对一起矿井动力现象事故的分析探讨

本文对一起“矿井动力现象”事故，从发生这起事故的条件和可能性及其事故后的特征等多方面进行了分析论证，认为该次事故不是一起“矿井动力现象”－煤与瓦斯突出，而是一次因放炮引起的瓦斯爆炸事故，指出了发生这次事故的原因，总结了该次事故的经验及教训，同时也提出了防止这类事故的预防措施。     

大孔径救援钻孔技术应用

正本文通过国际上3次重大矿山灾害的救援案例分析介绍了我国在矿山事故救援中钻孔救援技术的研究和应用在发生顶板坍塌、矿井透水、煤与瓦斯突出、冲击地压等重大矿山灾害事故时,由于坍塌冒落、巷道积水及动力现象等因素,造成矿井巷道堵塞,大量井下作业人员被困灾区无法逃生,     

双风机双电源自动切换电源在济三煤矿的实践应用

1．引言 椐统计,我国1983年-1989年发生的96次瓦斯爆炸事故中,采掘工作面就发生了84次,占瓦斯爆炸总起数的87．5％,其中掘进工作面最多。如某特大型煤矿企业统计37年发生的24起瓦斯事故中除有1起瓦斯窒息事故发生在高瓦斯矿井外,其他16起瓦斯窒息、4起瓦斯燃烧和3起瓦斯爆炸事故均发生在低瓦斯矿井,而3起瓦斯爆...     

在选择与被选择之间——记大黄山煤矿矿长顾正清

和美国70%的露天煤矿完全不同,有人说,中国煤矿的地质构造是全世界最复杂的。而兵团农六师大黄山煤矿,或许正是一个这样的典型。在离开城镇越来越远的地方,道路变得越来越颠簸,路边的景象变得越来越荒凉。终于,记者被告知,大黄山煤矿到了。大黄山煤矿位于新疆阜康境内,始建于1958年,有职工1000多人,其中两个主要生产矿井,均为水、火、瓦斯、煤尘、顶板等“五害”俱全的矿井。去年5月,这里发生了一起强透水事故,所幸抢救及时,未造成人员伤亡。去年12月,一个矿井又发生险情,一次重大瓦斯爆炸事故被     

博金公司瓦斯涌出及分布规律

通过分析瓦斯涌出现象及分布规律 ,掌握瓦斯与地质相关因素 ,提供了矿井瓦斯预测的依据 ,防止了瓦斯积聚及事故 ,保证了矿井安全生产。     

“三软”突出煤层瓦斯治理技术与应用

郑煤集团公司位于河南豫西产煤区,地质条件特殊,属于“三软”煤层（顶板软、底板软、煤层软）且煤层瓦斯含量高。近年来,随着开采深度的增加,多数主力矿井由低瓦斯升级为高突瓦斯矿井,郑煤集团饱受矿井瓦斯灾害威胁,1996年以来共发生大小瓦斯突出达64次。2004年10月20日,在21岩石下山掘进工作面发生特大瓦斯爆炸事故,造成148人死亡。     

博金公司瓦斯涌出及分布规律

通过分析瓦斯涌出现象及分布规律,掌握瓦斯与地质相关因素,提供了矿井瓦斯预测的依据,防止了瓦斯积极及事故,保证了矿井安全生产。     

企业安全生产面临转制危机--国有转民营企业高丰矿业有限公司203矿井"4·14"重大瓦斯事故透视

2003年4月14日下午7时30分左右,湖北高丰矿业有限公司203矿井井下发生一起重大瓦斯中毒窒息事故,死亡3人,伤2人。笔者与省检察院的同志以渎职案对国有转民营203矿井“4·14”事故进行近一个月全面深入地调查和研究后认为,“4·14”事故虽非特大事故,但透视出国有转民营企业存在     

福建低瓦斯矿井通风管理的误区与对策

煤矿五大自然灾害中,瓦斯事故在全国来说发生频率高、伤亡人数多而排在第一位,统计显示,2001年至2005年2月底,全国一次死亡30人以上的特别重大煤矿事故中,瓦斯事故占事故起数和死亡人数的86%和92%.尤其是百人以上的特大死亡事故基本上都是瓦斯事故.福建是缺煤省份,产量低、井型小,而且都是低瓦斯矿井.《煤矿安全规程》第133条规定:矿井相对瓦斯涌出量小于或等于10 m3/t且矿井绝对瓦斯涌出量小于或等于40 m3/min,该矿井确定为低瓦斯矿井.     

