Methods: Data for all vehicle–pedestrian crashes on public roadways in the Melbourne metropolitan area from 2004 to 2013 are used in this research. Spatial autocorrelation is applied in examining the vehicle–pedestrian crashes in geographic information systems (GIS) to identify any dependency between time and location of these crashes. Spider plots and kernel density estimation (KDE) are then used to determine the temporal and spatial patterns of vehicle–pedestrian crashes for different age groups and genders.
Results: Temporal analysis shows that pedestrian age has a significant influence on the temporal distribution of vehicle–pedestrian crashes. Furthermore, men and women have different crash patterns. In addition, results of the spatial analysis shows that areas with high risk of vehicle–pedestrian crashes can vary during different times of the day for different age groups and genders. For example, for those between ages 18 and 65, most vehicle–pedestrian crashes occur in the central business district (CBD) during the day, but between 7:00 p.m. and 6:00 a.m., crashes among this age group occur mostly around hotels, clubs, and bars.
Conclusions: This research reveals that temporal and spatial distributions of vehicle–pedestrian crashes vary for different pedestrian age groups and genders. Therefore, specific safety measures should be in place during high crash times at different locations for different age groups and genders to increase the effectiveness of the countermeasures in preventing and reducing vehicle–pedestrian crashes. 相似文献
Method: Reports for 6,539 pedestrian crashes occurred in Denmark between 2006 and 2015 were merged with geographic information system resources containing detailed information about the built environment and exposure at the crash locations. A linearized spatial logit model estimated the probability of pedestrians sustaining a severe or fatal injury conditional on the occurrence of a crash with another road user.
Results: This study confirms previous findings about older pedestrians and intoxicated pedestrians being the most vulnerable road users and crashes with heavy vehicles and in roads with higher speed limits being related to the most severe outcomes. This study provides novel perspectives by showing positive spatial correlations of crashes with the same severity outcomes and emphasizing the role of the built environment in the proximity of the crash.
Conclusions: This study emphasizes the need for thinking about traffic calming measures, illumination solutions, road maintenance programs, and speed limit reductions. Moreover, this study emphasizes the role of the built environment, because shopping areas, residential areas, and walking traffic density are positively related to a reduction in pedestrian injury severity. Often, these areas have in common a larger pedestrian mass that is more likely to make other road users more aware and attentive, whereas the same does not seem to apply to areas with lower pedestrian density. 相似文献
Methods: A total of 2,614 crash records (2011–2012) at intersections in Cook County, Illinois, were collected. An ordered probit modeling approach was employed to develop the proposed model and examine factors influencing PIS. The likelihood ratio test was used to assess model performance. Elasticity analysis was conducted to interpret the marginal effect of contributing factors on PIS associated with different driver groups by age.
Results: The results show that 4 independent variables, including pedestrian age, vehicle type, point of first contact, and weather condition, significantly affect PIS at intersections for all drivers. Two additional independent variables (i.e., number of vehicles and traffic type) affect PIS for young and middle-aged drivers, and 2 other variables (i.e., divided type and hit-and-run related) are significant to PIS for both young and older drivers.
Conclusions: The independent variables significant to PIS at intersections for young, middle-aged, and older driver groups were identified and the marginal effect of each variable to the likelihood of PIS were assessed. 相似文献
Method: Police-reported crashes from 2 Australian jurisdictions were used to calculate a fatal crash rate by speed limit and crash type. Example safe speed limits were defined using threshold risk levels.
Results: A positive exponential relationship between speed limit and fatality rate was found. For an example fatality rate threshold of 1 in 100 crashes it was found that safe speed limits are 40 km/h for pedestrian crashes; 50 km/h for head-on crashes; 60 km/h for hit fixed object crashes; 80 km/h for right angle, right turn, and left road/rollover crashes; and 110 km/h or more for rear-end crashes.
