论世界银行衡量可持续发展的最新指标体系

本文综述了近年来衡量可持续发展的各类指标体系;对世界银行发布的最新体系,进行了全面的评论,并且由此归纳出该体系的五项优点和两项缺陷。尤其对于新指标体系应用“储蓄率”的消长,去动态地监测可持续发展的过程,给予了高度的评价。此外,本文还对有关的国家排序结果做了相应的对比分析。     

SWOT Analysis and Challenges of Nile Basin Initiative：An Integrated Water Resource Management Perspective

River Nile is one of the longest transboundery rivers and it is shared and used by Burundi,Democratic Republic of Congo,Egypt,Ethiopia,Eritrea,Kenya,Rwanda,Sudan,Tanzania and Uganda.As of today,the Nile is a crucial resource for the economic development of the Nile Basin countries and a vital source of livelihood for 160 million inhabitants as well as 300 million people living in the 10 riparian countries.The Nile Basin Initiative(NBI) is one of the international cooperative river basin management program and regional partnership where all the Nile Basin countries except Eritrea unite to pursue long-term sustainable development,improved land use practices and management.This review therefore focused on the challenges not faced on NBI in terms of integrated use of the river and conducted analysis of strengths,weaknesses,opportunities and threats(SWOT) based on secondary data.The result of the review revealed that for decades,the Nile Basin people have been facing many complex environmental,social,economic and political challenges that have made it difficult for the proper management and sustainability of Nile water.The initiative provides training to develop skills in government ministries,non-governmental organizations and local communities in each country.It is also working to raise awareness of critical environmental issues by strengthening networks of environmental education practitioners;developing curriculum in the education sector.The challenges of NBI include the involvement and funding of World Bank,lack of sufficient staff,procedural and policies conflicts,lack of coordination and linkage with other regional institutions and lack of recognition as river basin organization.Considering the complex nature of the project,it is recommended that the NBI should come up with a strong multi-disciplinary monitoring and evaluation team to follow up all implemented projects.The NBI should carry out participatory land use planning in communities along the river basin.Moreover,livelihood analysis should be carried out especially in communities along the Nile to come up with poverty eradication projects which are socially acceptable,applicable,economically viable and affordable.     

National and regional trends in ambient ozone measurements, 1975–1981

Long-term (1975–1981) and short-term (1980–1981) national and regional trends in ozone (O₃) are examined. The data used in this paper come from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Aerometric Data Bank (NADB). Air quality trends are presented for both the National Air Monitoring Sites (NAMS) and all other sites meeting the historical and data completeness criteria. Nationally, the composite average of the second-highest daily maximum 1-h O₃ values recorded at 209 sites decreased 14% between 1975 and 1981. An even greater improvement was observed in the estimated number of exceedances in the ozone season (July–September), which decreased 42%. Volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions decreased 9% during the same time period. The greater improvement observed in ozone levels appears to be a combination of reductions in VOC emissions and the change in the calibration procedure which took place between 1978 and 1979. Between 1980 and 1981, the majority of the 159 monitoring sites with data in both years decreased with a median rate of improvement of 8%. This is consistent with the 7% drop in VOC emissions during this period.     

全球实施《21世纪议程》的主要进展与趋势

从全球角度对世界环境与发展大会以来《21世纪议程》的主要实施进展进行了总结.分析表明,全球经济实现了大幅增长,在消除贫困、推进城市化、节约集约利用资源等方面取得积极进展,但在有关国际公约和承诺的履行方面尚需付出巨大努力.通过对当前全球可持续发展面临的重大挑战和未来趋势进行的分析,认为当前全球可持续发展主要面临三大挑战,即重大全球性环境问题对人类生存构成的直接威胁加大、发展空间争夺更趋激烈和全球性民生问题凸显；全球可持续发展主要呈现四大趋势,即可持续发展进一步由理念向全球行动转化、全球向绿色发展转型、新兴发展中国家成为全球可持续发展的重要推动力和可持续发展领域国际关系呈现竞争性合作.     

