Habitat and population modelling of roe deer using an interactive geographic information system

Management of German roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) populations is a challenge for wildlife managers and foresters because population densities are difficult to estimate in forests and forest regeneration can be negatively affected when roe deer density is high. We describe a model to determine deer population densities compatible with forest management goals, and to assess harvest rates necessary to maintain desired deer densities. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to model wildlife habitat and population dynamics over time. Our model interactively incorporates knowledge of field biologists and foresters via a graphical user interface (GUI). Calibration of the model with deer damage maps allowed us to evaluate density dependence of a roe deer population. Incorporation of local knowledge into temporally dynamic and spatial models increases understanding of population dynamics and improves wildlife management.     

Ungulate population dynamics and optimization models

Optimal harvesting strategies for an ungulate population are estimated using stochastic dynamic programming. Data on the Llano Basin white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) population were used to construct a 2-variable population dynamics model. The model provided the basis for estimating optimal harvesting strategies as a feedback function of the current values of the state variables (prefawning older deer and juveniles). Optimal harvest strategies were insensitive to assumptions about the probability distributions of the stochastic variable (rainfall). The response of the population components to harvesting and the returns obtained from applying optimal strategies were explored through simulation. Mean annual harvest is about 15% of the population. Simplified harvesting strategies based on age-ratios as well as a simplified version based on optimal strategies—but assuming persisting equilibrium juvenile deer density—were compared to optimal strategies through examining values of information. Simplified harvesting strategies lead to a lower harvest over a 50-year simulation period.     

Effects of Harvest of Nontimber Forest Products and Ecological Differences between Sites on the Demography of African Mahogany

Abstract: The demographic impacts of harvesting nontimber forest products (NTFP) have been increasingly studied because of reports of potentially unsustainable harvest. Nevertheless, our understanding of how plant demographic response to harvest is altered by variation in ecological conditions, which is critical for developing realistic sustainable‐use plans, is limited. We built matrix population models to test whether and how variation in ecological conditions affects population responses to harvest. In particular, we examined the effect of bark and foliage harvest on the demography of populations of African mahogany (Khaya senegalensis) in two contrasting ecological regions of Benin, West Africa. K. senegalensis bark and foliage harvest significantly reduced its stochastic population growth rates, but ecological differences between regions had a greater effect on population growth rates than did harvest. The effect of harvest on population growth rates (Δλ) was slightly stronger in the moist than in the drier region. Life‐table response experiments revealed that the mechanism by which harvesting reduced λ differed between ecological regions. Lowered stasis (persistence) of larger life stages lead to a reduction in λ in the drier region, whereas lowered growth of all life stages lowered λ in moist region. Potential strategies to increase population growth rates should include decreasing the proportion of individuals harvested, promoting harvester‐owned plantations of African mahogany, and increasing survival and growth by promoting no‐fire zones in gallery forests. Our results show how population responses to harvest of NTFP may be altered by ecological differences across sites and emphasize the importance of monitoring populations over the climatic range in which they occur to develop more realistic recommendations for conservation.     

Harvest in a fluctuating environment and conservative harvest for the Fox surplus production model

Relations between optimal yield and abundance in a fluctuating environment and conditions for a conservative level of harvest were obtained for the Fox surplus production model and compared with those for the logistic surplus production model. Environmental variation was included in the optimization of harvest with the Fox surplus production model to obtain a relation in which the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and biomass at the MSY varied as the environment varied. The relation can be applied for management of fisheries at the optimum levels in a fluctuating environment. For both models there is only one maximum sustainable yield under equilibrium conditions, but in a variable environment the maximum sustainable yield and optimum biomass and effort vary as the environment varies. The results were applied to the blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) fishery of the Chesapeake Bay. Although several numerical results for the logistic and Fox models were similar, the parameter estimates were different and the Fox model predicted a much larger decrease in population abundance at the MSY. Harvesting at a conservative level with either the Fox model or the logistic model could increase blue crab abundance substantially with little decrease in harvest. At a conservative level of harvest, there is a 20% increase in biomass with a 6% decrease in yield for the logistic model and a 37% increase in biomass with a 9% decrease in yield for the Fox model. Both the Fox and the logistic surplus production models indicate that the blue crab fishery has been consistently over harvested.     

