Carbon dioxide direct air capture for effective climate change mitigation based on renewable electricity: a new type of energy system sector coupling

Pathways for achieving the 1.5–2 °C global temperature moderation target imply a massive scaling of carbon dioxide (CO₂) removal technologies, in particular in the 2040s and onwards. CO₂ direct air capture (DAC) is among the most promising negative emission technologies (NETs). The energy demands for low-temperature solid-sorbent DAC are mainly heat at around 100 °C and electricity, which lead to sustainably operated DAC systems based on low-cost renewable electricity and heat pumps for the heat supply. This analysis is carried out for the case of the Maghreb region, which enjoys abundantly available low-cost renewable energy resources. The energy transition results for the Maghreb region lead to a solar photovoltaic (PV)-dominated energy supply with some wind energy contribution. DAC systems will need the same energy supply structure. The research investigates the levelised cost of CO₂ DAC (LCOD) in high spatial resolution and is based on full hourly modelling for the Maghreb region. The key results are LCOD of about 55 €/t_CO2 in 2050 with a further cost reduction potential of up to 50%. The area demand is considered and concluded to be negligible. Major conclusions for CO₂ removal as a new energy sector are drawn. Key options for a global climate change mitigation strategy are first an energy transition towards renewable energy and second NETs for achieving the targets of the Paris Agreement.

     

GHG emission pathways until 2300 for the 1.5 °C temperature rise target and the mitigation costs achieving the pathways

The Paris Agreement of the 21st Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change refers to the 1.5 °C target as well as the 2 °C target, and it is important to estimate the emission pathways and mitigation measures for the 1.5 °C target for the discussions on the target. The possible emission pathways vary widely because of the uncertainties involved. We assumed three kinds of temperature trajectories for meeting below 1.5 °C compared with the pre-industrial level, and three numbers for the climate sensitivity. The first trajectory remains below 1.5 °C all the time until 2300, the second overshoots but returns to below 1.5 °C by 2100, and the third overshoots but returns to below 1.5 °C by 2300. There are large differences in terms of 2030 emissions between the estimate from the submitted Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and any of assessed emission pathways involving climate sensitivity of 3.0 °C or higher, and high emission reduction costs were estimated, even for 2030. With climate sensitivity of 2.5 °C, only the third trajectory exhibits consistent emissions in 2030 with the NDCs. However, this case also appears very difficult to achieve, requiring enormous amounts of negative emissions after the middle of this century toward 2300. A climate mitigation strategy aiming for the 1.5 °C target will be debatable, because we face serious difficulties in near- or/and long-term for all the possible emission pathways, and therefore, we should rather focus on actual emission reduction activities than on the 1.5 °C target with poor feasibility.     

Ecological restoration as a strategy for mitigating and adapting to climate change: lessons and challenges from Brazil

Climate change is a global phenomenon that affects biophysical systems and human well-being. The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change entered into force in 2016 with the objective of strengthening the global response to climate change by keeping global temperature rise this century well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 °C. The agreement requires all Parties to submit their “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) and to strengthen these efforts in the years ahead. Reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is an important strategy for mitigating climate change, particularly in developing countries with large forests. Extensive tropical forest loss and degradation have increased awareness at the international level of the need to undertake large-scale ecological restoration, highlighting the need to identify cases in which restoration strategies can contribute to mitigation and adaptation. Here we consider Brazil as a case study to evaluate the benefits and challenges of implementing large-scale restoration programs in developing countries. The Brazilian NDC included the target of restoring and reforesting 12 million hectares of forests for multiple uses by 2030. Restoration of native vegetation is one of the foundations of sustainable rural development in Brazil and should consider multiple purposes, from biodiversity and ecosystem services conservation to social and economic development. However, ecological restoration still presents substantial challenges for tropical and mega-diverse countries, including the need to develop plans that are technically and financially feasible, as well as public policies and monitoring instruments that can assess effectiveness. The planning, execution, and monitoring of restoration efforts strongly depend on the context and the diagnosis of the area with respect to reference ecosystems (e.g., forests, savannas, grasslands, wetlands). In addition, poor integration of climate change policies at the national and subnational levels and with other sectorial policies constrains the large-scale implementation of restoration programs. The case of Brazil shows that slowing deforestation is possible; however, this analysis highlights the need for increased national commitment and international support for actions that require large-scale transformations of the forest sector regarding ecosystem restoration efforts. Scaling up the ambitions and actions of the Paris Agreement implies the need for a global framework that recognizes landscape restoration as a cost-effective nature-based solution and that supports countries in addressing their remaining needs, challenges, and barriers.

