Large eddy simulation of methane–air deflagration in an obstructed chamber using different combustion models

In this paper, simulations of methane–air deflagration inside a semi-confined chamber with three solid obstacles have been carried out with large eddy simulation (LES) technique. Three sub-grid scale (SGS) combustion models, including power-law flame wrinkling model by Charlette et al., turbulent flame speed closure (TFC) model, and eddy dissipation model (EDM), are applied. All numerical results have been compared to literature experimental data. It is found that the power-law flame wrinkling model by Charlette et al. is able to better predict the generated pressure and other flame features, such as flame structure, position, speed and acceleration against measured data. Based on the power-law flame wrinkling model, the flame–vortex interaction during the deflagration progress is also investigated. The results obtained have demonstrated that higher turbulence levels, induced by obstacles, wrinkle the flame and then increase its surface area, the burning rates and the flame speed.     

An approach for domino effect reduction based on optimal layouts

An approach to reduce the probability of producing a domino effect in process industry is developed in this work. It is assumed that optimal layouts should include appropriate analysis to reduce risk during the process design stage. The model developed for this approach combines the estimation of probability of damage due to overpressure, proposed by Mingguang and Juncheng (2008), and escalation threshold values defined by Cozzani, Gubinelli, and Salzano (2006). These equations are combined with other typical layout constraints as well as bounding the probability constraint, which has resulted in a highly non-linear MINLP problem. Solving a case study used by other authors provides evidence for reliability of the developed approach. In this way, layouts are designed to reduce the escalation probability yielding safe distributions.     

Optimization of dilution ventilation layout design in confined environments using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD)

Dilution ventilation systems have been widely used to control the airborne toxic and explosive material in confined spaces. Layout design of dilution ventilation is critical to industrial hygiene control and ventilation efficiency. A properly designed dilution ventilation system can significantly improve the safety of confined workshops and maintain a comfortable work condition. In this work, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has been used to analyze the performance of dilution ventilation system in the confined workshop environment. Seven different ventilation layouts are proposed to evaluate ventilation performance of different installation layouts. Carbon monoxide (CO), which has the similar density as air, is selected as the sample contaminant to conduct steady-state CFD simulations. The simulation results of different layouts are examined and compared to get the optimal layout design for the best contaminant control. Results have shown that the layout with two opposite inlets has the highest ventilation efficiency among seven proposed layouts. This work can serve as a reference to increase dilution ventilation efficiency and minimize the energy cost in general confined areas.     

An approach for risk reduction (methodology) based on optimizing the facility layout and siting in toxic gas release scenarios

In this work, a new approach to optimize facility layout for toxic release is presented. By integrating a risk analysis in the optimization formulation, we propose a safer assignment for facility layout and siting. Accompanying with the economical concepts used in a plant layout, the new model considers the cost of willing to avoid a fatality, i.e. the potential injury cost due to accidents associated with toxic release near residential areas. The proposed formulation incorporates a real meteorological data to calculate the injury risk through the probit model and Monte Carlo simulation using dense gas dispersion modeling (DEGADIS). The overall problem was initially modeled as a disjunctive program where the coordinates of each facility and cost-related variables are the main unknowns. Then, the convex hull approach was used to reformulate the problem as a Mixed Integer Non-Linear Program (MINLP) that identifies potential layouts by minimizing overall costs. This approach gives the coordinates of each facility, and estimates for the total length of pipes, the land area, and the selection of safety devices. Finally, the 3D-computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was used to compare between the initial layout and the final layout. Moreover, analyses of separation distances fr2om hazard facilities and hindrance effects will be discussed based on the approach used in this work.     

Improved far-field blast predictions from fast deflagrations,DDTs and detonations of vapour clouds using FLACS CFD

The CFD tool FLACS was developed from 1982 with a primary goal to predict gas explosion loads inside oil platform modules. The prediction of far-field blast loads was of secondary importance as any scenario creating a substantial far-field blast would already have collapsed the module where it originated. For the same reason the potential for a deflagration-to-detonation-transition (DDT) was not initially of interest. Over the past decade use of FLACS has been more widespread, and the tool is now frequently used to predict explosions on onshore facilities and FPSOs/FLNGs, where far-field blast loads and evaluation of DDT potential may be of significant interest. Previous work by Hansen et al. (2010) has highlighted a weakness in FLACS when predicting the far-field blast from strong gas explosions and, when using FLACS according to guidelines, far-field blast pressures will often be significantly underpredicted. For scenarios involving DDT this effect will be particularly strong. The current study will present a way to obtain more accurate far-field blast predictions by modified parameter settings in FLACS for strong deflagrations. Using modified settings, it is also possible, with good precision, to predict flame speeds, pressures and far-field blast from DDT-scenarios and directly initiated gas detonations, physics which are beyond the accepted capabilities of FLACS. Selected full-scale experiments from the DNV GL test site at Spadeadam will be used to compare with the simulations. Convincing evidence for DDT in large scale natural gas experiments (91% methane) was found in simulations of one of these tests.     

