基于不同评估方法的养殖池塘富营养化环境成本研究——以上海青浦地区常规鱼类养殖池塘为例

采用物料平衡法、置换成本法、条件价值评估法（CVM）和COD价格法对池塘养殖环境成本进行评估。结果显示,基于4种评估方法估算得到的池塘养殖环境成本由大到小依次为置换成本法（4 400元.a-1.hm-2）、COD价格法（4 191.99元.a-1.hm-2）、物料平衡法（3 925.76元.a-1.hm-2）和CVM法（2 007.8元.a-1.hm-2）,认为在不考虑时间和经济成本的前提下,基于COD价格法测算得到的结果可能最接近于环境成本的真实值。采用4种评估方法测得的环境成本占常规鱼类养殖经济总收益的6%～14%,表明采取相关措施防治水产养殖环境污染很有必要。     

Does marginal price matter? A regression discontinuity approach to estimating water demand

Although complex pricing schedules are increasingly common among water and electricity providers, it is difficult to determine whether consumers respond to changes in the pricing schedule because price changes are often confounded with simultaneous demand shocks or non-price policies. To overcome this challenge, we exploit a natural experiment - the introduction of a third price block in an increasing block pricing schedule for water - in Santa Cruz, California. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that consumers do respond to changes in marginal price. Doubling marginal price leads to a 12% decrease in water use (500 cubic feet per bill) among high-use households.     

Do you not like Pigou, or do you not understand him? Tax aversion and revenue recycling in the lab

Tax-aversion reduces the likelihood that price rationing can be a politically viable tool for environmental protection. We examine the case of the classic Pigouvian tax to control a negative externality, and consider how recycling the revenues, labeling of the tax and information about its purpose affects the support for taxation. We test the support for taxation within a single-price market experiment, in which purchases by some buyers impose external costs on others. Observing behavior consistent with tax-aversion, we also find that recycling the revenues to more narrowly targeted groups seems to increase support for taxation. In the absence of narrow revenue recycling, labeling a Pigouvian instrument as a ‘tax’ may significantly lower the likelihood of voter support.     

Unintended consequences of price controls: An application to allowance markets

Price controls established in a cap-and-trade allowance market are intended to reduce cost uncertainty by constraining allowance prices between a ceiling and floor; however, they could provide opportunities for strategic actions by firms that would lower government revenue and increase emissions. In particular, when the ceiling price is supported by introducing new allowances into the market, firms could choose to buy allowances at the ceiling price, regardless of the prevailing market price, in order to lower the equilibrium price of all allowances. Those purchases could either be transacted by firms intending to manipulate the market price or be induced through the introduction of inaccurate information about the cost of emissions abatement. Theory and simulations using allowance elasticity estimates for U.S. firms suggest that the manipulation could be profitable under the stylized setting and assumptions evaluated in the paper, although in practice many other conditions will determine its use.     

Conservation Planning when Costs Are Uncertain

Abstract: Spatially explicit information on the financial costs of conservation actions can improve the ability of conservation planning to achieve ecological and economic objectives, but the magnitude of this improvement may depend on the accuracy of the cost estimates. Data on costs of conservation actions are inherently uncertain. For example, the cost of purchasing a property for addition to a protected‐area network depends on the individual landholder's preferences, values, and aspirations, all of which vary in space and time, and the effect of this uncertainty on the conservation priority of a site is relatively untested. We investigated the sensitivity of the conservation priority of sites to uncertainty in cost estimates. We explored scenarios for expanding (four‐fold) the protected‐area network in Queensland, Australia to represent a range of vegetation types, species, and abiotic environments, while minimizing the cost of purchasing new properties. We estimated property costs for 17, 790 10 × 10 km sites with data on unimproved land values. We systematically changed property costs and noted how these changes affected conservation priority of a site. The sensitivity of the priority of a site to changes in cost data was largely dependent on a site's importance for meeting conservation targets. Sites that were essential or unimportant for meeting targets maintained high or low priorities, respectively, regardless of cost estimates. Sites of intermediate conservation priority were sensitive to property costs and represented the best option for efficiency gains, especially if they could be purchased at a lower price than anticipated. Thus, uncertainty in cost estimates did not impede the use of cost data in conservation planning, and information on the sensitivity of the conservation priority of a site to estimates of the price of land can be used to inform strategic conservation planning before the actual price of the land is known.     

The production of lumber using chainsaws in Guyana

SUMMARY

The structure, conduct and performance, and the environmental impacts of the chainsaw lumber production sector in Guyana are investigated. Chainsaws are a highly mobile lumber technology that is used to rip or produce lumber within the forest. Chainsaw lumbering operations have become the dominant lumber producer for the domestic market. Production costs are only 53% of wholesale lumber prices. On a ms basis, chainsaw operations' net profit is 80% of the gross price paid for logs at sawmills and more than twice the profit of firms engaged in the harvesting and transportation of logs to sawmills. Sawmills recognize this cost advantage and are increasingly using chainsaws in the production of lumber.

