Integrating Landscape and Metapopulation Modeling Approaches: Viability of the Sharp-Tailed Grouse in a Dynamic Landscape

Abstract:  The lack of management experience at the landscape scale and the limited feasibility of experiments at this scale have increased the use of scenario modeling to analyze the effects of different management actions on focal species. However, current modeling approaches are poorly suited for the analysis of viability in dynamic landscapes. Demographic (e.g., metapopulation) models of species living in these landscapes do not incorporate the variability in spatial patterns of early successional habitats, and landscape models have not been linked to population viability models. We link a landscape model to a metapopulation model and demonstrate the use of this model by analyzing the effect of forest management options on the viability of the Sharp-tailed Grouse (  Tympanuchus phasianellus ) in the Pine Barrens region of northwestern Wisconsin (U.S.A.). This approach allows viability analysis based on landscape dynamics brought about by processes such as succession, disturbances, and silviculture. The landscape component of the model (LANDIS) predicts forest landscape dynamics in the form of a time series of raster maps. We combined these maps into a time series of patch structures, which formed the dynamic spatial structure of the metapopulation component (RAMAS). Our results showed that the viability of Sharp-tailed Grouse was sensitive to landscape dynamics and demographic variables such as fecundity and mortality. Ignoring the landscape dynamics gave overly optimistic results, and results based only on landscape dynamics (ignoring demography) lead to a different ranking of the management options than the ranking based on the more realistic model incorporating both landscape and demographic dynamics. Thus, models of species in dynamic landscapes must consider habitat and population dynamics simultaneously.     

Four Factors Modifying the Effect of Competition on Carnivore Population Dynamics as Illustrated by African Wild Dogs

Abstract: Limitation of predator populations by prey availability and the effects of predators on prey populations are widely recognized as important ecological processes that affect carnivore conservation. Interspecific competition can also be a strong limiting factor for carnivore populations, and the effects of competition help explain why some carnivore species are prone to extinction. Competition among carnivores is unusual in some ways, so some predictions from traditional models of competition do not hold. For example, an increase in the density of prey can increase the effect of competition among carnivores, rather than weakening it. I used published data from African wild dogs (    Lycaon pictus ) to highlight four complexities that can modify the effects of competition on the population dynamics of carnivores: habitat fragmentation, counterintuitive effects of prey density, predator-prey size ratios, and habitat type.     

Predicting Human-Carnivore Conflict: a Spatial Model Derived from 25 Years of Data on Wolf Predation on Livestock

Abstract:  Many carnivore populations escaped extinction during the twentieth century as a result of legal protections, habitat restoration, and changes in public attitudes. However, encounters between carnivores, livestock, and humans are increasing in some areas, raising concerns about the costs of carnivore conservation. We present a method to predict sites of human-carnivore conflicts regionally, using as an example the mixed forest-agriculture landscapes of Wisconsin and Minnesota (U.S.A.). We used a matched-pair analysis of 17 landscape variables in a geographic information system to discriminate affected areas from unaffected areas at two spatial scales (townships and farms). Wolves ( Canis lupus ) selectively preyed on livestock in townships with high proportions of pasture and high densities of deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) combined with low proportions of crop lands, coniferous forest, herbaceous wetlands, and open water. These variables plus road density and farm size also appeared to predict risk for individual farms when we considered Minnesota alone. In Wisconsin only, farm size, crop lands, and road density were associated with the risk of wolf attack on livestock. At the level of townships, we generated two state-wide maps to predict the extent and location of future predation on livestock. Our approach can be applied wherever spatial data are available on sites of conflict between wildlife and humans.     

Designing a Conservation Landscape for Tigers in Human-Dominated Environments

Abstract:  Wildlife populations in small, isolated reserves face genetic and demographic threats to their survival. To increase the probability of long-term persistence, biologists promote metapopulation management, in which breeding subpopulations are protected as source pools. Animals that disperse from the source pools increase the probability of persistence of the metapopulation across the greater landscape. We used a geographic information system (GIS)–based, cost-distance model to design a conservation landscape along the Himalayan foothills for managing a metapopulation of Asia's largest predator, the tiger ( Panthera tigris ). The model is based on data from 30 years of field research on tigers, recent satellite imagery, and a decade of buffer-zone restoration in this region. We used the model to (1) identify potential dispersal corridors for tigers; (2) identify strategic transit refuges; and (3) make recommendations for off-reserve land management and restoration to enhance the potential of corridors for tigers. This tool can aid the design of conservation landscapes for other endangered, wide-ranging species in human-dominated environments.     

