Application and Evaluation of Two Air Quality Models for Particulate Matter for a Southeastern U.S. Episode

Abstract

The Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System and the Particulate Matter Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (PMCAMx) were applied to simulate the period June 29–July 10, 1999, of the Southern Oxidants Study episode with two nested horizontal grid sizes: a coarse resolution of 32 km and a fine resolution of 8 km. The predicted spatial variations of ozone (O₃), particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm (PM_2.5), and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 10 μm (PM₁₀) by both models are similar in rural areas but differ from one another significantly over some urban/suburban areas in the eastern and southern United States, where PMCAMx tends to predict higher values of O₃ and PM than CMAQ. Both models tend to predict O₃ values that are higher than those observed. For observed O₃ values above 60 ppb, O₃ performance meets the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's criteria for CMAQ with both grids and for PMCAMx with the fine grid only. It becomes unsatisfactory for PMCAMx and marginally satisfactory for CMAQ for observed O₃ values above 40 ppb.

Both models predict similar amounts of sulfate (SO₄ ^2?) and organic matter, and both predict SO₄ ^2? to be the largest contributor to PM_2.5. PMCAMx generally predicts higher amounts of ammonium (NH₄ ⁺), nitrate (NO₃ ^?), and black carbon (BC) than does CMAQ. PM performance for CMAQ is generally consistent with that of other PM models, whereas PMCAMx predicts higher concentrations of NO₃ ^?,NH₄ ⁺, and BC than observed, which degrades its performance. For PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 predictions over the southeastern U.S. domain, the ranges of mean normalized gross errors (MNGEs) and mean normalized bias are 37–43% and –33–4% for CMAQ and 50–59% and 7–30% for PMCAMx. Both models predict the largest MNGEs for NO₃ ^? (98–104% for CMAQ, 138–338% for PMCAMx). The inaccurate NO₃ ^? predictions by both models may be caused by the inaccuracies in the ammonia emission inventory and the uncertainties in the gas/particle partitioning under some conditions. In addition to these uncertainties, the significant PM overpredictions by PMCAMx may be attributed to the lack of wet removal for PM and a likely underprediction in the vertical mixing during the daytime.     

Development and application of a three-dimensional aerosol chemical transport model,PMCAMx

A three-dimensional chemical transport model (PMCAMx) is used to simulate PM mass and composition in the eastern United States for a July 2001 pollution episode. The performance of the model in this region is evaluated, taking advantage of the highly time and size-resolved PM and gas-phase data collected during the Pittsburgh Air Quality Study (PAQS). PMCAMx uses the framework of CAMx and detailed aerosol modules to simulate inorganic aerosol growth, aqueous-phase chemistry, secondary organic aerosol formation, nucleation, and coagulation. The model predictions are compared to hourly measurements of PM_2.5 mass and composition at Pittsburgh, as well as to measurements from the AIRS and IMPROVE networks. The performance of the model for the major PM_2.5 components (sulfate, ammonium, and organic carbon) is encouraging (fractional errors are in general smaller than 50%). Additional improvements are possible if the rainfall measurements are used instead of the meteorological model predictions. The modest errors in ammonium predictions and the lack of bias for the total (gas and particulate) ammonium suggest that the improved ammonia inventory used is reasonable. The significant errors in aerosol nitrate predictions are mainly due to difficulties in simulating the nighttime formation of nitric acid. The concentrations of elemental carbon (EC) in the urban areas are significantly overpredicted. This is a problem related to both the emission inventory but also the different EC measurement methods that have been used in the two measurement networks (AIRS and IMPROVE) and the actual development of the inventory. While the ability of the model to reproduce OC levels is encouraging, additional work is necessary to confirm that that this is due to the right reasons and not offsetting errors in the primary emissions and the secondary formation. The model performance against the semi-continuous measurements in Pittsburgh appears to be quite similar to its performance against daily average measurements in a wide range of stations across the Eastern US. This suggests that the skill of the model to reproduce the diurnal variability of PM_2.5 and its major components is as good as its ability to reproduce the daily average values and also the significant value of high temporal resolution measurements for model evaluation.     

The Aerosol Research and Inhalation Epidemiology Study (ARIES): PM25 Mass and Aerosol Component Concentrations and Sampler Intercomparisons

ABSTRACT

The Aerosol Research and Inhalation Epidemiology Study (ARIES) was designed to provide high-quality measurements of PM₂₅, its components, and co-varying pollutants for an air pollution epidemiology study in Atlanta, GA.