Testing sustainability by prospective and retrospective demographic analyses: evaluation for palm leaf harvest.

Harvesting nontimber forest products (NTFPs) is a major economic activity in tropical forests. As many NTFPs are overexploited, sustainability analyses are required to set harvest guidelines. Here we introduce and apply a new approach to evaluating sustainability, which combines prospective (elasticity) and retrospective (Life Table Response Experiments [LTRE]) demographic analyses of matrix population models. We relate the elasticity of vital rates (representing their importance for population growth rate, lamda) to their contribution to harvest-induced change in lamda ("LTRE contribution"). When high-elasticity vital rates have a low LTRE contribution, exploitation is potentially sustainable as negative effects for population growth are buffered. If the reverse is found, there is little scope for sustainability because crucial vital rates are affected. Our approach is less sensitive to chance fluctuations than the commonly used sustainability criterion of lamda = 1.0, as it does not depend on the absolute value of lamda. We applied this analysis to Geonoma deversa, a clustered forest understory palm. We studied three experimentally defoliated and control populations in a Bolivian rainforest during two years. Cutting all leaves of large ramets did not change mortality but strongly affected growth and reproduction. In spite of severe changes in some vital rates, population growth rate was not significantly reduced after defoliation. A literature review revealed that six other understory palms species responded very similarly to defoliation. The combination of LTRE contributions and elasticity analyses showed that low-elasticity vital rates were mainly responsible for the defoliation-induced change in lamda for Geonoma deversa. For two other understory palms (Astrocaryum mexicanum and Chamaedorea radicalis) new demographic analyses yielded very similar results. For Geonoma, the LTRE contribution-elasticity relation strongly changed when we mimicked harvest damage. Adding 5% mortality to defoliated palms caused stronger change in lamda, mainly due to changes in a high-elasticity vital rate (survival). Therefore, harvest practices that involve stem killing are clearly unsustainable. Our results show that commercial leaf cutting in Geonoma deversa is potentially sustainable, and that this is likely the case for understory palms in general. Our approach to evaluating harvest sustainability can be applied to other NTFPs.     

Incorporating known sources of uncertainty to determine precautionary harvests of saltwater crocodiles.

It has been demonstrated repeatedly that the degree to which regulation operates and the magnitude of environmental variation in an exploited population will together dictate the type of sustainable harvest achievable. Yet typically, harvest models fail to incorporate uncertainty in the underlying dynamics of the target population by assuming a particular (unknown) form of endogenous control. We use a novel approach to estimate the sustainable yield of saltwater crocodile (Crocodylus porosus) populations from major river systems in the Northern Territory, Australia, as an example of a system with high uncertainty. We used multimodel inference to incorporate three levels of uncertainty in yield estimation: (1) uncertainty in the choice of the underlying model(s) used to describe population dynamics, (2) the error associated with the precision and bias of model parameter estimation, and (3) environmental fluctuation (process error). We demonstrate varying strength of evidence for density regulation (1.3-96.7%) for crocodiles among 19 river systems by applying a continuum of five dynamical models (density-independent with and without drift and three alternative density-dependent models) to time series of density estimates. Evidence for density dependence increased with the number of yearly transitions over which each river system was monitored. Deterministic proportional maximum sustainable yield (PMSY) models varied widely among river systems (0.042-0.611), and there was strong evidence for an increasing PMSY as support for density dependence rose. However, there was also a large discrepancy between PMSY values and those produced by the full stochastic simulation projection incorporating all forms of uncertainty, which can be explained by the contribution of process error to estimates of sustainable harvest. We also determined that a fixed-quota harvest strategy (up to 0.2K, where K is the carrying capacity) reduces population size much more rapidly than proportional harvest (the latter strategy requiring temporal monitoring of population size to adjust harvest quotas) and greatly inflates the risk of resource depletion. Using an iconic species recovering from recent extreme overexploitation to examine the potential for renewed sustainable harvest, we have demonstrated that incorporating major forms of uncertainty into a single quantitative framework provides a robust approach to modeling the dynamics of exploited populations.     

