加入WTO对中国环境的影响及对策初步研究

加入WTO对我国经济社会发展进程产生了重要影响,对与经济社会发展密切相关的环境也有一定影响。本文通过识别和筛选具体环境影响因子,界定评价范围,从WTO规则和入世后贸易变化两方面,遵循WTO规则-贸易政策/环境政策-(经济活动)-环境影响的链式反应逻辑关系,考察其中的压力-状态-响应过程,运用投入产出等模型开展定量评估。认为:加入世贸组织对我国环境产生了比较大的影响;"出口隐含污染物"量呈先升后降趋势;世贸组织规则有利于提高我国的环境管理水平;加强环境监管和绿化贸易政策可以缓解环境压力。建议:逐步推动建立我国的绿色贸易政策体系;通过贸易和投资向国外转移部分产能;建立积极的环境与贸易谈判策略及政策制定保障机制。     

入世前后中国农业贸易引致的就业“创造与替代”

我国加入世贸组织后,除了粮食安全、比较优势、竞争力等方面的影响研究外,农产品贸易开放对我国农业生产部门就业的影响一直令人关注,是具有比较优势的劳动密集型农产品出口带来更多就业创造,还是土地密集型农产品进口引致更多就业替代?本文运用1994-2009年数据,对入世前后农产品贸易开放引致的农业就业效应进行全面系统的实证分析,并对在不同情形下我国未来贸易引致的农业就业替代效应的程度和方式进行了模拟分析。研究结果表明:入世后我国农产品贸易引致的农业就业效应呈现出更明显的就业净替代变化;同时,在技术水平不变的情况下,我国未来劳动密集型农产品的实际出口增速与平抑就业替代压力的"理想增速"相距甚远,未来土地密集型净进口所产生的农业就业替代量将在较大程度上超过劳动密集型净出口创造的就业机会,我国农业就业整体"净替代"的趋势可能将长期持续。     

中国种植业产品贸易自由化对环境影响的计量经济分析

入世后．中国将根据WTO的要求对农业贸易相关政策进行调整和改革，这将改变国内农业生产，进而影响到农村生态环境。在此背景下．本文首先界定了种檀业产品贸易自由化的涵义．并对其环境影响途径进行分析．然后利用计量经济方法着重分析了贸易自由化对国内种植业生产中化肥、农药使用的影响。研究结果表明，在种植业产品的贸易自由化中，进口渗透作用对缓解国内化肥、农药污染影响显着．而出口导向作用影响不明显。文章最后给出了减缓农产品贸易自由化的不利影响，发挥其有利影响的政策建议。     

WTO框架内可再生能源问题初探

近年来全球贸易自由化水平不断提升,与此同时,资源枯竭等问题也不断出现,基于此,国际社会开始反思自身的贸易模式并寻求解决上述问题的办法。可再生能源因其取之不尽、环境成本低的特点能够帮助一国更好的应对未来能源危机但另一方面可再生能源也因其初期开发成本高的问题而影响其推广。为此,各国制定了一系列扶持本国可再生能源的优惠政策,但在WTO框架下"加拿大可再生能源电力保障措施(FIT Programme)案"中却出现了一系列新的问题:首先,WTO框架下优惠政策是否构成SCM协定中的补贴?其次,如何解决在WTO框架下的条约义务冲突问题?只有解决了上述的问题才能够在可再生能源问题上既不会对国际社会的可再生能源贸易秩序造成紊乱又不会完全以牺牲环境为代价来发展贸易,从而能够真正的彰显WTO的宗旨。     

资源异质性视角下中国稀土定价权缺失本真研究

从重要而不可再生稀土资源的稀缺性价值与功能特性价值的异质性视角出发,分析和提出具有突出资源优势的中国稀土其贸易定价权长期缺失属于双重性质缺失:即一般稀土定价权缺失是以牺牲资源和环境利益为代价的"绝对丢失",而特种稀土定价权缺失为创造和体现可得性价值上的"相对迷失"。在定价权缺失状态和价格弹性条件分析基础上,分别根据异质成本古诺竞争理论与内生增长理论构建了两类不同性质稀土定价权缺失的内因机理模型。进而,运用1992—2009年两类稀土代表性产品贸易数据及相关稀土数据,先后采用动态面板GMM估计和面板RE检验,对中国两类稀土对外贸易定价权缺失及内因进行实证分析。结果证实了该"双重缺失"的理论分析判断,并表明稀土行业低集中度和特种稀土国际专利水平落后依次为一般稀土和特种稀土贸易定价权缺失的最主要内在因素,同时,也表明扭曲的国内稀土低端消费持续增长率与进口特种稀土消费比率偏低也分别是其缺失的重要因素。因而,针对中国稀土定价权缺失性质和内因本真,为其缺失根本治理和定价权科学全面增进与获取,并最终为维护稀土资源和价值利益及环境利益、以及在根本上促使中国稀土产业的战略可持续发展和广大稀土资源区域的协调可持续发展,国家和政府及稀土企业首先应采取相应分而治之的措施和战略。一方面,两类稀土定价权缺失抑制的战略储备上应实施不同策略,同时,它们定价权的实现也应有不同的科学战略目标定位。另一方面,应认清一般稀土定价权获取的关键基础和重要支撑,并把握好特种稀土定价权实现的关键和核心,此外,还应创新政府稀土管理。     

