Global estimates of soil carbon sequestration via livestock waste: a STELLA simulation

It has become increasingly well documented that human activities are enhancing the greenhouse effect and altering the global climate. Identifying strategies to mitigate atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions on the national level are therefore critical. Fossil fuel combustion is primarily responsible for the perturbation of the global carbon cycle, although the influence of humans extends far beyond the combustion of fossil fuels. Changes in land use arising from human activities contribute substantially to atmospheric carbon dioxide; however, land use changes can act as a carbon dioxide sink as well. A soil carbon model was built using STELLA to explore how soil organic carbon sequestration (SOC) varies over a range of values for key parameters and to estimate the amount of global soil carbon sequestration from livestock waste. To obtain soil carbon sequestration estimates, model simulations occurred for 11 different livestock types and with data for eight regions around the world. The model predicted that between 1980 and 1995, United States soils were responsible for the sequestration of 444–602 Tg C from livestock waste. Model simulations further predicted that during the same period, global soil carbon sequestration from livestock waste was 2,810–4,218 Tg C. Our estimates for global SOC sequestration are modest in proportion to other terrestrial carbon sinks (i.e. forest regrowth); however, livestock waste does represent a potential for long-term soil carbon gain. SOC generated from livestock waste is another example of how human activities and land use changes are altering soil processes around the world. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Attributing changes in land cover using independent disturbance datasets: a case study of the Yucatan Peninsula,Mexico

Detailed observations of natural and anthropogenic disturbance events that impact forest structure and the distribution of carbon are essential to estimate changes in terrestrial carbon pools and the associated emissions and removals of greenhouse gasses. Recent advances in remote sensing approaches have resulted in annual and decadal estimates of land-cover change derived from observations using broad-scale moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250 m–1 km imagery. These land-use change estimates, however, are often not attributed directly to a cause or activity and are not well validated, especially in tropical areas. Knowledge of the type of disturbance that caused the observed land-cover changes is important, however, for the quantification of the associated impacts on ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes. In this paper, we provide estimates of the amount of forest land-cover change in a Mexican forested region and propose an approach for attributing the cause of the observed changes to the underlying disturbance driver. To do so, we collate geospatial and remote sensing data from a variety of sources to summarize statistics about the major disturbances within the Yucatan Peninsula, an “early action” region for the reduction of emissions from deforestation and degradation, from 2005 to 2010. We combine the datasets to develop rules to estimate the likely disturbances that caused the observed land-cover changes based on their spatially explicit location. Finally, we compare our observed disturbance rates to those detected using classified land-cover data derived from MODIS.     

Changes in mineral soil organic carbon stocks in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine, 1990–2070; comparison of three models and implications for climate mitigation

Three soil carbon models (RothC, CANDY and the Model of Humus Balance) were used to estimate the impacts of climate change on agricultural mineral soil carbon stocks in European Russia and the Ukraine using detailed spatial data on land-use, future land-use, cropping patterns, agricultural management, climate and soil type. Scenarios of climate were derived from the Hadley Centre climate Version 3 (HadCM3) model; future yields were determined using the Soil–Climate–Yield model, and land use was determined from regional agricultural and economic data and a model of agricultural economics. The models suggest that optimal management, which entails the replacement of row crops with other crops, and the use of extra years of grass in the rotation could reduce Soil organic carbon (SOC) loss in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine by 30–44% compared to the business-as-usual management. The environmentally sustainable management scenario (SUS), though applied for a limited area within the total region, suggests that much of this optimisation could be realised without damaging profitability for farmers.     

Land change in the southern Yucatán: case studies in land change science

The southern Yucatán Peninsular Region project was designed from the outset as an integrative, multidisciplinary program of study examining tropical deforestation in the largest track of seasonal tropical forest remaining in Mexico and in which smallholder agriculture and a major biosphere reserve are juxtaposed in regard to land uses and covers. Treating land as a coupled human–environment system, the project joins the remote sensing, environmental, social, and modeling sciences in a way that is now recognized as land change science. This paper introduces the project, the study region, and six papers that explore some of the coupled system dynamics in the region. These include the sub-regional variation in deforestation, the pan-regional adoption or anticipation of cattle ranching, the emergence of divergent household agricultural and overall livelihood strategies, the roles of cultural and household histories in agricultural livelihood choices, the temporal intensification of swidden cultivation and its implications for forest species, and carbon stocks across cultivation units, including a new econometric modeling application to forecast changes in these stocks.     

