Use of Project MOHAVE perfluorocarbon tracer data to evaluate source and receptor models

Project MOHAVE was a major monitoring, modeling, and data analysis study whose objectives included the estimation of the contributions of the Mohave Power Project (MPP) and other sources to visibility impairment in the southwestern United States, in particular at Grand Canyon National Park. A major element of Project MOHAVE was the release of perfluorocarbon tracers at MPP and other locations during 50-day summer and 30-day winter intensive study periods. Tracer data (from about 30 locations) were sequestered until several source and receptor models were used to predict tracer concentrations. None of the models was successful in predicting the tracer concentrations; squared correlation coefficients between predicted and measured tracer were all less than 0.2, and most were less than 0.1.     

Use of Project MOHAVE Perfluorocarbon Tracer Data to Evaluate Source and Receptor Models

ABSTRACT

Project MOHAVE was a major monitoring, modeling, and data analysis study whose objectives included the estimation of the contributions of the Mohave Power Project (MPP) and other sources to visibility impairment in the southwestern United States, in particular at Grand Canyon National Park. A major element of Project MOHAVE was the release of perfluorocarbon tracers at MPP and other locations during 50-day summer and 30-day winter intensive study periods. Tracer data (from about 30 locations) were sequestered until several source and receptor models were used to predict tracer concentrations. None of the models was successful in predicting the tracer concentrations; squared correlation coefficients between predicted and measured tracer were all less than 0.2, and most were less than 0.1.     

Characterization of regional transport and dispersion using Project MOHAVE tracer data

Perfluorocarbon tracers were released continuously from several surface locations and one power plant stack location during the winter (30 days) and summer (50 days) intensive studies as part of Project MOHAVE. Tracers were released in winter from the Mohave Power Plant (MPP) and Dangling Rope, UT, located on the shore of Lake Powell near Page, AZ; and in summer from MPP, the Tehachapi Pass between the Mojave Desert and the Central Valley in California, and El Centro, CA, on the California-Mexico border. At the Tehachapi tracer release site six-hour pulses of a separately identifiable perfluorocarbon tracer were released every four days in order to assess the time for the tracer to clear the monitoring network. Daily 24-hr integrated samples were collected at about 30 sites in four states. Limited tracer concentration data with higher time resolution is also available. Graphical displays and analyses identify several regional transport paths, including a convergence zone in the Mojave Desert, the importance of terrain channeling, especially in winter, and a relationship between 24-hr maximum influence function and distance that may prove useful as a scoping tool and to test regional scale air quality models. In winter, Dangling Rope tracer was routinely transported through the entire length of the Grand Canyon, while in summer, MPP tracer was routinely transported over most of Lake Mead.     

Summer Transport Patterns Affecting the Mohave Power Project Emissions

The Mohave Power Project (MPP) is an isolated 1580-MW coal-fired electric generating plant located in Laughlin, NV. Laughlin is a small desert gambling town situated in the lower Colorado River Valley near the junction of three states: Nevada, California, and Arizona. The location of the MPP is approximately 115 km southwest of the western end of the Grand Canyon National Park and about 240 km southwest from the Grand Canyon Village. This paper describes the summer transport patterns of the MPP emittants using illustrated examples from the Project MOHAVE (Measurements of Haze and Visual Effects) 1992 summer intensive study. The intensive study lasted 50 days from mid-July through August and encompassed the major meteorological patterns associated with southwestern U.S. summer meteorology. The MPP emittants were transported toward the Grand Canyon (north to the northeast) during more than 80% of the total hours. Airflow was from the south most of the time due to a combination of the semi-permanent thermal low, differential heating between the Gulf of California and lower Colorado River Valley, and upslope heating of the southern and western slopes of the nearby Colorado Plateau.     

