城市规划中人口空间分布模拟方法研究

城市人口空间分布是影响社会经济活力、基础设施建设、公共服务配置以及城市交通、住宅、生态环境问题等方面的重要因素之一,是科学开展城市规划的基础与前提.传统的等值区域图法只能描述一个地区总体城市分布状况,难以准确反映城市内部人口的实际分布.本文通过综述国内外23篇研究成果,将城市人口分布空间模拟方法总结为城市人口密度模型、内插法空间分布模型、地理因子相关性模型(包括光谱估算法、土地利用密度法、居住单元估算法、夜间灯光强度估算法、硬化地表估算法)3大类7种,分析了它们各自的特点及改进措施.人口空间分布模拟在我国城市规划体系中有较大应用价值,重点讨论了在城镇体系规划、城市总体规划以及详细规划等不同规划层面人口空间分布适用模拟技术.最后指出为提高我国城市规划的科学性和预测精度,综合运用多种方法对城市人口空间分布进行估算模拟将成为该领域研究趋势,以期为城市规划管理提供技术参考.     

面向防洪救灾的人口统计数据空间化研究——以扶余县为例

人口是重要的受灾体,准确的人口空间分布信息是防洪救灾工作的重要依据。将人口统计数据与遥感数据相结合,借助GIS手段来空间化人口统计数据,模拟人口空间分布。着力分析两个问题：①居民点类型、面积、位置的精确获取;②居民点类型、面积与人口数量间的关系。研究中,首先根据地理意义和数学意义,对经典的城市人口-面积异速生长模型进行扩展,推导出城乡人口-面积统一模型。进而以扶余县为例,以15万地形图为辅助数据,建立居民点分类体系,利用ETM影像提取居民点信息,在以上模型的基础上建立人口分布的反演模型,得到基于居民点的人口分布矢量数据。     

泥石流对岩性的敏感性分析及其在危险性评价中的应用

泥石流对不同岩性的敏感程度存在很大的差异，而岩性在泥石流相关的科学研究中也难以量化使用。本研究选择三江并流区为研究区，采用工程地质岩组划分方法，将研究区的地质岩性分为14个工程地质岩组；进而引入岩性敏感度计算公式Fn = Nn / Sn，分析研究区泥石流灾害点分布与地质岩组的相关性，计算出泥石流对各地质岩组的敏感值。在ArcGIS 90平台的支持下，根据泥石流对岩性的敏感值，将研究区的地质岩性进行量化分级，划分为4个敏感性等级，并将本研究成果应用到三江并流区泥石流危险性评价的应用中。本文选择坡度、岩性、断裂、植被和人类工程活动等5个影响因子为泥石流危险性的评价指标，建立泥石流危险性评价模型，在GIS技术支持下，绘制研究区的泥石流危险性区划图。本研究结果与研究区已有的地质灾害点分布情况基本吻合，充分证明本研究方法是切实可行的，进而可为我国西南地区的地质灾害评价以及防灾减灾工作提供方法指导与参考     

基于Copula函数的汉江中上游流域极端降雨洪水联合分布特征

选取汉江中上游流域作为研究对象,根据流域九个气象站点1969~2008年逐日降雨资料以及丹江口水库同时期日入库流量资料,采用年最大值法(AM)和百分位法两种选样方式选取1 d、3 d降雨和1 d、3 d洪量极值样本,分别运用广义极值分布(GEV)、广义帕累托分布(GPD)、伽玛分布(Gamma)3种极值统计模型对样本进行单变量边缘分布拟合,运用Gumbel、Clayton以及Frank Copula函数模型对样本进行多变量联合分布拟合,遴选出描述流域降雨和洪水联合分布规律的最优概率模型。结果显示:对于AM选样样本,边缘分布为GEV时降雨洪量的二维和三维联合分布Frank Copula函数拟合效果最优;对于百分位选样样本,边缘分布为GPD时降雨洪量的二维联合分布Gumbel Copula函数拟合效果最优,三维联合分布则是Frank Copula函数拟合效果最优;比较二维和三维Copula函数模拟结果,三维联合Copula函数推求的设计值更大,说明三维联合分布考虑了更多的变量和极值信息,能更全面地反映极端降雨洪水事件的真实特征,对工程设计更显安全。     