Air pollution epidemiology studies have typically relied on available data on particle mass often collected using filter-based methods. Filter-based PM_2.5 sampling is susceptible to both positive and negative errors in the measurement of aerosol mass and particle-phase component concentrations in the undisturbed atmosphere. These biases are introduced by collection of gas-phase aerosol components on the filter media or by volatilization of particle phase components from collected particles. As part of the ARIES, we collected daily 24-hr PM_2.5 mass and speciation samples and continuous PM_2.5 data at a mixed residential-light industrial site in Atlanta. These data facilitate analysis of the effects of a wide variety of factors on sampler performance. We assess the relative importance of PM_2.5 components and consider associations and potential mechanistic linkages of PM_2.5 mass concentrations with several PM_2.5 components.

For the 12 months of validated data collected to date (August 1, 1998-July 31, 1999), the monthly average Federal Reference Method (FRM) PM_{2 5} mass always exceeded the proposed annual average standard (12-month average = 20.3 ± 9.5 ug/m³). The particulate SO₄ ^2- fraction (as (NH₄)₂SO₄) was largest in the summer and exceeded 50% of the FRM mass. The contribution of (NH₄)₂SO₄ to FRM PM_2.5 mass dropped to less than 30% in winter. Particu-late NO₃ ^- collected on a denuded nylon filter averaged 1.1 ± 0.9 ug/m³. Particle-phase organic compounds (as organic carbon × 1.4) measured on a denuded quartz filter sampler averaged 6.4 ± 3.1 ug/m³ (32% of FRM PM_{2 5} mass) with less seasonal variability than SO₄ ^2-.     

A combined model–observation approach to estimate historic gridded fields of PM2.5 mass and species concentrations

This paper introduces a methodology for estimating gridded fields of total and speciated fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations for time periods and regions not covered by observational data. The methodology is based on performing long-term regional scale meteorological and air quality simulations and then integrating these simulations with available observational data. To illustrate this methodology, we present an application in which year-round simulations with a meteorological model (the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Penn State Mesoscale Model, hereafter referred to as MM5) and a photochemical air quality model (the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model, hereafter referred to as CMAQ) have been performed over the northeastern United States for 1988–2005. Model evaluation results for total PM_2.5 mass and individual species for the time period from 2000 to 2005 show that model performance varies by species, season, and location. Therefore, an approach is developed to adjust CMAQ output with factors based on these three variables. The adjusted model values for total PM_2.5 mass for 2000–2005 are compared against independent measurements not utilized for the adjustment approach. This comparison reveals that the adjusted model values have a lower root mean square error (RMSE) and higher correlation coefficients than the original model values. Furthermore, the PM_2.5 estimates from these adjusted model values are compared against an alternate method for estimating historic PM_2.5 values that is based on PM_2.5/PM₁₀ ratios calculated at co-located monitors. Results reveal that both methods yield estimates of historic PM_2.5 mass that are broadly consistent; however, the adjusted CMAQ values provide greater spatial coverage and information for PM_2.5 species in addition to total PM_2.5 mass. Finally, strengths and limitations of the proposed approach are discussed in the context of potential uses of this method.     

A comparative performance evaluation of the AURAMS and CMAQ air-quality modelling systems

A harmonized comparative performance evaluation of A Unified Regional Air-quality Modelling System (AURAMS) v1.3.1b and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) v4.6 air-quality modelling systems was conducted on the same North American grid for July 2002 using the same emission inventories, emissions processor, and input meteorology.Comparison of AURAMS- and CMAQ-predicted O₃ concentrations against hourly surface measurement data showed a lower normalized mean bias (NMB) of 20.7% for AURAMS versus 46.4% for CMAQ. However, AURAMS and CMAQ had more similar normalized mean errors (NMEs) of 46.9% and 54.2%, respectively. Both models did similarly well in predicting daily 1-h O₃ maximums; however, AURAMS performed better in calculating daily minimums. CMAQ's poorer performance for O₃ is partly due to its inability to correctly predict nighttime lows.Total PM_2.5 hourly surface concentration was under-predicted by both AURAMS and CMAQ with NMBs of ?10.4% and ?65.2%, respectively. However, as with O₃, both models had similar NMEs of 68.0% and 70.6%, respectively. In general, AURAMS performance was better than CMAQ for all major PM_2.5 species except nitrate and elemental carbon. Both models significantly under-predicted total organic aerosols (TOAs), although the mean AURAMS concentration was over four times larger than CMAQ's. The under-prediction of TOA was partly due to the exclusion of forest-fire emissions. Sea-salt aerosol made up approximately 50.2% of the AURAMS total PM_2.5 surface concentration versus only 6.2% in CMAQ when averaged over all grid cells. When averaged over land cells only, sea-salt still contributed 13.9% to the total PM_2.5 mass in AURAMS versus 2.0% in CMAQ.     