     

An empirical analysis of energy efficiency measures applicable to cities,regions, and local governments,based on the case of South Korea’s local energy saving program

As highlighted in the outcome of the Paris Agreement at the 21st Conference of Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change there has been a recent push for the stronger mitigation actions of cities, regions, and local governments. Energy efficiency is a tool that can be leveraged by not only industry or national governments but also cities, regions, and local governments for mitigation purposes. However, studies on energy efficiency as a mitigation tool thus far have focused on the national or transnational scale, and on certain sectors of industry. The purpose of this paper is to find the most cost-efficient energy efficiency measures (EEMs) at the city, region, and local government level. To that end, this paper examines the yearly energy savings and greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction intensity, as well as energy savings and GHG reduction efficiency, in the case of EEMs conducted by South Korean local governments. Yearly energy savings intensity and GHG reduction intensity are estimated to be in the range of 0.094～0.375 tonne of oil equivalent (TOE)/M-KRW (million Korean won) and 0.287～1.180 tCO2e/M-KRW. Results show that inverter installation at water and sewage treatment plants and improvement of pump efficiency are the most cost-efficient EEMs. Moreover, energy savings efficiency and GHG reduction efficiency are within the range of 18.29～45.31 %, at an average of 30.5 % GHG reduction potential. If this reduction potential is applied to the buildings and facilities regulated and run by cities/local governments, there is a worldwide reduction potential of 1.023 billion tCO₂ compared to 2020 business as usual levels.     

The impact of the Clean Development Mechanism on developing countries’ commitment to mitigate climate change and its implications for the future

The objective of this paper is to examine the mitigation of climate change using the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) from the perspective of developing countries. The effects of the CDM on developing countries’ efforts to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) pledged under the Paris Agreement (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC], 21st Conference of the Parties, Paris, France) are investigated. Data analysis reveals that the intensive hosting of CDM projects and the resultant higher marginal abatement costs led to fewer efforts by developing countries to mitigate climate change. A theoretical model from the literature of “low-hanging fruits” is applied to determine if rising prices of the CDM can be expected in the future. The results indicate that the benefits for developing countries must increase so as to keep the CDM attractive for them in an environment where they also have reduction commitments. To further ensure the effectiveness of the CDM under the Paris Agreement, policy should ensure that developing countries actually charge higher prices and, at the same time, contribute adequately to the global goal of GHG reductions. To this end, developing countries should be permitted to demand benefits that lie outside the current scope of the CDM, and non-compliance with their climate targets should also be sanctioned. In addition, fostering sustainable development should become more attractive for developed countries without the CDM, e.g., through sustainability labels, so as to reduce the trade-off for developing countries between the benefits of the CDM and compliance with their commitments to mitigate climate change.

