Modelling the resilience of Australian savanna systems to grazing impacts.

Savannas occur across all of northern Australia and are extensively used as rangelands. A recent surge in live cattle exports to Southeast Asia has caused excessive grazing impacts in some areas, especially near watering points. An important ecological and management question is "how resilient are savanna ecosystems to grazing disturbances?" Resilience refers to the ability of an ecosystem to remain in its current state (resist change) and return to this state (recover) if disturbed. Resilience responses can be measured using field data. These responses can then be modelled to predict the likely resistance and recovery of savannas to grazing impacts occurring under different climatic conditions. Two approaches were used to model resilience responses. First, a relatively simple mathematical model based on a sigmoid response function was used. This model proved useful for comparing the relative resilience of different savanna ecosystems, but was limited to ecosystems and conditions for which data were available. Second, a complex process model, SAVANNA, was parameterised to simulate the structure and function of Australian savannas. Simulations were run for 50 years at two levels of grazing to evaluate resistance and then for another 50 years with no grazing to evaluate recovery. These runs predicted that savanna grasslands were more resistant to grazing (changed less) than red-loam woodlands, which recovered relatively slowly from grazing impacts. The SAVANNA model also predicted that these woodlands would recover slightly slower under the climate change scenario projected for northern Australia.     

Applying the GM(1,1) model to simulate and predict the ecological footprint values of Suzhou city,China

The ecological footprint value (abbreviated as EF) is the quantitative indicator on evaluating the sustainable development status of a region. How to simulate the EF’s trend with a long-time data series has been heatedly discussed. The economic development of Suzhou, one of the most developed cities in Yangtze Delta, China, has been accelerated in the past 20 years, and it is necessary to evaluate the influence of the socioeconomic growth on local natural resources. The EF values of Suzhou from 1999 to 2018 were calculated and simulated using both the ARIMA model and the GM(1,1) model. The ARIMA model has been used in the prediction of EF values in several cases. However, the EF data series of the city consisted of white noise and could not be fitted by the ARIMA model. The GM(1,1) model, an approach forecasting nonlinear data series, was not found in the studies of the EF simulation. Through the model precision test, the GM(1,1) model introduced fit the EF data series well and was considered to be appropriate to simulate the EF values for Suzhou. The fitting performance was accurate, and the EF values of the city could be forecasted by the model in short term. With the proposed model, the ecological sustainability status of the city was analyzed.

     

Determining E. coli burden on pasture in a headwater catchment: Combined field and modelling approach

Empirical monitoring studies of catchment-scale Escherichia coli burden to land from agriculture are scarce. This is not surprising given the complexity associated with the temporal and spatial heterogeneity in the excretion of livestock faecal deposits and variability in microbial content of faeces. However, such information is needed to appreciate better how land management and landscape features impact on water quality draining agricultural landscapes. The aim of this study was to develop and test a field-based protocol for determining the burden of E. coli in a small headwater catchment in the UK. Predictions of E. coli burden using an empirical model based on previous best estimates of excretion and shedding rates were also evaluated against observed data. The results indicated that an empirical model utilising key parameters was able to satisfactorily predict E. coli burden on pasture most of the time, with 89% of observed values falling within the minimum and maximum range of predicted values. In particular, the overall temporal pattern of E. coli burden on pasture is captured by the model. The observed and predicted values recorded a disagreement of > 1 order of magnitude on only one of the nine sampling dates throughout an annual period. While a first approximation of E. coli burden to land, this field-based protocol represents one of the first comprehensive approaches for providing a real estimate of a dynamic microbial reservoir at the headwater catchment scale and highlights the utility of a simple dynamic empirical model for a more economical prediction of catchment-scale E. coli burden.     