Conclusions: The positive exponential relationship between speed limit and fatal crash rate is consistent with prior research into speed and crash risk. The results indicate that speed zones of 100 km/h or more only meet the objectives of the Safe System, with regard to fatal crashes, where all crash types except rear-end crashes are exceedingly rare, such as on a high standard restricted access highway with a safe roadside design. 相似文献
Methodology: In this study, 2 different road marking treatments, optical circles and herringbone patterns, were used to influence driver behavior while entering a curve on a 2-lane rural road section. A driving simulator was used to perform the experiment. The simulated road sections are replicas of 2 real road sections in Flanders.
Results: Both treatments were found to reduce speed before entering the curve. However, speed reduction was more gradual when optical circles were used. A herringbone pattern had more influence on lateral position than optical circles by forcing drivers to maintain a safe distance from opposing traffic in the adjacent lane.
Conclusion: The study concluded that among other low-cost speed reduction methods, optical circles are effective tools to reduce speed and increase drivers’ attention. Moreover, a herringbone pattern can be used to reduce crashes on curves, mainly for head-on crashes where the main problem is inappropriate lateral position. 相似文献
Methods: Two-vehicle crashes between a motorcycle and a passenger vehicle that occurred in the United States during 2011–2015 were classified by type, with consideration of the functionality of 3 classes of passenger vehicle crash avoidance technologies: frontal crash prevention, lane maintenance, and blind spot detection. Results were expressed as the percentage of crashes potentially preventable by each type of technology, based on all known types of 2-vehicle crashes and based on all crashes involving motorcycles.
Results: Frontal crash prevention had the largest potential to prevent 2-vehicle motorcycle crashes with passenger vehicles. The 3 technologies in sum had the potential to prevent 10% of fatal 2-vehicle crashes and 23% of police-reported crashes. However, because 2-vehicle crashes with a passenger vehicle represent fewer than half of all motorcycle crashes, these technologies represent a potential to avoid 4% of all fatal motorcycle crashes and 10% of all police-reported motorcycle crashes.
Discussion: Refining the ability of passenger vehicle crash avoidance systems to detect motorcycles represents an opportunity to improve motorcycle safety. Expanding the capabilities of these technologies represents an even greater opportunity. However, even fully realizing these opportunities can affect only a minority of motorcycle crashes and does not change the need for other motorcycle safety countermeasures such as helmets, universal helmet laws, and antilock braking systems. 相似文献
Methods: The study is based on traffic crash data merged with road maintenance data and annual average daily traffic (AADT) collected in Denmark. We analyzed 3,964 crashes that occurred from 2010 to 2015. A latent class clustering (LCC) technique was used to identify crash clusters with different road and crash characteristics. The distribution of crash severity and estimated road maintenance costs for each cluster was found and cluster differences were compared using the chi-square test. Finally, a map matching procedure was used to identify the geographical distribution of the crashes in each cluster.
Results: Results showed that based on road maintenance levels there was no difference in the distribution of crash severity. The LCC technique revealed 11 crash clusters. Five clusters were characterized by crashes on roads with a poor maintenance level (levels 4 and 3). Only a few of these crashes included a vulnerable road user (VRU) but many occurred on roads without barriers. Four clusters included a large share of crashes on acceptably maintained roads (level 2). For these clusters only small variations in road characteristics were found, whereas the differences in crash characteristics were more dominant. The last 2 clusters included crashes that mainly occurred on new roads with no need for maintenance (level 1). Injury severity, estimated maintenance costs, and geographical location were found to be differently distributed for most of the clusters.
Conclusions: We find that focusing solely on road maintenance and crash severity does not provide clear guidance of how to prioritize between road maintenance efforts from a traffic safety perspective. However, when combined with geographical location and crash characteristics, a more nuanced picture appears that allows consideration of different target groups and perspectives. 相似文献
Methods: This study analyzed 4-year crash and real-time loop detector data by employing hierarchical Bayesian models with random effects within a sequential logit structure. In addition to evaluation of the impact of random effects on model fitness and complexity, the prediction capability of the models was examined. Stepwise incremental sensitivity and specificity were calculated and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were utilized to graphically illustrate the predictive performance of the model.
