Toxicant-induced fecundity compensation: A model of population responses

A mathematical model widely applied in population studies and in assessment of the impact of exploitation on fish populations was applied to assess cadmium toxicity in laboratory populations ofDaphnia galeata mendotae. Over a range of toxicant concentrations, the birth rate of the population increased to balance the death rate and the population compensated for the increased mortality. The model describes the relation between toxicant concentration, toxicant-induced mortality, and equilibrium population size. Compensation for increased mortality is described in terms of the decrease in population size necessary to produce an increase in the birth rate that will balance the increased death rate. The relative capacity of different aquatic organisms to compensate for toxicant-induced mortality is examined and a relation between compensatory capacity and the innate capacity for increase is developed.     

The politics of preserving natural areas in Third World States

Summary Any attempts to preserve Third World ecosystems must recognize that the ultimate decisions lie with the governments of these sovereign states, which have to deal with widespread demands for higher living standards as well as growing populations. To deal with the powerful pressures of economic growth, the most promising strategy for conservationists is to press the Western industrialized states, where the conservation movement is relatively strong, to join with the Third World in an international agreement whereby the latter would preserve portions of threatened ecosystems in exchange for compensation provided from the industralized countries, most plausibly through an agreement to reduce Third World countries' debt. To reinforce this protection, the industrialized states could agree to purchase tropical ecosystem products only from those states which agree to preserve certain portions of their ecosystems. While there would be great problems both in working out the levels of compensation and in persuading the industrialized states to participate in such a scheme, intensive lobbying by conservation groups might be enough to bring it to fruition.Dr. John Cartwright, who teaches courses in environmental politics and African politics at the University of Western Ontario, took degrees from Queen's University in Kingston, Canada, and the University of Toronto. From 1963 to 1966 he taught at the University of Sierra Leone in Freetown. He has produced three books on African politics, his most recent beingPolitical Leadership in Africa (1983). He has also been interested for many years in natural history and conservation issues, which have taken him on several visits to Latin America as well as to Africa.     

An examination of the compatibility of World Bank policies towards population, development and biodiversity in the Third World

This paper addresses the compatibility of World Bank policies towards population growth, development and biodiversity in the Third World. The World Bank has been central to the design and implementation of the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the remit of which includes the conservation of global biodiversity. However, the Bank's influence over the facility has in itself created controversy which may undermine its effectiveness. More significantly, the Bank's commitment to the GEF is subverted by its policies in other social and economic sectors. The World Bank, together with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), directs the structural adjustment of Third World economies through economic deregulation and privatization. This approach exacerbates inequalities and further empowers large landowners who may then displace tenant farmers and claim exclusive rights to former common land. Thus, biodiversity loss occurs as large landowners reorientate the land use towards the production of export goods and dispossessed farmers invade marginal land. Population growth influences biodiversity loss through its contribution to agricultural intensification and the settlement of marginal land. The World Bank encourages this trend through its non-committal approach to population control, but more especially through structural adjustment's positive effect on fertility.     

Energy policies and collective self-reliance of the Third World

This paper reviews the broad pattern of energy use, output and consumption. The voracious consumption of non-renewable energy resources by the developed countries could exhaust this asset just when the accelerated development of the Third World would begin to gather momentum, thus denying them for their own use what is primarily their major resource. The paper underlines the critical importance of cooperative policies aimed at collective self-reliance of the Third World to ensure adequate availability of energy for its development.     

A biotechnological agenda for the third world

Third World countries should exploit the genetic information stored in their flora and fauna to develop independent and highly competitive biotechnological and pharmaceutical industries. The necessary condition for this policy to succeed is the reshaping of their universities and hospitals—to turn them into high-caliber research institutions dedicated to the creation of original knowledge and biomedical invention. Part of the service of the Third World foreign debt should be co-invested with the lending banks in high technology enterprises. This should be complemented with an active program of investments in First World biotech companies and university research departments which could contribute to the solving of problems connected with the First World. These strategic alliances would allow effective training of molecular biologists, improvement of South American universities, and education of biotechnologists, managers, and lawyers in the complexities of high-technology business. The establishment of real joint ventures between developed and underdeveloped countries might contribute to change the present strained relations between the North and the South, and science and technology could become real forces of social and economic development.     