Estimation of septic tank setback distances based on transport of E. coli and F-RNA phages

Setback distances between septic tank systems and the shorelines of Lake Okareka, New Zealand were determined from model simulations for a worst-case scenario, using the highest hydraulic conductivity and gradient measured in the field, removal rates of the microbial indicators (Escherichia coli and F-RNA phages) determined from a column experiment, and maximum values of the design criteria for the disposal system, and assuming an absence of an unsaturated zone, a continuous discharge of the raw effluent from a failed or non-complying treatment system (both indicators at concentrations of 1x10(7) counts/100 ml) into the groundwater and no sorption of pathogens in the aquifer. Modelling results suggest that the minimal setback distances were 16 m to satisfy the New Zealand Recreational Water Quality Guidelines for E. coli <126 per 100 ml (Ministry for the Environment, 1999) and 48 m to meet the Drinking-Water Standards for New Zealand 2000 for enteric virus <1 per 100 l (Ministry of Health, 2000). These distances may be applicable for other lakeshores in pumice sand aquifers with groundwater velocities <7 m/day. Findings of laboratory column and batch experiments provided an insight into the microbial attenuation and transport processes in pumice sand aquifers. Bacterial removal was predominately through filtration (87-88%) and partially by die-off (12-13%), while viral removal was by both die-off (45%) and filtration (55%). In addition, microbial die-off in groundwater without aquifer material (i.e., free microbes) was much lower than die-off in groundwater with aquifer material (i.e., sorbed microbes) and contributed only 2-6% to the total removal. This implies that the setback distances estimated from die-off rates for the free microbes, determined in the laboratory without considering aquifer media and other removal processes, which are often reported in the literature, could be larger than necessary.     

Aspects of the uptake of radionuclides by sheep grazing on an estuarine saltmarsh. 1. The influence of grazing behaviour and environmental variability on daily intake

Sea water contaminated with diluted radioactive effluent originating from the Sellafield reprocessing plant inundates saltmarshes in the Esk estuary in west Cumbria (UK). Much of the radioactivity on the saltmarsh vegetation was found to be associated with a surface deposit of silt, brought onto the area during tidal inundation. Large temporal variations in the radionuclide concentrations of the vegetation were found, these being due probably to seasonal fluctuation in the extent of silt deposition.The grazing habits of sheep were studied on one of these saltmarshes and the consequent ingestion of radionuclides by the sheep was estimated. The sheep ingested different quantities of radionuclides according to time of year as a result of a combination of two factors; the considerable temporal variation in the concentration of radionuclides on the saltmarsh vegetation and the seasonal grazing behaviour of the sheep.     

Dynamics of carbon balance components in fallow arable lands on the Valdai Upland

The dynamics of carbon pools in the live phytomass, necromass, and soil reservoirs have been analyzed in fallow arable lands of Novgorod oblast. The results show that the amounts of above- and belowground necromass increase with the age of fallows, while the dynamics of live phytomass have no distinct trend. Comparisons with archival data show that the stocks of soil organic carbon in the studied ecosystems have decreased by 1.39 t C/ha since 1983, which is equivalent to an annual loss of 0.03 t C/ha. The main factors accounting for changes in the carbon stocks of fallow soils are the initial organic carbon contents in topsoil, the intensity of agromeliorative measures taken during the period of agricultural land use, and carbon contents in soils of meadow communities typical for a given region (zone).     

Features of shorebird nesting in plowed lands of Moscow region in the 1980s to 2000s

Data on the nesting of shorebirds (Vanellus vanellus, Limosa limosa, Tringa totanus, and T. stagnatilis) in plowed lands of the Moscow region has been studied over the periods before and after the agricultural collapse in Russia (1979–1991 and 1992–2007, respectively). In the latter period, the proportion of pairs nesting in plowed lands has increased in L. limosa and T. totanus, with nesting density increasing in both these species and V. vanellus. The observed changes depend on the proportion of abandoned lands in areas around plowed lands and on the level of moisture supply of the latter. Both factors exert their effect via changes in foraging conditions for shorebirds.     

