Monetary incentives to avoid deforestation under the Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD)+ climate change mitigation scheme in Tanzania

The paper estimates and compares the level of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) payments required to compensate for the opportunity costs (OCs) of stopping the conversion of montane forest and miombo woodlands into cropland in two agro-ecological zones in Morogoro Region in Tanzania. Data collected from 250 households were used for OC estimation. REDD+ payment was estimated as the net present value (NPV) of agricultural rent and forest rent during land clearing, minus net returns from sustainable wood harvest, divided by the corresponding reduction in carbon stock. The median compensation required to protect the current carbon stock in the two vegetation types ranged from USD 1 tCO₂e^?1 for the montane forest to USD 39 tCO₂e^?1 for the degraded miombo woodlands, of which up to 70 % and 16 %, respectively, were for compensating OCs from forest rent during land clearing. The figures were significantly higher when the cost of farmers’ own labor was not taken into account in NPV calculations. The results also highlighted that incentives in the form of sustainable harvests could offset up to 55 % of the total median OC to protect the montane forest and up to 45 % to protect the miombo woodlands, depending on the wage rates. The findings suggest that given the possible factors that can potentially affect estimates of REDD+ payments, avoiding deforestation of the montane forest would be feasible under the REDD+ scheme. However, implementation of the policy in villages around the miombo area would require very high compensation levels.     

Will funding to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and (forest) Degradation (REDD+) stop conversion of peat swamps to oil palm in orangutan habitat in Tripa in Aceh,Indonesia?

Tripa is the last remaining peat-swamp forest that harbours a potentially viable Sumatran orangutan (Pongo abelii) sub-population in a formally but not effectively protected area. It appears to be a simple showcase where current efforts to financially support reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) converge with biodiversity and social co-benefits. In practice, however, situation is more complex. REDD+ efforts interact with global palm oil trade and regulatory approaches (the moratorium) to achieve national goals for emissions reduction under umbrella of nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMA). To contextualize this debate, we assessed (i) land-use history and formal basis of palm-oil companies’ rights; (ii) carbon (C) stocks, historical emission levels and potential emissions that can be avoided; (iii) economic benefits of land-use options and opportunity costs of avoiding emissions; (iv) biodiversity and environmental services; and (v) alternative options for “high C stock development” and employment generation. Natural forest cover declined (54 % in 1995, 18 % in 2009) while oil palm increased 4–39 %. Aboveground C stocks decreased from 148 Mg ha^?1 in 1990 to 61 Mg ha^?1 in 2009, leading to average annual emissions of 14.5 Mg (carbon dioxide) CO₂e ha^?1 year^?1. While 41 % of these emissions yield less than American Dollar (USD) 5 of current economic benefits per Mg CO₂e emitted and might be compensated by REDD+, nearly all new emissions derive from a breach of existing laws, regulations and voluntary palm-oil standards. Substantial investment in alternative employment is needed, rather than carbon payments per se, to support livelihoods in a low carbon emissions economy.     

Implementing REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation): evidence on governance,evaluation and impacts from the REDD-ALERT project

The REDD-ALERT (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation from Alternative Land Uses in the Rainforests of the Tropics) project started in 2009 and finished in 2012, and had the aim of evaluating mechanisms that translate international-level agreements into instruments that would help change the behaviour of land users while minimising adverse repercussions on their livelihoods. Findings showed that some developing tropical countries have recently been through a forest transition, thus shifting from declining to expanding forests at a national scale. However, in most of these (e.g. Vietnam), a significant part of the recent increase in national forest cover is associated with an increase in importation of food and timber products from abroad, representing leakage of carbon stocks across international borders. Avoiding deforestation and restoring forests will require a mixture of regulatory approaches, emerging market-based instruments, suasive options, and hybrid management measures. Policy analysis and modelling work showed the high degree of complexity at local levels and highlighted the need to take this heterogeneity into account—it is unlikely that there will be a one size fits all approach to make Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) work. Significant progress was made in the quantification of carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes following land-use change in the tropics, contributing to narrower confidence intervals on peat-based emissions and their reporting standards. There are indications that there is only a short and relatively small window of opportunity of making REDD+ work—these included the fact that forest-related emissions as a fraction of total global GHG emissions have been decreasing over time due to the increase in fossil fuel emissions, and that the cost efficiency of REDD+ may be much less than originally thought due to the need to factor in safeguard costs, transaction costs and monitoring costs. Nevertheless, REDD+ has raised global awareness of the world’s forests and the factors affecting them, and future developments should contribute to the emergence of new landscape-based approaches to protecting a wider range of ecosystem services.     