违章放糊炮导致低瓦斯的潘西矿瓦斯爆炸

本刊讯　7月13日23时55分,低瓦斯矿井──新汶矿务局潘西煤矿发生一起全国统配煤矿系统今年以来最大的瓦斯爆炸事故,造成45人死亡、5人重伤、6人轻伤。 据有关部门初步分析,这起事故的直接原因为:7月12日,井下四岔口顶板冒落,将通过该处直达附近两个上山迎头的两条局部通风风筒压坏,停风长达40小时,致使两条上山内的瓦斯大量积聚。在此情况下,担负四岔口顶板维修的工人违章放糊炮处理垮落矸石,导致瓦斯爆炸。 据了解,近几年来,低瓦斯矿井发生瓦斯爆炸的现象已屡见不鲜,如霍县圣佛矿、乌达五虎山矿、七台河桃山矿等低瓦斯矿井,都先后发生过瓦…     

基于动态风险平衡的海洋平台事故连锁风险研究

针对海洋平台事故风险特点,提出动态风险平衡概念,以此建立事故动力模型,并将该模型运用到墨西哥湾"深水地平线"井喷事故。动态风险平衡表征事故动力与事故阻力之间的动态平衡状态,具有动态性和暂时稳定性。事故动力模型以海洋平台可能发生的重大事故为研究对象,从工艺、技术和管理等角度分析事故可能致因和事故发展可能影响因素。该模型首先分析对象的初始事故动力,建立事故连锁风险图,然后计算初始动力发生情况下,传递动力和传递阻力的概率分布,最后提出相应风险控制措施。实例分析表明,基于动态风险平衡建立的事故动力模型能有效分析海洋平台事故连锁风险。     

山区二级公路运营期常态交通风险评价

为客观准确地评价山区二级公路常态交通风险,将风险源分为动态风险源和静态风险源.首先,基于白化权函数的综合评价法建立事故后果模型,基于历史事故数据建立事故概率模型,以评价静态风险;其次,结合白化权函数和层次分析法(AHP)建立事故后果模型,采用有序Logit模型建立事故概率模型,以评价动态风险;最后综合动静态风险结果评价...     

Theoretic model for the computer analysis of vehicle collisions

The complexity of the study and reconstruction of traffic accidents justifies the creation of tools which make easier the research in this area. That is the reason why the GIVET has developed a program called SINRAT III that lets, by means of dynamic simulation, reproduce the evolution of two vehicles in an accident in which a collision takes place, letting analyze the precollision and postcollision movements, as well as studying what happens during the contact and deformation of the vehicles in the collision stage. The simulation model is integrated by bodies developed using the bond-graph technique, that allows the simulation of the dynamic behaviour of the vehicles in any circumstance. At the end of this paper, an application example is presented, corresponding to an accident with collision between car and coach.     

基于Hankel-DMD的城市交通事故风险时空预测*

为解决城市交通事故风险时空分布预测任务中时空关联性捕捉困难的问题,提出基于动态模态分解（DMD）的城市交通事故分析时空预测模型,模型利用总最小二乘法去除交通事故数据中的噪声,应用结合Hankel矩阵的动态模态分解模型（Hankel-DMD）捕捉交通事故风险的时空关联性,对交通事故风险的时空分布进行预测。研究结果表明:DMD框架能够为高维预测任务提供低秩解决方案,从高维数据中捕捉时空关联性;Hankel-DMD模型在预测评价指标平均绝对误差和均方根误差方面的表现明显优于统计学及机器学习等方法;Hankel-DMD模型产生的动态模态和特征值,对事故风险系统的时空动态特征具有一定的可解释性,同时验证Hankel-DMD模型的适用性。     

Reducing unknown risk: The safety engineers’ new horizon

A significant gap exists between accident scenarios as foreseen by company safety management systems and actual scenarios observed in major accidents.The mere fact that this gap exists is pointing at flawed risk assessments, is leaving hazards unmitigated, threatening worker safety, putting the environment at risk and endangering company continuity. This scoping review gathers perspectives reported in scientific literature about how to address these problems.Safety managers and regulators, attempting to reduce and eventually close this gap, not only encounter the pitfalls of poor safety studies, but also the acceptance of ‘unknown risk’ as a phenomenon, companies being numbed by inadequate process safety indicators, unsettled debates between paradigms on improving process safety, and inflexible recording systems in a dynamic industrial environment.The immediacy of the stagnating long term downward major accident rate trend in the Netherlands underlines the need to address these pitfalls. A method to identify and systematically reduce unknown risks is proposed. The main conclusion is that safety management can never be ready with hazard identification and risk assessment.     