Agroforest’s growing role in reducing carbon losses from Jambi (Sumatra), Indonesia

This paper examines the size and intensity of changes among five land categories during the two time intervals in a region of Indonesia that is pioneering negotiations concerning reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). Maps at 1973, 1993, and 2005 indicate that land-cover change is accelerating, while carbon loss is decelerating in Jambi Province, Sumatra. Land dynamics have shifted from Forest loss during 1973–1993 to Agroforest loss during 1993–2005. Forest losses account for most reductions in aboveground carbon during the both time intervals, but Agroforest plays an increasingly important role in carbon reductions during the more recent interval. These results provide motivation for future REDD policies to count carbon changes associated with all influential land categories, such as Agroforests.     

中国城市建设用地扩张与经济增长重心迁移与脱钩关系研究

协调经济增长与土地资源利用关系是经济发展提质增速及可持续城市建设的关键，为探索城市建设用地扩张与经济增长的时空演变特征及其耦合趋势，运用重心模型、Tapio弹性指数对建设用地扩张与经济增长的空间耦合关系与脱钩状态进行测度，并构建计量模型，检验了经济、社会、政策等因素对城市扩张的影响。结果表明：（1）中国经济与建设用地规模保持双增长态势，中西部地区近年来建设用地扩张更加明显，经济和建设用地重心均呈现西南方向迁移，但空间耦合性逐渐减弱；（2）中国经济与建设用地脱钩关系不断恶化，脱钩状态分布格局变化明显，东部地区脱钩状况逐渐改善；（3）社会经济因素是城市扩张的关键推动力，政策、产业集聚等也在一定程度上促进城市扩张。未来要重点加强对中西部地区城市土地扩张的管控，对于东部地区而言，则要在经济转型的过程中寻求产业转型与土地利用转型的契合点，追求城市的精明增长。     

Soil organic carbon dynamics of croplands in European Russia: estimates from the “model of humus balance”

The Model of Humus Balance was used to estimate the influence of climate effects and changing agricultural practices on carbon (C) levels in soddy–podzolic soils in the Russian Federation for the years 2000–2050. The model was linked with a spatial database containing soil, climate and farming management layers for identification of spatial change of C sequestration potential. Analysis of relationships between C, soil texture and climate indicated that compared with a business-as-usual scenario, adaptation measures could increase the number of polygons storing soil organic carbon (SOC) by 2010–2020. The rate of possible C loss is sensitive to the different climate scenarios, with a maximum potential for SOC accumulation expected in 2030–2040, thereafter decreasing to 2050. The effect is most pronounced for the arid part of the study area under the emission scenario with the highest rate of increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration, supporting findings from the dynamic SOC model, RothC. C sequestration during the study period was permanent for clay and clay loam soils with a C content of more than 2%, suggesting that C sequestration should be focused on highly fertile, fine-textured soils. We also show that spatial heterogeneity of soil texture can be a source of uncertainty for estimates of SOC dynamics at the regional scale. Figures in color are available at     

Simulating the effects of urbanization,afforestation and cropland abandonment on a regional carbon balance: a case study for Central Germany

The newly developed model system HILLS is used to simulate recent (1990–2000) and future (up to 2020) changes in land use and carbon sequestration over Central Germany. HILLS is unique as that it integrates the spatially explicit land-use-change model LUC-Hesse with the dynamic ecosystem model Century under a GIS platform. With this new tool, the concurrent effects of urbanization, afforestation and cropland abandonment on regional carbon sequestration are analyzed for an exemplary “Business as Usual” scenario. During the simulation period, afforestation was estimated to sequester 880 Gg C and cropland abandonment 783 Gg C. Urbanization was estimated to release 336 Gg C formerly stored in soil organic matter and thereby offsets about 20% of the C sequestered by cropland abandonment and afforestation. The case study shows that urbanization can partly counteract the benefits of carbon sequestration resulting from other land-use changes and should be investigated in other carbon balances.     

Aggregated Estimation of Basic Parameters of Biological Production and the Carbon Budget of Russian Terrestrial Ecosystems: 2. Net Primary Production

The estimated net primary production (NPP) of Russian terrestrial ecosystems (annual average over the period from 1988 to 1992) is 9544 Tg of dry matter, or 4353 Tg of carbon. Of the total amount, forests account for approximately 39.2% (here and below, comparisons are made with respect to carbon content); natural grasslands and brushwoods, for 27.6%; farmlands (arable land and cultivated pastures), for 22.0%; and wetlands, for 11.2%. The average NPP density on lands covered with vegetation (1629.8 million hectares in Russia) is 267 g C/m²per year. The highest value (498 g C/m²per year) is characteristic of arable lands. Other land-use/land-cover (LULC) classes have the following NPP densities (in areas covered with vegetation): grasslands and brushwoods, 278 g C/m²; forests, 224 g C/m²; and wetlands, 219 g C/m²per year. In general, Russian terrestrial ecosystems accumulate 59.7% of the total NPP in the aboveground phytomass (47.8% in green parts and 11.9% in wood) and 40.3% in the underground phytomass. The latter parameter differs significantly in different LULC classes and bioclimatic zones. According to calculations, the uncertainty in estimating the total NPP is 11% (a priori confidential probability 0.9).     