Validation of a new formula for predicting the lower flammability limit of hybrid mixtures

A correlation of the lower flammability limit for hybrid mixtures was recently proposed by us. The experimental conditions including ignition energy and turbulence which play a primary role in a gas or dust explosion were at fixed values. The sensitivity of such experimental conditions to the accuracy of the proposed formula was not thoroughly discussed in the previous work. Therefore, this work studied the effect of varying the ignition energy and turbulence intensity to the formula proposed in our previous paper. For ignition energy effect, results from methane/niacin mixture demonstrated that the MEC and LFL will not be affected by changing ignition energy. There is no distinguishable difference among gas explosion index (K_G) and dust explosion index (K_St) derived from tests with every ignition energy (2.5 kJ, 5 kJ and 10 kJ) in a 36 L vessel. The proposed formula is independent of ignition energy. For turbulence effect, the proposed formula can have a good prediction of the explosion and non-explosion zone if the ignition delay time is within a certain range. The formula prediction is good as the ignition delay time increases up to 100 ms in this work. Propane/niacin and propane/cornstarch mixtures are also tested to validate the proposed formula. It has been confirmed that the proposed formula predicts the explosion and non-explosion zone boundary of such mixtures.     

Effects of vent layout and vent area on dynamic characteristics of premixed methane-air explosion in a tube with two side-vented ducts

To further elucidate the influence mechanism of side vents on the dynamic characteristics of gas explosions in tubes is helpful to design more reasonable vent layouts. In this paper, 9.5% methane-air explosion experiments were conducted in a tube with two side-vented ducts, and the effects of vent layouts and vent areas on the dynamic characteristics of explosion overpressure and flame propagation speed were investigated. The results demonstrate that under the same condition with a single vent area of 100 mm × 100 mm, when only the end vent is open, the maximum explosion overpressure and the maximum flame propagation speed are the highest among the five vent layouts. When the side vents 1 and 2 and the end vent are open, the maximum explosion overpressure is the lowest, and an unusual discovery is that the flame front changes into a hemispherical shape, finger shape, quasi-plane shape, tulip shape and wrinkled structure. When only side vent 1 is open, a unique Helmholtz oscillation occurs, and a new discovery is that there is a consistent oscillation relationship among the overpressure, flame propagation speed and flame structure. Helmholtz oscillation occurs only when a single vent area is 100 mm × 100 mm–60 mm × 60 mm, and the oscillation degree decreases with decreasing vent area. During the vent failure stage, the maximum explosion overpressure is generated, the flame front begins to appear irregular shape, and the flame propagation speed shows a prominent characteristic peak. After the vent failure stage, the driving effect of the end vent on the flame is higher than that of the side vent on the flame. Furthermore, the correlation equations of the mathematical relationships among the maximum explosion overpressure P_red, the static activation pressure P_stat and the vent coefficient K_v under four vent layouts are established, respectively.     

The effects of personal music devices on pedestrian behaviour

It has been suggested that pedestrians listening to personal music devices (PMD) are more likely to be involved in accidents than those not listening to PMDs. Though it has been demonstrated that pedestrians on cell phones exhibit less cautionary behaviour when street crossing ( [Hatfield and Murphy, 2007], [Nasar et al., 2008] and [Stavrinos et al., 2009]), little research has been conducted with PMD users. In the present study, cautionary behaviour (e.g., looking before crossing a road) was observed and recorded for pedestrians with or without PMDs. Amongst males, pedestrians listening to PMDs displayed more looking behaviour than those not listening to PMDs. Females showed no differences between the two conditions. Thus, unlike cell phones, PMDs do not decrease the cautionary behaviour of pedestrians. This suggests that cell phones and PMDs are two different types of distractions, and this needs to be taken into account when developing methods to prevent pedestrian accidents in the future.     

通道中障碍物布局对行人运动影响的多格子模型研究

传统行人疏散运动模型对障碍物环境下的个体运动行为关注不足,而且未较好地讨论不同障碍物布局下的行人运动特性。通过改进多格子模型建立了考虑障碍物布局影响的行人运动模型,并与实验结果对比验证了该模型的有效性。利用该模型对不同障碍物布局下的单、双行人流进行模拟,探究不同障碍物布局对行人运动的影响。模拟结果表明,合理的障碍物布局有助于提高行人流的运动速度。丰富了传统多格子模型在障碍物环境下的运动规则,能够为行人交通设施设计及科学管理提供理论与技术支持。     

Correlations for blast effects from vented dust explosions

Empirical correlations are often used to estimate safety distances in the event of dust explosions. In Europe, there are two main correlations available in VDI 3673 and EN 14491. Whereas the VDI 3673 correlation is based on experimental investigations of vented dust explosions using large vessels, and assumes an external explosion, the EN 14491 correlation is derived from SKJELTORP et al. internal explosion tests in ammunition storage facility. This paper provides an overview of the experimental studies of vented gas and dust explosion. It aims to highlight the main findings of such studies, while defining the conditions for a secondary explosion to occur and comparing experimental data with the application of standards, in order to propose elements to choose the more appropriate correlation.     