SWOT Analysis and Challenges of Nile Basin Initiative: An Integrated Water Resource Management Perspective

Abstract

River Nile is one of the longest transboundery rivers and it is shared and used by Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. As of today, the Nile is a crucial resource for the economic development of the Nile Basin countries and a vital source of livelihood for 160 million inhabitants as well as 300 million people living in the 10 riparian countries. The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) is one of the international cooperative river basin management program and regional partnership where all the Nile Basin countries except Eritrea unite to pursue long-term sustainable development, improved land use practices and management. This review therefore focused on the challenges not faced on NBI in terms of integrated use of the river and conducted analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) based on secondary data. The result of the review revealed that for decades, the Nile Basin people have been facing many complex environmental, social, economic and political challenges that have made it difficult for the proper management and sustainability of Nile water. The initiative provides training to develop skills in government ministries, non-governmental organizations and local communities in each country. It is also working to raise awareness of critical environmental issues by strengthening networks of environmental education practitioners; developing curriculum in the education sector. The challenges of NBI include the involvement and funding of World Bank, lack of sufficient staff, procedural and policies conflicts, lack of coordination and linkage with other regional institutions and lack of recognition as river basin organization. Considering the complex nature of the project, it is recommended that the NBI should come up with a strong multi-disciplinary monitoring and evaluation team to follow up all implemented projects. The NBI should carry out participatory land use planning in communities along the river basin. Moreover, livelihood analysis should be carried out especially in communities along the Nile to come up with poverty eradication projects which are socially acceptable, applicable, economically viable and affordable.     

234U and 238U isotopes in water and sediments of the southern Baltic

The aim of this work was to determine the concentration of 234U and 238U and calculate the values of the 234U/238U activity ratio in waters and sediments from the various regions of the southern Baltic Sea: Gdańsk Deep, S?upsk Narrow and Bornholm Deep. The concentration of uranium in analysed sediments from southern Baltic increase with core depth to what probably is connected with diffusion from sediments to water through interstitial water, where uranium concentration is much higher than in bottom water. The highest concentrations of uranium were observed in sediments of S?upsk Narrow (0.66-7.11 mg kg(-1) d.w.) and S?upsk Bank (0.61-6.93 mg kg(-1) d.w.), the lowest in sediments from Bornholm Deep (0.54-3.77 mg kg(-1) d.w.). The 234U/238U activity ratio results indicated that the sedimentation of terrigenic material and Vistula River transport are the general sources of uranium in the southern Baltic sediments. The value of 234U/238U activity ratio in sediments from reduction areas from southern Baltic (Gdańsk Deep and Bornholm Deep) indicated that reduction process of U(VI) to U(IV) and removing of anthropogenic uranium from seawater to sediments constitutes a small part only in Gdańsk Deep.     

Who cares about climate change reporting in developing countries? The market response to,and corporate accountability for,climate change in Bangladesh

Undoubtedly, climate change is one of the greatest problems facing today’s world. Despite this, traditional research has ignored the market response to, and accountability for, climate change reporting in developing countries. Hence, this study critically examines climate change reporting practices in the most affected countries in the world, with specific reference to Bangladesh. In the study, 32 semi-structured interviews and 71 annual reports are evaluated. Using legitimacy theory, the study contributes to building an understanding of companies’ attitude toward stakeholder accountability regarding climate change. The study finds that Bangladeshi companies are reporting climate change information on an average of 2.23 %. More specifically, the study demonstrates that large companies are reporting on more climate change issues than others because of their legitimized positions in the market. Again, a lack of regulation and a culture of low social accountability among the companies contribute to a very low level of disclosure on climate change. Surprisingly, multinationals are not providing satisfactory disclosure. The study has policy implications in developing countries for both local policy makers (the government) and international policy makers (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the European Union, the World Bank, the UN Environment Programme, the International Energy Agency and the World Economic Forum) as to how to engage local companies so that they become more socially accountable to climate change reporting.     

我国能源节约战略研究

节约能源，保护环境，是全面建设小康社会、实现可持续发展的必不可少的前提条件。中国万美元GDP能耗水平是发达国家的3至11倍。节能潜力很大。其中工业部门是我国的能源消费大户。其能源消费占全国能源消费总量的比重一直保持在70％左右，其节能潜力也居第一位。2020年中国实现全面建设小康社会的目标．人均GDP是3000美元，按届时人口15亿计算，全国GDP为49500亿美元，所需要的能源总量是33亿t标准煤，万美元GDP的能耗是6．67吨标煤；人均能耗是2．13吨标煤。只要政策选择适当。我国完全可以以当初发达国家一半的能源供应实现其相应的人均经济发展目标。为此，我们需要继续建立和完善适应市场经济要求的推动能源节约与资源综合利用的新机制；加快制定与《节约能源法》配套法规，引导和规范用能行为；加快建立以企业为主体的技术创新体系。     

Soil Erosion: A Food and Environmental Threat

Soil erosion is one of the most serious environmental and public health problems facing human society. Humans obtain more than 99.7% of their food (calories) from the land and less than 0.3% from the oceans and other aquatic ecosystems. Each year about 10 million ha of cropland are lost due to soil erosion, thus reducing the cropland available for food production. The loss of cropland is a serious problem because the World Health Organization reports that more than 3.7 billion people are malnourished in the world. Overall soil is being lost from land areas 10 to 40 times faster than the rate of soil renewal imperiling future human food security and environmental quality.     