Process analysis of a regional air pollution episode over Pearl River Delta Region,China, using the MM5-CMAQ model

This study focuses on the influences of a warm high-pressure meteorological system on aerosol pollutants, employing the simulations by the Models-3/CMAQ system and the observations collected during October 10–12, 2004, over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region. The results show that the spatial distributions of air pollutants are generally circular near Guangzhou and Foshan, which are cities with high emissions rates. The primary pollutant is particulate matter (PM) over the PRD. MM5 shows reasonable performance for major meteorological variables (i.e., temperature, relative humidity, wind direction) with normalized mean biases (NMB) of 4.5–38.8% and for their time series. CMAQ can capture one peak of all air pollutant concentrations on October 11, but misses other peaks. The CMAQ model systematically underpredicts the mass concentrations of all air pollutants. Compared with chemical observations, SO₂ and O₃ are predicted well with a correlation coefficient of 0.70 and 0.65. PM_2.5 and NO are significantly underpredicted with an NMB of 43% and 90%, respectively. The process analysis results show that the emission, dry deposition, horizontal transport, and vertical transport are four main processes affecting air pollutants. The contributions of each physical process are different for the various pollutants. The most important process for PM₁₀ is dry deposition, and for NO_x it is transport. The contributions of horizontal and vertical transport processes vary during the period, but these two processes mostly contribute to the removal of air pollutants at Guangzhou city, whose emissions are high. For this high-pressure case, the contributions of the various processes show high correlations in cities with the similar geographical attributes. According to the statistical results, cities in the PRD region are divided into four groups with different features. The contributions from local and nonlocal emission sources are discussed in different groups.

Implications: The characteristics of aerosol pollution episodes are intensively studied in this work using the high-resolution modeling system MM5/SMOKE/CMAQ, with special efforts on examining the contributions of different physical and chemical processes to air concentrations for each city over the PRD region by a process analysis method, so as to provide a scientific basis for understanding the formation mechanism of regional aerosol pollution under the high-pressure system over PRD.     

Sensitivity analyses of factors influencing CMAQ performance for fine particulate nitrate

Improvement of air quality models is required so that they can be utilized to design effective control strategies for fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). The Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system was applied to the Greater Tokyo Area of Japan in winter 2010 and summer 2011. The model results were compared with observed concentrations of PM_2.5 sulfate (SO₄^2-), nitrate (NO₃^?) and ammonium, and gaseous nitric acid (HNO₃) and ammonia (NH₃). The model approximately reproduced PM_2.5 SO₄^2? concentration, but clearly overestimated PM_2.5 NO₃^? concentration, which was attributed to overestimation of production of ammonium nitrate (NH₄NO₃). This study conducted sensitivity analyses of factors associated with the model performance for PM_2.5 NO₃^? concentration, including temperature and relative humidity, emission of nitrogen oxides, seasonal variation of NH₃ emission, HNO₃ and NH₃ dry deposition velocities, and heterogeneous reaction probability of dinitrogen pentoxide. Change in NH₃ emission directly affected NH₃ concentration, and substantially affected NH₄NO₃ concentration. Higher dry deposition velocities of HNO₃ and NH₃ led to substantial reductions of concentrations of the gaseous species and NH₄NO₃. Because uncertainties in NH₃ emission and dry deposition processes are probably large, these processes may be key factors for improvement of the model performance for PM_2.5 NO₃^?.

Implications: The Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system clearly overestimated the concentration of fine particulate nitrate in the Greater Tokyo Area of Japan, which was attributed to overestimation of production of ammonium nitrate. Sensitivity analyses were conducted for factors associated with the model performance for nitrate. Ammonia emission and dry deposition of nitric acid and ammonia may be key factors for improvement of the model performance.     