国际碳减排活动中的利益博弈和中国策略的思考

博弈论能够解释许多经济活动和国际关系中出现的现象和问题。利用博弈论的相关理论。对《京都议定书》各利益集团之间的利益争斗进行了分析。指出各利益集团之间斗争的内在原因。并对中国在新一轮谈判中的策略提出了一些建议：由于《京都议定书》生效,而美国仍拒绝批准《京都议定书》。并同时抛出自己的减排方案。这必然会引起新一轮的减排博弈。面对美国等一些国家施加的压力,中国在这场新的博弈中要有所准备。提出具有建设性的建议和意见。既要维护中国和大多数发展中国家的利益。又要有助于减排。     

中国及“一带一路”沿线典型国家贸易隐含碳转移研究

贸易将生产和消费连接起来,商品消费地可通过产品的跨地区调入,将与生产相关的碳排放与实际消费相分离,产生贸易中隐含碳排放转移的问题。本文基于多区域投入产出方法(MRIO),采用投入产出链接技术,将中国降尺度到30个省份(含4个直辖市),建立了"区域-国家-全球"多级尺度嵌套模型及相应的环境卫星矩阵数据库,评估了中国各区域及中国对"一带一路"沿线典型国家商品和服务贸易中的碳排放,并对双边贸易隐含碳排放的区域和行业流向进行分析。研究发现,中国在与"一带一路"沿线典型国家进行贸易时,国内生产碳排放大于国内消费碳排放,是隐含碳净出口国,属于隐含碳的"国内承担、国外消费"模式。韩国、印度是中国隐含碳的主要出口国家,俄罗斯是主要隐含碳进口国。在中国内部,沿海、东北、内陆、西北及西南地区的进出口贸易隐含碳依次减少,隐含碳排放平衡性具有区域差异性。中国对"一带一路"沿线典型国家贸易隐含碳行业结构的分析结果显示,公用事业(电力、热力和燃气)是最大的隐含碳净出口部门,建筑业是最大的隐含碳净进口部门。研究结果识别了中国与"一带一路"沿线国家贸易隐含碳排放的关键地区和关键部门,可为宏观层面制定低碳策略提供定量决策和理论支持。     

中国贸易隐含污染转移研究

本文基于WIOD、UNCTAD数据库,以8种污染物作为污染排放指标,构建了中国及其主要贸易伙伴国之间的环境多区域投入产出(MRIO)模型,并测算了中国贸易隐含污染净出口量及双边贸易污染转移量,继而引入贸易污染条件分析双边贸易对中国及其贸易伙伴国的不同影响。结果表明:中国在观察期(2000—2011年)内均为贸易隐含污染净出口国,且贸易隐含碳净出口量先升后降,而贸易隐含其他污染物净出口量却逐年递增。2011年中国基于生产端核算污染排放总量达685.69亿t,基于消费端核算污染排放量为635.50亿t,贸易隐含污染净出口总量达50.19亿t;双边贸易污染转移中中国成为了发达国家的"污染天堂"。2011年美国、欧盟、日本通过贸易向中国分别净转移污染物总量分别达到26 464.48万t、40 837.45万t、8 001.19万t,但中国与亚洲其他地区之间并不存在单向污染转移关系。中美、中欧、中日之间的贸易污染条件介于0.95~61.89之间,即双边贸易在恶化中国环境的同时对促进美国、欧盟、日本环境的改善作用明显,中国与亚洲其他地区之间的贸易污染条件介于0.40~6.41之间,因而双边贸易对中国和亚洲其他地区的环境影响并不确定。中国与任何伙伴国之间采掘业、电力煤气供应业等行业的贸易均严重增加了国内污染物排放。意味着:一方面,限制"两高一资"产品的出口等政策已改善了中国贸易隐含碳排放,但未对贸易隐含其他污染物排放产生作用;另一方面,中国不仅需要提高资源密集行业生产技术绿色化程度,更要严格控制这类行业的进出口贸易。     