Work-related driving safety in light vehicle fleets: A review of past research and the development of an intervention framework

This paper presents a critical review of past research in the work-related driving field in light vehicle fleets (e.g., vehicles < 4.5 tonnes) and an intervention framework that provides future direction for practitioners and researchers. Although work-related driving crashes have become the most common cause of death, injury, and absence from work in Australia and overseas, very limited research has progressed in establishing effective strategies to improve safety outcomes. In particular, the majority of past research has been data-driven, and therefore, limited attention has been given to theoretical development in establishing the behavioural mechanism underlying driving behaviour. As such, this paper argues that to move forward in the field of work-related driving safety, practitioners and researchers need to gain a better understanding of the individual and organisational factors influencing safety through adopting relevant theoretical frameworks, which in turn will inform the development of specifically targeted theory-driven interventions. This paper presents an intervention framework that is based on relevant theoretical frameworks and sound methodological design, incorporating interventions that can be directed at the appropriate level, individual and driving target group.     

Investigation of key factors for accident severity at railroad grade crossings by using a logit model

Although several studies have used logit or probit models and their variants to fit data of accident severity on roadway segments, few have investigated accident severity at a railroad grade crossing (RGC). Compared to accident risk analysis in terms of accident frequency and severity of a highway system, investigation of the factors contributing to traffic accidents at an RGC may be more complicated because of additional highway–railway interactions. Because the proportional odds assumption was violated while fitting cumulative logit modeled by the proportional odds models with stepwise variable selection to ordinal accident severity data collected at 592 RGCs in Taiwan as suggested by Strokes et al. [Strokes, M.E., Davis, C.S., Koch, G.G., 2000. Categorical Data Analysis Using the SAS System, second ed. SAS Institute, Inc., Cary, NC, p. 249], a generalized logit model with stepwise variable selection was used instead to identify explanatory variables (factors or covariates) that were significantly associated with the severity of collisions. Hence, the fitted model was used to predict the level of accident severity, given a set of values in the explanatory variables. Number of daily trains, highway separation, number of daily trucks, obstacle detection device, and approaching crossing markings significantly affected levels of accident severity at an RGC (p-value = 0.0009, 0.0008, 0.0112, 0.0017, and 0.0003, respectively). Finally, marginal effect analysis on the number of daily trains and law enforcement camera was conducted to evaluate the effect of the number of daily trains and presence of a law enforcement camera on the potential accident severity.     

Development of novel combustion risk index for flammable liquids based on unsupervised clustering algorithms

Current liquid flammability classification mainly relies on flash point and its risk is largely dependent on consequence and probability. However, combustions of liquefied marine fuels have their uniqueness, leading to a less consistent with the common classification. This work aims at classifying flammable liquids in compression ignition engines for further safety evaluation. Besides liquid flammability characteristics, flame propagation and aerosol formulation are considered. Two unsupervised machine learning clustering algorithms, k-means and spectral clustering, are applied to the collected liquid compounds database. To consider both cluster cohesion and separation, the global mean silhouette value is used to find the optimal number of clusters and to evaluate the clustering performance. The results show that the spectral clustering outperforms k-means on classifying the risk ratings for all proposed models, while the clustering accuracy of the optimal model has been doubled by employing spectral clustering algorithm. Moreover, principal component analysis and star coordinate diagrams are presented to visualize high dimensional data to 2-D graphs. Finally, the overall liquid safety performance is evaluated by a novel combustion risk index via the weight values determined by the information entropy approach. This index can be used to explore inherently safer fuels in the process industries.     