Avifaunal Use of Wooded Streets in an Urban Landscape

Abstract: Birds in urban landscapes primarily occupy parks (  forest fragments), wooded streets ( linear strips connecting fragments), or the urban matrix. I studied the effects of street location in the landscape, vegetation structure, and human disturbance ( pedestrian and automobile load) within wooded streets on bird species richness, temporal persistence, and density of feeding and nesting guilds, and on the probability of street occupation by individual species in Madrid during two consecutive breeding seasons. The number of species recorded increased from the least suitable (control streets without vegetation) to the most suitable habitats (urban parks), with wooded streets being intermediate landscape elements. Fourteen species, belonging to four of the eight guilds identified in this system, were recorded in wooded streets in both years. Streets that connected urban parks, along with vegetation structure, positively influenced the number of species within wooded streets, species persistence, guild density, and probability of occupation of streets by individual species. Human disturbance exerted a negative influence on the same variables. Wooded streets potentially could function as corridors, allowing certain species—particularly those feeding on the ground and breeding in trees or tree holes—to fare well by supporting alternative habitat for feeding and nesting. Local improvements in corridor quality, through increased vegetation complexity and reduced human disturbance, could exert a positive influence on the regional connectivity of the system. Because of differential use of corridors by species with different habitat requirements, however, corridor implementation should also take into account the target species of management.     

Use of an Action‐Selection Framework for Human‐Carnivore Conflict in the Bangladesh Sundarbans

Abstract: Human–carnivore conflict is manifested in the death of humans, livestock, and carnivores. The resulting negative local attitudes and retribution killings imperil the future of many endangered carnivores. We tailored existing management tools to create a framework to facilitate the selection of actions to alleviate human–carnivore conflict and applied the framework to the human–tiger conflict in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. We identified potential actions that consider previous management efforts, local knowledge, cost‐effectiveness, fieldwork experience of authors and project staff, previous research on tiger ecology by the authors, and recommendations from human–carnivore conflict studies in other countries. Our framework includes creation of a profile to improve understanding of the nature of the conflict and its underlying causality. Identified actions include deterrents, education, direct tiger management, and response teams. We ranked actions by their potential to reduce conflict and the monetary cost of their implementation. We ranked tiger‐response teams and monitoring problem tigers as the two best actions because both had relatively high impact and cost‐effectiveness. We believe this framework could be used under a wide range of human–wildlife conflict situations because it provides a structured approach to selection of mitigating actions.     

Simulating Historical Variability in the Amount of Old Forests in the Oregon Coast Range

Abstract: We developed the landscape age-class demographics simulator ( LADS) to model historical variability in the amount of old-growth and late-successional forest in the Oregon Coast Range over the past 3,000 years. The model simulated temporal and spatial patterns of forest fires along with the resulting fluctuations in the distribution of forest age classes across the landscape. Parameters describing historical fire regimes were derived from data from a number of existing dendroecological and paleoecological studies. Our results indicated that the historical age-class distribution was highly variable and that variability increased with decreasing landscape size. Simulated old-growth percentages were generally between 25% and 75% at the province scale (2,250,000 ha) and never fell below 5%. In comparison, old-growth percentages varied from 0 to 100% at the late-successional reserve scale (40,000 ha). Province-scale estimates of current old-growth (5%) and late-successional forest (11%) in the Oregon Coast Range were lower than expected under the simulated historical fire regime, even when potential errors in our parameter estimates were considered. These uncertainties do, however, limit our ability to precisely define ranges of historical variability. Our results suggest that in areas where historical disturbance regimes were characterized by large, infrequent fires, management of forest age classes based on a range of historical variability may be feasible only at relatively large spatial scales. Comprehensive landscape management strategies will need to consider other factors besides the percentage of old forests on the landscape, including the spatial pattern of stands and the rates and pathways of landscape change.     