     

Co-benefits of post-2012 global climate mitigation policies

This paper provides an analysis of co-benefits for traditional air pollutants made possible through global climate policies using the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model in the time horizon up to 2050. The impact analysis is based on projections of energy consumption provided by the Prospective Outlook for the Long term Energy System (POLES) model for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2°C climate policy scenario which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. Outcomes of the analysis are reported globally and for key world regions: the European Union (EU), China, India and the United States. The assessment takes into account current air pollution control legislation in each country. Expenditures on air pollution control under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 250 billion € when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of financial co-benefits estimated world-wide in this study by 2050 occur in China, while an annual cost saving of 35 billion (Euros) € is estimated for the EU if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel. Health impacts of air pollution are quantified in terms of loss of life expectancy related to the exposure from anthropogenic emissions of fine particles, as well as in terms of premature mortality due to ground-level ozone. For example in China, current ambient concentrations of particulate matter are responsible for about 40 months-losses in the average life expectancy. In 2050, the climate strategies reduce this indicator by 50 %. Decrease of ozone concentrations estimated for the climate scenario might save nearly 20,000 cases of premature death per year. Similarly significant are reductions of impacts on ecosystems due to acidification and eutrophication.     

Assessing high-impact spots of climate change: spatial yield simulations with Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model

Drybeans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) are an important subsistence crop in Central America. Future climate change may threaten drybean production and jeopardize smallholder farmers’ food security. We estimated yield changes in drybeans due to changing climate in these countries using downscaled data from global circulation models (GCMs) in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We generated daily weather data, which we used in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) drybean submodel. We compared different cultivars, soils, and fertilizer options in three planting seasons. We analyzed the simulated yields to spatially classify high-impact spots of climate change across the four countries. The results show a corridor of reduced yields from Lake Nicaragua to central Honduras (10–38 % decrease). Yields increased in the Guatemalan highlands, towards the Atlantic coast, and in southern Nicaragua (10–41 % increase). Some farmers will be able to adapt to climate change, but others will have to change crops, which will require external support. Research institutions will need to devise technologies that allow farmers to adapt and provide policy makers with feasible strategies to implement them.     

坚持积极应对气候变化战略定力继续做全球生态文明建设的重要参与者、贡献者和引领者 ——纪念《巴黎协定》达成五周年

习近平总书记在2020年9月22日第七十五届联合国大会一般性辩论上表示:"中国将提高国家自主贡献力度,采取更加有力的政策和措施,二氧化碳排放力争于2030年前达到峰值,努力争取在2060年前实现碳中和。"在应对气候变化领域,在全球低碳转型的关键时刻,中国以大国担当更新了国家自主贡献方案,这是中国向世界发出的又一个强有力信号。国家自主贡献方案之所以备受全球关注,是因为这是《巴黎协定》最核心的制度,它很大程度上决定了各国的减排力度、低碳转型进程,乃至全球气候行动势头。为此我刊特转发《中国环境报》2020年12月14日第二版刊载的中国气候变化事务特使、生态环境部气候变化事务特别顾问解振华关于纪念《巴黎协定》达成五周年一文,以飨读者。     

Groundwater-dependent irrigation costs and benefits for adaptation to global change

The effects of a 1.5 °C global change on irrigation costs and carbon emissions in a groundwater-dependent irrigation system were assessed in the northwestern region of Bangladesh and examined at the global scale to determine possible global impacts and propose necessary adaptation measures. Downscaled climate projections were obtained from an ensemble of eight general circulation models (GCMs) for three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 and were used to generate the 1.5 °C warming scenarios. A water balance model was used to estimate irrigation demand, a support vector machine (SVM) model was used to simulate groundwater levels, an energy-use model was used to estimate carbon emissions from the irrigation pump, and a multiple linear regression (MLR) model was used to simulate the irrigation costs. The results showed that groundwater levels would likely drop by only 0.03 to 0.4 m under a 1.5 °C temperature increase, which would result in an increase in irrigation costs and carbon emissions ranging from 11.14 to 148.4 Bangladesh taka (BDT) and 0.3 to 4% CO₂ emissions/ha, respectively, in northwestern Bangladesh. The results indicate that the impacts of climate change on irrigation costs for groundwater-dependent irrigation would be negligible if warming is limited to 1.5 °C; however, increased emissions, up to 4%, from irrigation pumps can have a significant impact on the total emissions from agriculture. This study revealed that similar impacts from irrigation pumps worldwide would result in an increase in carbon emissions by 4.65 to 65.06 thousand tons, based only on emissions from groundwater-dependent rice fields. Restricting groundwater-based irrigation in regions where the groundwater is already vulnerable, improving irrigation efficiency by educating farmers and enhancing pump efficiency by following optimum pumping guidelines can mitigate the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources, increase farmers’ profits, and reduce carbon emissions in regions with groundwater-dependent irrigation.     