Aspects of the uptake of radionuclides by sheep grazing on an estuarine saltmarsh. 2. Radionuclides in sheep tissues

The transfer ¹³⁷Cs, ²³⁸Pu, ^239/240Pu and ²⁴¹Am to sheep which graze a saltmarsh in the Esk estuary, 7 km south of the sellafield reprocessing plant in west Cumbria (UK), has been estimated.The concentrations of gamma-emitting radionuclides and of ²³⁸Pu, ^239/240Pu and ²⁴¹Am were measured in liver, lung, muscle, kidney and bone from saltmarsh ewes and lambs. ¹³⁷Cs concentrations in the soft tissues were similar in liver, lung and muscle but were consistently higher in kidney and much lower in bone. The highest concentration of the transuranics was found in liver.Transfer coefficients and concentration factors were calculated for both ewes and lambs. The concentration of ¹³⁷Cs in the tissues of 5-month old lambs was higher than in those of their mothers. Therefore, a higher transfer coefficient was obtained for lamb muscle (1·8 × 10^?1 d kg^?1) than for ewe muscle (6·4 × 10^?2 d kg^?1). Concentration factors were consistently higher for ¹³⁷Cs than for the transuranics.     

Radioecological software package: an interactive computational system to simulate the behaviour of radionuclides in semi-natural environments

RSP (Radioecological Software Package) is an interactive support system that simulates the behaviour of radionuclides in semi-natural environments and the consequences on the population in terms of the external exposure. RSP consists of three modules: the first one, soil mobility, simulates the vertical transport of radionuclide in soil using the mathematical model RABES. The second module, soil -to-plant transfer, simulates the radionuclide soil-to-plant transfer factor reported in the literature. Soil properties, vegetation types and environmental conditions are taken into consideration in the simulation process. In the third module, dose assessment, the dose-rate factor in air at a height of 1 m above ground can be calculated for sources distributed in a slab of finite thickness dn sources which are exponentially distributed with depth. The calculations are performed using DAGES Model, a Monte Carlo algorithm developed to simulated the photon transport for the soil/air configuration. A free copy of RSP can be downloaded from the website: http://imasl-apat.unsl.edu.ar.     

Modelling the trade-off between fire and grazing in a tropical savanna landscape, northern Australia.

As savannas are widespread across northern Australia and provide northern rangelands, the sustainable use of this landscape is crucial. Both fire and grazing are known to influence the tree-grass character of tropical savannas. Frequent fires open up the tree layer and change the ground layer from perennials to that dominated by annuals. Annual species in turn produce copious quantities of highly flammable fuel that perpetuates frequent, hot fires. Grazing reduces fuel loads because livestock consumes fuel-forage. This trade-off between fire and grazing was modelled using a spatially explicit, process-orientated model (SAVANNA) and field data from fire experiments performed in the Victoria River District of northern Australia. Results of simulating fire (over 40 years) with minimal or no grazing pressure revealed a reduction in the shrub and woody plants, a reduction in grasses, and no influence on the tree structure given mild fires. While mature trees were resistant to fire, immature trees, which are more likely associated with the shrub layer, were removed by fire. The overall tree density may be reduced with continual burning over longer time periods because of increasing susceptibility of old trees to fire and the lack of recruitment. Increases in stocking rates created additional forage demands until the majority of the fuel load was consumed, thus effectively suppressing fire and reverting to the grazing and suppressed fire scenario where trees and shrubs established.     

Long-term studies on transfer of 137Cs from soil to vegetation and to grazing lambs in a mountain area in northern Sweden