基于方法改进后的中国对外贸易隐含能测算

自2001年起中国成为能源净进口国,伴随着能源贸易逆差的持续扩大,国际社会上不断出现对中国大量进口能源的各种指责。实际上中国进口的能源不仅用于自身的消耗,而且更多的是用于生产和出口大量优质的商品以满足国外消费者的需求。因此明确中国对外贸易中的能源消耗水平就成为准确认识中国真实能源消耗水平的关键。与传统能源消耗水平的测算方法不同,隐含能概念的引入使得对一国最终商品完整生产过程中的能源消耗测算更为准确。而在隐含能的测算过程中,测算的关键据是一国的投入产出表数据。本文在总结已有研究的基础上对中国隐含能的测算方法进行了改进。以中国官方公布的中国投入产出表为基础,在测算出口时使用"按固定比例进行分配"法;而在测算进口时放弃使用单一国家或部分国家加权方法计算进口能耗系数的方法,使用由本文提出的将进口国分为发达国家和发展中国家两类的方法测算能耗系数,并以此为基础重新测算了中国的进出口隐含能和贸易隐含能净值。通过测算不仅使中国贸易隐含能的结果得到进一步的精确,而且还深入到行业内部,对具体行业的隐含能状况进行了分析。测算发现中国在整个贸易过程中实际处于隐含能源的"净输出"状态,而造成逆差的行业主要是采掘和加工业、其他行业、其他工业等。并以此为基础,提出今后中国对于上述这些隐含能净值逆差行业要在保持已有贸易模式的前提下对其就继续予以扶持和鼓励;而对于隐含能净值为顺差的行业则要把工作的重点放在如何提高内部技术平和降低能耗上。通过降低出口隐含能水平和增加进口隐含能的方式来实现贸易隐含能收支的均衡。     

贸易政策扭曲与中国双边虚拟水进口节水效率研究

推进双边贸易的绿色转型是当前中国实现贸易高质量发展的重要目标,而水资源短缺问题成为制约我国进行生态文明建设的外部约束。虚拟水贸易倡导贸易国增加虚拟水的进口、降低虚拟水的出口,因此对提高水资源的利用效率具有重要的现实意义,然而现实情形中客观存在着的不同类别的贸易政策扭曲将会造成中国虚拟水贸易实际水平与理论前沿的偏离。基于此,本文通过构建异质性随机前沿模型,基于贸易政策扭曲的视角探讨造成中国双边虚拟水进口节水无效率的原因,在科学全面地测度当前中国贸易政策扭曲的实际水平的基础上,定量研究中国当前现有的贸易政策扭曲是否以及在何种程度上影响其双边虚拟水进口贸易的节水效率。研究结论显示:①中国双边虚拟水进口贸易量的实际值与前沿水平存在偏差,且贸易政策扭曲是产生上述现象的主要原因。②在贸易政策扭曲的作用下,中国双边虚拟水进口存在16.59%～31.17%的效率损失,中国优化自身水资源配置效率尚有较大提升空间。③与仅考虑关税贸易政策扭曲相比,非关税贸易政策扭曲使中国双边虚拟水进口节水效率损失有所上升。④中国双边虚拟水进口最有效率的贸易伙伴主要包括美国、澳大利亚和加拿大等自然资源较为丰富的国家,以及日本、韩国、中国台湾等与中国地理距离较近的国家和地区。这意味着,我国应当继续深化贸易自由化改革,构建更为科学有效的贸易政策保护体系,在结合虚拟水贸易自身的特征的基础上,适度调整关税贸易政策和非关税贸易政策保护水平和保护结构,从而使中国的水资源利用效率得到进一步优化。     

On "China-measures related to the exportation of various raw materials" case in terms of DSB's interpretations

The Appellate Body report in January 2012 had supported the decision of Panel in the"China-measures related to the exportation of various raw materials"case(WT/DS394,395,398)and affirmed that China's restrictions(such as tariffs and quota measures)on the exportation of raw materials violated rules put forth by the WTO,which were required to be modified.In this case China's right to invoke Article 20 of GATT1994("general exception")to justify its exemption from the guidelines in Article 11.3 of the WTO Accession Protocol was denied by the Panel and the Appellate Body.This was due to the fact that the phrasing in Article 11.3 of Protocol failed to mention"GATT."This was the consequence of the two interpretation approaches the Dispute Settlement Body(DSB)adopted-a narrow textual interpretation and a subjective presumption of"legislative silence."The inappropriate use of the two methods of interpretation lead to an imbalance between the right and obligation of China under the additional obligations that were imposed upon China by the WTO,which create a negative impact on China's rare earth case and the protection of domestic natural resources.     