Polybrominated diphenyl ether flame retardants in the U.S. marine environment: A review

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are used as flame retardants in polymeric materials such as furnishing foam, rigid plastics and textiles. The U.S. has historically led the world production of these man-made chemicals and was responsible for about 50% of the total global demand in 2001. Paradoxically, scientific studies addressing sources, behavior and fate of PBDEs in the U.S. environment are limited when compared to those in Europe. This paper reviews the distribution of PBDEs in marine and estuarine matrices of the three U.S. coasts (Atlantic, Pacific and Gulf of Mexico) and Alaska. PBDEs are ubiquitous in all compartments including water, sediment and biota. Contamination is higher in urbanized regions such as the coast of California. In numerous cases, concentrations of PBDEs in U.S. marine matrices are among the highest in the world. Higher PBDE levels in the U.S. marine environment reflect that over 90% of the Penta-BDE global production has been utilized in the United States. BDEs 47, 99 and 100 typically dominate the composition of PBDEs in most samples and exhibit high concentrations in several matrices. BDEs 17, 28, 33, 49, 153, 154 and 155 are also of concern since they are known to be present in a minor proportion in the Penta-BDE products. BDEs 206, 207, 208 and 209 which occur in Deca-BDE products do not appear to accumulate in most marine organisms although they may be debrominated into more toxic congeners. There is still no regulation addressing PBDEs contamination in the U.S. aquatic environments. Thus, efforts to understand the cycling of PBDEs in the environment as well as toxic effects in organisms are needed to support the development of quality criteria. Some PBDE congeners fulfill the criteria to be recognized as persistent organic pollutants (POPs). The addition of PBDEs to the list of POPs established by the United Nations Stockholm Convention will be important in elevating environmental concerns regarding these chemicals to an appropriate level of awareness.     

Energy efficiency and conservation for individual Americans

Americans make up only 4% of the world population, yet currently consume 25% of the world’s fossil fuels. The U.S. imports 63% of its oil and it is predicted that by 2020 the U.S. will be importing 95% of its oil resources. Over the past century, ample and affordable supplies of fossil fuels have powered the growth and prosperity of the economies of the US and other countries. Within this century, world oil supplies will decline while demand is projected to continue to increase, suggesting that we will have to transition to different fuels or become much more energy efficient or both. Looking ahead to the near decades, estimates are that consumers will have to reduce their energy use by at least 50%. This reduction will be necessary in large part due the decline in the availability of conventional oil and gas, but also because the U.S. population will continue to grow in number. Although government action is important, individuals too often discount their ability to make significant contributions to solving such major problems. This investigation identifies how informed and concerned individuals can collectively conserve fossil energy. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Health benefits from reducing indoor air pollution from household solid fuel use in China--three abatement scenarios

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), indoor air pollution (IAP) from the use of solid fuels in households in the developing world is responsible for more than 1.6 million premature deaths each year, whereof 0.42 million occur in China alone. We argue that the methodology applied by WHO--the so-called fuel-based approach--underestimates the health effects, and suggest an alternative method. Combining exposure-response functions and current mortality and morbidity rates, we estimate the burden of disease of IAP in China and the impacts of three abatement scenarios. Using linear exposure-response functions, we find that 3.5 [0.8-14.7 95% CI] million people die prematurely due to IAP in China each year. The central estimate constitutes 47% of all deaths in China. We find that modest changes in the use of cooking fuels in rural households might have a large health impact, reducing annual mortality by 0.63 [0.1-3. 2 95% CI] million. If the indoor air quality (IAQ) standard set by the Chinese government (150 microg PM(10)/m(3)) was met in all households, we estimate that 0.9 [0.2-4.8] million premature deaths would be avoided in urban areas and 2.8 [0.7-12.4] million in rural areas. However, in urban areas this would require improvements to the outdoor air quality in addition to a complete fuel switch to clean fuels in households. We estimate that a fuel switch in urban China could prevent 0.7 [0.2-4.8] million premature deaths. The methodology for exposure assessment applied here is probably more realistic than the fuel-based approach; however, the use of linear exposure-response relationships most likely tends to overestimate the effects. The discrepancies between our results and the WHO estimates is probably also explained by our use of "all-cause mortality" which includes important causes of death like cardiovascular diseases, conditions known to be closely associated with exposure to particulate pollution, whereas the WHO estimate is limited to respiratory diseases.     

Sustainable nations: what do aggregate indexes tell us?