A study on the effect of trees on gas explosions

The downstream as well as the upstream oil and gas industry has for a number of years been aware of the potential for flame acceleration and overpressure generation due to obstacles in gas clouds caused by leaks of flammable substances. To a large extent the obstacles were mainly considered to be equipment, piping, structure etc. typically found in many installations. For landbased installations there may however also be a potential for flame acceleration in regions of vegetation, like trees and bushes. This is likely to have been the case for the Buncefield explosion that occurred in 2005 (Buncefield Major Incident Investigation Board, 2008), which led to the work described in the present paper. The study contains both a numerical and an experimental part and was performed in the period 2006–2008 (Bakke and Brewerton, 2008, Van Wingerden and Wilkins, 2008).The numerical analysis consisted of modelling the Buncefield tank farm and the surrounding area with FLACS. The site itself was not significantly congested and it was not expected to give rise to high overpressures in case of a hydrocarbon leak. However, alongside the roads surrounding the site (Buncefield Lane and Cherry Tree Lane), dense vegetation in the form of trees and bushes was included in the model. This was based on a site survey (which was documented by video) performed in the summer of 2006.A large, shallow, heavier-than-air gas cloud was defined to cover part of the site and surroundings. Upon ignition a flame was established in the gas cloud. This flame accelerated through the trees along the surrounding roads, and resulted in high overpressures of several barg being generated by FLACS. This is to the authors’ knowledge the first time a possible effect of vegetation on explosions has been demonstrated by 3D analyses.As a consequence of these results, and since the software had been validated against typical industrial congestion rather than dense vegetation, a set of experiments to try to demonstrate if these effects were physical was carried out as well. The test volume consisted of a plastic tunnel, 20 m long with a semi-circular cross-section 3.2 m in diameter allowing for representing lanes of vegetation. The total volume of the tent was approximately 80.4 m³. The experimental programme involved different degrees of vegetation size, vegetation density (blocking ratio) and number of vegetation lanes (over the full length of the tunnel). The experiments were performed with stoichiometric propane–air mixtures resulting in continuously accelerating flames over the full length of the tunnel for some of the scenarios investigated.The main conclusions of the study are that trees can have an influence on flame acceleration in gas–air clouds, and that advanced models such as FLACS can be used to study such influence. More research is needed, however, because even if FLACS predicts flame acceleration in dense vegetation, no evidence exists that applying the code to trees rather than rigid obstacles provides results of acceptable accuracy.     

Integrating probabilistic signed digraph and reliability analysis for alarm signal optimization in chemical plant

The alarm system given in industrial plants are massive and complex. Under such condition, critical alarms are overwhelmed by false and unnecessary alarms and thus result in severe safety issues. To address the problem, this paper proposes a probabilistic signed digraph (PSDG) based alarm signal selection method that requires achieving maximal system reliability. In this method, a PSDG model is firstly constructed to visualize the causal relations between process variables. Then the criteria of observability and identifiability are imposed to determine the candidate alarm variables that can qualitatively distinguish all assumed faults. Instead of selecting the minimum number of combinations of candidate variables, the alarm variables are optimized by a reliability formulation that takes into account the missed alarm and false alarm probabilities of the system; this formulation is solved by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) graph. Finally, the developed methodology is illustrated using a Tennessee Eastman process.     

Solvent design and inherent safety assessment of solvent alternatives for palm oil recovery

The concept of inherent safety is important in developing an inherently safer and user-friendly process. This paper discusses a new integrated approach of computer-aided product design and inherent safety assessment. Computer-aided Molecular Design (CAMD) approach was utilized in this work to identify potential alternative to n-hexane, the widely used industrial solvent in extracting residual palm oil from pressed palm fibre. The formulation of solvent mixtures was optimized to meet the targeted physical properties before being tested using the Soxhlet Extraction method. Inherent safety assessment to assess the solvent's flammability, toxicity, reactivity, and explosiveness was conducted on the new solvent mix, Mixture 1 (n-hexane + ethanol), Mixture 2 (n-hexane + acetone) and Mixture 3 (n-hexane + n-butanol). It was found that Mixture 1 and 3 are safer than n-hexane and able to extract more oil than n-hexane and Mixture 2. However, the utilization of the solvent is dependent on the end product from the residual palm oil.     

江苏省道路交通安全评价研究

笔者利用历年江苏省道路交通事故基本数据进行指标筛选,对道路交通安全状况采用灰色理论和主成分分析相结合的评价方法。从宏观角度,应用灰色聚类评价理论,对江苏省历年来道路安全发展趋势;横向结合统计软件SPSS采用主成分分析法,构造综合评价指标,比较研究江苏省各城市道路安全现状。新方法从纵向和横向对江苏省道路交通安全形势进行了较为全面的分析,取得较为满意的效果。     

Injury and time studies of working processes in fishing

Epidemiological studies of occupational injury document the incidence rates of the main structures as type of workplace and the work departments. The specific work processes within the departments represent an internal structure where the injury rates have not been given much attention before.The purpose of the present study was to relate the length of the working time to the number of injuries for the specific working processes in fishing. Time measurements were performed during participation in fishing trips with four different kinds of vessels. Risk index numbers for the specific working processes were calculated by dividing the number of injuries within a 5-year period with the total sum of minutes used for each working process as measured during one fishing trip for each type of fishing. The highest risk index numbers were found for embarking and disembarking the vessel, which only takes a minimum of time for the fishermen. Also for other working processes, especially working with the gear and nets, the index numbers were high and relevant for the prevention. This can be used as a supplemental tool of injury prevention to point out working processes that need high attention for prevention. The method can be applied for other industries.