环洞庭湖区地下水位空间分布特征研究

地下水位空间分布特征研究对合理开发并有效利用地下水资源具有重要意义。为准确分析环洞庭湖区地下水位空间分布特征,以分隔距离增量及其对应的允许变化范围、最大计算范围、变异函数模型结构为变量构建了118种组合方案,采用交叉验证法及其评价指标对不同方案的变异函数模型参数及交叉验证统计结果进行对比分析,在此基础上筛选出相对较优的变异函数模型用于研究环洞庭湖区地下水位空间分布特征。结果表明:(1)不同结构的变异函数模型参数及其评价指标结果存在较大的差异;相同结构的变异函数模型参数及其对应的评价指标随分隔距离增量和最大计算范围的变化也存在明显变化趋势,且部分评价指标变化趋势对模型合理性的影响效果相反。(2)经对比分析,环洞庭湖区地下水位的变异函数模型为球形模型,模型变程为978 km,块金值为9.86,偏基台值为45.36,块金系数为17.9%。研究区域内地下水位具有强烈的空间相关性,且结构性因素对空间变异且主导作用。(3)环洞庭湖区地下水位总体上呈层状分布,由外向内地下水位依次降低,地下水埋深依次减少,研究区域内地下水位与地势和河流水系结构关系密切。     

基于3D理论与SEM的县域交通可达性与空间贫困的耦合机制

为获取连片特困地区县域交通可达性与空间贫困程度之间的耦合关系，运用路网-栅格集成法的加权时间成本距离模型对县域综合交通可达性进行测算，构建了基于“3D”理论的空间贫困评价指标体系，基于结构方程模型获取了二者的空间耦合机制，并以滇西边境山区为例进行分析验证。结果表明：滇西边境山区各贫困县（区）可达性水平的空间分异特征显著，且邻近效应突出，骨干路网的完善在一定程度上提高了贫困县域的县外可达性水平；滇西边境山区的贫困发生率呈现中心发散、集聚分布的空间特征，贫困程度的改善与地均GDP、市场距离、产业距离、交通分割、贫困分割呈正向相关，与地均人口密度呈负相关；区域空间贫困程度与交通可达性的耦合强度为023，呈显著负向影响。通过提升可达性水平和县域间通达程度，可为扶贫攻坚和经济社会发展提供有力支撑     

三峡库区腹地土地功能演变及其驱动机制分析

土地利用功能在一定程度上反映了土地利用方式和强度的变化。以三峡库区腹地奉节县和巫山县为研究区域，以1986、2000、2007和2015年多时相遥感影像资料为数据源，通过空间自相关和冷热点分析等研究方法，分析土地利用功能的时空演变规律，并探索其与海拔、坡度和岩性等自然因子，以及人口、道路等社会经济条件的耦合驱动机制，揭示土地利用功能的理论现实意义。研究发现：(1)就土地利用功能数量而言，生活用地增加，生产功能减少，生态用地总体趋于稳定；就土地利用功能面积变化格局而言，三生功能均向稳定性方向发展。(2)就其集散程度而言，生产功能由大集聚向小集聚转变且集聚面积减少；生活功能集聚性持续增强，且集聚面积扩大；生态功能由集聚向分散变化，且空间范围增加。(3)就土地利用功能的驱动机制而言，包括高程、坡度和岩性在内的自然因子影响其空间分布状况，人口及道路分布影响三生功能的空间数量变化。     

西南山区滑坡灾毁耕地修复利用适宜性评价研究

我国西南山区滑坡灾害发生频繁且分布广泛,对耕地资源造成严重影响和危害,山区滑坡灾毁耕地的修复利用正引起广大技术人员的关注。运用Delphi法选取了耕地土壤条件、耕地环境条件、耕作灌溉条件和耕作便利性条件等4个方面8个因子,基于AHP法构建了西南山区滑坡灾毁耕地修复利用适宜性评价指标体系,应用综合指数模型基于地理信息系统空间分析功能实现适宜性评价。将该成果应用于实际案例,得到的评价结果符合案例区灾毁耕地修复利用适宜性情况,表明其具有一定的科学性和应用价值,对制定西南山区滑坡灾毁耕地修复利用的科学决策与工艺选择具有重要的参考价值。     