The Green Climate Fund as an effective compensatory mechanism in global climate negotiations

The Paris Agreement reached during the COP21 in December 2015 represents a timid step towards burden sharing in emission mitigation involving all countries. However, given the heterogeneity of countries and their relative differences in vulnerability to climate change damage and in mitigation costs, compensating schemes are required to reach an effective agreement. This paper investigates the role of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) as a potential compensating measure for both adaptation and mitigation actions under a global climate regime. A dynamic climate-economy computable general equilibrium model (GDynEP) is developed by including both a monetary valuation of climate change damage costs and two alternative methods to determine the allocation of GCF resources among receiving countries and between adaptation and mitigation contributions. Results show that, despite the high costs associated with the implementation of mitigation actions, most developing countries would face even higher costs in case of inaction. Furthermore, the preference of a country for an allocation method is strongly influenced by its characteristics and needs. Consequently, a main policy conclusion is to design country-specific sharing rules for GCF in order to maximize country participation in a global agreement.     

Carbon capture and storage deployment rates: needs and feasibility

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) may become a key technology to limit human-induced global warming, but many uncertainties prevail, including the necessary technological development, costs, legal ramifications, and siting. As such, an important question is the scale of carbon dioxide abatement we require from CCS to meet future climate targets, and whether they appear reasonable. For a number of energy technology and efficiency improvement scenarios, we use a simple climate model to assess the necessary contribution from CCS to ‘fill the gap’ between scenarios’ carbon dioxide emissions levels and the levels needed to meet alternative climate targets. The need for CCS depends on early or delayed action to curb emissions and the characteristics of the assumed energy scenario. To meet a 2.5°C target a large contribution and fast deployment rates for CCS are required. The required deployment rates are much faster than those seen in the deployment of renewable energy technologies as well as nuclear power the last decades, and may not be feasible. This indicates that more contributions are needed from other low-carbon energy technologies and improved energy efficiency, or substitution of coal for gas in the first half of the century. In addition the limited availability of coal and gas by end of the century and resulting limited scope for CCS implies that meeting the 2.5°C target would require significant contributions from one or more of the following options: CCS linked to oil use, biomass energy based CCS (BECCS), and CCS linked to industrial processes.     

“双碳”目标下：中国CCUS发展现状、存在问题及建议

在全球变暖，气候变化日趋严重的背景下，碳捕集、利用和封存(CCUS)技术逐渐被世界各国公认为是最具潜力的一种碳减排技术.在详细阐述CCUS技术的起源、概念、定位和演变过程的基础上，通过对比国内外CCUS技术的政策法规、示范工程和碳排放交易系统发展现状，系统总结了中国自2016年加入《巴黎协定》后，推动CCUS技术发展所做出的巨大努力，并结合生态文明建设及“碳达峰”“碳中和”目标分析中国CCUS技术现存问题，为进一步推动该技术发展提出相关参考意见.     