Relating summer ambient particulate sulfur, sulfur dioxide, and light scattering to gaseous tracer emissions from the MOHAVE Power Project

Project MOHAVE was initiated in 1992 to examine the role of emissions from the 1580 MW coal-fired MOHAVE Power Project (MPP) on haze at the Grand Canyon National Park (GCNP), located about 130 km north-north-east of the power plant. Statistical relationships were analyzed between summertime ambient concentrations of a gaseous perfluorocarbon tracer released from MPP and ambient SO2, particulate sulfur, and light scattering to evaluate whether MPP's emissions could be transported to the GCNP and then impact haze levels there. Spatial analyses indicated that particulate sulfur levels were strongly correlated across the monitoring network, regardless of whether the monitoring stations were upwind or downwind of MPP. This indicates that particulate sulfur levels in this region were influenced by distant regional emission sources. A significant particulate sulfur contribution from a point source such as MPP would result in a non-uniform pattern downwind. There was no suggestion of this in the data. Furthermore, correlations between the MPP tracer and ambient particulate sulfur and light scattering at locations in the park were virtually zero for averaging times ranging from 24 hr to 1 hr. Hour-by-hour MPP tracer levels and light scattering were individually examined, and still no positive correlations were detected. Finally, agreement between tracer and particulate sulfur did not improve as a function of meteorological regime, implying that, even during cloudy monsoon days when more rapid conversion of SO2 to particulate sulfur would be expected, there was no evidence for downwind particulate sulfur impacts. Despite the fact that MPP was a large source of SO2 and tracer, neither time series nor correlation analyses were able to detect any meaningful relationship between MPP's SO2 and tracer emission "signals" to particulate sulfur or light scattering.     

Effect of coal-fired power generation on visibility in a nearby national park

The Mohave coal-fired power plant has long been considered a major contributor to visibility impairment in Grand Canyon National Park. The permanent closure of the plant in 2005 provides the opportunity to test this assertion. Although this analysis, based on data from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Environments (IMPROVE) Aerosol Network, shows that fine sulfate levels in the park dropped following the closure, no statistically significant improvement in visibility resulted. Difference-in-differences estimation was used to control for other influences. This finding has important implications for the methods generally employed to attribute visibility reductions to air pollution sources.     

Tracking Regional Background in a Haze Attribution Experiment

ABSTRACT

Emissions from distant source areas are often imagined to provide a steady background to the emissions of whatever local sources are being studied. As part of Project MOHAVE in summer 1992, several air mass markers and an injected stack tracer were measured hourly near the Grand Canyon. Observed haze events generally coincided with transients in methylchloroform and water vapor, which we interpret as endemic tags for air from southern California and the subtropics. The results depict a dynamic regional background.     

Relating Summer Ambient Particulate Sulfur,Sulfur Dioxide,and Light Scattering to Gaseous Tracer Emissions from the MOHAVE Power Project

ABSTRACT

Project MOHAVE was initiated in 1992 to examine the role of emissions from the 1580 MW coal-fired MOHAVE Power Project (MPP) on haze at the Grand Canyon National Park (GCNP), located about 130 km north-northeast of the power plant. Statistical relationships were analyzed between summertime ambient concentrations of a gaseous perfluorocarbon tracer released from MPP and ambient SO₂, particulate sulfur, and light scattering to evaluate whether MPP's emissions could be transported to the GCNP and then impact haze levels there. Spatial analyses indicated that particulate sulfur levels were strongly correlated across the monitoring network, regardless of whether the monitoring stations were upwind or downwind of MPP. This indicates that particulate sulfur levels in this region were influenced by distant regional emission sources. A significant particulate sulfur contribution from a point source such as MPP would result in a non-uniform pattern downwind. There was no suggestion of this in the data.

