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1.
In this paper we examine the use of data augmentation techniques for simplifying iterative simulation in the context of both
Bayesian and classical statistical inference for survival rate estimation. We examine two distinct model families common in
population ecology to illustrate our ideas, ring-recovery models and capture–recapture models, and we present the computational
advantage of this approach. We discuss also the fact that problems associated with identifiability in the classical framework
can be overcome using data augmentation, but highlight the dangers in doing so under both inferential paradigms.
相似文献
I. C. OlsenEmail: |
2.
The influence of multiple anchored fish aggregating devices (FADs) on the spatial behavior of yellowfin (Thunnus albacares) and bigeye tuna (T. obesus) was investigated by equipping all thirteen FADs surrounding the island of Oahu (HI, USA) with automated sonic receivers
(“listening stations”) and intra-peritoneally implanting individually coded acoustic transmitters in 45 yellowfin and 12 bigeye
tuna. Thus, the FAD network became a multi-element passive observatory of the residence and movement characteristics of tuna
within the array. Yellowfin tuna were detected within the FAD array for up to 150 days, while bigeye tuna were only observed
up to a maximum of 10 days after tagging. Only eight yellowfin tuna (out of 45) and one bigeye tuna (out of 12) visited FADs
other than their FAD of release. Those nine fish tended to visit nearest neighboring FADs and, in general, spent more time
at their FAD of release than at the others. Fish visiting the same FAD several times or visiting other FADs tended to stay
longer in the FAD network. A majority of tagged fish exhibited some synchronicity when departing the FADs but not all tagged
fish departed a FAD at the same time: small groups of tagged fish left together while others remained. We hypothesize that
tuna (at an individual or collective level) consider local conditions around any given FAD to be representative of the environment
on a larger scale (e.g., the entire island) and when those conditions become unfavorable the tuna move to a completely different
area. Thus, while the anchored FADs surrounding the island of Oahu might concentrate fish and make them more vulnerable to
fishing, at a meso-scale they might not entrain fish longer than if there were no (or very few) FADs in the area. At the existing
FAD density, the ‘island effect’ is more likely to be responsible for the general presence of fish around the island than
the FADs. We recommend further investigation of this hypothesis.
相似文献
Laurent Dagorn (Corresponding author)Email: |
Kim N. HollandEmail: |
David G. ItanoEmail: |
3.
Matthew R. Schofield Richard J. Barker Darryl I. MacKenzie 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(3):369-387
Hierarchical mark-recapture models offer three advantages over classical mark-recapture models: (i) they allow expression
of complicated models in terms of simple components; (ii) they provide a convenient way of modeling missing data and latent
variables in a way that allows expression of relationships involving latent variables in the model; (iii) they provide a convenient
way of introducing parsimony into models involving many nuisance parameters. Expressing models using the complete data likelihood
we show how many of the standard mark-recapture models for open populations can be readily fitted using the software WinBUGS.
We include examples that illustrate fitting the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model, multi-state and multi-event models, models including
auxiliary data, and models including density dependence.
相似文献
Darryl I. MacKenzieEmail: |
4.
When animals die in traps in a mark-recapture study, straightforward likelihood inferences are possible in a class of models.
The class includes M0, Mt, and Mb as reported by White et al. (Los Alamos National Laboratory, LA-8787-NERP, pp 235, 1982), those that do not involve heterogeneity.
We include three Markov chain “persistence” models and show that they provide good fits in a trapping study of deer mice in
the Cascade-Siskiyou National Monument of Southern Oregon where trapping mortality was high.
相似文献
Fred L. RamseyEmail: |
5.
Frederic Paik Schoenberg Jamie Pompa Chien-Hsun Chang 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(2):251-269
This paper explores the use of, and problems that arise in, kernel smoothing and parametric estimation of the relationships
between wildfire incidence and various meteorological variables. Such relationships may be treated as components in separable
point process models for wildfire activity. The resulting models can be used for comparative purposes in order to assess the
predictive performance of the Burning Index.
相似文献
Frederic Paik SchoenbergEmail: |
6.
B. Gail Ivanoff 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(2):153-171
The concept of the renewal property is extended to processes indexed by a multidimensional time parameter. The definition
given includes not only partial sum processes, but also Poisson processes and many other point processes whose jump points
are not totally ordered. Various properties of renewal processes are discussed. Renewal processes are proposed as a basis
for modelling the spread of a forest fire under a prevailing wind.
相似文献
B. Gail IvanoffEmail: |
7.
We propose a hierarchical modeling approach for explaining a collection of spatially referenced time series of extreme values.
We assume that the observations follow generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions whose locations and scales are jointly
spatially dependent where the dependence is captured using multivariate Markov random field models specified through coregionalization.