For an improved rural housing to limit distress migration

Third World cities have been suffering from many problems notably slums, squatter housing, unemployment and so on. The aim of this study is to discuss the process and means of transforming rural life so as to create better opportunities and enhance the living conditions in the countryside. It is suggested that this approach would retain a substantial part of the rural population in the rural areas, thus avoiding the urban problems and chaotic unplanned development.     

Population,environment, and development

The strategies for reducing population growth include social development and improvement in the educational attainment of women. The decline in Kenya's growth rate was attributed to high female literacy and reduced infant mortality. Another strategy for enhancing fertility decline is to reduce child mortality, particularly from preventable causes such as diarrhea. The entire cost of such a strategy to reduce preventable disease would be about $1.33 per 300 million taxpayers in developed countries. Family planning services must be expanded. Prevention of maternal mortality and AIDS would bring major benefits. Strategies for environmental protection emphasized the already existing plan of action set out in the UNCED document Agenda 21 in Rio de Janeiro. The plan has suffered from inaction. The estimated cost of $625 million was considered to be several times smaller than the costs of inaction. The elimination of subsidies in tropical forests would have an immediate impact. Natural resource accounting at the national level would include the value of natural resources. Pricing would change radically for gasoline if the costs of urban smog, acid rain, low-level ozone pollution, and global warming were taken into account. Strategies for sustainable development pertained to the preceding strategies and others indicated in the Agenda 21 Action Plan. If funding were better targeted to the poorest 20% of global population with high fertility rates, the accomplishments would be heralded. 1.2 million are living in absolute poverty, and aid for nutrition, primary health care, water and sanitation, basic education, and family planning amounts to only 10% of expenditures. An increase to 20% would mean a contribution from Americans of $7.50 per person or 33% of $25 thousand million from all developed countries. Developing countries need to lower their military expenditures, privatize public enterprises, change inappropriate development policies, eliminate corruption, and improve national governance. The debt burden should be reduced.     

Ethical and political problems in third world biotechnology

Third World countries are not pursuing scientific and technological policies leading to the development of strong biotechnological industries. Their leaders have been misled into believing that modern biotechnological industries can be built in the absence of strong, intellectually aggressive, and original scientific schools. Hence, they do not strive to reform their universities, which have weak commitments to research, and do not see the importance of having research hospitals able to generate excellent and relevant clinical investigation. These strategic gaps in scientific capability, the lack of governmental and corporate research funding, and the dependent nature of the chemical and pharmaceutical industries of the Third World make the development of competitive biotechnology a highly improbable event. If the present trend continues, underdeveloped countries will continue to be testing grounds for biological materials and agents, sources of valuable germplasm, and markets for high-value-added products and processes invented and manufactured in the First World. This article recommends that the international organizations collaborate in the urgent task of educating the Third World political leaders and administrators in the real problems connected with the generation of high technology.     

The copper and aluminum industries: A review of structural changes

In this article the evolution of the aluminium and copper industries is examined, with a view to deriving policy options open to Third World copper producers, which face a declining rate in the growth of consumption. Market structure, company behaviour and performance are analysed for both industries. The impact of energy and general economic crisis in copper and aluminium industries is assessed and market concentration trends are discussed. We conclude that Third World copper producers must change their basic orientation and become seriously involved in market development.     

Government policy and environmental protection in the developing world: The example of Nigeria

Environmental protection is a topical and controversial issue of contemporary Third World development. As a result of the growing crisis of environment and development as well as issues of global environmental balance, divergent views and proposals have been put forward by external governments, international agencies, and environmental groups in resolving the environmental degradation problems of the developing world. However, very little appraisal has been made of the efforts by indigenous Third World governments in facing up to their environmental conservation issues. This article examines the role of past and recent government environmental control policies and programs in Nigeria. The article analyzes three aspects of environmental protection: (1) the theoretical economic bases of environmental protection and the Nigerian approach to environmental protection, including traditional values and modern institutional control measures, the latter embracing nature conservation efforts; (2) environmental considerations in national development plans; and (3) the evolution of a federal environmental protection agency and a national policy on environment. Finally, the article discusses the future challenges and directions for environmental policy.     