Assessing negative carbon dioxide emissions from the perspective of a national “fair share” of the remaining global carbon budget

We present an assessment of the plausible Paris-aligned fair share nett cumulative carbon dioxide (CO₂) quota for an example nation state, the Republic of Ireland. By Paris-aligned, we mean consistent with the Paris Agreement adopted at the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, at Paris, France, in December 2015 (UNFCCC 2015). We compare and contrast this quota with both the aspirations expressed in the current Irish National Policy Position and current national emission projections. The fair share quota is assessed as a maximum of c. 391 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO₂), equal to 83 tonnes of carbon dioxide (tCO₂) per capita, from 2015, based on a precautionary estimate of the global carbon budget (GCB) and specific interpretation of global equity. Given Ireland’s high current CO₂ per capita emission rate, this would correspond to sustained year-on-year reductions in nett annual CO₂ emissions of over ??11% per year (beginning as of 2016). By contrast, the CO₂ mitigation target indicated in the National Policy Position corresponds to nett annual reduction rates in the range of only ?4.7% per year (low ambition) up to a maximum of ??8.3% per year (high ambition), and projections based on current and immediately planned mitigation measures indicate the possibility, instead, of sustained increases in emissions at a rate of the order of +?0.7% per year. Accordingly, there is a large gap between Paris-aligned ambition and current political and policy reality on the ground, with a significant risk of early emergence of “CO₂ debt” and tacit reliance on rapid deployment of currently speculative (at a relevant scale and feasible cost) negative CO₂ emission technologies to actively remove CO₂ from the atmosphere. While the detailed policy situation will clearly differ from country to country, we suggest that this methodology, and its CO₂debt framing, may be usefully applied in other individual countries or regions. We recommend that such framing be incorporated explicitly into a global mitigation strategy via the statements of nationally determined contributions required to be submitted and updated by all parties under the Paris Agreement processes.

     

Scale and benefit of global carbon markets under the 2 °C goal: integrated modeling and an effort-sharing platform

Global climate change mitigation needs all countries’ efforts under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s guideline of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. The medium-to-long term regional emissions pathways simulated by integrated assessment models with global mitigation costs minimized to achieve the 2 °C goal might be very different from the regional emissions allowances allocated based on effort-sharing principles. Global carbon trading is a cost-effective mechanism to bridge the gap. Insight of previous papers has mainly focused on the impact of a single effort-sharing scheme on global carbon market, while this study attempts to explore the scale and benefit of global carbon market under different effort-sharing principles to achieve the 2 °C goal, with the application of a consistent modeling framework, consisting of an integrated assessment model and an effort-sharing platform. The results indicate that scale of global carbon market would be highly related with the effort-sharing principles. The global trading volumes would change from 1.8 Gigatons (Gt) carbon dioxide (CO₂) to over 12 GtCO₂ per year and largely peak between 2030 and 2040 under different kinds of effort-sharing principles. Correspondingly, annual global finance flows in the carbon market would increase gradually and reach the scale of hundreds of billions United States (US) dollars since 2020. Global carbon market would lower the abatement costs of developed countries, and the overall global abatement costs would drop by 0.4–2.6% during 2011–2050. The developing countries would not only acquire revenues from global carbon trading but also be provided with an opportunity to accelerate their domestic low-carbon energy transformation, local environmental improvement, job creation, and economic development. Linking national and regional carbon markets to develop global carbon market will be critical to maximize the utility of the market mechanism.     

废铁屑强化污泥厌氧消化产甲烷可行性分析

有关全球气候变化的《巴黎协定》落槌,预示着污水处理追求碳中和运行的时代已经来临.碳中和狭义理解即能源自给自足,这就要求污水处理厂应最大程度转化污水中有机物或产生的剩余污泥所蕴含的有机能源,并将其生成可再生能源——甲烷.然而,剩余污泥能源转化率较低一直都是限制厌氧消化技术广为应用的瓶颈.在污泥预处理技术之外,向厌氧消化系统中投加废铁屑强化甲烷生产有望成为另一个提高能源转化率的突破口,继而实现"以废促能、变废为宝"的目的.本综述从铁腐蚀析氢现象入手,在描述铁腐蚀析氢原理、析出H2对产CH4过程影响的基础上,对铁在厌氧系统ORP减少方面的作用、对厌氧微生物生理、生化特性的影响、对涉及微生物酶活的影响等进行了全面的介绍.最后,还通过生命周期评估(LCA)评价了基于废铁屑的污泥厌氧消化技术对环境的影响及经济合理性.     