What is a ‘sustainable nation’ and how can we identify and rank ‘sustainable nations?’ Are nations producing and consuming in a sustainable way? Although several aggregate indexes have been proposed to answer such questions, comprehensive and internationally comparable data are not available for most of these. This paper quantitatively compares three aggregate indexes of sustainability: the World Bank’s ‘Genuine Savings’ measure, the ‘Ecological Footprint,’ and the ‘Environmental Sustainability Index.’ These three indexes are available for a large number of countries and also seem to be the most influential among the aggregate indexes. This paper first discusses the main limitations and weaknesses of each of these indexes. Subsequently, it shows that rankings of sustainable nations and aggregate assessments of unsustainable world population and world GDP shares vary considerably among these indexes. This disagreement leads to suggestions for analysis and policy. One important insight is that climate change, arguable the most serious threat currently faced by humanity, is not or arbitrarily captured by the indexes.     

省域旅游扶贫工程研究

旅游扶贫工程是解决贫困问题、促进区域协调发展的重要途径。以广东为代表，在省城范围内开展的立体化协作旅游扶贫工程是一个实践创新，上个月政府主导、区域协调、系统动作、产业扶贫等特点和优势。本文在广东三年多来的实践基础上，首次提出“省域旅游扶贫工程”概念，并对这一新兴的旅游扶贫模式进行了系统研究，探讨了其运行机制，分析了其实施过程中可能面临的挑战和误区，最后提出了基于政策实践的相关建议。     

中国城乡贫困变动:2004—2012

本文基于2004—2012年中国综合社会调查数据,根据家庭人均年收入2 300元的国家贫困标准线和"1天1.5美元"的亚洲贫困标准线,使用FGT指数和脱贫时间两种贫困指数评估了我国城乡贫困整体变动趋势,并从城乡和地区、个体和家庭特征层面分解贫困人口构成;也考察了贫困变动的增长效应和收入分配效应;最后定量地分析收入增长的影响因素。结果表明,根据两种贫困标准线,两种贫困指数测度结果一致反映我国贫困人口规模显著减少;按国家贫困标准线,我国城乡贫困发生率下降了8.8%,但到2012年的依然高达8.6%,农村贫困人口平均脱贫时间为5.4年,而相对贫困发生率有所上升。不同地区的贫困变动差异较大,西部地区和中部地区贫困发生率依然高于全国平均水平3.41个百分点和0.22个百分点,贫困强度和贫困深度现象都还较为严重;东部地区的减贫效应十分明显,但贫困人口内部收入差距拉大问题较为突出。经济增长的脱贫效应较为显著,但增长的亲贫性有待提高;城乡、地区和贫困人口内部居民收入差距逐渐拉大,并成为反贫困的严重障碍。外出非农工作经历、性别差异和教育程度是影响收入增长的关键因素。基于此,本文建议反贫政策应瞄准西部地区的教育程度和健康水平较低、家庭规模较大的农村居民,尤其是女性户主家庭,也应加强养老保险、社会帮扶和人力资本投资,形成改善收入分配为重点的社会保障性扶贫政策体系;中部地区可以借助邻近东部地区的地理优势,通过承接产业转移持续实施"开发式扶贫"政策体系;同时,也可将扶贫标准线提高为每人"1天1.5美元"的亚洲贫困线。     

Is shrimp farming a successful adaptation to salinity intrusion? A geospatial associative analysis of poverty in the populous Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna Delta of Bangladesh

The Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta of Bangladesh is one of the most populous deltas in the world, supporting as many as 140 million people. The delta is threatened by diverse environmental stressors including salinity intrusion, with adverse consequences for livelihood and health. Shrimp farming is recognised as one of the few economic adaptations to the impacts of the rapidly salinizing delta. Although salinity intrusion and shrimp farming are geographically co-located in the delta, there has been no systematic study to examine their geospatial associations with poverty. In this study, we use multiple data sources including Census, Landsat Satellite Imagery and soil salinity survey data to examine the extent of geospatial clustering of poverty within the delta and their associative relationships with salinity intensity and shrimp farming. The analysis was conducted at the union level, which is the lowest local government administrative unit in Bangladesh. The findings show a strong clustering of poverty in the delta, and whilst different intensities of salinization are significantly associated with increasing poverty, neither saline nor freshwater shrimp farming has a significant association with poverty. These findings suggest that whilst shrimp farming may produce economic growth, in its present form it has not been an effective adaptation for the poor and marginalised areas of the delta. The study demonstrates that there are a series of drivers of poverty in the delta, including salinization, water logging, wetland/mudflats, employment, education and access to roads, amongst others that are discernible spatially, indicating that poverty alleviation programmes in the delta require strengthening with area-specific targeted interventions.     