The relationship between resources and living standards

Available estimates of potentially recoverable world mineral and fuel resources are examined with a view to determining whether everyone likely to be living on earth next century could be raised to the material living standards people in developed countries now have. It is concluded that this goal is impossible. A number of fundamentally important implications follow, especially regarding the inappropriateness of growth strategies in general, goals for Third World development, and the need for ‘de-development’ of developed countries to much more frugal, self-sufficient and cooperative social systems.     

基于可能—满意度的合肥市人口承载力研究

在系统分析城市人口承载力内涵基础上,运用“可能-满意度”法,在多目标条件下预测未来可支持合肥市健康发展的适度人口规模.结果表明：①城市供水、城市公共交通、城市医疗是合肥未来人口承载力的主要限制因素.②经济资源是未来人口承载力的主要“推力”,而自然资源、社会资源形成了人口承载力“拉力”.③预测2020年,合肥应将人口规模控制在593万人以内.     

Environmental education in third world schools: Rhetoric or realism?

Summary Approaches to teaching about environmental concerns that have been successful either in Western schools or in non-formal Third World projects are unlikely to be effectively implemented in Third World schools. The perceptions of schooling in the Third World, together with the economic, political and social context in which it is conducted, present constraints that are very different. Unless these constraints are recognized, attempted reforms by environmental educators will, at best, remain only at the rhetorical level and, at worst, prove counter-productive. The paper discusses three broad categories of constraint: arising from the socio-political context of schooling, the educational system itself, and issues concerning school-village transfer. The argument is illustrated by reference to research in developing countries on similar educational reforms, such as community schooling, and with examples from the author's research in Papua New Guinea. The paper concludes with some positive lessons for those wishing to see a concern for environmental issues pervade the curriculum of schools in the Third World. The danger of making such reforms over-ambitious is stressed. To be successful, such work must be given high status in the eyes of students and teachers and examination reforms should be introduced to reinforce this.Dr Graham Vulliamy lectures in Sociology in the Department of Education at the University of York. Following field research trips to Papua New Guinea in 1979–1980, 1982 and 1986, he has a special interest in the implementation of educational reforms in developing countries. He is an executive editor of theBritish Journal of Sociology of Education and of theInternational Journal of Educational Development.     

青海省人口规模预测及人口发展对策研究

人口是社会的基础要素,人口规模及发展趋势预测对区域城市规划的制定和人口政策的调整具有重要的参考意义.综合运用灰色、阻滞增长、人口自然增长、回归分析四种数学模型对青海省2013--2030年人口规模及发展趋势进行预测,结果表明：未来青海省总人口将继续处于稳定增长状态,年平均人口增长率8.77‰,2020年青海省年末常住人口将达到621.11万人,2030年将达到676.25万人.针对青海省的省情和人口发展形势提出相应对策和建议.     

The long iron line: Water resources development at the United States Military Academy,West Point (1802–1943)

Comprehensive analyses of long-term region-specific water resources developments could offer new insights for contemporary water resources planners and decision makers. The objective of this work was to analyze water supply development at the United States Military Academy (USMA) during the 19th and early 20th Centuries through the lens of selected modern water resources planning and management practices. Analysis of water usage, population, and technological growth revealed that changes in technology had a greater influence on total water withdrawals than an increase in population. The USMA water supply system evolved incrementally over much of the 141-year study period and failure to adequately recognize shortcomings in water supply options resulted in several suboptimal decisions. Communications and enhanced stakeholder participation might have resulted in alternative decisions.     