Furthermore, correlations between the MPP tracer and ambient particulate sulfur and light scattering at locations in the park were virtually zero for averaging times ranging from 24 hr to 1 hr. Hour-by-hour MPP tracer levels and light scattering were individually examined, and still no positive correlations were detected. Finally, agreement between tracer and particulate sulfur did not improve as a function of meteorological regime, implying that, even during cloudy monsoon days when more rapid conversion of SO₂ to par-ticulate sulfur would be expected, there was no evidence for downwind particulate sulfur impacts. Despite the fact that MPP was a large source of SO₂ and tracer, neither time series nor correlation analyses were able to detect any meaningful relationship between MPP's SO₂ and tracer emission “signals” to particulate sulfur or light scattering.     

The effects of scrubber installation at the Navajo Generating Station on particulate sulfur and visibility levels in the Grand Canyon

Grand Canyon National Park (GCNP) is a mandatory Class I federal area that is afforded visibility protection under the Federal Clean Air Act. In this paper, we have examined the effects on visibility and particulate sulfur (Sp) at GCNP as a result of reducing sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions by 90% from the Navajo Generating Station (NGS). Scrubbers were retrofitted to each of the three units at NGS during 1997, 1998, and 1999. The Inter-agency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments aerosol network database affords us an opportunity to examine trends in Sp and extinction both prescrubber and postscrubber. The NGS impacts GCNP primarily during the winter (December to February). During winter, at times, there are fogs, stratus, and high-relative humidity in the Grand Canyon. When the NGS plume interacts with these fogs and stratus, rapid conversion of SO2 to Sp can occur. A variety of analytical techniques were used, including cumulative frequency plots of Sp and extinction, and chemical mass balance and tracer source apportionment analysis. We also deployed P value statistical analysis of "extreme" Sp values. Before scrubbers were installed, values of Sp approaching 2 microg/m3 were occasionally observed. Because scrubbers have been installed, high levels of Sp have been markedly reduced. Statistical P value analysis suggests that these reductions were significant. Furthermore, we have also observed that Sp has been reduced throughout the cumulative frequency curve during winter by approximately 33% since scrubbers were installed. By contrast, during summer when the NGS impact on the Canyon is minimal, there has been only a relatively small decrease in Sp.     

Second generation chemical mass balance source apportionment of sulfur oxides and sulfate at the Grand Canyon during the Project MOHAVE summer intensive

Receptor-based chemical mass balance (CMB) analysis techniques are designed to apportion species that are conserved during pollutant transport using conserved source profiles. The techniques will fail if non-conservative species (or profiles) are not properly accounted for in the CMB model. The straightforward application of the CMB model developed for Project MOHAVE using regional profiles resulted in a significant under-prediction of total sulfate oxides (SOx, SO2 plus fine particulate sulfate) for many samples at Meadview, AZ. In addition, for these samples the concentration of the inert tracer emitted from the MOHAVE Power Project (MPP), ocPDCH, was also under-predicted. A second-generation model has been developed which assumes that separation of particles and SO2 can occur in the MPP plume during nighttime stable plume conditions. This second-generation CMB model accounts for all SOx present at the various receptor sites. In addition, the concentrations of ocPDCH and the presence of other inert tracers of emission from regional sources are accurately predicted. The major source of SOx at Meadview was the MPP, but the major source of sulfate at this site was the Las Vegas urban area. At Hopi Point in the Grand Canyon, the Baja California region (Imperial Valley and northwestern Mexico) was the major source of both SOx and sulfate.     