中国农村贫困的测度与模拟:1995-2003

本文介绍了基予GQ Lorenz曲线的参数方法测度贫困的基本原理，测算了1995—2003年中国农村贫困状况，重点对贫困的变化进行模拟分析。不同贫困线的模拟分析表明：各贫困指标对贫困线较小的移动具有较商的敏感性，其政策涵义是扶贫不应当只注意贫困线以下的家庭。而且也应当注意陷入贫困风险商的家庭。贫困分解的模拟分析表明：不仅收入与贫困发生率有关，而且分配不合理却增加了贫困的深度和强度，其政策涵义是贫困问题的根本解决应将更多的注意力放在贫困人口的收入及其分配上。     

Non-timber forest product dependence among the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Jah Hut</Emphasis> subgroup of Peninsular Malaysia’s Orang Asli

Non-timber forest products (NTFP) represent key sources of cash and subsistence income for millions of rural and indigenous peoples living in tropical developing countries throughout the world. The current study investigates the use and significance of NTFP within a sample of Peninsular Malaysia’s Orang Asli (indigenous people). Data collected via household surveys across three sampling phases reveals that more than 75% of the population is actively engaged in NTFP collection. Household responses indicate diversity in both the types and uses of products collected. NTFP collection participation, frequency of collection, and collection reliance are found to be significantly negatively related to village proximity to the market, as well as to income level relative to the Malaysian poverty line. When collection variables are examined by different product categories, relationships with market access and income group are variable. Implications for different approaches to forest conservation and rural development are discussed.     

Obstacles to climate change adaptation decisions: a case study of sea-level rise and coastal protection measures in Kiribati

International aid is increasingly focused on adaptation to climate change. At recent meetings of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the developed world agreed to rapidly increase international assistance to help the developing world respond to the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we examine the decision-making challenges facing internationally supported climate change adaptation projects, using the example of efforts to implement coastal protection measures (e.g. sea walls, mangrove planting) in Kiribati. The central equatorial Pacific country is home to the Kiribati Adaptation Project, the first national-level climate change adaptation project supported by the World Bank. Drawing on interview and document research conducted over an 8-year period, we trace the forces influencing decisions about coastal protection measures, starting from the variability and uncertainty in climate change projections, through the trade-offs between different measures, to the social, political, and economic context in which decisions are finally made. We then discuss how sub-optimal adaptation measures may be implemented despite years of planning, consultation, and technical studies. This qualitative analysis of the real-world process of climate change adaptation reveals that embracing a culturally appropriate and short-term (~20 years) planning horizon, while not ignoring the longer-term future, may reduce the influence of scientific uncertainty on decisions and provide opportunities to learn from mistakes, reassess the science, and adjust suboptimal investments. The limiting element in this approach to adaptation is likely to be the availability of consistent, long-term financing.     

Military service,deployments, and exposures in relation to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis etiology

BackgroundFactors underlying a possible excess of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) among military veterans remain unidentified. Limitations of previous studies on this topic include reliance on ALS mortality as a surrogate for ALS incidence, low statistical power, and sparse information on military-related factors.ObjectivesWe evaluated associations between military-related factors and ALS using data from a case-control study of U.S. military veterans.MethodsFrom 2005 to 2010, we identified medical record-confirmed ALS cases via the National Registry of Veterans with ALS and controls via the Veterans Benefits Administration's Beneficiary Identification and Records Locator System database. In total, we enrolled 621 cases and 958 frequency-matched controls in the Genes and Environmental Exposures in Veterans with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis study. We collected information on military service and deployments and 39 related exposures. We used unconditional logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We used inverse probability weighting to adjust for potential bias from confounding, missing covariate data, and selection arising from a case group that disproportionately included long-term survivors and a control group that may or may not differ from U.S. military veterans at large.ResultsThe odds of ALS did not differ for veterans of the Air Force, Army, Marines, and Navy. We found higher odds of ALS for veterans whose longest deployment was World War II or the Korean War and a positive trend with total years of all deployments (OR = 1.27; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.52). ALS was positively associated with exposure to herbicides for military purposes, nasopharyngeal radium, personal pesticides, exhaust from heaters or generators, high-intensity radar waves, contaminated food, explosions within one mile, herbicides in the field, mixing and application of burning agents, burning agents in the field, and Agent Orange in the field, with ORs between 1.50 and 7.75.ConclusionsAlthough our results need confirmation, they are potentially important given the large number of U.S. military veterans, and they provide clues to potential factors underlying the apparent increase of ALS in veteran populations.