Virtual Corridors for Conservation Management

Abstract:  Corridors are usually perceived as clearly visible, linear landscape elements embedded in a hostile environment that connect two or more larger blocks of habitat. Animal response to certain aspects of landscape heterogeneity, however, can channel their movements into specific routes that may appear similar to their surroundings. These routes can be described as "virtual corridors" (VCs). Here we contribute to the foundation of the concept of VCs and highlight their implications for conservation management. We used an individual-based model to analyze the formation of VCs in the case of hilltopping in butterflies—where males and virgin females ascend to hilltops and mate. We simulated butterfly movements in two different topographically heterogeneous landscapes. We analyzed the movement patterns with respect to one parameter, the intensity of response to topography. Virtual corridor structure depended on the behavioral parameter, landscape, and location of the source patch. Within a realistic range of the behavioral parameter and in a realistic landscape, VC structures may be complex and require individual-based models for their elucidation.     

Law and Large Carnivore Conservation in the Rocky Mountains of the U.S. and Canada

The law governing large carnivores in the western U.S. and western Canada abounds in jurisdictional complexity. In the U.S., different federal and state laws govern large carnivore conservation efforts; species listed under the Endangered Species Act are generally protected, whereas those subject to state regulation can be hunted, trapped, or otherwise taken. Neither federal nor state environmental or land management laws specifically protect large carnivores, though these laws can be used to protect habitat. A similar situation prevails in Canada. Canadian federal law does not address large carnivore conservation, although the national parks provide some secure habitat. Provincial laws vary widely; none of these laws specifically protect large carnivores, but some provisions can be invoked to protect habitat. Although the two nations have not entered any bilateral treaties to protect large carnivores, several species receive limited protection under multilateral treaty obligations. Despite these jurisdictional complexities, the existing legal framework can be built upon to promote large carnivore conservation efforts, primarily through a legally protected reserve system. Whether the political will exists to utilize fully the available legal authorities remains to be seen.     

Simple Spatial Modeling Tool for Prioritizing Prescribed Burning Activities at the Landscape Scale

Abstract:   Resources for prescribed fire are frequently insufficient to manage public lands for all conservation and resource management objectives, necessitating prioritization of the application of fire across the landscape within any given year. Defining tradeoffs when applying prescribed fire to large landscapes is problematic not only because of the complexity of weighing competing management objectives at the landscape scale, but also because of the difficult nature of independently applying need-to-burn criteria to large areas. We present a case study of a simple modeling process implemented at Eglin Air Force Base in the Florida Panhandle (U.S.A.) to prioritize the application of prescribed fire. In a workshop setting, managers and biologists identified key conservation criteria and landscape management objectives that drive the application of prescribed fire. Remote sensing and other spatial data were developed to directly or indirectly represent all these criteria. Using geographic information system software, managers and biologists weighted each criterion according to its relative contribution to overall burn prioritization, and individual values for the criterion were scored according to how they influence the need to burn. Subsequently, this process has been validated and modified through ecological monitoring. This modeling process has also been applied to the 77,400-ha Blackwater River State Forest, public land adjacent to Eglin Air Force Base, demonstrating its applicability to lands with varying management priorities. The advantages of this model-based approach for prioritizing prescribed fire include the reliance on accessible, inexpensive software, the development of spatially explicit management objectives, the ease of transferability, and clearly stated assumptions about management that may be tested and reviewed through monitoring and public comment.     