A global analysis of residential heating and cooling service demand and cost-effective energy consumption under different climate change scenarios up to 2050

Climate change and energy service demand exert influence on each other through temperature change and greenhouse gas emissions. We have consistently evaluated global residential thermal demand and energy consumption up to the year 2050 under different climate change scenarios. We first constructed energy service demand intensity (energy service demand per household) functions for each of three services (space heating, space cooling, and water heating). The space heating and cooling demand in 2050 in the world as a whole become 2.1–2.3 and 3.8–4.5 times higher than the figures for 2010, whose ranges are originated from different global warming scenarios. Cost-effective residential energy consumption to satisfy service demand until 2050 was analyzed keeping consistency among different socio-economic conditions, ambient temperature, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission pathways using a global energy assessment model. Building shell improvement and fuel fuel-type transition reduce global final energy consumption for residential thermal heating by 30% in 2050 for a 2 °C target scenario. This study demonstrates that climate change affects residential space heating and cooling demand by regions, and their desirable strategies for cost-effective energy consumption depend on the global perspectives on CO₂ emission reduction. Building shell improvement and energy efficiency improvement and fuel fuel-type transition of end-use technologies are considered to be robust measures for residential thermal demand under uncertain future CO₂ emission pathways.     

Vulnerability of Indian mustard (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Brassica juncea</Emphasis> (L.) Czernj. Cosson) to climate variability and future adaptation strategies

A simulation study has been carried out using the InfoCrop mustard model to assess the impact of climate change and adaptation gains and to delineate the vulnerable regions for mustard (Brassica juncea (L.) Czernj. Cosson) production in India. On an all India basis, climate change is projected to reduce mustard grain yield by ～2 % in 2020 (2010–2039), ～7.9 % in 2050 (2040–2069) and ～15 % in 2080 (2070–2099) climate scenarios of MIROC3.2.HI (a global climate model) and Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies (PRECIS, a regional climate model) models, if no adaptation is followed. However, spatiotemporal variations exist for the magnitude of impacts. Yield is projected to reduce in regions with current mean seasonal temperature regimes above 25/10 °C during crop growth. Adapting to climate change through a combination of improved input efficiency, additional fertilizers and adjusting the sowing time of current varieties can increase yield by ～17 %. With improved varieties, yield can be enhanced by ～25 % in 2020 climate scenario. But, projected benefits may reduce thereafter. Development of short-duration varieties and improved crop husbandry becomes essential for sustaining mustard yield in future climates. As climatically suitable period for mustard cultivation may reduce in future, short-duration (<130 days) cultivars with 63 % pod filling period will become more adaptable. There is a need to look beyond the suggested adaptation strategy to minimize the yield reduction in net vulnerable regions.     

Minimizing changing climate impact on buildings using easily and economically feasible earth to air heat exchanger technique

The biggest challenge of the 21st century is to satisfy the escalating demand of energy and minimize the globally changing climate impact. Earth to air heat exchanger (EAHE) system can effectively reduce heating affects on buildings. An experimental study was carried out by designing EAHE system using low cost building materials like Bamboo (Bambuseae) and hydraform (cement and soil plaster) to reduce the energy consumption of buildings and minimize the impact of climate change. This system utilizes earth’s constant subterranean temperature for naturally heating or cooling the inlet air. This study was carried out in the North Eastern part of India. An open loop EAHE system was developed to predict the heating and cooling potential of the system. Within the system locally available bamboos were used for constructing the tunnel pipes and soil-cement mixture plaster was used to enhance the conductivity of the bamboo pipes. Soil-cement mixtures are capable of decreasing the humidity by 30 to 40 %. Majority of the North Eastern region of India, have humid climatic conditions through out the year. Experiment was performed continuously for 7 days and the result shows that irrespective to the inlet air temperature (ranges from 35 °C to 42 °C), outlet air temperature was recorded between 25 °C and 26 °C, which shows the effectiveness of the system. After a series of experimental analysis the study reveals that underground tunnel based fresh air delivery system is one of the easily feasible and economically feasible techniques which can drastically reduce the energy consumption of the buildings and help in addressing the continuously escalating demand of power and minimizing the impact of changing climatic conditions on buildings.     