Comparison of real-time instruments and gravimetric method when measuring particulate matter in a residential building

This study used several real-time and filter-based aerosol instruments to measure PM_2.5 levels in a high-rise residential green building in the Northeastern US and compared performance of those instruments. PM_2.5 24-hr average concentrations were determined using a Personal Modular Impactor (PMI) with 2.5 µm cut (SKC Inc., Eighty Four, PA) and a direct reading pDR-1500 (Thermo Scientific, Franklin, MA) as well as its filter. 1-hr average PM_2.5 concentrations were measured in the same apartments with an Aerotrak Optical Particle Counter (OPC) (model 8220, TSI, Inc., Shoreview, MN) and a DustTrak DRX mass monitor (model 8534, TSI, Inc., Shoreview, MN). OPC and DRX measurements were compared with concurrent 1-hr mass concentration from the pDR-1500. The pDR-1500 direct reading showed approximately 40% higher particle mass concentration compared to its own filter (n = 41), and 25% higher PM_2.5 mass concentration compared to the PMI_2.5 filter. The pDR-1500 direct reading and PMI_2.5 in non-smoking homes (self-reported) were not significantly different (n = 10, R² = 0.937), while the difference between measurements for smoking homes was 44% (n = 31, R² = 0.773). Both OPC and DRX data had substantial and significant systematic and proportional biases compared with pDR-1500 readings. However, these methods were highly correlated: R² = 0.936 for OPC versus pDR-1500 reading and R² = 0.863 for DRX versus pDR-1500 reading. The data suggest that accuracy of aerosol mass concentrations from direct-reading instruments in indoor environments depends on the instrument, and that correction factors can be used to reduce biases of these real-time monitors in residential green buildings with similar aerosol properties.

Implications: This study used several real-time and filter-based aerosol instruments to measure PM_2.5 levels in a high-rise residential green building in the northeastern United States and compared performance of those instruments. The data show that while the use of real-time monitors is convenient for measurement of airborne PM at short time scales, the accuracy of those monitors depends on a particular instrument. Bias correction factors identified in this paper could provide guidance for other studies using direct-reading instruments to measure PM concentrations.     

Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 4.5: Sensitivities impacting model performance: Part I—Ozone

This study examines ozone (O₃) predictions from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 4.5 and discusses potential factors influencing the model results. Daily maximum 8-h average O₃ levels are largely underpredicted when observed O₃ levels are above 85 ppb and overpredicted when they are below 35 ppb. Using a clustering approach, model performance was examined separately for several different synoptic regimes. Under the most common synoptic conditions of a typical summertime Bermuda High setup, the model showed good overall performance for O₃, while associations have been identified here between other, less frequent, synoptic regimes and the O₃ overprediction and underprediction biases. A sensitivity test between the CB-IV and CB05 chemical mechanisms showed that predictions of daily maximum 8-h average O₃ using CB05 were on average 7.3% higher than those using CB-IV. Boundary condition (BC) sensitivity tests show that the overprediction biases at low O₃ levels are more sensitive to the BC O₃ levels near the surface than BC concentrations aloft. These sensitivity tests also show the model performance for O₃ improved when using the global GEOS-CHEM BCs instead of default profiles. Simulations using the newest version of the CMAQ model (v4.6) showed a small improvement in O₃ predictions, particularly when vertical layers were not collapsed. Collectively, the results suggest that key synoptic weather patterns play a leading role in the prediction biases, and more detailed study of these episodes are needed to identify further modeling improvements.     

Errors in coarse particulate matter mass concentrations and spatiotemporal characteristics when using subtraction estimation methods