The Application of Neutral Landscape Models in Conservation Biology

Neutral landscape models, derived from percolation theory in the field of landscape ecology, are grid-based maps in which complex habitat distributions are generated by random or fractal algorithms. This grid-based representation of landscape structure is compatible with the raster-based format of geographical information systems (GIS), which facilitates comparisons between theoretical and real landscapes. Neutral landscape models permit the identification of critical thresholds in connectivity, which can be used to predict when landscapes will become fragmented. The coupling of neutral landscape models with generalized population models, such as metapopulation theory, provides a null model for generating predictions about population dynamics in fragmented landscapes. Neutral landscape models can contribute to the following applications in conservation: (1) incorporation of complex spatial patterns in (meta)population models; (2) identification of species' perceptions of landscape structure; (3) determination of landscape connectivity; (4) evaluation of the consequences of habitat fragmentation for population subdivision; (5) identification of the domain of metapopulation dynamics; (6) prediction of the occurrence of extinction thresholds; ( 7) determination of the genetic consequences of habitat fragmentation; and (8) reserve design and ecosystem management. This generalized, spatially explicit framework bridges the gap between spatially implicit, patch-based models and spatially realistic GIS applications which are usually parameterized for a single species in a specific landscape. Development of a generalized, spatially explicit framework is essential in conservation biology because we will not be able to develop individual models for every species of management concern.     

The Conservation Relevance of Epidemiological Research into Carnivore Viral Diseases in the Serengeti

Abstract:  Recent outbreaks of rabies and canine distemper in wildlife populations of the Serengeti show that infectious disease constitutes a significant cause of mortality that can result in regional extirpation of endangered species even within large, well-protected areas. Nevertheless, effective management of an infectious disease depends critically on understanding the epidemiological dynamics of the causative pathogen. Pathogens with short infection cycles cannot persist in small populations in the absence of a more permanent reservoir of infection. Development of appropriate interventions requires detailed data on transmission pathways between reservoirs and wildlife populations of conservation concern. Relevant data can be derived from long-term population monitoring, epidemic and case-surveillance patterns, genetic analyses of rapidly evolving pathogens, serological surveys, and intervention studies. We examined studies of carnivore diseases in the Serengeti. Epidemiological research contributes to wildlife conservation policy in terms of management of endangered populations and the integration of wildlife conservation with public health interventions. Long-term, integrative, cross-species research is essential for formulation of effective policy for disease control and optimization of ecosystem health.     

Identifying a Linked Reserve System Using a Regional Landscape Approach: the Florida Ecological Network

Abstract: We completed an analysis of potential ecological connectivity to identify areas with priority conservation significance and landscape linkages as part of a state of Florida program called Greenways. This is the latest step in the state's design and protection of a reserve system based on an aggressive land acquisition program. We used geographic information systems software (Arc-Info) to develop a decision support model that uses land-use data and information on significant ecological areas—including important habitats for target species, priority ecological communities, wetlands, roadless areas, floodplains, and important aquatic systems—to identify larger areas of ecological priority and potential ecological linkages. The result of this process, the Florida Ecological Network, includes approximately half the state's area, with over half of this network already in conservation lands or public-domain water. This network could provide a linked statewide reserve system containing most of each major ecological community and most known occurrences of rare species. Although the ecological network represents significant progress toward a more integrated approach to biodiversity conservation in Florida, further analysis is needed to (1) ensure that the needs of wide-ranging species, such as the Florida panther (   Puma concolor coryi ) and Florida black bear (   Ursus americanus floridanus ), are addressed; (2) identify other biodiversity elements not well represented; and (3) designate a system of cores and buffers that will address management issues. Reserve design is an iterative process, and future plans need to address new information, including the results of the Florida GAP analysis project and ongoing habitat loss.     

Limiting Depredation by African Carnivores: the Role of Livestock Husbandry

Abstract:   Most large carnivore species are in global decline. Conflict with local people, particularly over depredation on livestock, is a major cause of this decline, affecting both nominally protected populations and those outside protected areas. For this reason, techniques that can resolve conflicts between large carnivores and livestock farmers may make important contributions to conservation. We monitored rates of livestock depredation by lions (  Panthera leo ), leopards ( Panthera pardus ), cheetahs ( Acinonyx jubatus ), and spotted hyenas ( Crocuta crocuta ), and retributive killing of these species by farmers in livestock-producing areas of Laikipia District, Kenya. Farmers killed more lions, leopards, and spotted hyenas where these predators killed more livestock. Livestock husbandry had a clear effect on rates of depredation and hence on the numbers of predators killed. Cattle, sheep, and goats experienced the lowest predation rates when attentively herded by day and enclosed in traditional corrals (bomas) by night. Construction of the boma, the presence of watchdogs, and high levels of human activity around the boma were all associated with lower losses to predators. Although most of this work was carried out on commercial ranches, local Maasai and Samburu pastoralists have practiced nearly identical forms of husbandry for generations. Our study shows that traditional, low-tech husbandry approaches can make an important contribution to the conservation of large carnivores.     