Studies were made during 1990-1997 on the transfer of 137Cs from soil to vegetation (herbage) and to grazing lambs on a mountain farm with an uncultivated grazing area of about 10 km2. The farm is situated in an area in Northern Sweden which was contaminated by the Chernobyl fallout in 1986. The mean concentration of 137Cs in the soil to a depth of 10 cm for eight sampling sites observed in the 8-year period was 14.51 kBq/m2, while in the cut herbage the average concentration was 859 Bq/kg d.w. and in lamb meat 682 Bq/kg w.w. A slow vertical migration of 137Cs in the 0-10 cm soil layer was indicated. Although the 137Cs concentration in herbage gradually decreased, the concentration in lamb meat varied from year to year. Soil ingestion by the lambs as a pathway for activity transfer was shown to be negligible, while ingestion of fungi with high concentrations of 137Cs was demonstrated to occur, as large numbers of fungi spores were counted in samples of the lambs' faeces. Fungi ingestion might therefore partly explain the varying mean yearly 137Cs concentrations in lamb muscle. The mean transfer parameters were as follows: for "soil to herbage" 61.3 Bq/kg d.w. herbage per kBq/m2 soil, for "herbage to lamb meat" 0.81 Bq/kg w.w. meat per Bq/kg d.w. herbage, and for "soil to lamb meat" 47.1 Bq/kg w.w. meat per kBq/m2 soil. A trend of decreasing values of the transfer parameter for "soil to herbage" indicated that 137Cs was becoming less available for root-uptake with time. The effective ecological half-life of 137Cs in soil, herbage and lamb meat was calculated to be 19, 7 and 16 years, respectively. It can be concluded that natural areas are vulnerable to 137Cs contamination, resulting in high concentrations in plants, fungi and lamb meat for a long time.     

Amplifiers on the Commons: Using Indicators to Foster Place-Based Sustainability Initiatives

This essay proposes a heuristic conservation between the emerging field of environmental communication and the “crisis discipline” of conservation biology in order to generate a set of ethical postulates for research, teaching, and professional consultation. To the extent that social/symbolic representations of “environment” embody interested orientations, such discourses potentially constrain and/or enable societal responses to environmental signals, including signs of ecological crises. The essay argues that, implicit in this and other functional premises, lies a principal ethical duty of environmental communication: the obligation to enhance the ability of society to respond appropriately to environmental signals relevant to the well-being of both human communities and natural biological systems.     

Public health benefits of compliance with current E.U. emissions standards for municipal waste incinerators: a health risk assessment with the CalTox multimedia exposure model

The Angers municipal solid waste incineration plant, in operation since 1974, was upgraded in 2000 to comply with new European standards. This article discusses the risks associated with past and present emissions from the incinerator and its nearby furnace. Emissions of SO(2), HCl, particulate matter, lead, mercury, cadmium and dioxins were studied. We characterised the risks associated with exposure via inhalation and ingestion of locally grown products, before and after the upgrade. Emissions were estimated from regulatory measurements, and ambient air concentrations estimated with a Gaussian dispersion model. The CalTox multimedia model was used to calculate concentrations in the food chain. Food intake rates came from a nationwide survey. Inhalation exposure to respiratory irritants produced a hazard ratio less than 1 in all scenarios, except for SO(2) in the immediate neighbourhood of the incinerator, before the change in furnace fuel and in case of high-pressure weather conditions. The individual excess risk of cancer was less than 10(-6) and the hazard ratios for metals were less than 1. Before compliance, the average dioxin exposure attributable to the incinerator accounted for roughly one quarter of the average total exposure from traffic and other combustion activities. Although the corresponding hazard ratio was less than 1, the individual lifetime excess risk, assuming no change in emissions, was 2 x 10(-4). After compliance, all hazard ratios and future individual lifetime excess risks appear minimal. These results are consistent with environmental data and other studies, but many uncertainties remain, such as intermedia transfer coefficients for dioxins. Nevertheless compliance has vastly reduced the probability of health effects.     

Using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to estimate public health impacts of PM2.5 from individual power plants

We estimated PM_2.5-related public health impacts/ton emitted of primary PM_2.5, SO₂, and NO_x for a set of power plants in the Mid-Atlantic and Lower Great Lakes regions of the United States, selected to include varying emission profiles and broad geographic representation. We then developed a regression model explaining variability in impacts per ton emitted using the population distributions around each plant. We linked outputs from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model v 4.7.1 with census data and concentration–response functions for PM_2.5-related mortality, and monetized health estimates using the value-of-statistical-life. The median impacts for the final set of plants were $130,000/ton for primary PM_2.5 (range: $22,000–230,000), $28,000/ton for SO₂ (range: $19,000–33,000), and $16,000/ton for NOx (range: $7100–26,000). Impacts of NO_x were a median of 34% (range: 20%–75%) from ammonium nitrate and 66% (range: 25%–79%) from ammonium sulfate. The latter pathway is likely from NO_x enhancing atmospheric oxidative capacity and amplifying sulfate formation, and is often excluded. Our regression models explained most of the variation in impact/ton estimates using basic population covariates, and can aid in estimating impacts averted from interventions such as pollution controls, alternative energy installations, or demand-side management.     