Results: Among the real-time flow variables, the average occupancy and speed from the upstream detector were observed to be positively correlated with HR crash possibility. The average upstream speed and speed difference between upstream and downstream speeds were correlated with the occurrence of severe HR crashes. In addition to real-time factors, other variables found influential for HR and severe HR crashes were length of segment, adverse weather conditions, dark lighting conditions with malfunctioning street lights, driving under the influence of alcohol, width of inner shoulder, and nighttime.
Conclusions: This study suggests the potential traffic conditions of HR and severe HR occurrence, which refer to relatively congested upstream traffic conditions with high upstream speed and significant speed deviations on long segments. The above findings suggest that traffic enforcement should be directed toward mitigating risky driving under the aforementioned traffic conditions. Moreover, enforcement agencies may employ alcohol checkpoints to counter driving under the influence (DUI) at night. With regard to engineering improvements, wider inner shoulders may be constructed to potentially reduce HR cases and street lights should be installed and maintained in working condition to make roads less prone to such crashes. 相似文献
Methods: We collected and analyzed 15 years of crash data from the states of Illinois and Alabama. The final data set includes 398 WWD crashes. The rarity of WWD events and the consequently small sample size of the crash database significantly influence the application of conventional log-linear models in analyzing the data, because they use maximum-likelihood estimation. To overcome this issue, in this study, we employ multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) to define the structure of the crash data set and identify the significant contributing factors to WWD crashes on freeways.
Results: The results of the present study specify various factors that characterize and influence the probability of WWD crashes and can thus lead to the development of several safety countermeasures and recommendations. According to the obtained results, factors such as driver age, driver condition, roadway surface conditions, and lighting conditions were among the most significant contributors to WWD crashes.
Conclusions: Despite many other methods that identify only the contributing factors, this method can identify possible associations between various contributing factors. This is an inherent advantage of the MCA method, which can provide a major opportunity for state departments of transportation (DOTs) to select safety countermeasures that are associated with multiple safety benefits. 相似文献
Methods: Pedestrian injury data, obtained from the Baltimore City Fire Department, were gathered through emergency medical services (EMS) records collected from January 1 to December 31, 2014. Locations of pedestrian injuries were geocoded and mapped. Pearson's chi-square test of independence was used to investigate differences in injury severity level across risk groups. Pedestrian injury rates by age group, gender, and race were compared to national rates.
Results: A total of 699 pedestrians were involved in motor vehicle crashes in 2014—an average of 2 EMS transports each day. The distribution of injuries throughout the city did not coincide with population or income distributions, indicating that there was not a consistent correlation between areas of concentrated population or concentrated poverty and areas of concentrated pedestrian injury. Twenty percent (n = 138) of all injuries occurred among children age ≤14, and 22% (n = 73) of severe injuries occurred among young children. The rate of injury in this age group was 5 times the national rate (Incident Rate Ratio [IRR] = 4.81, 95% confidence interval [CI], [4.05, 5.71]). Injury rates for adults ≥65 were less than the national average.
Conclusions: As the urban landscape and associated pedestrian behavior transform, continued investigation of local pedestrian injury trends and evolving public health prevention strategies is necessary to ensure pedestrian safety. 相似文献
Methods: Nonlinear canonical correlation analysis (NLCCA) and proportionality test were used to identify the relationship between crash types and different freeway segments. The data sets for the different freeway segments accumulated for this study consist of 9,867 crash samples with complete information on all 22 chosen variables. A multinomial logit model (MNL) was used to estimate the influence of crash factors on different freeway segments.
Results: The results show that weaving and diverge overlap influence segments (WD) are more likely to have injury or fatal crashes; diverge and diverge overlap influence segments (DD) are more likely to have property damage–only (PDO) crashes; merge and merge overlap influence segments (MM) are more likely to have sideswipe crashes; and WD have non-sideswipe crashes; WD and weaving overlap influence segments (MW) are more likely to have rear end crashes; and MM segments are less likely to have hit object crashes. The contributing factors are identified by MNL and the results show that different traffic variables, environmental variables, vehicle variables, driver variables, and geometric variables significantly affected the likelihood of crashes on different freeway segments.