Landscape evaluation in conservation: molecular sampling and habitat modeling for the Iberian lynx.

Conservation of endangered species requires comprehensive understanding of their distribution and habitat requirements, in order to implement better management strategies. Unfortunately, this understanding is often difficult to gather at the short term required by rapidly declining populations of many rare vertebrates. We present a spatial habitat modeling approach that integrates a molecular technique for species detection with landscape information to assess habitat requirements of a critically endangered mammalian carnivore, the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus), in a poorly known population in Spain. We formulated a set of model hypotheses for habitat selection at the spatial scale of home ranges, based on previous information on lynx requirements of space, vegetation, and prey. To obtain the required data for model selection, we designed a sampling protocol based on surveys of feces and their molecular analysis for species identification. After comparing candidate models, we selected a parsimonious one that allowed (1) reliable assessment of lynx habitat requirements at the scale of home ranges, (2) prediction of lynx distribution and potential population size, and (3) identification of landscape management priorities for habitat conservation. This model predicted that the species was more likely to occur in landscapes with a higher percentage of rocky areas and higher cover of bushes typical of mature mediterranean shrubland mosaics. Its accuracy for discriminating lynx presence was approximately 85%, indicating high predictive performance. Mapping model predictions showed that only 16% of the studied areas constitute potential habitat for lynx, even though the region is dominated by large extents of well-preserved native vegetation with low human interference. Habitat was mostly clumped in two nearby patches connected by vegetation adequate for lynx dispersal and had a capacity for 28-62 potential breeding territories. The lynx population in Sierra Morena is probably the largest persisting today, but it is still critically small for optimism about its long-term persistence. Model results suggest habitat conservation and restoration actions needed for preserving the species, including reconciliation of hunting management with preservation of mature shrubland over large areas (particularly in rocky landscapes). The approach presented here can be applied to many other species for which the ecological information needed to develop sound habitat conservation strategies is lacking.     

Thresholds in Songbird Occurrence in Relation to Landscape Structure

Abstract:  Theory predicts the occurrence of threshold levels of habitat in landscapes, below which ecological processes change abruptly. Simulation models indicate that below critical thresholds, fragmentation of habitat influences patch occupancy by decreasing colonization rates and increasing rates of local extinction. Uncovering such putative relationships is important for understanding the demography of species and in developing sound conservation strategies. Using segmented logistic regression, we tested for thresholds in occurrence of 15 bird species as a function of the amount of suitable habitat at multiple scales (150–2000-m radii). Suitable habitat was defined quantitatively based on previously derived, spatially explicit distribution models for each species. The occurrence of 10 out of 15 species was influenced by the amount of habitat at a landscape scale (≥500-m radius). Of these species all but one were best predicted by threshold models. Six out of nine species exhibited asymptotic thresholds; the effects of habitat loss intensified at low amounts of habitat in a landscape. Landscape thresholds ranged from 8.6% habitat to 28.7% (     = 18.5 ± 2.6%[95% CI]). For two species landscape thresholds coincided with sensitivity to fragmentation; both species were more likely to occur in large patches, but only when the amount of habitat in a landscape was low. This supports the fragmentation threshold hypothesis. Nevertheless, the occurrence of most species appeared to be unaffected by fragmentation, regardless of the amount of habitat present at landscape extents. The thresholds we identified may be useful to managers in establishing conservation targets. Our results indicate that findings of landscape-scale studies conducted in regions with relatively high proportions of habitat and low fragmentation may not be applicable in regions with low habitat proportions and high fragmentation.     