In studies of coarse particulate matter (PM_10-2.5), mass concentrations are often estimated through the subtraction of PM_2.5 from collocated PM₁₀ tapered element oscillating microbalance (TEOM) measurements. Though all field instruments have yet to be updated, the Filter Dynamic Measurement System (FDMS) was introduced to account for the loss of semivolatile material from heated TEOM filters. To assess errors in PM_10-2.5 estimation when using the possible combinations of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 TEOM units with and without FDMS, data from three monitoring sites of the Colorado Coarse Rural–Urban Sources and Health (CCRUSH) study were used to simulate four possible subtraction methods for estimating PM_10-2.5 mass concentrations. Assuming all mass is accounted for using collocated TEOMs with FDMS, the three other subtraction methods were assessed for biases in absolute mass concentration, temporal variability, spatial correlation, and homogeneity. Results show collocated units without FDMS closely estimate actual PM_10-2.5 mass and spatial characteristics due to the very low semivolatile PM_10-2.5 concentrations in Colorado. Estimation using either a PM_2.5 or PM₁₀ monitor without FDMS introduced absolute biases of 2.4 µg/m³ (25%) to –2.3 µg/m³ (–24%), respectively. Such errors are directly related to the unmeasured semivolatile mass and alter measures of spatiotemporal variability and homogeneity, all of which have implications for the regulatory and epidemiology communities concerned about PM_10-2.5. Two monitoring sites operated by the state of Colorado were considered for inclusion in the CCRUSH acute health effects study, but concentrations were biased due to sampling with an FDMS-equipped PM_2.5 TEOM and PM₁₀ TEOM not corrected for semivolatile mass loss. A regression-based model was developed for removing the error in these measurements by estimating the semivolatile concentration of PM_2.5 from total PM_2.5 concentrations. By estimating nonvolatile PM_2.5 concentrations from this relationship, PM_10-2.5 was calculated as the difference between nonvolatile PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 concentrations.

Implications: Errors in the estimation of PM_10-2.5 concentrations using subtraction methods were shown to be related to the unmeasured semivolatile mass when using certain combinations of TEOM instruments. For the northeastern Colorado region, the absolute bias associated with this error significantly affects mean and 95th percentile values, which would affect assessment of compliance if PM_10-2.5 is regulated in the future. Estimating PM_10-2.5 mass concentrations using nonvolatile mass concentrations from collocated PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 TEOM monitors closely estimates the total PM_10-2.5 mass concentrations. A corrective model that removes the described error was developed and applied to data from two sites in Denver.

Supplemental Materials: Supplemental materials are available for this paper. Go to the publisher's online edition of the Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association.     

Ambient suspended particulate matters and related chemical species study in central Taiwan,Taichung during 1998–2001

Ambient suspended particulate (PM_2.5, PM_2.5–10, TSP) was collected from June 1998 to February 2001 in Taichung, central Taiwan. In addition, the related water-soluble ionic species (Cl⁻, NO₃⁻, SO₄²⁻, Na⁺, NH₄⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺) and metallic species (Fe, Zn, Pb, Ni) were also analyzed in this study. The results showed that the concentrations of particulate mass are higher in the traffic site (CCRT) than the other sampling sites in this study. Also, the fine particle (PM_2.5) concentration is the dominant species of the total suspended particles in Taichung, central Taiwan. The dominant species for PM_2.5 are sulfate and ammonium at all sampling sites during the period of 1998–2001. The results of diurnal variation at THUC sampling site are also discussed in this study. Overall, acidic and secondary aerosol (Cl⁻, NO₃⁻, SO₄²⁻ and NH₄⁺) is a more serious air pollutant issue in southern and central Taiwan than at several sites around the world. Therefore, ambient suspended particulate monitoring in Taichung, central Taiwan will be continuing in our following study to provide more information for the government to formulate environmental strategy.     

A statistical model for predicting PM2.5 for the western United States

ABSTRACT

A new statistical model for predicting daily ground level fine scale particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations at monitoring sites in the western United States was developed and tested operationally during the 2016 and 2017 wildfire seasons. The model is site-specific, using a multiple linear regression schema that relies on the previous day’s PM_2.5 value, along with fire and smoke related variables from satellite observations. Fire variables include fire radiative power (FRP) and the National Fire Danger Rating System Energy Release Component index. Smoke variables, in addition to ground monitored PM_2.5, include aerosol optical depth (AOD) and smoke plume perimeters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Hazard Mapping System. The overall statistical model was inspired by a similar system developed for British Columbia (BC) by the BC Center for Disease Control, but it has been heavily modified and adapted to work in the United States. On average, our statistical model was able to explain 78% of the variance in daily ground level PM_2.5. A novel method for implementation of this model as an operational forecast system was also developed and was tested and used during the 2016 and 2017 wildfire seasons. This method focused on producing a continuously-updating prediction that incorporated the latest information available throughout the day, including both updated remote sensing data and real-time PM_2.5 observations. The diurnal pattern of performance of this model shows that even a few hours of data early in the morning can substantially improve model performance.

Implications: Wildfire smoke events produce significant air quality impacts across the western United States each year impacting millions. We present and evaluate a statistical model for making updating predictions of fine particulate (PM_2.5) levels during smoke events. These predictions run hourly and are being used by smoke incident specialists assigned to wildfire operations, and may be of interest to public health officials, air quality regulators, and the public. Predictions based on this model will be available on the web for the 2019 western U.S. wildfire season this summer.     