On international equity in reducing emissions from deforestation

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) can be an effective and efficient means of mitigating climate change. However, the perceived equity in the distribution of financial incentives for REDD could also emerge as a critical issue in international negotiations. The design of reference levels, which provide the benchmark for crediting emissions reductions, affects the economic incentives for national participation in a REDD mechanism and thus the overall willingness to reach an agreement on REDD. This paper compares the equity impacts of five proposed reference level designs using a partial-equilibrium model. Tradeoffs among equity, environmental effectiveness and cost-efficiency indicate the proposals trigger similar aggregate emissions reductions but lead to different outcomes in efficiency and alternative measures of equity. If equity across countries is measured as the financial incentive provided relative to a country's forest carbon stock, then a REDD mechanism compensating a uniform share of at-risk carbon stocks is the most equitable. On the other hand, if equity is evaluated as the financial incentive relative to the opportunity costs of participating in REDD, then the most equitable approach would be compensating emissions reductions but withholding a part of the payments to compensate for carbon stocks, which also encourages broader country participation under our model.     

Beyond opportunity costs: who bears the implementation costs of reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation?

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) in developing countries is based on the premise that conserving tropical forests is a cost-effective way to reduce carbon emissions and therefore can be fully funded by international actors with obligations or interests in reducing emissions. However, concerns have repeatedly been raised about whether stakeholders in REDD+ host countries will actually end up bearing the costs of REDD+. Most prior analyses of the costs of REDD+ have focused on the opportunity costs of foregone alternative uses of forest land. We draw on a pan-tropical study of 22 subnational REDD+ initiatives in five countries to explore patterns in implementation costs, including which types of organizations are involved and which are sharing the costs of implementing REDD+. We find that many organizations involved in the implementation of REDD+, particularly at the subnational level and in the public sector, are bearing implementation costs not covered by the budgets of the REDD+ initiatives. To sustain this level of cost-sharing, REDD+ must be designed to deliver local as well as global forest benefits.     

Transaction costs for carbon sequestration projects in the tropical forest sector

There is general consensus that carbon (C) sequestration projects in forests are a relatively low cost option for mitigating climate change, but most studies on the subject have assumed that transaction costs are negligible. The objectives of the study were to examine transaction costs for forest C sequestration projects and to determine the significance of the costs based on economic analyses. Here we examine four case studies of active C sequestration projects being implemented in tropical countries and developed for the C market. The results from the case studies were then used with a dynamic forest and land use economic model to investigate how transaction costs affect the efficiency and cost of forest C projects globally. In the case studies transaction costs ranged from 0.38 to 27 million US dollars ($0.09 to $7.71/t CO₂) or 0.3 to 270 % of anticipated income depending principally on the price of C and project size. The three largest cost categories were insurance (under the voluntary market; 41–89 % of total costs), monitoring (3–42 %) and regulatory approval (8–50 %). The global analysis indicated that most existing estimates of marginal costs of C sequestration are underestimated by up to 30 % because transaction costs were not included.     

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation plus (REDD+) in the Philippines: will it make a difference in financing forest development?

There is a high level of interest in reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation plus (REDD+) carbon (C) financing as a way to accelerate forest conservation and development. However, there is very limited information on the potential costs and benefits of REDD+ in developing countries like the Philippines. In this paper, we estimated the range of likely financial benefits of REDD+ implementation in the country under various forest degradation and mitigation scenarios. Our findings show that reducing the rate of forest degradation by a modest 5 to 15 % annually while increasing the doubling the rate of reforestation to 1.5 % annually could reduce C emissions by up to about 60 million t C by 2030. These are equivalent to US$ 97 to 417 million of mean C credits annually at US$ 5 per ton C. These figures are much higher than the total budget of the government and official development assistance for forestry activities in the country which amounted to US$ 46 million in 2005 and US$ 12 million in 2006, respectively. We conclude that REDD+ C credits could be a significant source of financing for forestry projects in developing countries like the Philippines.     