The meaning of mainland Portugal beaches and dunes’ psammophilic plant communities: a contribution to tourism management and nature conservation

Due to their position of interface between the sea and land, the flora and vegetation of coastal beaches and dunes, occupy ecologically extreme, sensitive, unique and valuable habitats. The occurrence of a large number of endemic taxa and specific plant associations endowed with key ecological services and adapted to a stressful and harsh environmental gradient, gives them a high interest for nature conservation and an important role in sustainable territorial planning. However, such ecosystems are vulnerable to the disruption caused by several anthropogenic sources. Among other global threat factors, the inevitable sea rise caused by climate change and, at a local scale, the non-negligible implications of trampling caused by disorderly coastal touristic exploitation, growing construction pressure in the littoral, and a seasonal population boom in late spring and in summer, plus all derivate forms of pollution, are threat factors to their integrity. Therefore, a correct planning of the touristic economic activities requires the understanding of the vegetation composition and spatial distribution patterns, intrinsically determined by their biogeographic context in the Euro-Siberian or Mediterranean Regions. This comprehensive work, based on a broad phytogeographic study, brings together disperse information on plant communities of the Portuguese sandy coasts (beaches and dunes), by analysing floristic compositions, chorology and ecological characteristics, and matching them with the “Nature 2000” network habitats. Resilience and vulnerability are also studied. In a nature conservation perspective, a positive balance (and a sustainable co-existence) between the preservation of natural values and human development in the Portuguese coast, will benefit with the integration of this knowledge in coastal planning and management activities.     

Modeling the population dynamics of cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) over a wide area in northern China

The cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is one of the most serious crop pests in northern China, calling for accurate prediction of pest outbreaks and strategies for pest control. A computer model is developed to simulate the population dynamics of H. armigera over a wide area in northern China. The area considered covers 12 provinces where serious outbreaks of H. armigera have been observed. In this model, pest development is driven by local ambient temperature, and adults migrate long distances between regions and select preferred hosts for oviposition within a region. Six types of host including cotton, wheat, corn, peanut, soybean and a single category composed of all other minor hosts are considered in this model. Survival rates of eggs and larvae are based on life-table data, and simulated as a function of host type, host phenology and temperature. The incidence of diapause depends on temperature and photoperiod experienced during the larval stage. Survival rate of non-diapause pupae is a nonlinear function of rainfall, and overwinter survival rate is a nonlinear function of temperature. Insecticide is applied when population density exceeds the economic threshold on a host crop within a region. Comparisons of model output with light-trap data indicate that our model reflects the pest population dynamics over a wide area, and could potentially be used for testing novel pest control strategies in northern China.     

Effects of Harvesting Flowers from Shrubs on the Persistence and Abundance of Wild Shrub Populations at Multiple Spatial Extents

Abstract: Wildflower harvesting is an economically important activity of which the ecological effects are poorly understood. We assessed how harvesting of flowers affects shrub persistence and abundance at multiple spatial extents. To this end, we built a process‐based model to examine the mean persistence and abundance of wild shrubs whose flowers are subject to harvest (serotinous Proteaceae in the South African Cape Floristic Region). First, we conducted a general sensitivity analysis of how harvesting affects persistence and abundance at nested spatial extents. For most spatial extents and combinations of demographic parameters, persistence and abundance of flowering shrubs decreased abruptly once harvesting rate exceeded a certain threshold. At larger extents, metapopulations supported higher harvesting rates before their persistence and abundance decreased, but persistence and abundance also decreased more abruptly due to harvesting than at smaller extents. This threshold rate of harvest varied with species’ dispersal ability, maximum reproductive rate, adult mortality, probability of extirpation or local extinction, strength of Allee effects, and carrying capacity. Moreover, spatial extent interacted with Allee effects and probability of extirpation because both these demographic properties affected the response of local populations to harvesting more strongly than they affected the response of metapopulations. Subsequently, we simulated the effects of harvesting on three Cape Floristic Region Proteaceae species and found that these species reacted differently to harvesting, but their persistence and abundance decreased at low rates of harvest. Our estimates of harvesting rates at maximum sustainable yield differed from those of previous investigations, perhaps because researchers used different estimates of demographic parameters, models of population dynamics, and spatial extent than we did. Good demographic knowledge and careful identification of the spatial extent of interest increases confidence in assessments and monitoring of the effects of harvesting. Our general sensitivity analysis improved understanding of harvesting effects on metapopulation dynamics and allowed qualitative assessment of the probability of extirpation of poorly studied species.     