In addition, there is temporal dependence in the locations. There are various ways to provide appropriate specifications;
we consider four choices. The models can be fitted using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to enable inference for
parameters and to provide spatio–temporal predictions. We fit the models to a set of gridded interpolated precipitation data
collected over a 50-year period for the Cape Floristic Region in South Africa, summarizing results for what appears to be
the best choice of model.
相似文献
Alan E. GelfandEmail: |
8.
Chang Xuan Mao 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2007,14(4):473-481
Consider the removal experiment used to estimate population sizes. Statistical methods towards testing the homogeneity of
capture probabilities of animals, including a graphical diagnostic and a formal test, are presented and illustrated by real
biological examples. Simulation is used to assess the test and compare it with the χ2 test.
相似文献
Chang Xuan MaoEmail: |
9.
Brooke E. Buckley Walter W. Piegorsch R. Webster West 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(1):53-62
In modern environmental risk analysis, inferences are often desired on those low dose levels at which a fixed benchmark risk
is achieved. In this paper, we study the use of confidence limits on parameters from a simple one-stage model of risk historically
popular in benchmark analysis with quantal data. Based on these confidence bounds, we present methods for deriving upper confidence
limits on extra risk and lower bounds on the benchmark dose. The methods are seen to extend automatically to the case where
simultaneous inferences are desired at multiple doses. Monte Carlo evaluations explore characteristics of the parameter estimates
and the confidence limits under this setting.
相似文献
R. Webster WestEmail: |
10.
Glen D. Johnson 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2008,15(3):293-311
Infectious disease surveillance has become an international top priority due to the perceived risk of bioterrorism. This is
driving the improvement of real-time geo-spatial surveillance systems for monitoring disease indicators, which is expected
to have many benefits beyond detecting a bioterror event. West Nile Virus surveillance in New York State (USA) is highlighted
as a working system that uses dead American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) to prospectively indicate viral activity prior to human onset. A cross-disciplinary review is then presented to argue that
this system, and infectious disease surveillance in general, can be improved by complementing spatial cluster detection of
an outcome variable with predictive “risk mapping” that incorporates spatiotemporal data on the environment, climate and human
population through the flexible class of generalized linear mixed models.
相似文献
Glen D. JohnsonEmail: |
11.
Benchmark calculations often are made from data extracted from publications. Such data may not be in a form most appropriate
for benchmark analysis, and, as a result, suboptimal and/or non-standard benchmark analyses are often applied. This problem
can be mitigated in some cases using Monte Carlo computational methods that allow the likelihood of the published data to
be calculated while still using an appropriate benchmark dose (BMD) definition. Such an approach is illustrated herein using
data from a study of workers exposed to styrene, in which a hybrid BMD calculation is implemented from dose response data
reported only as means and standard deviations of ratios of scores on neuropsychological tests from exposed subjects to corresponding
scores from matched controls. The likelihood of the data is computed using a combination of analytic and Monte Carlo integration
methods.
相似文献
Kenny S. CrumpEmail: |
12.
Léa Fortunato Chantal Guihenneuc-Jouyaux Margot Tirmarche Dominique Laurier Denis Hémon 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(3):341-353
Ecological studies enable investigation of geographic variations in exposure to environmental variables, across groups, in
relation to health outcomes measured on a geographic scale. Such studies are subject to ecological biases, including pure
specification bias which arises when a nonlinear individual exposure-risk model is assumed to apply at the area level. Introduction
of the within-area variance of exposure should induce a marked reduction in this source of ecological bias. Assuming several
measurements per area of exposure and no confounding risk factors, we study the model including the within-area exposure variability
when Gaussian within-area exposure distribution is assumed. The robustness is assessed when the within-area exposure distribution
is misspecified. Two underlying exposure distributions are studied: the Gamma distribution and an unimodal mixture of two
Gaussian distributions. In case of strong ecological association, this model can reduce the bias and improve the precision
of the individual parameter estimates when the within-area exposure means and variances are correlated. These different models
are applied to analyze the ecological association between radon concentration and childhood acute leukemia in France.
相似文献
Léa FortunatoEmail: |
13.
Den Boychuk W. John Braun Reg J. Kulperger Zinovi L. Krougly David A. Stanford 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(2):133-151
We consider a stochastic fire growth model, with the aim of predicting the behaviour of large forest fires. Such a model can
describe not only average growth, but also the variability of the growth. Implementing such a model in a computing environment
allows one to obtain probability contour plots, burn size distributions, and distributions of time to specified events. Such
a model also allows the incorporation of a stochastic spotting mechanism.
相似文献
Reg J. KulpergerEmail: |
14.
15.