江西省征地补偿标准与区域经济时空耦合关系研究

研究目的:通过构建耦合模型,揭示江西省征地补偿标准与区域经济系统间的耦合关系,并从时空角度对耦合关系的分布规律进行分析。研究方法:本文运用灰色关联分析法,构建耦合模型,测算耦合度系数,并通过arcgis10.1进行可视化。研究结果:江西省征地补偿标准与区域经济之间关联程度较高;空间分布基本以拮抗类型为主、低水平耦合次之;耦合度分布符合南、北空间分异的规律,同时以浙赣线为横轴,昌九线为纵轴,交汇于南昌;时序上,两者关联度呈现出平稳上升趋势。     

经济-生态导向的城市人口空间分布优化——以无锡市区为例

城市人口分布格局不仅受经济就业、生活质量、通勤距离等自组织分布要素的引导,还受到政府管制和调控的制约,不可能完全通过自组织而实现人口分布的优化。因此,除了阐释人口分布的自组织变动机制和影响因素外,还迫切需要研究人口分布对经济社会与资源环境方面的综合影响,进而提出优化的人口空间格局。在大量查阅人口分布相关理论的基础上,研究了城市人口空间分布模式,提出了生态约束、生产挤占、生活集聚、效益综合、顾及现状等人口优化分布原则,并运用随机与目标函数方法,建立人口空间分布优化模型。以无锡市区为例,基于丰富的人口、经济、资源、环境资料,进行城市空间生态保护、生产开发、生活居住价值评价,通过模型运算,提出优化的人口空间分布格局,为无锡市区人口分布调控提供依据。     

西南地区公路洪灾孕灾环境分区

以西南地区公路洪灾为研究对象，在孕灾因子分析基础上构建由6个因子组成的孕灾环境分区指标体系，利用层次分析和专家效度相耦合方法确定各指标权重，采用综合指数法建立孕灾环境综合指数评价模型。在ArcGIS软件平台支持下获取各评价指标数据，并计算得到各网格孕灾环境综合指数值，以县级行政区为单位进行公路洪灾孕灾等级区的划分。研究表明：西南地区孕育公路洪灾发生的环境条件较充分，孕灾环境综合指数值在3313~7746，孕灾分区主要集中在中易发区和高易发区，其中高易发区占整个研究区面积的5718%，中易发区占4039%，低易发区占243%，公路管理部门在汛期防治洪灾的任务较繁重     

Climate change and modeling of an unconfined aquifer: the Triffa plain,Morocco

The Triffa plain covering about 307 km² is located in the semiarid region of northeastern Morocco. The cover consists of Quaternary and Mio-Pliocene formations, including alluvial material, silt, sandstone, limestone, clay, and marl, underlain by a sequence of Jurassic carbonates and clastics. Two principal aquifers occur in this region: (1) An unconfined aquifer hosted by the Quaternary formations, which opens up on the coastal plain of Saïdia, giving rise to the Aïn Chebbak and Aïn Zebda springs; and (2) a confined aquifer hosted by the underlying Liassic (Jurassic) formations, composed of limestone and dolostone. In this paper, we present a conceptual hydrogeological model for the Triffa aquifer, which opens laterally into the Saïdia aquifer, based on borehole data, bedrock geology, hydrodynamic parameters, piezometric maps, and time series groundwater level and precipitation data, obtained from several meteorological stations and pumping wells. These comprehensive data were incorporated in the Geographic Information System platform and processed using groundwater modeling software, with the development of the numerical model and its limitations discussed in detail in the present work. Subsequently, we evaluated the impact of climate change on the Triffa aquifer, assuming three different climate scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These were the B1—low, A1B—mean, and A1F1—extreme scenarios, which we modeled by simulating a decrease in the recharge in all of the study area up to year 2099 that would correspond to 9, 19, and 47%, respectively. The calibration of the model in steady and transient states produced a good agreement between the observed and simulated heads. The simulation of the impact of climate change on groundwater by a decrease in the recharge highlights the groundwater drawdown occurring in this region. This work can significantly help the authorities in the sustainable management and exploitation of local groundwater.     