Impacts of climate change on savannah woodland biomass carbon density and water-use: a modelling study of the Sudanese gum belt region

This paper analyzes potential impacts of climate change on biomass carbon (C) density and water-use (actual evapotranspiration, AET) of savannah woodlands in Sudan. Climate change scenarios were developed from five General Circulation Models (GCMs; CGCM2, CSIRO2, ECHam4, HadCM3 and PCM) under two IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) emission scenarios (A1FI and B1). Baseline (1961-90) climate and climate change scenarios for 2080s for eight map sheet grids (1° latitude x 1.5° longitude) were constructed. Compared to baseline values, mean annual precipitation (MAP) showed both increases (+112 to +221 mm) and decreases (?13 to ?188 mm) but mean annual temperature (MAT) only showed increases (+1.2 to +8.3 °C). Baseline biomass C densities showed an exponential relationship with MAP (y?=?6.798 e ^0.0054x, R²?=?0.70). Depending on climate change MAP, biomass C densities increased (+14 to +241 g C m^?2) or decreased (?1 to ?148 g?C m^?2). However, because of uncertainty in biomass C density estimates, the changes were only significant (P <0.05) for some of the climate change scenarios and for grids with MAP >260 mm. Under A1FI emission scenarios, only HadCM3 did not have a significant effect while under B1 emission scenarios, only CGCM2 and ECHam4 had a significant effect on biomass C density. AET also showed both increases (+100 to +145 mm for vertisols and +82 to +197 mm for arenosols) and decreases (?12 to ?178 mm for vertisols and ?12 to ?132 mm for arenosols). The largest relative changes in AET (up to 31 %) were associated with grids receiving the lowest rainfall. Thus, even if MAP increases across the study region, the increase will have little impact on biomass levels in the driest areas of the region, emphasizing the need for improved management and use of savannah woodlands.     

Reducing emissions from land use in Indonesia: motivation,policy instruments and expected funding streams

Land-based emissions of carbon dioxide derive from the interface of forest and agriculture. Emission estimates require harmonization across forest and non-forest data sources. Furthermore, emission reduction requires understanding of the linked causes and policy levers between agriculture and forestry. The institutional forestry traditions dominated the emergence of the discourse on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) while more holistic perspectives on land-based emissions, including agriculture, found a home in international recognition for Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). We tested the hypothesis that, at least for Indonesia, the NAMA framework provides opportunities to resolve issues that REDD+ alone cannot address. We reviewed progress on five major challenges identified in 2007 by the Indonesian Forest Climate Alliance: 1) scope and ‘forest’ definition; 2) ownership and tenurial rights; 3) multiplicity and interconnectedness of drivers; 4) peatland issues across forest and non-forest land categories; and 5) fairness and efficiency of benefit-distribution mechanisms across conservation, degradation and restoration phases of tree-cover transition. Results indicate that the two policy instruments developed in parallel with competition rather than synergy. Three of the REDD+ challenges can be resolved by treating REDD+ as a subset of the NAMA and national emission reduction plans for Indonesia. We conclude that two issues, rights and benefit distribution, remain a major challenge, and require progress on a motivational pyramid of policy and polycentric governance. National interest in retaining global palm oil exports gained priority over expectations of REDD forest rents. Genuine concerns over climate change motivate a small but influential part of the ongoing debate.     

