基于状态空间模型的中国粮食产量波动的影响因素研究

粮食丰歉直接影响居民消费与生活质量,而粮食生产受到播种面积、化肥、自然灾害等多种因素的影响。利用逐步回归方法研究发现,在影响粮食生产的10个因素中,播种面积、化肥施用量、自然灾害成灾面积对其生产的影响最大。通过协整检验、误差修正模型分析发现这三种因素与粮食生产之间存在长期与短期关系。状态空间模型表明在不同时期播种面积、化肥施用量、自然灾害成灾面积对其生产的影响存在差异。     

基于灰色预测模型的江苏省粮食灾损量估计

影响粮食产量的因素包括粮食单产和粮食播种面积，自然灾害对这两个因素均有影响。根据灰色预测理论，提出了一个自然灾害粮食损失的评估模型，利用实际粮食产量资料，对江苏省改革开放以来的粮食灾损量进行了估计。结果表明，近30年来江苏省自然灾害粮食灾损明显，粮食灾损率年际间波动较大，农业生产的减灾投入是农业可持续发展的重要保障。     

自然灾害对湖北粮食产量的影响分析

影响粮食产量的因素很多,包括劳动力、粮食播种面积、化肥施用量、机械化水平、自然灾害等。通过描述性统计分析了主要自然灾害对湖北省粮食产量的影响,在此基础上,采用C-D生产函数深入分析了自然灾害对湖北省粮食产量的影响程度,并以此为依据,提出了未来稳定湖北省粮食生产的若干措施。     

综合自然灾害风险管理理论依据探析

自然灾害风险是联合国国际减灾十年之后国际社会灾害风险管理学界研究的重点领域,而对自然灾害风险模型的深入探讨,将进一步加深人们对自然灾害风险影响因素的认识.在国际社会灾害风险管理学界对自然灾害风险模型的认识的基础上,力求对自然灾害风险模型做进一步的诠释,进而从自然灾害风险模型的再认识、人类活动对自然致灾因素的强化以及自然灾害风险的系统结构三个方面,探讨了综合自然灾害风险管理的理论依据,为制定科学的综合自然灾害风险管理战略提供理论参考.     

自然灾害对河北省粮食产量影响的实证分析

利用1985-2010年统计数据,通过灰色关联分析河北省粮食产量的主要影响因素及各种自然灾害对河北省粮食产量的影响。结果表明粮食单位面积产量、有效灌溉面积、粮食播种面积、从事农林牧渔业的劳动人口、受灾面积对河北省1985-2010年粮食产量影响较强,风雹灾受灾未成灾率,粮食风雹灾成灾率、粮食旱灾受灾未成灾率对河北省1985-2010年粮食产量影响较强。提出稳定和提高河北省粮食单产和粮食播种面积,加强农田水利基础设施建设与管理,提高有效灌溉面积,提高抗旱能力,以保证河北省粮食的稳产和增产的建议。     

自然灾害综合监测预警系统建设研究

建设自然灾害监测预警系统是防范灾害风险的重要手段。在综合调研国内外自然灾害监测预警系统建设进展基础上,从我国自然灾害监测预警信息化工程建设现状及国际发展趋势出发,开展系统建设关键要素分析,提出以人为本、协调机制、监测预警技术、信息传播和沟通策略、风险意识、响应能力六大关键要素。基于提升风险分析、综合决策、预警信息发布、指挥调度、应急处置的五大业务能力需求,提出信息技术和应急业务深度融合的建设模式,采用感知网络、基础设施、数据服务、业务支撑、综合应用的分层架构设计,贯穿灾前风险监测、预警、应急响应全过程,构建重大风险全覆盖的多层级自然灾害监测预警体系,以提高风险早期识别、多灾种综合监测、预警预报和应急处置能力,有效防范化解灾害风险。     

地震灾害风险防治的方向及路径

地震灾害风险的内涵和现状五年前的今天,习近平总书记视察唐山市防灾减灾救灾工作,提出了防震减灾工作"两个坚持、三个转变"新理念,强调防震减灾工作重心由震后转变为震前、工作目标由减少损失转变为降低风险、工作手段由单灾种减灾转变为综合减灾,最终实现全面提升全社会抵御自然灾害的综合防范能力的目标,这成为新时期防震减灾工作的根本方针。     

50年来我国自然灾害变化对粮食产量的影响

根据我国近50年的粮食产量统计资料,分析了各个年代主要粮食作物产量与影响和促进粮食产量的因素(耕地资源、化肥施入量、农机动力、农用水资源、自然灾害)之间的关系,结果表明,自然灾害对我国粮食产量的影响极大,要确保我国粮食生产的安全,不仅需要有外部资源及投入,而且在粮食生产过程中要积极进行防灾减灾.     