Using qualitative scenarios to understand regional environmental change in the Canadian North

This paper discusses the application of qualitative scenarios to understand community vulnerability and adaptation responses, based on a case study in the Slave River Delta region of the Northwest Territories, Canada. Three qualitative, graphic scenarios of possible alternative futures were developed, focusing on two main drivers: climate change and resource development. These were used as a focal point for discussions with a cross-section of residents from the community during focus groups, interviews and a community workshop. Significant overlap among the areas of perceived vulnerability is evident among scenarios, particularly in relation to traditional land use. However, each scenario also offers insights about specific challenges facing community members. Climate change was perceived to engender mostly negative livelihood impacts, whereas resource development was expected to trigger a mix of positive and negative impacts, both of which may be more dramatic than in the “climate change only” scenario. The scenarios were also used to identify adaptation options specific to individual drivers of change, as well as more universally applicable options. Identified adaptation options were generally aligned with five sectors—environment and natural resources, economy, community management and development, infrastructure and services, and information and training—which effectively offer a first step towards prioritization of “no regrets” measures. From an empirical perspective, while the scenarios highlighted the need for bottom-up measures, they also elucidated discussion about local agency in adaptation and enabled the examination of multi-dimensional impacts on different community sub-groups. An incongruity emerged between the suite of technically oriented adaptation options and more socially and behaviourally oriented barriers to implementation. Methodologically, the qualitative scenarios were flexible, socially inclusive and consistent with the Indigenous worldview; allowed the incorporation of different knowledge systems; addressed future community vulnerability and adaptation; and led to the identification of socially feasible and bottom-up adaptation outcomes. Despite some caveats regarding resource requirements for participatory scenario development, qualitative scenarios offer a versatile tool to address a range of vulnerability and adaptation issues in the context of other Indigenous communities.     

A dynamic model for assessing radiological consequences of tritium routinely released in rivers. Application to the Loire River

A dynamic model for assessing the transfer of tritium in a food chain was applied to the Loire River, where 14 nuclear power plants situated on five different sites operate. The model considers several potential exposure pathways in the aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems: transfer of tritium through the aquatic food chain (especially fish); use of river water for agricultural purposes (irrigation) and transfer of radionuclides through the terrestrial food chain (vegetables, meat, milk); subsequent internal exposure of humans due to ingestion of contaminated foodstuffs. For biological environmental compartments, the transfer of tritium to organic matter (i.e. OBT) was simulated. For each of the parameters introduced in this model, a probability density function, allowing further uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, was proposed. Uncertainty/sensitivity analyses were performed to determine a confidence interval for the mean annual dose to critical groups and to identify the parameters responsible for the uncertainty and subsequent research priorities.     

Effects of grazing and fencing on carbon and nitrogen reserves in plants and soils of alpine meadow in the three headwater resource regions

Knowledge about carbon and nitrogen in plants and soils and response to fence and graze in alpine ecosystems is still rudimentary because of extremely geographic situation. The purpose of this study was to compare the difference among carbon, nitrogen concentration, and content of unit area and dynamics of above- and below-ground biomass, soil organic carbon and total nitrogen between fencing and grazing alpine meadow. The results showed that total carbon and C: N radio in the aboveground tissue were significantly higher in fenced and ungrazing grassland (FU) than those in free grazing grassland (FG). In addition, the order of total carbon and nitrogen concentration of aboveground tissue of different function groups were not identical between them; The total carbon storage (TCS) per unit of aboveground tissue, roots and 0–30 cm soil layer increased after being fenced for 5 years from free grazing grassland (9255.17 g/m²) to fenced and ungrazing grassland (12637.10 g/m²) by 26.79%. The corresponding total nitrogen storage (TNS) increased by 751.42 g/m². Furthermore over 95% TCS (TNS) come from 0–30 cm soil layer. However there were no significant differences between fenced and ungrazing grasslands of 10 years and 5 years. Therefore fenced to exclude grazing by Tibetan sheep and yaks was an alternative approach to sequester C to the soil in alpine meadow systems.     