The effects of forest harvest intensity in combination with wind disturbance on carbon dynamics in Lake States Mesic Forests

Total forest carbon (C) storage is determined by succession, disturbances, climate, and the edaphic properties of a site or region. Forest harvesting substantially affects C dynamics; these effects may be amplified if forest harvesting is intensified to provide biofuel feedstock. We tested the effects of harvest intensity on landscape C using a simulation modeling approach that included C dynamics, multiple disturbances, and successional changes in composition. We developed a new extension for the LANDIS-II forest landscape disturbance and succession model that incorporates belowground soil C dynamics derived from the CENTURY soil model. The extension was parameterized and calibrated using data from an experimental forest in northeastern Wisconsin, USA. We simulated a 9800 ha forested landscape over 400 years with wind disturbance combined with no harvesting, harvesting with residual slash left on site (‘standard harvest’), and whole-tree harvesting. We also simulated landscapes without wind disturbance and without eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) to examine the effects of detrital quantity and quality on C dynamics. We estimated changes in live C, detrital C, soil organic C, total C, and forest composition. Overall, the simulations without harvesting had substantially greater total C and continued to sequester C. Standard harvest simulations had more C than the whole tree harvest simulations. Under both harvest regimes, C accrual was not evident after 150 years. Without hemlock, SOC was reduced due to a decline in detritus and a shift in detrital chemistry. In conclusion, if the intensity of harvesting increases we can expect a corresponding reduction in potential C storage. Compositional changes due to historic circumstances (loss of hemlock) may also affect forest C although to a lesser degree than harvesting. The modeling approach presented enabled us to consider multiple, interacting drivers of landscape change and the subsequent changes in forest C.     

Serial depletion of marine invertebrates leads to the decline of a strongly interacting grazer.

We investigated the relative roles of natural factors and shoreline harvest leading to recent declines of the black leather chiton (Katharina tunicata) on the outer Kenai Peninsula, Alaska (U.S.A.). This intertidal mollusk is a strongly interacting grazer and a culturally important subsistence fishery for Sugpiaq (Chugach Alutiiq) natives. We took multiple approaches to determine causes of decline. Field surveys examined the significant predictors of Katharina density and biomass across 11 sites varying in harvest pressure, and an integrated analysis of archaeological faunal remains, historical records, traditional ecological knowledge, and contemporary subsistence invertebrate landings examined changes in subsistence practices through time. Strong evidence suggests that current spatial variation in Katharina density and biomass is driven by both human exploitation and sea otter (Enhydra lutris) predation. Traditional knowledge, calibrated by subsistence harvest data, further revealed that several benthic marine invertebrates (sea urchin, crab, clams, and cockles) have declined serially beginning in the 1960s, with reduced densities and sizes of Katharina being the most recent. The timing of these declines was coincident with changes in human behavior (from semi-nomadic to increasingly permanent settlement patterns, improved extractive technologies, regional commercial crustacean exploitation, the erosion of culturally based season and size restrictions) and with the reestablishment of sea otters. We propose that a spatial concentration in shoreline collection pressure through time, increased harvest efficiency, and the serial depletion of alternative marine invertebrate prey have led to intensified per capita predator impacts on Katharina and thus its recent localized decline.     

Computer simulation applied to the biological control of the insect Aphis gossypii for the parasitoid Lysiphlebus testaceipes

In integrated pest management (IPM), biological control is one of the possible options for the prevention or remediation of an unacceptable pest activity or damage. The success of forecast models in IPM depends, among other factors, on the knowledge of temperature effect over pests and its natural enemies. In this work, we simulated the effects of parasitism of Lysiphlebus testaceipes (Cresson, 1880) (Hymenoptera: Aphidiidae) on Aphis gossypii (Glover, 1877) (Hemiptera: Aphididae), a pest that is associated to crops of great economic importance in several parts of the world. We made use of experimental data relative to the host and its parasitoid at different temperatures. Age structure was incorporated into the dynamics through the Penna model. The results obtained showed that simulation, as a forecast model, can be a useful tool for biological control programs.     