Fine particulate chemical composition and light extinction at Meadview, AZ

The concentration of fine particulate nitrate, sulfate, and carbonaceous material was measured for 12-hr day-night samples using diffusion denuder samplers during the Project Measurement of Haze and Visibility Effects (MOHAVE) July to August 1992 Summer Intensive study at Meadview, AZ, just west of Grand Canyon National Park. Organic material was measured by several techniques. Only the diffusion denuder method measured the semivolatile organic material. Fine particulate sulfate and nitrate (using denuder technology) determined by various groups agreed. Based on the various collocated measurements obtained during the Project MOHAVE study, the precision of the major fine particulate species was +/- 0.6 microg/m3 organic material, +/- 0.3 microg/m3 ammonium sulfate, and +/- 0.07 microg/m3 ammonium nitrate. Data were also available on fine particulate crustal material, fine and coarse particulate mass from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments sampling system, and relative humidity (RH), light absorption, particle scattering, and light extinction measurements from Project MOHAVE. An extinction budget was obtained using mass scattering coefficients estimated from particle size distribution data. Literature data were used to estimate the change in the mass scattering coefficients for the measured species as a function of RH and for the absorption of light by elemental carbon. Fine particulate organic material was the principal particulate contributor to light extinction during the study period, with fine particulate sulfate as the second most important contributor. During periods of highest light extinction, contributions from fine particulate organic material, sulfate, and light-absorbing carbon dominated the extinction of light by particles. Particle light extinction was dominated by sulfate and organic material during periods of lowest light extinction. Combination of the extinction data and chemical mass balance analysis of sulfur oxides sources in the region indicate that the major anthropogenic contributors to light extinction were from the Los Angeles, CA, and Las Vegas, NV, urban areas. Mohave Power Project associated secondary sulfate was a negligible contributor to light extinction.     

Second Generation Chemical Mass Balance Source Apportionment of Sulfur Oxides and Sulfate at the Grand Canyon during the Project MOHAVE Summer Intensive

ABSTRACT

Receptor-based chemical mass balance (CMB) analysis techniques are designed to apportion species that are conserved during pollutant transport using conserved source profiles. The techniques will fail if non-conservative species (or profiles) are not properly accounted for in the CMB model. The straightforward application of the CMB model developed for Project MOHAVE using regional profiles resulted in a significant under-prediction of total sulfate oxides (SO_x, SO₂ plus fine particulate sulfate) for many samples at Meadview, AZ. In addition, for these samples the concentration of the inert tracer emitted from the MOHAVE Power Project (MPP), ocPDCH, was also under-predicted. A second-generation model has been developed which assumes that separation of particles and SO₂ can occur in the MPP plume during nighttime stable plume conditions. This second-generation CMB model accounts for all SO_x present at the various receptor sites. In addition, the concentrations of ocPDCH and the presence of other inert tracers of emission from regional sources are accurately predicted. The major source of SO_x at Meadview was the MPP, but the major source of sulfate at this site was the Las Vegas urban area. At Hopi Point in the Grand Canyon, the Baja California region (Imperial Valley and northwestern Mexico) was the major source of both SO_x and sulfate.     

Fine Particulate Chemical Composition and Light Extinction at Meadview,AZ

Abstract

The concentration of fine particulate nitrate, sulfate, and carbonaceous material was measured for 12-hr day-night samples using diffusion denuder samplers during the Project Measurement of Haze and Visibility Effects (MOHAVE) July to August 1992 Summer Intensive study at Meadview, AZ, just west of Grand Canyon National Park. Organic material was measured by several techniques. Only the diffusion denuder method measured the semivolatile organic material. Fine particulate sulfate and nitrate (using denuder technology) determined by various groups agreed. Based on the various collocated measurements obtained during the Project MOHAVE study, the precision of the major fine particulate species was ±0.6 μg/m³ organic material, ±0.3 μg/m³ ammonium sulfate, and ±0.07 μg/m³ ammonium nitrate. Data were also available on fine particulate crustal material, fine and coarse particulate mass from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments sampling system, and relative humidity (RH), light absorption, particle scattering, and light extinction measurements from Project MOHAVE. An extinction budget was obtained using mass scattering coefficients estimated from particle size distribution data. Literature data were used to estimate the change in the mass scattering coefficients for the measured species as a function of RH and for the absorption of light by elemental carbon. Fine particulate organic material was the principal particulate contributor to light extinction during the study period, with fine particulate sulfate as the second most important contributor. During periods of highest light extinction, contributions from fine particulate organic material, sulfate, and light-absorbing carbon dominated the extinction of light by particles. Particle light extinction was dominated by sulfate and organic material during periods of lowest light extinction. Combination of the extinction data and chemical mass balance analysis of sulfur oxides sources in the region indicate that the major anthropogenic contributors to light extinction were from the Los Angeles, CA, and Las Vegas, NV, urban areas. Mohave Power Project associated secondary sulfate was a negligible contributor to light extinction.     