John E. Hathaway G. Bruce Schaalje Richard O. Gilbert Brent A. Pulsipher Brett D. Matzke 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2008,15(3):313-327
Composite sampling can be more cost effective than simple random sampling. This paper considers how to determine the optimum
number of increments to use in composite sampling. Composite sampling terminology and theory are outlined and a method is
developed which accounts for different sources of variation in compositing and data analysis. This method is used to define
and understand the process of determining the optimum number of increments that should be used in forming a composite. The
blending variance is shown to have a smaller range of possible values than previously reported when estimating the number
of increments in a composite sample. Accounting for differing levels of the blending variance significantly affects the estimated
number of increments.
相似文献
John E. HathawayEmail: |
16.
R. Webster West Daniela K. Nitcheva Walter W. Piegorsch 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(1):63-73
A primary objective in quantitative risk assessment is the characterization of risk which is defined to be the likelihood
of an adverse effect caused by an environmental toxin or chemcial agent. In modern risk-benchmark analysis, attention centers
on the “benchmark dose” at which a fixed benchmark level of risk is achieved, with a lower confidence limits on this dose
being of primary interest. In practice, a range of benchmark risks may be under study, so that the individual lower confidence
limits on benchmark dose must be corrected for simultaneity in order to maintain a specified overall level of confidence.
For the case of quantal data, simultaneous methods have been constructed that appeal to the large sample normality of parameter
estimates. The suitability of these methods for use with small sample sizes will be considered. A new bootstrap technique
is proposed as an alternative to the large sample methodology. This technique is evaluated via a simulation study and examples
from environmental toxicology.
相似文献
R. Webster WestEmail: |
17.
Hierarchical spatial point process analysis for a plant community with high biodiversity 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Janine B. Illian Jesper Møller Rasmus P. Waagepetersen 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(3):389-405
A complex multivariate spatial point pattern of a plant community with high biodiversity is modelled using a hierarchical
multivariate point process model. In the model, interactions between plants with different post-fire regeneration strategies
are of key interest. We consider initially a maximum likelihood approach to inference where problems arise due to unknown
interaction radii for the plants. We next demonstrate that a Bayesian approach provides a flexible framework for incorporating
prior information concerning the interaction radii. From an ecological perspective, we are able both to confirm existing knowledge
on species’ interactions and to generate new biological questions and hypotheses on species’ interactions.
相似文献
Rasmus P. WaagepetersenEmail: |
18.
Stefan Krause Lutz Mattner Richard James Tristan Guttridge Mark J. Corcoran Samuel H. Gruber Jens Krause 《Behavioral ecology and sociobiology》2009,63(7):1089-1096
Analyses of animal social networks derived from group-based associations often rely on randomisation methods developed in
ecology (Manly, Ecology 76:1109–1115, 1995) and made available to the animal behaviour community through implementation of a pair-wise swapping algorithm by Bejder
et al. (Anim Behav 56:719–725, 1998). We report a correctable flaw in this method and point the reader to a wider literature on the subject of null models in
the ecology literature. We illustrate the importance of correcting the method using a toy network and use it to make a preliminary
analysis of a network of associations among eagle rays.
相似文献
Stefan KrauseEmail: |
19.
Missing covariate values in linear regression models can be an important problem facing environmental researchers. Existing
missing value treatment methods such as Multiple Imputation (MI), the EM algorithm and Data Augmentation (DA) have the assumption that both observed and unobserved data come from the same distribution,
most commonly a multivariate normal or a conditionally multivariate normal family. These methods do try to incorporate the
missing data mechanism and rely on the assumption of Missing At Random (MAR). We present a DA method which does not rely on
the MAR assumption and can model missing data mechanisms and covariate structure. This method utilizes the Gibbs Sampler as
a tool for incorporating these structures and mechanisms. We apply this method to an ecological data set that relates fish
condition to environmental variables. Notice that the presented DA method detects relationships that are not detected when
other missing data methods are employed.
相似文献
Edward L. BooneEmail: |
20.
David T. Butry 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(2):291-319
This paper examines the effect wildfire mitigation has on broad-scale wildfire behavior. Each year, hundreds of million of
dollars are spent on fire suppression and fuels management applications, yet little is known, quantitatively, of the returns
to these programs in terms of their impact on wildfire extent and intensity. This is especially true when considering that
wildfire management influences and reacts to several, often times confounding factors, including socioeconomic characteristics,
values at risk, heterogeneous landscapes, and climate. Due to the endogenous nature of suppression effort and fuels management
intensity and placement with wildfire behavior, traditional regression models may prove inadequate. Instead, I examine the
applicability of propensity score matching (PSM) techniques in modeling wildfire. This research makes several significant
contributions including: (1) applying techniques developed in labor economics and in epidemiology to evaluate the effects
of natural resource policies on landscapes, rather than on individuals; (2) providing a better understanding of the relationship
between wildfire mitigation strategies and their influence on broad-scale wildfire patterns; (3) quantifying the returns to
suppression and fuels management on wildfire behavior.
相似文献
David T. ButryEmail: |