The Sustainability of Subsistence Hunting in the Neotropics

Hunting is an important component of native subsistence strategies in Amazonia. It is also a serious threat to biodiversity in some areas. We present data on the faunal harvests of two native Neotropical subsistence hunting peoples, Machiguenga bow-hunters and Piro shotgun hunters of Peru. The rate of annual harvest per square kilometer of catchment is estimated and compared to rates of sustainable harvest calculated by Robinson and Redford (1991). We used indicators of prey abundance to test for the depletion of species that hunters killed in numbers greater than what the model predicts to be sustainable. As predicted, we found the strongest evidence for local depletion of the large primates at the Piro site. The woolly monkey ( Lagothrix lagothricha) harvest at the Machiguenga village and the deer ( Mazama americana) and collared peccary (Tayassu tajacu) harvests at both sites were not predicted to be unsustainable and we found no evidence for depletion. Machiguenga bow hunters killed spider monkeys (Ateles paniscus) in quantities that were slightly above what the model predicted to be sustainable, yet we found no evidence for depletion. Differential species vulnerability, catchment size, and consumer population size could be important factors in determining sustainability.     

The effects of groundwater table and flood irrigation strategies on soil water and salt dynamics and reed water use in the Yellow River Delta, China

Vegetation management in shallow groundwater table environments requires an understanding of the interactions between the physical and biological factors that determine root-zone soil salinization and moisture. In this study, the effects of groundwater depth and flood irrigation strategies on water and salt dynamics and reed water use were analyzed in the shallow groundwater region of the Yellow River Delta in China using the HYDRUS-1D model. The results indicated that there is a conflict between water, salt stress, and reed water use with variations in groundwater depth. A water table depth of 3.5 m is the minimum limit to maintain a safe level of soil salinity, but at this depth, the environmental stress on reeds is worsened by the decrease in soil water storage. Maintaining the flood pulses on the wetland, especially during May, may be critical for restoring the reed wetland in the Yellow River Delta.     

Spatial and mass balanced trophic models of La Rinconada Marine Reserve (SE Pacific coast), a protected benthic ecosystem: Management strategy assessment

Steady-state, dynamic, and spatial models were constructed for the benthic system of La Rinconada Marine Reserve off northern Chile (SE Pacific coast). We examined data on biomass, P/B ratios, catches, food spectrum, consumption, and the dynamics of commercial and non-commercial populations using three theoretical frameworks: Ecopath, Ecosim, and Ecospace. The biomass of the scallop Argopecten purpuratus and the clam Tagelus dombeii were the most relevant compartments of the studied ecosystem. Among the carnivores, the functional crab group Cancer spp. was the most relevant. The Rhodophyta was the dominant macroalga compartment of the system. The results obtained using mixed trophic impacts (MTI) showed that the predatory snail Thais chocolata propagated higher magnitudes of direct and indirect effects on the other species or functional groups. The sea star Luidia magallanica and Rhodophyta had the least effects on the remaining compartments. According to the Ecosim estimates (increasing mortality by fishing), the scallop A. purpuratus had the highest impact on the other compartments. The Ecospace model showed similar qualitative and quantitative effects for changes in biomass under three different exploitation scenarios (by subsystems and globally). Nevertheless, the greatest changes were provoked by using the top-down control and the vulnerabilities estimated by Ecosim. System recovery times were highest with increased mortality of the asteroid L. magallanica and the carnivorous snail T. chocolata, suggesting that the sea star could be considered to be a top predator with a top-down control. The F_MSY estimated for the scallop A. purpuratus was close to the F_i originally entered in Ecopath, limiting the design and execution of an exploitation plan within ecologically sustainable boundaries. The situation was different (F_MSY ? F_i) for the other commercial species, making possible multi-species exploitation programs. The Ecospace trophic-spatially explicit model shows a similar pattern of direct and indirect effects generated when exerting exploitation separately by subsystems. Therefore, habitat rotation of fisheries is not justified.     

Integrating empirical and heuristic knowledge in a KBS to approach stream eutrophication

The nutrient enrichment of rivers and its consequences are among the most severe water quality problems in Europe, causing eutrophication and other problems. The decision-making processes involved in the management of these problems require extensive human expertise from people who deal directly with day-to-day stream problems, as well as empirical knowledge based on scientific research. This means that eutrophication is a complex problem, the optimal management of which requires an integrated and multidisciplinary approach. This approach can be taken using a Knowledge-Based System (KBS) built upon the concepts and methods of human reasoning. Accordingly, a KBS was developed within the STREAMES project. In this KBS most of the knowledge needed for managing eutrophication problems was organised and structured in the form of a decision tree (DT). The methodology specially developed to build this KBS, as well as the internal structure of the eutrophication decision tree, is presented here. The good DT obtained led to consider the KBS a suitable tool to support the management of eutrophication.     