A modeling study of visibility in the Grand Canyon

Using a backward version of the Monte Carlo radiative transfer model, radiance values in the Grand Canyon were simulated to within the precision of 10%. The contiguous spectral contrast was introduced to distinguish between adjacent areas of the same target and compared to the apparent spectral contrast. The contiguous spectral contrast is a valuable tool in evaluating visibility because in some cases, the target became more distinguishable when viewed against the sky while the target features became less distinguishable. Average equilibrium radiance values were calculated and incorporated into the Koschmieder estimate; the Koschmieder estimate was deemed to be of limited value in the Grand Canyon because of the violation of the assumptions used to derive the estimate.It was shown that apparent spectral contrasts determined from first order scattering results were within 10% of these contrasts determined from multiple order scattering results. However, higher order scattering must be considered when radiance values are calculated for the Grand Canyon scene.     

On a Strategy for Reducing Short-range Daytime Ground Level Concentrations Due to Emissions from Very Tall Stacks

Abstract

Airborne fine particle sulfur data from the summer intensive of Project MOHAVE (Measurement of Haze and Visual Effects) was analyzed by the Receptor Model Applied to Patterns in Space (RMAPS) model, a novel multivariate receptor-oriented model that applies to secondary and primary species. The sulfur data from 17 sites were found to be well predicted by three spatial patterns interpreted as sources along the valley of the Colorado River; transport from sources located to the southwest; and transport from sources located to the southeast. The model was tested by using parameters derived from the 17-site data set to apportion sulfur for six sites that were not part of the original data set. The sulfur apportionment for these six sites was in agreement with the original apportionment and the physical interpretation of the spatial patterns given above. The effects of systematic and random error on the sulfur apportionment were estimated. The amount of sulfur associated with the Colorado River valley sources was rather insensitive to both types of error. For the two sites in the Grand Canyon National Park, the fraction of total particulate sulfur from the Colorado River valley source is estimated to be in the range of 27-65% at Meadview and 11-28% at Hopi Point.     

Directional biases in back trajectories caused by model and input data

Back trajectory analyses are often used for source attribution estimates in visibility and other air quality studies. Several models and gridded meteorological datasets are readily available for generation of trajectories. The Big Bend Regional Aerosol and Visibility Observational (BRAVO) tracer study of July to October 1999 provided an opportunity to evaluate trajectory methods and input data against tracer concentrations, particulate data, and other source attribution techniques. Results showed evidence of systematic biases between the results of different back trajectory model and meteorological input data combinations at Big Bend National Park during the BRAVO. Most of the differences were because of the choice of meteorological data used as input to the trajectory models. Different back trajectories also resulted from the choice of trajectory model, primarily because of the different mechanisms used for vertical placement of the trajectories. No single model or single meteorological data set was found to be superior to the others, although rawinsonde data alone are too sparse in this region to be used as the only input data, and some combinations of model and input data could not be used to reproduce known attributions of tracers and simulated sulfate.     

Clean Air Corridors: A Geographic and

Meteorological factors, pollutant emissions, and geographic regions related to transport of low optical extinction coefficient air to Grand Canyon National Park were examined. Back trajectories were generated by two models, the Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Model (ATAD) and an approach using the Nested Grid Model output for a Lagrangian particle transport model (NGM/ CAPITA). Meteorological information along the trajectories was analyzed for its relationship to visibility at the Grand Canyon. Case studies considered days with anomalously clean air from the southwest and dirty air from the northwest. Clean air was most frequently from the north and northwest, rarely from the south. Low emissions, high ventilation and washout by precipitation was associated with clean air. All clean days with transport from the Los Angeles area had upper-level low pressure over the region with high ventilation and usually abundant precipitation. The dirtiest days with transport from the northwest were affected by forest fires.     