Conclusions: Investigation of crash types and factors contributing to crashes on different freeway segments is based on multiple ramp influence segments, which can promote a better understanding of the safety performance of various freeway segments. 相似文献
Methods: Using a prospective database of HIs from a neurosurgical practice in a sub-Saharan African developing country, a cross-sectional survey was conducted for the trauma demography and clinical epidemiology of this MCC-related HI.
Results: Motorcycle crashes accounted for 57% (473/833) of all RTI-related HIs in this registry. The victims, with a mean age of 33.1 years (SD = 18.3), consisted mainly of males (83.1%), those of low socioeconomic status (>90%), and those aged between 20 and 40 years old (56%). MCCs involved only riders in 114 cases (114/473, 32.1%), of which 69% were motorcycle–motorcycle crashes. The HI was moderate–severe in 50.8%; clinical symptomatology of significant HI included loss of consciousness (92%), anisocoria (35%), Abbreviated Injury Scale head (AIS–head) score > 3 (28%), and CT-Rotterdam score > 3 (30%). Extracranial systemic injury involved the limbs most frequently, with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) >25 in 49%. The fatality rate was 24%.
MCC-related HI among pedestrian victims involved more vulnerable age groups (the young and elderly) but have lower mean ISS compared to motorcycle passengers (mean ISS = 23.5 [11.6] vs. 27.4 [13.0]; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.27–6.49; P = .004). In addition, compared to a contemporary cohort of MVC-related HIs in our registry, MCC victims were older (mean age 34.8 years [18.0] vs. 30.8 [18.4]; P = .002); had higher proportions of certain extracranial trauma like long bone fractures (71 vs. 29%; P = .02); and suffered fewer surgical brain lesions (25.5 vs. 17.2%; P = .004).
Conclusions: Motorcycle crashes are now a significant threat to the heads, limbs, and lives of vulnerable road users in developing countries. 相似文献
Methods: A study was conducted into pedestrian casualty crashes at priority controlled junctions, roundabouts and signalised junctions in England between 2005 and 2015 using information from the UK STATS19 accident database, the UK National Travel Survey and the UK National Census. Consideration was given to coding frequencies of contributory factors, exposure (in terms of miles walked or driven) as well as age, gender and the resident deprivation index of the road users involved.
Results and Conclusions: In terms of indicative blame, the coding frequencies of subjectively determined pedestrian actions and behaviour factors which might have contributed to pedestrian casualty crashes were found to be between 1.6 and 2.8 times the frequencies of driver actions and behavioural factors. Substantial social gradients were found in pedestrian casualty rates per miles walked and in the driver involvement rates per mile driven with those from the most deprived quintile having higher rates. In addition, it was found that female pedestrians, aged 60 years and over, had higher pedestrian casualty rates, per billion miles walked, for all three junction types, when compared with males and females under the age of 60 years, apart from male pedestrians aged 16 years and younger at priority controlled junctions. 相似文献
Methods: Seven hundred and sixty drivers aged from 19 to 60 years old were asked to complete the MDSI and a personality scale (trait anger, sensation seeking, altruism, and normlessness). Exploratory factory analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were used to obtain the factorial structure of the MDSI. The external validity of the MDSI was then evaluated by examining the associations between driving styles and personality traits, demographic variables, and traffic violations and crashes.
Results: EFA revealed a 6-factor structure of the MDSI (i.e., risky, anxious, angry, distress reduction, careful, and dissociative driving styles). CFA confirmed that the model fit of the MDSI was acceptable. The MDSI factors were moderately or weakly correlated with trait anger, sensation seeking, altruism, and normlessness. Significant gender and age differences in driving styles were found. Moreover, drivers who had traffic violations or crashes in the past year scored higher on risky and angry driving styles and lower on careful driving style than those who had not have traffic violations or crashes.