A stochastic simulation model of brown shrimp (Penaeus aztecus ives) growth,movement, and survival in Galveston Bay,Texas

A stochastic simulation model of brown shrimp (Penaeus aztecus Ives) population dynamics in Galveston Bay, Texas, is described, validated, and used to evaluate the effects of management alternatives and changing environmental conditions on shrimp dynamics. The model is composed of submodels representing: (1) recruitment, (2) growth, (3) natural mortality, (4) fishing mortality, and (5) emigration of brown shrimp. The model predicts significant changes in total annual harvest from the food shrimp, bait, and recreational fisheries resulting from (1) closure of the bay system to all fishing except during the spring and fall open seasons, (2) two-week postponement of the opening and closing of the open seasons for the food shrimp fishery, (3) a 2.5°C increase and (4) a 2.5°C decrease in mean water temperature, (5) an 80% increase and (6) an 80% decrease in fishing effort. No significant change in the total annual harvest is predicted when the food shrimp fishing season is extended from May 15 through December 15. Sensitivity analysis suggests that field experimentation designed specifically to test the hypothesis of a 60-day time lag between brown shrimp recruitment into the bays and exposure to the fishery should receive high priority. Simulation results are discussed within a management framework.     

Simulation of annual productivity and long-term population trends of white-winged doves in the Tamaulipan Biotic Province

We present a model that synthesizes decades of field data on white-winged doves (Zenaida asiatica asiatica; WWDO) in the Tamaulipan Biotic Province. The model is represented as a discrete-time, deterministic compartment model based on difference equations with a one-week time step designed to simulate annual productivity and long-term trends in abundance. We evaluated the model by comparing simulated annual productivity and long-term population trends to field data. Based on simulation results, we identified apparent inconsistencies in the database; we could not generate the observed annual production index with the model parameterized based on field nest success and survivorship data, nor could we generate a stable long-term population trend with the model parameterized based on suggested sustainable harvest rates and empirically-based estimates of migratory return rates. Simulation results suggest that nest success might be closer to 22% (rather than 35%). A similar trend resulted when simulated hunting pressure was increased by 25% (to 31%), or return rates of migrating juveniles and adults were decreased by 5.5 and 5.0%, to 69 and 77%, respectively, with all other values at the baseline level. For these reasons, until better estimates of nest success and migratory return rates are available, model predictions must be viewed with caution.     

Modelling the responses of wildlife to human disturbance: An evaluation of alternative management scenarios for black-crowned night-herons

The impact of anthropogenic disturbance on wildlife is increasing becoming a source of concern as the popularity of outdoor recreation rises. There is now more pressure on site managers to simultaneously ensure the continued persistence of wildlife and provide recreational opportunities. Using ‘Simulation of Disturbance Activities’, a model designed to investigate the impact of recreational disturbance on wildlife, we demonstrate how a simulation modelling approach can effectively inform such management decisions. As an example, we explored the implications of various design and management options for a proposed recreational area containing a historic breeding bird colony. By manipulating the proximity, orientation and intensity of recreation, we were able to evaluate the impact of recreational activities on the behaviour of black-crowned night-heron nestlings (Nycticorax nycticorax). Using a classification and regression tree (CART) procedure to analyse simulation output, we explored the dynamics of multiple strategies in concert. Our analysis revealed that there are inherent advantages in implementing multiple strategies as opposed to any single strategy. Nestlings were not disturbed by recreation when bird-watching facility placement (proximity and orientation) and type were considered in combination. In comparison, proximity alone only led to a <10% reduction in disturbance. Thus we demonstrate how simulation models based on customised empirical data can bridge the gap between field studies and active management, enabling users to test novel management scenarios that are otherwise logistically difficult. Furthermore, such models potentially have broad application in understanding human-wildlife interactions (e.g. exploring the implications of roads on wildlife, probability of bird strikes around airports, etc.). They therefore represent a valuable decision-making tool in the ecological design of urban infrastructures.