The Sixty-Sixth Annual Meeting of the Air Pollution Control Association

Abstract

The U.S. Clean Air Act, amended in 1990, mandated the establishment of the Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission (GCVTC). The commission is required to submit a report to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency addressing visibility issues in the region, including "the establishment of clean air corridors, in which additional restrictions on increases in emissions may be appropriate to protect visibility in affected Class I areas." This paper presents a methodology to identify candidate geographic areas for consideration for Clean Air Corridor (CAC) status for Colorado Plateau Class I areas. The methodology uses thousands of model determined trajectories over a five year period (1988 to 1992) to indicate the paths taken by air that arrives during clean air conditions at Class I areas. These clean air back-trajectories identify upwind areas where pollution emissions could jeopardize currently pristine visibility. Using this methodology, six candidate areas are identified, ranging in size from 75,000 to 506,000 square miles, and permitting varying levels of visibility protection for clean air days at Grand Canyon, Canyonlands, and Petrified Forest National Parks. Assuming effective emissions management of the CAC, the larger the CAC, the greater the visibility protection during clean air conditions.     

Evidence of enhanced atmospheric ammoniacal nitrogen in Hells Canyon national recreation area: implications for natural and cultural resources

Agriculture releases copious fertilizing pollutants to air sheds and waterways of the northwestern United States. To evaluate threats to natural resources and historic rock paintings in remote Hells Canyon, Oregon and Idaho, deposition of ammonia (NH3), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and hydrogen sulfide (H2S) at five stations along 60 km of the Snake River valley floor were passively sampled from July 2002 through June 2003, and ozone data and particulate chemistry were obtained from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) station at Hells Canyon. NH3 concentrations were high; biweekly averages peaked at 5-19 ppb in spring and summer and the nutrient-laden Snake River is a likely source. Fine particulate ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3) averaged 2.6 microg/m3 during the 20% of worst visibility days with winter drainage of air masses from the Snake River Basin and possibly long distance transport from southern California. Other pollutants were within background ranges. NH3 is corrosive to clay-based pictographs; nitrogen deposition can alter natural biotic communities and terrestrial ecosystem processes at levels reported here.     

The Development of a Model to Examine Source-Receptor Relationships for Visibility on the Colorado Plateau

This paper describes the development and application of the Visibility and Haze in the Western Atmosphere (VISHWA) model to understand the source-receptor relationships that govern chemical species relevant to visibility degradation in the western United States. The model was developed as part of a project referred to as Visibility Assessment for Regional Emission Distributions (VARED), the objective of which is to estimate the contributions of various geographical regions, compounds, and emission

sources to light scattering and absorption by particles on the Colorado Plateau.

The VISHWA model is a modified version of a comprehensive Eulerian model, known as the Acid Deposition and Oxidant Model.1 The modifications were designed to obtain the computational efficiency required to simulate a one-year period at about 1/25th of real time, and at the same time incorporate mechanistic features relevant to realistic modeling of the fate and transport of visibility degrading species. The modifications included use of a condensed chemical mechanism; incorporation of reactions to simulate the formation of secondary organic particles; and use of a semi-Lagrangian advection scheme to preserve concentration peaks during advection.

The model was evaluated with 1992 air quality data from Project MOHAVE (Measurements of Haze and Visual Effects) intensive experiments. An important conclusion of this evaluation is that aqueous-phase oxidation of SO2 to sulfate in nonprecipitating clouds makes a significant contribution to observed sulfate levels during winter as well as summer. Model estimates of ambient sulfate

for the winter intensive were within a factor of 2 of the observations for 75% of the values. The corresponding statistic for the summer intensive was 90%. Model estimates of carbon were within a factor of 2 of the limited set of observations.