基于GIS和AHP的芦山地震灾区泥石流危险性评价

采用层次分析法，通过判断矩阵建立起各要素之间的数量关系，选取坡度、地层岩性、断裂带、植被覆盖、地震烈度及年降雨量作为评价指标，并阐明了各指标与泥石流之间的相互关系。建立以地理信息系统为平台的泥石流危险性评价模型，得到地震灾区泥石流危险等级分区图。通过评价，初步认识到研究区内芦山县、天全县、名山区、雨城区位于泥石流极高危险区，且评价分区结果与区内地灾点分布特征相吻合     

基于GIS技术的洪水淹没计算分析系统建立与应用

洪水淹没范围的计算分析是防汛救灾管理和灾害损失评估的核心任务,而利用高新技术对洪水进行监测管理、计算分析和灾害损失评估,一直是防汛应急管理工作的薄弱环节。为此,探讨防洪流域洪水淹没计算分析系统的解决方案和实现方法,对应用系统的软硬件环境、体系结构、系统内容、系统功能和技术特点等进行详细说明,采用较为成熟的模型技术和计算机手段,研究建立基于GIS技术的洪水淹没计算分析系统,实现多源数据管理、洪水演进模拟、淹没范围计算和灾害损失评估等功能,并在海子水库防汛救灾管理工作中运行良好。应用结果表明：所采用的技术方法和分析模型能准确地计算模拟洪水淹没范围;洪水淹没面积的计算精度以及灾害评估和预测分析的准确性主要取决于空间数据精度的优劣和相关统计数据的完备程度。     

Assessment of groundwater potential in Tirukalukundram block of southern Chennai Metropolitan Area

Groundwater is an important resource in all major urban centres. Continuous extraction leads to degradation and depletion in the water quality which can be protected by selecting proper groundwater recharging techniques. The present study aims to determine the groundwater potential by integrating the remote sensing and geographic information system which helps to identify the locations which are in critical stage and immediate steps can be taken to recharge the groundwater. Thirukalukundram block of Kanchipuram district in Tami Nadu, India, has been chosen as study area. To demarcate the groundwater potential zone, surface attributes such as geomorphology, land use/land cover, contour map, drainage density and sub-surface attributes such as lineaments and soil maps are created using satellite imageries, toposheet, soil and geomorphology data of the study area. The thematic maps prepared using geographic information system and weights have been assigned to the attributes by considering the influence on the storage capacity of groundwater. Four categories of groundwater potential zones such as below low, low, moderate and high have been classified. From the analysis, 5% along the coastal plain area covers high groundwater potential zone, 20% of the area towards north-west and south-west hold moderate groundwater potential. 60% of the total area hold low groundwater potential zone which are located towards south-west direction. 15% of the study area contains below low groundwater potential zone in parts of south-west direction. This study helps to identify the suitable locations for extraction and recharge of groundwater.     

Modeling groundwater flow and its associated environmental problem in a lowland coastal plain: a first step towards a sustainable development plan

Groundwater is an important resource in the alluvial coastal lowland plains. In the Shiroishi lowland plain, southwestern Kyushu Island of Japan, land subsidence due to groundwater development has long been recognized as an environmental issue. Land subsidence can have several negative economic and social implications. In this study, an integrated numerical groundwater and land subsidence model, which combines a three-dimensional numerical groundwater flow model and a one-dimensional soil consolidation model, was used to simulate the dynamic groundwater flow and ground subsidence due to pumping. On the other hand, a groundwater optimization model was also formulated to search for an optimal safe yield of groundwater pumping without violating physical, environmental, social-economic constraints. The model results reveal that groundwater levels in the aquifers greatly vary from season to season in response to varying climatic and pumping conditions. Consequently, land subsidence has rapidly occurred throughout the area with the central prone in Shiroishi plain. The study also proposes a countermeasure against subsiding process in the area by means of numerical models. The optimization model result suggests that pumping can be increased in the northern part of the study area without leading to significant land subsidence.     

