青海湖地区历史时期以来的气候变化

利用青海湖流域及邻近地区树木年轮资料重建的历史时期气候资料序列，讨论了湖我近六百年来的气候变化，给出了主要冷，暖，湿潮，并对湖区１９５８～１９９５年器测时期的气候变化趋势和气候突变现象作了统计分析，指出了近百年来气候暖干化是造成湖水位下降的主要原因。     

基于突变理论的农地肥力评价

应用突变理论，给出了农地肥力评价的突变评价模型，验证了其合理性和可行性。研究表明，突变理论适合于解决复杂系统的多准则决策问题。由于不需要考虑指标权重，能有效减少评价的主观性，适应范围广，是一种行之有效的数学分析方法。     

基于动态联盟利益分配模型的宅基地退出增值收益分配研究

基于动态联盟利益分配模型,结合重庆的实证,定量分析了宅基地退出中增值收益分配比例。结果表明:(1)动态联盟利益分配模型在宅基地退出增值收益分配测算中的应用是可行的。(2)联盟成员参与退地增值收益分配比例的高低受其投资额与所担风险大小的影响,各成员投资额与所担风险越大,所获得的理论增值收益分配比例越高。(3)重庆现行的退地增值收益分配的比例标准为85∶15,在市域层面较好地兼顾了退地农民和集体收益。(4)退地增值收益理论分配比例存在地域差异,且经济欠发达区域退地增值收益分配更倾向农民,原因是欠发达地区农民在宅基地退出过程中的边际福利变化和承担的生计风险更大。     

辽宁沿海经济带产业投资结构关系的实证分析

投资结构与产业结构是相互影响、相互制约的,优化固定资产投资结构将促进产业结构的升级。运用计量经济学中的协整理论对沿海经济带产业投资结构进行实证研究,结果表明,辽宁沿海经济带第二产业与第三产业的GDP与其投资额之间具有长期稳定的均衡关系,而第一产业则不存在这种关系。从格兰杰因果关系检验结果看出,辽宁沿海经济带第二产业的投资额与其GDP之间具有单向因果关系,第三产业投资额与其GDP之间存在双向因果关系。     

上海节能环保产业发展影响因素分析及预测

利用主成分分析法选取适当指标构建多元线性回归预测模型,对代表上海市节能环保产业发展水平的产业投资额进行预测研究。通过检验分析,该模型拟合度较好、显著性水平较高,预测结果具有可信性。预测研究表明,上海市节能环保产业将每年呈现增长趋势,发展前景较好。     

可持续发展的突变评判法

首次将系统新三论之一的突变理论应用于可持续发展评价的研究中。介绍了突变评判法的基本原理和使用步骤，并运用该方法对天津市的可持续发展状态进行了评价。     

近57年格尔木市气候变化特征

利用格尔木市气象台观测站1961—2017年年平均气温、最高气温、最低气温及降水资料,采用气候倾向率的方法及Mann-Kendall突变检验,分析格尔木市近57a气候变化趋势及突变年份。结果表明:近57a来,格尔木市年平均气温、最高气温和最低气温均呈极显著的增温趋势,最低气温增温最明显,冬季增温对年平均气温增高贡献率最大。年代际变化中最低温度是历史温度升温最快的一项。最高温度在1996年发生了明显的突变。近57a的年降水量呈增加趋势,气候倾向率为2.2mm/10a。季节变化中冬季降水量增加显著。年代际中表现为21世纪降水量增加最明显。降水日数呈弱增加趋势,冬夏比春秋增加略多,夏半年和冬半年气候倾向率均为0.6d/10a,说明57a来降水日数无论冬半年还是夏半年变化一致,且变幅较小。     

鄂尔多斯房地产业对经济增长的带动效应研究

随着经济活动的增加,鄂尔多斯市在房地产需求递增的同时出现产能过剩.从房地产业来探究鄂尔多斯市经济发展的客观规律,通过分析鄂尔多斯市房地产投资与GDP的协整关系,对鄂尔多斯市1998-2011年房地产投资与GDP序列平稳性检验、协整检验和Grange因果关系检验来确定房地产业与城市经济发展两者之间的因果关系,通过误差修正模型来确定带动效应.结果表明,鄂尔多斯市房地产投资额每增长1％,将带动城市GDP增长0.523905％.     