The handling and transportation of chainsawn lumber within the forest is environmentally less damaging than log production. The log recovery rate is 10–15% for chainsaw operations, as compared to the sawmill average of 40–45%. Log residue from chainsaw operations is left within the forest which promotes faster forest regrowth, while that at sawmills is wasted. Chainsaw operations harvest immature trees, engage in the harvesting of selective species, over-harvest trees per unit area of land, and engage in frequent reentry of the forest. Because of these practices, the chainsaw lumber sector is not environmentally sustainable and will require regulation. Policies that follow a non-market solution will be required in regulation.     

On equilibrium in resource markets with scale economies and stochastic prices

In this paper, I show the existence and the characteristics of equilibrium in a non-renewable resource market where extraction costs are non-convex and market price is subject to stochastic shocks, an empirically relevant setting. In my model firms may be motivated to hold inventories to facilitate production smoothing, which allows them to continue producing at a smooth pace at any instant when extraction ceases, e.g. when reserves are exhausted. This aspect of the model then supports a competitive equilibrium in the presence of non-convex costs. Casual empirical evidence is provided that supports the central features of my model for a variety of non-renewable resources, lending credence to the explanation for equilibrium I propose.     

Demand for environmental quality information and household response: Evidence from well-water arsenic testing

Access to information about environmental quality may facilitate low-cost preventive measures that protect human health. In this paper, we study the demand for information about environmental quality and the behavioral response to the information provided. With a field experiment conducted in Bihar (India), we estimate the price sensitivity of demand for diagnostic testing of drinking water wells for arsenic of natural origin – a serious threat to the health of tens of millions of villagers across South and Southeast Asia. Demand is substantial but sensitive to price; uptake falls from 68% to 31% of households over our price range (Rs. 10 to Rs. 50). We further assess how households respond to information regarding the contamination level in their wells. About one-third of households with unsafe wells switch to a safer water source. Finally, we demonstrate that households that received adverse test outcomes are more likely to selectively forget test results, and proactively remove evidence of their wells' arsenic status.     

The socially optimal recycling rate: Evidence from Japan

This paper estimates the average social cost of municipal waste management as a function of the recycling rate. Social costs include all municipal costs and revenues, costs to recycling households to prepare materials estimated with an original method, external disposal costs, and external recycling benefits. Results suggest average social costs are minimized with recycling rates well below observed and mandated levels in Japan. Cost-minimizing municipalities are estimated to recycle less than the optimal rate. These results are robust to changes in the components of social costs, indicating that Japan and perhaps other developed countries may be setting inefficiently high recycling goals.     

Optimal environmental policy for waste disposal and recycling when firms are not compliant

We investigate a model that considers disposal and recycling activities after the consumption of products. In the field, the deposit–refund (D–R) policy has been considered as an ideal policy for internalizing disposal costs, which can result in the realization of the first-best policy. However, the possibility of firms' illegal disposal has been neglected. We introduce a monitoring cost to prevent firms from disposing of collected residuals illegally and induce the second-best D–R policy. We find that the relation between the monitoring problem for firms and the price of the recycling market brings about a variation in the optimal level of the refunds (which is typically smaller than the first-best level). Further, we investigate an alternative policy that requires producers to take-back residuals and show how this policy works equivalently to the second-best D–R policy by applying the theory of the tradable rights market.     

Environmental cost of using poor decision metrics to prioritize environmental projects

Conservation decision makers commonly use project‐scoring metrics that are inconsistent with theory on optimal ranking of projects. As a result, there may often be a loss of environmental benefits. We estimated the magnitudes of these losses for various metrics that deviate from theory in ways that are common in practice. These metrics included cases where relevant variables were omitted from the benefits metric, project costs were omitted, and benefits were calculated using a faulty functional form. We estimated distributions of parameters from 129 environmental projects from Australia, New Zealand, and Italy for which detailed analyses had been completed previously. The cost of using poor prioritization metrics (in terms of lost environmental values) was often high—up to 80% in the scenarios we examined. The cost in percentage terms was greater when the budget was smaller. The most costly errors were omitting information about environmental values (up to 31% loss of environmental values), omitting project costs (up to 35% loss), omitting the effectiveness of management actions (up to 9% loss), and using a weighted‐additive decision metric for variables that should be multiplied (up to 23% loss). The latter 3 are errors that occur commonly in real‐world decision metrics, in combination often reducing potential benefits from conservation investments by 30–50%. Uncertainty about parameter values also reduced the benefits from investments in conservation projects but often not by as much as faulty prioritization metrics.     

Do lower electricity storage costs reduce greenhouse gas emissions?

In the electricity sector, innovation in large-scale storage is anticipated to reduce costs and improve performance. The effect on greenhouse gas emissions of lower storage costs depends on the interactions between storage and the entire grid. The literature has disagreed on the role of storage in reducing emissions. In this paper we present a stylized model, which suggests that the effect of storage costs on emissions depends on the supply responsiveness of both fossil and renewable generators. Under common conditions in the United States, lower storage costs are more likely to reduce emissions when wind investment responds to equilibrium electricity prices and when solar investment does not. Simulations of a computational model of grid investment and operation confirm these intuitions. Moreover, because of its effect on coal and natural gas–fired supply responsiveness, introducing a carbon dioxide emissions price may increase the likelihood that lower storage costs reduce emissions.     

