three lowland rivers in eastern England

The flow records of the Rivers Bure, Nar and Wensum in eastern England have been examined with the aim of identifying long-term changes in flow behaviour relating to variations in rainfall amount, land use, land drainage intensity and water resources use. In the study area, and since 1931, there is no evidence of long-term change in rainfall amount or distribution, on either an annual or seasonal basis. Despite changes in water resources use and catchment characteristics since the beginning of the century, such as the ending of water milling and increased land drainage and arable farming, rainfall-runoff modelling over the period 1964-1992 showed that the relationship between rainfall and runoff has remained essentially unchanged in the three study rivers. A catchment resource model used to 'naturalise' the historic flow records for the period 1971-1992 to account for the net effect of water supply abstractions and discharges revealed that mean river flows have been altered by surface water and groundwater abstractions, although the average losses to mean weekly flows due to net abstractions for all water uses was no greater than 3%. Greater losses occurred during drought periods as a result of increased consumptive use of water for spray irrigation and amounted to a maximum loss of 24% in the Nar catchment. In lowland areas such as eastern England that are prone to summer dry weather and periodic drought conditions, an integrated approach to river basin management, as advocated by the EU Framework Directive, is recommended for future management of surface and groundwater resources for public water supplies, river regulation purposes and industrial and agricultural demands.     

MONTHLY RUNOFF PREDICTIONS BASED ON RAINFALL FORECASTS IN A SMALL OKLAHOMA WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Conditions under which monthly rainfall forecasts translate into monthly runoff predictions that could support water resources planning and management activities were investigated on a small watershed in central Oklahoma. Runoff response to rainfall forecasts was simulated using the hydrologic model SWAT. Eighteen scenarios were examined that represented combinations of wet, average, and dry antecedent rainfall conditions, with wet, normal, and dry forecasted rainfall. Results suggest that for the climatic and physiographic conditions under consideration, rainfall forecasts could offer potential application opportunities in surface water resources but only under certain conditions. Pronounced wet and dry antecedent rainfall conditions were shown to have greater impact on runoff than forecasts, particularly in the first month of a forecast period. Large forecast impacts on runoff occurred under wet antecedent conditions, when the fraction of forecasted rainfall contributing to runoff was greatest. Under dry antecedent conditions, most of the forecasted rainfall was absorbed in the soil profile, with little immediate runoff response. Persistent three‐month forecasts produced stronger impacts on runoff than one‐month forecasts due to cumulative effects in the hydrologic system. Runoff response to antecedent conditions and forecasts suggest a highly asymmetric utility function for rainfall forecasts, with greatest decision‐support potential for persistent wet forecasts under wet antecedent conditions when the forecast signal is least dampened by soil‐storage effects. Under average and dry antecedent conditions, rainfall forecasts showed little potential value for practical applications in surface water resources assessments.     

WATER REUSE FROM SEWAGE EFFLUENT BY IRRIGATION: A PERSPECTIVE FOR HAWAII1

ABSTRACT: Surrounded by an ocean, the Hawaiian Islands are limited in their natural fresh water resources. The major readily developable potable sources are the high quality ground water sources which serve both domestic uses and sugarcane irrigation although irrigation water does not require as high a quality as drinking water. The increasing overall fresh water requirements for the island of Oahu will outstrip the potential yield of fresh ground water sources, as developed by present technology, by the year 2000 according to Honolulu Board of Water Supply projections. There are water shortage regions on other islands. Water reuse from sewage effluent for irrigation will augment natural water resources, furnish supplemental or alternative fertilizer, and reduce ocean water pollution and the costs of engineering systems. In cooperative field testing from 1971 to 1975, it was demonstrated that effluent can be applied as supplemental water for furrow irrigation of sugarcane without detriment to ground water quality and sugar yield. Studies are in progress to test different dilutions of effluent and its use with chemical ripeners to improve crop yield. Sugarcane plantations on Oahu, Maui, and Kauai are in various stages of water reuse by effluent irrigation. Reuse is presently practiced for irrigation of golf courses and is being planned for forage crops in Hawaii.