On “China-measures related to the exportation of various raw materials” case in terms of DSB’s interpretations

The Appellate Body report in January 2012 had supported the decision of Panel in the “China-measures related to the exportation of various raw materials” case (WT/DS394,395,398) and affirmed that China’s restrictions (such as tariffs and quota measures) on the exportation of raw materials violated rules put forth by the WTO, which were required to be modified. In this case China’s right to invoke Article 20 of GATT1994 (“general exception”) to justify its exemption from the guidelines in Article 11.3 of the WTO Accession Protocol was denied by the Panel and the Appellate Body. This was due to the fact that the phrasing in Article 11.3 of Protocol failed to mention “GATT.” This was the consequence of the two interpretation approaches the Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) adopted – a narrow textual interpretation and a subjective presumption of “legislative silence.” The inappropriate use of the two methods of interpretation lead to an imbalance between the right and obligation of China under the additional obligations that were imposed upon China by the WTO, which create a negative impact on China’s rare earth case and the protection of domestic natural resources.     

Controversy of International Carbon-motivated Border Tax Adjustment and Its Impact on China’s Manufacturing Industries

Carbon-motivated border tax adjustment (BTA) aims to compensate for the loss of competitiveness of carbon intensive products due to carbon dioxide abatement actions.Based on the analysis of the international background of carbon-motivated BTAs,this paper discusses the fundamental motivation leading to US policy transformation,the potential impacts of the policy on China’s manufacturing industries,and the compatibility of the policy to WTO rules.Carbon-motivated BTAs violate the fundamental principle of the UNFCCC,and potentially conflict with the core WTO principle of non-discrimination reflected in the GATT Articles I and III.However,Article XX of the GATT may be applicable.Thus,the author suggests several measures to alleviate the impacts of carbon-motivated BTAs,and puts forward countermeasures based on carbon consumption per capita.     

Empirical analysis of carbon tariff’s effect on the export structure of China’s manufacturing industry and social welfare based on the GTAP model

In recent years, carbon emissions have gradually evolved from an environment issue into a political and economic one. Carbon tariff has brought about new trade barriers of developed countries, and in order to enhance the industrial competitiveness of developed countries, it will produce unfavorable impact on developing countries. Concentrated on the manufacturing industry, which is the most intensive high-carbon industry in China’s export structure, this article studies the relationship between carbon tariff policy and industry structure of export trade and builds up a relation between climate change and international trade. First, by means of establishing a partial equilibrium model, it applies geometric analysis and mathematical analysis to compute the impact on China’s manufacturing export trade and the consequences of the introduction of the US carbon tariff to China’s manufacturing industry that has already imposed a domestic shipping carbon tax. Furthermore, with the application of the GTAP model, it estimates the overall economic and welfare effects on China’s manufacturing industry if the US and Europe introduce carbon tariff by means of four ways, and then analyzes the influence on China’s manufacturing industry export structure and social welfare as well. The result shows that the introduction of the US carbon import tariff lowers China’s export price and export volume, and the implementation of a domestic carbon tax justifies a higher export price and a lower export volume for China. However, the degree of export reduction is smaller than that under the effect of the US carbon tariff. In the case of developed countries imposing carbon tariff on China’s energy-intensive industries, such as chemical rubber products, oil and coal-processing industry and paper industry, whose export would be reduced, the negative impact on the paper industry is the severest, which will decrease the paper industry’s export ranging from 1.79% to 6.05%, whereas the other industries’ export will increase. Anyhow, it will promote China’s manufacturing industry to adjust the export structure to a certain extent. In addition, it will lead to a decrease in China’s welfare, with a decrease between $2.134 billion and $8.347 billion. Finally, this paper provides information on international coordination, export structure adjustment and green manufacturing adjustment as a reference for the development of China’s manufacturing industry.     