建设用地空间错配理论、机制与效益损失:基于湖北省的实证

研究建设用地空间错配特征及内在机制,对纠正土地资源错配、优化土地资源配置机制具有现实意义。基于资源错配理论对土地资源错配理论开展梳理,提出建设用地错配机制假说,运用边际分析法和计量方法构建建设用地空间错配测度模型及机制检验模型,并以湖北省为例进行实证研究。结果表明:①1996—2017年湖北省建设用地过度错配与短缺错配并存,空间错配程度总体上有所改善,但局部地区错配程度加剧。②土地负外部性扩散、非均衡发展、非市场化供应、土地财政依赖等加剧了建设用地空间错配,优化产业结构、减少政府腐败、发展多元所有制等有利于降低建设用地空间错配程度。③1996—2017年湖北省建设用地空间错配效率损失由6.92%下降到3.84%,年均减少2.03%,效率损失得到缓解。④从损失值看,湖北省建设用地空间错配效率损失严重,1996—2017年累计经济损失达3.90×10^4亿元。主要结论:建设用地空间错配测度模型兼顾了土地配置的效率与公平,可以作为建设用地空间错配程度衡量的有效方法;建设用地空间错配已经成为阻碍经济增长的重要因素之一,纠正建设用地空间错配,能有效促进区域经济增长;土地市场配置和政府主导配置均会带来建设用地空间错配,建设用地配置中一个“有效的市场”与“有为的政府”结合十分必要且迫切。     

基于SD和CLUE-S模型的区域土地利用变化对土壤有机碳储量影响研究

土地利用/土地覆被变化改变土壤呼吸条件,进而对土壤有机碳储量变化产生影响,而土壤有机碳储量则是影响农业可持续发展和全球碳平衡领域的重要因素。以上海市崇明岛为例,运用系统动力学模型(System Dynamics Model)预测2020、2030年土地利用需求变化,结合CLUE-S模型(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small region extent Model)得出各种用地类型的空间分布,并引用碳密度法估算三种发展幕景下土地利用变化对土壤有机碳储量的影响。结果表明:2030年三种发展幕景土壤有机碳储量分别为:低速发展幕景为3 093.03×106kg,惯性发展幕景为3 079.47×106kg,高速发展幕景为3 059.81×106kg;研究期内土壤有机碳储量呈现缓慢下降趋势,但人类活动对其扰动较小;SD和CLUE-S耦合模型可以从时间和空间两方面对土壤有机碳储量进行模拟,具有可行性;建议通过加强城镇用地集约利用、农田保护、林地建设来减少人为活动对土壤有机碳储量的影响。     

Long-term dynamics of terrestrial carbon stocks in Austria: a comprehensive assessment of the time period from 1830 to 2000

This article presents a comprehensive data set on Austria’s terrestrial carbon stocks from the beginnings of industrialization in the year 1830 to the present. It is based on extensive historical and recent land use and forestry data derived from primary sources (cadastral surveys) for the early nineteenth century, official statistics available for later parts of the nineteenth century as well as the twentieth century, and forest inventory data covering the second half of the twentieth century. Total carbon stocks—i.e. aboveground and belowground standing crop and soil organic carbon—are calculated for the entire period and compared to those of potential vegetation. Results suggest that carbon stocks were roughly constant from 1830 to 1880 and have grown considerably from 1880 to 2000, implying that Austria’s vegetation has acted as a carbon sink since the late nineteenth century. Carbon stocks increased by 20% from approximately 1.0 GtC in 1830 and 1880 to approximately 1.2 GtC in the year 2000, a value still much lower than the amount of carbon terrestrial ecosystems are expected to contain in the absence of land use: According to calculations presented in this article, potential vegetation would contain some 2.0 GtC or 162% of the present terrestrial carbon stock, suggesting that the recent carbon sink results from a recovery of biota from intensive use in the past. These findings are in line with the forest transition hypothesis which claims that forest areas are growing in industrialized countries. Growth in forest area and rising carbon stocks per unit area of forests both contribute to the carbon sink. We discuss the hypothesis that the carbon sink is mainly caused by the shift from area-dependent energy sources (biomass) in agrarian societies to the largely area-independent energy system of industrial societies based above all on fossil fuels.     