江苏省土地整治时空格局分异及其主控因素

为探索土地整治成效,利用指数分析法、冗余分析法研究了江苏省土地整治时空格局演变及其主控因素。结果表明:①2001—2017年江苏省土地整治建设规模和投资额呈波浪式上升,新增耕地率则持续下降。②空间格局上呈聚集分布,且地域分异显著。③建设规模、投资额和新增耕地面积重心总体上呈由南向北移动趋势。④耕地自然质量等、GDP中"一产"占比、新增耕地潜力、耕地产量和财政转移支付收入是推进土地整治实施的关键因子,其前期受自然条件影响大,后期受经济、政策的影响显著。今后应制定差别化的土地整治政策,以人为本,引导公众参与,完善制度执行框架。     

气候变暖下柴达木盆地风速、大风和沙尘暴日数的变化特征分析

利用柴达木盆地9个气象观测站1961～2018年平均气温、风速、大风日数和沙尘暴日数资料,用线性趋势、m-k检验、相关性分析和变异系数对柴达木盆地平均气温、大风和沙尘暴日数变化特征进行详细分析,结果表明,58年来柴达木盆地平均气温呈上升趋势,且通过了0.01的显著性检验.气温突变年份发生在1987年左右,与累积距平曲线...     

Double catastrophe: intermittent stratospheric geoengineering induced by societal collapse

Perceived failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has prompted interest in avoiding the harms of climate change via geoengineering, that is, the intentional manipulation of Earth system processes. Perhaps the most promising geoengineering technique is stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), which reflects incoming solar radiation, thereby lowering surface temperatures. This paper analyzes a scenario in which SAI brings great harm on its own. The scenario is based on the issue of SAI intermittency, in which aerosol injection is halted, sending temperatures rapidly back toward where they would have been without SAI. The rapid temperature increase could be quite damaging, which in turn creates a strong incentive to avoid intermittency. In the scenario, a catastrophic societal collapse eliminates society’s ability to continue SAI, despite the incentive. The collapse could be caused by a pandemic, nuclear war, or other global catastrophe. The ensuing intermittency hits a population that is already vulnerable from the initial collapse, making for a double catastrophe. While the outcomes of the double catastrophe are difficult to predict, plausible worst-case scenarios include human extinction. The decision to implement SAI is found to depend on whether global catastrophe is more likely from double catastrophe or from climate change alone. The SAI double catastrophe scenario also strengthens arguments for greenhouse gas emissions reductions and against SAI, as well as for building communities that could be self-sufficient during global catastrophes. Finally, the paper demonstrates the value of integrative, systems-based global catastrophic risk analysis.     

Emerging applications of green coconut: A promising lignocellulosic biomass

Waste accumulation is a grave concern and becoming a transboundary challenge for environment. During Covid-19 pandemic, diverse type of waste were collected due to different practices employed in order to fight back the transmission rate of the virus. Covid-19 was proved to be capricious catastrophe of this 20th century and even not completely eradicated from the world. The havoc created by this imperceptible quick witted, pleomorphic deadly virus can't be ignored. Though a number of vaccines have been developed by the scientists but there is a fear of getting this virus again in our life. Medical studies prove that immunity drinks will help to reduce its reoccurrences. Coconut water is widely used among all drinks available globally. Its massive consumption created an incalculable pile of green coconut shells around the different corners of the world. This practice generating enormous problem of space acquisition for the environment. Both the environment and public health will benefit from an evaluation of quantity of coconut waste that is being thrown and its potential to generate value added products. With this context, present article has been planned to study different aspects like, coconut waste generation, its biological properties and environmental hazards associated with its accumulation. Additionally, this review illustrates, green technologies for production of different value added products from coconut waste.     

A nonequilibrium thermodynamic framework for discussing ecosystem integrity

During the last 20 years our understanding of the development of complex systems has changed significantly. Two major advancements are catastrophe theory and nonequilibrium thermodynamics with its associated theory of self-organization. These theories indicate that complex system development is nonlinear, discontinuous (catastrophes), not predictable (bifurcations), and multivalued (multiple developmental pathways). Ecosystem development should be expected to exhibit these characteristics. Traditional ecological theory has attempted to describe ecosystem stress response using some simple notions such as stability and resiliency. In fact, stress-response must be characterized by a richer set of concepts. The ability of the system to maintain its current operating point in the face of the stress, must be ascertained. If the system changes operating points, there are several questions to be considered: Is the change along the original developmental pathway or a new one? Is the change organizing or disorganizing? Will the system return to its original state? Will the system flip to some new state in a catastrophic way? Is the change acceptable to humans? The integrity of an ecosystem does not reflect a single characteristic of an ecosystem. The concept of integrity must be seen as multidimensional and encompassing a rich set of ecosystem behaviors. A framework of concepts for discussing integrity is presented in this article.     