Harnessing the climate commons: an agent-based modelling approach to making reducing emission from deforestation and degradation (REDD)+work

Humans have created a worldwide tragedy through free access to the global common atmosphere. The Conference of the Parties (COP) on climate change increased political commitment to reduce emission from deforestation and degradation and to enhance carbon stocks (REDD+). However, government sectors, political actors, business groups, civil societies, tree growers and other interest groups at different levels may support or reject REDD+. The paper used Arena-Actor-Institution concept to understand REDD+and provides agent-based modeling approach to harnessing its processes. The model explores: (a) how providers are likely to decrease or increase carbon stocks on their landscapes under ‘business as usual’ institutions; (b) how they are likely to negotiate with potential buyers with regards to the involvement of brokers (governments or nongovernmental organizations); and (c) how altruism and collaboration can affect the affectivity of REDD+. The model was developed as a spatially explicit model to consider the complexity of REDD+target landscapes. The simulation results are examined against the 3E+criteria, i.e. effectiveness in carbon emission reduction, cost efficiency and equity among involved stakeholders and co-benefit of other activities. This study took the Jambi landscape in Indonesia as a case. The results explain how REDD+agreement areas increase with higher carbon prices, e.g. US$25 or US$35. However, the simulation also shows that even with low carbon prices GHG emissions will decrease if the altruism degree and collective actions of the actors increases. The paper describes institutional arrangements which would help to harness the global commons of climate change.     

苏州市大气细颗粒物(PM2.5)工业源排放清单

通过发放调查表、现场咨询等形式,获得苏州市2012年工业企业基本信息,参照国内外已有研究成果,确定排放因子,并根据实际情况对钢铁行业进行了系数修订,得到苏州市工业源大气细颗粒物排放清单.结果表明:苏州地区工业源PM_(2.5)排放总量约为6.57×10~4t,工艺过程源和固定燃烧源分别占94%和6%;张家港地区贡献率最大,为51%,其次为常熟13.8%;姑苏区贡献率最小,为0.13%;苏州市平均排放强度为10.42 t·km~(-2),张家港排放强度最大,达到了43.57 t·km~(-2),其次为新区12.38 t·km~(-2);钢铁与炼焦、火电、水泥行业是PM_(2.5)的主要贡献者,分别为50%、17%和14%;空间分布显示苏州北部相对细颗粒污染较大,重点企业多集中在张家港、常熟地区,东部污染较少.     

2015~2020年厦漳泉地区大气氨排放清单及分布特征

收集厦漳泉地区各类大气氨排放源的区县活动水平,基于排放因子法建立了2017年大气氨排放清单（1 km×1 km）,同时对2015~2020年大气氨排放趋势进行了分析.结果表明,厦漳泉2017年大气氨排放量为27.40 kt,其中畜禽养殖、农田生态系统、人体排放、燃料燃烧和废物处理占排放总量的比例分别为42.48%、22.04%、14.71%、7.08%和5.69%.大气氨排放密度顺序为：厦门（1.94 t ·km^-2）>泉州（1.07 t ·km^-2）>漳州（0.95 t ·km^-2）,高值区主要分布于人口集中的沿海城区和畜禽养殖业与种植业发达的内陆乡镇地区,氨排放量月度分布与温度变化规律一致.受不同地市经济结构和发展水平的影响,2015~2020年泉州市氨排放表现为下降,而厦门和漳州两市氨排放变化存在一定的波动,氨排放强度整体呈现随人均GDP上升而下降的趋势.     

西安市人为源一次PM2.5排放清单及减排潜力研究

颗粒物是影响西安市环境空气质量的主要因子.结合《西安统计年鉴2015》《2014年环境统计数据》和现场调查等确定了西安市各类PM_2.5排放源的活动水平数据,采用物料衡算法和排放因子法测算了西安市2014年大气中PM_2.5的年排放总量,并从行业和区域角度详细分析了PM_2.5的排放贡献率.在此基础上,以2014年为基准年,依据西安市地方政策和各行业最新排放标准,对PM_2.5的减排潜力进行了预测.结果表明:2014年西安市人为源一次PM_2.5排放总量为33 660.1 t,其中,固定燃烧源、工艺过程源、移动源、生物质燃烧源、扬尘源和餐饮源的贡献率分别为27.6%、23.5%、6.8%、10.7%、31.1%和0.3%.道路扬尘、窑炉和发电为西安市PM_2.5的重点排放行业,其PM_2.5排放量分别占排放总量的21.4%、20.3%和11.0%.各区县中,鄠邑区、灞桥区和未央区的PM_2.5排放量较高,其贡献率分别为15.7%、13.7%和12.7%;新城区PM_2.5排放量最小,为297.8 t/a.2014年西安市PM_2.5平均排放强度为2.07 t/km2,其中,碑林区排放强度（16.80 t/km2）最大,高陵区（0.48 t/km2）最小.按照《西安市2017年"铁腕治霾保卫蓝天"工作实施方案》等新政策的规定,预测在新的排放标准下西安市PM_2.5排放量将比2014年削减63.7%.研究显示,固定燃烧源、工艺过程源和生物质燃烧源有较大的减排潜力.      