The limits of technological optimism

Summary Technological optimism is the doctrine that a growing number of technological improvements in such areas as food production, environmental quality and energy will sustain life as human population soars. It evolved as a response to the Malthusian study The Limits to Growth (The Club of Rome, 1972). Like population biologist Paul Ehrlich, Professor James Krier of the University of Michigan Law School believes that the technological optimists may be wrong. Krier describes how the marginal costs of pollution control increasingly rise. He faults biologist Barry Commoner for neglecting population growth as the cause of pollution and positing the postwar technological transition as its cause. He argues that population growth forced this transition as science searched for substitutes for dwindling resources. Krier criticises as an article of faith the technological optimists' belief that S-curve patterns of technological advance will always arrive in response to the J-curve of exponential population growth. He thinks that the technological optimists may be deluding humanity by predicting the continual emergence of technological breakthroughs at ever-increasing rates. He favours growth policies that would allow humanity to ease into a steady state of resource use and minimise the maximum cost, which would be a global crash after technological innovation fails. Krier laments that modern technolgy can worsen pollution and invites problems of latency, irreversibility, zero-infinity risk and remoteness. He thinks that approapriate technologies which have failed economically may fail politically because the political process has been captured by opposing interests. Krier urges that the population crisis should be adressed insteadAndrew D. Basiago is a graduate of UCLA and Northwestern School of Law's environmental law programme. As writer, lawyer and environmental planner he has written articles about ecology for the Cousteau Society and interviewed such luminaries as R. Buckminster Fuller, Amory B. Lovins and     

Is Denser Greener? An Evaluation of Higher Density Development as an Urban Stormwater‐Quality Best Management Practice1

Abstract: A simple spreadsheet model was used to evaluate potential water quality benefits of high‐density development. The question was whether the reduced land consumed by higher density development (vs. standard suburban developments) would offset the worse water quality generated by a greater amount of impervious surface in the smaller area. Total runoff volume and per acre loadings of total phosphorous, total nitrogen, and total suspended solids increased with density as expected, but per capita loadings and runoff decreased markedly with density. For a constant or given population, then, higher density can result in dramatically lower total loadings than more diffuse suburban densities. The model showed that a simple doubling of standard suburban densities [to 8 dwelling units per acre (DUA) from about 3 to 5 DUA] in most cases could do more to reduce contaminant loadings associated with urban growth than many traditional stormwater best management practices (BMPs), and that higher densities such as those associated with transit‐oriented development could outperform almost all traditional BMPs, in terms of reduced loadings per a constant population. Because higher density is associated with vibrant urban life, building a better city may be the best BMP to mitigate the water quality damage that will accompany the massive urban growth expected for the next several decades.     

Energy efficiency in developing countries Policy options and the poverty dilemma

Much of the rural population of the developing countries is poor and depends on agriculture for its living. One means of improving the standard of living of such poor peoples is through the introduction of modern more intensive and therefore more productive agricultural methods. Such methods will require energy intensification. The resulting increase in energy demand particularly electrical energy, will be very large, especially because the rural areas are least able to benefit from energy saving technologies.     

The carajas iron ore project: The strategy of a third world state- owned enterprise in a depressed market

This paper describes how the Carajas iron ore project was set up in February 1985 at a time of deep recession in the iron ore and steel industries. Development of the project was met with much criticism, mainly from North American steel makers, who argued that the project would only be successful through the support of a Third World government, highly dependent on foreign exchange, without any consideration being given to its economic feasibility or to the fundamentals of the market. The authors explain why the World Bank took the step of setting up the project and how its development can be partly explained by the interests of the Japanese and European steel makers. The role of the Brazilian government is explained and the authors conclude that the relatively low rate of investment anticipated by the project will be overshadowed by the high gains in foreign exchange.     

Sources of funds for developing country petroleum development

The Third World debt crisis has drastically altered the options open to Third World countries to fund petroleum development. Restricted access to international capital markets means that developing countries are having to reconsider alternative financial options to achieve a satisfactory rate of petroleum development. Of these, only foreign direct investmentis capable of compensating for the loss of more traditional sources of funds. To this end, developing countries are revising and harmonizing prior restrictive direct investment rules and tax codes, with recent financial innovations further underwriting the process.