Bush Tucker, Bush Pets, and Bush Threats: Cooperative Management of Feral Animals in Australia's Kakadu National Park

Abstract:  Although feral animal management is often based on the proposition that introduced species threaten ecological and conservation values, that view is not necessarily shared by all stakeholders, including those indigenous people who own and co-manage Kakadu National Park with Australia's federal government. Drawing on field-based interviews with the Jawoyn people, we found that these indigenous people categorize water buffalo (  Bubalus bubalis ) as an important food source (tucker), view horses (  Equus caballus ) as bush pets, and consider pigs (  Sus scrofa ) a threat to their lands. As a result, Jawoyn people want more water buffalo in the park, have high tolerance of environmental damage caused by horses, and are open to the idea that pig population densities should be reduced. Jawoyn also advocate an adaptive and participatory approach to feral animal control so that the consequences of any management actions can be properly understood before irrevocable change occurs. These findings highlight one example of how indigenous people's ecological knowledge has adapted in response to changing landscapes and community aspirations. Co-management strategies that aim to incorporate the dynamics of indigenous people's views need to start with issues on which there is agreement between different groups and take a cautious approach to joint exploration of more contentious issues. That approach should include ongoing and on-site monitoring so that the consequences of management actions can be properly understood and comprehensively negotiated by all parties.     

Multimethod,multistate Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach for use in regional monitoring of wolves

In many cases, the first step in large‐carnivore management is to obtain objective, reliable, and cost‐effective estimates of population parameters through procedures that are reproducible over time. However, monitoring predators over large areas is difficult, and the data have a high level of uncertainty. We devised a practical multimethod and multistate modeling approach based on Bayesian hierarchical‐site‐occupancy models that combined multiple survey methods to estimate different population states for use in monitoring large predators at a regional scale. We used wolves (Canis lupus) as our model species and generated reliable estimates of the number of sites with wolf reproduction (presence of pups). We used 2 wolf data sets from Spain (Western Galicia in 2013 and Asturias in 2004) to test the approach. Based on howling surveys, the naïve estimation (i.e., estimate based only on observations) of the number of sites with reproduction was 9 and 25 sites in Western Galicia and Asturias, respectively. Our model showed 33.4 (SD 9.6) and 34.4 (3.9) sites with wolf reproduction, respectively. The number of occupied sites with wolf reproduction was 0.67 (SD 0.19) and 0.76 (0.11), respectively. This approach can be used to design more cost‐effective monitoring programs (i.e., to define the sampling effort needed per site). Our approach should inspire well‐coordinated surveys across multiple administrative borders and populations and lead to improved decision making for management of large carnivores on a landscape level. The use of this Bayesian framework provides a simple way to visualize the degree of uncertainty around population‐parameter estimates and thus provides managers and stakeholders an intuitive approach to interpreting monitoring results. Our approach can be widely applied to large spatial scales in wildlife monitoring where detection probabilities differ between population states and where several methods are being used to estimate different population parameters.     

Patterns of Predation Risk and Survival of Bird Nests in a Chilean Agricultural Landscape

Abstract: We used experimental nests baited with California Quail (  Callipepla californica ) eggs or clay eggs to examine relative risks of nest predation in an agricultural landscape and in two large forest preserves in a south-temperate rainforest in Chile. The most common predators, as identified by marks on clay eggs, were a caracara (   Milvago chimango ), a blackbird ( Curaeus curaeus ), and rodents. Nest losses from predation were similar in large and small forest patches and lower in patches than in extensive forest. In general, predation risk was higher (and nest survival therefore lower) on forest edges than in forest interior, in short-grass pasture than in tall-grass pasture, in narrow corridors than in wide corridors, and on visible nests than on concealed nests. High predation risks in pasture habitat tended to increase the risk of nest predation in adjacent forest edges. For open-cup nesters, the risk of nest predation was relatively high in the present agricultural landscape, indicating that much of the available wooded habitat (  forest edges, narrow corridors) offers poor nesting habitat, although it may be suitable for foraging and traveling. The numerous bird-plant mutualisms in this landscape may be at risk if nesting success of the principal mutualists is consistently low.