A mathematical model to investigate the impact of overgrowing population-induced mining on forest resources

Here, we develop a mathematical model which investigates the impact of growing population and rampant mining on forest resources, present in an urban region. In order to demonstrate the effect imposed by the overgrowing population on the environment, population pressure is incorporated in the model, which augments mining activities in the given region. The obtained model is studied qualitatively using stability theory of differential equations, while it is quantitatively analyzed through numerical simulation. The results of the model reveal that a whopping increase in unchecked mining activities, induced through excessive population growth, leads to declination of forest resources in a region. Therefore, sustainable mining is suggested through control measures imposed by the government on mining activities.     

Using diatoms to assess the impacts of prehistoric, pre-industrial and modern land-use on Danish lakes

The impact of contemporary agriculture on Danish lakes is acknowledged to be extreme. In particular, high loading of nutrients from agricultural soils contributes to the eutrophic conditions found in many of Denmark’s lakes. Palaeolimnological studies have shown that human disturbance of the Danish landscape since the introduction of agriculture around 6,000 years ago has had a major impact on lake ecosystems. The European Union’s Water Framework Directive requires an evaluation of reference conditions for lakes, the conditions expected with only minimal human impact. Monitoring data and palaeolimnological studies of Danish lakes demonstrate that many of the most detrimental effects of eutrophication have been experienced in recent decades. A new study has suggested that the reference status for Danish lakes may be set to the status in ad 1850–1900, probably providing attainable, realistic restoration targets for many sites. The aims of this study were to explore the impacts of past and contemporary land-use on Danish lakes, and to consider how appropriate the use of 1850 as a date to define reference status is for these sites. Catchment land-cover data for ad 1800, taken from historical maps, and sedimentary diatom assemblages of the same age, from dated sediment cores, were used to assess the impact of pre-industrial land-use on 20 Danish lakes. Analysis of contemporary land-cover data and surface-sediment diatom assemblages for the 20 sites was also made. In-lake total phosphorus (TP) concentrations were estimated using the sedimentary diatom assemblages and an existing calibration dataset for Danish lakes. The percentage of the lake catchment that was agricultural land in ad 1800 explained 8.8% of the total variation in the diatom data. The land-cover variables ‘built-up areas’ and ‘plantations’, together explained 16.9% of the variation in the diatom data for the modern samples. Diatom-inferred TP concentrations were high for both ad 1800 (mean 112 μg TP L⁻¹) and the present (mean 122 μg TP L⁻¹), the latter estimates reflecting efforts in recent decades to reduce nutrient loading to Danish lakes following very high levels of nutrient enrichment post-1950. The data presented highlight the impact that human activities 200 years ago, particularly agriculture, had on Danish lake systems. The long cultural history and major anthropogenic disturbance of the Danish landscape mean that true reference conditions for lakes (or ‘baseline’ conditions, those found prior to human impacts) can be found only by considering century to millennial timescales.     

Exploring uncertainty of the change from ICD-9 to ICD-10 on acute mortality effects of air pollution

The change in ICD coding from ICD-9 to ICD-10 may produce inconsistencies and discontinuities in cause-specific mortality, thus impacting on effects estimates of air pollution on mortality. The current study was conducted in Wuhan, China. We examined the concordant rates and Kappa statistics using the mortality data from the year 2002 coded with both ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes and compared the estimated effects of air pollution using the Generalized Additive Model in R. We found high concordant rates (>99.3%) and Kappa statistics close to 1.0 (>0.98). Little difference was identified in the estimated effects of air pollution on daily cardiovascular, stroke, cardiac, cardiopulmonary, and respiratory mortality. This study provides evidence that, based on the wide definitions of cause-specific morality typically used in the studies of time-series air pollution mortality, the change in the ICD coding does not significantly affect the estimated effects of air pollution.