Systemic accident risk assessment in air traffic by Monte Carlo simulation

A systemic accident model considers accidents as emergent phenomena from variability and interactions in a complex system. Air traffic risk assessments have predominantly been done by sequential and epidemiological accident models. In this paper we demonstrate that Monte Carlo simulation of safety relevant air traffic scenarios is a viable approach for systemic accident assessment. The Monte Carlo simulations are based on dynamic multi-agent models, which represent the distributed and dynamic interactions of various human operators and technical systems in a safety relevant scenario. The approach is illustrated for a particular runway incursion scenario, which addresses an aircraft taxiing towards the crossing of an active runway while its crew has inappropriate situation awareness. An assessment of the risk of a collision between the aircraft taxiing with an aircraft taking-off is presented, which is based on dedicated Monte Carlo simulations in combination with a validation approach of the simulation results. The assessment particularly focuses on the effectiveness of a runway incursion alert system that warns an air traffic controller, in reducing the safety risk for good and reduced visibility conditions.     

事故与灾害预兆现象和理论研究

事故与灾害预兆现象普遍存在于人类活动领域和自然界中,由于人们忽视其作用,导致很多可以避免的事故或灾害的发生。研究指出:事故与灾害预兆是一种平衡力受到了破坏,在其平衡系统或整体物体中受到破坏或失衡,其能量向外释放或力失衡时所展现出的一种不正常的现象;通过仪器、经验和观察就能及时捕捉种种异常或不正常现象,采取应对措施进行预防,就能将事故或灾害消除在未发生前或将损失降减到最低限度;同时总结提出煤矿一般透水事故的预兆理论和预兆现象。笔者认为,研究事故与灾害预兆的现象和应用,是防止和减少事故或灾害发生的最有效途径,应该引起普遍重视。     

基于动态贝叶斯网络的石化装置火灾事故动态风险分析

为揭示石油炼化装置事故风险动态特性和事故情景演变路径,在对石化装置进行风险因素分析的基础上构建石化装置火灾事故故障树,基于贝叶斯网络非常规突发事故的演变过程,构建情景演变下的动态贝叶斯网络模型,在综合考虑应急措施的基础上,利用MATLAB软件和联合概率公式计算出各种事故场景的状态概率.以丙烯精馏装置火灾事故为例,结果表...     

Evaluation on consequences prediction of fire accident in emergency processes for oil-gas storage and transportation by scenario deduction

This paper takes the safety in emergency processes as the starting point, from the perspective of scenario deduction, to study the consequences of fire accidents for oil-gas storage and transportation. Through the statistical analysis of actual accident cases, 19 frequently occurring basic scenarios in emergency processes are summarized. The scenario evolution paths of fire accidents for oil-gas storage and transportation are given by analyzing the evolution law of the accident development. Fuzzy numbers are introduced to express experts' qualitative judgment on accident scenarios. The empirical probabilities of scenario nodes are obtained by defuzzification calculation, and the state probability of each scenario node is calculated by using the dynamic Bayesian network joint probability formula. Under the comprehensive consideration about the probability statistics of actual accident cases, the critical scenario nodes on the evolution path and their final scenario probabilities are jointly determined to realize the optimization of the scenario evolution path. By constructing the correlation between the optimized scenario evolution path and the accident consequences, an accident consequence prediction model is established. The occurrence probability of accident consequences is calculated by the defuzzification method and dynamic Bayesian network. The accuracy of the consequence prediction model is verified by the July 16 Dalian's Xingang Harbor oil pipeline explosion accident. The research results provide scientific basis for helping decision makers to make the effective emergency measures that are most conducive to the rapid elimination of accidents and reducing the severity of accident consequences.     

Applicability of accident analysis methods to Chinese construction accidents

IntroductionIt is necessary to clearly understand construction accidents for preventing a rise in Chinese construction accidents and deaths. Better analysis methods are required for Chinese construction sector accidents.MethodsChoosing and analyzing a typical construction accident based on four popular contemporary accident causation models: STAMP, AcciMap, HFACS, and the 2-4 Model. Then we evaluated the models' applicability to construction accidents, including their usability, reliability, and validity.ResultsSTAMP addressed how complexity within the accident system influenced the accident development, and its output makes the responsibilities clearer for the accident. AcciMap described the entire system's failure, the entire accident's trajectory, and the relationship between them. AcciMap showed that the accident was a dynamic developing process, and this method has a high usability. The taxonomic nature of HFACS is an important feature that provides it with a high reliability. In the accident reviewed here, we found that poor management was a critical factor rather than the individual factor in the accident. The 2-4 Model provided detailed causes of the accident and established the relationship among the accident causes, the safety management system, and the safety culture. It also avoided capturing all of the complexity in the large sociotechnical system and revealed a dynamic analysis and developing process. We confirmed that it has a high usability and validity. Therefore, the 2-4Model is recommended for future Chinese construction accident analysis efforts.Practical ApplicationsThe study provides a useful, reliable, and effective analysis method for Chinese construction accidents.