A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based approach to adaptation to regional climate change: a case study of Okutama-machi,Tokyo, Japan

Recently, local governments have an increasing need to take extensive and effective local measures to adapt to regional climate change, but have difficulty knowing how and when to adapt to such change. This study aims: 1) to characterize an efficient and cost-effective database management tool (DMT) for developing a Geographic Information System (GIS) based approach to using observed and projected data, for decision-making by non-expert government authorities, and 2) to document how DMT can be used to provide specialized yet understandable climate change information to assist local decision-makers in clarifying regional priorities within a wide array of adaptation options. The DMT combines climate change mapping, statistical GIS, and a vulnerability assessment. Okutama-machi, a 225.63 km² sparsely populated mountainous region (2012 population 5,856) northwest of Tokyo, Japan, was chosen for this pilot study. In this paper, the most recent regional climate projections (5 km resolution) are transcribed into an understandable form for use by non-expert citizens who use the GIS-based DMT. Results illustrate qualitative agreement in projection of summer daily mean temperatures; the mean temperature increase at Okutama-machi is the greatest of any area in Tokyo. In comparing near future and future conditions, August monthly mean temperature will increase more than 0.7–0.9 °C and 2.8–2.9 °C, and monthly precipitation by 50 % and 25–41 %, respectively. However, the root mean square (RMS) errors and bias of percentage change for monthly precipitation in summertime are 26.8 % and 4.3 %, respectively. These data provide an early warning and have implications for local climate policy response.     

Climate change impact, mitigation and adaptation strategies for agricultural and water resources, in Ganga Plain (India)

Agriculture consumes more than two-thirds of global fresh water out of which 90 % is used by developing countries. Freshwater consumption worldwide is expected to rise another 25 %by 2030 due to increase in population from 6.6 billion currently to about 8 billion by 2030 and over 9 billion by 2050. Worldwide climate change and variability are affecting water resources and agricultural production and in India Ganga Plain region is one of them. Hydroclimatic changes are very prominent in all the regions of Ganga Plain. Climate change and variability impacts are further drying the semi-arid areas and may cause serious problem of water and food scarcity for about 250 million people of the area. About 80 million ha out of total 141 million ha net cultivated area of India is rainfed, which contributes approximately 44 % of total food production has been severely affected by climate change. Further changing climatic conditions are causing prominent hydrological variations like change in drainage density, river morphology (tectonic control) & geometry, water quality and precipitation. Majority of the river channels seen today in the Ganga Plain has migrated from their historic positions. Large scale changes in land use and land cover pattern, cropping pattern, drainage pattern and over exploitation of water resources are modifying the hydrological cycle in Ganga basin. The frequency of floods and drought and its intensity has increased manifold. Ganga Plain rivers has changed their course with time and the regional hydrological conditions shows full control over the rates and processes by which environments geomorphically evolve. Approximately 47 % of total irrigated area of the country is located in Ganga Plain, which is severely affected by changing climatic conditions. In long run climate change will affect the quantity and quality of the crops and the crop yield is going to be down. This will increase the already high food inflation in the country. The warmer atmospheric temperatures and drought conditions will increase soil salinization, desertification and drying-up of aquifer, while flooding conditions will escalate soil erosion, soil degradation and sedimentation. The aim of this study is to understand the impact of different hydrological changes due to climatic conditions and come up with easily and economically feasible solutions effective in addressing the problem of water and food scarcity in future.