Land degradation,economic growth and structural change: evidences from Italy

The present study investigates the relationship between land degradation and the evolution of the productive structure in Italy during the last 50 years (1960–2010). The objectives of the study are twofold: (i) to present and discuss an original analysis of the income–environment relationship in an economic-convergent and environmental–divergent country and (ii) to evaluate the impact of the (changing) productive structure and selected socio-demographic characteristics on the level of land vulnerability. The econometric analysis indicates that the relationship between GDP and land degradation across Italian provinces is completely reverted once we move from a cross-sectional analysis to panel estimates. While economic and environmental disparities between provinces go in the same direction, with richer provinces having lower levels of LD, over time the growth process increases LD with the economic structure acting as a significant variable.     

耕地资源变化的空间计量及其驱动力分析——以江苏省为例

采用1998~2008年江苏省13个地级市的耕地数据,分析了近10 a来耕地数量变化的基本过程及空间差异。然后运用Moran I指数验证了耕地资源分布空间相关性的存在,并利用空间计量模型研究了江苏省耕地数量变化的驱动机制。结果表明：（1）1998~2008年,江苏省耕地面积净减少2969×104 hm2,平均每年减少270×104 hm2。耕地数量变化存在明显的空间差异,无锡、苏州、常州、南京和镇江5个地区耕地资源减少最为严重;（2）全省耕地资源空间分布存在明显的空间相关性,1998~2008年,耕地面积Moran I值由0400 3增加至0452 4,呈逐步增强的趋势;（3）人口、经济增长和粮经作物比是江苏省耕地数量变化的主要驱动因子,其弹性系数分别为-0803、-0070、0069;（4）相邻地区各因素的空间扩散效应对耕地数量变化存在显著的影响,其弹性系数为0779,因此,未来在制定耕地保护政策,应考虑区域耕地资源分布的空间相关性,推进跨区域耕地保护机制的形成,建立一体化的区域耕地保护政策。     

Characteristics of Carbon Storage and Density in Different Layers of Forest Ecosystems

Characteristics of carbon storage and density in different layers of forest ecosystems should be studied comprehensively and in more detail. Using forest inventory data in combination with field survey data, we explored the characteristics of carbon storage and density in different layers of forest ecosystems in Liaoning Province of China. Results showed that total carbon storage was 813.034 Tg C. The carbon storage of soil layer accounted for 81.0% of the total storage with 658.783 Tg C, followed by those of arbor, litter and shrub layers with 128.403 Tg C (15.8%), 22.723 Tg C (2.8%) and 3.125 Tg C (0.4%), respectively. The average carbon density for the forest ecosystems were 183.571 Mg C ha^–1, with soil layer (148.744 Mg C ha^–1) being the highest one, followed by arbor layer (28.992 Mg C ha^–1), litter layer (5.131 Mg C ha^–1) and shrub-grass layer (0.706 Mg C ha^–1). Carbon storage in different forest ecosystems varied from 1.595 to 319.161 Tg C, while C density ranged from 165.067 to 235.947Mg C ha^–1, with the highest and lowest values being observed in soil layer and shrub-grass layers, respectively, implying that soil is the main body of forest carbon storage. Young-aged forests accounted for a greater proportion of forests in the Province than forests in other age classes; and proper management of forests could increase the carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystems. The comparison with previous estimations of carbon storage for forest ecosystem implied that methods and data used for forest carbon storage estimation affected the results of estimates obviously.     

A landscape approach for quantifying land-use and land-cover change (1976–2006) in middle Himalaya

With the growth of socio-economic activities, natural land cover is being modified for various development purposes. This has increased the rate of land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC), and thus, affecting the overall ecosystem health. LULCC mapping is an important tool for land management and monitoring. This paper presents LULCC analysis using remotely sensed data integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS). LULCC was quantified using Markov analysis, and the associated probability of change for each class was predicted. Landscape metrics were also used to quantify the spatial and temporal changes in the area. The unique combination of these techniques support the conclusion that with increasing human activities, (1) the deforestation rate has increased, (2) forested areas have become increasingly fragmented, and (3) the forested areas have the highest probability of getting converted to some other land-use and land-cover (LULC) class.     