Use of geographic information systems for assessing groundwater pollution potential by pesticides in Central Thailand

This study employed geographic information systems (GIS) technology to evaluate the vulnerability of groundwater to pesticide pollution in Thailand. The study area included three provinces, Kanchana Buri, Ratcha Buri, and Suphan Buri, located in west-central Thailand. Factors used for the vulnerability assessment included soil texture, slope, land use, well depth, and rainfall. These vulnerability factors were reclassified to a common scale, and a weighted average was computed to yield a vulnerability score. Vulnerability factors and weights were assigned considering pesticide concentrations in 90 wells throughout the study area. Well depth was the most significant vulnerability factor. Groundwater vulnerability maps were generated for several pesticides. The eastern, agricultural part of the study area has relatively deep wells and fine soils. Shallow wells are present in the mountainous west; however, fewer pesticides are applied in that region. Consequently, much of the study area had a medium groundwater vulnerability rating, although there were pockets of high vulnerability, for example, in agricultural areas with shallow wells. The groundwater vulnerability maps are effective for identifying locations warranting more detailed groundwater pollution and vulnerability investigations.     

A study on the significance of lithology in groundwater quality of Madurai district, Tamil Nadu (India)

The groundwater occurs in hard rock aquifers, which is more predominant in India. It is more common in the southern peninsula especially Tamil Nadu. Madurai district is located in the central part of Tamil Nadu, underlain predominantly by crystalline formations and alluvium along the river course. The study area being a hard rock terrain, the groundwater is stored in cracks, fissures, joints, etc., and hence the quantity is lesser. The frequent failure of monsoon also aggravates the scarcity of this commodity. In this scenario, the quality and hydrogeochemistry of the available quantum of water plays a significant role for the determination of its utility and in tracing out the hydrogeochemical evaluation. Fifty-four groundwater samples were collected representing the entire study area. The samples collected were representative covering all the major litho units of the study area (charnockite -21, fissile hornblende biotite gneiss-21, granite-4, quartzite-3, and 5 samples from flood plain alluvium). The samples collected were analyzed for major ions and were classified for different purposes like drinking, domestic, and agriculture, with respect to lithology. The comparison of the groundwater samples with the drinking water standards shows that few samples fall above the drinking water limit irrespective of lithology. The samples were classified with sodium absorption ratio, electrical conductivity, residual sodium carbonate, sodium percentage (Na %), Kellys ratio, and magnesium hazard, and permeability index for irrigation purpose found that most of the samples were suitable for irrigation purpose irrespective of lithology. Total hardness and corrosivity index were studied for the domestic purpose and found that the samples of the granitic terrain are safe. Apart from this, index of base exchange, Schoellers water type, Stuyfzands classification were attempted along with Gibbs plot to determine the major geochemical activity of the region. The study reveals that the samples collected from granitic and quartzitic terrains are comparatively better for the domestic and drinking purpose due to the presence of resistant minerals to weathering.     

荆州市浅层地下水环境质量综合评价与分区

通过实地调查荆州市浅层地下水环境，合理选择评价指标集（16项），分别采用模糊数学综合评价法和F值法对该浅层地下水环境质量进行综合评价，分析对比两种方法的评价结果，对浅层地下水环境进行分区和污染分析。评价结果表明：浅层地下水环境质量不容乐观，整体状况较差。浅层地下水中主要超标组分为Fe、Mn、NO-3、NO-2、As、Ba等，对比分析荆州市2006~2011年主要超标组分的平均含量，可知6 a来，Fe、Mn、NO-2的平均含量均超过地下水Ⅲ类水质标准，NO-3、As、Ba的平均含量虽然均未超过地下水Ⅲ类水质标准，但其平均含量呈现随着年份递增的趋势。浅层地下水环境质量分区结果显示：严重区面积为2 623 km2约占305%，较严重面积为1 33128 km2约占1548%，合格区面积为3 07192 km2约占3572%，较好区面积为1 5738 km2仅占183%。浅层地下水环境质量在很大程度上不仅受当地特有的区域原生地质环境影响，还与人类活动有密切关系