Benefits of tropical forest management under the new climate change agreement—a case study in Cambodia

Promoting sustainable forest management as part of the reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation in developing countries (REDD)-plus mechanism in the Copenhagen Accord of December 2009 implies that tropical forests will no longer be ignored in the new climate change agreement. As new financial incentives are pledged, costs and revenues on a 1-ha tract of tropical forestland being managed or cleared for other land use options need to be assessed so that appropriate compensation measures can be proposed. Cambodia's highly stocked evergreen forest, which has experienced rapid degradation and deforestation, will be the first priority forest to be managed if financial incentives through a carbon payment scheme are available. By analyzing forest inventory data, we assessed the revenues and costs for managing a hypothetical 1 ha of forestland against six land use options: business-as-usual timber harvesting (BAU-timber), forest management under the REDD-plus mechanism, forest-to-teak plantation, forest-to-acacia plantation, forest-to-rubber plantation, and forest-to-oil palm plantation. We determined annual equivalent values for each option, and the BAU-timber and REDD-plus management options were the highest, with both options influenced by logging costs and timber price. Financial incentives should be provided at a level that would allow continuation of sustainable logging and be attractive to REDD-plus project developers.     

林业REDD~+机制对中国低碳经济的启示——以环境与资源保护法为视角

森林固碳不仅成本低,并且还具有多种生态效益和巨大的经济、社会效益。发展碳汇林业,加强以林业为主的生态保护和建设,充分发挥森林生态系统作为生物措施对应对气候变化的作用显得尤为重要,也更具有长远和治本的意义。REDD+机制的提出,为广大发展中国家在共同但有区别的原则下参与全球气候变化活动带来了新的活力,也为中国的低碳经济带来了政策和法律的启示。但该机制对不同的国家有不同的内涵,国家责任不同,利益不同,代价亦不同,中国需持谨慎态度制定与之相关的政策法律。     

A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based approach to adaptation to regional climate change: a case study of Okutama-machi,Tokyo, Japan

Recently, local governments have an increasing need to take extensive and effective local measures to adapt to regional climate change, but have difficulty knowing how and when to adapt to such change. This study aims: 1) to characterize an efficient and cost-effective database management tool (DMT) for developing a Geographic Information System (GIS) based approach to using observed and projected data, for decision-making by non-expert government authorities, and 2) to document how DMT can be used to provide specialized yet understandable climate change information to assist local decision-makers in clarifying regional priorities within a wide array of adaptation options. The DMT combines climate change mapping, statistical GIS, and a vulnerability assessment. Okutama-machi, a 225.63 km² sparsely populated mountainous region (2012 population 5,856) northwest of Tokyo, Japan, was chosen for this pilot study. In this paper, the most recent regional climate projections (5 km resolution) are transcribed into an understandable form for use by non-expert citizens who use the GIS-based DMT. Results illustrate qualitative agreement in projection of summer daily mean temperatures; the mean temperature increase at Okutama-machi is the greatest of any area in Tokyo. In comparing near future and future conditions, August monthly mean temperature will increase more than 0.7–0.9 °C and 2.8–2.9 °C, and monthly precipitation by 50 % and 25–41 %, respectively. However, the root mean square (RMS) errors and bias of percentage change for monthly precipitation in summertime are 26.8 % and 4.3 %, respectively. These data provide an early warning and have implications for local climate policy response.     