Long-term variation of PM2.5 levels and composition at rural, urban, and roadside sites in Hong Kong: Increasing impact of regional air pollution

Long-term study of air pollution plays a decisive role in formulating and refining pollution control strategies. In this study, two 12-month measurements of PM_2.5 mass and speciation were conducted in 00/01 and 04/05 to determine long-term trend and spatial variations of PM_2.5 mass and chemical composition in Hong Kong. This study covered three sites with different land-use characteristics, namely roadside, urban, and rural environments. The highest annual average PM_2.5 concentration was observed at the roadside site (58.0±2.0 μg m⁻³ (average±2σ) in 00/01 and 53.0±2.7 μg m⁻³ in 04/05), followed by the urban site (33.9±2.5 μg m⁻³ in 00/01 and 39.0±2.0 μg m⁻³ in 04/05), and the rural site (23.7±1.9 μg m⁻³ in 00/01 and 28.4±2.4 μg m⁻³ in 04/05). The lowest PM_2.5 level measured at the rural site was still higher than the United States’ annual average National Ambient Air Quality Standard of 15 μg m⁻³. As expected, seasonal variations of PM_2.5 mass concentration at the three sites were similar: higher in autumn/winter and lower in summer. Comparing PM_2.5 data in 04/05 with those collected in 00/01, a reduction in PM_2.5 mass concentration at the roadside (8.7%) but an increase at the urban (15%) and rural (20%) sites were observed. The reduction of PM_2.5 at the roadside was attributed to the decrease of carbonaceous aerosols (organic carbon and elemental carbon) (>30%), indicating the effective control of motor vehicle emissions over the period. On the other hand, the sulfate concentration at the three sites was consistent regardless of different land-use characteristics in both studies. The lack of spatial variation of sulfate concentrations in PM_2.5 implied its origin of regional contribution. Moreover, over 36% growth in sulfate concentration was found from 00/01 to 04/05, suggesting a significant increase in regional sulfate pollution over the years. More quantitative techniques such as receptor models and chemical transport models are required to assess the temporal variations of source contributions to ambient PM_2.5 mass and chemical speciation in Hong Kong.     

Partitioning of nitrate and ammonium between the gas and particulate phases during the 1997 IMADA-AVER study in Mexico City

The partitioning of nitrate and ammonium between the gas and particulate phases is studied combining available equilibrium models and measurements taken in Mexico City during the 1997 IMADA-AVER field campaign. Based on this analysis, there are no significant differences in model predictions, but some discrepancies exist between predictions and observations. The inclusion of crustal elements in the modeling framework improves agreement of model predictions for particulate nitrate against measurements by approximately 5%. Although some equilibrium aerosol models do not explicitly treat crustal elements, these species can be treated as equivalent concentrations of sodium. Atmospheric equilibrium models predict daily average PM_2.5 nitrate concentrations within 20% of the IMADA-AVER measurements at the MER site. Six-hour average PM_2.5 nitrate concentrations are predicted within 30–50% on average except for the afternoon sampling periods (12:00–18:00 h). Investigating the possible sources of these discrepancies, it appears that a dynamic instead of an equilibrium approach is more suitable in reproducing aerosol behavior during these afternoon periods. By applying the Multicomponent Aerosol Dynamic Model (MADM), model performance in predicting concentrations of particulate nitrate significantly improves during the afternoon periods.     

Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part II: Evaluation of air quality predictions and air quality benefits assessment

Following the meteorological evaluation in Part I, this Part II paper presents the statistical evaluation of air quality predictions by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA)’s Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (Models-3/CMAQ) model for the four simulated months in the base year 2005. The surface predictions were evaluated using the Air Pollution Index (API) data published by the China Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) for 31 capital cities and daily fine particulate matter (PM_2.5, particles with aerodiameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) observations of an individual site in Tsinghua University (THU). To overcome the shortage in surface observations, satellite data are used to assess the column predictions including tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) column abundance and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The result shows that CMAQ gives reasonably good predictions for the air quality.The air quality improvement that would result from the targeted sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emission controls in China were assessed for the objective year 2010. The results show that the emission controls can lead to significant air quality benefits. SO₂ concentrations in highly polluted areas of East China in 2010 are estimated to be decreased by 30–60% compared to the levels in the 2010 Business-As-Usual (BAU) case. The annual PM_2.5 can also decline by 3–15 μg m^?3 (4–25%) due to the lower SO₂ and sulfate concentrations. If similar controls are implemented for NO_x emissions, NO_x concentrations are estimated to decrease by 30–60% as compared with the 2010 BAU scenario. The annual mean PM_2.5 concentrations will also decline by 2–14 μg m^?3 (3–12%). In addition, the number of ozone (O₃) non-attainment areas in the northern China is projected to be much lower, with the maximum 1-h average O₃ concentrations in the summer reduced by 8–30 ppb.     