国家地震烈度速报与预警工程

<正>习近平总书记指示：坚持以防为主,防抗救相结合,坚持常态减灾和非常态救灾相统一,努力实现从注重灾后救助向注重灾前预防转变,从应对单一灾种向综合减灾转变,从减少灾害损失向减轻灾害风险转变,全面提升全社会抵御自然灾害的综合防范能力。     

土地利用变化对农业自然灾害灾情的影响机理(一)──基于实地调查与统计资料的分析

上地利用变化不仅影响区域灾情的结构与类型,还深刻影响其灾情程度．本文以处在北方农牧交错带中段、深受旱灾影响的内蒙古乌兰察布盟为案例,基于统计资料及野外调查,剖析了在气候干旱化程度加剧、农作物成灾面积在波动中增大的趋势下,粮食产量在波动中增长的机理．结果表明,在上地利用中,粮食作物种植结构及其面积比例的调整,增强了粮食生产系统抵御农业自然灾害的能力。因此,调整上地利用结构是一种有效的减灾措施．     

Effects of the 2008 flood on economic performance and food security in Yemen: a simulation analysis

Extreme weather events such as floods and droughts can have devastating consequences for individual well being and economic development, in particular in poor societies with limited availability of coping mechanisms. Combining a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the Yemeni economy with a household‐level calorie consumption simulation model, this paper assesses the economy‐wide, agricultural and food security effects of the 2008 tropical storm and flash flood that hit the Hadramout and Al‐Mahrah governorates. The estimation results suggest that agricultural value added, farm household incomes and rural food security deteriorated long term in the flood‐affected areas. Due to economic spillover effects, significant income losses and increases in food insecurity also occurred in areas that were unaffected by flooding. This finding suggests that while most relief efforts are typically concentrated in directly affected areas, future efforts should also consider surrounding areas and indirectly affected people.     

The impact of drought on production, consumption and nutrition in southwestern kenya

In this paper I compare the effects of the 1984 drought on agricultural production, income, food consumption, and nutrition of farm and non-farm households in South Nyanza District, Kenya. Survey work covered the period 1984 to 1987. It was the late arrival of the long rains in spring 1984, rather than an absolute shortfall in rain, that caused most of the fluctuations in agricultural production. Agricultural households who were least affected by the drought were able to cope by increasing the amount of cultivated land and by relying more on coarse grain production. Coping strategies for the landless households in South Nyanza were more limited and this group of households therefore experienced greater fluctuations in income between the drought and non-drought periods than did most types of agricultural households. Surprisingly, changes in food consumption between the drought and non-drought periods were small for most households. In spite of differences in production, food availability and incomes, however, the health and nutritional status of pre-school-aged children was not significantly different in the two time periods. Differences in health and nutritional status appear to be influenced more by community-level health and sanitation factors than by differences in agricultural production and incomes in drought and non-drought years.     

西北地区沙尘暴引发的荒漠化问题

从西北地区继1993～1995年连续3a出现沙尘暴之后，1996年甘肃和内蒙古西部的阿盟等地再次遭到沙尘暴的袭击入手，分析了沙尘暴发生的原因，指出它归根结底是荒漠化的直接后果。概述了荒漠化的状况及危害，并分析了其成因。     

持续农业,气候变化与有害生物持续治理

21世纪，随着世界人口的增加，首先将面临着对粮食及其它农产品的需求量的增加。要达到粮食稳定和人类的需求量，其制约的因素很多。本文就气候变化、有害生物的持续治理、对持续农业的影响进行了探讨。     

Agricultural and non-agricultural settlements for drought-afflicted pastoralists in Somalia

The severe drought of 1973–1975 in Somalia had major impacts on pastoral populations, many of whom moved into specially established camps where food, water and medical assistance were provided by the government and international agencies. At the end of the drought it was decided to settle the remaining 120,000 people in six settlements, three of which were agricultural and three oriented towards fishing. This paper analyzes these settlements, with particular attention paid to agricultural systems, organization and socioeconomic characteristics. Some of the problems facing the settlements included their location, administrative structure and relative overemphasis on social services as opposed to development of production and income generating activities. It is shown that the socioeconomic viability of settlements would be enhanced if careful studies were undertaken beforehand and if a diversified development strategy were employed.     