中国出口隐含碳排放影响因素研究——基于反事实法的分析

中间消耗的"消耗规模与部门构成"是影响中国出口碳排放的重要因素。基于世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)1995—2015年数据,在部门归类与形式变换基础上,本文选取"单位产出碳排放量"、"完全消耗系数"与"出口值"为中国出口隐含碳排放的影响因子,构建"因子变动—反事实构造—效果评价"分析框架,借助规模指数与结构指数对影响因子的变化动态进行描述,并通过反事实构造对"因子变动"的影响效果进行评价。研究发现:"单位产出碳排放量"规模指数单调递减,Spearman偏度系数为右偏态,说明相比于意愿产出而言,非意愿产出"碳排放量"具有内在的规模不经济;"中间消耗"规模指数与碳偏向性指数在截面上始终处于高位水平,时序上出现了显著的递增趋势,说明中国单位出口值的中间消耗量偏大,消耗投入在结构上偏向于高碳部门,与"技术前沿国"美国存在显著"技术差距";"出口值"规模指数呈现"平缓扩张——快速攀升——V型震荡"的阶段性特征,结构指数经历了以基期2002年为顶点、"先下降、后上升、再平稳"的变化轨迹,说明"出口值"作为最具弹性的影响因子,受"亚洲金融危机"、"加入世界贸易组织"与"美国次债危机"等外部冲击的影响明显,对出口碳排放的推动作用存在伸缩性与阶段性差异。从"因子变动"影响效果来看,中国产出、中间消耗与出口的部门构成具有内生关联,均显著偏向于高碳部门,对出口隐含碳排放增长产生了叠加性的"正向"扩张效应。基于此,本文认为,总量控制与结构优化的视角需从产品环节向中间消耗环节扩展,现阶段应深化要素市场改革,加速要素禀赋升级,借力要素价格机制与差别化产业规制政策,从上游环节抑制出口碳排放的输入来源。     

Sustainable Development of Export： Theoretical Meaning, Evaluation Model, and Empirical Research

With the effect of the human trade doctrine in the international trade field, almost all the countries have paid more attention to the sustainable development of international trade. This article chose the export sustainable development as the research object. On the basis of the analysis of the theoretical connotation of the export sustainable development, this article tried to establish an evaluation indices system and set up an evaluation model of the export sustainable development level, and finally made some empirical research on China. The result indicates that the comprehensive level of the export sustainable development in China showed a tendency to rise from 1985 to 2003 and the export sustainable development level of China in these years can be divided into four grades： excellent, good, moderate and poor. In most years, the social economic benefits of export was obtained at the cost of the deterioration of environment and the depletion of resources, and the economic profit of export did not increase with the enlargement of the export scale because of the deterioration of the terms of trade. Therefore, China should be careful about the problem of poverty accompanied by the increase of export.     

Toward Ecological Economy

Abstract

With the effect of the human trade doctrine in the international trade field, almost all the countries have paid more attention to the sustainable development of international trade. This article chose the export sustainable development as the research object. On the basis of the analysis of the theoretical connotation of the export sustainable development, this article tried to establish an evaluation indices system and set up an evaluation model of the export sustainable development level, and finally made some empirical research on China. The result indicates that the comprehensive level of the export sustainable development in China showed a tendency to rise from 1985 to 2003 and the export sustainable development level of China in these years can be divided into four grades: excellent, good, moderate and poor. In most years, the social economic benefits of export was obtained at the cost of the deterioration of environment and the depletion of resources, and the economic profit of export did not increase with the enlargement of the export scale because of the deterioration of the terms of trade. Therefore, China should be careful about the problem of poverty accompanied by the increase of export.     

Environment Implications of China''''s WTO Accession

China's WTO accession will have important environmental implications. This article aims at providing environmental analysis of the impact of China's accession to the WTO, based on its final offer for WTO accession and a 53-sector, recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of China. We try to provide some empirical evidences for policy makers to evaluate the effects of China's WTO accession from environmental prospective.     

Water pollution footprints induced by industrial import and export in China

With the rapid development of foreign trade in China, industrial import and export has been an absolute subject in recent years. The huge trade surplus of import and export trade of industrial products brings not only high profits, but also pollution costs as well. Based on the concept of water pollution footprints (WPFs), this study applies the input-output method and calculates pollutant-producing coefficients of 20 major industrial sectors in China and investigates the WPFs caused by the import and export trades of these industrial sectors. The research results show that WPF resulting from exports exceeds that of imports from 2011 to 2015 in China. The net inflow of pollution footprint is mainly from paper mills, printing and stationery manufacturing, and textile industry; whereas a great number of WPFs are transferred to other countries by these sectors, such as metal mining and dressing industry and oil and natural gas exploitation industry.