A retrospective comparison of model-based forecasted PM2.5 concentrations with measurements

This study presents an assessment of the performance of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical model in forecasting daily PM2.5 (particulate matter < or = 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter) mass concentrations over most of the eastern United States for a 2-yr period from June 14, 2006 to June 13, 2008. Model predictions were compared with filter-based and continuous measurements of PM2.5 mass and species on a seasonal and regional basis. Results indicate an underprediction of PM2.5 mass in spring and summer, resulting from under-predictions in sulfate and total carbon concentrations. During winter, the model overpredicted mass concentrations, mostly at the urban sites in the northeastern United States because of overpredictions in unspeciated PM2.5 (suggesting possible overestimation of primary emissions) and sulfate. A comparison of observed and predicted diurnal profiles of PM2.5 mass at five sites in the domain showed significant discrepancies. Sulfate diurnal profiles agreed in shape across three sites in the southern portion of the domain but differed at two sites in the northern portion of the domain. Predicted organic carbon (OC) profiles were similar in shape to mass, suggesting that discrepancies in mass profiles probably resulted from the underprediction in OC. The diurnal profiles at a highly urbanized site in New York City suggested that the overpredictions at that site might be resulting from overpredictions during the morning and evening hours, displayed as sharp peaks in predicted profiles. An examination of the predicted planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights also showed possible issues in the modeling of PBL.     

Traffic generated non-exhaust particulate emissions from concrete pavement: A mass and particle size study for two-wheelers and small cars

This study aimed to understand the non-exhaust (NE) emission of particles from wear of summer tire and concrete pavement, especially for two wheelers and small cars. A fully enclosed laboratory-scale model was fabricated to simulate road tire interaction with a facility to collect particles in different sizes. A road was cast using the M-45 concrete mixture and the centrifugal casting method. It was observed that emission of large particle non exhaust emission (LPNE) as well as PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 increased with increasing load. The LPNE was 3.5 mg tire⁻¹ km⁻¹ for a two wheeler and 6.4 mg tire⁻¹ km⁻¹ for a small car. The LPNE can lead to water pollution through water run-off from the roads. The contribution of the PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 was smaller compared to the LPNE particles (less than 0.1%). About 32 percent of particle mass of PM₁₀ was present below 1 μm. The number as well as mass size distribution for PM₁₀ was observed to be bi-modal with peaks at 0.3 μm and 4–5 μm. The NE emissions did not show any significant trend with change in tire pressure.     

Contribution of Primary and Secondary Sources to Organic Aerosol and PM2.5 at SEARCH Network Sites

Abstract

Chemical tracer methods for determining contributions to primary organic aerosol (POA) are fairly well established, whereas similar techniques for secondary organic aerosol (SOA), inherently complicated by time-dependent atmospheric processes, are only beginning to be studied. Laboratory chamber experiments provide insights into the precursors of SOA, but field data must be used to test the approaches. This study investigates primary and secondary sources of organic carbon (OC) and determines their mass contribution to particulate matter 2.5 µm or less in aerodynamic diameter (PM_2.5) in Southeastern Aerosol Research and Characterization (SEARCH) network samples. Filter samples were taken during 20 24-hr periods between May and August 2005 at SEARCH sites in Atlanta, GA (JST); Birmingham, AL (BHM); Centerville, AL (CTR); and Pensacola, FL (PNS) and analyzed for organic tracers by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Contribution to primary OC was made using a chemical mass balance method and to secondary OC using a mass fraction method. Aerosol masses were reconstructed from the contributions of POA, SOA, elemental carbon, inorganic ions (sulfate [SO₄ ^2?], nitrate [NO₃ ^?], ammonium [NH₄ ⁺]), metals, and metal oxides and compared with the measured PM_2.5. From the analysis, OC contributions from seven primary sources and four secondary sources were determined. The major primary sources of carbon were from wood combustion, diesel and gasoline exhaust, and meat cooking; major secondary sources were from isoprene and monoterpenes with minor contributions from toluene and β-caryophyllene SOA. Mass concentrations at the four sites were determined using source-specific organic mass (OM)-to-OC ratios and gave values in the range of 12–42 µg m^?3. Reconstructed masses at three of the sites (JST, CTR, PNS) ranged from 87 to 91% of the measured PM_2.5 mass. The reconstructed mass at the BHM site exceeded the measured mass by approximately 25%. The difference between the reconstructed and measured PM_2.5 mass for nonindustrial areas is consistent with not including aerosol liquid water or other sources of organic aerosol.     