Indigenous responses to drought in sub-Saharan Africa*

Drought is a frequent occurrence in contemporary sub-Saharan Africa, and the existence of periodic drought can be documented over hundreds of years. As a consequence of the routine rainfall shortages that affect them, agricultural and pastoral societies have developed a number of social institutions and mechanisms for bridging temporary food production shortfalls caused by drought. Drawing on the literature and field data from southeastern Kenya, this paper discusses a number of regular indigenous responses to short-term drought in sub-Saharan Africa. Changes in these patterns in the present day are also discussed. It is concluded that market-based responses are now the most important strategies, but that traditional institutions remain significant and contribute to the viability of drought-affected societies.     

Hurricanes and agriculture: Losses and remedial actions*

Hurricanes cause serious and long-term damage to the Agricultural sectors of Caribbean countries. Bananas and tree crops are defoliated, snapped or uprooted and food crops may be flooded or washed away. Recovery takes time and money as both the production bases and the infrastructure are damaged or destroyed. National economies do not have the resources to expedite recovery without aid. An account is given of the actions taken to estimate losses and prepare rehabilitation plans after Hurricanes David (1979) in Dominica and Allen (1980) in St. Lucia and St. Vincent. The implementation of funding agency-assisted agricultural rehabilitation programmes is also described. Some steps that farmers can take to reduce loss of food are suggested.     

华北1743-1744年与1876-1878年旱灾中的政府粮食调度与社会后果对比

以《清实录》等清代档案文献为主要历史信息源,挑选华北地区清代盛期(1743-1744年)和晚期(1876-1878年)分别发生的两次典型旱灾,对灾害气候背景和灾情、政府措施(特别是政府主导的跨区粮食调度)、社会后果(人口迁徙和动乱)等信息进行整理并分别对比,可以发现1743-1744年旱灾期间政府的粮食调度体现出粮食数量大、来源渠道广、调度效率高等鲜明特点,并取得了良好的社会效果;而1876-1878年旱灾则反之,粮食数量及来源有限,且转运效率极低,由此引发严重社会后果。这种转变,发生在主要余粮产区农业凋敝、南北粮食运道(大运河)阻断、漕运及仓储制度衰败的时代背景之下,重灾区空间分布带来的交通通达性差异,也在客观上影响了粮食调度的效率。     

Coping strategies developed as a result of social structure and conflict: Kosovo in the 1990s

The end of 1989 brought with it political and economic decisions which resulted in Kosovo being stripped of its autonomy and the Albanian population being expelled from their jobs. These facts combined with ethnic tensions created a decade of conflict and oppression affecting hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians. Thousands of Kosovars moved overseas to seek work to support families at home, altering the way of life of the population of Kosovo irredeemably. The loss of income had serious repercussions on food security throughout the 1990s; possibilities of purchasing food were diminished, control on goods in 1998 reduced availability of foodstuffs, conflict affected accessibility to markets and shops and consequently food intake and nutritional status was compromised. The most vulnerable were those who had no family members overseas. Mass displacement of population due to ethnic cleansing during the war of spring 1999, further jeopardised food security status. Destruction at this time rendered large parts of Kosovo useless and resulted in a shift in the determinant of vulnerability in the post-war period: destruction of houses, land, livestock and agricultural products as well as loss of family members, became a far more pertinent indicator of food insecurity. The strong and clear links between conflict, socio-economic issues and food security are highlighted and discussed in this paper.     

Agriculture and food security in ethiopia

Food security in Ethiopia is discussed in the context of the repeated famines and the international responses both to them and to the socialist agricultural policies being pursued by Ethiopia. Increasing concern has been expressed by the international donor community regarding the ability of Ethiopia to absorb development funds without a major shift in emphasis in agricultural policy-making. The background to Ethiopia's present vulnerability is shown both in terms of the size of the vulnerable population and in terms of the poor performance of the agricultural sector in the last decade. The author looks at the present agricultural and marketing policy reforms and questions whether they are sufficient to generate the sort of international response needed to create the level of food security that would be required to avert future famines.