Mapping Locust Habitats in the Amudarya River Delta,Uzbekistan with Multi-Temporal MODIS Imagery

Reed beds of Phragmites australis in the River Amudarya delta near the Aral Sea constitute permanent breeding areas of the Asian Migratory locust, Locusta migratoria migratoria. Every year, thousands of hectares are treated with broad-spectrum insecticides to prevent locust swarms from damaging crops in adjacent areas. To devise efficient locust monitoring and management plans, accurate and updated information about the spatial distribution of reeds is necessary. Given the vast geographic extent of the delta, traditional, ground survey methods are inadequate. Remotely sensed data collected by the MODIS sensor aboard the TERRA satellite provide a useful tool to characterize the spatial distribution of reeds. Multi-temporal MODIS data, collected at different times of the growing season, were used to generate spectral-temporal signatures for reeds and other land cover classes. These spectral-temporal signatures were matched with reed phenology. MODIS information was digitally classified to generate a land cover map with an overall accuracy of 74%. MODIS data captured 87% of the ground-verified reed locations. Estimates derived from MODIS data indicate that 18% of the study area was covered by reeds. However, high commission error resulted from misclassification of reeds mixed with shrubs class and shrubs class as reeds. This could have resulted in overprediction of the area covered by reeds. Additional research is needed to minimize the overlap between reeds and other vegetation classes (shrubs, and reed and shrub mix). Nevertheless, despite its relatively low spatial resolution (250 m), multi-temporal MODIS data were able to adequately capture the distribution of reeds. Instead of blanketing the fragile wetland ecosystem of the Amudarya delta with chemical anti-locust treatments, plant protection specialists can use this information to devise ecologically sound pest management plans aimed at reducing the adverse environmental impact in the zone of the Aral Sea ecological catastrophe. MODIS methodology to identify reed stands can be applicable to the Migratory locust habitats in other geographic areas.     

新安江水库水环境主要问题及保护对策

新安江水库是钱塘江的重要水源,对保障钱塘江中下游的生态安全和水体功能起着举足轻重的作用。为阐明新安江水库在流域经济发展和人类活动的影响下水环境的主要问题及保护对策,促进饮用水安全保障及构建健康水域生态系统,本文对新安江水库历年的水环境指标、浮游生物群落结构及其变化及水域生态灾变事件资料进行了综合分析。目前新安江水库存在上游来水变差、局部水域藻类异常增殖、渔业生产不合理、营养程度加重等众多问题,但其突出问题是藻类生物量增长过快。新安江水库水环境保护工作要从关注水质向维持生态系统健康转变,并尽快开展生态保育工作,控制流域污染、降低藻类数量、减少藻类异常增殖影响、科学合理渔业生产是其下一步保护的关键。而关于新安江水库的研究,虽然有一定的研究基础和资料,但对水域生态系统缺乏系统认识。研究气候变化条件下新安江水库水域生态系统的结构和功能以及长期演变规律;水利调度导致水位调整对区域水动力学条件、营养物输送过程的影响及评价水利调度对水库重要环境因子和生态系统影响;渔业养殖对水环境的影响,特别是鲢、鳙鱼大水面积养殖对水库生态系统的影响应是今后新安江水库主要的研究领域和方向。     

Extensions of stochastic multiscenario models for long-range planning under uncertainty