Conclusions: The Chinese version of the MDSI proved to be a reliable, valid, and highly useful instrument. It could be used to assess Chinese drivers who are at risk due to their maladaptive driving styles. 相似文献
Method: The research sample included drivers involved in traffic crashes on the territory of Serbia in 2016 (60,666). Two types of analyses were conducted in this study. Logistic regression established the correlation between DUI and DSC and the The Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (Multi-criteria decision making) method was applied to consider the scoring and explore the potential for the prevalence of DUI on the basis of 2 data sets (DUI and non DUI).
Results: The study results showed that driver error and male drivers were the 2 most significant risk factors for DUI, with the highest scores and potential for prevalence. The nonuse of restraint systems, driver experience, and driver age are the factors with a significant prediction of involvement in an accident and an insignificant prediction of DUI.
Conclusions: Following the development of the logistic prediction models for DUI drivers, testing of the model was conducted for 3 control driver groups: Car, motorcycle, and bicycle. The prediction model with a probability greater than 50% showed that 77% of car drivers were under the influence of alcohol. Similarly, the prediction percentage for motorcyclists and bicyclists amounted to 71 and 67%, respectively. The recommendation of the study is that drivers whose DUI probability is above 50% should be potentially suspected of DUI. The results of this study can help to understand the problem of DUI among specific driver categories and detect DUI drivers, with the aim of creating successful traffic safety policy. 相似文献
Methods: Data on all car/van drivers and motorcycle/moped riders fatally injured in RTCs during 2005–2015 were extracted from Norwegian road traffic crash registries and combined with forensic toxicology data.
Results: The proportion of cars and motorcycles with antilock braking systems and cars with electronic stability control, increased significantly during the study period. The prevalence of nonuse of seat belts/helmets and speeding declined among both fatally injured drivers and riders. In addition, the prevalence of alcohol declined, though no significant change in the total prevalence of other substances was noted.
Conclusion: The observed changes toward more safety installations in cars and motorcycles and lower prevalence of driver-related risk factors like alcohol use, speeding, and nonuse of seat belts/helmets among fatally injured drivers/riders may have contributed to the decrease in road traffic deaths. 相似文献
Methods: While data driven enforcement has been proven to be an effective tool in addressing crime and traffic safety problems, it has been a slow process for agencies to adopt data driven techniques. This study aims to explore the difference in traffic stops made inside and outside of hotspot identified areas. The study uses data from the Stark County Operating a Vehicle Impaired Task Force between 2013 and 2014.
Results: The analysis determined that stop occurring in hotspot defined areas are more likely to result in impaired driving arrests and seatbelt citations. Additionally it is found that the average cost of impaired driving arrests is significantly cheaper for stops occurring inside of hotspot areas.
Conclusion: Clustering as a means of directing law enforcement efforts are a way to increase the productivity and benefits of law enforcement agencies with limited finances or personnel. From this study it is seen that traffic stops made within defined cluster or hot spot areas are more effective in resulting in OVI arrests. 相似文献
Method: A multinomial logit analysis was conducted to identify factors influencing the severity of motorcycle crashes in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The severity categories were fatal, severe injury, minor injury, and property damage only (PDO). The analysis was based on a total of 784 motorcycle crashes that occurred from 2013 to 2016.
Results: The following factors were found to increase the probability of a fatality: Speeding, driving under the influence, head-on impact, presence of horizontal curves, reckless riding, off-peak hours, violations, and riding without a helmet. The results indicate that crashes occurring on weekdays, during peak hours, at intersections, involving a rear-end impact, in daylight, on street roads, and under clear weather conditions decrease the probability of a fatality. However, minor injury and PDO crashes were found to be associated with crashes occurring during peak hours, at intersections, and on street roads, as well as failure to yield right-of-way.
Conclusions: Several countermeasures are recommended based on the study findings. The recommended countermeasures focus on the holistic safety improvement strategies constituting the three Es of highway safety, namely, engineering, education, and enforcement. 相似文献