Benefits and costs of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan,Indonesia, under different policy scenarios

Deforestation and oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan province are among the highest in Indonesia. This study examines the physical and monetary impacts of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan up to 2025 under three policy scenarios. Our modelling approach combines a spatial logistic regression model with a set of rules governing land use change as a function of the policy scenario. Our physical and monetary analyses include palm oil expansion and five other ecosystem services: timber, rattan, paddy rice, carbon sequestration, and orangutan habitat (the last service is analysed in physical units only). In monetary terms, our analysis comprises the contribution of land and ecosystems to economic production, as measured according to the valuation approach of the System of National Accounts. We focus our analysis on government-owned land which covers around 97 % of the province, where the main policy issues are. We show that, in the business-as-usual scenario, the societal costs of carbon emissions and the loss of other ecosystem services far exceed the benefits from increased oil palm production. This is, in particular, related to the conversion of peatlands. We also show that, for Central Kalimantan, the moratorium scenario, which is modelled based on the moratorium currently in place in Indonesia, generates important economic benefits compared to the business-as-usual scenario. In the moratorium scenario, however, there is still conversion of forest to plantation and associated loss of ecosystem services. We developed an alternative, sustainable production scenario based on an ecosystem services approach and show that this policy scenario leads to higher net social benefits including some more space for oil palm expansion.     

基于CLUE-S模型的重庆市渝北区土地利用变化动态模拟

以重庆市渝北区为研究区域,运用CLUE-S模型,结合Logistic回归分析,分别以2007年和2009年为基期,对渝北区2013年土地利用情况进行模拟研究,在此基础上构建了渝北区2013~2020年3种不同情景的土地利用变化模式,模拟了3种情景模式下渝北区在2020年的土地利用空间分布格局。结果表明:(1)两期模拟的正确率分别达到了92.26%和94%,Kappa系数值分别为90.32%和92.5%,均取得了较好的模拟效果,说明CLUE-S模型适用于渝北区的土地利用空间格局变化的模拟研究,具有较好的模拟区域土地利用时空变化的能力;(2)地形、国道、省道、高速公路等主要道路、河流、城镇和村庄是影响渝北区土地利用空间格局变化的重要驱动因素;(3)在3种情景模式中,主要的用地格局变化均发生在两江新区,区内建设用地总体呈现向东北部扩张的趋势,表明区域经济社会发展政策对用地类型的变化具有较大的影响;(4)从促进城乡统筹和谐发展、土地节约集约利用、生态环境显著改善和保护耕地的区域发展目标而言,情景模式2为较为合理的发展模式。研究结果可为决策部门在土地可持续利用和土地管理方面提供参考依据。     

Land-use portfolios and the management of private landholdings in south-central Indiana

In the study of land-use and land-cover change as an important contributor to regional environmental change, linking household level land-use decisions to particular land-cover patterns has been an enduring challenge. The frequent conflation of land use and land cover has been appropriate and fruitful in regions where extractive activities are common, but the decoupling of household characteristics from land-cover choices in exurban landscapes may require that the two be treated separately. This research employs the concept of a land-use portfolio, defined as a unique combination of land use types, and land cover derived from remote sensing to examine the relationship between land use and land cover at the parcel scale. Data on the type and spatial organization of land use were collected for individual parcels through sketch maps constructed by land owners and then described quantitatively using GIS and spatial metrics from landscape ecology. The results of this analysis suggest that in the naturally forested region of south-central Indiana, parcels are frequently managed as multiple types of land use thereby supporting the portfolio approach. Generally, land-management complexity is related to land-cover fragmentation, but the strength of this relationship varies across portfolio types. In addition, substantial amounts of forest land cover occur in non-forest land uses further supporting the need to treat the two separately to accurately link land use intentions and land cover outcomes.     

Constructing regional scenarios for sustainable agriculture in European Russia and Ukraine for 2000 to 2070

This study estimates the consequences of climate change on cropland with and without implementation of adaptation measures, paying special attention to the maintenance of soil organic carbon (C) stocks. We examine the possibility for regional sustainable agricultural management practice that combines both maintenance and gain in soil carbon level with profit maximization. Future scenarios of Regional Agricultural Production Systems (RAPS) were constructed for 2000–2070 based on linking the effects of global climate change, predicted change in productivity parameters for the main agricultural crops, land-use and soil database parameters. The RAPS were used to examine profitability and feasibility of alternative agricultural scenarios, based on an economic model. A number of recommendations for decision making were proposed based on an assessment of the efficiency of adaptation in animal husbandry and in the crop production sector, after analysis of current percentage of perennial grass in rotation in comparison with future economic scenarios. Figures in color are available at