Comparison of Real-Time Instruments Used To Monitor Airborne Particulate Matter

ABSTRACT

Measurements collected using five real-time continuous airborne particle monitors were compared to measurements made using reference filter-based samplers at Bakers-field, CA, between December 2, 1998, and January 31, 1999. The purpose of this analysis was to evaluate the suitability of each instrument for use in a real-time continuous monitoring network designed to measure the mass of airborne particles with an aerodynamic diam less than 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) under wintertime conditions in the southern San Joaquin Valley. Measurements of airborne particulate mass made with a beta attenuation monitor (BAM), an integrating nephelometer, and a continuous aerosol mass monitor (CAMM) were found to correlate well with reference measurements made with a filter-based sampler. A Dusttrak aerosol sampler overestimated airborne particle concentrations by a factor of ~3 throughout the study. Measurements of airborne particulate matter made with a tapered element oscillating microbalance (TEOM) were found to be lower than the reference filter-based measurements by an amount approximately equal to the concentration of NH₄NO₃ observed to be present in the airborne particles. The performance of the Dusttrak sampler and the integrating nephelometer was affected by the size distribution of airborne particulate matter. The performance of the BAM, the integrating nephelometer, the CAMM, the Dusttrak sampler, and the TEOM was not strongly affected by temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, or wind direction within the range of conditions encountered in the current study. Based on instrument performance, the BAM, the integrating nephelometer, and the CAMM appear to be suitable candidates for deployment in a real-time continuous PM_2.5 monitoring network in central California for the range of winter conditions and aerosol composition encountered during the study.     

Air Quality Measurements from the Fresno Supersite

ABSTRACT

The Fresno Supersite intends to 1) evaluate non-routine monitoring methods, establishing their comparability with existing methods and their applicability to air quality planning, exposure assessment, and health effects studies; 2) provide a better understanding of aerosol characteristics, behavior, and sources to assist regulatory agencies in developing standards and strategies that protect public health; and 3) support studies that evaluate relationships between aerosol properties, co-factors, and observed health end-points. Supersite observables include in-situ, continuous, short-duration measurements of 1) PM_2.5, PM₁₀, and coarse (PM₁₀ minus PM_2.5) mass; 2) PM_2.5 SO₄ ^-2, NO₃ ^-, carbon, light absorption, and light extinction; 3) numbers of particles in discrete size bins ranging from 0.01 to ~10μm; 4) criteria pollutant gases (O₃, CO, NO_x); 5) reactive gases (NO₂, NO_y, HNO₃, peroxyacetyl nitrate [PAN], NH₃); and 6) single particle characterization by time-of-flight mass spectrometry. Field sampling and laboratory analysis are applied for gaseous and particulate organic compounds (light hydrocarbons, heavy hydrocarbons, carbonyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons [PAH], and other semi-volatiles), and PM_2.5 mass, elements, ions, and carbon. Observables common to other Supersites are 1) daily PM_2.5 24-hr average mass with Federal Reference Method (FRM) samplers; 2) continuous hourly and 5-min average PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ mass with beta attenuation monitors (BAM) and tapered element oscillating microbalances (TEOM); 3) PM_2.5 chemical specia-tion with a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) speciation monitor and protocol; 4) coarse particle mass by dichotomous sampler and difference between PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 BAM and TEOM measurements; 5) coarse particle chemical composition; and 6) high sensitivity and time resolution scalar and vector wind speed, wind direction, temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, and solar radiation. The Fresno Supersite is coordinated with health and toxicological studies that will use these data in establishing relationships with asthma, other respiratory disease, and cardiovascular changes in human and animal subjects.