Carbon taxation,OPEC and the end of oil

I develop a differential game between an oil cartel and an importer investing in research and development (R&D) to reduce the cost of a green substitute to oil. In equilibrium, the cartel is forced to deter the substitute, which thus imposes a price ceiling falling over time. Credible carbon taxes are below the Pigovian level, implying the importer cannot internalise the full pollution externality, much less capture resource rents. Without carbon pricing, the importer curtails long-run pollution using a costly R&D programme. Normatively, climate policy will be more expensive if relying on green R&D programmes only.     

A free lunch in the commons

We derive conditions under which raising costs through a regulatory constraint or a fully expropriated tax can increase the profits arising from a common-pool resource. The basic model assumes a fixed number of identical agents with linear costs selling in a single period at an exogenous price. A necessary and sufficient condition for a cost increase to be profitable is that aggregate output from the resource be locally convex in aggregate effort. We also show that cost increases can be profitable even if price is endogenous, agents are heterogeneous, entry is costless, or agents are playing a Markov-perfect equilibrium of a dynamic game. We also discuss more general welfare implications of the result along with its relation to existing results for a Cournot oligopoly.     

Incentives and prices in an emissions trading scheme with updating

Emissions trading schemes where allocations are based on updated baseline emissions give firms less incentive to reduce emissions for a given quota (or allowance) price. Nevertheless, according to Böhringer and Lange [On the design of optimal grandfathering schemes for emission allowances, Europ. Econ. Rev. 49 (2005) 2041–2055], such allocation schemes are cost-effective if the system is closed and allocation rules are identical across firms. In this paper, we show that the cost-effective solution may be infeasible if marginal abatement costs grow too fast. Moreover, if a price cap or banking/borrowing is introduced, the abatement profile is no longer the same as in the case with an auction (or lump-sum allocation). In addition, we show that with allocation based on updated emissions, the quota price will always exceed marginal abatement costs, possibly misguiding policy makers and investors about abatement costs. Numerical simulations indicate that the quota price most likely will be several times higher than marginal abatement costs, unless a significant share of allowances is auctioned.     

Optimization models for environmental pollution control: A synthesis

The optimization models presented here represent a synthesis between input-output analysis and mathematical programming models for environmental pollution control. The pivotal construct is a social cost for each unit of consumption; it is derived from the input-output analysis and is used in the objective function of the mathematical programming models which seek to optimize the final value of bill of goods and bads. The theory of optimization with relative bounded variables in nonlinear programming is developed and utilized.     

Alternatives for Managing Drought: A Comparative Cost Analysis

The question addressed by this study is how a large urban water district can best respond to a drought. Using a computer model of a representative district, we find that a combination of conjunctive use and water marketing is well over an order of magnitude cheaper than the traditional alternative of constructing new storage capacity. The indicated cost saving can be explained by the intermittent nature of the transfer, corresponding to the intermittent demand. Comparing costs to benefits, the consumer-surplus loss otherwise entailed by raising prices to cut back on consumption in the event of a drought, we find that construction of new storage does not pass a benefit/cost test, but introduction of conjunctive use/water marketing does.     

The value of information for integrated assessment models of climate change

We estimate the value of information (VOI) for three key parameters of climate integrated assessment models (IAMs): marginal damages at low temperature anomalies, marginal damages at high temperature anomalies, and equilibrium climate sensitivity. Most empirical studies of climate damages have examined temperature anomalies up to 3 °C, while some recent theoretical studies emphasize the risks of “climate catastrophes,” which depend on climate sensitivity and on marginal damages at higher temperature anomalies. We use a new IAM to estimate the VOI for each parameter over a range of assumed levels of study precision based on prior probability distributions calibrated using results from previous studies. We measure the VOI as the maximum fixed fraction of consumption that a social planner would be willing to pay to conduct a new study before setting a carbon tax. Our central results suggest that the VOI is greatest for marginal damages at high temperature anomalies.     

Temperature effects on mortality and household adaptation: Evidence from China

This paper examines the effects of extreme temperatures on mortality rates, using random year-to-year variation in temperature based on county-level panel data from China. The analysis finds a robust, U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality rates, indicating that extremely cold or hot temperatures lead to excess deaths. The heat-related (cold-related) effect is 3.5 times (3.2 times) as large as previous findings that used U.S. data, and it is especially large for the elderly population, mainly due to excess deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases. Applying these results to climate change predictions from Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model shows that by 2061–2080 the annual mortality rate is likely to increase by 14.2% if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century, the estimated health cost of which is around 0.98 trillion Chinese Yuan per year. The paper also explores households’ adaptation behaviors to extreme temperatures. It finds that although urban households adaptively increase energy consumption when they are exposed to cold temperatures and purchase more air conditioners on hot and cold days, rural households are unresponsive to temperature fluctuations. This finding implies that rural people may be more resource constrained and suffer more when extreme temperatures occur.