The impact of climate change under different thinning regimes on carbon sequestration in a German forest district

The objective of this paper is to assess how much carbon (C) is currently stored in a forest district in Thuringia, Germany, and how the carbon stocks will develop up to the year 2099 with a changing climate and under various management regimes (including no management), with different assumptions about carbon dioxide (CO₂) fertilization effects. We applied the process-based model 4C and a wood product model to a forest district in Germany and evaluated both models for the period from 2002 to 2010, based on forest inventory data for the stands in the district. Then, we simulated the growth of the stands in the forest district under three different realizations of a climate change scenario, combined with different management regimes. Our simulations show that in 2099, between 630 and 1149 t C ha^?1 will be stored in this district. The simulations also showed that climate change affects carbon sequestration. The no management strategy sequestered the highest amount of carbon (8.7 t C ha^?1 year^?1), which was greater than the management regimes. In the model, the possible fertilization effect of CO₂ is an important factor. However, forest management remains the determining factor in this forest district.     

Meeting emission targets under uncertainty—the case of Finnish non-emission-trading sector

The European Union (EU) has set a target to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at least 10 % below the 2005 levels by 2020 in the non-Emission Trading Sector (non-ETS). As part of this, each Member State has a binding national emission limitation target for the non-ETS sector. Finland’s target, examined as a case study in this paper, is to reduce emissions at least 16 % below 2005 levels by 2020. The objective of this study is to find cost optimal mitigation portfolios that meet Finland’s reduction target and to analyze the risks of not attaining the emission target or exceeding the assumed costs. The question was addressed with a stochastic optimization model, Stochastic Optimization of non-ETS Emissions (SONETS) selecting separate mitigation measures that meet the target on expectation. The results show that optimal portfolios include relatively high uncertainty both in costs and achieved reductions. The prices of crude oil and diesel, and the abatement cost of reducing hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions seem to account for the majority of uncertainty regarding total costs. The baseline predictions for various non-ETS subsectors (such as transport and agriculture) were found to have the greatest contribution to the uncertainty of attaining emission target. The results also show that some abatement actions are chosen in nearly all efficient portfolios, while other actions are seldom chosen. For example replacing oil burners in the end of technical life time or recovery of methane (CH₄) from waste are often chosen whereas ban of landfilling of organic waste is chosen extremely seldom. It also seems that the results are somewhat sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of the interdependencies of mitigation measures.     

兰州市表土黑碳分布特征与来源初探

为探究兰州市城市表土中黑碳(Black Carbon,简称BC)的分布特征及其来源,在兰州市主城区(城关区、七里河区、安宁区和西固区)道路沿线绿化带采集了95个表层(0~5 cm)土壤样品,并使用重铬酸钾氧化法测定其黑碳含量.结果表明:兰州市表土黑碳含量在1.02~74.27g·kg~(-1)之间,黑碳含量空间分布表现为城关区七里河区西固区安宁区,高值区域主要集中在工厂周围和交通密集区.进一步分析发现,黑碳与有机碳(Organic Carbon,简称OC)比值(BC/OC)的平均值为0.34;黑碳与有机碳含量及砷(As)、铜(Cu)、铅(Pb)、锌(Zn)等重金属元素含量显著相关.研究表明,兰州市表土中黑碳主要来源于本地交通排放和局部工业活动过程中化石燃料燃烧和工业粉尘沉积.     

Drivers of deforestation and REDD+ benefit-sharing: A meta-analysis of the (missing) link

REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and related forest activities) is a climate change mitigation mechanism currently being negotiated under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It calls for developed countries to financially support developing countries for their actions to reduce forest-sector carbon emissions. In this paper, we undertake a meta-analysis of the links, if any, between multiple and diverse drivers of deforestation operating at different levels and the benefits accruing from and being shared through REDD+ projects. We do so by assessing the nature of this link in (a) scholarly analysis, through an in-depth analysis of the posited relationship between drivers and REDD+ benefit-sharing, as examined in the peer-reviewed literature; and (b) in policy practice, through analysing how this link is being conceptualised and operationalised, if at all, in REDD+ project design documents. Our meta-analysis suggests that while some local, direct drivers and a few regional indirect drivers of deforestation and forest degradation are being targeted by specific REDD+ interventions and associated benefit-sharing mechanisms at the project-level, most national and international indirect drivers are not. We conclude that the growing academic analyses of REDD+ projects do not (as yet) advance viable theories of change, i.e. there is currently little focus on how REDD+ benefits could play a transformative role in catalysing action on drivers.