In the twenty-first century, the goals of mankind are evolving from rising prosperity to attaining long-range sustainable survival in an acceptable state. Such change will lead to a paradigm shift predicted by Thomas Kuhn. This situation motivates two novel generalized systems, Risk-Constrained Optimization (RCO) and its derivative, Risk-Constrained Optimization/Decision Network (RCO/DN). RCO aims for flexible and robust strategies across large ranges of scenarios and risks. It assumes that for any “serious” (complex and long-range) planning and decision-making problem, externalities are important and uncertainty is radical. Therefore, it rejects the very concept of the correct or the best strategy, replacing it with a strategy that is the most acceptable to decision-maker(s). RCO considers decision-support systems, models, and algorithms to be tools of analysis, rather than methods of selection of the best. It replaces the artificial and risky paradigm of maximization by a cautious natural and evolutionary paradigm of catastrophe avoidance. RCO filters out the worst and riskiest candidate strategies, leaving for judgmental selection a small set of flexible, robust, and reasonably safe strategies. For that purpose, RCO employs enhanced stochastic multiscenario (ESMS) models, transforming them into optimizing filters. It is important that this operation is achieved in accordance with a new principle—changing the overall solution by affecting the values of scenario-specific, rather than general, outcome variables. Furthermore, RCO screens decisions and strategies by several synthetic criteria in a framework of novel strategic frontiers. Thus, RCO embeds ESMS into an ensemble of mutually supporting risk management techniques, legitimizing high-level analytical use of a computer plus optimization model combination.     

The risks of radiation

Summary The risks of radioactivity are a really complicated matter, yet they are much better known than are the risks relating to thousands of chemical poisons that occur in our environment. The greatest mistakes are probably made in the definition of safety margins. Except for the bombs dropped in Japan and one other case in the Marshall Islands, there has always—luckily—been a wide safety margin between fallout radiation and doses dangerous to health; the margin has actually been about 1000-fold. The Chernobyl dose of 0.5 mGy/year that we received is only 1/1000 of the acute dose of 0.5 Gy which would cause a slight and nonpermanent change in the blood picture.There is no such safety margin with respect to many air pollutants. The safety standards for sulfuric or nitric oxides, ozone and so on, have been set only just below the level that already causes a health hazard, and these standards are exceeded once in a while. Otherwise, traffic would have to be forbidden and many industrial plants, especially power stations using coal, would have to stop working whenever a low-temperature inversion occurred. Environmental radioactivity does not represent a likely health risk in Finland unless a nuclear war breaks out. Air pollutants, on the contrary, are a real and almost daily health risk that should be carefully considered when decisions about our energy production are being made.In spite of what happened at Chernobyl, global consumption of nuclear power will double by the year 2000, since there are about 140 nuclear power plants presently under construction. It is not likely that another catastrophe like Chernobyl will happen, yet nuclear plant accidents are of course possible, even if their likelihood is diminished by improving reactor safety and even if any eventual damage could be expected to be smaller. If a reactor is hooded by a containment structure, no significant release of radioactive materials should be possible even in case of an accident. However, we must be prepared to protect the population with carefully planned civil defense and radiation protection measures.I would like to sum up all of this as follows: The risks of radiation are a fact, but the fear they arouse is often disproportionate. There are risks related to all other methods of energy production as well; nuclear power is no exception in that respect. It is good that we aim at greater safety, but I hope that false presumptions will not lead us to mistaking a less safe alternative for a safer one.     

APPLICATION OF A SINGLE RESERVOIR OPERATION POLICY TO A RAIN WATER CISTERN SYSTEM1

The operation policy for a single reservoir is applied to a rain water cistern system because the functions of a cistern are similar to a simple single reservoir. Since the cistern is a closed system, water loss is negligible. In this study, a dynamic programming analysis has been made to study the effects of the probable weekly rainfall and the water storage in the cistern towards the water consumption policy. The result of this study indicates that the water consumption rate should be adjusted into a lower rate when the water storage in the cistern is low and/or when the expected probable weekly rainfall is low if the owner of the cistern does not want to risk the chance of an empty cistern. The demand for a reliable method for forecasting weekly rainfall is evident in this study.     

Community Sustainability Plans to enable change towards sustainable practice – a Scottish case study

There is a need for a global shift towards a low-carbon society and this requires action at the local level. The aim of the study into sustainable community development is to clarify the role of a community as a whole rather than the role of individuals within that community. Mixed methods of literature review and empirical study have been used to translate the knowledge and experience with urban sustainable development into empirical knowledge of a rural, market town setting. The exemplary case study is the Scottish market town Huntly. The main findings of the study show the need for three ingredients for a Community Sustainability Plan for a town such as Huntly. Community involvement is crucial in developing such plans in a rural setting. Further research in more remote settings, e.g. coastal and island communities, is needed to allow broader conclusions on rural sustainable development.